POLL EMBARGOED UNTIL 21ST MARCH 2019, 6 AM MST

UltraPoll - Alberta Edition

Voter Intention Numbers
Leaders’ Favourability Ratings
21st March 2019
METHODOLOGY
The analysis in this report is based on results of a
survey conducted on March 19th, 2019 among a
sample of 1160 adults, 18 years of age or older,
living in Alberta. The survey was conducted using
automated telephone interviews (Smart IVR).
Respondents were interviewed on both landlines
and cellular phones.
The sampling frame was derived from random
digit dialing.
The survey was conducted by Mainstreet Research
and was not sponsored by a third party.
The margin of error for the first survey is +/- 2.88%
and is accurate 19 times out of 20.
(full methodology appears at the end of this
report)
ABOUT MAINSTREET
With 20 years of political experience in all three
levels of government, President and CEO Quito
Maggi is a respected commentator on international
public affairs.
Differentiated by its large sample sizes, Mainstreet
Research has provided accurate snapshots of
public opinion, having predicted a majority NDP
government in Alberta, and was the only polling firm
to correctly predict a Liberal majority government
in the 2015 federal election. Mainstreet also
accurately predicted the 2018 Ontario election and
was the first to predict that a CAQ majority win in
the 2018 Quebec election. Mainstreet Research
is a member of the World Association for Public
Opinion Research and meets international and
Canadian publication standards.
CONTACT INFORMATION
In Ottawa:
Quito Maggi, President
quito@mainstreetresearch.ca
In Toronto:
Dr. Joseph Angolano, Vice President
joseph@mainstreetresearch.ca
Find us online at:
www.mainstreetresearch.ca
twitter.com/MainStResearch
facebook.com/mainstreetresearch
NDP GAIN NINE POINTS SINCE JANUARY, BUT UCP LEAD AS ALBERTA ELECTION
GETS UNDER WAY

21 March 2019 (Ottawa, ON) – The gap between the NDP and the UCP is now 14 points - down ten points
from January - but it is Jason Kenney’s party that is in the lead as the Alberta election gets under way.

Those are the findings from Mainstreet Research’s latest UltraPoll, a conglomeration of ten provincial
polls. The poll surveyed 1160 Albertans on March 19, 2019. The poll has a margin of error of +/- 2.88%
and is accurate 19 times out of 20.

“The NDP have posted very significant gains since January as the Kamikaze scandal has pushed some
Albertans away from the UCP,” said Quito Maggi, President and CEO of Mainstreet Research.

Among decided and leaning voters, the UCP with Jason Kenney as leader have 50.7% (-1.6% from
Mainstreet’s January poll), while the NDP led by Rachel Notley have 37.8% (+9.3%). The Alberta Party led
by Stephen Mandel have 4.3% (-3.4%), and the Alberta Liberal Party with David Khan at the helm have
2.8% (+0.9%).

“Rachel Notley begins this election by taking the first necessary steps to beat the UCP,” added Maggi.
“The NDP have taken support away from the Liberals, Alberta Party, and Greens, and have taken the lead
among women, voters between the age of 18 to 34, and in Edmonton.”

“But to win in April the NDP need to eat into UCP support, which has been stable for months,” he added.

The poll also asked about the favourability ratings of five of the party leaders and found that Notley has
a -9.4% net favourability rating while Kenney has a -3.5% rating.

“It is in the favourability ratings where we see that Jason Kenney is the weak spot for the UCP, as this is
the first time that we see Kenney have a negative rating in over a year,” added Maggi. “In January the gap
between Notley and Kenney’s favourability ratings was 19%, and now it stands at just under 6%.”

The poll also found that former Wildrose Alliance leader Brian Jean had the highest net favourability
rating, coming in at +20.9%.

“It is interesting to see that Jean’s favourability ratings are significantly higher than that of Kenney and
Notley as he was the target in the UCP leadership race if the Kamikaze allegations are true,” Maggi
concluded.

-30-

For additional information or to arrange an interview, contact:

Joseph Angolano, 647-894-1552 - joseph@mainstreetresearch.ca
If a provincial election were held today, which party would you
All Voters
vote for?

9.2%

1%
0.9%
3.5%
2%
33.5%
2.6%

All Voters

All Voters
Decided47.4%
and Leaning Voters
9.8%

0.6% 1.3%
2.3% 1.3%
4.3% 26.3%
NDP United
2.5% Conservatives Liberals Freedom Conservative
4.7%
2.8%
Alberta Party Alberta Greens Another Party Undecided
2.2%

4.1% 37.1%

All Voters
Decided and Leaning Voters

50.7%

49.9%

NDP United Conservatives Liberals Freedom Conservative

NDP United Conservatives Liberals Freedom Conservative
Alberta Party Alberta Greens Another Party Undecided
Alberta Party Alberta Greens Another Party
Do you have a favourable or unfavourable opinion of the
following party leaders?
Rachel Notley Jason Kenney

10.2%
17.9%
2.1%

39.1% 2.6% 38%

Rachel Notley Jason Kenney

48.5%

David Khan Stephen Mandel

41.5%

6.6%
Favourable Unfavourable Not Familiar Not Sure Favourable Unfavourable Not Familiar Not Sure
16.2%

20.3%
37%

46.4%

David Khan Stephen Mandel

26.4%

Rachel Notley
26.7%
Derek Fildebrandt Brian Jean 20.4%

13.2%
6.7%
Favourable Unfavourable Not Familiar Not Sure Favourable Unfavourable Not Familiar Not Sure

3.7% 31.3%

31%
36.5%
41.1%

Rachel
32.1% Notley
Derek Fildebrandt Brian Jean

7.7%

51.8%

24.7% 20.2%

Favourable Unfavourable Not Familiar Not Sure

Favourable Unfavourable Not Familiar Not Sure Favourable Unfavourable Not Familiar Not Sure
Breakout Tables
If a provincial election were held today, which party would you vote for?
(all voters)
All Male Female 18-34 35-49 50-64 65+ Calgary Edmonton Rest of Alberta
NDP led by Rachel Notley 33.5% 27.1% 39.8% 38.2% 33.5% 28.3% 31.8% 36.3% 37.7% 25.6%
UCP led by Jason Kenney 47.4% 56.5% 38.3% 33% 52.6% 56.8% 52.7% 44.6% 39.3% 59.2%
Liberals led by David Khan 2.6% 2.8% 2.4% 4.3% 2.1% 0.8% 2.8% 4.3% 1.6% 1.2%
Freedom Conservative led by Derek Fildebrandt 2% 2.3% 1.7% 2.4% 1.6% 2% 2% 1.1% 3% 2.3%
Alberta Party led by Stephen Mandel 3.5% 3.2% 3.7% 4.3% 2.5% 4% 2.5% 3.1% 4.6% 2.8%
Alberta Green Party led by Cheryle Chagnon-Greyeyes 0.9% 1.1% 0.7% 1.1% 1.2% 0.8% - 1.4% - 1%
Another Party 1% 1% 1% 0.8% 1.7% 0.4% 1% 0.9% 1% 1.1%
Undecided 9.2% 6% 12.4% 15.9% 4.7% 6.7% 7.3% 8.3% 12.9% 6.8%
Unweighted Frequency 1160 712 448 258 346 336 220 294 343 523
Weighted Frequency 1160 578 582 370 316 290 185 474 338 348

(leaning voters with true undecided totals)

All Male Female 18-34 35-49 50-64 65+ Calgary Edmonton Rest of Alberta
NDP led by Rachel Notley 35.4% 27.9% 42.9% 42.2% 34.3% 29.4% 33.4% 37.1% 41.7% 27.1%
UCP led by Jason Kenney 49.3% 58% 40.6% 33.9% 54.7% 59.6% 54.7% 46.6% 41% 60.9%
Liberals led by David Khan 2.7% 3% 2.4% 4.3% 2.3% 1.1% 2.8% 4.3% 1.8% 1.4%
Freedom Conservative led by Derek Fildebrandt 2.4% 2.4% 2.3% 3.1% 1.8% 2% 2.4% 1.7% 3% 2.6%
Alberta Party led by Stephen Mandel 4.1% 3.7% 4.6% 5.4% 2.7% 4.3% 3.8% 3.5% 5.8% 3.4%
Alberta Green Party led by Cheryle Chagnon-Greyeyes 1.3% 1.3% 1.2% 1.6% 1.2% 1.2% 0.9% 2% 0.5% 1%
Another Party 1.2% 1.2% 1.3% 1.5% 1.7% 0.4% 1% 0.9% 1.8% 1.1%
Undecided 3.6% 2.5% 4.7% 8% 1.4% 2% 1.2% 3.8% 4.5% 2.5%
Unweighted Frequency 1160 712 448 258 346 336 220 294 343 523
Weighted Frequency 1160 578 582 370 316 290 185 474 338 348

(decided and leaning voters)

All Male Female 18-34 35-49 50-64 65+ Calgary Edmonton Rest of Alberta
NDP led by Rachel Notley 37.1% 28.8% 45.3% 46% 34.9% 30.1% 33.9% 38.9% 43.9% 28%
UCP led by Jason Kenney 50.7% 59.3% 42.2% 36.5% 55.3% 60.7% 55.2% 48% 42.5% 62.3%
Liberals led by David Khan 2.8% 3.1% 2.6% 4.7% 2.3% 1.1% 2.8% 4.6% 1.8% 1.4%
Freedom Conservative led by Derek Fildebrandt 2.5% 2.5% 2.5% 3.4% 1.8% 2.1% 2.4% 1.9% 3.2% 2.7%
Alberta Party led by Stephen Mandel 4.3% 3.8% 4.8% 5.9% 2.7% 4.4% 3.8% 3.6% 6.1% 3.5%
Alberta Green Party led by Cheryle Chagnon-Greyeyes 1.3% 1.4% 1.3% 1.7% 1.2% 1.2% 0.9% 2.1% 0.6% 1%
Another Party 1.3% 1.2% 1.4% 1.7% 1.7% 0.4% 1% 0.9% 1.9% 1.1%
Unweighted Frequency 1127 695 432 242 340 327 218 285 333 509
Weighted Frequency 1127 561 566 359 307 282 179 460 328 338
 Do you have a favourable or unfavourable opinion of Rachel Notley?
Total Male Female 18-34 35-49 50-64 65+ Calgary Edmonton Rest of Alberta
Favourable 39.1% 32.3% 45.9% 43.3% 35.2% 35.4% 43.5% 43% 44.2% 29%
Unfavourable 48.5% 55% 42.1% 40.8% 54.1% 55.6% 43.5% 42.9% 43.8% 60.8%
Not Familiar with Rachel Notley 2.1% 2.2% 2.1% 2.6% 2% 1.6% 2.4% 2.6% 2.1% 1.5%
Not sure 10.2% 10.5% 9.9% 13.3% 8.8% 7.4% 10.6% 11.5% 9.9% 8.6%
Unweighted Frequency 1160 712 448 258 346 336 220 294 343 523
Weighted Frequency 1160 578 582 370 316 290 185 474 338 348

Do you have a favourable or unfavourable opinion of Jason Kenney?

Total Male Female 18-34 35-49 50-64 65+ Calgary Edmonton Rest of Alberta
Favourable 38% 44.2% 31.8% 28.1% 37.3% 47.8% 43.6% 39.8% 29.7% 43.6%
Unfavourable 41.5% 36.7% 46.3% 46.4% 41.9% 37.1% 38.1% 41.5% 49.1% 34.1%
Not Familiar with Jason Kenney 2.6% 3.4% 1.8% 4.9% 1.3% 1% 2.6% 1.9% 3.4% 2.8%
Not sure 17.9% 15.6% 20.1% 20.6% 19.5% 14.1% 15.7% 16.8% 17.8% 19.5%
Unweighted Frequency 1160 712 448 258 346 336 220 294 343 523
Weighted Frequency 1160 578 582 370 316 290 185 474 338 348

Do you have a favourable or unfavourable opinion of David Khan?

Total Male Female 18-34 35-49 50-64 65+ Calgary Edmonton Rest of Alberta
Favourable 6.6% 6.1% 7% 5% 8.6% 6.5% 6.3% 7.2% 6.8% 5.5%
Unfavourable 20.3% 26.6% 14.1% 19.4% 22.8% 21.1% 16.6% 19.5% 18.1% 23.6%
Not Familiar with David Khan 26.7% 26% 27.4% 24.3% 26.4% 29% 28.2% 25.8% 24.7% 29.8%
Not sure 46.4% 41.3% 51.5% 51.2% 42.1% 43.4% 49% 47.5% 50.4% 41.1%
Unweighted Frequency 1160 712 448 258 346 336 220 294 343 523
Weighted Frequency 1160 578 582 370 316 290 185 474 338 348

Do you have a favourable or unfavourable opinion of Stephen Mandel?

Total Male Female 18-34 35-49 50-64 65+ Calgary Edmonton Rest of Alberta
Favourable 16.2% 16.3% 16.1% 14.9% 14.7% 17.5% 19.4% 10.9% 24.8% 15%
Unfavourable 26.4% 31.3% 21.5% 19.7% 27.1% 32.7% 28.3% 19.1% 35.6% 27.3%
Not Familiar with Stephen Mandel 20.4% 19.8% 21% 21% 22.5% 19.9% 16.5% 29.8% 6.6% 21.1%
Not sure 37% 32.6% 41.4% 44.3% 35.7% 29.9% 35.8% 40.2% 33% 36.6%
Unweighted Frequency 1160 712 448 258 346 336 220 294 343 523
Weighted Frequency 1160 578 582 370 316 290 185 474 338 348

Do you have a favourable or unfavourable opinion of Derek Fildebrandt?

Total Male Female 18-34 35-49 50-64 65+ Calgary Edmonton Rest of Alberta
Favourable 6.7% 6.9% 6.5% 9.2% 7.7% 4.5% 3.7% 5.4% 7.8% 7.5%
Unfavourable 32.1% 38.4% 25.8% 20.4% 35.5% 39.6% 37.9% 30.7% 32.7% 33.3%
Not familiar with Derek Fildebrandt 24.7% 23.5% 25.9% 24.4% 24% 25.4% 25.4% 29.1% 18.8% 24.4%
Not Sure 36.5% 31.2% 41.8% 46.1% 32.8% 30.5% 33% 34.7% 40.7% 34.8%
Unweighted Frequency 1160 712 448 258 346 336 220 294 343 523
Weighted Frequency 1160 578 582 370 316 290 185 474 338 348
 Do you have a favourable or unfavourable opinion of Brian Jean?
Total Male Female 18-34 35-49 50-64 65+ Calgary Edmonton Rest of Alberta
Favourable 41.1% 46.3% 35.9% 31.2% 49.7% 40.9% 46.4% 34.5% 42.6% 48.5%
Unfavourable 20.2% 20.4% 20% 19.6% 18% 23.5% 20.2% 21.6% 20.8% 17.8%
Not familiar with Brian Jean 7.7% 8.7% 6.6% 10% 7% 6.4% 6.3% 9.6% 4.5% 8.1%
Not Sure 31% 24.5% 37.4% 39.2% 25.3% 29.3% 2.7% 34.3% 32.1% 25.5%
Unweighted Frequency 1160 712 448 258 346 336 220 294 343 523
Weighted Frequency 1160 578 582 370 316 290 185 474 338 348
Full Questionnaire
If a provincial election were held today, which Do you have a favourable or unfavourable
party would you vote for? (first six responses opinion of David Khan?
randomized) Favourable opinion
Alberta New Democratic Party led by Rachel Unfavourable opinion
Notley Not sure
United Conservative Party led by Jason Kenney Not familiar with David Khan
Alberta Liberal Party led by David Khan
Alberta Party led by Stephen Mandel Do you have a favourable or unfavourable
Freedom Conservative Party led by Derek opinion of Stephen Mandel?
Fildebrandt Favourable opinion
Green Party of Alberta led by Cheryle Chagnon- Unfavourable opinion
Greyeyes Not sure
Another Party Not familiar with Stephen Mandel
Undecided
Do you have a favourable or unfavourable
And which party are you leaning towards? opinion of Derek Fildebrandt?
(first six responses randomized - only asked of Favourable opinion
respondents who were undecided in previous Unfavourable opinion
question) Not sure
Alberta New Democratic Party led by Rachel Not familiar with Derek Fildebrandt
Notley
United Conservative Party led by Jason Kenney Do you have a favourable or unfavourable
Alberta Liberal Party led by David Khan opinion of Brian Jean?
Alberta Party led by Stephen Mandel Favourable opinion
Freedom Conservative Party led by Derek Unfavourable opinion
Fildebrandt Not sure
Green Party of Alberta led by Cheryle Chagnon- Not familiar with Brian Jean
Greyeyes
Another Party What is your gender?
Undecided Male
Female
(the order of the next five questions were
randomized) What is your age group?
Do you have a favourable or unfavourable 18 to 34 years of age
opinion of Rachel Notley? 35 to 49 years of age
Favourable opinion 50 to 64 years of age
Unfavourable opinion 65 years of age or older
Not sure
Not familiar with Rachel Notley

Do you have a favourable or unfavourable

opinion of Jason Kenney?
Favourable opinion
Unfavourable opinion
Not sure
Not familiar with Jason Kenney
Methodology
The analysis in this report is based on results of a survey conducted on March 19th, 2019
among a sample of 1160 adults, 18 years of age or older, living in Alberta. The survey was
conducted using Interactive Voice Recording. Respondents were interviewed on both
landlines and cellular phones. The survey is intended to represent the voting population of
Alberta.

This survey was conducted by Mainstreet Research and has not been sponsored by any third-
party organization.

The sampling frame was derived from random digit dialing and respondents were dialed at
random.

At least two attempts were made to complete an interview at every sampled telephone
number. The calls were staggered over times of day and two days to maximize the chances
of making contact with a potential respondent. Interviewing was also spread as evenly as
possible across the field period.

The questionnaire used in this survey is available in this report and online at www.
mainstreetresearch.ca. Questions are asked as they appear in the release document. If
a question is asked of a subset of the sample a descriptive note is added in parenthesis
preceding the question.

The sample was weighted by population parameters from the Canada 2016 Census for adults
18 years of age or older in Canada. The population parameters used for weighting are age,
gender, and region.

The margin of error for this poll is +/- 2.88% at the 95% confidence level. Margins of error are
higher in each subsample.

The margins of error for each subsample is as following: Males: +/- 3.67%, Females: +/-
4.63%, 18-34 age group: +/- 6.1%, 35-49 age group: +/- 5.27%, 50-64 age group: +/- 5.35%,
65+ age group: +/- 6.61%, Calgary +/- 5.72%, Edmonton, 5.29%, Rest of Alberta: +/- 4.29%.

Totals may not add up 100% due to rounding.

In addition to sampling error, one should bear in mind that the wording of questions and
practical difficulties in conducting surveys can introduce error or bias into the findings of
opinion polls. Moreover, all sample surveys and polls may be subject to other sources of
error, including, but not limited to coverage error, and measurement error.