Elements of Forecasting

© 1999
Business and economic decisions depend ultimately on expectations regarding future events. Economic models form the foundation of forecasts which guide
these business and economic decisions. Good forecasting models do not have to be excessively complex. What they must do is bring to bear the critical economic
variables that are most likely to affect future events, and to portray them in functional forms that capture the critical paths of dependence.

Forecasting Techniques
Qualitative Analysis Data Sources Quantitative Analysis
Personal insight Economic Indicators Linear trend analysis
Panel consensus Composite indices Logarithmic trend analysis
Delphi method Diffusion indices Continuous growth analysis
Survey questionnaires Leading, Lagging, Coincident Indicators
Nonseasonal, additive seasonal, multiplicative seasonal
Linear trend: two-parameter Holt;
three-parameter Winters smoothing
Econometric Models
Input-Output Models

Data Set: American Express Sales Revenue

Year Ln Yr LogYr Actual Sales Estd.Sales-1 Est.LogSales Est.LnSales Ln Sales Log Sales Time Period Linear Regression Model
1977 7.59 3.30 $3,447 $791 $3,683 $3,681 8.1453 3.5374 1 B1
1978 7.59 3.30 $4,086 $2,565 $4,309 $4,307 8.3153 3.6113 2 1773.38
1979 7.59 3.30 $4,666 $4,338 $5,041 $5,039 8.4481 3.6689 3 s.e. = 114.53
1980 7.59 3.30 $5,505 $6,111 $5,899 $5,896 8.6134 3.7408 4 R^2 = 0.9486
1981 7.59 3.30 $7,210 $7,885 $6,901 $6,898 8.8832 3.8579 5 F= 239.75
1982 7.59 3.30 $8,093 $9,658 $8,074 $8,071 8.9988 3.9081 6 RSS 880567582.889
1983 7.59 3.30 $9,770 $11,432 $9,447 $9,443 9.1871 3.9899 7 R^2adj= 0.9458
1984 7.59 3.30 $12,895 $13,205 $11,053 $11,048 9.4646 4.1104 8
1985 7.59 3.30 $11,850 $14,978 $12,932 $12,926 9.3801 4.0737 9 St = -3505185.24
1986 7.59 3.30 $14,652 $16,752 $15,131 $15,124 9.5923 4.1659 10 -15.43
1987 7.59 3.30 $17,626 $18,525 $17,703 $17,695 9.7771 4.2462 11
1988 7.59 3.30 $23,132 $20,298 $20,712 $20,703 10.0490 4.3642 12
1989 7.60 3.30 $25,047 $22,072 $24,234 $24,223 10.1285 4.3988 13
1990 7.60 3.30 $24,332 $23,845 $28,353 $28,341 10.0995 4.3862 14
1991 7.60 3.30 $25,763 $25,619 $33,173 $33,159 10.1567 4.4110 15
1992 7.60 3.30 $27,392 $38,813 $38,795 16
1993 7.60 3.30 $29,165 $45,411 $45,391 17
1994 7.60 3.30 $30,939 $53,131 $53,107 18American Express Sales
1995 7.60 3.30 $32,712 $62,163 $62,135 $30,000 in
19$U.S.millions, 1977-1991
$25,000
1996 7.60 3.30 $34,486 $72,731 $72,698 20
$20,000
1997 7.60 3.30 $36,259 $85,095 $85,057 21
$15,000
1998 7.60 3.30 $38,032 $99,561 $99,517 22
$10,000
1999 7.60 3.30 $39,806 $116,486 $116,435 23
$5,000
2000 7.60 3.30 $41,579 $136,289 $136,228 24
$
1976 1978 1980 1982 1984 1986 1988 1990 1992
Actual Linear Logarithmic
Comparative
1977 Sales 3447
Projections 791 3683
35000
American Express
1978 4086 2565 4309 Logarithmic Growth Rate Model
1979 4666 4338 5041 B1 Constant
30000
1980 5505 6111 5899 0.067 3.498
1981 7210 7885 6901 s.e. = 0.00 0.02
1982 8093 9658 8074 R^2 = 0.9794 0.0449
25000
1983 9770 11432 9447 F= 617.17 13
1984 12895 13205 11053 RSS 1.25 0.0262
20000 1985 11850 14978 12932 R^2adj= 0.9789
1986 14652 16752 15131
15000 1987 17626 18525 17703 logSt = 3.498 0.067
1988 23132 20298 20712 143.33 24.84
10000 1989 25047 22072 24234
1990 24332 23845 28353 1976 base: 3147.75 =antilog of constant
5000

0
 10000

5000 1991 25763 25619 33173 Annual growth rate: 1.17 = antilog of B1

0
1976 1978 1980 1982 1984 1986 1988 1990 1992
Actual Linear Logarithmic

Consider now the use of exponential smoothing to derive a forecast. We state here the one-parameter, two- parameter (Holt),
and three-parameter (Winters) exponential smoothing formulae:

Definitional Equations:
One-Parameter (Simple) Exponential Smoothing:
St = aYt + a(1-a)(Yt-1)+(a(1-a)^2 )(Y2-2)+....
St = aYt + (1-a)St-1

Two-Parameter (Holt) Exponential Smoothing:

Yt(m) = St + mTt, where
St = the smoothed level at the end of time t
m = the forecast lead time
T = the smoothed trend at the end of time t. from which we get:
St = aYt + (1-a)St-1+Tt-1),
Tt = g(St-St-1)+(1-g)Tt-1 where:
a = smoothing parameter for the level component of a series
Yt = observed value at time t
Tt = smoothed trend atg the end of time t
g = smoothing parameter for the trend component

Three-Parameter (Winters) Exponential Smoothing

Yt(m) = (St + mTt)Ît(m) from which we get:
St = (aYt/(It-p))+(1-a)(St-1+Tt-1)
Tt = g(St-St-1)+(1-g)Tt-1
It = d(Yt/St)+(1-d)It-1,

St = smoothed level at the end of time t

a = smoothing parameter for the level component of the forecast series
Yt = observed value at time t
It = smoothed seasonal index at the end of time t
p = number of periods per year
Tt = smoothed trend at the end of time t

Simple Exponential Smoothing

Retail Monthly Sales Model, 1960-1992
8000.00

7000.00 Continuous Growth Rate Model

6000.00 0.154 8.054

s.e. = 0.006 0.056
5000.00
R^2 = 0.9794 0.1034
4000.00 F= 617.17 13
RSS 6.60 0.1390
3000.00 R^2adj= 0.9789
2000.00
LnSt = 8.054 0.154
143.33 24.84
1000.00

0.00 1976 base: 3146.35 =antilog of constant

1978.00 1980.00 1982.00 1984.00 1986.00 1988.00 1990.00 1992.00 Annual growth rate: 1.17 = antilog of B1
 0.00
1978.00 1980.00 1982.00 1984.00 1986.00 1988.00 1990.00 1992.00

Data Set: Retail Sales, Drug and Proprietary Stores (In Millions of Dollars) Winter's a b
Simple Smoothing Factor: 0.168 Error Holt Holt's a,b = 0.052 0.294 a,b,g = 0.128 0.349
Actual Smoothed Error Squared Smoothing Trend Est. Forecast Error E^2 Smoothed Seas.Adj. Trend
Xt Ft St Tt
### 2411.00 1.37 20.00
### 2410.7310 2410.73 2295.9680 40.00 2335.9680 2345.07 1.25 18.88
### 2295.9680 2410.73 -114.76 13170.55 2339.8557 41.14 2380.9987 -85.03 7230.22 2296.35 1.16 18.00
### 2405.3250 2391.45 13.87 192.49 2376.5771 39.84 2416.4201 -11.10 123.10 2282.82 1.12 17.59
### 2458.6920 2393.78 64.91 4213.35 2415.8432 39.67 2455.5166 3.18 10.08 2285.73 1.11 17.40
### 2512.2900 2404.69 107.60 11578.49 2455.6817 39.72 2495.4037 16.89 285.15 2298.63 1.10 17.34
### 2468.3040 2422.76 45.54 2073.89 2496.2818 39.98 2536.2619 -67.96 4618.27 2306.08 1.09 17.22
### 2451.3450 2430.41 20.93 438.08 2532.7281 38.94 2571.6692 -120.32 14477.92 2313.43 1.08 17.09
### 2515.7750 2433.93 81.84 6698.44 2565.4124 37.10 2602.5140 -86.74 7523.66 2330.31 1.08 17.09
### 2455.2800 2447.68 7.60 57.75 2598.0036 35.78 2633.7792 -178.50 31861.97 2337.92 1.07 16.96
### 2628.8140 2448.96 179.86 32348.38 2624.4972 33.05 2657.5439 -28.73 825.41 2368.04 1.08 17.13
### 2582.0080 2479.17 102.83 10574.96 2656.0500 32.61 2688.6575 -106.65 11374.11 2384.83 1.08 17.13
### 3731.7840 2496.45 1235.33 1526051.14 2683.1117 30.98 2714.0887 1017.70 1035703.72 2535.41 1.22 18.86
### 2666.0190 2703.99 -37.97 1441.47 2767.0089 46.54 2813.5444 -147.53 21763.74 2507.28 1.16 18.25
### 2487.9080 2697.61 -209.70 43973.81 2805.8731 44.28 2850.1533 -362.25 131221.62 2475.70 1.11 17.60
### 2671.5000 2662.38 9.12 83.21 2831.3165 38.74 2870.0587 -198.56 39425.55 2482.53 1.10 17.46
### 2705.1480 2663.91 41.24 1700.54 2859.7336 35.71 2895.4402 -190.29 36211.13 2495.51 1.09 17.41
### 2790.3300 2670.84 119.49 14278.27 2885.5450 32.80 2918.3424 -128.01 16387.19 2518.10 1.10 17.47
### 2769.8880 2690.91 78.98 6237.07 2911.6858 30.84 2942.5262 -172.64 29803.93 2533.89 1.10 17.45
### 2801.1200 2704.18 96.94 9397.22 2933.5490 28.20 2961.7500 -160.63 25802.01 2551.79 1.10 17.46
### 2785.8750 2720.47 65.41 4278.27 2953.3973 25.75 2979.1426 -193.27 37352.38 2565.50 1.09 17.41
### 2679.5670 2731.46 -51.89 2692.38 2969.0927 22.79 2991.8834 -312.32 97541.54 2566.09 1.08 17.19
### 2844.6800 2722.74 121.94 14869.87 2975.6430 18.02 2993.6589 -148.98 22194.72 2591.02 1.08 17.29
### 2812.0300 2743.22 68.81 4734.24 2985.9120 15.74 3001.6504 -189.62 35955.91 2606.61 1.08 17.27
### 4012.9170 2754.78 1258.13 1582899.71 2991.7902 12.84 3004.6297 1008.29 1016643.37 2762.77 1.21 19.07
### 2771.5140 2966.15 -194.64 37883.17 3057.0606 28.25 3085.3148 -313.80 98470.93 2718.64 1.14 18.25
### 2684.7170 2933.45 -248.73 61868.67 3068.9971 23.46 3092.4539 -407.74 166249.40 2686.87 1.09 17.60
### 2899.5400 2891.66 7.88 62.03 3071.2516 17.22 3088.4749 -188.93 35696.40 2697.66 1.09 17.51
### 2971.0400 2892.99 78.05 6092.27 3078.6503 14.33 3092.9852 -121.95 14870.63 2717.45 1.09 17.54
### 2957.8470 2906.10 51.75 2677.76 3086.6440 12.47 3099.1146 -141.27 19956.53 2732.49 1.09 17.51
### 2942.7200 2914.79 27.93 779.89 3091.7687 10.31 3102.0796 -159.36 25395.47 2744.55 1.08 17.44
### 2956.9470 2919.49 37.46 1403.39 3093.7929 7.87 3101.6675 -144.72 20944.01 2758.34 1.08 17.39
### 2961.2640 2925.78 35.49 1259.21 3094.1420 5.66 3099.8041 -138.54 19193.36 2771.94 1.07 17.34
### 2875.6530 2931.74 -56.09 3145.78 3092.6000 3.54 3096.1441 -220.49 48616.33 2774.70 1.06 17.15
### 3027.3700 2922.32 105.05 11036.01 3084.6786 0.17 3084.8518 -57.48 3304.16 2799.58 1.07 17.25
### 3090.1240 2939.97 150.16 22547.31 3081.8627 -0.71 3081.1572 8.97 80.40 2826.49 1.08 17.38
### 4347.5150 2965.19 1382.32 1910814.51 3081.6235 -0.57 3081.0550 1266.46 1603920.92 2996.52 1.21 19.36
### 3039.1200 3197.42 -158.30 25059.83 3146.9109 18.79 3165.7041 -126.58 16023.53 2952.01 1.15 18.53
### 3002.8570 3170.83 -167.97 28214.28 3159.1217 16.86 3175.9797 -173.12 29971.46 2925.88 1.10 17.95
### 3254.7130 3142.61 112.10 12567.32 3166.9773 14.21 3181.1886 73.52 5405.84 2944.44 1.10 17.96
### 3235.6280 3161.44 74.19 5503.50 3185.0118 15.34 3200.3471 35.28 1244.74 2958.23 1.10 17.91
### 3294.6060 3173.91 120.70 14568.59 3202.1817 15.87 3218.0564 76.55 5859.84 2978.33 1.10 17.94
### 3300.6400 3194.18 106.46 11333.04 3222.0370 17.04 3239.0820 61.56 3789.39 2995.92 1.10 17.93
### 3292.4700 3212.07 80.40 6464.48 3242.2830 17.99 3260.2690 32.20 1036.90 3010.40 1.10 17.89
### 3355.5180 3225.58 129.94 16885.04 3261.9435 18.48 3280.4218 75.10 5639.43 3031.38 1.10 17.93
### 3304.4180 3247.41 57.01 3250.38 3284.3268 19.63 3303.9533 0.46 0.22 3042.83 1.10 17.84
### 3324.6720 3256.98 67.69 4581.68 3303.9774 19.63 3323.6110 1.06 1.13 3057.05 1.09 17.79
### 3433.5000 3268.36 165.14 27272.70 3323.6661 19.65 3343.3159 90.18 8133.18 3083.25 1.10 17.90
### 4719.6900 3296.10 1423.59 2026609.11 3348.0054 21.03 3369.0339 1350.66 1824271.82 3253.22 1.22 19.88
### 3382.8960 3535.26 -152.37 23215.68 3439.2680 41.68 3480.9454 -98.05 9613.68 3208.30 1.16 19.04
### 3365.1540 3509.67 -144.51 20883.51 3475.8468 40.18 3516.0251 -150.87 22762.10 3184.30 1.13 18.48
### 3534.2400 3485.39 48.85 2386.58 3508.1798 37.87 3546.0516 -11.81 139.51 3194.39 1.12 18.37
### 3522.5520 3493.59 28.96 838.53 3545.4374 37.69 3583.1287 -60.58 3669.53 3204.28 1.11 18.26
### 3630.8600 3498.46 132.40 17529.90 3579.9787 36.77 3616.7438 14.12 199.27 3227.82 1.12 18.33
### 3588.3550 3520.70 67.65 4576.83 3617.4779 36.98 3654.4588 -66.10 4369.72 3241.91 1.11 18.27
### 3473.1480 3532.07 -58.92 3471.61 3651.0214 35.97 3686.9918 -213.84 45729.16 3242.19 1.10 18.04
### 3622.1050 3522.17 99.94 9987.06 3675.8719 32.70 3708.5730 -86.47 7476.72 3264.93 1.10 18.10
### 3428.8400 3538.96 -110.12 12126.16 3704.0767 31.38 3735.4559 -306.62 94013.29 3260.92 1.08 17.81
### 3603.0190 3520.46 82.56 6816.17 3719.5118 26.69 3746.2035 -143.18 20501.80 3284.26 1.09 17.88
### 3749.9440 3534.33 215.62 46489.84 3738.7579 24.50 3763.2605 -13.32 177.33 3320.25 1.10 18.12
### 5076.0750 3570.55 1505.52 2266598.59 3762.5681 24.30 3786.8671 1289.21 1662056.91 3500.08 1.22 20.22
### 3643.1510 3823.48 -180.33 32518.59 3853.9059 44.01 3897.9144 -254.76 64904.40 3450.61 1.17 19.32
### 3548.0700 3793.18 -245.11 60081.28 3884.6667 40.11 3924.7804 -376.71 141910.70 3415.45 1.12 18.61
### 3773.9070 3752.01 21.90 479.67 3905.1914 34.35 3939.5459 -165.64 27436.25 3425.31 1.11 18.49
### 3754.4650 3755.68 -1.22 1.49 3930.9327 31.82 3962.7549 -208.29 43384.68 3434.21 1.11 18.37
### 3894.3720 3755.48 138.89 19290.98 3951.9238 28.64 3980.5617 -86.19 7428.66 3460.93 1.11 18.48
### 3753.9040 3778.81 -24.91 620.50 3976.0798 27.32 4003.4000 -249.50 62248.28 3465.60 1.10 18.30
### 3791.6560 3774.63 17.03 289.92 3990.4262 23.51 4013.9322 -222.28 49406.69 3478.03 1.10 18.22
### 3904.4760 3777.49 126.99 16125.56 4002.3738 20.11 4022.4815 -118.01 13925.31 3503.72 1.10 18.32
### 3687.2010 3798.82 -111.62 12459.53 4016.3453 18.30 4034.6489 -347.45 120720.07 3498.72 1.09 18.02
### 3922.9920 3780.07 142.92 20426.49 4016.5816 12.99 4029.5735 -106.58 11359.63 3528.76 1.10 18.17
### 3922.8530 3804.08 118.77 14106.67 4024.0313 11.36 4035.3938 -112.54 12665.43 3551.36 1.10 18.23
### 5388.0260 3824.04 1563.99 2446067.49 4029.5417 9.64 4039.1836 1348.84 1819375.76 3740.48 1.22 20.45
### 3815.6480 4086.79 -271.14 73515.59 4109.3234 30.26 4139.5865 -323.94 104936.14 3680.56 1.15 19.41
### 3617.1240 4041.23 -424.11 179869.69 4122.7417 25.31 4148.0524 -530.93 281884.93 3627.35 1.10 18.46
### 4113.6220 3969.98 143.64 20631.90 4120.4441 17.19 4137.6379 -24.02 576.77 3657.96 1.11 18.62
### 3863.4200 3994.12 -130.70 17081.21 4136.3891 16.83 4153.2158 -289.80 83981.62 3652.14 1.09 18.30
### 4212.1220 3972.16 239.96 57582.56 4138.1464 12.40 4150.5427 61.58 3792.01 3694.93 1.11 18.62
### 4097.1790 4012.47 84.71 7175.24 4153.7449 13.34 4167.0826 -69.90 4886.51 3711.57 1.11 18.60
### 4108.5680 4026.70 81.87 6701.88 4163.4476 12.27 4175.7166 -67.15 4508.94 3727.97 1.10 18.57
### 4139.3100 4040.46 98.85 9772.06 4172.2249 11.24 4183.4674 -44.16 1949.87 3746.48 1.10 18.57
### 3957.3630 4057.06 -99.70 9940.23 4181.1712 10.57 4191.7386 -234.38 54931.91 3741.56 1.09 18.26
### 4128.9040 4040.31 88.59 7848.19 4179.5510 6.98 4186.5353 -57.63 3321.37 3764.12 1.09 18.32
### 4197.3750 4055.20 142.18 20214.55 4183.5385 6.10 4189.6417 7.73 59.80 3790.56 1.10 18.42
### 6409.1470 4079.08 2330.06 5429198.24 4190.0438 6.22 4196.2652 2212.88 4896845.78 4069.29 1.26 21.81
### 4175.2600 4470.53 -295.27 87186.59 4311.3351 40.05 4351.3870 -176.13 31020.73 3990.32 1.19 20.50
### 3927.2600 4420.93 -493.67 243707.86 4342.2284 37.36 4379.5877 -452.33 204600.39 3920.60 1.12 19.32
### 4157.3840 4337.99 -180.61 32619.10 4356.0667 30.44 4386.5108 -229.13 52499.11 3909.51 1.10 18.93
### 4352.1800 4307.65 44.53 1982.97 4374.5962 26.94 4401.5375 -49.36 2436.16 3931.05 1.10 18.96
### 4409.1800 4315.13 94.05 8845.28 4398.9709 26.19 4425.1576 -15.98 255.28 3955.67 1.11 19.04
### 4384.0650 4330.93 53.13 2823.23 4424.3267 25.94 4450.2691 -66.20 4382.99 3972.57 1.11 19.01
### 4399.5600 4339.86 59.70 3564.39 4446.8265 24.93 4471.7568 -72.20 5212.38 3989.72 1.11 18.98
### 4413.3880 4349.89 63.50 4032.32 4468.0026 23.83 4491.8291 -78.44 6153.01 4006.83 1.10 18.96
### 4225.4000 4360.56 -135.16 18267.03 4487.7502 22.63 4510.3775 -284.98 81212.16 4000.49 1.09 18.63
### 4504.0170 4337.85 166.17 27611.66 4495.5587 18.27 4513.8292 -9.81 96.28 4034.96 1.10 18.84
### 4492.5840 4365.77 126.82 16082.91 4513.3190 18.12 4531.4396 -38.86 1509.76 4058.96 1.10 18.90
### 6744.2060 4387.07 2357.13 5556085.05 4529.4191 17.53 4546.9456 2197.26 4827953.07 4340.22 1.26 22.31
### 4330.7460 4783.07 -452.32 204596.77 4661.2032 51.12 4712.3215 -381.58 145599.83 4244.49 1.18 20.78
### 4315.1600 4707.08 -391.92 153600.78 4692.4795 45.28 4737.7643 -422.60 178594.37 4189.16 1.12 19.79
### 4726.2500 4641.24 85.01 7227.23 4715.7889 38.82 4754.6128 -28.36 804.45 4208.04 1.12 19.78
### 4567.7650 4655.52 -87.75 7700.78 4753.1380 38.39 4791.5283 -223.76 50070.02 4206.73 1.11 19.50
### 4698.4500 4640.78 57.67 3326.24 4779.8926 34.97 4814.8621 -116.41 13551.77 4226.67 1.11 19.51
### 4658.3360 4650.47 7.87 61.94 4808.8087 33.19 4841.9984 -183.66 33731.88 4239.32 1.11 19.42
### 4525.7520 4651.79 -126.04 15885.02 4832.4480 30.38 4862.8299 -337.08 113621.51 4237.01 1.09 19.14
### 4658.8580 4630.61 28.24 797.74 4845.3018 25.23 4870.5305 -211.67 44805.26 4256.79 1.09 19.15
### 4536.0170 4635.36 -99.34 9868.80 4859.5236 21.99 4881.5162 -345.50 119369.69 4259.48 1.08 18.93
### 4572.7360 4618.67 -45.93 2109.88 4863.5502 16.71 4880.2609 -307.52 94571.54 4270.89 1.08 18.84
### 4754.0780 4610.95 143.13 20484.88 4864.2696 12.01 4876.2788 -122.20 14933.03 4304.54 1.09 19.03
### 6979.6350 4635.00 2344.64 5497324.29 4869.9243 10.14 4880.0653 2099.57 4408192.82 4591.31 1.24 22.51
### 4713.3520 5028.90 -315.54 99568.48 4989.2429 42.24 5031.4822 -318.13 101206.80 4510.26 1.17 21.16
### 4574.3770 4975.89 -401.51 161208.85 5014.9394 37.38 5052.3150 -477.94 228424.77 4451.34 1.12 20.12
### 5110.2000 4908.43 201.77 40710.39 5027.4623 30.07 5057.5312 52.67 2774.00 4482.57 1.13 20.27
### 4607.1540 4942.33 -335.17 112342.20 5060.2700 30.87 5091.1441 -483.99 234246.40 4449.41 1.10 19.57
### 5006.0000 4886.02 119.98 14395.32 5065.9766 23.47 5089.4515 -83.45 6964.15 4481.86 1.10 19.74
### 4924.9200 4906.18 18.74 351.33 5085.1120 22.20 5107.3111 -182.39 33266.51 4496.93 1.10 19.68
### 4778.8650 4909.33 -130.46 17019.86 5097.8267 19.41 5117.2374 -338.37 114495.90 4494.44 1.09 19.39
### 4982.7330 4887.41 95.33 9086.88 5099.6421 14.24 5113.8797 -131.15 17199.46 4522.61 1.09 19.50
### 4857.3900 4903.42 -46.03 2118.99 5107.0601 12.23 5119.2928 -261.90 68593.05 4529.89 1.09 19.34
### 4904.2580 4895.69 8.57 73.43 5105.6738 8.23 5113.9025 -209.64 43950.82 4545.30 1.08 19.29
### 5227.7720 4897.13 330.64 109325.04 5103.0010 5.02 5108.0247 119.75 14339.42 4598.12 1.10 19.73
### 7350.9600 4952.68 2398.28 5751762.75 5114.2515 6.85 5121.1059 2229.85 4972249.39 4880.67 1.24 23.15
### 5259.6000 5355.59 -95.99 9213.75 5237.0583 40.94 5278.0027 -18.40 338.66 4817.75 1.19 22.03
### 4827.4380 5339.46 -512.02 262168.85 5277.0457 40.66 5317.7088 -490.27 240365.41 4739.45 1.13 20.72
### 5245.0200 5253.44 -8.42 70.93 5292.2147 33.17 5325.3824 -80.36 6458.12 4744.84 1.12 20.52
### 5350.9920 5252.03 98.96 9794.02 5321.2036 31.94 5353.1428 -2.15 4.63 4766.06 1.12 20.53
### 5455.7360 5268.65 187.08 34999.92 5353.0309 31.91 5384.9372 70.80 5012.46 4796.31 1.13 20.66
### 5343.7300 5300.08 43.65 1905.04 5388.6188 32.99 5421.6075 -77.88 6064.90 4807.10 1.12 20.53
### 5237.6060 5307.42 -69.81 4873.42 5417.5578 31.80 5449.3559 -211.75 44838.03 4807.26 1.11 20.27
### 5491.3440 5295.69 195.66 38281.34 5438.3449 28.56 5466.9058 24.44 597.23 4842.50 1.12 20.46
### 5141.5080 5328.56 -187.05 34987.73 5468.1766 28.93 5497.1110 -355.60 126453.51 4828.75 1.10 20.02
### 5297.13 5478.6197 23.50 5502.1177
###
###

Summary
#REF!statistics: 107 Sum
#REF! Simple
of squared errors
MSE
RMSE
#REF! Holt
### Winters
289475.27
538.03
#REF! (1)
32972584.36
257598.32
507.54
#REF! ###
108779.00
329.82
#REF! #REF!
#REF!
#REF! 98
103
99
126
128
122 #REF!
#REF! #REF!
#REF! #REF!
#REF! #REF!
#REF! #REF! #REF!
#REF! 130
125
124 #REF! #REF! #REF! #REF!
SumMean Square#REF!
of Squared #REF!
Errors
Error
RMSE
#REF!
#REF!
#REF!
 Dr. P. LeBel
asts which guide
the critical economic

al, multiplicative seasonal

Winters smoothing

near Regression Model

Constant
-3505185.24
227228.29
1916.4554 =SER
13 =d.f.
47746418.044 =ESS

1773.38
15.48 t

s Sales
977-1991

86 1988 1990 1992

owth Rate Model

=SER
=d.f.
=ESS

antilog of constant
owth Rate Model

antilog of constant
 g m
0.0130 1
Forecast
Wt+m Error ror

2956.4568 ######
2691.8497 ######
2587.7690 ######
2551.2434 -92.55
###
2553.5265 -41.24
###
2535.4708 -67.17
###
2517.5601 -66.22
###
2535.2407 -19.47
###
2518.8141 -63.53
###
2584.9381 43.88
###
2602.2280 -20.22
###
3113.5604 618.22
###
2941.3333 ######
2764.8267 ######
2743.6456 -72.15
###
2746.0230 -40.87
###
2784.3664 5.96
###
2797.2408 -27.35
###
2818.0662 -16.95
###
2823.1773 -37.30
###
2779.5871 ######
2826.4656 18.21
###
2838.9086 -26.88
###
3369.5695 643.35
###
3131.9004 ######
2957.8219 ######
2951.6642 -52.12
###
2979.1505 -8.11
###
2988.9729 -31.13
###
2987.8426 -45.12
###
2993.2410 -36.29
###
2998.0578 -36.79
###
2963.3461 -87.69
###
3009.4594 17.91
###
3063.0521 27.07
###
3641.7440 705.77
###
3402.4411 ######
3249.5070 ######
3271.5934 -16.88
###
3275.7541 -40.13
###
3303.6797 -9.07
###
3322.1304 -21.49
###
3328.9693 -36.50
###
3360.2009 -4.68
###
3355.6458 -51.23
###
3361.7100 -37.04
###
3412.4482 21.05
###
4001.9133 717.78
###
3756.4547 ######
3608.1021 ######
3596.7350 -62.50
###
3584.9771 -62.43
###
3625.2826 5.58
###
3629.6621 -41.31
###
3581.8155 ######
3619.1876 2.92
###
3556.2157 ######
3595.9262 7.09
###
3682.5006 67.44
###
4309.7393 766.34
###
4044.0672 ######
3850.4986 ######
3837.9975 -64.09
###
3822.2207 -67.76
###
3873.9877 20.38
###
3842.2533 -88.35
###
3840.3949 -48.74
###
3888.3238 16.15
###
3820.9478 ######
3884.9691 38.02
###
3921.3744 1.48
###
4580.3569 807.67
###
4272.1602 ######
4009.2734 ######
4075.0253 38.60
###
4003.5066 ######
4114.3281 97.79
###
4127.4907 -30.31
###
4139.8263 -31.26
###
4160.1179 -20.81
###
4092.3375 ######
4128.1375 0.77
###
4178.2796 19.10
###
5170.3053 ######
4764.4674 ######
4424.2183 ######
4329.7203 ######
4360.3625 -8.18
###
4402.5527 6.63
###
4415.5873 -31.52
###
4429.6357 -30.08
###
4443.5384 -30.15
###
4369.4859 ######
4448.3173 55.70
###
4488.2613 4.32
###
5491.6593 ######
5014.1924 ######
4734.2414 ######
4753.0221 -26.77
###
4694.5962 ######
4717.9400 -19.49
###
4713.6670 -55.33
###
4653.3505 ######
4676.6727 -17.81
###
4636.3801 ######
 4629.1905 -56.45
###
4703.8842 50.19
###
5715.6384 ######
5307.1064 ######
5012.8842 ######
5077.8096 32.39
###
4895.7719 ######
4965.1976 40.80
###
4969.4349 -44.51
###
4908.1292 ######
4961.6877 21.05
###
4937.5929 -80.20
###
4944.0788 -39.82
###
5088.4673 139.30
###
6095.3763 ######
5760.2633 ######
5380.3998 ######
5344.8908 -99.87
###
5370.5662 -19.57
###
5430.6785 25.06
###
5416.1215 -72.39
###
5361.4515 ######
5440.4981 50.85
###
5333.2520 ######

Winters
Sum of squared errors
###
MSE
###
RMSE###