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Data Result
Profit Favorable Unfavorable
Market Market EMV Minimum Maximum
Probability 0.5 0.5 Coefficient
Large Plant 200,000 (180,000) 10,000 (180,000) 200,000
Small Plant 100,000 (20,000) 40,000 (20,000) 100,000
Do nothing - - - - -
Maximum 40,000 - 200,000
Table of Regret (regret adalah nilai di mana harapan tidak sesuai dengan kenyataan; '0' adalah Tidak Menyesal)
Favorable Unfavorable
Market Market
Probability 0.5 0.5 Expected Maximum
Large Plant - 180,000 90,000 180,000
Small Plant 100,000 20,000 60,000 100,000
Do nothing 200,000 - 100,000 200,000
Minimum 60,000 100,000
Keputusan:
1 Dengan model Maximax, buat Large Plant
2 Dengan model Maximin, Do Nothing
3 Dengan model Criterion of Realism, buat Large Plant
4 Dengan model Equally Like, buat Small Plant
5 Dengan model Minimax Regret, buat Small Plant
Hurwicz
0.8
124,000
76,000
124,000
h Tidak Menyesal)
Bayes Theorem for Thompson Lumber Example