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Chart Analysis, Trend lines, Support & Bull Spread, Bear Spread
Resistance Ratio Spreads
Technical Indicators Strangles & Straddles
MACD based Stock trading strategy Portfolio Hedging, Additional Income
Introduction to Futures, Options Generation Strategies
Technological
Changes
Demographic Regulatory
Changes Changes
Social
Changes
© 2018 Tarachand Dewangan
Macroeconomic Influences on Industry
Growth, Profitability, and Risk
Availability of
Interest Rates Credit
Economic
Inflation
Growth Industry
Growth,
Profitability,
and Risk
© 2018 Tarachand Dewangan
Ratio Analysis
Based on estimates,
. assumptions & forecasts – You are at the mercy of
what management says
Fundamental
.
Analysis does not
solve our purpose for trading
Market
Human trends and History
behavior is patterns tends to
Price moves
often erratic reflect repeat itself
in trends
and driven irrational and are thus
by emotion human predictable.
behavior.
Sell Point
Declining Trend
Buy Point Channel Buy Point
Trough
Trough
© 2018 Tarachand Dewangan
Charts, Trend lines,
Support/Resistance
• Often referred to as
“Japanese Candles” because
the Japanese would use
them to analyze the price of
rice contracts
• Secondary Trend
A Trading Range.
© 2018 Tarachand Dewangan
Kinds of Trends
Breakout
Support and resistance lines indicate
likely ends of trends.
The most commonly used averages are of 20, 50, 100 and
200 days
There are, literally, hundreds of technical indicators used to generate buy and sell signals.
Applying right combination of indicators at right time and on right type of trends gives
profitable results
Application:
Buy when the Oscillator (either %K or %D) falls below a specific level
(e.g., 20) and then rises above that level.
Sell when the Oscillator rises above a specific level (e.g., 80) and then falls
below that level.
Buy when the %K line rises above the %D line and sell when the %K line
falls below the %D line.
• Objective:
– A indicator that shows comparative price strength within
a single security.
– It can be used for Chart formations, Support/Resistance,
Failure Swings and divergence.
• Application:
- Positive and negative divergence analysis
- Oscillator to gauge overbought/oversold levels
© 2018 Tarachand Dewangan
RSI Example Chart
Positive divergence
Negative divergence
– As a result, the MACD offers the best of both worlds: trend following and
momentum.
• Application:
– Buy signal is generated when the MACD line ( Solid ) is crossing the Signal
line from below.
– Sell signal is generated when the MACD line is crossing the signal line
from above.
© 2018 Tarachand Dewangan
What MACD Does
• A 9-day EMA of the MACD Line is plotted with the indicator to act as a
signal line and identify turns.
• The MACD Line oscillates above and below the zero line, which is also
known as the centerline.
• When MACD line is in buy mode and above zero line it indicates strong
momentum on the up side.
• When MACD line is in Sell mode and below zero line it indicates strong
momentum on the down side.
Strategy Development
Trend is Friend
Trailing of Trade
Stock Selection
Write down money management and trading technique - read it before starting the
day
Position Sizing
Stop loss importance – Devising stop loss, Maintain 1:3 or min 1:2 ration between
Profits and Stop Loss
Pyramid Trades
A product whose value is derived from the value of one or more basic variables, called
bases (underlying asset, index or reference rate ), in a contractual manner. The
underlying asset can be equity , forex commodity or any other asset.
Futures
An agreement between two parties to buy or sell an
asset at a certain time in the future at a certain price.
Standardized exchange-traded contracts.
Options
Stock Futures are the contracts for which underlying is the cash stock. Ex – RIL, HDFC
For example: BSE may launch a future contract on "BSE Sensitive Index" and NSE may
launch a future contract on "S&P CNX NIFTY".
Speculation
1. Bullish Index, long Nifty futures
2. Bearish Index, short Nifty futures
Arbitrage
1. Have funds, lend them to the market
2. Have securities, lend them to the market
Unlimited upside & downside for both Limited downside (to the extent of
buyer and seller. premium paid) for buyer and unlimited
upside. For seller (writer) of the option,
profits are limited whereas losses can be
unlimited.
Futures contracts prices are affected Prices of options are however, affected by
mainly by the prices of the underlying a)prices of the underlying asset, b)time
asset remaining for expiry of the contract and
c)volatility of the underlying asset.
© 2018 Tarachand Dewangan
Options
Options are instruments whereby the right is given by the option seller to the option buyer
to buy or sell a specific asset at a specific price on or before a specific date.
• Option Seller - One who gives/writes the option. He has an obligation to perform, in case
option buyer desires to exercise his option.
• Option Buyer - One who buys the option. He has the right to exercise the option but no
obligation.
• Call Option - Option to buy.
• Put Option - Option to sell.
• American Option - An option which can be exercised anytime on or before the expiry date.
• Strike Price/ Exercise Price - Price at which the option is to be exercised.
• Expiration Date - Date on which the option expires.
• European Option - An option which can be exercised only on expiry date.
• Exercise Date - Date on which the option gets exercised by the option holder/buyer.
• Option Premium - The price paid by the option buyer to the option seller for granting the
option. © 2018 Tarachand Dewangan
The strike price
A call owner may exercise a call when the current market price is higher than the fixed
strike.
A put owner may exercise a put when the current market price is lower than the fixed
strike.
Expiration
This is the third Saturday of the expiration month; the last trading day is the third
Friday of expiration month.
After expiration, every option that was not closed or exercised becomes worthless.
Call Option Put Option
Option Buyer Buys the right to buy the Buys the right to sell the
underlying asset at the Strike underlying asset at the Strike
Price Price
Option Seller Has the obligation to sell the Has the obligation to buy the
underlying asset to the option underlying asset from the
holder at the Strike Price option holder at the Strike
Price
Option pricing
Factors contributing value of an option
price of the underlying stock
time until expiration
volatility of underlying stock price
cash dividend
prevailing interest rate.
Intrinsic value: difference between an in-the-money
option’s strike price and current market price
Time value: speculative value.
Option Price Components
Option prices to security price
Option prices - time to expiry
Option price – Volatility of stock price
Implied Volatility
Implied volatility is the second most important price determinant of stock options
other than the price of the stock itself.
The higher the Implied Volatility, the more the stock is expected to move and hence
a greater possibility that the underlying asset will move in your favor.
Implied Volatility
The lower the Implied Volatility, the more stagnant the stock is expected to be and
hence the lower the possibility that the stock will move in your favor.
The higher the implied volatility of the underlying asset, the higher the extrinsic value
of its options will be and the more expensive those options become due to a greater
possibility that it will end up in your favor profitably.
Implied Volatility
Mathematically, the factors that affect implied volatility are the exercise price, the
riskless rate of return, maturity date and the price of the option.
Implied volatility tends to rise in a bear market and drop in a bull market. In a bear
market, investors and traders alike usually rush into put options for speculation
or hedging purpose all at once while in a bull market, the buying of call options tend
to be more spread out and less "hurried".
More Option “Moneyness”
“At the Money” options is a term used for options when the stock price and the strike
price are about the same.
Option risks / Option Greeks
Negative crossover in MACD, weekly chart. Sell in each rally based on Stochastic
Head & Shoulder Pattern, breakdown below neckline
Breakdown after a Trading Channel, or a long consolidation zone
Surge in OI with Price Breakdown, quick short sell opportunity
Negative Divergence in the Oscillators like RSI from a strong resistance area
SAR stands for “stop and reverse,” which is the actual indicator used in the
system. SAR trails price as the trend extends over time.
The indicator is below prices when prices are rising and above prices when
prices are falling. In this regard, the indicator stops and reverses when the price
trend reverses and breaks above or below the indicator.
Parabolic SAR
Parabolic SAR
SAR follows price and can be considered a trend following indicator. Once a
downtrend reverses and starts up, SAR follows prices like a trailing stop. The
stop continuously rises as long as the uptrend remains in place. In other words,
in an uptrend and continuously protects profits as prices advance.
Once price stops rising and reverses below SAR, a downtrend starts and SAR is
above the price. SAR follows prices lower like a trailing stop. The stop
continuously falls as long as the downtrend extends. It continuously protects
profits on short positions
Experience the Market
Bank Nifty Trade Outlook for the day
Hedging: Have stock, sell calls ( reduce cost of holding, risk of losing upside)
BEP
0 S
Stock Price
Loss - Lower Higher
Risk Reward Scenario
Profit +
CR BEP
0 S
Stock Price
Loss - Lower Higher
0
S
DR BEP
CR
BEP
S
0
Stock Price
Loss -
Lower Higher
Makes profit if the Stock price at expiration < Strike price + premium
Advanced Strategies
Six option strategies are especially interesting in the way they allow you to leverage capital,
reduce risks, and control shares of stock.
1. Covered call.
2. Ratio write.
3. Variable ratio write.
4. Insurance put.
5. Collar.
6. Synthetic stock.
Combinations, I.
A Long Straddle is formed by a long call and a long put:
Both have the same strike and expiration date.
What is the worst possible value for the underlying at expiration?
In a Short Straddle, one sells the call and sells the put.
Profit
ST
ST
Calendar Spreads:
Use the same strike, but with two different expiration dates.
Can use either calls or puts.
The resulting payoff is curved. This is because one option is still ‘alive’ at the expiration date
of the other.