Documenti di Didattica
Documenti di Professioni
Documenti di Cultura
ASIA PACIFIC
January 2018
INTRODUCTION
PRODUCTION OUTLOOK
COMPETITIVE LANDSCAPE
FOREIGN TRADE
COUNTRY SNAPSHOTS
APPENDIX
INTRODUCTION
Scope
All values in this report are expressed in US dollar terms, using a fixed 2016 Disclaimer
exchange rate. All data are expressed in constant terms; inflationary effects Much of the information in this
briefing is of a statistical nature and,
are discounted. while every attempt has been made
to ensure accuracy and reliability,
The regional data represented in this report includes all countries that fall Euromonitor International cannot be
within Asia Pacific. The countries in the region researched by Euromonitor held responsible for omissions or
errors.
International are highlighted in light blue and country snapshots are available Figures in tables and analyses are
at the end of the report. calculated from unrounded data and
may not sum. Analyses found in the
briefings may not totally reflect the
companies’ opinions, reader
discretion is advised.
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INTRODUCTION
Key findings
Asia Pacific will maintain Asia Pacific is the world’s largest food, beverages and tobacco producer and is
leading producer position forecast a 4.5% CAGR over 2016-2025. Asia Pacific will continue to lead in the
globally production of vegetable oils, grain mill products and commodities such as
sugar, coffee, tea and spices.
Population increase drives Asia Pacific’s population is expected to show a 0.8% CAGR over 2016-2025
food demand growth and reach 4.4 billion people driving demand growth for food and beverage
products. India, China, Pakistan and Indonesia will increase the Asian
population the most contributing to growing food consumption.
Urbanisation and income Higher disposable income will also drive food and beverage production
growth change consumer contributing to growing expenditure on food in Asia Pacific. Moreover, the
habits popularity of Western diets will increase demand for dairy products and
premium alcoholic drinks. Imports are expected to grow to meet growing
demand for premium products.
Palm and soy bean oil - Asia Pacific dominates the global market in palm oil and soy bean oil
remain dominant production and is expected to significantly contribute to food production growth
commodity in Asia Pacific and continue providing the majority of global supply.
China - Asia Pacific’s China is expected to maintain the leading position in food, beverages and
driving force tobacco manufacturing globally and increase industry turnover by 5.1% CAGR
over 2016-2025 driving the entire region’s growth.
Food manufacturing is yet Asia Pacific countries still struggle from a lack of clean water supply and poor
to reach full growth hygiene conditions in food manufacturing facilities, thus hindering full potential
potential industry development.
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INTRODUCTION
PRODUCTION OUTLOOK
COMPETITIVE LANDSCAPE
FOREIGN TRADE
COUNTRY SNAPSHOTS
APPENDIX
PRODUCTION OUTLOOK
Vegetable oil and grain mill industries will drive turnover growth
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PRODUCTION OUTLOOK
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PRODUCTION OUTLOOK
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PRODUCTION OUTLOOK
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PRODUCTION OUTLOOK
Asia Pacific will dominate palm oil, coffee, tea and spices
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PRODUCTION OUTLOOK
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PRODUCTION OUTLOOK
China will play a crucial role in food and beverages industry growth
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PRODUCTION OUTLOOK
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PRODUCTION OUTLOOK
Soft drinks will remain the leading beverage segment in Asia Pacific
© Euromonitor International PASSPORT INDUSTRIALS: FOOD, BEVERAGES AND TOBACCO INDUSTRY IN PASSPORT 14
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INTRODUCTION
PRODUCTION OUTLOOK
COMPETITIVE LANDSCAPE
FOREIGN TRADE
COUNTRY SNAPSHOTS
APPENDIX
COMPETITIVE LANDSCAPE
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COMPETITIVE LANDSCAPE
Source: Euromonitor International from national statistics Source: Euromonitor International from national statistics
© Euromonitor International PASSPORT INDUSTRIALS: FOOD, BEVERAGES AND TOBACCO INDUSTRY IN PASSPORT 17
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INTRODUCTION
PRODUCTION OUTLOOK
COMPETITIVE LANDSCAPE
FOREIGN TRADE
COUNTRY SNAPSHOTS
APPENDIX
FOREIGN TRADE
© Euromonitor International PASSPORT INDUSTRIALS: FOOD, BEVERAGES AND TOBACCO INDUSTRY IN PASSPORT 19
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FOREIGN TRADE
Western lifestyle and higher income increase beverage and dairy imports
© Euromonitor International PASSPORT INDUSTRIALS: FOOD, BEVERAGES AND TOBACCO INDUSTRY IN PASSPORT 20
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INTRODUCTION
PRODUCTION OUTLOOK
COMPETITIVE LANDSCAPE
FOREIGN TRADE
COUNTRY SNAPSHOTS
APPENDIX
COUNTRY SNAPSHOTS
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COUNTRY SNAPSHOTS
Source: Euromonitor International from national statistics Source: Euromonitor International from national statistics
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COUNTRY SNAPSHOTS
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COUNTRY SNAPSHOTS
Source: Euromonitor International from national statistics Source: Euromonitor International from national statistics
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COUNTRY SNAPSHOTS
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COUNTRY SNAPSHOTS
Source: Euromonitor International from national statistics Source: Euromonitor International from national statistics
© Euromonitor International PASSPORT INDUSTRIALS: FOOD, BEVERAGES AND TOBACCO INDUSTRY IN PASSPORT 27
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COUNTRY SNAPSHOTS
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COUNTRY SNAPSHOTS
Source: Euromonitor International from national statistics Source: Euromonitor International from national statistics
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COUNTRY SNAPSHOTS
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COUNTRY SNAPSHOTS
Source: Euromonitor International from national statistics Source: Euromonitor International from national statistics
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COUNTRY SNAPSHOTS
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COUNTRY SNAPSHOTS
Source: Euromonitor International from national statistics Source: Euromonitor International from national statistics
© Euromonitor International PASSPORT INDUSTRIALS: FOOD, BEVERAGES AND TOBACCO INDUSTRY IN PASSPORT 33
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COUNTRY SNAPSHOTS
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COUNTRY SNAPSHOTS
Source: Euromonitor International from national statistics Source: Euromonitor International from national statistics
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COUNTRY SNAPSHOTS
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COUNTRY SNAPSHOTS
Source: Euromonitor International from national statistics Source: Euromonitor International from national statistics
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COUNTRY SNAPSHOTS
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COUNTRY SNAPSHOTS
Source: Euromonitor International from national statistics Source: Euromonitor International from national statistics
© Euromonitor International PASSPORT INDUSTRIALS: FOOD, BEVERAGES AND TOBACCO INDUSTRY IN PASSPORT 39
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COUNTRY SNAPSHOTS
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COUNTRY SNAPSHOTS
Source: Euromonitor International from national statistics Source: Euromonitor International from national statistics
© Euromonitor International PASSPORT INDUSTRIALS: FOOD, BEVERAGES AND TOBACCO INDUSTRY IN PASSPORT 41
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COUNTRY SNAPSHOTS
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COUNTRY SNAPSHOTS
Source: Euromonitor International from national statistics Source: Euromonitor International from national statistics
© Euromonitor International PASSPORT INDUSTRIALS: FOOD, BEVERAGES AND TOBACCO INDUSTRY IN PASSPORT 43
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COUNTRY SNAPSHOTS
© Euromonitor International PASSPORT INDUSTRIALS: FOOD, BEVERAGES AND TOBACCO INDUSTRY IN PASSPORT 44
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COUNTRY SNAPSHOTS
Source: Euromonitor International from national statistics Source: Euromonitor International from national statistics
© Euromonitor International PASSPORT INDUSTRIALS: FOOD, BEVERAGES AND TOBACCO INDUSTRY IN PASSPORT 45
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COUNTRY SNAPSHOTS
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COUNTRY SNAPSHOTS
Source: Euromonitor International from national statistics Source: Euromonitor International from national statistics
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COUNTRY SNAPSHOTS
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COUNTRY SNAPSHOTS
Source: Euromonitor International from national statistics Source: Euromonitor International from national statistics
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COUNTRY SNAPSHOTS
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COUNTRY SNAPSHOTS
Source: Euromonitor International from national statistics Source: Euromonitor International from national statistics
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COUNTRY SNAPSHOTS
© Euromonitor International PASSPORT INDUSTRIALS: FOOD, BEVERAGES AND TOBACCO INDUSTRY IN PASSPORT 52
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COUNTRY SNAPSHOTS
Source: Euromonitor International from national statistics Source: Euromonitor International from national statistics
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INTRODUCTION
PRODUCTION OUTLOOK
COMPETITIVE LANDSCAPE
FOREIGN TRADE
COUNTRY SNAPSHOTS
APPENDIX
APPENDIX: COMPETITOR ANALYTICS
Competitor Analytics is a new tool from Euromonitor International that focuses on fmcg companies and
competitors. It visualises the retail sales footprint and performance of more than 25,000 companies by
geography and product category.
Competitor Analytics also maps the competitive landscape for each of these companies, allowing users to
see with whom each company competes and in which specific markets. To do this, the tool calculates a
numeric “distance” between competitors, allowing the user to track how the competitive landscape is
evolving and which companies are becoming strategically more or less similar.
For a detailed explanation of the graphics in each of Competitor Analytics’ four tabs – Overview,
Competitors, Treemap and Overlap Matrices – please refer to the following slides.
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APPENDIX: COMPETITOR ANALYTICS
Overview
The Overview tab (shown in the graphic below) provides a global snapshot of a company’s sales footprint
and performance, highlighting where it is winning and losing by country and product category.
It shows company (GBO) retail value sales and absolute growth by countries and categories in current
terms and US dollars at a fixed exchange rate for the years spanning 2008 to 2014.
The grey bars represent value sales in the selected “Start Year”, while the green bars show the subsequent
absolute value sales increase between the user-selected start year and 2014. Red bars denote a retail
value decline over the same time period.
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APPENDIX: COMPETITOR ANALYTICS
Competitors
© Euromonitor International PASSPORT INDUSTRIALS: FOOD, BEVERAGES AND TOBACCO INDUSTRY IN PASSPORT 57
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APPENDIX: COMPETITOR ANALYTICS
Market Overlap
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APPENDIX: COMPETITOR ANALYTICS
Treemap
Treemap (as shown in the graphics below ) shows either overlap with a competitor (the left graphic) or
individual company sales (the graphic on the right) by product category and/or country.
The size of each box indicates the proportional size in US dollars of a country, category or market relative
to the total overlap or sales for the geographies and industries selected.
The colour gradient reflects sales or overlap growth/decline over the selected time period. The darker the
green, the higher the growth, and the darker the shade of pink/red, the stronger the rate of decline.
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APPENDIX: COMPETITOR ANALYTICS
Overlap Matrices
Overlap Matrices (as shown in the graphic below) compare two selected competitors (Unilever Group vs
Procter & Gamble Co) in terms of their respective presence across countries and product categories.
The darker the colour shading, the higher the company’s retail value share in that market. The graphic
below shows that Procter & Gamble has a strong share in hair care in China, whereas Unilever is weaker.
Overlap Matrices also highlight respective market gaps and potential white space opportunities. Dark grey
boxes indicate that one of the two companies shown is present in that market, but the other company is not.
A light grey box means that neither of the two selected companies is present.
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APPENDIX: INDUSTRY FORECAST MODEL
The Industry Forecast Model is a new tool from Euromonitor International that integrates intuitive,
judgment-based forecasting with the quantitative techniques of an econometric Industry Demand Model.
The Industry Demand Model assesses the relationship between several historic quantifiable independent
variables (demand drivers) and historic retail volume sales for different markets that Euromonitor tracks.
In identifying these relationships, the model estimates elasticities for each statistically significant demand
driver, including income growth, changing retail prices, demographic trends and retail channel trends.
Multiplying these elasticities by corresponding year-on-year growth forecasts for each demand driver allows
the Forecast Model to build annualised retail volume and value forecasts for a market in a given year.
While estimated demand driver elasticities are constant, forecast demand driver growth can change over
time. For example, forecast GDP growth for a given year is regularly upgraded or downgraded in
Euromonitor International’s Macro Model to reflect changing economic and sociopolitical conditions.
In turn, changing only forecast growth for GDP in this example allows the Packaged Food Forecast Model
to create multiple retail forecasts that capture the impact of these changing macroeconomic conditions.
Impact of Russia GDP Shock on Chocolate Confectionery Retail Volume Forecast in Russia
2015 real GDP % Chocolate income Income effect on 2015 chocolate %
growth forecast elasticity chocolate growth volume growth
Baseline Forecast
+1.43 0.37 +0.53pp +1.41
(June 2014)
Updated Forecast
-3.82 0.37 -1.41pp -0.55
(December 2014)
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APPENDIX: INDUSTRY FORECAST MODEL
The power of Euromonitor International’s forecasting methodology is that it blends statistical modelling with
local market observations reflecting local industry consensus. As such, retail market forecasts also rely on
the insights and expertise of Euromonitor’s global analyst network. Euromonitor analysts work closely with
the Industry Demand Model to ensure that it remains consistent with their empirical observations,
guaranteeing that quantitative and intuitive expectations fully complement each other.
Euromonitor analysts also capture all the demand drivers beyond the scope of the Industry Demand Model.
These “soft drivers” remain critical to future retail sales, but are either fundamentally unquantifiable or have
no globally comparable data with which to measure them.
Soft drivers are captured and measured exclusively by empirical research from Euromonitor analysts, and
their overall positive or negative impact is estimated on top of the results of the Industry Demand Model.
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APPENDIX: INDUSTRY FORECAST MODEL
To help understand and illustrate the impact of each demand driver to a market’s retail growth performance
and prospects, Euromonitor International employs a graphical tool called “growth decomposition”.
The fundamental idea behind growth decomposition is that a product category’s retail sales performance
and future prospects can be explained through changes in underlying demand factors.
As explained above, the impact of demand driver change to retail market sales can be calculated by
multiplying a demand driver’s observed elasticity by that demand driver rate of change over a period of
time. Multiplying demand driver elasticity by forecast demand driver growth yields the percentage points of
overall retail growth that that specific demand driver is contributing to the market forecast under review.
In addition, Euromonitor analysts estimate the impact of “soft drivers” to overall retail growth via their
empirical research. The relative impact and importance of “soft drivers” can be shown alongside that of the
measurable demand drivers identified by the Industry Demand Model.
In the growth decomposition visual below, the percentage points of growth that each demand driver is
contributing to overall market growth are illustrated in the coloured segments of the stacked bar charts.
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APPENDIX: INDUSTRY FORECAST MODEL
By attributing a fraction of overall retail growth to each contributing demand driver, overall category growth
can be “decomposed”. In doing so, an extensive picture of underlying market fundamentals and processes
on a category-by-category and country-by-country basis can be provided.
Ultimately, growth decomposition allows Industry Forecast Model users to:
Identify different demand drivers that affect historic sales, and will likely impact future market prospects;
Evaluate the relative importance of different demand factors over time and then identify which factors
generate the highest deviations in historic - and ultimately future - consumption;
Illuminate the underlying market dynamics for each product category;
Measure and predict the effects of demand driver shocks, either expected or hypothetical;
Facilitate scenario analysis by generating understanding of which demand factors can be influenced by a
manufacturer or retailer and which are beyond their control.
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APPENDIX: INDUSTRY FORECAST MODEL
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FOR FURTHER INSIGHT PLEASE CONTACT
Rasa Vaičiūnienė
Analyst
rasa.vaiciuniene@euromonitor.com
+370 5 243 1577 EXT 4644
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