Documenti di Didattica
Documenti di Professioni
Documenti di Cultura
All rights reserved. Portions of this manuscript may be reproduced with proper referencing and due
acknowledgement of the author.
BULACAN STATE UNIVERSITY – SARMIENTO CAMPUS ii
A Thesis
Presented to the Bachelor of Science in Business Administration Department
Bulacan State University- Sarmiento Campus
San Jose del Monte, Bulacan
by
FLAVIER REYES DUE
2019
BULACAN STATE UNIVERSITY – SARMIENTO CAMPUS
iii
Acknowledgement
First and foremost, the researcher would like to show gratitude to Almighty and ever
living God giver of all good gifts who always gives courage and hope to finish this research.
He has never failed to encourage the spirit of the researcher. The researcher is currently
depressed because of his family, academic and he misses someone, and though he faces this
catastrophe he continually fight to achieve his dreams and finish this course that he took.
The researcher would like to thanked the following Mama Joy, Edgar, Jannary and all
my friends who always been there for me to cheer me up and never ceased to remind me about
To the love of my life though you left me and forgot me, the researcher will always love
you thank you for being my happy pill, my light, my love; thank you.
And finally to my mother who always there for me to support me to guide me the
The researcher believed on Dumbledore (1996) that help will always come to Hogwarts.
The Researcher
BULACAN STATE UNIVERSITY – SARMIENTO CAMPUS iv
TABLE OF CONTENTS
Page
COPYRIGHT………………………………………………………...... i
ACKNOWLEDGEMENT…………………………………………….. iii
TABLE OF CONTENTS……………………………………………… iv
Introduction……………………………………………………… 1
Theoretical Framework………………………………………...... 17
Conceptual Framework………………………………………...... 22
Definition of Terms……………………………………………… 27
BULACAN STATE UNIVERSITY – SARMIENTO CAMPUS vii
STUDIES
Foreign Literature………………………………………….......... 28
Foreign Studies………………………………………………….. 38
Local Literatures……………………………………………........ 44
Local Studies…………………………………………………...... 47
Description of Respondents……………………………............... 55
Instrumentation………………………………………………...... 56
BIBLIOGRAPHY……………………………………………………... 58
Chapter 1
Introduction
Modern medicine and its arsenal of manufactured drugs and advanced technological
devices, presents a big disparity from the folk traditional healing with the use of medicinal
plants though comparison of their practices and principles. Suffused in the concept of
as inferior.
However, high cost of modern medicine, especially those manufactured abroad, and
their unavailability in remote areas led to continued dependence in the need to re-evaluate the
The Philippines is endowed with rich flora, which are known to have medicinal
properties since ancient times. The native doctor or “alularyo” of olden times were skilled in
the use of local plants from decoctions and concoctions and passed this knowledge on folk
medicine from one generation to another. To date, “albularyos” and their use of medicinal
plants are still widely practiced in the rural areas of the country.
villages in 12 regions of the country, 1687 plants were found being used of such 120 medicinal
plants have been scientifically validated for safety and efficacy and 10 are being endorsed by
Figure 1.1
Source: WWW.mixph.com
The figure 1.1 enlists the ten medicinal plants approved by the Department of Health
But it is highly possible that there are more plant species that can be classified medicinal given
the Philippines’ rich and diverse flora that we can use as an opportunity to expand the
Despite the need; however, there is yet to be a systematic research strategy towards the
identification, characterization and evaluation of such medicinal plants and steps towards
BULACAN STATE UNIVERSITY – SARMIENTO CAMPUS
resolving this is still primitive. As an initial steps; therefore, there is a need to develop a
The only problem with the proper utilization of naturopathic medicines in the Philippines
is the lack of awareness and laws that could help the practitioners of naturopathy to develop.
Living holistic is just a choice now a day; people tend to neglect the very essence of
living holistically; they eat whatever they want. They forgetting the risks of having a disease
in the near future. They don’t even think about the expenses and other problems that they might
experience.
tier model of human needs, often depicted as hierarchical levels within a pyramid.
From the bottom of the hierarchy upwards, the needs are: Physiological, safety, love and
belonging, esteem and self-actualization needs lower down in the hierarchy must be satisfied
Self – actualization
Esteem
Safety needs
Physiological needs
Figure 1.2
After acquiring the bottom part of the pyramid which is the Physiological needs
specifically air, water, food, shelter, sleep, clothing, reproduction. We can now proceed to the
safety needs stage which are the personal security, employment, resources, health and
property. Maslow hierarchy of needs is telling us to also secure our health that for some it is
just nothing.
This research will focus on the marketability and competency of naturopathic medicines,
the awareness of the consumers about the naturopathy, the effectivity of the products and of
Although naturopathy is now being practiced here in the Philippines and the results are
very astounding and we can say that this practice is significant to us, yet despite their
significant role there has been little research on this field of healing. Currently the naturopathic
profession here in the Philippines is undergoing a period of rapid professional growth and
change. However, to date most research exploring the perceptions of naturopaths has been
descriptive in nature and has focused on those in leadership positions rather than grassroots
practitioners.
Naturopathy faces a lot of internal and external challenges relating to the practiced of
the increasing commercial interest infiltrating complementary medicine, and; division and
But with the help of this research we could possibly identifies and bring solutions to
In order for us to solve the present condition of our economy we should also take
accounts to those data’s that our economist have been recorded and we should also know the
wide range effects of this crisis. As marketing student we always consider price as a scale or
indicators if we will buy a certain product or avail a service. We also became more conscious
Many Filipinos are not aware about what is really happening in the market today. Yes
they are aware of the price increase and they only know one reason the Train law but little they
know that it’s not just Train law that moves the entire economy of the Philippines. Maybe we
consumers and the community also play a great role in what happening in the economy in this
time.
Inflation rate in the Philippines is getting higher as the years goes by from 1986 to 2018
PSA 2018 “The base year serves as the reference” "to which a continuous series of index
"The consumer price index or CPI is used because it is meaningless to assign a peso
The base year changes from time to time because the mechanisms of the basket of goods
change over time as well. Because the necessities of the Filipino people tend to change from
time to time those commodities that you’re availing won’t be the same if there are new
BULACAN STATE UNIVERSITY – SARMIENTO CAMPUS
products in the market. This approach also can link to the buying behavior of the consumers
But the very question is how inflation and the hyperinflation affect you? And what are
the consequences of this. This research paper will help you understand the cause and the
The direct costs of inflation could be examined at different levels. At the individual level,
inflation exacts a toll on those with relatively fixed incomes or those who have regular jobs.
Relatedly, inflation favors debtors at the expense of creditors. Welfare analysis should be
At the macroeconomic level, studies have been more quantitative in nature which means
There has been recent foreign evidence supporting the view that long-run growth is
adversely affected by inflation. An oft-cited reference is that of Fischer (1993). The framework
that's used springs from endogenous growth theory that tries to work out the causes of
distinction in growth rates in numerous countries. The negative result of inflation on output
stems from the ensuing political economy instability that makes it harder for economic agents
In the Philippine the direct costs of inflation have been measured by estimating its impact
on output and its components. The welfare prices and spatial arrangement effects of the
inflation tax are mostly unnoticed. In the PIDS Annual Macro econometric Model (Reyes and
Yap,1993a), for example, a rise in sectoral prices and the general price level results in a decline
BULACAN STATE UNIVERSITY – SARMIENTO CAMPUS
in demand for the relevant sectoral output. This explains why the impact of a peso depreciation
Inflation as a proxy for political economy stability conjointly includes a negative impact
on real fastened investment within the PIDS model. Thus, controlling inflation will result in
higher capital formation and expand the future productive capacity of the economy.
Lira (1996) has a similar investment equation, which is one of the four equations he
estimates to trace the relationship between output growth and inflation. The first equation
shows the logarithm of the consumer price index (LCPI) to be positively related to the moving
average of money supply (LMAMS), a moving average of wages (LMAW), a moving average
of the
Price of imported inputs (LMAPM), and the past level of CPI (LCPI[-I ]). The variables
are all in logarithms. On the other hand LCPI is negatively related to the real interest rate
(TBCPI) and, rather surprisingly, to the rate of capacity utilization (CAPU). In equation form
we have.
The second equation shows the wage rate as proxies by the compensation of
related to the unemployment rate (UNEMPR) and positively related to a moving average of 13
the rate of capacity utilization (MACAPU) and the past level of inflation which captures
of the capacity utilization rate and the lagged unemployment rate, thus:
Finally, we have the investment equation where the logarithm of gross domestic capital
formation (LGDCF) is positively related to a moving average of GDP in logarithmic form and
All these equations are estimated using quarterly data for the period 1981-1994.
The first three equations combined will yield a shorter a Phillips curve. Higher capacity
utilization resulting from higher growth will lead to lower unemployment, higher wages and
higher inflation. In practice the negative effect on the price level exerted by higher capacity
utilization does not offset the impact of the higher wage rate.
Lira suspects that the negative coefficient of the variable CAPU in equation (i) is due to
equation (4). Note that investment and capacity utilization are directly relate&
In general, when the direction of flow is from higher growth (originating from the supply
side), a trade-off exists between inflation and unemployment. But an increase in the inflation
rate brings down output growth via equation (4) and eventually leads to an increase in the
unemployment rate. The relationship between inflation and unemployment is asymmetric and
A simple regression of the real growth rate of per capita GDP (g) on inflation (INFL)
The figures in parentheses are the relevant t statistics. The results indicate a significant
negative relation between inflation and per capita income growth although this may be caused
To further investigate the relationship between output and inflation, we estimate a model
similar to the one developed by Robert Lucas and Robert Barro and applied by Hanson (1980).
A description of the model and the empirical results are presented in the Appendix.
The results show that only unanticipated inflation or monetary growth has a positive
effect on the growth rate. Eight percentage points of unexpected inflation produce about one
extra percentage point of growth. The results also show that an increase in expected inflation
due to supply related developments which means that money supply growth remains
unchanged or neutral leads to a decline in output growth rate. But the effect is small, supporting
There are also determinants in the inflation in the Philippines. Knowledge of the factors
that significantly affect inflation will enable economic managers to target appropriate variables
in their effort to maintain price changes at a moderate level. Most econometric inflation models
BULACAN STATE UNIVERSITY – SARMIENTO CAMPUS
for developing economies are based on mark-up over cost equations since external factors are
readily incorporated. The last is essential for open economies like the Philippines.
The first equation of the study of Lira (1996) shows that cost-push and demand-pull
factors are important in the determination of the price level. The price of foreign product has
Reyes (1996), using a monthly inflation model, has similar findings. "I'he price index
for imports of non-fuels has the highest elasticity, followed by the liquidity variable and wage.
The study of Reyes is an extension of the model of Mariano (1985). In the latter study, the
variables with the largest elasticities are the liquidity variable, the import price index for non-
fuels and the wage variable. The equation of Mariano shows, however, that food prices are also
a significant determinant of inflation. The models of Lim, Reyes and Mariano use the price
An earlier study is that of R. Bautista (1983) who estimated an inflation equation based
on the annual growth of CPI. His results show that a large part of inflation for the period
19651982 can be attributed to foreign price increases and the depreciation of the peso. He does
not find the growth of money supply and changes in the wage rate to be significant.
Bautista (1991). By estimating a macroeconomic vector auto regression model (VAR) and
applying variance decomposition, Bautista shows that the forecast error variance of inflation
due to exchange rate movements is higher than that of money supply growth. This lends support
to the BOP view of inflation which maintains that the exchange rate is the main cause of price
changes. The empirical results do not show, however, that the fiscal view of inflation, which
BULACAN STATE UNIVERSITY – SARMIENTO CAMPUS
contends that the main determinant is money supply growth fueled by fiscal deficits, is
unimportant.
An interesting study of Lim (1987) which is based on the possibility that the working
capital cost-push effect may offset the monetarist effect so that inflation may even rise after a
reduction in money supply. The increase in inflation is caused by the rise in the interest rate
The empirical results indicate a positive relation between relevant interest rates and
inflation. Lim then concludes that "the simple quantity theory of money is oversimplified and
hides the full impact of monetarist prescriptions to inflation and that it neglects the transmission
mechanism of credit mad monetary cutback which may entail a drastic fall in income,
These studies show that adherence to the accepted IMF prescriptions do not bring about
the desired results. Inflation control is more effective through exchange rate stabilization and
less import dependence. Moreover, contractionary monetary policy by raising interest rates and
17
Theoretical Framework
Hyperinflation is not different to everyone because in every country and every economy
in this world faces it every day. One wrong move in the market; inflation may occur and another
Many dated incidents of hyperinflation occurred and the consequences of them were
mind blowing. Such pattern we can use in order for us to survive in the hyperinflation in the
Germany 1920.
The hyperinflation episode in the Weimar Republic in Germany 1920’s was not the first
hyperinflation, nor was it the only one in the early 1920’s Europe or even the most extreme
inflation in history however, as the most prominent case following the emergence of economics
as a scholarly disciple, it drew interest in a way that previous instances had not. Many of the
dramatic and unusual economic behavior now associated with hyperinflation were first
rates, redenomination of the currency, consumer flight from money to laborious assets, and the
rapid expansion of industries that produced those assets. German monetary economics was then
highly influenced by Cartelism and the German Historical School, and this conditioned the way
John Maynard Keynes (1936) described the situation in his book The Economic
Consequences of the Peace: "The inflationism of the currency systems of Europe has proceeded
to extraordinary lengths. The various belligerent Governments, unable, or too timid or too 18
short-sighted to secure from loans or taxes the resources they required, have printed notes for
the balance."
It was during this period of hyperinflation that French and British economic experts
began to claim that Germany destroyed its economy with the purpose of avoiding amends, but
both governments had conflicting views on a way to handle things. The French declared that
BULACAN STATE UNIVERSITY – SARMIENTO CAMPUS
Germany should keep paying compensations, while Britain sought to grant a suspension that
would allow for its financial renovation. Although reparations accounted for concerning one
third of the German deficit from 1920 to 1923, the government found reparations a convenient
scapegoat. Other scapegoats included bankers and speculators (particularly foreign). The
inflation reached its peak by Nov 1923 however terminated once a replacement currency (the
Rentenmark) was introduced. In order to make way for the new currency, banks "turned the
Although the inflation terminated with the introduction of the Rentenmark and also the
Weimar Republic continuing for a decade after, hyperinflation is widely believed to have
contributed to the Nazi takeover of Germany and Adolf Hitler's rise to power. Adolf Hitler
himself in his book, Mein Kampf, makes many references to the German debt and the negative
consequences that brought about the inevitability of "National Socialism". The inflation
amongst a middle class who had held cash savings and bonds.
It additionally created ill will of bankers and speculators, whom the government and the
press blamed for the inflation crisis. Many of them were Jews, and some Germans called the
hyper inflated Weimar banknotes Jew Confetti. Later German financial policy showed way
larger concern for maintaining a sound currency, a concern that even affected Germany's
attitude in resolving the European sovereign debt crisis from 2009 onwards. The hyper inflated,
worthless Marks became widely collected abroad. The l. a. Times calculable in 1924 that
additional of the decommissioned notes were unfold concerning the u. s. than existed in
Deutschland. Nevertheless the huge acceleration method that happens throughout the German
BULACAN STATE UNIVERSITY – SARMIENTO CAMPUS
development, which could be a further advanced research avenue of the complexity economics
in conjunction with analysis areas like frenzy, outcome, social brain and mirror neurons.
After the Weimar hyperinflation incident in 1920s a well-known economist Philip Cagan
wrote The Monetary Dynamics of Hyperinflation, the book often regarded as the first serious
hyperinflations. Recently, co-integration methods have been applied to the model in which the
demand for real balances is mainly determined by the expected rate of future inflation (Taylor,
1991; Phylakis and Taylor, 1993; Engsted, 1993, 1994, 1998; Michael, Nobay, and Peel, 1994;
Choudhry, 1998; and Petrovic, Bogetic and Vujosevic, 1999). The main insight of this literature
is that through the careful analysis of the stochastic properties of the data using co-integration
theory, one can validate (or reject) the model and obtain efficient estimates of key parameters. 20
researchers to suitably represent and test hypotheses with only very weak assumptions about
the expectations formation mechanism. The main findings of this work provide some evidence
to support a Cagan-type money demand function for most hyperinflations. However, most
studies fail to find robust support for the rational expectations hypothesis in this context across
countries and sample periods. In what follows, we examine the evidence from the most recent
experiences of three transition economies: Bulgaria, Russia and Ukraine. The Cagan model is
empirically tested using co-integration methodology. Since the specified model is without any
BULACAN STATE UNIVERSITY – SARMIENTO CAMPUS
a priori assumption about expectations formation, we proceed with a test of the rational
expectations hypothesis.
The research concludes, following Cagan (1956) and Taylor (1991), with a test of the
hypothesis that the percentage rate of increase in money supply and prices which maximizes
the revenue from seignior age creation is in fact equal to the average rate of inflation in the
sample.
episodes, which, with the exception of Russia (1992-1994), have been largely overlooked in
the literature. More specifically, these episodes include Bulgaria during 1995-1997 and
Ukraine during 1993-1995. We use the well-known most chance figurer because of Johansen
(1988, 1991) and Stock and Watson’s (1993) dynamic ordinary least squares (DOLS)
estimator to complement each other and obtain consistent estimates of the semi-elasticity of
As Michael, Nobay, and Peel (1994, p. 9) note, since small samples are biased in favor
lends strong support to its existence in welldefined money demand functions during
hyperinflation.
Hakkio and Rush (1991) also argue that while the frequency of observations is not
crucial, the “long run” may in some cases “be a matter of months.” For hyperinflation episodes,
a few months are all that matters. In addition, we present some test results using Cagan’s data
for both the Austrian and the first Russian hyperinflations of the 1920s.
BULACAN STATE UNIVERSITY – SARMIENTO CAMPUS
The results are somewhat different from those in the earlier literature (Taylor, 1991) and the
episodes remain a useful reminder of the circumstances in which hyperinflations emerge and
subside. We also provide consistent DOLS estimates of the parameters of interest and compare
those to the Johansen estimates found in previous work. Next, given the co-integrating
estimates, if they exist, we test the rational expectations hypothesis using two different
restrictions are stated as orthogonality assumptions of the prediction error onto the information
available at time t in a single equation framework. Taylor (1991, p. 346) establishes the
equivalence between this set of restrictions and cross-equation restrictions in a VAR model of
the co-integrating relationship and the rate of growth of inflation. Finally, the paper tests the
hypothesis that monetary policy in these three hyperinflations was conducted with the sole
This paper also concludes that when the value of money diminished the purchasing power of
the consumers will also diminished as a result many families which can’t afford to buy their 22
necessities thus poverty will increase and other problems will arise as the inflation continue
Conceptual Framework
To create a much deeper understanding on our research we will be having our systematic
approach in finding the best solution on the consequences of hyperinflation in the retailers of
The conceptual framework used in this study is the Input-Process-Output (IPO) model. This
research framework focuses on finding the best marketing solution in the hyperinflation for
Feedback
23
As the figure above represent the conceptual framework of this study, the input section
contains disclosed information e.g. demographics, giving retailers of Divisoria, Manila an idea,
regarding the factors about the scope wherein they belong. Under the demographic profile are
as follows: number one is the age to know the broadness of his/her experience in retailing and
selling. The second one is the gender, third is the educational attainment to know their
BULACAN STATE UNIVERSITY – SARMIENTO CAMPUS
knowledge regarding the inflation, fourth the marital status, number of offspring if they have,
questions crafted reflects the desired objective response (see attached Survey Questionnaire
populace figure. Collation of the data from the mentioned mean, reviewing and identifying
pattern/s by tallying stats will then be followed to come up with the results for the final section.
hyperinflation and to help the retailers to survive in the hyperinflation. the trend among the
sector, how it could be done through the management instigation for efficiency and
sustainability, an adherence to an ethical business model itself, and gaining result/s of its
24
1.1 Age
1.2 Gender
2.1 Sales
2.4 Operation
3. What are the approaches used by the retailers to ease the effects of hyperinflation in their
businesses?
3.2 Traditional
3.3 Systematical 25
4.1 Price
4.2 Weight
4.3 Packaging
4.4 Brand.
BULACAN STATE UNIVERSITY – SARMIENTO CAMPUS
5. How costumers react to the hyperinflation in the retailers of, Divisoria, Manila in terms
of ;
5.1 Price
5.2 Weight
5.3 Packaging
5.4 Brand
This study will be conducted in Divisoria Manila. It directly involves the businesses,
entrepreneurs, and the customers. Evaluate the micro small medium enterprises business
activities concerning the effects of the hyperinflation its benefits and consequences in the
community. It also involves the awareness of the beneficiaries and how the Retailers can
The selected b involves: (a) Food; (b) Garments; (c) Service Provider; (d) Personal care;
and (e) Personal services. The respondents of this study are the Owner of the retail stores and
the costumers. 26
Study the market structure and the existing marketing concepts that they are using as of
today
The findings of the study will be very beneficial and would be a great contribution to
vast knowledge in relation to the understanding of the future men and women of business in
understanding and defining how does hyperinflation occurs its cause and the consequences of
BULACAN STATE UNIVERSITY – SARMIENTO CAMPUS
it in the part of business itself to the customers and also to those who are managing the
business.
This will also solves the present hyperinflation problem in the market. This can be done
by careful investigation on the root causes of inflation those indicators will serves as a baseline
of our study.
It will also help the government if this research paper be a successful one this will help
Another beneficiary of this paper are the consumers that will likely will not panic buying
when inflation is manifesting and their profit will be sufficient to them as the value of their
Lastly retailers will be more knowledgeable about what is inflation is and how they can
27
Definition of Terms
CPI – or the consumers price index is an index measuring the change in the cost of
typical wage-earner purchases goods and services expressed as a percentage of the cost of
these same goods and services in some base period also called cost-of-living index.
CAPU– Capacity utilization is the extent to which an enterprise or a nation uses its
environmental concerns in their business operations. This is the interactions with the
stakeholders.
Demand-pull – This refers to an increase or upward trend in spendable money that tends
to result in increased competition for available goods and services and corresponding increase
in consumer prices.
Inflation – a continuing rise in the general price level usually attributed to an increase
in the volume of money and credit relative to available goods and services.
Menu cost – is the cost to a firm resulting from changing its prices. The name stems
from the cost of restaurants literally printing new menus, but economists use it to refer to the
Chapter 2
FOREIGN LITERATURE
inordinate rise in the general level of prices” (1988: 310). The New Palgrave: A wordbook of
social science (1987) quotes Laidler and Parkin (1975: 741) to outline inflation as “a method
BULACAN STATE UNIVERSITY – SARMIENTO CAMPUS
Moreover, “since there area unit many various ways that of mensuration costs, there are also
many different measures of inflation. The most unremarkably used measures within the times
area unit the share rate of modification in a very country’s shopper price level or in its Gross
National Product deflator” (New Palgrave: A dictionary of Economics, 1987: 832). Murali
(2004) states that the word inflation owes its origin to the Latin word in flare, which literally
means "to blow into", from flare, "to blow". This is an accurate description of the current
relative scarcity. Over many centuries’ unsubstantiated increases in prices occurred, with the
related problems of containing such increases. In this sense “inflation is each a awfully
previous drawback and a awfully new one. If we look back in history, we discover many
inflationary periods. Diocletian tried (in vain) to curb a Roman inflation in the fourth century
A.D.; between 1150 and 1325, the cost of living in medieval Europe rose fourfold; between
1520 and 1650, prices again rose between 200 and 400 per cent, largely as a result of gold 29
pouring into Europe from the newly opened mines of the New World. In the years following
the Civil War … [in the United States] … the South experienced a ferocious inflation, while
prices in the North doubled; during World War I, prices in the United States doubled again”
(Heilbronner, 1975: 170 and 171). In many instances inflation was, however, followed by
subsequent periods of deflation. In the United States, for instance, the “ … producer price
index in 1943 was slightly below its 1810 value” (Haslag, 1997: 19).
Diocletian was not content with half measures in containing inflation. He fixed the
maximum prices at which beef, grain, eggs, clothing and other articles could be sold, and
BULACAN STATE UNIVERSITY – SARMIENTO CAMPUS 30
prescribed the death penalty for anyone charging higher prices (Rupert, 1974b: 115). This is a
very early example of direct price controls aimed at containing price increases, but failed so
miserably that it had to be abandoned after much blood was shed. The current understanding
of the word inflation is contrasted with its earlier meanings by Bryan, who states that “[f]or
many years, the word inflation was not a statement about prices however a condition of folding
an increase in costs, and its connection to money is often overlooked” (Bryan, 1997: 1). Bryan
also states that “[w]hat was once a word that described a monetary cause now describes a price
outcome. This shift in which means has difficult the position of anti-inflation advocates. As a
condition of the money stock, an inflating currency has but one origin – the central bank – and
one solution – a less expansive money growth rate. But as a condition of the price level, which
may have originated from a variety of things … the solution to – and the prudence of –
eliminating inflation is much less clear” (Bryan, 1997: 1). Bryan shows that the use of the word
inflation originates from the period between the mid-1830s and the Civil War in the United
States, when banks issued “bank notes, a private folding money redeemable for a particular
quantity of metal. That is, if the issuing bank had it. At times, banks failed to have enough gold
or silver to satisfy all of their claims. Bank notes … tended to depreciate. It is during this period
that the word inflation begins to emerge in literature, not in reference to something that
happens to prices, but as something that happens to a paper currency” (Bryan, 1997: 2). Bryan
states that the earliest reference to inflation to be found in the library of the Federal Reserve
Bank of Cleveland comes from a publication of 1855, although “[t]he Oxford English
Dictionary shows the earliest reference to be from Barnard: The property pledge can have no
BULACAN STATE UNIVERSITY – SARMIENTO CAMPUS
tendency whatever to prevent an inflation of the currency” (1997: 2 and 6). Whereas “[t]he
term inflation was ab initio wont to describe a modification within the proportion of currency
in circulation relative to the quantity of valuable that deep-rooted a nation’s money … by the
late nineteenth century, however, the distinction between currency and money was becoming
blurred” (Bryan, 1997: 2). Bryan concludes that “[w]ithout being tied to the money supply,
any price increase seems to have an equal claim to the word inflation. Indeed, these days we
have a tendency to often browse reports of a ostensibly endless form of inflations. When the
word is used as a description of the price level, an antiinflationary policy can easily be
characterised as being against any price increase, including higher wages. This is simply not
the case. An anti-inflation strategy is bothered with a selected kind of increment – an increase
within the general price index stemming from excessive cash creation. When viewed in this
light – the light provided by the word’s original meaning – a zero-inflation objective for the 31
central bank becomes a much more sensible goal” (Bryan, 1997: 4). Bernanke et al. state that
macroeconomic variable that financial policy will affect” (1999: 10). Friedman states
that inflation originates in modern times from “the actions of legislators and central banks,
rather than from such acts of God as specie discoveries, implying that inflation is not likely to
proceed very long without being anticipated, and perhaps, over anticipated” (1972). The
to bad policies in one way or another. Section 2 of this chapter provides a selected review of
1921. This section provides the theoretical and macroeconomic backdrop of the study and
BULACAN STATE UNIVERSITY – SARMIENTO CAMPUS
Although the word inflation was used as long ago as the 1830s, “[p]ersistent inflation is
a post– World War II phenomenon. Before then, the history of price indexes shows bouts of
inflation followed by periods of deflation. In other words, the price level cycles showed no
discernible upward or downward trend” (Haslag, 1997: 12). As the period before World War
II was characterised by price swings rather than persistent price increases in the way inflation
is understood today, the early literature on inflation focuses attention on this cyclical trend in
price changes. In this regard Haslag states that “[e]conomic expansions generally coincided
with inflation, and contractions typically coincided with deflation” (1997: 19). Hansen states
that “[o]n considering the history of the theories of inflation, it's doable to tell apart 2 main
treatments, of that the one appears to own had its origin far back in the past, while the other is
only half a century old8 ” (1951: 1). The first and older of these two theories is based on the
quantity of money theory. The second theory, integrating micro and macroeconomics, has been
developed by Wicksell and is based on the principle that the general price level is determined
by the aggregate demand and aggregate supply of goods and services in the economy (see for
instance Hansen, 1951: 1 and 2; or Keynes, 19429 ). In considering the development of new
theories over time, the remark of Gordon that “ … the outcome of historical events often
challenges theorists and overturns theories, leading to the evolution of latest theories” (2000:
58) involves mind. In the review of inflation over time, events such as the Great Depression
BULACAN STATE UNIVERSITY – SARMIENTO CAMPUS
of 1929 to 1933; the surfacing of persistent inflation after World War II; historically high rates
of inflation in developed countries in the 1970s; and the subsequent demise of inflation in
developed countries since the 1980s, have triggered the development of new theories.
In the modern world, nation-states, empires, and civilizations are often compared to and
judged by the perceived success of Roman culture. There is little doubt that Roman culture
was undefeated and enduring, which has contributed to make Rome the “gold standard” by
which most other societies are judged. In terms of longevity, few societies can beat Rome as
the Roman Republic began in 509 BC and continued for nearly 500 years before transitioning
into the Roman Empire, which saw its last western emperor renounce his throne in AD 479.
Rome is additionally loved nowadays for its apparent currency within the ancient world: the
Romans delivered to the globe running water, concrete and a complex system of roads, 33
republican government, and organized sports. Truly, among all the traditional peoples there's
little doubt the Romans were the foremost “modern.” But perhaps just as intriguing as Rome’s
Gibbon (1789). Author of “The History of the Decline and Fall of the Roman Empire”
was published in 1789 The collapse of the Roman Empire has been the subject of immense
interest among both professional scholars and lay people alike multi-volume work. In that
monumental book, Gibbon primarily attributed Rome’s decline to internal weakness and its
Since Gibbon, countless books and academic articles have been written about the decline
of Rome with several theories being advanced including: excessive immigration, slavery, the
decline of the Roman family, and the use of lead pipes in aqueducts. Today, most specialists
BULACAN STATE UNIVERSITY – SARMIENTO CAMPUS
of Hellenic Civilization, which includes Rome, contend that Rome’s collapse was the result of
several factors that combined to create a “perfect storm” of civilizational destruction. Some
past students of “big history,” such as Oswald Spengler and to a lesser extent, Arnold Toynbee,
have even argued that Rome’s downfall was unavoidable. But among all the factors that
contributed to Rome’s final ending, the economic factors are often overlooked. In specific, the
role of inflation, which many believe to be endemic only in modern economies, played a fairly
significant role that ultimately contributed to internal problems within Rome. Once the Roman
economy was dispiritedly ravaged by inflation, the borders of the empire were open for the
Throughout each the republic and Empire, the minting of coins was regulated by the
state. Monetary denominations, as well as the purity levels of the coins, were tightly controlled 34
just as the production of currency is today in most countries. The standard Roman coin was
the silver denarius. The denarius was used for larger transactions, but in most day to day affairs
people used the sestertius, four of which equaled one denarius. During the Republic, sesterces
were made from silver, but bronze during the Empire. The as was the littlest sort of currency
The primary distinction between Roman currency which of nowadays, is that Roman
coins were virtually value their weight in silver, bronze, or copper. The coins weren't “backed”
by gold reserves as has been the case in trendy systems, nor did shopper confidence decide
their worth because it is nowadays. In a in fiscal matters accountable government, as was the
case throughout most of Roman history, the system worked well, however once corruption set
The basic conception of inflation was basically identical within the ancient world
because it is nowadays. In the simplest terms, it refers to the rising prices of commodities and
also the reduced worth of the currency. There ar several causes of inflation, however the
catalyst for associate degree inflationary cycle. In trendy economies, inflationary cycles
typically happen once a financial organization prints an excessive amount of cash, thereby
lowering the worth of the currency and raising the costs on commodities. The situation was
quite similar within the ancient world, however rather than printing cash, kings and alternative
leaders would add impurities to their minted coins. The result was typically that not solely
were there too several coins in circulation, however those that were getting used were of very 35
little worth because of their impurities. A state of affairs like this occurred in Egypt many years
Around the year 210 BC, because of the economic issues caused by the Fourth Syrian
War, the king of Egypt, Ptolemy IV (ruled 221-204 BC), low the currency in associate degree
attempt to recoup a number of the prices of following the war. Ptolemy IV modified the unit
The king hoped that by doing so he would be able to recover the silver coins that were
currently in circulation, which he would then use to pay for the war debts. Instead, little silver
was recovered as a result of it had been little question horded once news of the economic set
up became proverbial, whereas a lot of and a lot of bronze coins were introduced into
circulation, creating a classic inflationary cycle. Not understanding the nuances of inflation,
alternative Ptolemaic kings allowed the cycle to continue for a few time till King Ptolemy VI
BULACAN STATE UNIVERSITY – SARMIENTO CAMPUS
(reigned 180-145 BC) reintroduced silver drachmas back to circulation. The process happened
once more regarding a hundred years later once Ptolemy XII (ruled 117-51 BC) low the
currency by adding impurities to the coins. During the years fifty three and fifty two BC, the
purity of silver coins born from ninety p.c to cardinal p.c, that caused a significant spike within
Tenim (2006) any lesson that could have been learned by the Ptolemies’ fiscal policies
was completely ignored by the Romans during the early Empire; but in retrospect they
probably thought that their strong economy would continue forever. After the smoke of the
Civil Wars cleared and Octavian/Augustus was declared emperor, Rome old nearly two
hundred years of solid economic process. The gross domestic product of the first Roman 36
Empire was almost like that of AD 1700’s European country [3] and also the celebrated Roman
roads, known as vias, evolved from being used primarily by the military to additionally link
As the economy of the first Roman Empire grew, sound fiscal policies under Tiberius
(reigned AD 14-37) and other early emperors helped keep inflation in check.
The money provide inflated proportionately with the rise in trade. Taxes were
additionally unbroken low: every province solely paid a 1 p.c wealth tax and a flat tax on all
adults. All of this helped keep costs low and also the wheels of presidency moving effectively,
Around AD 200, the Roman economy took a drastic turn from which it was never able
to recover. Around that point, there was a recession that ravaged a lot of of the Roman Empire
during a method that trendy students ar just starting to perceive. [5] The recession was
BULACAN STATE UNIVERSITY – SARMIENTO CAMPUS
combined by the questionable “Antonine plague,” which was brought back from the eastern
provinces by Roman soldiers. Since the plague crystal rectifier to the widespread devastation
of the Roman population, wages inflated apace – a lot of too apace. [6] The result was a forceful
increase on the costs of products that had ne'er before been witnessed in Rome: inflation was
just one p.c within the 1st 2 centuries AD, but prices doubled after the plague. [7] The
immediate when effects of the plague ought to are a wakeup decision to Roman leaders, but
Another issue that contributed to inflation within the Roman Empire was the transition
to a additional cash primarily based economy. Before AD 200, real-estate was actually a more
popular form of currency among wealthy Romans than coins were, but after the plague, Rome 37
quickly transitioned into a more cash based economy because of the growing expenses of
presidency.
The growth of territory meant a lot of folks were additional to the empire and comes like
bridges and acqueduct were required to sustain the growing population, thus additional cash
was needed. The Roman military industrial complicated conjointly grew exponentially, that
meant that additional coins were required to pay the troopers. Finally, there was associate
magnified use in money for love or money from giant business deals by the elites to day to day
transactions by standard individuals. [8] Roman leaders quickly learned that with such a lot of
coins already in circulation, they were having a troublesome time paying for his or her
construction comes, not to mention their soldiers. They tried to rectify the case by devaluing
their currency.
BULACAN STATE UNIVERSITY – SARMIENTO CAMPUS
Although the Romans unbroken few records that were directly associated with their
devaluing of the denarius, the records they did keep, combined with examinations of coins
from the period tell the story of a deliberate commit to stretch the silver that they had as way
as they may. Similar to the case in Ptolemaic Egypt, the Romans began adding impurities to
their silver coins so additional may well be another to circulation. The process had 2 results:
there have been too several coins in circulation and also the new coins that were being another
were comprised additional of alternative metals than silver. It is calculable that the rate of
inflation reached associate astronomical rate of fifteen,000% between AD two hundred and
300! In terms of a tangible example, one Roman pound of gold was valued at seventy two,000
denarii in AD 301, which would be nearly impossible for any Roman to have that many coins
on his or her person. [9] Finally, the Emperor Diocletian (ruled AD 284-306) completed that 38
forceful measures had to be taken if he were to avoid wasting the Roman economy and quite
By AD 250, the inflationary cycle had crippled the Roman economy and threatened to
bring the entire empire down. Instead of offensive drawback|the matter} at the supply by
addressing the currency problem, Diocletian instead determined to enact worth controls in 301.
The edict only made things worse as it drove consumers to the black market, but the
economic science, Diocletian’s successors for the foremost half were conjointly unable to stem
the tide of inflation and in truth kept many of his polices, including price controls.
several to be among the best of the later Roman emperors, he was unable to mend the failing
BULACAN STATE UNIVERSITY – SARMIENTO CAMPUS
Roman economy. The inflation persisted for nearly 2 hundred additional years, throughout
which period taxes were massively magnified. [11] Internal issues were more combined by the
economic state of affairs, like the concentration of wealth in fewer and fewer hands, which
regularly junction rectifier to mob riots. [12] Eventually, the Roman government was unable
to pay its armies, which then often turned their swords on Rome itself. In the end, it absolutely
was primarily Germanic tribes, such as the Goths and Vandals, who dealt the final death blows
to Rome, but that would not have been possible if Rome’s economy weren't weakened by a
39
FOREIGN STUDIES
combating inflation, despite the imposition of demanding cuts in government deficits. In most
cases inflation lessened solely slowly and quickly, with concomitant declines in growth and
employment. The Bolivian program, one of the only Latin American successes, is contrasted
countries, and therefore the influence of worth and wage rigidities, expectations, and
credibility is explored. The study shows that fiscal restraint is a necessary but not sufficient
condition for success, and that sound management of nominal variables (the exchange rate and
money supply) are also necessary. The crucial role of believability is connected with worth
and wage rigidities within the chronic inflation countries, whereas the unsustainability of
BULACAN STATE UNIVERSITY – SARMIENTO CAMPUS
hyperinflation is seen to extend the believability of and thus the potential for successful
stabilization programs.
countries over the years, inflation does not show any signs of retreating. The one exception is
Bolivia, where tight monetary and fiscal policies produced stabilization quickly and with
relatively low costs. In most other instances where orthodox policies were applied, inflation
came down very slowly, and stabilization was accompanied by a reduction in growth and
increases in unemployment. The purpose of this article is to analyze the experience with
policies based on a tight fiscal stance not supported by price controls (which play an important
role in the "heterodox" policies that lie beyond the scope of this study). A central issue is the
difference in the relation of chronic inflation (defined as a long period of moderately high
inflation) and hyperinflation with regard to the doynamic behavior of prices and wages.
We also address questions about the relation between budget deficits and inflation. Is
inflation always and everywhere in Latin America a fiscal phenomenon? Do reductions in the
budget deficit always result in lower inflation rates? Section I of the article analyzes why
orthodox policies based on fiscal adjustment and exchange rate pegging were effective in
stopping hyperinflation but were ineffective against chronic inflation. The effect of the
unsustainable nature of the hyperinflationary process are examined. Section II analyzes three
basic types of stabilization in countries with chronic inflation. The first type is based almost
exclusively on fiscal adjustment, an approach undermined by the lack of nominal anchors and
BULACAN STATE UNIVERSITY – SARMIENTO CAMPUS
illustrated by the experiences of Brazil and Mexico in the 1980s. Using these experiences, we
try to explain the paradox of the joint occurrence of a sharp cut in the fiscal deficit and an
upsurge in the level of inflation. This leads us, secondly, to consider programs which employ
a monetary nominal anchor in conjunction with fiscal adjustment. We base the empirical
analysis on the policies employed in Chile by the military regime in the mid1970s. The
problems of credibility and price rigidities are especially important in Chile, where the 1974-
examine exchange-rate-based stabilization programs which often evolve out of the monetary-
fiscal package described earlier. We analyze the relation between exchange rate and fiscal 41
policies in the short and long runs, highlighting the role of credibility issues. The empirical
analysis is based on three stabilization programs carried out by Argentina in the past thirty
years, and on the experience of Chile toward the end of the 1970s. We conclude with the long-
run view which extends beyond specific programs and emphasizes the importance of
Hyperinflation: The Case of Bolivia we draw here on Sachs (1986) and Morales (1987a,
1987b) to analyze the Bolivian hyperinflation of 1982-85 and its quick stabilization. During
the 1960s and 1970s Bolivia had moderate inflation rates by Latin American standards.
Inflation started to accelerate in 1982 and eventually reached an annualized rate of 45,000
percent. It seems that the process was triggered by a sharp reduction in the external funds
which had been used to finance the budget deficit. The government was then forced to finance
the deficit domestically, mainly by printing money. This is shown in table 1 by the sharp
BULACAN STATE UNIVERSITY – SARMIENTO CAMPUS
increase in seignior age, measured here as the change in base money as a percentage of gross
domestic product (GDP). Due to delays in tax collection and in the adjustment of public sector
prices, as inflation accelerated it eroded the real value of government revenues (the
OliveraTanzi effect) and further exacerbated the fiscal situation. Tax revenues were virtually
eliminated by 1983, and seigniorage, which during most of the 1970s remained at 2 percent of
GDP, jumped to 12 percent of GDP and remained around this level until stabilization.
42
In August 1985 a successful stabilization program was launched along strictly orthodox
lines, which rapidly stopped inflation. The budget deficit was cut from more than 20 percent
in 1984 to 3 percent in 1986 (see table 1), monetary discipline was imposed, and the exchange
rate was stabilized. It is not apparent that the abrupt halting of inflation had any clear impact
on output.
the economy had been experiencing negative growth and continuous increases in
unemployment since 1981; the worsening of output growth and the increases in unemployment
that occurred in the second half of 1985 and during 1986 continued the downward trend that
had started during the hyperinflation period. In addition, part of the output losses during the
stabilization period were due to the sharp deterioration in the terms of trade in 1986 resulting
from the collapse of the tin market.' The drastic reduction in inflation with what appears to be
relatively small costs, followed the pattern of the classical European hyperinflations, as
Pasos (1972) one of the main explanations of the comparative ease of stopping
implicit nominal contracts which tend to increase the effect of lags in the system.
Morales (1987a) claims that the stabilization effort should have led to an increase in
output and that the absence of this expansion suggests that the program had a recessionary
impact. He also argues that the costs of the stabilization program may have been larger than is
suggested by the data on unemployment and growth in table 1. The cuts in government 43
expenditure had a significant effect on social services and public investment, which could
Taylor (1979) Given that these contracts are staggered, the reaction of inflation to policy
measures is slowed down. The longer the duration of the staggered nominal contracts, the more
Pazos (1972) and the slower will be the reaction to stabilization policies. As inflation
increases, parties to contracts shorten the period over which they are willing to restrict nominal
prices and during hyperinflation, contracts and price changes become almost entirely
synchronized. Hyperinflation resembles a system of fully flexible prices and wages with no
nominal rigidities, with the potential of responding very quickly to disinflationary measures.
In Bolivia, the response of inflation to the policy measures of September 1985 was very
quick: the free market exchange rate appreciated immediately after the introduction of the
stabilization package, whereas prices stabilized just one week later. This responsiveness,
BULACAN STATE UNIVERSITY – SARMIENTO CAMPUS
however, worked in the opposite direction as well. For example, the relaxation of fiscal control
in December 1985 and early 1986, and other developments, caused a rapid upsurge in inflation,
bringing it close to the hyperinflation levels. Exchange rate stabilization and tight fiscal control
reestablished price stability almost immediately. As we shall see, one does not find rapid
America. An important implication of lack of inertia is the ability to stop inflation even in the
presence of a balance of payments crisis. Dealing with such a crisis in an environment without 44
price rigidities requires a change in relative prices which can in principle be achieved
In Bolivia the collapse of the tin market in October 1985 prompted massive devaluations
which led to only a temporary rise in inflation, as one would expect from an inertia less system.
In chronic-inflation countries, however, the big devaluations which accompany these crises
LOCAL LITERATURE
The small open economy model predicts that the choice of the foreign exchange rate
regime ultimately exposes or shields an economy from foreign inflation. On the one hand,
under a fixed exchange rate regime, the monetary authority is committed to maintain a constant
Money supply endogenously adjusts to maintain the fixed rate. Because of purchasing
power parity, the average domestic rate of inflation tracks the foreign inflation rate and
consequently, foreign price shocks affect domestic prices. On the other hand, under a flexible
exchange rate regime, the monetary authority allows the nominal exchange rate to adjust freely
BULACAN STATE UNIVERSITY – SARMIENTO CAMPUS
in response to foreign economic disturbances. The rate moves to maintain the domestic
currency price of foreign goods that would have changed in the presence of foreign price
shocks. Inflation is thus not transmitted from the large economy to the small open economy.
Yet, empirical evidences have shown conflicting results. Cheung and Yuen (2002) compare
the effects of U.S. inflation on Hong Kong and Singapore and find that between the two,
This result is consistent with standard theory considering that the foreign exchange
regime in Hong Kong operated under a currency board. The result on Singapore, however,
appears contradictory because even with a fully-flexible regime, its inflation is still affected
by U.S. price shocks. Two arguments are raised to explain this result: first, flexible regimes
do not necessarily insulate the economy from real shocks and second, the Monetary Authority
of Singapore manages the currency to maintain competitiveness and curb imported inflation.
The authors conclude that the exchange rate flexibility appears to absorb some of the impact
Feyzioglu and Willard (2006) conduct a study linking inflation in the U.S., China and
Japan. They find limited evidence that inflation in China leads to price changes in the United
States and Japan; however, inflation in the United States has an impact on Chinese inflation
Their finding is consistent with literature that suggests that under a relatively stable
exchange rate regime, inflation is propagated from the reserve currency country to other
economies.
BULACAN STATE UNIVERSITY – SARMIENTO CAMPUS
Shambaugh (2004), using a sample of 100 developing and industrial countries from 1973
through 2000, shows that a fixed exchange regime forces countries to follow the monetary
46
Crowder (1996), however, observes that during the post-Bretton Woods floating rate
period, there is strong evidence that inflation transmission among G-7 countries is at work;
moreover, transmission does not originate solely from the U.S., the reserve currency country
but from all seven countries. He listed several reasons to explain the transmission of inflation
over the floating rate regime which include the central bank interventions in the foreign
exchange market and the role of the U.S. dollar as the dominant reserve currency. Meanwhile,
Rogers (1990) has also showed that foreign inflation is positively transmitted to
countries with flexible exchange rate system. He is able to establish that the transmission of
foreign to domestic inflation during the transition to the new steady state is positively related
to the elasticity of demand for foreign currency, and that the absolute magnitude of this
transmission effect is positively related to the economy's initial stock of foreign real balances.
Finally, a number of studies argue that global factors are becoming more relevant for domestic
inflation determination across a broad range of countries regardless of the type of exchange
rate regime
Borio and Filardo (2007); Fitoussi (2007); Kohn (2006)). Quirk (1994) argues that there
is little relationship between the choice of exchange rate regime and inflation and concludes
that the stability of the exchange rate has generally been a by-product of other policy choices.
BULACAN STATE UNIVERSITY – SARMIENTO CAMPUS
47
LOCAL STUDIES
During the last four decades, the Philippines have operated under two different exchange
rate regimes. In 1973, the Philippine central bank formally adopted a managed float system,
intervening in the foreign exchange market to maintain monetary stability and preserve the
The operation of the central bank was not entirely independent as evidenced by
government officials dominating the monetary board (Lamberte, 2002). For roughly two
decades, the central bank had been officially targeting the exchange rate and this system was
Gochoco (1991) has shown that except in 1983 and 1984 when there were large discrete
devaluations of the peso, the nominal exchange rate remained very stable while money supply
The period of exchange rate targeting in the 80s coincided with external and internal
shocks in the economy resulting in unpredictable monetary policies and very irregular inflation
movement. External factors included the 1979 second oil price shock, the 1981-82 U.S.
recession and the 1983 world interest rate increase. Internal factors included the Aquino
assassination and a national balance of payment crisis leading to the 1983 debt moratorium
Lindsey (1984) and Yap (1996). Ultimately, it was the printing of money to finance
public sector debt and intervene on the peso that resulted in the high inflation in the mid80s,
BULACAN STATE UNIVERSITY – SARMIENTO CAMPUS
which reached 47 percent in 1984 (Gochoco-Bautista and Canlas, 2003). In 1993, the new 48
Central Bank Act was passed in Congress establishing the Bangko Sentral ng Pilipinas as an
The BSP's primary mandate was to maintain price stability conducive to a balanced and
sustainable growth of the economy. It adopted a policy-shift away from exchange rate targeting
to a new framework geared toward monetary aggregate targeting coupled with some form of
inflation targeting. Still, the exchange rate was effectively fixed within a narrow band. In 1994,
for example, the average exchange rate was Php. 26.40 to the dollar, in comparison to the 1996
rate of Php. 26.30 to the dollar. It was with this framework that the country went through the
Asian Financial Crisis which led to the sharp depreciation of the peso from a rate of Php. 26.40
to the U.S. dollar in June 1997 to Php. 42.70 in January 1998. The peso depreciation
sector which sent some businesses to bankruptcies and banks to hold greater amount of non-
performing loans. Inflation also started to increase in 1998. The BSP then pursued monetary
tightening so that by mid-1999, inflation was back to around 6 percent, the same level prior to
the crisis. After recovering from the crisis, the central bank authorities allowed a more freely
floating peso and officially announced adopting an inflation targeting framework in 2002.
Between 2002 and 2007, the average actual inflation was 4.9 percent which is between
the central banks lower and upper bound target of 4.3 percent and 5.3 percent (Gunigundo,
2009). These bounds were, however, broken at the height of the Great Recession when
inflation hit double-digit level during the third quarter of 2008. It has since then greatly
The economic structure of the Philippines has modified little or no over the past 2 and a
[*fr1] decades and portrays a lot of of a Latin American example economy: a school of thought
structure in which a small proportion of the labor force is employed in a capital-intensive and
highly protected manufacturing sector, while the larger share of the population is employed in
Over the past twenty-five years there has been a continuous struggle to maintain
constraint, a savings constraint and a fiscal constraint. The period 1970-79 is crucial since it
had been at now that the Philippines accumulated an enormous external debt burden that settled
the structure of policy in resultant years. This is the reason this. Period is included in the
analysis.
Vos and Yap (1996). The following is a narrative of policy regimes from 1970-1995
based on The basic data are shown on Table 2 while a summary is given in Table 3. The general
theme is that economic managers, consistent with the econometric evidence, sought to control
growth and changes that did take place in the 1970s and 1980s. The economy grew at an
average rage of over 5 percent during the 1970s. This reasonable growth performance was
program in the 1950s, and the massive support from public investment in infrastructure and
Based on external shocks affecting the economy, economic performance in the 1970s
external debt crisis which was built up during the late 1960s. An authoritarian regime is
by a boom in commodity prices for Philippine exports towards the end of this period, leading
to high growth rates by historical standards. Inflation accelerates to an annual average of 18.8
percent and is caused by cost-push factors (a major devaluation and the first oil price shock).
This period begins with adjustment to the firstoil price shock and falling prices of major
The supply-led external finance boom provides the desired adjustment finance associated
permits an investment growth light-emitting diode by import work industries and public
infrastructure and energy programs. Real GNP growth reaches 6.1 percent per annum.
Manufacturing activity has the highest growth rate. The period's exceptional growth is
structure and support from the expansion in public infrastructure. Encouraged by successful
changes elsewhere in the region and sector support of multilateral agencTes(the World Bank,
manufactured exports. The program is successful to the extent that the share of manufactured
Deeper analysis shows that this export success is largely illusory: for instance, exports
of semi-conductors contribute more than 10 percent of total export earnings, but less than 0.5
BULACAN STATE UNIVERSITY – SARMIENTO CAMPUS
percent of total value added and around 0.1 percent of employment. Such stylized facts also
apply to garments exports. Due to the high share of imported inputs in both sectors, backward
linkages with the rest of the economy are small, limiting the diffusion of the sectoral growth
dynamics.
Agriculture growth, though below the perfornance of the economy, is not unsatisfactory
compared with the performance of the sector in neighboring countries, reaching an all-time
high often percent growth in 1976. Agricultural performance is aided by government support
in the form of rural infrastructure and improved input supplies (fertilizers, credits and high-
The period additionally witnesses the aggressive expulsion of the general public sector
in the main through recently created public enterprises. The consolidated public sector deficit
reaches an all-time high of 9.3 percent of GNP in 1976. The massive expansion of externally
import substitution and, in part, by a program of political consolidation by the Marcos regime.
Some analysts contend that public enterprises were used as a passage of foreign loans which
GNP per capita almost doubles from US$ 336 in 1974 to US$ 586 in 1979; but this
growth does not seem to trickle down in equal shares to all population groups. For the
agricultural sector, relative prices (internal terms of trade) appear favorable at the start of the
period, but decline towards the end of the decade. Data on real wages are scarce and have to
be taken with caution, but available information on the real wage index for unskilled workers
suggests a declining trend since the beginning of the decade. Falling terms of trade for
52
agriculture, declining real wages, and employment growth telling behind output growth
(particularly in industry) underlie the shift in income distribution toward urban profit incomes
during this period of moderate to rapid GNP growth. Since the industrialization process is
concentrated in the domestic market and basic consumer goods, this shift in income
distribution signals an unbalanced sectoral growth path likely to run against demand
All in all those cited literature and foreign studies will help us know the root cause from
inflation to hyperinflation because those cited writings proves that ancient civilizations also
There are also many research and applied techniques that can be used to cure
hyperinflation but also because of the inconstant variables of the economy they tend to fail like
the orthodox approach of Latin-American and with that we can have benchmark about those
We always looked up to other countries that have good economic status; we tend to say
This argument was settled by the Filipinos who conducted their research about the
present condition of our economy they carefully analyzed the different indicators that affects
They also used formulas that they formulated to calibrate the damage and the level of
The relation of the following cited works on my research is to know the benchmark of
We should not also focus on monetary variables of the market, we should also dig more
on behavior of the customers their buying behavior and their preferences, their purchasing
power and their financial status because everything that affecting the economy must be covered
54
Chapter 3
RESEARCH METHODOLOGY
BULACAN STATE UNIVERSITY – SARMIENTO CAMPUS
instrument, and data gathering procedure and the statistical treatment and interpretation of data
for the reliability and validity of the study. This will determine different research instruments
The researcher will use a descriptive and quantitative method. The descriptive method
From 2015-2018.
measurements and the statistical, mathematical or numerical analysis of data collected through
computational techniques. Which the researchers measures the level of the consequences of
The target population of this study was the Retailers of Divisoria Manila from 2015-
2018. The researcher will use the Sloven Formula to compute the sample size of the population
of the respondents. 55
Also this research will be using a purposive sample; where the researchers choose
specific people within the population to use for a particular study or research project. This
BULACAN STATE UNIVERSITY – SARMIENTO CAMPUS
variety will, in turn, give you a better cross-section of information, with a total number of 250
respondents.
N=110
Ne2 = 100(0.05)2
N
n=
1 + 𝑁𝑒2
2015 62
2016 62
2017 62
2018 64
The Retailers of Divisoria Manila Philippines, and the Demographic Profile of the
respondents.
56
Instrumentation
BULACAN STATE UNIVERSITY – SARMIENTO CAMPUS
The research instruments that will be using for the study is the survey data to gather
information to the Retailers of Divisoria Manila. The survey has 25 questions which includes
the demographic profile and the current status of the retailers in Divisoria,Manila.
The Data will be collected by soliciting the survey forms. Also the researcher will be
The Frequency Count Percentage where all the survey questionnaires were collected
and analyzed and the statistical formula used in the survey questionnaire was the percentage
percentage;
𝑓
𝑃= 𝑥100
𝑛
Where in;
P= Percentage
In determining the sample size the researcher will be using the formula
𝑛
𝑛=
1 + Ne2
Where in:
n= sample size
N= population size
e = Margin of error.
58
BIBLIOGRAPHY
BULACAN STATE UNIVERSITY – SARMIENTO CAMPUS
Books
A. Balisacan, and H. Hill. . (2003). Policies, and Challenges. New York: Oxford University
Press.
Chadwick, H. (2001). “Evoi: On Taking Leave of Antiquity.” In The Oxford History of the
Roman World. . Oxford: . (Oxford, Oxford University Press.
Chauveau, M. (n.d.). Egypt in the Age of Cleopatra: History and Society under the Ptolemies.
New York: Ithaca, New York: Cornell University Press, 200.
Feldman, G. D. (1996). The great disorder politics, economics, and society in the German
inflation. New York: Oxford Univ.
Fergusson, A. (2010). When money dies : the nightmare of deficit spending, devaluation, and
hyperinflation in Weimar Germany . New York City: New York: PublicAffairs. .
Fischer, W. (2010 ). A Law and Economics Approach . : Eul-Verlag Köln. ISBN 978-3-89936-
931-1.
Fitoussi, J. (2007). Globalization and Inflation. European Parliament Committee for Economic
and Monetary Affairs Briefing. Europe.
59
Gochoco-Bautista, M.S. & Canlas, D. . (2003). Monetary and Exchange Rate Policy in The
Philippine Economy: Development,.
Gregory, A. & Hansen, B. . (1996). Residual-based Tests for Cointegration in Models with
Regime Shifts. Journal of Econometrics,, 70, 99-126.
Hatemi-J, A. (2008). Test for Cointegration with Two Unknown Regime Shifts with an
Application to Financial Market.
Kohn, D. (2006). The Effects of Globalization on Inflation and their Implications for Monetary
Policy. . Federal Reserve Bank of Boston . Boston.
Lamberte, M. (2002). Central Banking in the Philippines: Then, Now and the Future.
Philippine Institute for Development Studies . Manila.
Malchow, Joseph and P. Thiel. (2011). “The Quantitative Easing (and Fall) of the Roman
Empire.” . Sovereignty, Technology, and Global Change. Winter .
60
Marks, S. ( 2003. ). The Illusion of Peace. New York: Palgrave Macmillan.
Matthews, John. John Boardman, Jasper Griffin, and Oswyn Murray. (2003). “Roman Life and
Society.”. Germany.
BULACAN STATE UNIVERSITY – SARMIENTO CAMPUS
Max, S. (1980). The penniless billionare. New York: New York Times.
Temin, P. (2006). “The Economy of the Early Roman Empire.”. Journal of Economic
Perspectives., 138.
61
SURVEY QUESTIONNAIRE
BULACAN STATE UNIVERSITY – SARMIENTO CAMPUS
Instruction: Answer the following question truthfully use the space provided for
your answer.
NOTE: Please put check on your answer Strongly Disagree Agree Strongly
Disagree 2 3 Agree
1 4
1. How Hyperinflation affects the
retailer in Divisoria?
1.1 Does Hyperinflation affect your sales?
1.2 Does Hyperinflation lower your cost of
living?
1.3 Does Hyperinflation lower your
purchasing power?
1.4 Does Hyperinflation Cripple your
operation?
1.5 Does Hyperinflation make you poor?
2. What are the approaches used by the
retailers to ease the effects of
hyperinflation in their business?
2.1 Do you consider the by-the-book steps as
a cure to hyperinflation?
2.2 Do you consider the traditional steps as a
cure to hyperinflation?
2.3 Do you consider the systematical steps as
a cure to hyperinflation?
2.4 Do you consider the “through
experience” steps as a cure to
hyperinflation?
2.5 Do you consider the “Self-taught “steps
as a cure to hyperinflation?
3. What are the approaches of
customers to Hyperinflation in terms
of;
3.1 Do you buy a certain products or services
base on their price?
BULACAN STATE UNIVERSITY – SARMIENTO CAMPUS 62
63
SURVEY QUESTIONNAIRE
Panuto: Sagutan ang mga sumusunod na katanungan ng tama at tapat. Ilagay ang
sagot sa patlang.
PAALAL: Bigyan ng tsek ang iyong sagot sa Strongly Disagree Agree Strongly
kahon. Disagree 2 3 Agree
1 4
1. Paano nakaka-apekto ang
Hyperinflation sa mga tinder ng
Divisoria?
1.1 Nakaka-apekto ba ang Hyperinflation sa
inyong benta ?
1.2 Nakaka-apekto ba ang Hyperinflation sa
halaga ng inyong pamumuhay?
1.3 Nakaka-apekto ba ang Hyperinflation sa
kakayahan ninyo pang pinansyal?
1.4 Nakaka-apekto ba ang Hyperinflation sa
inyong negosyo?
1.5 mas nanging mahirap kaba dahil sa
Hyperinflation?
2. Ano-Ano ang mga pamamaraang
ginagamit ng mga tinder laban sa
Hyperinflation?
2.1 Mas Epektibo bang solusyon ang Book-
by-book na pamamaraan upang wakasan
ang Hyperinflation?
2.2 Mas Epektibo bang solusyon ang
Tradisyunal na pamamaraan upang
wakasan ang Hyperinflation?
2.3 Mas Epektibo bang solusyon ang
sistematikong na pamamaraan upang
wakasan ang Hyperinflation?
BULACAN STATE UNIVERSITY – SARMIENTO CAMPUS