CARIBBEAN ADVANCED PROFICIENCY

EXAMINATION
(C.A.P.E)

Applied Mathematics Unit 1

Candidate’s Name: Shawayne Henry, Shanomae Milling, Bibi Fareada Khan

Candidate No: 090046
School: St. Rose’s High School
School Code: 090046
Territory: Guyana
Year of Examination: 2019

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CONTENTS PAGE

CONTENTS PAGE

Project Title
3

Purpose Of Project
4

Method Of Data Collection 5

Presentation Of Data 6-8

Analysis Of Data 9-17

Discussion Of Findings 18-19

Conclusion 20

Reference / Bibliography
21

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 PROJECT TITLE

Regression Analysis on the productivity of the gold mining Industry in Guyana.

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 PURPOSE OF PROJECT

This project aims to investigate the relationship between the Annual Production of the Gold

Mining Industry and the Annual Export of Gold in Guyana. This topic is relevant and worth

investigating since gold is one of Guyana’s main natural resources. Hence, the country depends

heavily on the revenue generated from the gold mining industries.

The variable used were as follows:

Controlled: Data gathered, which were Guyana’s gold production and exportation quantities for

each year.

Responding: The relationship between the quantity of gold produced and the quantity of gold

exported.

Manipulated: The years data were collected for.

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 METHOD OF DATA COLLECTION

The gold export data used in this project was retrieved from the Bank of Guyana 2018 Annual

Report on the 18th March, 2019 while the data for Guyana’s gold production was obtained from

Journal entries from The Senior Economist at Guyana Geology and Mines Commission on the

19th March, 2019.

The researcher after analysing the data when it was obtained, saved it on a computer as well as

transferred the information onto a flash drive as a means of backup in the case the information

was deleted or was not accessed easily.

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 PRESENTATION OF DATA

YEAR 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017

PRODUCTION 260,387 305,178 308,438 363,083 438,645 481,103 387,507 451,059 712,707 653,754

(OUNCES)

EXPORT 250,751 311,884 302,654 347,850 455,072 482,526 385,682 448,247 677,788 664,848

(OUNCES)

TABLE SHOWING VALUES IN OUNCES OF GOLD PRODUCED IN AND EXPROTED FROM GUYANA DURING THE

PERIOD 2008 TO 2017.

Sources: Bank of Guyana 2018 Annual Report

Senior Economist, Guyana Geology and Mines Commission

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 GOLD PRODUCTION FROM 2008 TO 2017
800,000

700,000

GOLD PRODUCTION (OUNCES)

600,000

500,000

400,000

300,000

200,000

100,000

0
2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017
YEAR

FIGURE 1: COLUMN CHART ILLUSTRATING GUYANA’S GOLD PRODUCTION, IN OUNCES,

FOR THE PERIOD 2008 TO 2017.

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 GOLD EXPORT FROM 2008 TO 2017
800,000

700,000

GOLD EXPORT (OUNCES)

600,000

500,000

400,000

300,000

200,000

100,000

0
2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017
YEAR

FIGURE 2: LINE GRAPH ILLUSTRATING GUYANA’S GOLD EXPORT, IN OUNCES,

FOR THE PERIOD 2008 TO 2017.

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 ANALYSIS OF DATA

 The Pearson’s Product Moment Correlation Coefficient

Production of Gold (x) Export of Gold (y) Xy x² y²

260387 250751 65292300637 67801389769 62876064001
305178 311884 95180135352 93133611684 97271629456
308438 302654 93349994452 95133999844 91599443716
363083 347850 1.26298E+11 1.31829E+11 1.21E+11
438645 455072 1.99615E+11 1.92409E+11 2.07091E+11
481103 482526 2.32145E+11 2.3146E+11 2.32831E+11
387507 385682 1.49454E+11 1.50162E+11 1.48751E+11
451059 448247 2.02186E+11 2.03454E+11 2.00925E+11
712707 677788 4.83064E+11 5.07951E+11 4.59397E+11
653754 664848 4.34647E+11 4.27394E+11 4.42023E+11
Σx=4361861 Σy=4327302 Σxy=2.08123E+12 Σx2=2.10073E+12 Σy²=2.06376E+12
THE TABLE ABOVE SHOWS THE NECESSARY INFORMATION FOR THE CALCULATION OF THE

CORRELATION COEFFICIENT AND REGRESSION LINES.

𝑛Σ𝑥𝑦 − Σ𝑥Σ𝑦
r=
√[𝑛Σ𝑥 2 − (Σ𝑥)2 ][𝑛Σ𝑦 2 − (Σ𝑦)2 ]

(10)(2.081x1012 ) − (4361861)(4327302)
r=
√[(10)(2.101x1012 ) − 43618612 ][(10)(2.064x1012 ) − 43273022 ]

r = 0.99277

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 The Least Squares Regression Line of Y on X
𝑦 = 𝑎 + 𝑏𝑥

𝑛Σ𝑥𝑦 − Σ𝑥Σ𝑦
𝑏=
𝑛Σ𝑥 2 − (Σ𝑥)2

(10)(2.081x1012 ) − (4361861)(4327302)
𝑏=
(10)(2.101x1012 ) − 43618612

𝑏 = 0.9752

Σ𝑦 − 𝑏Σ𝑥
𝑎=
𝑛

(4327302) − (0.9752)(4361861)
𝑎=
10

𝑎 = 7361.515

𝑦 = 7361.515 + 0.9752𝑥

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 The Least Squares Regression Line of Y on X
800000

700000 y = 0.9752x+ 7361.515

600000
GOLD EXPORTS (OUNCES)

500000

400000

300000

200000

100000

0
0 100000 200000 300000 400000 500000 600000 700000 800000
GOLD PRODUCTION (OUNCES)

FIGURE 3: THE GRAPH ABOVE SHOWS THE LEAST SQUARES REGRESSION LINE OF Y ON X.

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  The Least Squares Regression Line of X on Y

𝑥 = 𝑐 + 𝑑𝑦

𝑛Σ𝑥𝑦 − Σ𝑥Σ𝑦
𝑑=
𝑛Σ𝑦 2 − (Σ𝑦)2

(10)(2.081x1012 ) − (4361861)(4327302)
𝑑=
(10)(2.064x1012 ) − 43273022

𝑑 = 1.0107

Σ𝑥 − 𝑑Σ𝑦
𝑐=
𝑛

(4361861) − (1.0107)(4327302)
𝑐=
10

𝑐 = −1174.31

𝑥 = −1174.31 + 1.0107𝑦

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 Least Squares Regression Line of X on Y
800000

700000
x = 1.010y - 1174.31

600000
GOLD PRODUCTION(OUNCES)

500000

400000

300000

200000

100000

0
0 100000 200000 300000 400000 500000 600000 700000 800000
GOLD EXPORTS(OUNCES)

FIGURE 4: THE GRAPH ABOVE SHOWS THE LEAST SQUARES REGRESSION LINE OF X ON Y.

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  The Chi-Square Test for Independence of Two Variables

H0: There is no relationship between gold production and gold export in Guyana

H1: There is a relationship between gold production and gold export in Guyana

Year Production Export Row Total

2008 260387 250751 511138

2009 305178 311884 617062

2010 308438 302654 611092

2011 363083 347850 710933

2012 438645 455072 893717

2013 481103 482526 963629

2014 387507 385682 773189

2015 451059 448247 899306

2016 712707 677788 1390495

2017 653754 664848 1318602

Column Total 4361861 4327302 8689163

THE CONTINGENCY TABLE ABOVE SHOWS THE GOLD PRODUCTION AND EXPORT IN

GUYANA OVER A TEN YEAR PERIOD AND THEIR ROW AND COLUMN TOTALS.

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 Observed Values (O) Expected Values (E) (𝑶 − 𝑬)𝟐
𝑬

260387 256585.46 56.323

305178 309758.11 67.722

308438 306761.23 9.165

363083 356880.28 107.806

438645 448635.77 222.487

481103 483730.80 14.275

387507 388132.08 1.007

451059 451441.38 0.324

712707 698012.68 309.34

653754 661923.21 100.821

250751 254552.54 56.773

311884 307303.89 68.263

302654 304330.77 9.238

347850 354052.72 108.667

455072 445081.23 224.26

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 482526 479898.20 14.389

385682 385056.92 1.015

448247 447864.62 0.326

677788 692482.32 311.81

664848 656678.79 101.627

(𝑂 − 𝐸)2
Σ = 1785.638
𝐸

𝝌2 test statistic = 1785.638

THE TABLE ABOVE SHOWS THE EXPECTED AND OBSERVED VALUES OF GOLD

PRODUCTION AND GOLD EXPORTS.

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 Acceptance
Region Critical Region

0.95
0.05

9 (0.95) = 16.92

FIGURE 5: THE CHI SQUARED DISTRIBUTION

Since the 𝜒 2 test statistic falls within the critical region we reject the null hypothesis and

conclude that at a 5% significance level there is a relationship between the production of gold

and the export of gold in Guyana.

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 DICUSSION OF FINDINGS

According to the Pearson’s Moment Correlation Coefficient calculated, there was a very strong,

positive relationship between gold production and gold export. The correlation coefficient

calculated was 0.9952, which suggests that gold production and gold export in Guyana are

almost perfectly correlated. Being perfectly correlated means that as one variable increases, the

other variable also increases.

In addition, the least squares regression line of y on x was calculated to provide an equation that

allows us to determine the gold export (y) when given a known value for the gold production (x).

The regression coefficient of the least squares regression line of y on x was calculated to be

0.9801. This regression coefficient implies that for every increase in gold export, there is a

0.9801 increase in gold production. Since 0.9801 is approximately equal to 1, the regression

coefficient is effectively saying that for every unit increase in gold export, there is approximately

a unit increase in gold production. This further suggests that gold production and gold export are

dependent of each other.

In comparison, the least squares regression line of x on y was calculated to provide an equation

that allows us to determine the gold production (x) when a given a known value for the gold

export (y). The regression coefficient calculated was 1.0107, which is also approximately equal

to one. As such, for every unit increase in gold production, there is approximately a unit increase

in gold export.

Moreover, to further solidify the fact that gold export and gold production were not independent,

a chi squared test for independence was undertaken at the 5% significance level. As indicated by

the conclusion of the one tailed hypothesis test, the chi square test statistic fell within the critical

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region of the graph, it was concluded that at the 5% confidence level, gold production and gold

export in Guyana were closely associated. While this association cannot be determined by the chi

square test, the association was proven to not be independent as indicated by the three previous

tests.

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 CONCLUSION

It can be concluded that there was a direct relationship between gold production and export in

Guyana. This relation was found using The Person’s Moment Correlation Coefficient, where

there was a very strong, positive relationship between gold production and gold export. The

correlation coefficient calculated was 0.9952, which suggests that gold production and gold

export in Guyana are almost perfectly correlated. This was further solidify using the Chi Squared

test for Independence, where the null hypothesis was rejected, and it was concluded at a 5%

significance level that there was an association between Guyana Gold Production and Export.

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 BIBLIOOGRAPHY

 Concise Course in Advanced Level Statistics

By: J. Crawshaw & J. Chambers

REFERENCE

 https://nre.gov.gy/guyana-gold-board/

 http://www.stat.yale.edu/Courses/1997-98/101/linreg.htm

 https://www.statisticshowto.datasciencecentral.com/probability-and-statistics/correlation-

coefficient-formula/

 https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Pearson_correlation_coefficient

 https://stattrek.com/chi-square-test/independence.aspx

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