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Volumetrics

Mark Bentley
AGR TRACS Training
Calculating Stock Tank Oil Initially In Place (STOIIP)

Gross rock volume GRV m3


x
Net-to-gross ratio NTG fraction
x
Porosity Φ fraction
x
Oil saturation Soi fraction
x
Shrinkage 1/Bo fraction
=
STOIIP m3 / barrels
Volumes step 1 – create a contact

Execute
Volumes step 2 – run process under utilities

Execute
Volumes step 3 – post-process in Excel

Execute
Important – understand the model (geology and stats)

Execute
Adjust property models to fit your PP interpretation

Execute
1. By using 2. By
the property adjusting
calculator, the
or .. geostats, or
..

3. By adjusting
the underlying
stats and re-
running the
geostats (the
best way)
Model-based uncertainty: 2 fundamental approaches

Deterministic
All inputs are specified; no
element of chance

Stochastic
Treated as synonymous with
‘probabilistic’; inputs have an
element of random selection
more
more

stochastic
deterministic

Chance
Best guess

Dice
Sensitivities

complexity
cases

Monte Carlo
Low-Mid-High

Field Gross Gas Production Rate, MMscf/d


0
100
200
300
400
500
600
700

01/01/2005

01/01/2007

01/01/2009

01/01/2011

01/01/2013

01/01/2015

01/01/2017

01/01/2019

01/01/2021

01/01/2023

01/01/2025

01/01/2027

01/01/2029

01/01/2031

01/01/2033
Date
model

01/01/2035

01/01/2037

01/01/2039
scenarios

01/01/2041
realisations

01/01/2043

01/01/2045
Deterministic

01/01/2047

01/01/2049
Field Total Gross Gas Production rate Uncertainty

01/01/2051
Stochastic model
P90
P50
P10

01/01/2053

01/01/2055

01/01/2057

01/01/2059

01/01/2061
You choose
Different companies, different approaches

Best Guess
Anchored on a preferred ‘base case’

Canada in
general

Statoil
Exxon

BP
Total
BG Shell
IFP
Chevron TRACS

Multiple Stochastic Multiple Deterministic


Models selected by building Models designed manually based on
‘equiprobable’ realisations from a base discrete alternative concepts
case model
Choice 1 – multiple determinism
Choice 2 – stochastics (Monte-Carlo simulation)

Crystal Ball
@RISK
GEOX
REP
Excel

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