List of Fallacies

WHAT IS A FALLACY?

A fallacy is the use of invalid or otherwise faulty reasoning, or "wrong moves” in the construction of
an argument.

APPEAL TO PROBABILITY

An appeal to probability (or appeal to possibility) is the logical fallacy of taking

something for granted because it would probably be the case (or might possibly be
the case).

A fallacious appeal to possibility:

Something can go wrong (premise).
Therefore, something will go wrong (invalid conclusion).

Murphy's Law is an adage or epigram that is typically stated as: "Anything that can go
wrong will go wrong".
ARGUMENT FROM FALLACY

Argument from fallacy is the formal fallacy of analyzing an argument and inferring
that, since it contains a fallacy, its conclusion must be false. It is also called argument
to logic (argumentum ad logicam), the fallacy fallacy, the fallacist's fallacy, and the bad
reasons fallacy.

Tom: All cats are animals. Ginger is an animal. Therefore, Ginger is a cat.
Bill: You have just fallaciously affirmed the consequent. You are incorrect.
Therefore, Ginger is not a cat.

Tom: I speak English. Therefore, I am English.

Bill: Americans and Canadians, among others, speak English too. By assuming
that speaking English and being English always go together, you have just
committed the package-deal fallacy. You are incorrect. Therefore, you are not
English.
Both of Bill's rebuttals are arguments from fallacy. Ginger may or may not be a cat,
and Tom may or may not be English. The fact that Tom's argument was fallacious is
not, in itself, sufficient proof that his conclusion is false.

BASE RATE FALLACY

The base rate fallacy, also called base rate neglect or base rate bias, is a formal fallacy.
If presented with related base rate information (i.e. generic, general information) and
specific information (information pertaining only to a certain case), the mind tends to
ignore the former and focus on the latter.

In a city of 1 million inhabitants let there be 100 terrorists and 999,900 non-terrorists.
To simplify the example, it is assumed that all people present in the city are inhabitants.
Thus, the base rate probability of a randomly selected inhabitant of the city being a
terrorist is 0.0001, and the base rate probability of that same inhabitant being a non-
terrorist is 0.9999. In an attempt to catch the terrorists, the city installs an alarm system
with a surveillance camera and automatic facial recognition software.
The software has two failure rates of 1%:

 The false negative rate: If the camera scans a terrorist, a bell will ring 99% of the
time, and it will fail to ring 1% of the time.
 The false positive rate: If the camera scans a non-terrorist, a bell will not ring 99% of
the time, but it will ring 1% of the time.
Suppose now that an inhabitant triggers the alarm. What is the chance that the person
is a terrorist?