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In this section I will investigate forces that shaped the decisions voters
made in the 23 June 2016 referendum on the UK’s continued
membership in the European Union. Employing data gathered in a
national panel survey conducted before and after the referendum,
analyses document that economic- and immigration-focused benefit-cost
evaluations strongly influenced voters’ decisions. Risk assessments,
emotional reactions to EU membership and leader image heuristics were
other major proximate forces driving the choices voters made. National
identities were influential as well, but operated further back in the set of
forces affecting attitudes towards the EU. The June 23rd Brexit decision
thus reflected a diverse mix of calculations, emotions and cues. Given
the close division of the vote, it is plausible that a substantial change in
any of these factors could have changed the referendum outcome.