TRAFFIC VOLUME AND AXLE LOADS  

1. DESIGN LIFE OF PAVEMENTS

For a gravel surfaced road, an appropriate design life is 7 years, with proper maintenance.

In this context, “design life” does not mean that at the end of the period the pavement will be
completely worn out and in need of reconstruction; it means that towards the end of the period,
the pavement will need to be strengthened so that it can continue to carry traffic satisfactorily for
a further period.

2. ESTIMATION OF TRAFFIC

National Roads Traffic. Three national roads are in close proximity to the ends of the two
project roads. These include counts for:

 RN5, for the Ryabega - Kagitumba road

segment (light blue on map)
 RN13, the Ryabega-Nyagatare road
segment (light blue heading to
Nyagatare town)
 RN27, the Nyagasa-Ntoma road
segment (top yellow segment)

EGIS/BCEOM conducted a traffic count

study on the entire paved national road
network in 2010.1 A reasonable starting
point for future traffic composition may be to
use the results obtained for National Road
RN5 from that study, looking at the RN5
results closest to the project roads. The
Ryabega-Kagitumba section count was
taken at Ryabega position, at the junction of
National Road RN5 with the turn-off to
Nyagatare (RN13).

For reference, a map indicating by route

number the National and District roads in
Nyagatare, is shown in Figure x.

Figure x: Nyagatare National and District Road Maps

1
Traffic Counts; part of Road Maintenance Management System, EGIS/BCEOM, Contract 9.ACP.RW.012.
“Technical Assistance for Institutional Capacity Building in Road Maintenance and Auditing of
Programmes”.Ministry of Infrastructure, Republic of Rwanda, January 2010.
 The Ryabega count was for a seven-day period in early March 2010, and included night
volumes. This study yielded the following volumes and composition:

Table 6: Traffic Count on RN5 at Ryabega

Minibus
2 3
and Trailer Total w/o
Date Day Motorcycles Cars Pickups Bus axle axle Trailer TOTAL
Jeep Truck motorcycles
truck truck
4X4
3-Mar-10 Wed 83 18 12 157 6 24 0 0 0 217 300
4-Mar-10 Thu 77 25 7 178 7 30 0 1 0 248 325
5-Mar-10 Fri 97 24 5 144 6 45 2 0 0 226 323
6-Mar-10 Sat 85 28 8 149 10 33 2 0 0 230 315
7-Mar-10 Sun 62 24 5 151 6 46 0 0 1 233 295
8-Mar-10 Mon 77 14 2 143 6 23 1 0 1 190 267
9-Mar-10 Tue 56 10 5 107 7 30 0 0 0 159 215
AVG ADT 77 20 6 147 7 33 1 0 0 215 291
NIGHT 66 3 3 38 0 22 0 0 0 66 132
TOT ADT 143 23 9 185 7 55 1 0 0 281 423
Source: EGIS, 2010

The results indicate that the traffic composition on this national road includes a fairly high
proportion of motorcycles. There is also a very significant observed component of pedestrian
and bicycle traffic. Based on the study results, the traffic composition for RN5 at Ryabega is:

Table 7: Existing Traffic Composition on RN5 at Ryabega

Type %
Motorcycles 34%
Cars, pick-ups, minibus 51%
Trucks and Buses 15%
Source: EGIS, 2010

Closer to the beginning of the Nyagatare-Kijojo project road, EGIS/BCEOM also conducted a
traffic count study on National Road RN13, taken in Nyagatare. This count was also for a seven-
day period in early March 2010, and included night volumes. This study yielded the following
volumes and composition:
 Table 8: Traffic Count on RN13 at Nyagatare

Minibus
2 3
and Trailer Total w/o
Date Day Motorcycles Cars Pickups Bus axle axle Trailer TOTAL
Jeep Truck motorcycles
truck truck
4X4
3-Mar-10 Wed 263 38 28 332 36 45 2 0 0 481 744
4-Mar-10 Thu 245 53 15 329 35 63 0 2 2 499 744
5-Mar-10 Fri 226 43 21 267 35 43 2 0 2 413 639
6-Mar-10 Sat 221 59 22 198 43 53 1 0 0 376 597
7-Mar-10 Sun 221 48 21 196 34 27 0 0 1 327 548
8-Mar-10 Mon 174 32 24 192 29 38 3 3 1 322 496
9-Mar-10 Tue 315 31 23 252 37 75 0 0 0 418 733
AVG ADT 238 43 22 252 36 49 1 1 1 405 643
NIGHT 130 17 13 71 6 35 1 0 0 143 273
TOT ADT 368 60 35 323 42 84 2 1 1 548 916
Source: EGIS, 2010

Note however that not only is the total volume higher than that shown above for the RN5
junction at Ryabega, and for RN5 at Musenyi, both of which occur closer to Kigali than RN13,
but that every vehicle category is also higher. This in an indication that the traffic reported at
RN13 is of a local generation.

The results indicate that the traffic composition on this national road includes a fairly high
proportion of motorcycles. There is also a very significant observed component of pedestrian
and bicycle traffic. Based on the study results, the traffic composition for RN13 at Nyagatare is:

Table 9: Existing Traffic Composition on RN13 at Nyagatare 

Type %
Motorcycles 40%
Cars, pick-ups, minibus 46%
Trucks and Buses 14%
Source: EGIS, 2010

Feeder Road Traffic. ITEC Engineering Ltd conducted a traffic count which included the
unpaved former RN27, which consists in part of the Nyagatare- Kijojo Road, in 2012.2 Counts
were taken for seven consecutive days, in December 2012, and included a 24-hour count on
market day. The counts were conducted at four locations. Of these, one was south of Nyagatare,
and hence of little value in our analysis. The same applies to a count within the city limits of
Nyagatare, and a count off of the project road near Ntoma. This leaves one valid count station
along the Nyagatare- Kijojo Road just south of the Kijojo-Nyamiyonga Road. The results were
as follows:

2
ITEC Engineering Ltd., Consultancy Service for Traffic Count on Rwanda National Unpaved Roads: Final Report,
for Ministry of Infrastructure, Republic of Rwanda.
 Table 8: Traffic Count on RN27

RN27 location Motorcycles Light Heavy Total w/o Total

Vehicles Vehicles motorcycles*
“Nyagatare” (PK 47+000) 311 46 25 71 382
Source: ITEC, 2012

The results indicate that the present traffic volume is low, and that the composition includes a
very high proportion of motorcycles. In addition, a significant component of pedestrian and
bicycle traffic was observed, with the latter being the primary means to transporting banana and
other crops. Based on the study results, traffic composition for RN27 along the project road is:

Table 9: Existing Traffic Composition on RN27

Type %
Motorcycles 81%
Cars, pick-ups, minibus 12%
Trucks and Buses 7%
Source: ITEC, 2012

Together, the results for RN5, RN13 and RN27 may be taken to indicate that as the road
surfacing improves, both the traffic volume as well as the composition changes, with
motorcycles contributing a lesser percentage of total traffic in favor of cars, trucks, and buses.

Given the above, and ignoring motorcycle traffic in the pavement design, the 2012 AADT
average for the Nyagatare- Kijojo Road was 71. Thus, an opening year annual average daily
traffic (AADT) of 80 AADT in 2014 can be assumed.3

While circumstances prohibit development of a reliable value for a 20-year traffic projection,
note is made of the fact that in recent years, the growth of Rwanda’s Gross Domestic Product
(GDP) has been to the order of 8%.4 While the rural growth rate can be assumed to be less than
this, and an optimistic customary value for rural regions of developing countries is of 6%. While
this rate is hard to maintain over several years, it is appropriate to note that the rate will be high
in the early years of the project due to generated and diverted traffic. At 6%, the AADT would
grow to approx. 257 AADT in twenty years after construction.5 However, as the area is targeted
for irrigation projects, traffic could grow substantially quicker. Note that a traffic volume of 400
AADT is at the upper limit for a gravel-surfaced road.

This twenty-year time frame is also well beyond the life expectancy for a gravel road, which has
a life of seven years absent major rehabilitation works. However, it can be used for geometric
design elements, since:

 it would not be cost effective to change the geometry of the gravel road over the seven to
20 year window
3
71 x 1.062 = 80
4
World Bank data for recent years. The EDPRS2 Program projects 11.5%.
5
80 x 1.0620 = 257
  given that Rwanda does not have a multitude of differing design parameters vs. traffic
volume, and
 given that the existing width standard is so stringent.

Conversely, the pavement design should consider only the traffic volume up to the seventh year,
which matches the effective life of a gravel-surfaced road. Using this time frame, the non-
motorcycle AADT at seven years from the end of construction could be estimated at 120
AADT.6

Based on all of the above, the pavement design was based on a seven year traffic volume
estimate. With the vehicle composition changing away from motorcycles, but far from reaching
the composition on the paved national road, the traffic composition for the seven year end of
pavement life of the road is estimated at:

Table 10: Estimated Traffic Composition on Project Roads

Type %
Motorcycles 55%
Cars, pick-ups, minibus 30%
Trucks and Buses 15%

Applying these growth rates7 to the 2012 ITEC data, and assuming that the construction is started
in early 2014 and completed by the end of 2014, a seven year life considers traffic to year 2021.
Traffic projections are estimated as follows in Table 11 (this table does not include motorcycles,
and projects traffic volumes for both directions):

Table 11: 7-Year Traffic Projections (AADT): Nyagatare- Kijojo Road

Year Light Heavy Total

vehicles Vehicles
2012 46 25 71
2013 50 26 76
2014 53 27 80
2015 57 29 86
2016 61 31 92
2017 65 33 98
2018 69 35 104
2019 73 37 110
2020 77 39 116
2021 80 40 120

6
80 x 1.067 = 120
7
The survey did not divide light vehicles into passenger cars, passenger utility vehicles and goods utility vehicles.
An aggressive estimate of growth rates assumes that half of the light vehicles are public.
3. TRAFFIC (LOAD) EQUIVALENCE FACTORS (LEF/TEF)

Although it is not too difficult to determine a wheel or axle load for an individual vehicle, it is
more complicated to determine the number and types of wheel/axle loads that a particular
pavement will be subject to over its design life. The approach is to convert damage from wheel
loads of various magnitudes and repetitions ("mixed traffic") to damage from an equivalent
number of "standard" or "equivalent" loads. The commonly used equivalent load is the 18,000 lb
(80 kN) equivalent single axle load, normally designated ESAL.

Traffic Equivalence Factors (TEFs) are used for various sizes of trucks and buses to relate the
fleet to the equivalent loads. However, the nature and composition of Rwanda’s truck traffic is
unknown and hence have to be assumed. Such load assumptions are presented in the following
table:

Table 12: Traffic Equivalence Factors (TEFs) from Various Studies

Vehicle Type TEF

Light Vehicles 0.01
Buses 0.50
Heavy trucks 1.00

As a rule-of-thumb, the damage caused by a particular load is roughly related to the load by a
power of four (for reasonably strong pavement surfaces). For example:

1. For a 18,000 lb (80 kN) single axle, LEF =1.0

2. What is the TEF for a 30,000 lb (133 kN) single axle?
3. Using the fourth power rule-of-thumb:

4. AXLE LOADS

Axle loads were estimated by taking an average of the present (2014) ADT and the future (2021)
ADT by vehicle class, dividing by two to account for the traffic volumes per direction or lane,
and multiplying by the equivalence factor. An assumption is that the ratio of buses to trucks is
50/50.
Computed Equivalent Number of 80kN single axles per day (Nyagatare- Kijojo Road):

Light vehicles = 53+ 80 * 0.01 = 0.7

2

Buses = 27 + 40 * .5 * 0.50 = 8.4

2

Trucks = 27 + 40 * .5 * 1.00 = 16.8

2

Total Equivalent Number of 80kN single axles per day: 25.9

Or, the 7-Year totals:

Computed Total Equivalent Standard Axles Loads:

Light vehicles = 0.7 x 365 x 7 = 1,789

Buses = 8.4 x 365 x 7 = 21,462

Heavy Trucks = 16.8 x 365 x 7 = 42,924

Total for both directions 66,175

Total for one direction = 33,100 or use 0.1 x 106 ESALs

Note that all of the above pertain to the Nyagatare- Kijojo project road, and not the Nyamiyonga-
Kagitumba project road. There is no existing traffic count data available for the Nyamiyonga-
Kagitumba road segment. However, as will be mentioned in the Pavement Design Chapter,
gravel road pavement design is not particularly sensitive to the ESALs that can be found within
the range where a gravel road surface is selected. For instance, even if we were to assume that
the average traffic and composition of the Nyamiyonga- Kagitumba road were equal to the year
2010 traffic at either RN5 (at Ryabega) or at RN13 (at Nyagatare), which is highly unlikely, the
resultant ESALs range between 0.1-0.2 x 106 ESALs, with little variation in the pavement design
thickness.

The Consultants note that the traffic data of March 2010 pertain only to the paved national roads,
while the traffic counts which are more pertinent to the unpaved roads were conducted during
September 2012. While we acknowledge that the traffic will likely include a considerable
increase in volume during harvest periods, these may also be unrepresentative of the average
annual traffic conditions. We are however confined in large part to the limit of available data.
We would however also point out that the pavement structure as developed in the Design Report
is not particularly sensitive to changes in traffic volume over the range of likely traffic volumes
occurring within the rather narrow confines of the volume capacities of gravel roads. As for
tonnage, once again, an estimate as developed in the Design Report was based on percentages of
traffic by vehicle type referring not only to the unpaved project roads but reviewing also the
nearby paved road traffic mix. We believe we have developed the best results possible using the
available data.