Sei sulla pagina 1di 67

FOOD, BEVERAGES AND TOBACCO INDUSTRY IN

ASIA PACIFIC
January 2018
INTRODUCTION
PRODUCTION OUTLOOK
COMPETITIVE LANDSCAPE
FOREIGN TRADE
COUNTRY SNAPSHOTS
APPENDIX
INTRODUCTION

Scope

 All values in this report are expressed in US dollar terms, using a fixed 2016 Disclaimer

exchange rate. All data are expressed in constant terms; inflationary effects Much of the information in this
briefing is of a statistical nature and,
are discounted. while every attempt has been made
to ensure accuracy and reliability,
 The regional data represented in this report includes all countries that fall Euromonitor International cannot be
within Asia Pacific. The countries in the region researched by Euromonitor held responsible for omissions or
errors.
International are highlighted in light blue and country snapshots are available Figures in tables and analyses are
at the end of the report. calculated from unrounded data and
may not sum. Analyses found in the
briefings may not totally reflect the
companies’ opinions, reader
discretion is advised.

With production of USD3.0


trillion, Asia Pacific remains the
world’s largest food, beverages
and tobacco producer. Asia
Pacific leads in the production
of vegetable oils, grain mill
products and commodities such
as sugar, coffee, tea and spices.
The industry is expected to post
a 4.5% CAGR over 2016-2025,
driven by growing population
and rising urbanisation.
Accelerating demand will also
contribute to food and beverage
import growth.

© Euromonitor International PASSPORT INDUSTRIALS: FOOD, BEVERAGES AND TOBACCO INDUSTRY IN PASSPORT 3
ASIA PACIFIC
INTRODUCTION

Key findings

Asia Pacific will maintain Asia Pacific is the world’s largest food, beverages and tobacco producer and is
leading producer position forecast a 4.5% CAGR over 2016-2025. Asia Pacific will continue to lead in the
globally production of vegetable oils, grain mill products and commodities such as
sugar, coffee, tea and spices.
Population increase drives Asia Pacific’s population is expected to show a 0.8% CAGR over 2016-2025
food demand growth and reach 4.4 billion people driving demand growth for food and beverage
products. India, China, Pakistan and Indonesia will increase the Asian
population the most contributing to growing food consumption.
Urbanisation and income Higher disposable income will also drive food and beverage production
growth change consumer contributing to growing expenditure on food in Asia Pacific. Moreover, the
habits popularity of Western diets will increase demand for dairy products and
premium alcoholic drinks. Imports are expected to grow to meet growing
demand for premium products.
Palm and soy bean oil - Asia Pacific dominates the global market in palm oil and soy bean oil
remain dominant production and is expected to significantly contribute to food production growth
commodity in Asia Pacific and continue providing the majority of global supply.
China - Asia Pacific’s China is expected to maintain the leading position in food, beverages and
driving force tobacco manufacturing globally and increase industry turnover by 5.1% CAGR
over 2016-2025 driving the entire region’s growth.
Food manufacturing is yet Asia Pacific countries still struggle from a lack of clean water supply and poor
to reach full growth hygiene conditions in food manufacturing facilities, thus hindering full potential
potential industry development.

© Euromonitor International PASSPORT INDUSTRIALS: FOOD, BEVERAGES AND TOBACCO INDUSTRY IN PASSPORT 4
ASIA PACIFIC
INTRODUCTION
PRODUCTION OUTLOOK
COMPETITIVE LANDSCAPE
FOREIGN TRADE
COUNTRY SNAPSHOTS
APPENDIX
PRODUCTION OUTLOOK

Vegetable oil and grain mill industries will drive turnover growth

 Asia Pacific is the largest producer of


food, beverages and tobacco globally with
USD3.0 trillion in output in 2016.
 China is the dominant producing country
in both Asia Pacific and the world and will
continue contributing the majority of the
region’s production growth securing the
leading global position.
 Asia Pacific producers are leading in the
production of vegetable oils, meat, grain
mill products, coffee, tea, spices, ready
meals, pet foods and animal feed.
 Palm and soy bean oil production is
expected to significantly contribute to food
production growth and continue providing
the majority of global supply.
 Production of food, beverages and
tobacco in Asia Pacific is expected to
record a CAGR of 4.5% over 2016-2025,
driven by vegetable and animal oils and
fats, and grain mill products output
growth.

© Euromonitor International PASSPORT INDUSTRIALS: FOOD, BEVERAGES AND TOBACCO INDUSTRY IN PASSPORT 6
ASIA PACIFIC
PRODUCTION OUTLOOK

Asia Pacific will continue to lead in food and beverage production

 Production in Asia Pacific continues to record


strong growth and will maintain a similar pace
over the forecast period fortifying the region’s
leading position in food, beverages and
tobacco production globally
 Population growth in Asia Pacific will provide
a strong incentive for production increase
over the forecast period. The number of
people is forecast a CAGR of 0.8%, to reach
4.4 billion, by 2025. China and India will
contribute the majority of the population
increase.
 The popularity of Western diets will increase
dairy, meat and wheat consumption in
countries such as China and India. Imported
goods will play a significant role in supplying
growing demand.
 CAGRs of 4.3% and 1.8% for disposable
income and urban population, respectively,
over 2016-2025 will support food industry
growth as households will rely less on home-
grown produce.
Source: Euromonitor International from national statistics

© Euromonitor International PASSPORT INDUSTRIALS: FOOD, BEVERAGES AND TOBACCO INDUSTRY IN PASSPORT 7
ASIA PACIFIC
PRODUCTION OUTLOOK

China drives global food, beverage and tobacco industry growth

 China is the leading producer of food,


beverages and tobacco products in the
world contributing 27.5% of global
production turnover and 71.2% of Asia
Pacific turnover.
 Over the period 2016-2025, China’s food,
beverages and tobacco industry is
expected to drive regional growth
recording a 5.1% CAGR.
 By 2025, 1.4 billion people will be living in
China driving food, beverages and
tobacco industry demand growth.
 By 2025, 64% of China’s population will
live in urban areas compared to 56% in
2016, thus consuming more ready- made
food and beverages and relying less on
home-grown produce.
 Grain mill production in China is expected
to drive food production as a growing
population and increasing income will
support demand growth for staple food
items.
Source: Euromonitor International from national statistics

© Euromonitor International PASSPORT INDUSTRIALS: FOOD, BEVERAGES AND TOBACCO INDUSTRY IN PASSPORT 8
ASIA PACIFIC
PRODUCTION OUTLOOK

Increasing alcohol consumption will boost beverages growth

 China’s beverage production is focused on


soft drinks and spirits with significantly
lower production share of beer and wine
compared to Western countries.
 Soft drinks will be driven by non-
carbonated fruit and vegetable beverage
production growth including protein drinks
which are seen as more nutritious.
 Volume consumption of spirits and
alcoholic pre-mixes is expected to post
CAGRs of 2.6% and 6.8%, respectively,
over 2016-2021 driving strong alcohol
production growth. Growing demand for
premium alcoholic drinks such as whiskies,
rum and brandy will add to industry growth.
 The Chinese are changing their alcohol
drinking habits as consumers drink more
for leisure and not just during formal
occasions and celebrations. Drinking
alcohol is increasingly seen as social
status indicator, especially among the
younger generation.
Source: Euromonitor International from national statistics

© Euromonitor International PASSPORT INDUSTRIALS: FOOD, BEVERAGES AND TOBACCO INDUSTRY IN PASSPORT 9
ASIA PACIFIC
PRODUCTION OUTLOOK

Asia Pacific will dominate palm oil, coffee, tea and spices

 Asia Pacific is responsible for providing


the majority of high-value, specialty
commodities such as palm oil, coffee, tea
and spices, while fresh food is
underdeveloped compared to Western
counterparts.
 Indonesia, Malaysia and Bangladesh will
continue to dominate palm oil, while soy
bean oil production will strongly contribute
to vegetable oil growth.
 India and the Philippines are expected to
significantly expand their meat and fish
production supported by growing
economies and improved infrastructure
ensuring better sanitation and logistics.
 Grain mill products is forecast to increase
to ensure staple food sources for the
growing populations, yet unpredictability of
the weather may affect growth.
 Coffee, tea, spices and ready meals is
forecast a 3.7% CAGR over 2016-2025
with Indonesia growing fastest.
Source: Euromonitor International from national statistics

© Euromonitor International PASSPORT INDUSTRIALS: FOOD, BEVERAGES AND TOBACCO INDUSTRY IN PASSPORT 10
ASIA PACIFIC
PRODUCTION OUTLOOK

Increasing alcohol intake will drive region’s beverages growth

 Asia Pacific region contributes 41% of global


beverage production turnover, with soft drinks
making up the bulk of the value. Beverage
production in the region is expected to post a
3.7% CAGR over 2016-2025.
 Although carbonated drinks will provide the
majority of soft drinks production in Asia
Pacific, drinks containing vitamins, minerals,
amino acids, or fruit will grow the fastest due
to health awareness.
 Per capita alcohol consumption in Asia
Pacific is one of the lowest in the world but
strong alcohol use in volume terms is
expected to see a 2.1% CAGR over 2016-
2021 driven by the popularity of spirits such
as whiskies.
 Alcohol intake is increasing supported by
growing popularity of spirits such as whiskies.
Alcohol regulations in Asia Pacific are being
introduced in the majority of countries and
legal constraints are expected to limit
alcoholic drinks expansion.
Source: Euromonitor International from national statistics

© Euromonitor International PASSPORT INDUSTRIALS: FOOD, BEVERAGES AND TOBACCO INDUSTRY IN PASSPORT 11
ASIA PACIFIC
PRODUCTION OUTLOOK

China will play a crucial role in food and beverages industry growth

Source: Euromonitor International from national statistics

© Euromonitor International PASSPORT INDUSTRIALS: FOOD, BEVERAGES AND TOBACCO INDUSTRY IN PASSPORT 12
ASIA PACIFIC
PRODUCTION OUTLOOK

Food industry structure is highly diverse and specialised in Asia Pacific

Source: Euromonitor International from national statistics

© Euromonitor International PASSPORT INDUSTRIALS: FOOD, BEVERAGES AND TOBACCO INDUSTRY IN PASSPORT 13
ASIA PACIFIC
PRODUCTION OUTLOOK

Soft drinks will remain the leading beverage segment in Asia Pacific

Source: Euromonitor International from national statistics

© Euromonitor International PASSPORT INDUSTRIALS: FOOD, BEVERAGES AND TOBACCO INDUSTRY IN PASSPORT 14
ASIA PACIFIC
INTRODUCTION
PRODUCTION OUTLOOK
COMPETITIVE LANDSCAPE
FOREIGN TRADE
COUNTRY SNAPSHOTS
APPENDIX
COMPETITIVE LANDSCAPE

Small enterprises dominate food and beverages industry

 Overall company count in food and


beverages in Asia Pacific posted a
2.3% CAGR over 2012-2016 with
Chinese and Indonesian company
count expanding the most.
 Almost all (98.8%) of Asia Pacific’s
food and beverages industry
companies are small and have fewer
than 20 employees. Small
businesses increased 2.3% in
number and 4.1% in turnover CAGR
over 2012-2016.
 Commodity-based industries such
as fish, grain mill, coffee, tea, spices
and oil tend to be less concentrated
due to vertical integration with
agriculture and fishing companies.
 Beverages is highly concentrated
with large holdings dominating
alcoholic and soft drinks as
consumers prefer trusted and well-
known producers.
Source: Euromonitor International

© Euromonitor International PASSPORT INDUSTRIALS: FOOD, BEVERAGES AND TOBACCO INDUSTRY IN PASSPORT 16
ASIA PACIFIC
COMPETITIVE LANDSCAPE

Over 90% of industry turnover generated by medium to large companies

Source: Euromonitor International from national statistics Source: Euromonitor International from national statistics

© Euromonitor International PASSPORT INDUSTRIALS: FOOD, BEVERAGES AND TOBACCO INDUSTRY IN PASSPORT 17
ASIA PACIFIC
INTRODUCTION
PRODUCTION OUTLOOK
COMPETITIVE LANDSCAPE
FOREIGN TRADE
COUNTRY SNAPSHOTS
APPENDIX
FOREIGN TRADE

Asia Pacific exports contract as domestic consumption exceeds supply

 Asia Pacific is the second largest food,


beverages and tobacco exporter
globally. The region’s total exports have
been declining as Asia Pacific is faced
with increasing domestic demand and
slower supply expansion potential.
 Coffee, tea, spices and ready meals
exports provide stability in the region‘s
export development recording a 4.8%
CAGR over 2012-2016 and are
expected to maintain steady growth.
 Vegetable oil and sugar exports
contracted over 2012-2016 due to poor
harvests and high domestic demand.
Indonesia, Thailand and Malaysia were
affected the most with oil and sugar
being key trade commodities.
 Although China is the largest exporter
in the region, only 2.5% of total
production is sold abroad with few
prospects of trade growth. Fish and fish
products provide the bulk of exports.
Source: Euromonitor International from national statistics

© Euromonitor International PASSPORT INDUSTRIALS: FOOD, BEVERAGES AND TOBACCO INDUSTRY IN PASSPORT 19
ASIA PACIFIC
FOREIGN TRADE

Western lifestyle and higher income increase beverage and dairy imports

 Asia Pacific is the second largest food,


beverages and tobacco importer
globally and is a net importer. The
majority of import supply comes from
Asia Pacific countries providing
regional specialities and household
staples.
 Although import value posted a
negative 0.4% CAGR over 2012-2016,
increasing populations in Asia Pacific
countries, especially in China and
India, will drive growing imports of food
in order to meet ever-growing demand.
 Changing lifestyles and increasing
incomes are driving grow of imports of
foreign beer, wines and spirits. Alcohol
consumption is on the rise and foreign
drinks are seen as a luxury.
 Dairy product imports are expected to
grow as European diets gain popularity
in countries such as China, India and
Japan.
Source: Euromonitor International from national statistics

© Euromonitor International PASSPORT INDUSTRIALS: FOOD, BEVERAGES AND TOBACCO INDUSTRY IN PASSPORT 20
ASIA PACIFIC
INTRODUCTION
PRODUCTION OUTLOOK
COMPETITIVE LANDSCAPE
FOREIGN TRADE
COUNTRY SNAPSHOTS
APPENDIX
COUNTRY SNAPSHOTS

China: production context

Source: Euromonitor International from national statistics

© Euromonitor International PASSPORT INDUSTRIALS: FOOD, BEVERAGES AND TOBACCO INDUSTRY IN PASSPORT 22
ASIA PACIFIC
COUNTRY SNAPSHOTS

China: foreign trade landscape

Source: Euromonitor International from national statistics Source: Euromonitor International from national statistics

© Euromonitor International PASSPORT INDUSTRIALS: FOOD, BEVERAGES AND TOBACCO INDUSTRY IN PASSPORT 23
ASIA PACIFIC
COUNTRY SNAPSHOTS

India: production context

Source: Euromonitor International from national statistics

© Euromonitor International PASSPORT INDUSTRIALS: FOOD, BEVERAGES AND TOBACCO INDUSTRY IN PASSPORT 24
ASIA PACIFIC
COUNTRY SNAPSHOTS

India: foreign trade landscape

Source: Euromonitor International from national statistics Source: Euromonitor International from national statistics

© Euromonitor International PASSPORT INDUSTRIALS: FOOD, BEVERAGES AND TOBACCO INDUSTRY IN PASSPORT 25
ASIA PACIFIC
COUNTRY SNAPSHOTS

Indonesia: production context

Source: Euromonitor International from national statistics

© Euromonitor International PASSPORT INDUSTRIALS: FOOD, BEVERAGES AND TOBACCO INDUSTRY IN PASSPORT 26
ASIA PACIFIC
COUNTRY SNAPSHOTS

Indonesia: foreign trade landscape

Source: Euromonitor International from national statistics Source: Euromonitor International from national statistics

© Euromonitor International PASSPORT INDUSTRIALS: FOOD, BEVERAGES AND TOBACCO INDUSTRY IN PASSPORT 27
ASIA PACIFIC
COUNTRY SNAPSHOTS

Japan: production context

Source: Euromonitor International from national statistics

© Euromonitor International PASSPORT INDUSTRIALS: FOOD, BEVERAGES AND TOBACCO INDUSTRY IN PASSPORT 28
ASIA PACIFIC
COUNTRY SNAPSHOTS

Japan: foreign trade landscape

Source: Euromonitor International from national statistics Source: Euromonitor International from national statistics

© Euromonitor International PASSPORT INDUSTRIALS: FOOD, BEVERAGES AND TOBACCO INDUSTRY IN PASSPORT 29
ASIA PACIFIC
COUNTRY SNAPSHOTS

Philippines: production context

Source: Euromonitor International from national statistics

© Euromonitor International PASSPORT INDUSTRIALS: FOOD, BEVERAGES AND TOBACCO INDUSTRY IN PASSPORT 30
ASIA PACIFIC
COUNTRY SNAPSHOTS

Philippines: foreign trade landscape

Source: Euromonitor International from national statistics Source: Euromonitor International from national statistics

© Euromonitor International PASSPORT INDUSTRIALS: FOOD, BEVERAGES AND TOBACCO INDUSTRY IN PASSPORT 31
ASIA PACIFIC
COUNTRY SNAPSHOTS

Bangladesh: production context

Source: Euromonitor International from national statistics

© Euromonitor International PASSPORT INDUSTRIALS: FOOD, BEVERAGES AND TOBACCO INDUSTRY IN PASSPORT 32
ASIA PACIFIC
COUNTRY SNAPSHOTS

Bangladesh: foreign trade landscape

Source: Euromonitor International from national statistics Source: Euromonitor International from national statistics

© Euromonitor International PASSPORT INDUSTRIALS: FOOD, BEVERAGES AND TOBACCO INDUSTRY IN PASSPORT 33
ASIA PACIFIC
COUNTRY SNAPSHOTS

South Korea: production context

Source: Euromonitor International from national statistics

© Euromonitor International PASSPORT INDUSTRIALS: FOOD, BEVERAGES AND TOBACCO INDUSTRY IN PASSPORT 34
ASIA PACIFIC
COUNTRY SNAPSHOTS

South Korea: foreign trade landscape

Source: Euromonitor International from national statistics Source: Euromonitor International from national statistics

© Euromonitor International PASSPORT INDUSTRIALS: FOOD, BEVERAGES AND TOBACCO INDUSTRY IN PASSPORT 35
ASIA PACIFIC
COUNTRY SNAPSHOTS

Thailand: production context

Source: Euromonitor International from national statistics

© Euromonitor International PASSPORT INDUSTRIALS: FOOD, BEVERAGES AND TOBACCO INDUSTRY IN PASSPORT 36
ASIA PACIFIC
COUNTRY SNAPSHOTS

Thailand: foreign trade landscape

Source: Euromonitor International from national statistics Source: Euromonitor International from national statistics

© Euromonitor International PASSPORT INDUSTRIALS: FOOD, BEVERAGES AND TOBACCO INDUSTRY IN PASSPORT 37
ASIA PACIFIC
COUNTRY SNAPSHOTS

Pakistan: production context

Source: Euromonitor International from national statistics

© Euromonitor International PASSPORT INDUSTRIALS: FOOD, BEVERAGES AND TOBACCO INDUSTRY IN PASSPORT 38
ASIA PACIFIC
COUNTRY SNAPSHOTS

Pakistan: foreign trade landscape

Source: Euromonitor International from national statistics Source: Euromonitor International from national statistics

© Euromonitor International PASSPORT INDUSTRIALS: FOOD, BEVERAGES AND TOBACCO INDUSTRY IN PASSPORT 39
ASIA PACIFIC
COUNTRY SNAPSHOTS

Vietnam: production context

Source: Euromonitor International from national statistics

© Euromonitor International PASSPORT INDUSTRIALS: FOOD, BEVERAGES AND TOBACCO INDUSTRY IN PASSPORT 40
ASIA PACIFIC
COUNTRY SNAPSHOTS

Vietnam: foreign trade landscape

Source: Euromonitor International from national statistics Source: Euromonitor International from national statistics

© Euromonitor International PASSPORT INDUSTRIALS: FOOD, BEVERAGES AND TOBACCO INDUSTRY IN PASSPORT 41
ASIA PACIFIC
COUNTRY SNAPSHOTS

Taiwan: production context

Source: Euromonitor International from national statistics

© Euromonitor International PASSPORT INDUSTRIALS: FOOD, BEVERAGES AND TOBACCO INDUSTRY IN PASSPORT 42
ASIA PACIFIC
COUNTRY SNAPSHOTS

Taiwan: foreign trade landscape

Source: Euromonitor International from national statistics Source: Euromonitor International from national statistics

© Euromonitor International PASSPORT INDUSTRIALS: FOOD, BEVERAGES AND TOBACCO INDUSTRY IN PASSPORT 43
ASIA PACIFIC
COUNTRY SNAPSHOTS

Singapore: production context

Source: Euromonitor International from national statistics

© Euromonitor International PASSPORT INDUSTRIALS: FOOD, BEVERAGES AND TOBACCO INDUSTRY IN PASSPORT 44
ASIA PACIFIC
COUNTRY SNAPSHOTS

Singapore: foreign trade landscape

Source: Euromonitor International from national statistics Source: Euromonitor International from national statistics

© Euromonitor International PASSPORT INDUSTRIALS: FOOD, BEVERAGES AND TOBACCO INDUSTRY IN PASSPORT 45
ASIA PACIFIC
COUNTRY SNAPSHOTS

Uzbekistan: production context

Source: Euromonitor International from national statistics

© Euromonitor International PASSPORT INDUSTRIALS: FOOD, BEVERAGES AND TOBACCO INDUSTRY IN PASSPORT 46
ASIA PACIFIC
COUNTRY SNAPSHOTS

Uzbekistan: foreign trade landscape

Source: Euromonitor International from national statistics Source: Euromonitor International from national statistics

© Euromonitor International PASSPORT INDUSTRIALS: FOOD, BEVERAGES AND TOBACCO INDUSTRY IN PASSPORT 47
ASIA PACIFIC
COUNTRY SNAPSHOTS

Hong Kong, China: production context

Source: Euromonitor International from national statistics

© Euromonitor International PASSPORT INDUSTRIALS: FOOD, BEVERAGES AND TOBACCO INDUSTRY IN PASSPORT 48
ASIA PACIFIC
COUNTRY SNAPSHOTS

Hong Kong, China: foreign trade landscape

Source: Euromonitor International from national statistics Source: Euromonitor International from national statistics

© Euromonitor International PASSPORT INDUSTRIALS: FOOD, BEVERAGES AND TOBACCO INDUSTRY IN PASSPORT 49
ASIA PACIFIC
COUNTRY SNAPSHOTS

Kazakhstan: production context

Source: Euromonitor International from national statistics

© Euromonitor International PASSPORT INDUSTRIALS: FOOD, BEVERAGES AND TOBACCO INDUSTRY IN PASSPORT 50
ASIA PACIFIC
COUNTRY SNAPSHOTS

Kazakhstan: foreign trade landscape

Source: Euromonitor International from national statistics Source: Euromonitor International from national statistics

© Euromonitor International PASSPORT INDUSTRIALS: FOOD, BEVERAGES AND TOBACCO INDUSTRY IN PASSPORT 51
ASIA PACIFIC
COUNTRY SNAPSHOTS

Azerbaijan: production context

Source: Euromonitor International from national statistics

© Euromonitor International PASSPORT INDUSTRIALS: FOOD, BEVERAGES AND TOBACCO INDUSTRY IN PASSPORT 52
ASIA PACIFIC
COUNTRY SNAPSHOTS

Azerbaijan: foreign trade landscape

Source: Euromonitor International from national statistics Source: Euromonitor International from national statistics

© Euromonitor International PASSPORT INDUSTRIALS: FOOD, BEVERAGES AND TOBACCO INDUSTRY IN PASSPORT 53
ASIA PACIFIC
INTRODUCTION
PRODUCTION OUTLOOK
COMPETITIVE LANDSCAPE
FOREIGN TRADE
COUNTRY SNAPSHOTS
APPENDIX
APPENDIX: COMPETITOR ANALYTICS

Competitor Analytics tool

 Competitor Analytics is a new tool from Euromonitor International that focuses on fmcg companies and
competitors. It visualises the retail sales footprint and performance of more than 25,000 companies by
geography and product category.
 Competitor Analytics also maps the competitive landscape for each of these companies, allowing users to
see with whom each company competes and in which specific markets. To do this, the tool calculates a
numeric “distance” between competitors, allowing the user to track how the competitive landscape is
evolving and which companies are becoming strategically more or less similar.
 For a detailed explanation of the graphics in each of Competitor Analytics’ four tabs – Overview,
Competitors, Treemap and Overlap Matrices – please refer to the following slides.

© Euromonitor International PASSPORT INDUSTRIALS: FOOD, BEVERAGES AND TOBACCO INDUSTRY IN PASSPORT 55
ASIA PACIFIC
APPENDIX: COMPETITOR ANALYTICS

Overview

 The Overview tab (shown in the graphic below) provides a global snapshot of a company’s sales footprint
and performance, highlighting where it is winning and losing by country and product category.
 It shows company (GBO) retail value sales and absolute growth by countries and categories in current
terms and US dollars at a fixed exchange rate for the years spanning 2008 to 2014.
 The grey bars represent value sales in the selected “Start Year”, while the green bars show the subsequent
absolute value sales increase between the user-selected start year and 2014. Red bars denote a retail
value decline over the same time period.

© Euromonitor International PASSPORT INDUSTRIALS: FOOD, BEVERAGES AND TOBACCO INDUSTRY IN PASSPORT 56
ASIA PACIFIC
APPENDIX: COMPETITOR ANALYTICS

Competitors

 The Competitors tab (see graphic to the


right) plots the “competitive distance”
between the selected “focal” company (in
this case Unilever) and its competitors.
 The vertical axis measures the size of
“market overlap” between two companies,
and is the metric for quantitatively
measuring competitive distance. The higher
a company is on the vertical axis, the bigger
a competitor it is for the focal company.
 Meanwhile, the horizontal axis captures
each company’s total retail value sales over
the selected time period, irrespective of
market overlap.
 Flat lines (eg Nestlé in the chart to the right)
indicate that a competitor’s total sales are
growing, but mainly in markets where the
focal company is not present.
 Lines moving steeply upwards (eg Procter
& Gamble) show that competitive similarity
is increasing strongly over time relative to
overall retail sales growth.

© Euromonitor International PASSPORT INDUSTRIALS: FOOD, BEVERAGES AND TOBACCO INDUSTRY IN PASSPORT 57
ASIA PACIFIC
APPENDIX: COMPETITOR ANALYTICS

Market Overlap

 Market Overlap is a measure of


competitive distance between two
companies in retail value terms.
 It is calculated as the sum of the
smaller of the two company’s
retail value sales in each of their
common country/category (aka
market) combinations. The sum of
these observations indicates a
total Market Overlap.
 In 2014, Procter & Gamble and
Unilever were present in 711
common markets (see right)
across the global fmcg universe.
 In US deodorants, Procter &
Gamble was the smaller of the
two, and thus defined the Overlap.
 In US hair care, Unilever was
smaller and thus defined Overlap.
 Replicating this exercise across
all 711 markets in which both
companies were present yields a
total 2014 Overlap of US$23,420.

© Euromonitor International PASSPORT INDUSTRIALS: FOOD, BEVERAGES AND TOBACCO INDUSTRY IN PASSPORT 58
ASIA PACIFIC
APPENDIX: COMPETITOR ANALYTICS

Treemap

 Treemap (as shown in the graphics below ) shows either overlap with a competitor (the left graphic) or
individual company sales (the graphic on the right) by product category and/or country.
 The size of each box indicates the proportional size in US dollars of a country, category or market relative
to the total overlap or sales for the geographies and industries selected.
 The colour gradient reflects sales or overlap growth/decline over the selected time period. The darker the
green, the higher the growth, and the darker the shade of pink/red, the stronger the rate of decline.

© Euromonitor International PASSPORT INDUSTRIALS: FOOD, BEVERAGES AND TOBACCO INDUSTRY IN PASSPORT 59
ASIA PACIFIC
APPENDIX: COMPETITOR ANALYTICS

Overlap Matrices

 Overlap Matrices (as shown in the graphic below) compare two selected competitors (Unilever Group vs
Procter & Gamble Co) in terms of their respective presence across countries and product categories.
 The darker the colour shading, the higher the company’s retail value share in that market. The graphic
below shows that Procter & Gamble has a strong share in hair care in China, whereas Unilever is weaker.
 Overlap Matrices also highlight respective market gaps and potential white space opportunities. Dark grey
boxes indicate that one of the two companies shown is present in that market, but the other company is not.
A light grey box means that neither of the two selected companies is present.

© Euromonitor International PASSPORT INDUSTRIALS: FOOD, BEVERAGES AND TOBACCO INDUSTRY IN PASSPORT 60
ASIA PACIFIC
APPENDIX: INDUSTRY FORECAST MODEL

About Euromonitor International’s Industry Forecast Model

 The Industry Forecast Model is a new tool from Euromonitor International that integrates intuitive,
judgment-based forecasting with the quantitative techniques of an econometric Industry Demand Model.
 The Industry Demand Model assesses the relationship between several historic quantifiable independent
variables (demand drivers) and historic retail volume sales for different markets that Euromonitor tracks.
 In identifying these relationships, the model estimates elasticities for each statistically significant demand
driver, including income growth, changing retail prices, demographic trends and retail channel trends.
 Multiplying these elasticities by corresponding year-on-year growth forecasts for each demand driver allows
the Forecast Model to build annualised retail volume and value forecasts for a market in a given year.
 While estimated demand driver elasticities are constant, forecast demand driver growth can change over
time. For example, forecast GDP growth for a given year is regularly upgraded or downgraded in
Euromonitor International’s Macro Model to reflect changing economic and sociopolitical conditions.
 In turn, changing only forecast growth for GDP in this example allows the Packaged Food Forecast Model
to create multiple retail forecasts that capture the impact of these changing macroeconomic conditions.

Impact of Russia GDP Shock on Chocolate Confectionery Retail Volume Forecast in Russia
2015 real GDP % Chocolate income Income effect on 2015 chocolate %
growth forecast elasticity chocolate growth volume growth
Baseline Forecast
+1.43 0.37 +0.53pp +1.41
(June 2014)
Updated Forecast
-3.82 0.37 -1.41pp -0.55
(December 2014)

© Euromonitor International PASSPORT INDUSTRIALS: FOOD, BEVERAGES AND TOBACCO INDUSTRY IN PASSPORT 61
ASIA PACIFIC
APPENDIX: INDUSTRY FORECAST MODEL

Soft drivers and the Industry Forecast Model

 The power of Euromonitor International’s forecasting methodology is that it blends statistical modelling with
local market observations reflecting local industry consensus. As such, retail market forecasts also rely on
the insights and expertise of Euromonitor’s global analyst network. Euromonitor analysts work closely with
the Industry Demand Model to ensure that it remains consistent with their empirical observations,
guaranteeing that quantitative and intuitive expectations fully complement each other.
 Euromonitor analysts also capture all the demand drivers beyond the scope of the Industry Demand Model.
These “soft drivers” remain critical to future retail sales, but are either fundamentally unquantifiable or have
no globally comparable data with which to measure them.
 Soft drivers are captured and measured exclusively by empirical research from Euromonitor analysts, and
their overall positive or negative impact is estimated on top of the results of the Industry Demand Model.

Demand Driver Soft Demand


Forecast Demand
Elasticities: Drivers:
Driver Growth:
From Industry From Country and
From Passport
Demand Model Industry Research

Industry Forecast Model

© Euromonitor International PASSPORT INDUSTRIALS: FOOD, BEVERAGES AND TOBACCO INDUSTRY IN PASSPORT 62
ASIA PACIFIC
APPENDIX: INDUSTRY FORECAST MODEL

Growth decomposition explained

 To help understand and illustrate the impact of each demand driver to a market’s retail growth performance
and prospects, Euromonitor International employs a graphical tool called “growth decomposition”.
 The fundamental idea behind growth decomposition is that a product category’s retail sales performance
and future prospects can be explained through changes in underlying demand factors.
 As explained above, the impact of demand driver change to retail market sales can be calculated by
multiplying a demand driver’s observed elasticity by that demand driver rate of change over a period of
time. Multiplying demand driver elasticity by forecast demand driver growth yields the percentage points of
overall retail growth that that specific demand driver is contributing to the market forecast under review.
 In addition, Euromonitor analysts estimate the impact of “soft drivers” to overall retail growth via their
empirical research. The relative impact and importance of “soft drivers” can be shown alongside that of the
measurable demand drivers identified by the Industry Demand Model.
 In the growth decomposition visual below, the percentage points of growth that each demand driver is
contributing to overall market growth are illustrated in the coloured segments of the stacked bar charts.

© Euromonitor International PASSPORT INDUSTRIALS: FOOD, BEVERAGES AND TOBACCO INDUSTRY IN PASSPORT 63
ASIA PACIFIC
APPENDIX: INDUSTRY FORECAST MODEL

Significance and applications for growth decomposition

 By attributing a fraction of overall retail growth to each contributing demand driver, overall category growth
can be “decomposed”. In doing so, an extensive picture of underlying market fundamentals and processes
on a category-by-category and country-by-country basis can be provided.
 Ultimately, growth decomposition allows Industry Forecast Model users to:
 Identify different demand drivers that affect historic sales, and will likely impact future market prospects;
 Evaluate the relative importance of different demand factors over time and then identify which factors
generate the highest deviations in historic - and ultimately future - consumption;
 Illuminate the underlying market dynamics for each product category;
 Measure and predict the effects of demand driver shocks, either expected or hypothetical;
 Facilitate scenario analysis by generating understanding of which demand factors can be influenced by a
manufacturer or retailer and which are beyond their control.

© Euromonitor International PASSPORT INDUSTRIALS: FOOD, BEVERAGES AND TOBACCO INDUSTRY IN PASSPORT 64
ASIA PACIFIC
APPENDIX: INDUSTRY FORECAST MODEL

Key applications for Industry Forecast Models

• Quarterly Forecast Restatements


• Regularly updated retail market forecasts to reflect latest macro expectations (ie,
quarter-on-quarter real GDP growth revisions) for all markets.
1
• “What If?” Scenario Analysis
• See and compare how a hypothetical event (ie Eurozone recession, China Hard
Landing, Grexit) stands to impact different market forecasts.
2
• Growth Decomposition and Demand Driver Elasticities
• Understand, compare and respond to the forces driving expected market growth
across different product categories and countries.
3
• Assess Market Potential
• See the ceiling on retail volume or value sales and growth, regardless of a specific
forecast scenario. How much more can that market really grow?
4

© Euromonitor International PASSPORT INDUSTRIALS: FOOD, BEVERAGES AND TOBACCO INDUSTRY IN PASSPORT 65
ASIA PACIFIC
FOR FURTHER INSIGHT PLEASE CONTACT
Rasa Vaičiūnienė
Analyst
rasa.vaiciuniene@euromonitor.com
+370 5 243 1577 EXT 4644

RELATED ANALYSIS
Food, Beverages and Tobacco in Western Europe
Experience more...
This research from Euromonitor International is part of a global Learn More
strategic intelligence system that offers a complete picture of the To find out more about
commercial environment. Also available from Euromonitor Euromonitor International's
International: complete range of business
intelligence on industries,
Global Briefings countries and consumers please
Timely, relevant insight published every month on the state of the visit www.euromonitor.com or
market, emerging trends and pressing industry issues. contact your local Euromonitor
International office:
Interactive Statistical Database
Complete market analysis at a level of detail beyond any other source. Bangalore +91 (80) 67740500
Market sizes, market shares, distribution channels and forecasts. Cape Town +27 21 524 3000
Strategy Briefings Chicago +1 312 922 1115
Executive debate on the global trends changing the consumer markets Dubai +971 4 372 4363
of the future. London +44 0 20 7251 8024
Global Company Profiles Santiago +56 22 915 7200
The competitive positioning and strategic direction of leading
companies including uniquely sector-specific sales and share data. Shanghai +86 21 6032 1088

Country Market Insight Reports Singapore +65 6429 0590


The key drivers influencing the industry in each country; Sydney +61 0 2 9581 9200
comprehensive coverage of supply-side and demand trends and how Tokyo +81 3 3436 2100
they shape future outlook. Vilnius +370 5 243 1577

© Euromonitor International PASSPORT INDUSTRIALS: FOOD, BEVERAGES AND TOBACCO INDUSTRY IN PASSPORT 67
ASIA PACIFIC

Potrebbero piacerti anche