7.

Static Uncertainty Analysis – Part 2

 Edit Workflow
 The automatically generated Uncertainty Workflow
by Petrel may have some property missing because
it is not included in the “Volume Calculation”
 For example :
 The height above contact, which is needed for evaluating
Saturation will not be included in Uncertainty Workflow
because it does not appear in the Volume Calculation.
 Permeability may also be excluded for the same reason. If
water saturation is calculated based on the J-Function, then
permeability must be included.
 Missing process need to be included by Editing the
Workflow.
 Editing Workflow requires skill and understanding
of Workflow Editor
Edit Workflow
 Sensitivity Analysis
 Sensitivity Analysis is the analysis of
uncertain variables toward the objective
variable (e.g., STOIP or EUR)
 Sensitivity Analysis can also be done for
Sensitivity of the Process
 The result of sensitivity analysis can be
viewed as the histogram, known as
Sensitivity Plot, as well as the Tornado Plot
 Tornado Plot is only available for PETREL
2010 or later
Sensitivity Plot
Tornado Plot
 $Seed Variable
 The $Seed Variable is used to generate
multiple realization for the same model.
 In order to be able to reproduce the model,
Seed Number should be provided to the
program.
 Same Seed number can be supplied for both
Facies and Petrophysical Properties Modeling.
 If variables are varied in uncertainty analysis it
is better not to make variability in seed number.
 On the other hand, if none of the variables are
varied, $Seed should be used
 Exercise 8
 Objective :
 To be able to perform basic Uncertainty Analysis
by changing fluid contact
 Task :
 Calculate Volume for the base case
 Generate Uncertainty Workflow
 Vary fluid contact using uncertainty of +/- 10 ft
from the base case
 Determine P10-P50-P90, from histogram and from
worksheet
 Reproduce the P10-P50-P90 models.
 Including Discrete Uncertain
Properties

The data can be accessed using ForLoop Statement

Initializing Variable :
GetCalculatorName : $X = VariableF, $Y = Variable P
Accessing specific Data Row
 Exercise 9
 Objective :
 Be able to include different Saturation-Height
function to capture the uncertainty of Capillary
Pressure Data
 Task :
 Generate the minimum and maximum curves of
Sw-Height function for each rock type
 Generate workflow to include the uncertainty of the
above curves
 Determine P10-P50-P90 (from histogram and from
worksheet)
 Exercise 10
 Objective :
 To understand the Experimental Design
sampling technique
 Task :
 Use the two level ED and three level ED for
Exercise 9 to get the Uncertainty Analysis
 Exercise 11
 Objective :
 To understand Sensitivity Analysis
 Task :
 Perform Sensitivity Analysis (by variable and
by process) for Exercise 9.
 Generate the Sensitivity Plot as well as the
Tornado Plot
 Uncertainty Best Practice
(Petrel Help File)
 Duplicate Model before Running
Uncertainty Analysis Workflow
 Be cautious when running structural
uncertainty on a model that contains
properties.
 It is generally recommended to untick the
Copy option on the command With 3D
grid. Using the Copy option may cause the
uncertainty run to fail or may lead to
undesired results.
 Uncertainty Best Practice
(Petrel Help File)
 For workflows that include a depth conversion
step, always make sure you are using the
correct velocity model and depth grid.
 Use Latin-Hypercube option in the Monte-
Carlo sampler.
 The use of nested loops in the base case
workflow is not recommended. In particular,
the Define simulation case and Volume
calculation commands should not be placed
inside a nested loop.
 Uncertainty Best Practice
(Petrel Help File)
 Always ensure the project is backed up!
 When defining the distributions of
variables, particular attention has to be paid
to the Min and Max arguments. Min has to
be strictly smaller than Max. If the variable
has a negative range, the variable with the
bigger absolute value is the lower limit and
has to be entered as Min.
 Exercise 12
 Step :
 Create a smaller model (for practical purposes of
class exercise) by copying the model but for Zone 3
only.
 Set the Zone Filter to have “Zone 3” only as active zone
 Double Click on the “Fine Scale Model”
 Select “Output” Tab, make sure “Zone Filter is selected”
 Click “Copy Global Grid”
 Re-run Facies Model, make sure to include RT1, 2,
and 3 only (remove RT4 and 5)
 Re-run Porosity and Permeability Model. Follow
class instruction.
 Assume constant multiplier for Perm Model equal
to 1.8 to match well test
 Exercise 12
 Step :
 Highlight the newly created grid and rename the
3D Grid into “Fine Scale Zone 3”
 Create a new Macro File for Calculating Sw using
J-Function method using the following equations :
 Assume same J-Function for RT 1, 2 and 3. Note
that for Zone 3, there is no RT 4 in the 3D model.

0.133 ∗
0.218
25
Swi = 0.08
 Exercise 12
 Calculate Volume. Use PHIE3D and SwJ3D
 Generate Workflow for Uncertainty Analysis with 3 Level ED
(BB) by using the following uncertainty variables :
 Facies Variogram :
 Rmax = 3000 to 15000
 Rmin = 0.8 * Rmax
 Rvert = 20 to 35
 Azim = 15 to 75
 Smoothing for “I” from 0 to 2 (integer)
 Perm. Modeling :
 Use Cor. Coefficient from 0.6 to 8.
 Assume constant multiplier for Perm to match well test from 1.5 to 4.5
 Swi : 0.05 to 0.15
 Contact : -8610 to -8630
 Bo : 1.4 to 1.6