G/ subsgroup

Commodity & Commodity equity(20%) GLD SLV GDX GDXJ TAN

Equity shorts (10%) EUFN EWQ EWI
Currency (20%) FXY FXE(short) FXB(short)FXA(short)
Bonds (20%) IEF ZROZ TFI
Equity Longs 20% EWZ EIDO EWW XLU
Low Beta Stocks 10% DLTR VTR WELL O ACC

Drivers
Bonds & Cash 0.25
Value - dividend Portfolio 0.25
Growth - Momentum Portfolio 0.25
Systematic Portfolio 0.25 Fidelity
Contango and Roll Yeild Portfolio/Spreads D-IRA
Lottery Tickets Portfolio (Options/3X/3beta) P-IRA
Global Macro & carry Portfolio 75%
Long-Short & Market Netural Portfolio 25% Schwab
 GLD
VNQ
MJ PALL EUO

DLR WPC
 and you know the "Net Credit" and the "Days before expiration"
you can enter them below to compute the "ARORC"

Spread: S = $0.50
Net Credit: NC = $0.03
Risk Capital: RC = $0.47 = S - NC = $45 - $0.43 = $44.57
Return on Risk Capital: RORC = 6.38% = NC / RC
= $0.43 / $44.57
= 0.96%

Days before Expiration: D = 27

Multiple: M = 13.52 = 365/D
= 365/58
= 6.29

Annualized Return on Risk Capital: ARORC = 86.29% = RORC * M

= 0.96% * 6.29
= 6.07%

you can enter your expected "ARORC" below to compute

the minimum "Net Credit" to obtain the expected "ARORC"

If we have an expected ARORC = 48%

and we know the Spread (S) and Days Left (D)
Net Credit has to be at least: NC >=
$0.02 = (ARORC*D*S)/(365+(ARORC*D))
= (48%*58*45)/(365+(48%*58))
= (0.48*58*45)/(365+(0.48*58))
= $3.19
 You fill in the green cells.
The sheet computes the blue.
 Put debit spread BCSSpread)
(Bear Call
TRADE BPS
DATE 15-Jan-15 15-Jan-15
STOCK GLD RUT RUT
PRICE 123.94 1164.00 1164.00
STICKER
EXPIRATION March FEB FEB
DAYS (DTE) 35 35 35
FLOOR/CEILING AT 120.84 1208.00 1040.00
3% of FLOOR/CEILING 4 36 31
MAX/MIN STRIKE 124 1244 1009
PROBABILITY 90.00% 92.00% 94.00%
DELTA 7% 6%
SHORT STRIKE 119.5 1270 1010
% OTM -3.6% 9.1% 13.2%
ADJUSTED % OTM -4.6% 11.7% 17.0%
LONG STRIKE 119 1280 1000
SPREAD (LOW PRICE) 0.5 $10.00 $10.00
PREMIUM COLLECTED
PREMIUM PAID
CREDIT/(DEBIT) 0.03 $0.37 $0.46
COMMISSION
NET CREDIT (NC)(w) 0.03 $0.37 $0.46
RISK CAPITAL (RC) $0.47 $9.63 $9.54
RETURN ON RC (RORC) 6.38% 3.84% 4.82%
Multiplier (M) 10.4 10.4 10.4
ANNUALIZED RORC (ARORC) 66.57% 40.07% 50.28%

QTR REPORT DATE NA NA

KELLY FORMULA
PROBABILITY (W) 91.00% 92.00% 94.00%
% RC AT RISK (ATM or 70%?) 50% 30% 30%
AVG LOSS (l) $0.24 $2.89 $2.86
R=w/l 13% 13% 16%
K% = W-((1-W)/R) 20.5% 29.5% 56.7%
Bankroll $600,000 $600,000
Maximum Bet $177,211 $340,017
Theoretical Shares 18402 35641
Theoretical Contracts 184 356

ACTUAL CONTRACTS 160 160

ACTUAL SHARES 16000 16000
 MAX RISK
NC TOTAL $5,920 $7,360
RC TOTAL $154,080 $152,640
RESULT CLOSED EXPIRED
PROB DROPS <70%
DATE
DEBIT SHORT
CREDIT LONG
NET DEBIT $0.09
TOTAL DEBIT $1,440 $0
NET CREDIT (DEBIT) $4,480 $7,360

Feb 13 2015
RUT broke
Ceiling of 1210
NOTES and moved up
with other
indexes. Took
off BCS.

FINAL RORC 2.91% 4.82%

FINAL ARORC 30.32% 50.28%
SUMMARY YTD 2014 3-Mar-15
ALL

TOTAL TRADES YTD 20

OPEN TRADES 4
CLOSED TRADES 16
WINS 20
LOSSES 0
WINNING % 100%
TOTAL NET CREDIT $188,271
BANKROLL $600,000
YTD RORC 31.4%
ANNUALIZED RORC 179.0%
-133.30%
 IRON BCS (Bear
ROP BPS BPS BPS ROP
CONDOR Call Spread)
15-Jan-15 20-Jan-15 28-Jan-15 28-Jan-15 28-Jan-15 4-Feb-15 29-Jan-15
RUT IBM HTZ BP BABA IBM GLD
1164.00 155.00 21.34 38.88 90.14 157.00 123.00

FEB FEB MAR MAR FEB FEB MAR

35 30 51 51 22 15 48
151.00 20.00 36.00 89.00 151.00 123.00
5 1 1 3 5 4
146 19 35 86 146 127
86.5% 60.00% 72.00% 77.00% 90.00% 96.42% 88.00%
35% 25% 19% 10% 4% 5%
140 19 35 80 140 130
9.7% 11.0% 10.0% 11.2% 10.8% 5.7%
14.5% 9.7% 8.8% 23.0% 32.5% 5.3%
16 34 75 131
$10.00 $21.00 $3.00 $1.00 $5.00 $21.00 $1.00

$0.80 $0.40 $0.15 $0.20 $0.12 $0.10

$0.83 $0.80 $0.40 $0.15 $0.20 $0.12 $0.10

$9.17 $20.20 $2.60 $0.85 $4.80 $20.88 $0.90
9.05% 3.96% 15.38% 17.65% 4.17% 0.57% 11.11%
10.4 12.2 7.2 7.2 16.6 24.3 7.6
94.39% 48.18% 110.11% 126.30% 69.13% 13.98% 84.49%

NA 20-Apr-15 17-Mar-15 3-Feb-15 25-Apr-15 20-Apr-15 NA

86.480% 60.00% 72.00% 77.00% 90.00% 96.42% 88.00%

30% 5% 30% 30% 30% 30% 55%
$2.75 $1.01 $0.78 $0.26 $1.44 $6.26 $0.50
30% 79% 51% 59% 14% 2% 20%
41.7% 9.5% 17.4% 37.9% 18.0% -90.5% 28.6%
$600,000 $600,000 $600,000 $600,000 $600,000 $600,000 $600,000
$250,011 $57,000 $104,400 $227,400 $108,000 -$542,736 $171,600
27264 2822 40154 267529 22500 -25993 190667
273 28 402 2675 225 -260 1907

70 200 500 225 300 10

7000 20000 50000 22500 30000 1000
$13,280.00 $5,600 $8,000 $7,500 $4,500 $3,600 $100
$152,640 $141,400 $52,000 $42,500 $108,000 $626,400 $900
CLOSED CLOSED CLOSED EXPIRED EXPIRED EXPIRED

$0.20 $0.03 $0.03

$0 $1,400 $600 $1,500 $0 $0 $0
$4,200 $8,600 $9,000 $4,500 $3,600 $100

Jan 27 2015
As IBM
moved down
to 150 took
off 30 of 70 Exit
at -.46 but
left 40 to
expire. Avg
net debit was
.20 across 70

0.00% 2.97% 16.54% 21.18% 4.17% 0.57% 11.11%

0.00% 36.14% 118.36% 151.56% 69.13% 13.98% 84.49%
 0.31

0.7433808554

1042.90% 18.20% 9.60% 12.30% -94.30% 1490.90% -42.30%

 ROP ROP ROP ROP BPS ROP ROP

4-Feb-15 4-Feb-15 4-Feb-15 4-Feb-15 19-Feb-15 4-Feb-15 4-Mar-15

AGCO AHH CCJ CF RUT ZINC IBM
44.00 10.00 15.00 55.00 1190.00 14.00 161.00

2016 JAN MAY 2017 JAN 2017 JAN MAR DEC APR
320 175 721 721 27 306 43
41.00 9.00 14.00 48.00 1130.00 14.00 155.00
1 0 0 1 34 0 5
40 9 14 47 1096 14 150
72.00% 72.00% 87.00% 93.00% 92.00% 82.00% 72.00%
28% 28% 13% 7% 8% 18% 25%
40 10 10 33 1110 12.5 155
9.1% 0.0% 33.3% 40.0% 6.7% 10.7% 3.7%
1.3% 0.0% 2.1% 2.5% 11.2% 1.6% 3.9%
1100
$6.00 $1.50 $1.50 $4.95 $10.00 $12.50 $155.00

$3.88 $0.94 $1.09 $1.50 $0.36 $1.21 $1.53

$3.88 $0.94 $1.09 $1.50 $0.36 $1.21 $1.53

$2.12 $0.56 $0.41 $3.45 $9.64 $11.29 $22.00
183.02% 167.86% 265.85% 43.48% 3.73% 10.72% 6.95%
1.1 2.1 0.5 0.5 13.5 1.2 8.5
208.76% 350.10% 134.59% 22.01% 50.48% 12.78% 59.03%

NA NA NA NA NA NA 20-Apr-15

72.00% 72.00% 87.00% 93.00% 92.00% 82.00% 72.00%

30% 50% 50% 50% 30% 50% 25%
$1.16 $0.47 $0.55 $0.75 $2.89 $0.61 $5.50
333% 200% 200% 200% 12% 200% 28%
63.6% 58.0% 80.5% 89.5% 27.7% 73.0% -28.7%
$600,000 $600,000 $600,000 $600,000 $600,000 $600,000 $600,000
$381,600 $348,000 $483,000 $537,000 $166,400 $438,000 -$171,922
180000 621429 1178049 155652 17261 38795 -7815
1800 6214 11780 1557 173 388 -78

14 210 21 50 200 630 40

1400 21000 2100 5000 20000 63000 4000
$5,432 $19,740 $2,289 $7,500 $7,200 $76,230 $6,120
$2,968 $11,760 $861 $17,250 $192,800 $711,270 $88,000
CLOSED EXPIRED EXPIRED EXPIRED EXPIRED

-$0.60
$840 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0
$4,592 $19,740 $2,289 $7,500 $7,200 $76,230 $6,120

Aug 25th.
Zinc down to
$7. Closed
Expired with this ROP and
the stock at rolled the
$10.40. Nice loss to the
ROP. MAR 12.5
ROP at a cost
of $363,510

154.72% 167.86% 265.85% 43.48% 3.73% 10.72% 6.95%

176.47% 350.10% 134.59% 22.01% 50.48% 12.78% 59.03%
1.345205479
22%

175.20% 25.50% 19.10% 229.44%

11
20.86%
 BCS (Bear Call
ROC BPS to ROP ROP BPS IRON CONDOR
Spread)
4-Mar-15 4-Mar-15 4-Mar-15 22-Mar-15 24-Mar-15 24-Mar-15
IBM IBM IBM RUT RUT RUT
161.00 161.00 161.00 1263.00 1263.00 1263.00

APR 2016 JAN 2016 JAN APR APR APR

43 314 314 23 23 23
165.00 155.00 155.00 1211.00 1267.00
5 5 5 36 38
170 150 150 1175 1305
84.00% 84.00% 70.00% 94.00% 94.00% 88.4%
17% 28% 25% 7% 9%
170 120 140 1160 1320
5.6% 25.5% 13.0% 8.2% 4.5%
5.9% 3.6% 1.9% 16.0% 8.8%
0 1150 1330
$120.00 $140.00 $10.00 $10.00 $10.00

$0.80 $1.65 $4.95 $0.35 $0.27

$0.80 $1.65 $4.95 $0.35 $0.27 $0.62

$24.00 $18.12 $25.00 $9.65 $9.73 $9.38
9.11% 19.80% 3.63% 2.77% 6.61%
8.5 1.2 1.2 15.9 15.9 15.9
10.58% 23.02% 57.56% 44.04% 104.89%

20-Apr-15 20-Apr-15 20-Apr-15 NA NA NA

84.00% 84.00% 70.00% 94.00% 94.00% 88.360%

25% 25% 25% 30% 30% 30%
$6.00 $4.53 $6.25 $2.90 $2.92 $2.81
13% 36% 79% 12% 9% 22%
-36.0% 40.1% 32.1% 44.4% 29.1% 35.5%
$600,000 $600,000 $600,000 $600,000 $600,000 $600,000
-$216,000 $240,436 $192,727 $266,229 $174,800 $213,177
-9000 13269 7709 27588 17965 22727
-90 133 77 276 180 227

40 20 20 120 120
4000 2000 2000 12000 12000
 $3,200 $3,300 $9,900 $4,200 $3,240 $7,440.00
$96,000 $36,240 $50,000 $115,800 $116,760 $116,280.00
EXPIRED CLOSED CLOSED

-$0.09
$0 $0 $0 $0 $1,080
$3,200 $3,300 $9,900 $4,200 $2,160

Sep 9,
converted
BPS to a ROP
by selling the Exited BCS with
115 long put a nice profit as
for $1.29. the RUT ran up
Added that toward the
to the short call
original NC of
.36 for a total
NC of 1.65

3.33% 9.11% 19.80% 3.63% 1.85%

28.29% 10.58% 23.02% 57.56% 29.36%
DISCRETIONARY TRADING RULES (This is not investing )
Underlaying Principle : Buy short term weakness in the middle of sustained strength. Use Macro portfolio as the universe for th
1) Do NOT trade to deploy capital.
2) Always have hedged/short component in a trade unit if trading at the supposed market tops.
3) Position size - Just right down first what you are willing to loose in dollar terms.
4) Some indicators : Slope of MA, Guppy, RSI (Month-week-day), Golden cross, 50 crossover, real motion
6) Plan to incrementaly buy and incrementally sell.
7) If there is no strong trend or it’s a ETF, then sell at bounce (Stop-sell). Re-enter.
8) For strong trending stocks or ETFs, move the trailing stock.
9) Use Macro portfolio as buy n hold for the quarter.
rtfolio as the universe for this.
 Short
Position Entry term
Entry Date Setup Type Setup Details Return Driver Ticker
Size Price Stop
Loss

Gold Miners bullish

Older GDXJ 31.33 30.52
trade

Softness in weak- Safe Haven,

2/11/2019 Bullish Macro Asset Falling Interest GLD 123.73 122.41
Allocation + Uptrend rates

Best Currency
Short Term General
2/11/2019 with Fed hike FXY 86.48 86.04
Uptrend + Macro
stop

Short Uranium
Short Term General Supplies that
2/11/2019 URA 12.8 12.5
Uptrend + Pullback takes long lead
times

Softness in weak- Fed stops

2/11/2019 Bullish Macro Asset Hikes, Safe IEF 104.47 103.38
Allocation + Uptrend Haven

Equity asset
Equity asset
allocation ,
2/12/2019 allocation , General THD 90.26 89.16
General
Uptrend
Uptrend

Benefitiary of trade Trade war

2/12/2019 war, Equity asset deadline EIDO 26.41 26.06
allocation extension

Equity asset
Equity asset
allocation ,
2/12/2019 allocation , Highest EWZ 43.11 41.68
Highest
Momentum
Momentum
 Most terrible
Long Term Macro
2/12/2019 currency in the EUO 25.13 24.51
Thesis
world

Long term
Macro thesis , EU
short but short
2/12/2019 financials are EUFN 17.92 19.2
timed due to
troubled
Options play.

In clear
downtrend.
Short sale - Spain
Low risk entry
2/18/2019 and Europe macro FEZ 35.17 36.5
considering A
troubles
bump in
downtrend

Market due for

Anti Beta correction.
Fund,excellent factor Holding the BTAL 21.31 20.98
exposure trend trendline with a
rising market.

China index change,

Strong trend
liquidity injection and
and CHIX
demographic help
momentum.
story.
2/24/2019
China
momentum
Chain tech breakout,
CQQQ
companies betting on
china internet
2/25/2019 companies. 48.87 47.2

Cash secured
Gold as selector put good
allocation but at a prices may pull GLD
limited price back with Rally
in risk assets.
2/25/2019 124
Macro sector Interest rate
XLU
2/25/2019 demand sensitivity 56.84 56.5

Macro, momentum, Interest rate

VNQ
REIT sensitivity
2/25/2019 84.7 83.85

Good
momentum,
Macro Home builders
beating the NVR 2693 2577
preference
home builder
sector
2/25/2019
 Pure
Pure technicals ALSN 50.57 50.07
2/25/2019 technicals
Technicals +
Technicals +
Valuation +
Valuation + Hedge FOXA
Hedge fund
fund ownership
2/25/2019 ownership 51.02 49.78
Technicals +
Technicals + macro STOR
2/26/2019 macro 32.48 32.4
Target Risk/Reward Entry Notes Security Behavior Stock type

Gold mining stocks are

Good risk reward breaking out, but they are
33.66 0.347639485 Trend
combination. volatile and provide good entry
and exit points.

GLD has its up and down day

Asset allocation decesion
but feels very robust and
125 1.0393700787 to benefit from US equity Trend
secure, I am at peace owning
pull back.
this and it wont be volatile.

Exellent risk reward ratio

based on recent high
point.This was counter
88.8 0.1896551724 Not a correct trade to enter. Choppy
trend trade, should not
have entered due to
fundamentals.

Good risk reward based off

trend
Correct assessment of price
13.46 0.4545454545 channel.Fundamentals not Trend
going down by chart analysis
reason to enter this short
term trade, stops are wide.

IEF has its up and down day

Asset allocation decesion
but feels very robust and
105.75 0.8515625 to benefit from US equity Trend
secure, I am at peace owning
pull back.
this and it wont be volatile.
Oversold RSI,
Miscalculated RR but is
reasonable. Broken trend
91.6 0.8208955224 but cups at the bottom is Mixed
good trend that has held in
past. Moved the stop on
jump.
Buying sharp pulback on
general uptrend, mentally Multiple mistakes made -
tough trade but excellent "Pyramid" with large position
28.9 0.140562249 Trend
RR. Incorrectly entered as size on a bounce but failed to
as its on broken channel, move stop.
sell point was incorrect.

Reasonably wide stop has

Buying pulback-reveral on
been put.Hope that it will
47 0.3676092545 general uptrend. Good Trend
rebound but that is not a
feeling to trade
strategy is it?
 Plan to move stop at 2%
This is double increase. The security is no
26.58 0.4275862069 short.Reasonably good longer "trending" - this makes Trend
RR, Good feeling to trade it a bad vehicle to be in even if
euro does go up.
50% Entered as debit put
Profit verticle spread. Not many
target to #VALUE! ways to short EU Trend
close the financials. Missed using
spread. Kelly Criterion, next time.

Immediately after entry

ECB announced dovish
Close the trade with
pivot which could result in Trend
fundamental reason
Euro Stoxx moving higher
hence trade closed

Very good feeling well

23 0.1952662722 resserched factor exposure Trend
trend

1.0245398773 Great Risk and reward.

50.5

Real time trade, the short

put was not thought
through

Chased the market and

0.2931034483
58 first hour trading.
Chased the market plus
first hour trading. Wrong
0.1349206349 instrument selected,
weekly options not
91 available.

Excellent risk reward ratio.

Did not calculate the stop
3041 0.3333333333 loss percent, which is
greater than expected,
chased the stock.
52.4 0.2732240437

0.4161073826
54
0.1111111111
33.2
 Exit
Exit Date P&L Exit Notes Covered Call PL %
Price

Planned exit at
Spike. Trade was
2/22/2019 33.5 -2.17
perfect, as
planned.

Y 6.926268752

Plan to exit at
2/14/2019 124.5 -0.77
Spikes.

Y- Weekly 0.6223227996

Exited at the stop

2/12/2019 86.03 0.45 in a discipled
way.

N -0.5203515264

Plan to exit on
trend channel -
2/13/2019 12.69 0.11
spotted broken
trend and exited.
N -0.859375

Context

N
Stop was moved
up on bounce,
2/13/2019 90.3 -0.04 N
turned out to be
good move.
0.0443164192

Failed to move
stop on bounce.
Wait before
2/13/2019 26.25 0.16 Y
putting covered
call to stop
distraction.
-0.6058311246
Exited with the
2/14/2019 44 -0.89 assigned Y
covered call
2.0644861981
 Exit for
200 USD
2/25/2019 18.32 fundamental
Loss
news announced

Exit for
2/22/2019 35.82 -0.65 fundamental
news announced
Date (Record Monthly) Portfolio Value 1-Month Return Inception

1/31/2018 $98,000 -2.04% -2.00%

 Emotional
Self Evaluation (A-F)
Assessment
Took some losses
due to over trading. I
used trading as a
C
way to distract
myself from some
problems at work