FORM TP 2005274 @ TEST CODE 02146010

MAY/JUNE 2005

CARIBBEAN EXAMINATIONS COUNCIL

ADVANCED PROFICIENCY EXAMINATION
STATISTICAL ANALYSIS
PAPEROl
2 hours

(16 JUNE 2005 (p.m.))

This examination paper consists of THREE sections: Module 1, Module 2 and Module 3.

Each section consists of 5 questions.

The maximum mark for each question is 40.
The maximum mark for this examination is 120.
This examination consists of 8 printed pages.

INSTRUCTIONS TO CANDIDATES

1. DO NOT open this examination paper until instructed to do so.

2. Answer ALL questions from the THREE sections.

3. Unless otherwise stated in the question, all numerical answers MUST

be given exactly OR to three significant figures as appropriate.

Examination materials:

List of Formulae and Statistical Tables (Revised 2004)

Electronic calculator
Graph Paper
Geometry Set

Copyright © 2004 Caribbean Examinations Council

All rights reserved.

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SECTION A

MODULE 1

Answer ALL questions.

1. (a) State whether EACH of the following is a continuous or discrete variable.

(i) Number of births per day in a hospital

(ii) Mean mass of students per class in a school

(iii) Length of time a person takes to travel from home to work

(iv) Total amount of money spent each month by a household in a supermarket.

[4 marks]

(b) State whether each of the following is a quantitative or qualitative variable.

(i) Price pe r kilogramme of vegetables in a supermarket

(ii ) Number of cars in each household in a di strict

(iii) Home addresses of persons at a workplace

(iv) Names of students in a school. [4 marks]

Total 8 marks

2. (a) Explain the difference between

(i) a population and a sample [2 marks]

(ii) a census and a sample survey. [3 marks]

(b) State TWO differe nt reasons, giving an appropriate example for EACH, why it would be
necessary to conduct a sample survey rathe r than a census. [4 marks]

Total 9 marks

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3. The masses of the 3000 bags of flour produced one day at a packaging plant are summarised in
the following table.

Masses of bags (x grams) 985 <X~ 995 995 <X~ 1005 1005 <X~ 1015

Frequency 51 2760 189

(a) Estimate, by calculation, the

(i) mean mass of bags [3 marks]

(ii) median mass of bags. [4 marks]

(b) State the assumption made about the masses of bags within each class interval when the
estimates in (a) are calculated. [1 mark ]

Total 8 marks

4. The box-and-whisker plot below summarises the number of computers fixed per day by a
technician in one month.

0 5 10 15

Number of computers

(a) Determine the

(i) semi-interquartile range [3 marks]

(ii) range. [2 marks]

(b ) Describe the shape of the distribution. [2 marks]

Total 7 marks

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5. The table below shows the sources of revenue for a chari table organisation du ring 2 003.

R evenue So urce Amount ($)

Annual Fair 20 500

Donations 5 040

Subscriptions 3 6 10

Inte rest 850

(a) State which ONE of the mean, median or mode would be appropriate as a measure of
central tendency for the sources of revenue. [1 mark ]

(b) A pie chart is draw n to illustrate the revenue data for 2003. Calcu late the angle of the
sector w hi ch represents the Annual Fair revenue. [3 marks]

(c) A second pie chart showing the sources of revenue for 2004 is drawn to al low a comparison
between the tota l revenues in 2003 and 2004. Calculate the radius of the pi e chart for
2004, given that the total revenue i n 2004 is $36 300 and the rad ius of the pie chart for
2003 i s 5 em. [4 marks]

Total 8 marks

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SECTION B

MODULE2

Answer ALL questions.

6. T he Venn diagram below shows the probabilities associated w ith three events A, B and C in a
possibility spaceS.

s
A B c

0.01

(a) Determine the value of

( i) P (C) [2 marks]

(ii ) P(Bu C) [2 marks]

(ii i) P(B ') [2 marks]

(b) State w hether A and Care mutually exclusi ve events, gi ving a reason for your answer.
[2 marks]

Total 8 marks

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7. (a) Briefly state FOUR assumptions that are made in modelling the number of trials of an
experiment by a binomial distribution. [4 marks]

(b) For EACH of the variables described below, give ONE reason why a binomial model is
NOT appropriate.

(i) The number of tails recorded when a biased coin is flipped until the first tail is
obtained.

(ii) The number of red bottle caps recorded when bottle caps are selected o ne at a
time, without replacement, from a bag containing red and yellow bottle caps.
The bottl e caps are indistinguishable except for colour. [2 marks]

Total 6 marks

8. A fair coin and a fair six-sided die with faces numbered 1 to 6 are thrown together repeatedly in
a game. If the coin shows a head (H), the score is the number shown on the die. If the coin shows
a tail (7), the score is three times the number on the die.

The possibility space diagram below shows the poss ible scores from one throw of the coi n and
d ie.

H 1 2 3 p 5 6
Coin Score
T q 6 9 12 15 18

1 2 3 4 5 6
Die

(a) State the values of p and q. [2 marks]

(b) Determine the probability that, on one throw of the coin and the die,

(i) the score is 6 OR the coin shows a tail [3 marks]

(ii ) the coin shows a head, given that the score is greater than 5. [4 marks]

Total 9 marks

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9. The vari able Z has a standard normal di stribution N(O, 1). D etermine the value of

(a) ( i) P(Z= 2) [1 mark]

( ii) P(Z < 1.24 1) [1 ma•·k]

( iii) P(Z > 1.162) [3 marks]

( iv) P(-0.23 < Z < 1.05) [3 marks]

(b) k , g iven that P(Z < k) = 0.8028 [1 mark]

Total 9 marks

10. Given that Y - Bin(200, 0.45), use a normal approximation to estimate P( Y = 94) .

Total 8 marks

SECTION C

MODULE3

Answer ALL questions.

11. (a) Let X be a norm al vari able w ith mean 40 and standard deviation 10, and X the mean of 5
random observati ons of X. ame the d istribution of X , gi vi ng the val ues o f i ts parameters.
[4 marks]

(b) The random vari ab le Y has a X2 -distributi on w ith v degrees of freedom.

D etermin e the value o f

( i) v, ifP ( Y > 15.09)= 0.0 10 [1 mark]

(i i) P( Y .$ 7.8 15), i f v =3 [1 mark]

Total 6 marks

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12. It is claimed that the mean of a continuous random variable X is 140. A sample of eight observations
of X is taken and at-test carried out to determine whether the mean of X is actually not 140.

(a) State TWO of the conditions which are necessary for at-test to be valid in this situation.
[2 marks]

(b) Using symbols only, formulate suitable null and alternate hypotheses. [4 marks]

(c) State the number of degrees of freedom. [1 mark]

Total 7 marks

13. (a) Expla in w hat is meant by a '95% confidence interval for a population mean.'
[3 marks]

(b) (i) A random sample of 49 items with sample mean 13 is taken from a normal
distribution with mean J1 and standard deviation 4. Calculate a 95% confidence
interva l for Jl. [5 marks]

(ii) Sixty random samples of 49 items are taken and a 95% confidence interval for 11
is found for each sample. Determine the expected number of intervals that contain
Jl. [2 marks]

Total 10 marks

14. (a) State, and interpret, (in writing), the value of the product moment correlation coefficient r w hen
the regression lines yon x and x on y

(i) coincide and have a positive gradient

(i i) are perpendic ular to each other

(iii) coincide and have a negative gradient. [6 marks]

(b) The regression line yon x, y = 0.95x + 0.4, provides a linear model for the cost, y hundred
dollars, associated with producing x components. G ive a practical interpretation of the
regression coefficie nt 0.95. [2 marks]

Total 8 marks

15. T he random variable Y has distribution Bin(lOO, p). Using a sample value of y = 45, the null
hypothesis p = 0.4 is tested against the alternative hypothesis p > 0.4 at a 1% level of sig nificance.

(a) State the probabili ty of rejecting the null hypothesis when it is true. [1 mark]

(b) Identify the critical region (s). [3 marks]

(c) Calc ul ate the value of the test stati stic. [5 marks]

Total 9 marks

END OF TEST

02 14601 0/CAPE 2005