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Chapter 1
1.1 – Overview
The Futures market is an integral part of the Financial Derivatives world. ‘Derivatives’ as they are called is a security, whose value is derived from another
financial entity referred to as an ‘Underlying Asset’. The underlying asset can be anything a stock, bond, commodity or currency. The financial derivatives have
been around for a long time now. The earliest reference to the application of derivatives in India dates back to 320 BC in ‘Kautilya’s Arthashastra’. It is believed
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that in the ancient Arthashastra (study of Economics) script, Kautilya described the pricing mechanism of the standing crops ready to be harvested at some point
in the future. Apparently he used this method to pay the farmers much in advance, thereby structuring a true ‘forwards contract’.
Given the similarities between the forwards and the futures market, I think the best possible way to introduce the futures market is by first understanding the
‘Forwards market’. The Understanding of Forwards Market would lay a strong foundation for learning the Futures Market.
The forwards contract is the simplest form of derivative. Consider the forwards contract as the older avatar of the futures contract. Both the futures and the
forward contracts share a common transactional structure, except that over the years the futures contracts have become the default choice of a trader. The
forward contracts are still in use, but are limited to a few participants such as the industries and banks. The focus of this chapter is to help you understand the
structure of a typical forwards transaction, after which we will break it down to its elements, and understand its advantages and disadvantages.
One is a jeweler whose job is to design and manufacture jewelry. Let us call him ‘ABC Jewelers’. The other is a gold importer whose job is to sell gold at a
whole sale price to jewelers, let us call him’ XYZ Gold Dealers’.
On 9th Dec 2014, ABC enters into an agreement with XYZ to buy 15 kilograms of gold at a certain purity (say 999 purity) in three months time (9th March
2015). They fix the price of Gold at the current market price, which is Rs.2450/- per gram or Rs.24,50,000/- per kilogram. Hence as per this agreement, on 9th
March 2015, ABC is expected to pay XYZ a sum of Rs.3.675 Crs (24,50,000/Kg*15) in return for the 15 kgs of Gold.
This is a very straightforward and typical business agreement that is prevalent in the market. An agreement of this sort is called a ‘Forwards Contract’ or a
‘Forwards Agreement’.
Do note, the agreement is executed on 9th Dec 2014, hence irrespective of the price of gold 3 months later i.e 9th March 2015, both ABC and XYZ are obligated
to honor the agreement. Before we proceed further, let us understand the thought process of each party and understand what compelled them to enter into this
agreement.
Why do think ABC entered into this agreement? Well, ABC believes the price of gold would go up over the next 3 months, hence they would want to lock in
today’s market price for the gold. Clearly, ABC wants to insulate itself form an adverse increase in gold prices.
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In a forwards contract, the party agreeing to buy the asset at some point in the future is called the “Buyer of the Forwards Contract”, in this case it is ABC
Jewelers.
Likewise, XYZ believes the price of gold would go down over the next 3 months and hence they want to cash in on the high price of gold which is available in
the market today. In a forwards contract, the party agreeing to sell the asset at some point in the future is called the “Seller of the Forwards Contract”, in this
case it is XYZ Gold Dealers.
Both the parties have an opposing view on gold; hence they see this agreement to be in line with their future expectation.
Assume on 9th March 2015, the price of gold (999 purity) is trading at Rs.2700/- per gram. Clearly, ABC Jeweler’s view on the gold price has come true. At the
time of the agreement the deal was valued at Rs 3.67 Crs but now with the increase in Gold prices, the deal is valued at Rs.4.05 Crs. As per the agreement, ABC
Jewelers is entitled to buy Gold (999 purity) from XYZ Gold Dealers at a price they had previously agreed upon i.e Rs.2450/- per gram.
The increase in Gold price impacts both the parties in the following way –
Hence, XYZ Gold Dealers will have to buy Gold from the open market at Rs.2700/- per gram and would have to sell it to ABC Jewelers at the rate of Rs.2450/-
per gram thereby facing a loss in this transaction.
Assume on 9th March 2015, the price of gold (999 purity) is trading at Rs.2050/- per gram. Under such circumstances, XYZ Gold Dealers view on the gold
price has come true. At the time of the agreement the deal was valued at Rs 3.67 Cr but now with the decrease in gold prices, the deal is valued at Rs.3.075 Cr.
However, according to the agreement, ABC Jewelers is obligated to buy Gold (999 purity) from XYZ Gold Dealers at a price they had previously agreed upon
i.e Rs.2450/- per gram.
This decrease in the gold price would impact both the parties in the following way –
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Do note, even though Gold is available at a much cheaper rate in the open market, ABC Jewelers is forced to buy gold at a higher rate from XYZ Gold Dealers
hence incurring a loss.
If on 9th March 2015, the price is the same as on 9th Dec 2014 then neither ABC nor XYZ would benefit from the agreement.
As you can see from the chart above, at Rs.2450/- per gram, there is no financial impact for ABC. However, as per the graph above we can notice that ABC’s
financials are significantly impacted by a directional movement in the gold prices. Higher the price of gold (above Rs.2450/-), higher is ABC’s savings or the
potential profit. Likewise, as and when the gold price lowers (below Rs.2450/-), ABC is obligated to buy gold at a higher rate from XYZ, thereby incurring a
loss.
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At Rs.2450/- per gram, there is no financial impact on XYZ. However as per the graph above, XYZ’s financials are significantly impacted by a directional
movement in the gold prices. As and when the price of gold increases (above Rs.2450/-), XYZ is forced to sell gold at a lower rate, thereby incurring a loss.
However, as and when the price of gold decreases (below Rs.2450/-) XYZ would enjoy the benefit of selling gold at a higher rate, at a time when gold is
available at a lower rate in the market thereby making a profit.
1. Physical Settlement – – The full purchase price is paid by the buyer of a forward contract and the actual asset is delivered by the seller. XYZ buys 15
Kgs of gold from the open market by paying Rs.4.05Crs and would deliver the same to ABC on the receipt of Rs.3.67 Crs. This is called physical
settlement
2. Cash Settlement – In a cash settlement there is no actual delivery or receipt of a security. In cash settlement, the buyer and the seller will simply
exchange the cash difference. As per the agreement, XYZ is obligated to sell Gold at Rs.2450/- per gram to ABC. In other words, ABC pays Rs.3.67 Crs
in return for the 15 Kgs of Gold which is worth Rs.4.05Cr in the open market. However, instead of making this transaction i.e ABC paying Rs.3.67 Crs in
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return for the gold worth Rs.4.05Crs, the two parties can agree to exchange only the cash differential. In this case it would be Rs.4.05 Crs – Rs.3.67 Crs
= Rs.38 Lakhs. Hence XYZ would just pay Rs.38 lakhs to ABC and settle the deal. This is called a cash settlement
We will understand a lot more about settlement at a much later stage, but at this stage you need to be aware that there are basically two basic types of settlement
options available in a Forwards Contract – physical and cash.
1. Liquidity Risk – In our example we have conveniently assumed that, ABC with a certain view on gold finds a party XYZ who has an exact opposite
view. Hence they easily strike a deal. In the real world, this is not so easy. In a real life situation, the parties would approach an investment bank and
discuss their intention. The investment bank would scout the market to find a party who has an opposite view. Of course, the investment bank does this for
a fee.
2. Default Risk/ / Counter party risk – Consider this, assume the gold prices have reached Rs.2700/- at the end of 3 months. ABC would feel proud about
the financial decision they had taken 3 months ago. They are expecting XYZ to pay up. But what if XYZ defaults?
3. Regulatory Risk – The Forwards contract agreement is executed by a mutual consent of the parties involved and there is no regulatory authority
governing the agreement. In the absence of a regulatory authority, a sense of lawlessness creeps in, which in turn increases the incentive to default
4. Rigidity – Both ABC and XZY entered into this agreement on 9th Dec 2014 with a certain view on gold. However what would happen if their view would
strongly change when they are half way through the agreement? The rigidity of the forward agreement is such that, they cannot foreclose the agreement
half way through.
The forward contracts have a few disadvantages and hence future contracts were designed to reduce the risks of the forward agreements.
In India, the Futures Market is a part of a highly vibrant Financial Derivatives Market. During the course of this module we will learn more about the Futures
and methods to efficiently trade this instrument!
7. A variation in the price would have an impact on both the buyer and the seller of the forwards contract
8. Settlement takes place in two ways in a forward contract – Physical and Cash settlement
9. The risk of a forward contract is reduced by a futures contract
10. The core of a forward and futures contract is the same.
Module 4
Chapters
92 comments
Karthik,
I want to understand how short covering in nifty futures makes underlying nifty index move.How it happens?whether arbitrage has a role to play in it.
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Short covering is a term to express the fact that the traders with short position are closing their open positions. When they close their open positions
they simply need to buy back the futures. This means there would be a surge to buy back shares, which would lead to a short rally in the market. As
far as i can imagine, short covering has nothing to do with arbitrage.
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SIVA9 says:
April 2, 2015 at 6:10 am
Hi Karthik,
Short Covering:
Thanks,
Siva.
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True, short covering is when there is fear of increase in prices hence short sellers cover their positions in a panic to save themselves
from booking a loss….by virtue of which the prices starts to increase. This is because when short sellers cover their positions, the need
to buy back shares.
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Hello sir
Can you tell me that I m trading in mcx and yesterday my unrealised profit was -4400, now is this amount deducted from my total account
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value or not for the next day trading starts, my all trades are normal to mis.
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Yes, commodities are futures for which mark to market is applicable and the money will be deducted from your trading account.
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2. Vijay V says:
March 16, 2015 at 1:32 am
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Most welcome!
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sir
why there is no pdf available after module 2 .please provide us
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We are working on converting the content to e-book format. It takes a lot of time, request you to please bear with us in the meanwhile. Thanks.
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not a problem sir , thanks for that this site is very useful for us
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There is an annoying share prompt on the screen that refuses to go even if one shares the page.
Kindly remove as it is preventing smooth reading especially on mobile devices.
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Hi Karthik,
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Thanks for explaining the thing in very plain English with example. I am interested in commodity market but there is no course associated with
commodity and mentioned that “coming soon”. When it is expected to launch the commodity course.
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Dheeeraj – right now the focus is on Options, once options is done we will start with Commodities.
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Hi Karthik,
I just want to trade in Nifty Options. Do I need to read up on all the modules or can I skip a few?
Thanks,
Sahil
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Well, its always good to read up. However, if you are not up for it…then at least read the Options module before you start Options trading.
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lets say i but a lot of nifty50 fut to hold it for a few days. Day 1 i put the stop loss order. now if the SL is not hit, will this order be valid the next day or i
will have to place a different order??
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No, you will have to place a fresh order the next day.
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nice brokerage. study material are awsome . i will open a/c in zerodha . it is abest borkerage company
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Yup.
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Hi tell me about in future trading when we quit on fix contract date or any time pl tell about trading period.
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Hi Karthick,
The writeup is amazing.I am going through all the modules to have more idea and to have solid knowledge
I have a question:
In cash settlement, whether ABC will buy actual gold from open market instead of XYZ ? The difference amount will be paid by XYZ to ABC which is a
profit for ABC in this case ?
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Hi,
I Buy XYZ futures @rs.100 on day 1 and sell it on day 10 at 12pm @rs.120.So my profit is Rs.20 per share.And when i sell it some one has to buy from
me.So after he buy at 12pm price starts to shoot to Rs.122 and he hold it for the day without selling and continue as NRML.In this case did i lose any
money apart from Profit???
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Hello sir,
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And sometime later, to curb the retail participation in derivatives market, they would consider increasing the lot size or only allowing HNI to deal in
derivatives market.
Thank you
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If this happens (increase in trading time), then this is good for scalpers. I personally think increasing lot size is also a good move, as it would curb
excess speculation and encourage investments.
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Hi Karthik,
Few questions
1. Can you short Futures and carry it for more than 1 day i.e Short Delivery of Futures?
2. I don’t find Nifty Pharma F&O neither on NSE or on Zerodha Margin Calculator … However, there is a NiftyPharma a Index, but is there a F&O
which you can trade?
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1) Yes
2) Besides Nifty and Bank Nifty, no other futures are really liquid.
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Thanks Karthik.
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1) lets say i hold 1 contract of SBI fut. Now next day sbi give dividend of say 10 rs per share. so the stock price will fall at the opening. But i hold a
futures contract. what will happen in that case?
2) Also in case of stock split say 1:1 the price will half, does that mean i will now have 2 contract(i had 1 initially).
3) what if the ratio is not 1:1. say 3:1 now as the futures has a fixed lot what will happen in that case?
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1) The futures price will be adjusted to the drop. You will not make any additional profits becuase of the dividend
2) Yes
3) Odd lots will be cash settled.
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sir you can any providee the learning chapter in only equity maegin hpw to use and buy and sell share using margin please any provide
not so please give me a example
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I live in odisha and there is a cyclone. So no mobile connection no net connection. I hold a futures contract and i need to place a stop loss every
morning(as long as i hold the contract). What would you do in that circumstance? Or any measures we can take before hand to deal with such problems?
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As far as the futures position is concerned, the request to place the order has to come from you, either via the terminal or by you calling our support
center and confirming your ZPIN. There are no other options.
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Lets say i want to place a buy order(Normal) at RS 100. And once the order is executed i want to place a stop loss at Rs95. Now the problem i face is once
i have place the order i have to wait for it to go through and then only i can place the stop loss.
So is there any way i can place both the order and once the buy is executed automatically stop loss will be placed?
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Have you learned about the Bracket and cover order? Check this – https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=2TrYyOHA7P4&list=PLkxTRam6E2V-
okv6gwQlt6dLTsn0v6CD1&index=8 and this – https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=v4Buda7v-dY&list=PLkxTRam6E2V-
okv6gwQlt6dLTsn0v6CD1&index=9
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yes i know bracket and cover order. But those are for MIS. Is there something for the delivery trades?
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Can you provide a detailed process(with pictures) for placing Futures order on Kite including calculations of Margin in layman’s term?
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I’d suggest you attend the daily demo we conduct, happens twice a day, keep track of it here –
https://www.youtube.com/user/zerodhaonline/featured
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in liquidity risk , the investment bank has to be paid a fee to find a party and make a deal happen. what is the risk involved here? didn’t get that part.
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What in case you cant find a counterparty? In this case, you are holding to a position and exposed to the directional risk.
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Hi karthik,
I have two ques. for you related to this chapter,
1.) Why both the parties pick a date 3 months in future, When they can settle the deal now, If ABC thinks the price will go up so they fix the deal at CMP
and XYS thinks the prices will go down so he also try to fix the deal at CMP, if they are both ready the settle the deal at CMP then whats the point in
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waiting for 3 months when they can settle rite now because of opposing views, they are waiting just to see that how much one profited or lost from the
deal.
2.) Suppose the gold dealers XYZ is not buying the gold at the end of contract, he some how already had 15kgs of gold which he purchased sometime
back at 2300000/kg, so if he decides to sell the gold at 2400000 CMP he is already getting 100000/kg profit, So how will the cash settlement will take
place in this particular case.
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1) Because these are forward dated contracts, view materialize at a later point. For example, you want to travel to USA in May, you’d ideally want $
in May, right? Not really in Feb? Likewise.
2) Possible, end of the day, the difference has to be made good. By the way, this is the reason why futures were introduced – to standardize the
structure of the transaction between buyers and sellers.
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Hi Karthik ,
1. Can i short Niftyfutures and carry it forward with a progressive/trailing stoploss for more than 1day to max till expiry of the month ?
2. what about shorting stocks or stockfuture?
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suppose if a stock is trading at 200, and the results are weak and indicators are showing down trend , i expect 150-160 levels in a time period
of week or or two, buying put option will be better than shorting stock regularly on mis?
And what if the stock is not traded in F&O?
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Yes, because MIS is an intraday order whereas you can carry forward the PUT options overnight. In case the stock is not in F&O, then
I’m afraid you have no option but to short the stock and cover it by EOD.
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Karthik Rangappa says:
March 2, 2018 at 11:27 am
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28. chidambaram says:
March 17, 2018 at 7:02 pm
Hi Sir,
In case we hold a future contract of a stock and say its in a profit of 5rs a share,but then in middle if the stock dividend payout(Rs.8 /share) ex-date is
reached and so the stock value is adjusted then,
1.Will the future price will also reduce?
2.If future price will reduced to Rs.8,then won’t that lead us to a loss of Rs.3/share !!.
3.If it would lead us to a loss because of adjustment,then it means that no one will hold stock futures on the dividend ex-date?or will everyone short the
stock future the previous day?
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The contracts are all pre-adjusted to corporate actions. So, the effect is already known and reflects in the contract.
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chidambaram says:
March 19, 2018 at 10:00 pm
1.Means,will it lead us to a loss in this dividend payout situation if we hold the contract during exdate?
2.Had there been any situation , that in Spot market the stock price increase, but in future market very less people to buy so that future price
decreases?If So in that case what to be done?
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Hi Karthik,
Recently there was news that sebi is considering to impose tighter restrictions on retail traders who do fno trading wherein their total exposure in fno
positions wil be limited to some amount as determined by their income tax filing. Brokers are already protesting this move.. do you think such a decision
will be implemented? Becoz at the end of the day it is the retail trader who wud not be able to grow his account becoz he cannot add his gains from
previous trades as there wil be an upper cap and hence no compounding will be possible..
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This is a beautiful, simple, effective delivery of the subject matter. All chapters are excellent. The question and answers
also removes lot of doubts.
Congratulations to the entire team.
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Hi Karthick,
with respect to the new rule by sebi under which it will put a limit to the exposure which retail traders can have in the derivatives market, will this rule
apply even to the HNI (high net worth) traders as well?
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I’m not sure if there is any new rule like this. The most recent from SEBI is on physical settlement, check this – https://zerodha.com/z-
connect/tradezerodha/policy-on-settlement-of-compulsory-delivery-derivative-contracts
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trader says:
July 22, 2018 at 11:34 am
I meant about the proposed rule which sebi plans to put in place wherein retail traders derivatives exposure will be decided by their income
tax returns..will this apply to HNI traders as well?
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Well, its hard to speculate on what SEBI will come out eventually. But I guess if you can prove to have enough net worth, then it
should not be a problem to continue trading F&O I guess.
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Hello .
Very lucid and easy to understand even for beginners.
I would like to request you though to use easier number (preferably round figures) while explaining hypothetical scenarios. For example : When we are
trying to understand forward contracts between ABC and xyz for gold 2450*10*15 -4.06 crore etc , is very distracting. Kindly use simpler numbers
especially for someone like me who is weak in Maths. Great explanations though.
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Hlo sir I am new user of zerodha I want to gained knowledge for future trade so can u help regarding this
Pls reply contact me 8369003036
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Hi,
I have been trying to understand derivatives trade, and have read about the reasons why many prefer this to the spot segment; but one thing I still don’t get
is, how a public listed company benefits from the derivatives trade, since they themselves can not trade in them. Can any company refuse to have its
derivatives traded in the f&o market?
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The company does not really benefit from getting listed under F&O nor can they refuse this. This is basically dependent on the trading pattern,
based on which the exchange takes a call.
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Can i use borrowed money for trading without any certification if mutually agreed by lender.
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This depends on the terms of the agreement with your lender. Some clearly state that you should not be trading with the funds borrowed.
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ricky says:
September 30, 2018 at 4:11 pm
lets take a real example my friend is ready to give me loan for certain fixed monthly interest for trading in markets. My concern is that will
regulators would have any problem if i trade by using that money. For example consider loan amount to be 10 lakh and 2 percent that is
20000 monthly interest.
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No Ricky, nobody will have a problem with this. As far as the regulator is concerned, the funds are coming in from a registered bank
account. However, on a personal note – I’d suggest you don’t do this. I’ve seen many do this only to end up in a bad state at a later
point.
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ricky says:
October 1, 2018 at 2:04 pm
Thank You for your valuable personal advise.Even personally i would not lend anyone money for trading.
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Karthik Rangappa says:
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Good luck!
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36. ayush wadhwani says:
October 5, 2018 at 8:28 pm
hello sir from where i can gain complete information about intraday?
¶Reply
There is a lot of content available here, Ayush. I’d suggest you get started on Varsity.
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Modules
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14 chapters
2. Technical Analysis
20 chapters
3. Fundamental Analysis
16 chapters
4. Futures Trading
12 chapters
23 chapters
6. Option Strategies
13 chapters
7 chapters
19 chapters
16 chapters
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15 chapters
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