Electric Load Forecasting

Electric Demand Forecasting

Electric load and demand forecasting involves the projection of peak demand levels and overall energy
consumption patterns to support an electric utility’s future system and business operations. Quanta
Technology is a global leader in research, development, and application of best practices in this field,
with a staff of industry-recognized experts including: H. Lee Willis and Julio Romero-Aguero and an
experience base of over 1000 projects spanning the past forty years. Quanta Technology provides
completed and documented load forecasts, utility load forecasting projects, load forecast improvement
projects, load forecast benchmarking, support, training, and load forecast expert testimony in a wide
range of specific load forecasting categories.

Contents

1. Spatial Load Forecasting

2. Small Area Forecasting
3. Distribution Load Forecasting
4. Transmission Load Forecasting
5. Load Forecasting for Integrated Resource Planning
6. Electric Revenue Forecasting
7. Multi-Scenario Load Forecasting
8. Weather Normalization
9. Training In Load Forecasting
10. Quanta Technology Experts in Load Forecasting
References and Resources

Spatial Load Forecasting

This involves the forecasting of peak load, forecasting of utility customer count, and forecasting of utility
customer energy consumption needs of an area, or spatial basis, sufficient to support the planning of
utility facilities that involve the siting of T&D equipment to serve local regions. The overall growth of a
utility’s peak demand might indicate that during the next decade it will need to add three substations to its
system in order to meet growing demand. But to the planners and engineers who have to develop plans
for those substations, a key element will be where? Where, within the utility system, will those new
substations be required. A spatial electric load forecast, sometimes called a geographic forecast,
provides a projection of electric peak, customer counts, and energy demand done with sufficient
geographic resolution to answer this where question.

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Spatial electric load forecasts must cover a period into the future that provides a good lead time for
planners, so they can arrange additions in a timely and efficient manner. In addition, the period must
extend beyond that far enough that planners can evaluate if the additions being planned will have an
economic and efficient service lifetime or need to be augmented/changed early in their service lifetimes,
etc.

Small Area Forecasting

All spatial forecasts use the small area approach. The service area being studied is divided into a number
of distinct areas and the load for each is forecast. These areas might be the cells of a grid defined by a
GIS system or a mapping coordinate system. They might could be the service areas of the feeders in a
distribution system. Sometimes they are the irregular polygons defined by precinct boundaries or other
geographic features and distinctions. Regardless, a distinct demand and energy forecast, and perhaps
projections and analysis of customer types, etc., is done for each and every small area.
The use of small areas alone does not make a forecast spatial: all spatial forecasts are small area forecasts
but not all small area forecasts are spatial. Spatial forecasts forecast load growth in each small area while
taking into consideration to the extent needed information on load, trends, and conditions in all
surrounding areas and for the mass of all small areas in the system, and forecast all areas in a unified
simultaneous manner, as for example in a demo-economic simulation that allocates growth among all
areas in the utility service territory.
By contrast, a small area method that serially proceeds through each of several hundred feeders in a utility
system, fitting a polynomial to each’s load history and projecting that trend into the future to produce a
load forecast for that area, is a small area method but not a spatial method. This forecast does not analyze
the interactions and patterns of growth among neighboring small areas, or look at how each fits into and is
affected by the overall system growth. It produces several hundred essentially independent forecasts –
each done without consideration of trends and interactions among the total system’s areas.
Spatial resolution of a load forecast refers to the geographic detail it uses – the area size. Generally, a
spatial resolution of at least 1/4th, and ideally, about 1/10th the size of the equipment service areas being
planned is needed to provide effective planning of T&D systems.

Distribution Load Forecasting

This is a form of spatial load forecasting that focuses on providing the information necessary to support
power distribution planning. Typically this means projecting peak loads of primary feeders for periods of
three to ten years into the future. Best practice in distribution load forecasting includes projection of
weather normalized peak demand on a feeder basis for five to ten years into the future, with spatial
resolution (area detail) within each feeder area that meets planners’ needs to know how much load can be
efficiently transferred between feeder areas, what load will be require along feeder reaches, etc. Quanta
Technology staff are involved and chair industry working groups like the IEEE Power Engineering
Society Planning and Implementation Committee, which carries on an active internal program of R&D in
distribution load forecasting.
Our distribution load forecasting experts including Julio Romero-Aguero, H. Lee Willis and Dr. John
Spare have worked with 500 utilities around the world on distribution load forecasting projects, and

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provide regulatory support and expert testimony of load forecasting. Our company maintains an active
internal program of practical and technical R&D in regional distribution load forecasting and planning
including up-to-date benchmarking for distribution load forecasting practices and results and research
into improved forecasting models.
Quanta Technology’s load forecasting project teams are experts in the use of a wide range of distribution
load forecasting methods from regression trending load forecasting to land-use based simulation load
forecasting, including best practice distribution load forecasting like INSITE and advanced distribution
load forecasting methods like LoadSEER, and in preparing and documenting load forecasts and providing
support for managerial, public, and regulatory scrutiny and hearings, including expert testimony on utility
load forecasts including rate case support.

Transmission Load Forecasting

This a form of spatial load forecasting that focuses on providing the information necessary to support
power transmission system planning. Typically this also means projecting peak loads of primary feeders
for periods of three to ten years into the future. Best practice in transmission load forecasting includes
projection of weather normalized peak demand on a substation or substation bus basis for five to thirty
years into the future, with spatial resolution (area detail) within each feeder area which meets planners’
needs to know how much load can be efficiently transferred between substation areas, what load would be
in the area served by a bulk transmission line, or in an area assigned to a possible new substation, etc.
Quanta Technology staff are involved and chair industry working groups like the IEEE Power
Engineering Society Planning and Implementation Committee.
Our transmission load forecasting experts including Don Morrow, H. Lee Willis and Tom Gentile have
worked with 200 utilities around the world on transmission load forecasting projects, and provide
regulatory support and expert testimony of load forecasting. We maintain an active internal program of
practical and technical R&D in regional transmission load forecasting and planning including up-to-date
benchmarking for transmission load forecasting practices and results and research into improved
forecasting models.
Our project teams are experts in the use of a wide range of transmission load forecasting methods, in
preparing and documenting load forecasts and providing support for managerial, public, and regulatory
scrutiny and hearings, and providing expert testimony on utility load forecasts including rate case support.

Load Forecasting for Integrated Resource Planning (IRP)

This involves projecting peak-load and demand-related trends in energy efficiency, conservation, load
control, and demand response, as well as trends in the potential for as-yet unimplemented programs in
those resources. Best practice methods use customer class analysis of energy consumption and end-use
models and analysis of market penetration by appliance type, usually including hourly end use load curve
models of power consumption by customer class and sub-class to analyze and project trends of future
energy efficiency and demand response. Our company has an active internal program of R&D in the
study of IRP load forecasting, including the use of advanced energy efficiency models. Our distribution
load forecasting experts including Don Morrow, H. Lee Willis and Tom Gentile have worked with 200
utilities around the world on transmission load forecasting projects, and some of the widest industry

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experience in rate case capital justification, budget defense strategy, and preparation expert testimony of
load forecasts in utility rate cases. Our project teams are experts in the use of a wide range of
transmission load forecasting methods, in preparing and documenting load forecasts and providing
support for managerial, public, and regulatory scrutiny and hearings.

Electric Revenue Forecasting

This involves projecting revenues from electric sales expected in the future for an electric system.
Typically this is done on a probabilistic basis (for weather and perhaps other scenarios) by customer class
and segment and includes analysis of utility load growth, economics, and regulatory rates . This is not
what Quanta Technology does, and we do not offer these services directly, but provide expertise and
support on the forecasting of demand to partner companies who work with in these fields.

Multi-Scenario Load Forecasting

In many electric utility planning situations, a single forecast based on the expectation of outcomes cannot
be used for effective planning: different outcomes would require far different plans, for which no average
plan can be built. There is uncertainty as to the outcome of major events or load growth factors which
cannot be resolved or “averaged” out of the forecast consideration.
In such cases, planners require a multi-scenario, or what-if load forecasts, covering the different
possibilities, so that they can study the system capability needs of the outcomes and develop contingency
plans for all possible outcomes. Best practice in multi-scenario forecasting is to handle the uncertainty in
the planning by providing planning resource in the T&D expansion plan through effective multi-scenario
planning. Quanta’s Lee Willis pioneered multi-scenario forecasting for T&D planning in the 1980s, with
theoretical work on when and if it is needed, which led to practical guidelines for T&D forecasting
including how many and what type of multi- scenario spatial load forecasts are needed to assure good
planning. Most distribution load forecasts and many transmission load forecasts done by Quanta
Technology involve multi-scenario elements.
Generally, multi-scenario planning does not have to be done for consideration of factors such as energy
efficiency, conservation, demand response, distributed resources, and changes in usage patterns. Planning
for such eventualities is better covered by Integrated Planning Forecast Methods (see above).
Quanta Technology provides methodology, expertise based on field experience, forecast projects, forecast
support and training and knowledge transfer for multi-scenario utility load forecasting and T&D
planning. In particular, our project teams have considerable experience in one thorny issue associated
with multi-scenario forecasts - preparing and documenting the rational and results for defense and
justification of managerial, public, and regulatory scrutiny and hearings.

Weather Normalization
Weather Normalization of Electric Load Data is done for two reasons. First, it removes the effects of
randomness of weather from historical trends in peak load and energy usage, so that they may be more
accurately analyzed for trends due to customer and economic growth and changes in usage patterns.
Second, it standardizes historical and forecast peak and energy values on standard weather conditions to
which the utility plans. Most utilities do not plan their systems to accommodate average (50%) weather,

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but some reasonable extremes such as a 90% extreme (a power system designed to handle the electric
demands of summer heat storms which will occur, on average, once every ten years) are accommodated.
Optimal weather normalization involves determining both weather normalization formulae and factors,
and coordinating these with equipment loading standards designed to fit the expected peak durations and
stress levels of the probabilistic weather patterns the utility can expect as defined by that normalization.
Quanta Technology provides best-practice weather normalization methodology and services in all these
areas including the evaluation and clean-up of weather and load data, determination of weather
normalization formulae and factors, application support for the use of weather normalization, and
regulatory and justification support for its use, including expert testimony.

Training In Load Forecasting.

Quanta Technology provides standard and customized training programs, seminars, and workshops in all
aspects of electric load forecasting and planning. Many of our courses are offered throughout the year at
convenient locations through EUCI and The University of Wisconsin [links to courses], and as part of the
Utility University courses offered at Distributech each year. All Quanta Technology seminars,
workshops and courses are available for on-site training at a utility. This includes our standard courses on
load forecasting including [list of titles here] as well as customized programs and workshops tailored to fit
specific needs. Resources are available to learn at one’s own pace and are published in the books Spatial
Electric Load Forecasting – 2nd Edition and Power Distribution Load Forecasting - 2nd Edition, both by
Quanta’s H. Lee Willis and Business Essentials for Utility Engineers by Quanta’s Dr. Richard E. Brown
(all published by Taylor and Francis/CRC and available from the publisher or from Amazon.com) and
technical papers available from IEEE and our website’s technical resources section.

Quanta Technology Experts in Load Forecasting

Dr. Julio Romero-Aguero
H. Lee Willis PE, Fellow IEEE
Len Januzik PE
Dr. Gerry Sheble PE, Fellow IEEE
Dr. John Spare
Dr. Le Xu

References and Resources

Technical Papers
Article by Quanta Technology Authors: What Happens With a Lack of Long Range T&D Infrastructure
Planning? http://www.quanta-technology.com/sites/default/files/doc-files/What-Happens-Lack-Long-
Range-T-D-Infrastructure-Planning.pdf
Article/presentation on a practical study done by a utility:
http://proceedings.esri.com/library/userconf/egug2008/papers/wednesday/spatial_load_analysis.pdf

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Article from CIRED on techniques used in several studies:
http://www.cired.be/CIRED09/pdfs/CIRED2009_0565_Paper.pdf
Article overview of load forecasting: http://www.mendeley.com/research/electric-load-forecasting-
methods-tools-for-decision-making/
Article by PacifiCorp on forecasting for T&D Asset Management using GIS:
http://proceedings.esri.com/library/userconf/proc05/papers/pap1003.pdf
Classic article: 1983 IEEE Proceedings cover paper on spatial load forecasting in power engineering
(Willis & Northcote-Green) http://ieeexplore.ieee.org/xpl/freeabs_all.jsp?arnumber=1456830
Books
Spatial Electric Load Forecasting – Second Edition, by H. Lee Willis
To purchase the book: http://www.amazon.com/Spatial-Electric-Forecasting-Engineering-
Willis/dp/0824708407/ref=sr_1_1?s=books&ie=UTF8&qid=1325167537&sr=1-1
To access the book on-line and/or download sections: http://www.crcnetbase.com/isbn/9780203910764

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