The German load curve in 2050:

structural changes through energy

e ff i c i e n c y m e a s u r e s a n d t h e i r i m p a c t s o n
the electricity supply side

Tobias Boßmann, Rainer Elsland, Fridolin Lickert, Martin Wietschel

Fraunhofer Institute for Systems and Innovation Research ISI, Karlsruhe, Germany
eceee summer study 2013, 07th of June 2013
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Motivation
Historical load curves

•  What will the electricity load curve look like in the future, assuming uncontrolled
Asssessment
electricity consumption of the
behaviour (i.e.mean load profile of
no demand-side the 3rd
management)?
Wednesday of every month in summer time between
•  How can we model the future transformation of the load curve?
1996 and 2012
•  What are the impacts of transformations in the load curve on the dispatch of power
plants?
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Agenda

1.  Motivation
2.  Methodology
3.  Case study
4.  Conclusion
5.  Critical appraisal and outlook
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Methodology
Model environment
•  Socio-economic drivers
•  Energy carrier prices
•  Technology data
•  Emission factors
•  Energy balances
•  bottom-up simulation model
•  available for EU27+3
•  projection until the year 2050
•  Existing power plants
•  Renewable capacities
•  Energy carrier prices
•  Weather time series

FORECAS PowerACE
T Europe

•  agent-based electricity
•  Annual final energy system model
demand •  hourly calculation
•  Energy saving potentials •  available for EU27+2 +
•  Emissions MENA region
•  Power plant and grid
investment and dispatch
•  Emissions
•  Electricity prices
•  Curtailment
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Methodology
eLOAD: energy LOad Curve ADjustment
tool
•  Socio-economic drivers •  Historical load curves •  Conventional power
•  Energy carrier prices •  Appliance specific load plant capacities
•  Technology data profiles •  Renewable capacities
•  Emission factors •  Temperature time series •  Energy carrier prices
•  Energy balances •  Weather time series

FORECAS Electricity System

eLOAD PowerACE
T demand load curve

•  Annual final energy •  Appliance specific load •  Power plant dispatch

demand curves •  Emissions
•  Energy saving potentials •  Electricity prices
•  Emissions •  Curtailment
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M e1 t h o d o l o g y
Distinction between relevant and less relevant applications according to ratio of electricity
P a r tdemand
i a l dincrease/decrease
e c o m p ocompared
s i t i otontheaoverall
p pelectricity
r o a cdemand
h ( Pin the
DA base) year
Relevant applications Less relevant
2 applications
Decomposition of the system load curve into load curves for relevant applications
INPUT: Annual electricity demand projection distinguished by country, sector, and
application,
Base year

remaining
technology (results load
from FORECAST model)

3 4
Scaling of application specific Database: Scaling of remaining load
load curves according to -  Load profiles acc. to cumulated evolution
evolution between base and -  Historic load curves of less relevant applications
projection year -  Temperature time between base and projection
series year
5
Projection year

Reaggregation of the system load curve

OUTPUT: Electricity load curve for a specific projection year and country
(serves as input for PowerACE model)
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Methodology
Load profiles
Load profiles originate from
•  Internal data base
•  Generation from load measurements in
the framework of field tests
•  Neural Networks
•  Conditional Demand Analysis
•  Publicly available profiles
•  Building simulation models
•  Norms/standards
•  Time organisation model
•  Conclusion by analogy

Source: own calculations based on REMODECE

project
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Case study
Scenario setting
Setting: Germany, 2008-2050
Scenarios:
•  Reference scenario
•  Decarbonisation scenario
Main drivers (based on Energy Roadmap 2050 of European Commission)
•  GDP: +1.1% p.a.
•  Population: -12% between 2008 and 2050

Scaling Partial decomposition

Approach (SCA) approach (PDA)
Reference
X X
Scenario (RS)
Decarbonisation
X
scenario (DS)
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Case study
Scenario setting
Demand side (=> FORECAST model)
•  Reference scenario
•  Business-as-usual
•  Energy carrier prices further increase until 2050
•  Decarbonisation scenario
•  Intensified diffusion of energy saving options
•  Increased use of recycling products
•  Increased refurbishment rate
•  Comprehensive introduction of new technologies
•  Energy carrier prices: further increase until 2030, then decline

Hourly load (=> eLOAD)

•  No demand-side management
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Case study
Results of FORECAST model
Germany

+178%
-20% ∆a,abs [TWh] |∆a,abs| /∑| ∆|a,abs| /dtotal,
-9%
Reference

∆a,abs| 2050

+1% E-Mobility +31 15% 5%

∑ = +2%
compared to 2008
Heat pumps +14 8% 3%
-5%
Storage -8 4% 1%
heater
Decarbonisation

+402% ∆a,abs [TWh] |∆a,abs| /∑| ∆|a,abs| /dtotal,

-20% ∆a,abs| 2050
-23%
E-Mobility +69 22% 12%
∑ = -1% -8%
compared to 2008 Heat pumps +41 14% 8%

-14% Storage -12 4% 2%

heater
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Case study
Results from eLOAD

RS-SCA RS-PDA DS-PDA

Maximum load 90 GW 97 GW 103 GW
Minimum load 39 GW 35 GW 34 GW
Capacity factor 72% 66% 62%
Ramp rate factor 0.58% 0.70% 0.78%
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Case study
Results from eLOAD
Variation of daily load distribution
RS-SCA vs. RS-PDA RS-PDA vs. DS-PDA
(impacts from new approach) (impacts from scenario
settings)
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Case study
Scenario setting
Supply side (=> PowerACE model)
•  No distinction between the two scenarios => ceteris paribus
•  Total installed capacity: 255 GW
•  Whereof 90 GW conventional
•  Whereof 165 GW RES
•  Total RES generation: 400 TWh
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Case study
Results from PowerACE-Europe
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Case study
Results from PowerACE-Europe

RS-SCA
Total electricity demand 564 TWh
Lignite CCS 74 TWh / 5480 h
Hard coal CCS 80 TWh / 4520 h
Gas CCS 19 TWh / 2600 h
Gas without CCS 9 TWh / 510 h
Oil 12 TWh / 510 h
Import -18 TWh
RES 403 TWh / 2440 h
Total input into pump storage 16 TWh
Hrs. with neg. residual load 1670
Share of curtailed RES 3%
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Conclusion

•  Efficiency measures can limit further growth of electricity demand

•  Savings are erased electrification of transport and heat generation sector

•  Applying the PDA, the future load curve will experience a thorough deformation
•  a rise in peak demand as well as peak load hours and an increase in volatility
(compared to today’s shape and the estimation via the scaling approach)
•  if no additional strategies are undertaken (e.g. demand response, grid
extension, storage capacities) use of peak power plants and curtailment of RES
will increase
•  electric vehicles and heat pumps are particularly suitable for load shifting

Outlook
•  Integration of demand-side management
•  Consideration of impacts of efficiency measures on load profile
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Thank you for your attention!