POLL EMBARGOED UNTIL 26TH MARCH 2019, 6 AM EST

UltraPoll - Ontario Edition

Voter Intentions & Party Leaders’
Favourability Ratings
Ontarians’ opinions of changes to
autism programs
26th March 2019
METHODOLOGY
The analysis in this report is based on results of a
survey conducted between March 21st to 22nd,
2019 among a sample of 1290 adults, 18 years
of age or older, living in Ontario. The survey was
conducted using automated telephone interviews
(Smart IVR). Respondents were interviewed on
landlines and cellular phones.
The sampling frame was derived from both
a national telephone directory compiled by
Mainstreet Research from various commercially
available sources and random digit dialing. The
part of the survey that dialed from the directory
was conducted as a stratified dial of the following
regions; Toronto (also known as the 416 region),
the Greater Toronto Area (also known as the 905
region), South Central Ontario, Southwestern
Ontario, Eastern Ontario, and Northern Ontario. In
the case of random digit dials, respondents were
asked the additional question of what region of
the province they resided in.
The survey was conducted by Mainstreet Research
and was not sponsored by a third party.
The margin of error for this survey is +/- 2.73%
and is accurate 19 times out of 20.
(full methodology appears at the end of this
report)
ABOUT MAINSTREET
With 20 years of political experience in all three
levels of government, President and CEO Quito
Maggi is a respected commentator on international
public affairs.
Differentiated by its large sample sizes, Mainstreet
Research has provided accurate snapshots of
public opinion, having predicted a majority NDP
government in Alberta, and was the only polling firm
to correctly predict a Liberal majority government
in the 2015 federal election. Mainstreet also
accurately predicted the 2018 Ontario election and
was the first to predict that a CAQ majority win in
the 2018 Quebec election. Mainstreet Research
is a member of the World Association for Public
Opinion Research and meets international and
Canadian publication standards.
CONTACT INFORMATION
In Ottawa:
Quito Maggi, President
quito@mainstreetresearch.ca
In Toronto:
Dr. Joseph Angolano, Vice President
joseph@mainstreetresearch.ca
Find us online at:
www.mainstreetresearch.ca
twitter.com/MainStResearch
facebook.com/mainstreetresearch
ONTARIANS DISAPPROVE OF FORD AUTISM CUTS

26 March 2019 (Ottawa, ON) – A majority of Ontarians do not approve of the changes that the Ford
government has made to provincial autism programs, while support for the PC government has
dipped below 40% for the first time since the provincial election.

Those are the findings from Mainstreet Research’s latest UltraPoll, a conglomeration of ten provincial
polls. The poll surveyed 1290 Ontarians between March 21st to 22nd, 2019. The poll has a margin of
error of +/- 2.73% and is accurate 19 times out of 20.

“Ontarians are strongly opposed to the Ford government’s changes to the autism programs,” said
Quito Maggi, President and CEO of Mainstreet Research. “Parents of autistic children have been very
vocal in their opposition to the PC government’s measures and it looks like that Ontarians generally
also disagree with Ford on this issue.”

Just over 54% of Ontarians surveyed said that they disapprove of the changes to the autism programs,
with 28% saying they approve of the measures. Just under 18% said that they were not sure.

The poll also surveyed Ontarians who they would vote for if an election were held today. Among
decided and leaning voters, the PCs led by Doug Ford have 34.4% (-7% from January), while the
NDP led by Andrea Horwath come in with 26.6% (-0.4%). The Liberals with John Fraser at the helm
have 26% (+3.4%), while Mike Schreiner and the Greens have 9% (+2.4%).

“The PCs have taken a dramatic slide since January - so much so that they might not win a majority
if an election were held today,” added Maggi. “The Liberals have had the biggest gains thanks to a
surge in support in Toronto.”

Each party leader’s favourability ratings remained roughly the same from where they were in January.
No party leader enjoys a positive net favourability rating, but Andrea Horwath has the best rating of
-0.7%, while Ford’s net rating has slipped to -30.3% (from -21.5% in January).

Ford’s net favourability rating stands at -21.5%, while opposition leader Andrea Horwath’s net rating
is -0.5%. Interim Liberal leader John Fraser has a net rating of -6.8%, while Green Party leader Mike
Schreiner’s net favourability rating is -3.8%.

“Ford’s decline in favourability this month closely follows the fall in PC support among Ontario voters”,
concluded Maggi.

-30-

For additional information or to arrange an interview, contact:

Dr. Joseph Angolano, 647-894-1552 - joseph@mainstreetresearch.ca
If a provincial election were held today, which
All Voters party would you vote for?

12.2%

3.2%
30.2%

8.3%

All Voters

22.5%

Alland
Decided Voters
Leaning Voters 23.6%

3.6%
13.3%
Progressive Conservatives NDP
9.4% Liberals Greens Another Party Undecided

2.8%

34.4%
5.7% 38%

26% Decided All

and Voters
Leaning Voters

17%

26.6%
23.2%

Progressive Conservatives
Progressive NDP
Conservatives Liberals
NDP Greens
Liberals Another Party
Greens

Another Party Undecided

If a provincial election were held today, which party would you
vote for?
(regional breakouts)

20.7%
27.3%
Toronto

39.6%
9.5%
2.9%

43.0%
22.6%
GTA

23.6%
7.8%
3.0%

31.5%
27.5%
Eastern

26.5%
7.3%
7.2%

45.3%
South Central

27.5%
16.0%
8.3%
2.9%

36.5%
Southwestern

27.7%
17.4%
15.3%
3.1%

31.4%
35.3%
North

27.4%
1.5%
4.5%

0 5 10 15 20 25 30 35 40 45 50

Progressive Conservatives NDP Liberals Greens Another Party

 Do you have a favourable or unfavourable
opinion of the following party leaders?
ord Andrea Horwath

14.5%

24.9% 24.3%

5.4% 33.6%

Doug Ford Andrea Horwath

7.8%

aser 55.2%
Mike Schreiner 34.3%

Brian Pallister
Favourable opinion
Unfavourable opinion Not familiar Not sure
Favourable opinion Unfavourable opinion Not familiar Not s
14.5% 13.5%

21.6%
36.6% 26%
39.5%
15.9%
17.8%
John Fraser Mike Schreiner
6.4%
Brian Pallister

28.3% 34%

45.9%

Favourable opinion Unfavourable opinion Not familiar Not sure

Favourable opinion Unfavourable opinion Not familiar Not s

Favourable Unfavourable Not familiar Not sure

 Based on what you have seen and heard, do you
agree with the changes to the programs for autistic
children proposed by the provincial government?

10.1%
17.9%

10.1%
17.9%
17.9%

17.9%

33.7%
33.7%

20.5%20.5%

Strongly agree Somewhat agree Somewhat disagree Strongly disagree Not sure

y agree Somewhat agree Somewhat disagree Strongly disagree

Breakout Tables
If a provincial election were held today, which party would you vote for?
(all voters)
Greater South
18- 35- 50- Eastern Southwestern Northern
Total Male Female 65+ Toronto Toronto Central
34 49 64 Ontario Ontario Ontario
Area Ontario
Progressive
Conservatives led by 30.2% 39.3% 21.4% 21.1% 31.3% 37.8% 31.2% 18.5% 38.3% 28.2% 40.8% 30.2% 26.6%
Doug Ford
NDP led by Andrea
23.6% 20.6% 26.5% 25.9% 25.8% 19.9% 22.6% 24.1% 20.3% 23.2% 25.2% 25% 30.1%
Horwath
Liberals led by John
22.5% 20% 25% 24.6% 21.9% 20.7% 23% 34.2% 20.7% 23% 14.5% 15.5% 21.2%
Fraser
Greens led by Mike
8.3% 6.6% 10% 10.8% 7.6% 7.4% 7.1% 8.4% 7.1% 7.1% 7.2% 13.1% 1.4%
Schreiner
Another Party 3.2% 2.1% 4.3% 3.8% 3.7% 2.2% 3.2% 2.7% 2.6% 6.4% 2.8% 2.5% 4%
Undecided 12.2% 11.4% 12.8% 13.9% 9.7% 12% 12.9% 12.1% 11% 12% 9.5% 13.7% 16.7%
Unweighted Frequency 1290 712 578 256 313 395 326 259 346 127 157 275 126
Weighted Frequency 1290 634 656 362 325 354 249 300 355 172 115 269 79

(leaning and undecided voters)

Greater South
18- 35- 50- Eastern Southwestern Northern
Total Male Female 65+ Toronto Toronto Central
34 49 64 Ontario Ontario Ontario
Area Ontario
Progressive
Conservatives led by 32.6% 42.1% 23.4% 24.7% 32.9% 39.1% 34.4% 19.3% 40.9% 30.7% 42.8% 34.7% 28%
Doug Ford
NDP led by Andrea
25.1% 21.4% 28.8% 28.1% 26.9% 21.1% 24.2% 25.5% 21.4% 26.8% 26% 26.3% 31.5%
Horwath
Liberals led by John
24.5% 22.1% 26.8% 26.7% 23.2% 23.1% 25.1% 36.9% 22.5% 25.7% 15.1% 16.6% 24.5%
Fraser
Greens led by Mike
8.9% 7% 10.6% 11.1% 8.2% 7.9% 7.7% 8.8% 7.4% 7.1% 7.9% 14.6% 1.4%
Schreiner
Another Party 3.4% 2.2% 4.6% 3.8% 3.7% 2.5% 3.9% 2.7% 2.8% 6.9% 2.8% 2.9% 4%
Undecided 5.5% 5.1% 5.8% 5.6% 5.1% 6.3% 4.7% 6.9% 5% 2.8% 5.5% 4.8% 10.6%
Unweighted Frequency 1290 712 578 256 313 395 326 259 346 127 157 275 126
Weighted Frequency 1290 634 656 362 325 354 249 300 355 172 115 269 79

(decided and leaning voters)

Greater South
18- 35- 50- Eastern Southwestern Northern
Total Male Female 65+ Toronto Toronto Central
34 49 64 Ontario Ontario Ontario
Area Ontario
Progressive
Conservatives led by 34.4% 44.3% 24.8% 26.1% 34.5% 41.7% 36% 20.7% 43% 31.5% 45.3% 36.5% 31.4%
Doug Ford
NDP led by Andrea
26.6% 22.6% 30.5% 29.7% 28.5% 22.6% 25.5% 27.3% 22.6% 27.5% 27.5% 27.7% 35.3%
Horwath
Liberals led by John
26% 23.3% 28.5% 28.4% 24.4% 24.6% 26.4% 39.6% 23.6% 26.5% 16% 17.4% 27.4%
Fraser
Greens led by Mike
9.4% 7.4% 11.3% 11.7% 8.7% 8.4% 8.1% 9.5% 7.8% 7.3% 8.3% 15.3% 1.5%
Schreiner
Another Party 3.6% 2.4% 4.8% 4% 3.8% 2.7% 4.1% 2.9% 3% 7.2% 2.9% 3.1% 4.5%
Unweighted Frequency 1218 676 542 241 296 371 310 241 330 123 149 262 113
Weighted Frequency 1218 599 619 342 307 334 235 283 335 163 109 254 74
 Do you have a favourable or unfavourable opinion of Doug Ford?
Greater South
18- 35- 50- Eastern Southwestern Northern
Total Male Female 65+ Toronto Toronto Central
34 49 64 Ontario Ontario Ontario
Area Ontario
Favourable opinion 24.9% 34.4% 15.7% 21.5% 25% 27.2% 26.2% 18.8% 30% 19.1% 31.7% 26% 23.6%
Unfavourable
55.2% 46.8% 63.3% 62% 57.3% 50.1% 49.6% 64.1% 46.1% 62% 50.3% 55.1% 54.5%
opinion
Not familiar with
5.4% 5.1% 5.7% 7.7% 4.3% 4.9% 4.4% 3.5% 4.5% 10.5% 5.2% 4.3% 9.9%
Doug Ford
Not sure 14.5% 13.7% 15.3% 8.9% 13.4% 17.8% 19.8% 13.6% 19.4% 8.4% 12.8% 14.6% 12%
Unweighted
1290 712 578 256 313 395 326 259 346 127 157 275 126
Frequency
Weighted
1290 634 656 362 325 354 249 300 355 172 115 269 79
Frequency

Do you have a favourable or unfavourable opinion of Andrea Horwath?

Greater South
18- 35- 50- Eastern Southwestern Northern
Total Male Female 65+ Toronto Toronto Central
34 49 64 Ontario Ontario Ontario
Area Ontario
Favourable opinion 33.6% 30.2% 37% 32.7% 34.7% 33.9% 33% 34.1% 27% 38.5% 33.1% 35.8% 44.4%
Unfavourable opinion 34.3% 41.1% 27.6% 27.4% 36.7% 37.9% 35.8% 30.1% 39.4% 34% 38.8% 33.5% 23.5%
Not familiar with
7.8% 6.7% 8.9% 12.2% 6.3% 6.2% 5.6% 7.7% 9.6% 9% 9.4% 4.5% 6.5%
Andrea Horwath
Not sure 24.3% 22% 26.5% 27.6% 22.3% 21.9% 25.5% 28.2% 24.1% 18.5% 18.6% 26.2% 25.5%
Unweighted
1290 712 578 256 313 395 326 259 346 127 157 275 126
Frequency
Weighted Frequency 1290 634 656 362 325 354 249 300 355 172 115 269 79

Do you have a favourable or unfavourable opinion of John Fraser?

Greater South
18- 35- 50- Eastern Southwestern Northern
Total Male Female 65+ Toronto Toronto Central
34 49 64 Ontario Ontario Ontario
Area Ontario
Favourable opinion 14.5% 12.9% 16% 16.2% 13.9% 14.9% 12.3% 20.5% 14.3% 12.4% 12.4% 9.9% 16.2%
Unfavourable opinion 21.3% 27.2% 15.6% 21.8% 22% 23% 17.3% 19.8% 20.4% 25.5% 18.6% 23.6% 17.9%
Not familiar with
17.1% 17.3% 16.9% 17% 18.6% 15.4% 17.7% 13.8% 17.2% 18.5% 22.6% 17.6% 16.3%
John Fraser
Not sure 47.1% 42.5% 51.5% 45% 45.6% 46.7% 52.7% 45.9% 48.1% 43.6% 46.5% 48.9% 49.7%
Unweighted
1127 669 458 183 269 362 313 199 301 141 153 204 129
Frequency
Weighted Frequency 1127 554 573 317 284 309 217 262 310 151 101 235 69

Do you have a favourable or unfavourable opinion of Mike Schreiner?

Greater South
18- 35- 50- Eastern Southwestern Northern
Total Male Female 65+ Toronto Toronto Central
34 49 64 Ontario Ontario Ontario
Area Ontario
Favourable opinion 13.5% 11.3% 15.6% 17.2% 11.6% 10.8% 14.2% 13.7% 13.7% 8.7% 12.8% 17.8% 8.2%
Unfavourable opinion 15.9% 19.7% 12.2% 12% 20.1% 16.4% 15.4% 14.7% 18.1% 17.5% 14.4% 15% 12.5%
Not familiar with
34% 32.5% 35.5% 38.4% 33.8% 33.6% 28.5% 32.1% 38.6% 36% 38.6% 27.2% 32.6%
Mike Schreiner
Not sure 36.6% 36.5% 36.7% 32.3% 34.5% 39.2% 41.9% 39.5% 29.6% 37.8% 34.2% 40% 46.6%
Unweighted
1290 712 578 256 313 395 326 259 346 127 157 275 126
Frequency
Weighted Frequency 1290 634 656 362 325 354 249 300 355 172 115 269 79
Based on what you have seen and heard, do you agree with the changes
to the programs for autistic children proposed by the provincial
government?
Greater South
18- 35- 50- Eastern Southwestern Northern
Total Male Female 65+ Toronto Toronto Central
34 49 64 Ontario Ontario Ontario
Area Ontario
Strongly agree 10.1% 12.5% 7.8% 9.3% 8.4% 10.4% 13.2% 11.5% 11.6% 5.1% 12.3% 8.9% 10.4%
Somewhat agree 17.9% 20.6% 15.2% 14.9% 18.5% 19.3% 19.4% 11.4% 20.1% 21.8% 23.6% 16.9% 18.5%
Somewhat
20.5% 20.7% 20.2% 20.6% 18.7% 21.6% 20.9% 21% 16.6% 25.4% 18% 24% 16.6%
disagree
Strongly
33.7% 27% 40.1% 37.4% 34.5% 32.4% 28.9% 37.9% 30.7% 33.8% 28.5% 35.3% 32.3%
disagree
Not sure 17.9% 19.2% 16.6% 17.8% 19.8% 16.4% 17.7% 18.2% 21% 13.9% 17.6% 15% 22.2%
Unweighted
1290 712 578 256 313 395 326 259 346 127 157 275 126
Frequency
Weighted
1290 634 656 362 325 354 249 300 355 172 115 269 79
Frequency
Questionnaire
If a provincial election were held today,
which party would you vote for?
(first four responses randomized)
The Progressive Conservative Party of Ontario
led by Doug Ford
The New Democratic Party of Ontario led by
Andrea Horwath
The Ontario Liberal Party led by John Fraser
The Green Party of Ontario led by Mike
Schreiner
Another party
Undecided
Which party are you leaning towards?
(only asked to respondents who said they
were undecided in the previous question -
first four responses randomized)
The Progressive Conservative Party of Ontario
led by Doug Ford
The New Democratic Party of Ontario led by
Andrea Horwath
The Ontario Liberal Party led by John Fraser
The Green Party of Ontario led by Mike
Schreiner
Another party
Undecided
We would now like to ask you your opinions
on the four leaders of the provincial parties
in the Ontario legislature.
(order of the following four questions
randomized)
Do you have a favourable or unfavourable
opinion of Doug Ford?
Favourable Opinion
Unfavourable Opinion
Not familiar with Doug Ford
Not Sure
Do you have a favourable or unfavourable
opinion of Andrea Horwath?
Favourable Opinion
Unfavourable Opinion
Not familiar with Andrea Horwath
Not Sure
Do you have a favourable or unfavourable
opinion of John Fraser?
Favourable Opinion
Unfavourable Opinion
Not familiar with John Fraser
Not Sure
Do you have a favourable or unfavourable
opinion of Mike Schreiner?
Favourable Opinion
Unfavourable Opinion
Not familiar with Mike Schreiner
Not Sure
As you might have heard, the Ford
government has announced that it would
revamp its programs for autistic children.
The government says that it will deliver
more funding for autism programs than the
previous government. However critics say
that the funding will come in one
lump sum, and could cause young children
at the low end of the autism spectrum to
get more government-funded help than
older children with greater needs. Based
on what you have seen and heard, do you
agree with the changes to the programs for
autistic children proposed by the provincial
government?
Strongly agree
Somewhat agree
Somewhat disagree
Strongly disagree
Not Sure
What is your gender?
Male
Female
What is your age group?
18 to 34 years of age
35 to 49 years of age
50 to 64 years of age
65 years of age or older
Ridings and Regions
The following shows the provincial electoral districts that pertain to each region in our breakouts.

Toronto (416) Mississauga East--Cooksville

Beaches--East York Mississauga--Erin Mills
Davenport Mississauga--Lakeshore
Don Valley East Mississauga--Malton
Don Valley North Mississauga--Streetsville
Don Valley West Newmarket--Aurora
Eglinton--Lawrence Oakville
Etobicoke Centre Oakville North--Burlington
Etobicoke North Oshawa
Etobicoke--Lakeshore Pickering--Uxbridge
Humber River--Black Creek Richmond Hill
Parkdale--High Park Simcoe North
Scarborough Centre Thornhill
Scarborough North Vaughan--Woodbridge
Scarborough Southwest Whitby
Scarborough--Agincourt York--Simcoe
Scarborough--Guildwood
Scarborough--Rouge Park Eastern Ontario
Spadina--Fort York Bay of Quinte
Toronto Centre Carleton
Toronto--Danforth Glengarry--Prescott--Russell
Toronto--St. Paul’s Haliburton--Kawartha Lakes--Brock
University--Rosedale Hastings--Lennox and Addington
Willowdale Kanata--Carleton
York Centre Kingston and the Islands
York South--Weston Lanark--Frontenac--Kingston
Leeds-Grenville-Thousand Islands and Rideau
Greater Toronto Area Lakes
Ajax Nepean
Aurora--Oak Ridges--Richmond Hill Northumberland--Peterborough South
Barrie--Innisfil Orléans
Barrie--Springwater--Oro-Medonte Ottawa Centre
Brampton Centre Ottawa South
Brampton East Ottawa West--Nepean
Brampton North Ottawa--Vanier
Brampton South Peterborough--Kawartha
Brampton West Renfrew--Nipissing--Pembroke
Burlington Stormont--Dundas--South Glengarry
Dufferin--Caledon
Durham South Central Ontario
King--Vaughan Brantford--Brant
Markham--Stouffville Flamborough--Glanbrook
Markham--Thornhill Haldimand--Norfolk
Markham--Unionville Hamilton Centre
Milton Hamilton East--Stoney Creek
Mississauga Centre Hamilton Mountain
Hamilton West--Ancaster--Dundas Sarnia--Lambton
Niagara Centre Simcoe--Grey
Niagara Falls Waterloo
Niagara West Wellington--Halton Hills
St. Catharines Windsor West
Windsor--Tecumseh
Southwestern Ontario
Bruce--Grey--Owen Sound Northern Ontario
Cambridge Algoma--Manitoulin
Chatham-Kent--Leamington Kenora--Rainy River
Elgin--Middlesex--London Kiiwetinoong
Essex Mushkegowuk--James Bay
Guelph Nickel Belt
Huron--Bruce Nipissing
Kitchener Centre Parry Sound--Muskoka
Kitchener South--Hespeler Sault Ste. Marie
Kitchener--Conestoga Sudbury
Lambton--Kent--Middlesex Thunder Bay--Atikokan
London North Centre Thunder Bay--Superior North
London West Timiskaming--Cochrane
London--Fanshawe Timmins
Oxford
Perth--Wellington
Methodology
The analysis in this report is based on results of a survey conducted between March 21st and 22nd,
2019 among a sample of 1290 adults, 18 years of age or older, living in Ontario. The survey was
conducted using Interactive Voice Recording. Respondents were interviewed on both landlines and
cellular phones. The survey is intended to represent the voting population of Ontario.

The survey was conducted by Mainstreet Research and was not sponsored by a third party.

The sampling frame was derived from both a national telephone directory compiled by Mainstreet
Research from various commercially available sources and random digit dialing.The survey that
dialed from the directory was conducted as a stratified dial of the following regions: Toronto (also
known as the 416 region), the Greater Toronto Area (also known as the 905 region), South Central
Ontario, Southwestern Ontario, Eastern Ontario, and Northern Ontario. In the case of random digit
dials, respondents were asked the additional question of what region of the province they resided
in. In both cases, respondents were dialed at random.

At least two attempts were made to complete an interview at every sampled telephone number. The
calls were staggered over times of day and two days to maximize the chances of making contact with
a potential respondent. Interviewing was also spread as evenly as possible across the field period.

The questionnaire used in this survey is available in this report and online at www.mainstreetresearch.
ca. Questions are asked as they appear in the release document. If a question is asked of a subset of
the sample a descriptive note is added in parenthesis preceding the question.

The sample was weighted by population parameters from the Canada 2016 Census for adults 18
years of age or older in Canada. The population parameters used for weighting are age, gender, and
region.

The margin of error for this poll is +/- 2.73% at the 95% confidence level. Margins of error are higher
in each subsample.

The margins of error for each subsample is as following: Males: +/- 3.67%, Females: +/- 4.08%, 18-
34 age group: +/- 6.12%, 35-49 age group: +/- 5.7%, 50-64 age group: +/- 5.09%, 65+ age group:
+/- 5.57%, Toronto: +/- 6.31%, Greater Toronto Area: +/- 5.39%, South Central Ontario: +/- 8.03%,
Southwestern Ontario: +/- 6.05%, Eastern Ontario: +/- 8.84%, Northern Ontario: +/- 9.22%

In addition to sampling error, one should bear in mind that the wording of questions and practical
difficulties in conducting surveys can introduce error or bias into the findings of opinion polls.