ARE WE RUNNING

OUT OF ENERGY?
 Energy Units
• British thermal unit (Btu):
The amount of energy required to raise the
temperature of 1 lb of water by 1oF

• Quadrillion Btu (Quad)

1 Quad = 1015 Btu

• Calorie
The amount of energy required to raise the
temperature of 1 gram of water by 10C.

1 Btu = 251.996 calories

 Should we be worried?
• YES.

• Because:
• (1) USA is the largest consumer of energy in the world, both
in terms of total quads (~25% of the world’s total) and per
capita consumption.
• (2) USA domestic reserves of crude oil and natural gas are
very low and they are non-renewable
• (3) We have abundant reserves of coal, but coal use has its
own problems.
• (4) The future of nuclear energy is uncertain.
• (5) Cost-competitive alternate sources of energy have yet to
be developed.
U.S. Consumption in the Form of Electricity
Figure BX14.1–2

14-24 Source: U.S. Energy Information Administration.

Remaining
nonrenewable
world energy
resources
 Resources vs. Reserves
• Resources = the total quantity of a commodity
that may be reasonably expected from a
consideration of historical experience, geology,
and technology.

• Reserves = the part of resources that is identified

and can be exploited at a profit under the existing
conditions of cost, price and technology.

• (Total) Resources
= Reserves + Potential Resources
 Factors to be considered for
any energy resource
• Resources — How much is there?
(geological availability)

• Reserves — How much of the resource is available for use?

(exploration, technology, economic viability)

• Longevity — How long will the reserves/resources last?

(reserves, annual production)

• Cost to the consumer — Can we afford it?

(cost of production, supply vs. demand)

• Environmental impact — potential/known problems

(mining, processing, transport, end-use)
 Our Energy Resources

• A. Conventional Resources (non-renewable)

(a) Fossil Fuels
Crude oil
Natural gas
Coal
(b) Hydroelectric Power (renewable)
(c) Nuclear Power (non-renewable)

• B. Alternate Resources
•
U.S. Energy Consumption, 1949–1999
Figure 13.2

13-3 Source: U.S. Energy Information Administration, Annual Energy Review 1999, Department of Energy.
U.S. Sources of Energy Production
(US DOE, 2002)
• Fossil Fuels - 86%
• Nuclear - 8%
• Hydroelectric - 2%
• Biofuels - 3.3%
• Geothermal - 0.5%
• Wind farms - 0.1%
• Solar - 0.1%
U.S. Energy Production by Energy Source
Figure 13.6

NGPL (Natural gas plant liquids) = liquid fuels produced during

refining/processing of natural gas

13-6 Source: Annual Energy Review 1999, U.S. Energy Information Administration, Department of Energy.
Energy usage in the United States, 1850-2000
Glen Canyon Dam Hydroelectric Project
Figure 14.26

14-20 Source:Courtesy of Carla W. Montgomery.

Hydropower Generation in U.S.
Figure 14.27

14-21 Source: 1995 Estimated Water Use in the United States, U.S. Geological Survey.
World Energy
Production by Source
Figure 14.1

Note that about 85%

of the world’s energy
production is from
fossil fuels, and
about 65% from
crude oil and
natural gas.

Do you think this

pattern will change
in the near future?

14-2 Source: Data from International Energy Outlook 2000.

Shares of fossil and non-fossil
fuels in energy consumption
for selected countries

Why is hydropower so important

in Norway?

Why do France and Sweden

have chosen to rely so
heavily on nuclear power?
World Energy
Consumption
Projections
Figure 14.4

Note that in
just 50 years
world energy
consumption
is projected
to increase
by about 200%,
and by about
35% during the
next 15 years!

14-5 Source: International Energy Outlook 2000.

Actual and
Projected
Vehicle
Ownership
Figure 14.3

How many
vehicles are
on the road
in the U.S.
today?

14-4 Source: International Energy Outlook 2000.

 Reality Check — Energy Resources
• 1. Very uneven global distribution.
The overall pattern of distribution is not likely to
change in the foreseeable future.

• 2. Major producing countries of energy are not necessarily

major consumers.
Domestic production is largely a function of reserves,
and standard of living.

• 3. The price to the consumer is generally determined by

demand vs. supply.
Other factors: taxes, politics (especially for oil).

• 4. Fossil fuels are non-renewable resources.

•
CRUDE OIL AND NATURAL GAS
 Formation of Crude Oil
and Natural Gas Deposits
Accumulation of marine microorganisms
Burial of organic matter by sediments
Cooking of the organic matter leading to
generation of hydrocarbons ranging from heavy
oils to natural gas (CH4)
(petroleum is one of the many products obtained
from the refining of crude oil)

• Migration of oil and gas from the source rocks

(marine clastic sediments of low permeability)

• Trapping — Blocking of the migration by “traps”,

suitable geologic structures comprised of
permeable rocks (e,g., sandstones) capped by
impermeable rocks (e.g., shale)
Process of Petroleum Maturation
Figure 13.3

13-4 Source: Simplified from J.Watson, Geology and Man. 1983 Allen and Unwin, Inc.
 Types of oil and gas traps

• 1. Anticlinal structures

• 2. Fossilized coral reefs

• 3. Fault traps

• 4. Stratigraphic traps

• 5. Salt domes
Types of Oil and Gas Traps
“Traps” for crude oil and natural gas
World Oil and Gas Reserves (January, 1999)
Figure 13.5

Why is the OPEC

so powerful?

Source: Averages of Estimates in Oil and Gas Journal and World Oil, as summarized in International Energy Annual 1999, U.S.
13-5 Energy Information Administration.
World Population of Oil (Figure 13.7)
King Hubert’s projection of US oil production

13-7 Source: Projections from M. King Hubbert, “The Energy Resources of the Earth,” Scientific American, Sept. 1971, p. 69.
 Calculation of Expiration Time
(Longevity) of Resources
• The calculation depends on assumptions used:

• 1. (Static) Expiration Time (Static Index)

Assumptions: constant (static) reserves,

constant (static) annual production

ET = Reserve (R )/ Annual Production (P)

[also called the R/P ratio]

How relaible is this calculated number?

 Expiration Time (contd.)
• 2. Exponential Expiration Time (Exponential Index)

S = static index

(a) Assumptions: constant reserves, but annual production

increases at a constant rate of x% per year

EET = ln (sx + 1) / ln (1 + x)

(b) Assumptions: reserves increases by a factor of m per

year, but annual production increases at a constant rate of
x% per year

EET = ln (msx + 1) / ln (1 + x)
 Longevity (Expiration Time) of
World and US Crude Oil Reserves
Reserves Ann Prod ET (yrs)

• CRUDE OIL (Data for year 2001)

• USA 21.8 bbls 5.83 mbls/day 22/2 = 11

x 360 days
=2.1 bbls/yr

• World 1,017 bbls 74.51mbls/day 1017/27

x 360 days =38
=26.8 bbls/yr
mbls = million barrels
bbls = billion barrels
1 barrel = 42 gallons
 Longevity (Expiration Time) of
World and US Natural Gas Reserves
Reserves Ann Prod ET

• NATURAL GAS (Data for year 2001)

• USA 261.3 tcf 17.7 tcf/yr 261/17.7 = 15 yr

• World 5150 tcf 237 bcf/yr 5150/85 = 61 yr

x 360 days
= 85.3 tcf/yr

tcf = trillion cubic feet

bcf = billion cubic feet
COAL
 Formation of Coal

• Burial of terrestrial plant debris

• Cooking of the plant material due to increased

temperature and pressure — Formation of
different ranks of coal.
Formation of Coal
 Ranks of coal

Also, generally, higher the rank of coal, lower the ash content
and the moisture content.
World Coal Reserves
Figure 13.15

World reserves (2000)

= 1,088 billion tons

U.S. reserves (2000)

= 276 billion tons

Figures in parenthesis
indicate the % share of
energy consumption
contributed by coal

13-18 Source: Data from International Energy Annual 1999, U.S. Energy Information Administration, Department of Energy.
Coal fields of the United States
Surface and
Underground
Mining Parallels
Figure 13.18

13-21 Source: Data from Annual Energy Review 1999, U.S. Energy Information Administration, Department of Energy.
Projected World Coal Production (Figure 13.16)
We are still about 100 years away from the peak coal production
at ~ 18 billion tons, but can we handle the environmental impact?

Source: Data from M. King Hubbert, “The Energy Resources of the Earth,” Scientific American, Sept. 1971, p. 69. Actual
13-19 production data to 1995 from Annual Energy Review 1995, U.S. Energy Information Administration.
 Longevity (Expiration Time) of
World and USA Coal Reserves
Reserves Ann Prod ET (years)

• Data for year 2001

• USA 275 b tons 1,076 m tons 275/1.076 = 256

• World 1,088 b tons 4,773 m tons 1088/4.773 = 228

• b = billion
• m = million
 HOW TO ENSURE THE FUTURE
SUPPLY OF ENERGY?

• Basic Strategies:

• 1. Extend longevity of crude oil and natural gas

• 2. Use more coal

• 3. Plan for an increased share of nuclear energy

• 4. Develop alternate energy resources

 1. Extending longevity of oil and gas
• What can we do?
• A. Increase reserves
• (a) Maximum utilization of existing operations:
(i) Enhanced recovery of crude oil (additional 20-40%)
from existing oilfields
(ii) Recovery of coal-bed methane
(iii) Production of synfuels from coal

• (b) Find additional reserves through exploration

Availability of federal land for exploration
Incentives for large, risky investments
Infrastructure support from the government
Government protection against unfair trade practice
Proposed Alternative
Route of Pipeline
Figure 18.18B

Source: After D.A. Brew, Environmental Impact Analysis: The Example of the Trans-Alaska Pipeline, U.S. Geological Survey
18-20 Circular 695, 1974.
Route of the
Trans-Alaska
Pipeline
Figure 18.18A

Source: After D.A. Brew, Environmental Impact Analysis: The Example of the Trans-Alaska Pipeline, U.S. Geological Survey
18-19 Circular 695, 1974.
 Extending longevity of oil and gas (contd.)
• B. Decrease consumption of oil and gas (Conservation)
through
Persuasion
Legislation and enforcement
Real cost-based pricing of oil and gas

(i) Better fuel efficiency for automobiles

(CAFÉ)
(ii) Ride-share arrangements
(iii) Better mass transit systems
(iv) Use gasohol (and alcohol) instead of oil
(v) Higher gasoline tax??

• C. Continue to rely on imports

Mileage of Passenger Cars has Risen
Figure BX13.1–3

But the U.S.

consumers
are increasingly
in favor of
SUVs!

13-14 Source: U.S. Energy Information Administration.

Correlation/Gas Price and Gas Consumption
Figure 13.11

Is there a
Correlation?

13-11 Source: After World Resources Institute, 1992 Information Please Environmental Almanac, p. 68.
Motor Gasoline Price and Consumption (Figure BX13.1–2)
Is there a correlation between price and consumption?

13-13 Source: U.S. Energy Information Administration.

Crude-Oil Price Fluctuations (Figure BX13.1–1)
Can you relate the price peaks to specific world events?

13-12 Source: U.S. Energy Information Administration.

Strategic
Petroleum Reserve
Figure 13.8

Role of SPR:
(1)Emergency Supply
(2) Price control

13-8 Source: Annual Energy Review 1999, U.S. Energy Information Administration, Department of Energy.
 2. Use more coal
• Large reserves and well-established technology,
but a significant increase in production in USA
faces other problems:

• 1. Shortage of skilled labor

Coal mining is a dirty, hazardous, and not
particularly well-paying profession
• 2. Inadequate railroad transportation facilities
• 3. Burning of coal is the main reason for acid rain
and an increased level of CO2 (a greenhouse gas)
in the atmosphere
 ENVIRONMENTAL IMPACTS OF
FOSSIL FUEL UTILIZATION
• Crude Oil
Oil spills (remember the Exxon-Valdez spill)
Air pollution from automobile exhausts (N-gases and
C-gases)
• Natural Gas
Very little environmental damage (the cleanest burning
fuel)
• Coal
Ugly landscape from strip mining (reclamation is now
mandatory
Fire and collapse in underground mines
Black lung disease
Release of particulates (fly ash), S-gases, and C-gases
to the atmosphere
Oil Tanker Port at Valdez
Figure 13.12A

13-15 Source:Courtesy of Carla W. Montgomery.

Beach Cleanup in Prince
William Sound
Figure 13.13

13-17 Source: Alaska State Archive slide, courtesy Oil Spill Public Information Center.
Abandoned Coal Strip Mine in Illinois
Figure 13.20

13-23 Source: Photograph by Arthur Greenberg, courtesy of EPA/National Archives.

Rainbow Coal Strip Mine
Figure 13.21

13-24 Source: Photograph by H.E. Malde, USGS Photo Library, Denver, CO.
Coal-Mine Fatalities Drop
Figure 13.19

13-22 Source: U.S. Bureau of Mines, Minerals Today, Oct. 1991, p. 19.
Average
emissions
per year
from
energy
sources
ALTERNATE ENERGY RESOURCES

• The next topic for discussion

THE END
Sea Lions on Buoy in Prince William Sound
Figure 13.12B

13-16 Source:Courtesy of Carla W. Montgomery.

Daily Per-Capita Consumption of
Energy
Figure 13.1

13-2 Source: Data from Earl Cook, “The Flow of Energy in an Industrialized Society,” Scientific American, © 1971.
Distribution of U.S. Coal Fields
Figure 13.17

13-20 Source: U.S. Geological Survey.

Proposed Alternative
Route of Pipeline
Figure 18.18B

Source: After D.A. Brew, Environmental Impact Analysis: The Example of the Trans-Alaska Pipeline, U.S. Geological Survey
18-20 Circular 695, 1974.
Underground Coal Mine
Fire in WY
Figure CO13

13-1 Source: Photograph by C.R. Dunrud, USGS Photo Library, Denver, CO.