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APPLICATIONS

Introductory Statistics: A Problem-Solving Approach,

2e presents a wide variety of applications from diverse

disciplines. The following li st indicates the Example

and Exerci se numb ers related to different field s. Note that some items ap p ea r in more th an one c at ego r y.

EXAMPLES BY APPLICATION

Biology and Environmental Science

1.11 , 2.7, 3.2, 3.3, 3.8, 3.9, 3 .1 7, 5. 1, 5.2, 6.8, 7.4, 8.5, 9 .8, 9.15 , 9.19 , 10 .9, 10.16 , 11. 2, 11.6, 12.9, 13.1, 14 .5

Business and Management

3.5, 4.7, 4.31 , 4 .3 6, 4.39, 5 .2, 7.3, 7 .8 , 7.9, 7. 11 , 9.16 , 9.18, 11.3 , 14. 7, 14.8, 14.9

Demographics and Population Statistics

1. 2, 4.1 , 4 .31, 4. 32, 7. 1, 9.14, 12.7,

12.8

Economics and Finance

4.14 , 10 . 15,

12. 14, 14 . 1, 14 .6, 14 .8, 14 . 10

Education and Child Development

2 .3, 3.15, 4.6, 5. 11 , 6.7, 7.6

Fuel Consumption and Cars

2.13, 3. 11 , 4.20, 4.38, 8.2, 8. 11 , 10 . 10 , 12. 11 , 12 .1 3

Manufacturing and Product Development

1.1 2, 2 .10 , 2. 11 , 4.26 , 5 .2, 5.2 0 , 6.2 , 6.11 , 8.7, 8. 13, 9.3, 9.4, 9.6 , 10.3, 10.5, 12.5

Marketing and Consumer Behavior

1.1 2, 2.2, 2.3, 2.8, 3. 16, 4.4, 4.8 , 4 . 13, 4. 15, 4.17 , 4.18, 4.19 , 4.23, 4.30 , 4.34, 4.35, 5.5, 5 .14 , 5 .1 5, 5.18, 7. 1,

7.

Medicine and Clinical Studies

10 , 8. 11 , 9.14 , 10 . 13 , 11.4

1. 3,

5.7,

1. 5, 1. 8, 2 .9 , 3.6, 3. 10 , 3. 14 , 3. 19 , 4.33, 4.37, 5 .2, 5. 16 , 6.9, 6 . 10, 9. 1, 9.5 , 9.7, 9 .9, 9.17 , 10.4, 10 .8,

12.3, 12.4, 13.3, 14.4

Physical Sciences

1.4 , 5.6, 8.10, 10 .9, 11. 5

Psychology and Human Behavior

1. 5, 1.6 , 1. 8, 1.9 , 2.3, 3.6, 4.6, 7.2, 8 .8, 9 . 11 , 9.18, 10 . 1, 10.8, 10.11 , 13.2, 14 .8

Public Health and Nutrition

2. 13, 2 .14 , 4.37 , 5 .1 , 5.7, 5. 10 , 6.7, 8.1 , 8 .3, 8.4, 10 .2,

12.2, 12.7, 12.8, 12 .1 2,

10.6 , 10 . 11 , 10 . 15, 11.1 , 11. 2, 13.3, 14 .2, 14.3, 14.4

Public Policy and Political Science

1.10, 3.7, 4.2 , 4.3, 4.16, 4.25, 5.4, 5. 17, 6.3 , 7. 1, 8. 1, 9.13, 9.15

Sports and Leisure

1. 7, 2. 1, 3.2,

3.3, 3.12, 3. 18, 3 .20 , 4.10 , 4.18 , 4.2 1,

4 .22, 4.24 , 5.8, 5. 12, 5. 19 , 6.1 , 9.10, 10 .7, 12. 1,

12. 10

Technology and the Internet

4.9, 4.19 , 8.8, 9.17, 10.1

Travel and Transportation

1.1 , 2.3, 2.4, 2.5, 2.6, 2.8, 2. 12, 3.3, 3.7, 3. 13 , 3. 17,

3.18, 3.20, 4.2 , 4.3, 4.7 , 4 .27, 4 .3 8, 5.9 , 6.1 , 6.6, 7. 1, 7.7, 8.9, 9.2, 9 .12, 10 . 12 , 12.6, 13.4

EXERCISES BY APPLICATION

Biology and Environmental Science

0.7, 0.9, 1.30, 1.36, 1.41 , 1.42, 1.43, 2.7, 2.8, 2.9, 2. 12 , 2 .1 4, 2.22, 2.4 0 , 2.6 0 , 2.63, 2 .65, 2.67, 2.86, 2.92, 2.94, 2.109, 3. 14, 3. 19, 3.2 1, 3 .3 1, 3.54, 3 .55, 3.59, 3.65, 3.84, 3.8 6, 3.112, 3. 134 , 4.123, 4. 130,

4. 146, 4.15 1, 4. 164, 4. 177, 5.9, 5. 12, 5. 15,

6.47 , 6.53, 6.55 , 6.58 , 6.82 , 6.109, 7. 16 , 7.42, 7.45,

7.46, 7.48, 7.8 0 , 7.9 1, 7. 10 5, 8. 12, 8. 13, 8. 14, 8.37,

8.44 , 8.69 , 8.8 6, 8.149, 8. 157, 8. 173, 8. 177, 9.14 ,

9.15 , 9.73, 9.79 , 9.92 , 9.121, 9 .142, 9.144 , 9 .157,

9 .159 , 9.229 , 9.236 , 9.249, 9.254, 10.47, 10 .57,

5.16, 5.39 ,

10. 72,

10.74, 10. 82, 10.92, 10 . 137, 10. 154, 10. 155, 10 . 159,

10.161 , 10.168, 10.169, 11. 2 1, 11. 25, 11. 26,

11. 53, 11. 55, 11.60, 11.62, 11. 77, 11.81 , 11.9 8,

11.100 , 12. 18 , 12.22, 12.28, 12.4 9, 12 .5 6, 12.57'

12 . 146, 12. 14 7,

12 .60, 12.78, 12 .81

12. 149 , 12. 153, 12. 156, 12. 159, 12. 165, 13. 14, 13.25,

13. 70, 14 .19, 14. 2 1, 14.38, 14.63, 14. 76, 14. 114 ,

14 . 11 5,

14.145, 14 . 153

11. 52,

, 12. 10 7,

12. 11 5,

14.116 , 14 . 118 , 14.1 23, 14 . 124, 14 . 128,

INTRODUCTORY

STATISTICS

Omar Harran/Moment/Getty Images SECOND EDITION Ap Stephen Kokoska Bloomsburg University • w. H. FREEMAN •

Omar Harran/Moment/Getty Images

SECOND EDITION Ap
SECOND EDITION
Ap

Stephen Kokoska

Bloomsburg University

w. H. FREEMAN

&COMPANY

l

A Macmillan Education Imprint

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Marketing Manager:

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Editorial Assistant: Victoria Garvey Marketing Assistant: Bailey James Photo Editor: Robin Fadool Cover Designer: Vicki Tomaselli Text Designer: Jerry Wilke Managing Editor: Lisa Kinne Senior Project Manager: Dennis Free, Aptara 9 , Inc. Illustrations and Composition: Aptara 9 , Inc. Production Coordinator: Julia DeRosa Printing and Binding: QuadGraphics Cover credit: Omar Harran/Moment/Getty Images

Li brary of Preassigned Control N umber· 2014950583

Stu dent

ISBN-13: 978-1-4641- 1169-3 IS BN- I0: 1-464 1- 11 69-3

Editio n Ha rdcover (packaged wi th EE SEE, Crunch It! access card):

Student Edi tt on Loose-leaf (packaged wuh EESEE1Crunchll ! access card):

ISBN- 13: 978- 1-464 1-5752-3 ISBN-10: l-46-H -5752-9

In structor Complim entary Copy:

ISBN- 13: 978-1-4641-7986-0 ISBN- I0: 1-464 1-7986-7

c 2015, 20 1 1 by W. 11. F r eema n and Com p any All rights reserved

Printed in the Umted States of America

First printing

W. H. F reeman and Com p any

41 Madison Avenue New York. NY 100 10

I loundmi ll s. Basings toke RG2 I 6XS. England

www.whfrecmun.com

Chapter 0 Why Study Statistics 1 An Introduction to Statistics and Statistical Inference 9 Tables

Chapter 0

Why Study Statistics

1

An Introduction to Statistics and Statistical Inference 9

An Introduction to Statistics and Statistical Inference

9

Tables and Graphs for Summarizing Data 27

Tables and Graphs for Summarizing Data

27

Chapter 3

Numerical Summary Measures

73

Chapter 4

Probability

123

Random Variables and Discrete Probability Distributions 187

Random Variables and Discrete Probability Distributions

187

Continuous Probability Distributions 243

Continuous Probability Distributions

243

Sampling Distributions 295

Sampling Distributions

295

Confidence Intervals Based on a Single Sample 333

Confidence Intervals Based on a Single Sample

333

Hypothesis Tests Based on a Single Sample 391

Hypothesis Tests Based on a Single Sample

391

Chapter 10

Confidence Intervals and Hypothesis Tests Based on Two Samples or Treatments

461

Chapter 11

The Analysis of Variance

531

Chapter 12

Correlation and Linear Regression

573

Chapter 13

Categorical Data and Frequency Tables

651

Chapter 14

Nonparametric Statistics

681

Optional Sections (avai lable online at www.whfreeman.com/introstats2e and

on LaunchPad):

Section 6.5

The Normal Approximation to the Binomial Distribution

Section 12.6

The Polynomial and Qualitative Predictor Models

Section 12.7

Model Selection Procedures

v

Chapter 0

Why Study Statistics

The Statistical Inference Procedure Problem Solving

With a Little Ilelp from Technology

Chapter 1

An

Introduction to Statistics and

Statistical Inference

1.1 Statistics Today

1.2 Populations, Samples. Probability, and Statistics

1.3 Experiments and Random Samples

Chapter 2

Tables and Graphs for Summarizing Data

1

2

3

3

9

10

11

19

27

2.1 Types of Data

28

2.2 Bar Charts and Pie Charts

33

2.3 Stem-and-Leaf Plots

45

2.4 Frequency Distributions and Histograms

53

Chapter 3

Numerical Summary Measures

73

3.1 of Central Tendency

Measures

74

3.2 of Variability

Measures

86

3.3 The Empirical Rule

and Measures

of Relative Standing

98

3.4 Five-Number

Summary and Box Plots

109

Chai:>ter 4

Probability

123

Chapter 6

Continuous Probability Distributions

243

6.1

Probability Distributions for a Continuous Random Variable

244

6.2

The Normal Distribution 256

6.3

Checking the Normality Assumption

272

6.4

The Exponential Distribution 282

Chapter 7

Sampling Distributions

295

7. 1

Statistics, Parameters. and Sampling

Distributions

296

7.2

The Sampling Distribution of the

Sample Mean and the Central Limit Theorem

304

7.3

The Distribution of the Sample

Proportion

318

Chapter 8

Confidence Intervals Based on a Single Sample

333

8.1

Point Estimation

334

8.2

A Confidence Interval for a Population

8.3

Mean When CT Is Known 339 A Confidence Interval for a Population Mean When CT Is Unknown 353

8.4

A Large-Sample Confidence Interval for a Population Proportion

365

8.5

A Confidence Interval for a Population Variance or Standard Deviation

374

4.1 Experiments, Sample Spaces, and Events

124

4.2 An Introduction to Probability

134

4.3 Counting Techniques

147

4.4 Conditional Probability

158

4.5 Independence

168

Chapter 9

Hypothesis Tests Based on a Single Sample

The Parts of a Ilypothesis Test and Choosing the Alternative Ilypothesis Ilypothesis Test Errors

9.3 Hypothesis Tests Concerning a Population

9.1

9.2

Chapter 5

Random Variables and Discrete

Probability Distributions 187 Mean When CT Is Known

5.1 Random Variables

188

9.4

p Values

5.2 Probability Distributions for Discrete Random Variables

193

9.5

Hypothesis Tests Mean When u Is

Concerning a Population UnknO\\ n

5.3 Mean. Variance. and Standard Deviation

9.6

Large-Sample Ilypothesis Tests Concerning

for a Discrete

Random Variable

202

a Population Proportion

5.4 The Binomial

Distribution

211

9.7

Hypothesis Tests Concerning a Population

5.5 Other Discrete Distributions

224

Variance or Standard Deviation

391

392

398

404

417

426

438

447

vi

CONTENTS

Vii

Chapter 10 Confidence Intervals and Hypothesis Tests Based on

Notes and Data Sources

N-1

Two Samples or Treatments

461

Tables Appendix

T-1

L0.1

Comparing Two Population Means Using Independent Samples When

Population Vari ances Are Known

463

10.2 Comparing Two Population Means Using Independent Samples from Normal Populations

474

10.3 Paired Data

490

10.4 Comparing Two Population Proportions Using Large Samp les

501

10.5 Comparing Two Population

Varia nces

or Standard Deviations 5 13

Chapter 11

The Analysis of Variance

11.1 One-Way ANOVA

11.2 Isolating Differences

11.3 Two-Way ANOVA

Chapter 12 Correlation and Linear Regression

531

532

544

555

573

12.1 Simple Linear Regression 574

12.2 Hypothesis Tests and Correlation

59 1

12.3 Inferences Concerning the Mean Value

and an Observed Value of Y for x = x*

605

12.4 Regression Diagnostics 6 14

624

12.5 Multiple Linear Regression

Chapter 13

Categorical Data and Frequency Tables

651

13.1 Univariate Categorical Data. Goodness-of-Fit Tests 652

13.2 Bivariate Categorical Data, Tests fo r Homogeneity and Jndependence 662

Chapter 14

Nonparametric Statistics

681

14.1 The Sign Test

682

14.2 The

Signed-Rank Test

690

14.3 The Rank-Sum Test

698

14.4 The

Kruskal-Wallis Test

706

14.5 The

Runs Test

7 12

Table I

Binomial Distribution Cumulative

 

Probabi Ii ties

T-2

Table II

Poisson Distribution Cumu lative

Probabilities

T-4

Table Ill

Standard Normal Distribution

Cumulative Probabilities

T-7

Table

IV

Standard ized Norma l Scores

T-9

Table V

Cri tical Values

for the

1

Di stri bution

T- 10

Table

VI

Crit ical Values

fo r

the Chi-Square

 

Distribution

T- 11

Table VII

Critical Values for the

F Distribution

T-13

Table VIII

Critical Values for the Studentized

Range Distribution

T-16

Table

IX

Critica l Val ues fo r the

Wilcoxon

 

Signed-Rank Statistic

 

T-19

Table

X

C ri tica l Val ues for the

Wilcoxon

 

Rank-Sum Statistic

 

T-22

Table

XI C ri tica l Values for the

Runs Test

T-25

Table XII

Greek Alphabet

T-27

Answers to Odd-Numbered Exercises

A-1

Index

1-1

Optional Sections

(available online at www.whfreeman.com/ introstats2e and on LaunchPad ):

Section 6.5

The Normal Approximation to the Binomial Distribution

Section 12.6

The Polynomial and Qual itative Predictor Models

Section 12.7

Model Selection Procedures

S tudents frequent ly ask me why they need to take an introductory statistics course. My answer is simple. In almost every occupation and in ordinary daily life, you will have

to make data-driven decisions, inferences, as we ll as assess risk. In addition, you must be able to translate complex problems into manageable pieces, recognize patterns, and most

important, solve problems. This text helps students develop the fundamental lifelong tool

of so lving problems and interpreting solutions in real-world

One of my goals was to make this problem-solving approach accessible and easy to

beauty of statistics

and the connections to so many other disciplines. However, it is even more important for students Lo be able Lo apply problem-solving skills to a wide range of academic and career pursuits, including business. science and technology, and education.

!11troducto1y Statistics: A Problem-Solving Approach. Second Edition, presents long-

term, universal skills for students taking a one- or two-semester introductory-level statistics course. Examples include guided, explanatory Solution Trails that emphasize problem-solving techniques. Example solutions are presented in a numbered, step-by- step format. The generous collection and variety of exercises provide ample opportunity for practice and review. Concepts, examples, and exercises are presented from a practical. realistic perspective. Real and rea listic data sets are current and relevant. The text uses mathematically correct notation and symbols and precise definitions to illustrate statisti- cal procedures and proper communication.

the steps in basic statistical ar-

apply in many situations. T certainly want students to appreciate the

terms.

This text is designed to help students fu ll y understand

guments, emphasizing the importance of assumptions in order to follow valid arguments or identify inaccurate conclusions. Most important, students will understand the process of statistical inference. A four-step process (Claim, Experiment, Likelihood, Conclusion) is used throughout the text to present the smaller pieces of introductory statistics on which the larger, essential statistical inference puzzle is built.

NEW TO THIS EDITION

In this thoroughly updated new edition, Steve Kokoska again combines a classic ap- proach to teaching statistics with contemporary examples, pedagogical features, and use of technology. He blends solid mathematics with lucid, often humorous, writing and a distinctive stepped "Solution Trail" problem-solving approach, which helps students understand the processes behind basic statistical arguments. statistical inference. and data-based decision making.

LaunchPad

/11troducto1y Statistics is accompanied by its own dedicated version of W. H. Freeman's breakthrough online course space. which offers the following:

• Pre-built Units for each chapter, curated by experienced educators, with media for each chapter organized and ready to assign or customize to suit the course.

• All online resources for the text in one location, including an interactive e-Book, LearningCurve adaptive quizzing, Try It Now exercises, StatTutors, video technology manuals, statistical applets, Crunchlt! and JMP statistical software, EESEE case stud- ies, and statistical videos.

• Intuitive and useful analytics, with a Gradebook that allows instructors to see how the class is progressing. for individua l students and as a whole.

• A streamlined and intuitive interface that lets instructors build an entire course in minutes.

ix

X

PREFACE

New Solution Trail Exercises

Ko koska's unique '·So lution Trai l" fra mewo rk a ppea rs in the tex t margi ns a longs ide se-

by rev iewers, serves as a un ique guide for moving to the so lutio n steps wi thin the ex-

a mple. To allow s tudents to put this guidance to use, exercise sets now Feature q uestions

that ask students to c reate th e ir own

lecte d ex ampl es. approaching and

Thi s fea ture, hi g hl y pra ised s olvi ng the problems before

so luti on tra ils.

New Concept Check Exercises

Stre ngthening the boo k's co nceptua l coverage, these exercises open eac h exercise set wi th

tru e/ fal se, fill-in-the -bl ank, and s ho rt-answe r questions

unde rsta nding of the reading and the essenti a l statistical ideas.

that he lp stude nts solid ify thei r

New Chapter 0

T his introdu ctory chapte r eases stud e nts into

the co urse a nd Kokos ka 's a pp roach. It in-

c

ludes abo ut

a

dozen exerc ises th at instructors ca n ass ign for the first day o f c lass, hel p ing

s

tud ents se ttl e

into the co urse mo re eas il y.

Revised Chapter Openers that include "Looking Forward/ Looking Back"

" Looking Back"

the key co ncepts to be covered w ithin the c ha pter.

recaps key concepts learned in prior c hapters. "Looking Forward" lists

New "Last Step" Exercises Based on Opening Scenarios

The c ha pte r-ope ning qu es tio n is p rese nted agai n as an exe rc ise a t the e nd of the chapter, to close the concept and appli ca ti on loop, as a last step. fn add it ion , th is gives instructors

the option o f making the scenarios

assign able a nd assessable.

Try It Now References

to a specific re la te d exercise in the end-of-c hapter se t.

With this, students can test thei r understanding of the exam p le's concepts and tec hn iques

Mos t exampl es include a refe re nce

imme di a te ly.

Approximately 40% New and Updated Exercises and Examples

Approx imatel y I 00 new exampl es and almost 800 new exercises are incl uded in this new edition.

More Statistical Technology Integration

In additi on to prese nting Excel, Mi ni tab, a nd T l o utput a nd instruct ion, th e new e d iti o n

W. H. Freeman 's a re ava ilab le free

web-based stat is ti ca l software, a nd J M P. (C runc hl t! a nd J MP packages of charge in Launch Pad.)

in co rp o r a t es sa mpl e o u tp u t sc r ee ns a nd g uid a n ce fo r b o

th C run c hit !,

FEATURES

Focus on Statistical Inference Th e ma in the me of this text is statisti cal i n fe re n ce a nd

dec is io n makin g throug h inte r pre ta ti o n of nume rical resu lts. T he process of stat is tical

in fe re nce is introdu ced in

four- s te p a pproach: C la im, Ex pe rim e nt, Like lihood an d Co nc lusio n.

si m ila r, carefu lly del ineated,

a va ri e ty of contex ts, a ll usi ng a

Can the Florida Everglades be saved?

Burmese pythons have invaded the Florida Everglades and now threaten the

wildlife indi genous to the

pet> and somehow a few animals slithered into Everglades National Park. The first python was found in the Everglades in 1979, and these snakes became an officially established species 1n 2000. 1 The Everglades has an Ideal climate for the pythons, and the large areas of grass allow the snakes plenty of places to hide. In January 2013, the Florida Fish and Wildlife Conservation Commission started the Python Challenge The purpose of the contest was to thin the python popu· lation. wh!Ch could be tens of thousands, and help save the natural wildlife in

area It 1s likely that people w ere keeping pythons as

the Everglades. There were 800 particlpanu, with prizes for the most pythons captured and for the longest. At the end of the competition, 68 Burmese pythons had been harvested Suppose a random sample of pythons captured during the Challenge was obtained The length (in feet) of each python IS given in the following table.

9.3

3 .5

5.2

83

4.6

111

10.5

3.7

2.B

5.9

7.4

14.2

13.6

8.3

7.5

5.2

6.4

12.0

10.7

4 .0

11 . 1

3.7

7 .0

12.2

52

8 . 1

4.2

6.1

6.3

13.2

3 .9

6.7

33

83

10.9

9.5

94

4.3

4.6

5.8

4 .1

5.2

4.7

5.B

6.4

3.8

7.1

4.6

7.5

6.0

The tabular and graphical techniques presented In thlS chapter will be used to describe the shape, center, and spread of th IS distribution of python lengths and to identify any outliers.

PREFACE

xi

Chapter Opener Each chapter begins with a unique, real-world question, providing an interesting introduction to new concepts and an application to begin discussion. The chapter question is presented again as an exercise at the end of the chapter, to close the concept and application loop, as a last step.

.,. Looking Back

• Recall that x, ;;. and s' are the point esttmates for the paramete" µ

• Remember how 10 construct and interpret confidence 1n1erval>

• Think aboot the concept of a sampling d1stnbut1on for a sta11sllc and the process of

p, and 1,.:

standardization

~ Looking Forward

• Use the available 1nformat1on 1n a sample to make a specific decision about a populauon

parameter.

• Understand the formal dec1s1on process and learn the four·part hypothesis test procedure

• Condua formal hypothesis tests concerning the populatton paramete rs µ. , p, and " 1

r

the populatton paramete rs µ. , p, and " 1 r KEYWOROS I!. thctr nny cvtdcncc·~
KEYWOROS I!. thctr nny cvtdcncc·~ Gn:nh 'f th.in t he 1ong-tcnn rn -an Standard devtauon
KEYWOROS
I!. thctr nny cvtdcncc·~
Gn:nh
'f
th.in t he 1ong-tcnn rn
-an
Standard devtauon I~50
Rrutdom sample
TRANSLATION
Conducl a onc:-'i1Jctl n1:ht-
ta1led 1cs1 ;lbout a popuhmon
m~µ
µ.,
SQ6U
"
-
1850
CONCEPTS
l IYPJlhc t~t conettn1n~a
11
populm1on mean "'hen '' Ill
J nown
VISION
IJ3C thr template! for a one--s1d~
n~ht--1.1:11led1cs1 nhom µ. The
undcrtymg populauon Ji~tnbt.11inn
L~ unkno\\.n. bm 111~ large nnd
tr '' Lnown lktcrmini: the
opprupnll tl~ aJtcrnat1\l!. hypo1.h1.!S1i;
Jnd the: corresponding rtJC\.'1u>n
fCSJOI\., lind the \'3 I U!.! o(the k-st
Mnt1.:t11c••ind dr.1\\. a condu:.1on.

Looking Back and Looking Forward At the beginning ofalmost every chapter, "Look- ing Back" includes reminders of specific concepts from ear lier chapters that will be used to develop new skills. " Looking Forward" offers the learning objectives for the chapter.

Solution Trail The Solution Trail is a structu red technique and visual aid for solving prob lems that appears in the text margins a longside selected examples. Solution Tra ils serve as guides for approaching and solving the problems before moving to the solution steps within the example. The four steps of the Solution Trail are

1. Find the keyll'ords .

2. Correctly translate these words into statistics.

3. Determine the applicable concepts.

4. Develop a vision for the solution.

The keywords lead to a translation into statistics. Then, the statistics question is solved with the use of specific concepts. Finally, the keywords, translation. and concepts are all used to develop a vision for the solu tion. This method encourages students to think con- ceptua lly before making calcu lati ons. Selected exercises ask students to write a formal Solution Trail.

Step-by-Step Solutions The solutions to selected examples are presented in logical, systematic steps. Each line in a calculation is explai ned so that the reader can clearly fol- low each step in a solution.

SOLUTION STEP 1 Find 1hc -;.1mpk mean 6.6 ' 7.0 8.2) ~(JZ.5) 6.5 STEP 2
SOLUTION
STEP 1
Find 1hc -;.1mpk mean
6.6
'
7.0
8.2)
~(JZ.5) 6.5
STEP
2
Use Equu11on 3.4 10 find 1he samp le \'a.nancc .
.<'
± [ 1<>2
6.5!' + 14.5
6.51
+ 16.6
6.5)·
+ (70 -
C>SI' +
182 - 6.Sl')
Uw~!d-"Cll
=±11-<u>' - 1-2.01' + w.1>' + w.sl' + <11>'J
-
.!.ro09 •
40 + u.o1 +
02s +
2.K9]
4
-
I 17.24)
-
1.81
4
STEP 3
Take 1hc pos111,1c squ11n: rool of the vunum
"1:
tu find the Mu ndard dc"mllon
\,l]T .
1.3454
A technology ~lu11tln b shown in Figure
3.17.

xii

PREFACE

The pomb do no1 l ie along a s traigh1 line. Each Intl is Hat
The pomb do no1 l ie along a s traigh1 line. Each Intl is Hat . "hich make.~ the
gra ph l ook S-sh a rcd Th i> suggcsL<. 1lln11 1tc under lying popul:111on is nol nonnal.
Figure 6.64 shows a technology soluuon.
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Figure 6 .63 Normal probab11i1y plot for 1he
chemotherapy dose da1a
Figure 6 .64 JMP normal probability
plot

Technology Solutions Whereve r possible, a tech- no logy so lutio n us ing C runc hll L J MP, the T I-84 , M initab, or Exce l is presented at the end of each text exampl e. T hi s a llows s tude nts lo fo cus on concepts a nd inte rpre ta tio n.

Th e de tails p rovided in th ese sec tio ns offer straightfo rward exp la-

na ti o ns of va 1io u s d e finiti o n s a nd co n cep ts. Th e i tem ized s pe c i fic s , i ncluding h ints, tips. a nd re minders. make it easier for the reader lo comprehend and learn important stat istica l ideas.

A Closer Look

and learn important stat istica l ideas. A Closer Look ACLOSERL ~ K "' In Example
ACLOSERL ~ K "' In Example 4.12, P<RJ = r1Rn 11J + rrRnn r1RnMJ t
ACLOSERL ~ K
"'
In Example 4.12,
P<RJ = r1Rn 11J + rrRnn
r1RnMJ t
P(Rn I/')
In ~t:ncra1. for nny 1
-.-0
events rt onJ 8.
P1t1nn·1
PUJ rr~nm
Thi' dt'<Y>lllJ"J~ilumt«.hmquc '"often nce<ll!tl in order In finJ Pf .of). The \erm dJu.gmm
tn Figun: 4.l'J 11lus1ra1c:. th1) cqwUJl)n
The e1en1s B nnd 8 make up 1hc enttrc >ample space. S - BU a·
s
Figure 4 .19
veonn d1i1Qram
'.>h0w-1n9 dt
'mpo! 11100 of the
event A
2 Suppo
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8 1 • B:. and B are mutuaJI) cxclu
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8 1 UB 1 UBJ • S for Bn) olherc\.ent J.
Pf.II P11na,1+P«~n11,1+P1.1n11.1

Theory

Symbols More

ad vanced mate rial, w hic h may be fo und in "A Closer Look" and regular ex-

appropria te,

is o ffset with a blue tri-

angle. This material can be skipped by the typical reade r. but provides mo re

to

vari ous

co mple te

position as

expla natio ns

topics.

How to Construct a Standard Box Plot

GiH!n a

-,cl

of n

obscrv::nioru.

.t 1 •.t 1

.c.

1. Find the five-number summnry x"u"· Q,. i. Q 3

.

.\ 1111 ,.

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utes: ten edge 31 Q 1 ngln edg.: 31Q 1 .11l1e heigh1 of1he bo' i> zrrele\ant l

3. Ora\\ a vcnic.11 lmc in the bo\ al lht: mecJinn.

4 . Dra" a hon1ontn l tme (whisker) from the ten edge of lhe lx" 10 the minimum \Jlue

(from Q 1 tox"'

ma.:\imum va l ue (fmm Q1 to.t,_,}

). Drawn hon7onl nl l mc (wh isker) fro m the right edge of 1he box to the

Definition/Formula Boxes Defi nition s a nd fo rmul as a re c learly marked and outlined w ith clean, crisp color-coded li nes .

How To Boxes Th is feature prov ides c lea r s tep s fo r co n -

o r pe rform ing

How To boxes are color-coded and easy to lo cale with in

each chapte r.

essential ca lculations.

structing bas ic g raphs

Definition The s11mplc (a rithmetic) mc n. denoted .t, oflhe 11 ob\Crvntion~ .'f 1 ,
Definition
The s11mplc (a rithmetic) mc n. denoted .t, oflhe 11 ob\Crvntion~ .'f 1 , t 1 ••
-
of the ob,,.,rvahons dtvtdcd by /1 Wnllcn mathcnmllcally.
• • 'l',. ii, the surn
\" _
I
~
t
.t,
-t
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·
·
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(3 . I J
II
II

PREFACE

xiii

Technology Corner This feature, at the end of most sec- tions, presents step-by-step instructions for using Crunch It!, the Tl-84, Minitab. and Excel to solve the examples presented in that section. Keystrokes. menu items, specific functions, and screen illustrations are presented.

ITechnology Corner

--- -· -12212' 6 16 23 21 Ml M Figure J .a Crunchftl dt'Senp1w \tot1\td
---
-12212'
6 16 23
21 Ml
M
Figure J .a Crunchftl dt'Senp1w \tot1\td
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Figure J . 1] Ei
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~
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Procedure: Compu1c 1ht: "1mplc mean, ~pie med ian_ a rnmmcd rnt:2n. and 1hc roodc.

Reconsider: l umr!C' J .!, ~olutaon. 11nJ m1~1 1on11

l umr!C' J .!, ~olutaon. 11nJ m1~1 1on11 Flgunt l .9 bi I Helpful Icons CUBETIME

Flgunt l .9

bi

I

Helpful Icons

CUBETIME

STATISTICAL APPLET

MEAN AND MEDIAN

~ STEPPED TUTORIAL

~ BOX PLOTS

VIDEO TECH MANUA LS

SAMPLING FROM

ADATA SET

Data Set icons indicate when a data set is available on line. and also the name of the data set.

Statistical Applet icons indicate statistical applets that are available in LaunchPad .

Stepped Tutorial icons indicate

detailed tutorials for specific calcu- lations.

Video Tech Manual icons indi- cate video instructions for solving certain kinds of problems using sta- tistical soflware.

Solution Trail icons within the exercise sets in- dicate the opportunity for students to create their own Solution Trails.

Grouped Exercises Kokoska offers a wide variety of interesting, engaging exercises on relevant topics. based on current data, at the end of each section and chapter. These problem pro' ide plenty of opportunity for practice, review, and application of concepts. Answers to odd-numbered section and chapter exercises are given at the back of the book. Exercises are grouped according to:

concept Chedc

   

2.73

True/False

A h"l"l!rtllll can be ui.cd to descnbc the

r

2.74

lrnpc.!. center, Jnt.I vJr1Ubili1y ofu t11.,1ribution.

Shon Answer

 

a. When " • dcn•ot} h1"ogmm appmpnatc"!

b.

In u dcn.,lly h1,1ogrnm. '"h•ll 1s the sum ofnrea~ of all

basic concepts presented in the section.

2.75

Fiii in the Blank

 

a. The! mo

1

c.:ommon unimodal t.ltstnbuuon tlii n

b .

A ummnJal J1.,lnhu11on 1\ \Cr1n.:al line of ~ymmctry

1fthcrc 1s 3

c

Ir a um!lll~I J1-.1nbu1u,ln" no1 'ymmc1nc. then u 1'

Practice Basic, introductory problems to familiar- ize students with the concepts and solu- tion methods.

Concept Check True/ False, Fill-in-the-Blank, and Short-

Answer exercises designed to reinforce the

Practice

2.n

Consider the data pl\·cn an the foll°"'"~ !able .

van

87

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86

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HR

t(5

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Con~truct a frequi:ni;y J1

1nbu11on

to

th~ dua

2.78 Cons1Jcr the t.lata ~1\cn on 1hc text \\.Cb ue . t'on,truc:t a

frequency d1stnbu11on 10 summanl'c thc:i.c d;.un

DCl71

xiv

PREFACE

I Applications 2 .86 Biology a nd Environme ntal Science ~ "calher Mulmn locu1cd alon~the
I Applications
2 .86 Biology a nd Environme ntal Science ~ "calher
Mulmn locu1cd alon~the Mumc coast m l\.cnncbunkpon
1.:ollcch d.ahl on tcmpcra1un:. wm<l 'peed wind chill. and
min The maximum \\1n<l 'ipccc.J (1n m1h: ' pe:r hour) for ~O
mndomly ~lcc1cJ 11mc:t in February 2013 o1rc !=l\cn on the
IC\I ~Cb"illCl"'
MAXWINO
a ("on
truct
a trequcl"IC) J1~tnbut1on '''
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b .
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t~ shape <>f th< J1,tnbu11l>n Arc 1h= any
ou1hc ,.·'

CHALLENGE

2 .107 Sports a nd U!isu r@

An ugn

,.

ur,

11,,,uf1J1nc rl'l'111u•

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frequency J1,tnbutton To con

1ruct

an np:1\C

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'-.,

mien.ti, cumulall\C

rcl.ill\e frequency)

• l ·c.mna.:l the pomb \\ nh line ~gmcnh

f ·~urc> 2.52 nnd 2.53 ;ho" J frcqucnc) d1smhu11on and the com:spdn!Jmg O~l\.C. n1c ob\Cr"\at1nn' an: 1.1g~'l.The value' to

be U\Cd m 1hc p1m nrc "'hown m hold 111 1hc mblc

 

(

umu111h e

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rT-l11he

C l as s Frequ e n c~ frtc1ue n c~ rre ,1 u en
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Frequ e n c~
frtc1ue n c~
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en c~

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10

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j

0.8

~ 06

i

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0.4

02

(12.0J 5 10 15 20 25 30 35 40 45
(12.0J
5
10
15
20
25
30
35
40
45

Ace

Fi gu re 2 . 5 3

R"' 1ltm9 <>gf\le

A random '3.ItlJ\IC of g:unc \Core~ lnlm Abb) Sl:1u1u·, C\C"mng

lWhn~ Jl"r ~l\.CRon lhc IC\l

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a. Cons1ruc1 a frequency cJ1111itnbuuon for 1h1:'-C darn

b. Dr'"' 1he re>uhmg ll!!" e for tli<.,., Jau

Applications

Rea listi c, appea lin g exercises to bui ld confide nce a nd prom ote ro uti ne under- stand ing. Many exerc ises a re based on interes ting a nd ca refu lly resea rc he d da ta.

Extended Applications 2.92 Biology and Environmental Science I'runs "1ch a:. C~rnC!rl and @.rD~ an: han
Extended Applications
2.92
Biology and Environmental Science
I'runs "1ch a:.
C~rnC!rl and @.rD~ an: han C.:"'llL-cJ and place
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c 1
,
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20.G-2CU
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24.0-24 5
II
24.5 25.ll
Ill
a. Complete 1he frcqu<i!C} d"1nbu1111n
b . C.:on•.itrUt,;I
a h1,l1.-.gram
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lU tlw~ frt•.-qucrn
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c. f '11ma1< the "eight .,. ,u<h that 'llT"o of ail full p<a<h fup
\\~1gh more than ~

Extended Applications

A ppli ed proble m s th at re quire extra care and tho ug ht.

Challenge

Additi o na l exe rc ises a nd tec hn ology proj ec ts tha t a llow stu dent s to di scove r m ore ad va nced co ncepts a nd co nn ectio ns .

Last Step

Each set of c hapte r exercises concludes with the "Last Step." This exercise is connected to the

c hapter-opening question and

the solu tio n invo lves the ski lls

a

nd concepts presented in the

c

hapter.

LAST STEP

2 .109 Cun 1he f londa bl:IJ!ladc> be •<ncd 1 In Janu:iry

201:1. 1he r>uml.o I ,,hand\\ 1fJhfc <""""'

u"n

Comm'"'"" .i.ancJ the l')thon ( halkn~c The P"'l""" <•flhc

contcSl \\J'S hJ thin 1hc: py1hon populalmn ~h1ch could Ix h:mi,

of1hllu.-anJ.,, and help '3\e the na1ural w1ldhfc m the [\\-r· gfndc< At 1hc end ul !he «•mpc1111on. 6K Dunne«~ 1hun' haJ

~'CO h~1nc:-itcJ ~Uf'lpll"«!a random ~mptc ot p~1hon~C•tplun!tl

during the t hailcngc ""' <'hla1ncd and !he length (In feel) of

cuch 1' g1\.c:n in the tulh.Y\1. mg table:

PYTHON

•u

74

II I

3.9

 

5.2

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Ill'

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lib

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3

l

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H

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4 .7

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7 f

4h

75

tJ1,1nbu11011. '\h:m•.uu.l·kat plut .

nnd hlMCJi.!l'illll for 1hcsc tlato

b.O

b .

1,.,.

the"" tabular and graph1Caf tc"<:hn1quc.,, 10 Je,<nhe the

,h,1pc. center, .ind ~prcmJ uf&111 d1,tr1huuvn .1tnJ "' 1t.lcru1ly un~ outlymp, '·alucs.

.1tnJ "' 1t.lcru1 ly un~ outlymp, '·alucs. SUMMARY Concept Page Notat ion I Formula I

SUMMARY

Concept

Page

Notat ion I Formula I Description

 

C11cgoricnl da1a >el r-.umcncnl data :.e1

29

Con>1'1> of nb!>Cn•li1on' 1hn1 ma) be placed m10 ca1c~oric'

29

Consists of obo;cr\.·auon., thnt ore numbers

 

D1«rc1c dnta

:1

JI)

The set of all r<""ble "'iuc',. tinnc. or counwhi> inlinnc.

Conllnunus dala sci

lll

The set of all

r<"'thle \Jluc' "an m1cn·al nf number.

Fn.'<!llCO'] dislnbution

B

A 1abk u-cJ 10 dc•<nhe a d.113 -.:I

11 mdude>

1he cia" , frcqucnl'). and rcfati\e

 

fiatucncy (and cumu lall\C rclall« frcqucnq. 1f the d.11.t llCI "numencal).

tla" frcqu<nc') Ua" rdatl\C frequency

33

The

number of ub-\~f\:Jlmn'\\.llhin a cla

 

33

The P"'I'<'"'"" of ob<cnauon> "nhm a cm

,

cf.,,, frequent} dMdcd by totnl

 

numher of ob-

Chapter Summary A ta ble at

the e nd o f eac h c ha p te r

of the m a in co nce pts w ith

brief desc ri ptions, p roper no ta- tio n, and applicable formu las,

p rO\ id es

a li st

a long

with

page

numbers

fo r

qu ick

re fe rence.

USUnchPod

W. H. Freeman's new online homework system, Laun c hPad, offers our qua l ity content

curated and organized for easy assignability in a simple but powerful interface. We've

taken what we've learned from thousands of instructors and hundreds of thousands of students to create a new generation ofW. H. Freeman/Macmillan technology.

Curated Units. Combining a curated collection of videos, homework sets. tuto ri a ls, ap- plets, and e-Book content, LaunchPad's interactive units give instructors building blocks to use as is or as a starting point for their own learning units. Thousands of exercises from the text can be assigned as online homework, including many algorithmic exercises. An entire unit's worth of work can be assigned in seconds, drastically reducing the amount of time it takes to have a course up and running.

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xv

XVi

PREFACE

Statistical Video Series consists ofStatClips, StatClips Examples, and Statistically Speak- ing "'Snapshots." View animaced lecture videos, whiteboard lessons, and documentary-style footage that illustrate key statistical concepts and help students\ isualize statistics in real- world scenarios.

New Video Technology Manuals available forTl-83 /84 ca lcu lators, Minitab, Excel, JMP, SPSS. R. Rcmdr. and CrunchJT! provide brief instructions for using specific statistica l software.

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Updated Statistical Applets give students hands-on opportun ities to familiarize them- se lves with important statistica l concepts and procedures, in an interactive setting that

graph ically. These new applets

now incl ude a "Quiz Me" function that allows them to be both assignable and assess- able. Icons in the textbook indica te when an applet is ava ilable for the materia l being covered.

a llows them to manipu late va riables and see the results

Crunchlt! is a web-based statistical program that allows users to perform all the statistical operations and graphing needed for an introductory statistics course and more. It saves users time by automatically loading data from the text, and it provides the flexibility to edit and import additional data.

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Stats@Work Simulations put students in the role of the statistical consultant. helping them better understand statistics interactively within the context of real-life scenarios.

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Data files are ava ilable in ASCH, Excel, T l, Minitab, SPSS (an IBM Company),* and JM P formats.

Student Solutions Manual provides solutions to the odd-numbered exercises in the text. Avai lable electronically within LaunehPad as well as in print form.

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Instructor's Solutions Manual contains full solutions to all exercises from ln1roduc101:v Statistics: A Problem-Solving Approach. Avai lable e lectronically wi thi n Launch Pad.

Test Bank offers hundreds of multiple-choice questions. Also ava ilable on CD-ROM (for Windows and Mac), where questions can be downloaded, edi ted, and resequenced to suit each instructor's needs.

•sPSS was acquired by IB M in October 2009.

PREFACE

XVli

Lecture PowerPoint Slides offer a detailed lecture presentation of statistical concepts

covered in each chapter of /11trod11c101:r Statistics: A Problem-Soldng Approach.

Additional Resources Available with Introductory Statistics: A Problem-Solving Approach

Companion Website www.whfreeman.com/introstats2e This open-access website in-

cludes statistical applets. data files, and self-quizzes. The website also ofTers three option- al sections CO\'cring the norma l approx imation to the binomia l distribution (Sect ion 6.5), polynomial and qualitative predictor models (Section 12.6), and model selection proce- dures (Section 12.7). Instructor access to the Companion Website requires user registra- tion as an instructor and features all of the open-access student web materials, plus:

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! would like to thank the fo llowing colleagues who offered specific comments and sug- gestions on the second-edition manuscript throughout various stages of development:

Jonathan Baker, Ohio Stale University Andrea Boi to. Penn Swte Altoona Alexandra Challiou, Notre Dame ofMlllyland University Carolyn K. Cuff, Westminster College Greg Davis, l.mi1•ersity of IVisconsin Green Bay Richard Gonzalez, Unil·ersity of Michigan Justin Grieves. Murray State Unil•ersity Christian Hansen, Eastern lflashi11gton Unil'ersity

Christopher Ilay-Jahans, U11il•ersity ofAla:>ka Southeast Susan Herring, Sonoma State University Chester Ismay. Ari=o11a State University Ananda Jayawardhana, Pitt State Uni1•ersity

Phi ll ip

Kenda ll , \,/ic/1igan Tecl111ological Unil'ersi(1 1

Bashir Khan. St. Mwy University

Barbara Kisi le\ sky, Queens Universi(1•

Tammi Kostos, \kl fen1:1 1 Co1111ty College Adam Lazowski. Sacred Heart Unil>ersity Jiexiang Li. College ofClwrleston Edgard Maboudou, Uni1•ersi~1·of Central Florida

Tina Mancuso. Sage College

Scott McClintock. 11est Chester University Jackie Miller. Un11•ersity <?f'vfichigan Daniel Ostrov. Santa Clara U11iversity William Radulovich, Florida State College at Jackso1ll'ille Enayetur Raheem. Uni1•ersi~roj Wisco11sin - Green Bay Daniel Rothe, Alpena Community College James Stamey, Baylor Unil'ersity Sunny Wang, St. Francis Xa1•ier Unil'ersity Derek Webb, Bemidji State U11i11ersity Daniel Weiner. Boston U11il'(!rsity Ma rk Werner, Unil•ersily of Ge01gia

Nancy Wyshi nski, Trini(1' College

A special thanks to Ruth Baruth, Terri Ward. Karen Carson. Cara LeClair, Lisa Kinne, Tracey Kuehn. Ju lia DeRosa, Vicki Tomase ll i, Robin Fadool, Marie Dripchak. Liam Ferguson. Catriona Kaplan, Laura Judge. and Victoria Garvey of W. 11. Freeman and Company. Designer Jerry Wilke and illustrator Cambraia Fernandez, led by Vicki Tomaselli. of- fered the creati\:ity. expertise. and hard work that went into the design of this new edition. I am very grateful to Jackie Miller for her insights. suggestions. and editorial talent throughout the production of the second edition. She is doggedly accurate in her accuracy reviews and page proof examination. Thanks to Dennis Free of Aptara for his patience and typesetting expertise. Much appreciated are the copy editing skills brought to the project by Lynne Lackenbach; her time and perseverance helped to add cohesion and continuity to the fl ow of the material. Many thanks to Aaron Bogan for bringing his

xviii

ACKNOWLEDGMENTS

xix

attention to detail and knowledge of statistics to the accuracy review of the solutions manuals. And I could not have completed this project without Karen Carson and Leslie Lahr. Both have superb editing skills, a keen eye for style, a knack for eliciting the best from an author, and unwavering support. My sincere thanks go to the authors and reviewers of the supplementary materials

available with /11trod11cto1y Staristics: A Problem-So/PingApproach, Second Edition; their

hard work, expertise, and creativity have culminated in a top -notch package of resources:

Tes t Bank written by Julie C lark, Ho ll ins University

Test Bank and iClicker s lides accuracy reviewed by John Samons, Florida State College at Jacksonville

Practice Quizzes written by James Stamey, Baylor University

Practice Quizzes accuracy reviewed by Laurel Chiappetta, University of Pittsburgh

iClicker

Lecture PowerPoints created by Susan Herring, Sonoma State University

I am very grateful to the entire Antoniewicz family for providing the foundation for a wide va riety of problems, including those that involve nephelometric turbidity units, floor slip testers, and crazy crawler fishing lures. I continue to learn a great deal wi th every day of writing. I believe this kind of exposi- tion has made me a better teacher. To Joan, thank you for your patience, understanding, inspiration, and tasty treats.

s lides created by Paul Baker, Catawba College

Credit Eric Foster

S teve received his undergraduate degree from Boston College and his M.S. and Ph.D. from the University of New Hampshire. His initial re-

search interests included the statistical analysis of cancer chemoprevention experiments. He has published a number of research papers in mathematics

journals, including Biometrics, Anticancer Research. and Computer Methods

and Programs in Biomedicine; presented results at national conferences; and written several books. He has been awarded grants from the National Sci- ence Foundation, the Center for Rural Pennsylvania, and the Ben Franklin Program. Steve is a long-time consultant for the College Board and conducted workshops in Brazil, the Dominican Republic. and China. He was the AP Calculus Chief Reader for four years and has been involved with calculus refom1 and the use of technology in the classroom. He has been teaching at Bloomsburg University for 25 years and recently served as Director of the Honors Program. Steve has been teaching introductory statistics classes throughout his aca- demic career, and there is no doubt that this is his favorite course. This class (and text) provides students with basic, lifelong, quantitative skills that they will use in a lmost any job and teaches them how to think and reason logically. Steve believes very strongly in data-driven decisions and conceptual under- standing through problem solving. Steve's uncle, Fr. Stanley Bezuszka. a Jesuit and professor at Boston Col- lege, was one of the original architects of the so-called new math in the 1950s and 1960s. He had a huge influence on Steve's career. Steve helped Fr. B. with test accuracy checks, as a teaching assistant, and even writing projects through high school and college. Steve learned about the precision, order, and elegance ofmathematies and developed an unbounded enthusiasm to teach.

xx

INTRODUCTORY

STATISTICS

The Science of Intuition In the movie Erin Brokovich, actress Julia Roberts plays a feisty,
The Science of Intuition
In the movie Erin Brokovich, actress Julia Roberts plays a feisty, unemployed,
single mother of three children. After losing a lawsuit because of her bad behav-
ior in the courtroom, Erin pressures her lawyer Ed Masry, for a job and he con-
ceded. Despite having no legal background, Erin begins work ing on a real estate
case involving Pacific Gas and Electric (PG&E) and the purchase of a home in
Hinkley, California.
Erin visits the seller, Donna Jensen, and learns that her husband has Hodgkin's
disease and that many Hinkley residents have concerns about the environment.
After further investigation, Erin discovers that several residents of Hinkley have
suffered from autoimmune disorders and various forms of cancer.
In fact, so many people in Hinkley suffer from similar rare diseases that Erin

concludes it could not be a coincidence . This is a very natural , intuitive conclu - sion, and it is the essence of statistical inference. Erin observed an occurrence that was so rare and extraordinary that she instinctively concluded it could not be due to pure chance or luck. There had to be another reason. Her logic was correct: The unusually high incidence of cancer in Hinkley suggested that some- th ing abnormal was happening . Indeed, PG&E had dumped water contaminated with the chemical chromium 6 into unlined storage pools. The polluted water seeped into the groundwater and eventually into local wells, and many people became ill with various medical problems. We all have this same natural instinctive reaction when we see something that is extraordinary. Sometimes we think, "Wow, that's incredibly lucky. " More often we question the observed outcomes, "There must be some other explanation." This natural reaction is the foundation of statistical inference. We make these kinds of decisions every single day. We gather evidence, we make an observa- tion , and we conclude that the outcome is either reasonable or extraordinary. The purpose of statistics is simply to quantify this typical, everyday, deductive

process. We need to learn about probabil ity so that we know for sure when
process. We need
to learn about probabil ity so that we know for sure when an
outcome is really rare . And we need to study the concepts of randomnes s and
uncertainty.
The most important point here is that this process is not unusual or excep-
t ional. The purpose of this text is to translate this common practice i nto statisti-
cal terms and models. This will make you better prepared to interpret outcomes,
draw appropriate conclusions, and assess risk.

2

CHAPTERO

WhyStudyStatist1cs

Here is another example of an extraordinary event involving a daily lottery number. The 1980 Pennsylvania Lottery scandal, or the Triple Six Fix, involved a three-digit daily lot- tery number. Nick Perry was the announcer for the Daily Number and the plan's architect. With the help of partners. Nick was able to weight all of the balls except for the ones numbered 4 and 6. This meant that the winning three-digit lottery number would be a combination of 4s and 6s. There were thus only eight possible winning lottery numbers, 444, 446, 464, 466, 644, 646, 664, and 666, and the conspirators were certain that the plan would work. The winning number on the day of the fix was 666. Ignoring the connection to the Book ofRevelations, lottery officials discovered that there were very unusual betting pat- terns that day, all on the eight possible lottery numbers involving 4 and 6. This extraordi- nary occurrence suggested that the unusual bets were not due to pure chance. This conclusion. along with an anonymous tip, helped in a grand jury investigation leading to convictions and jail time for several men.

The Statistical Inference Procedure

The crucia l prevailing theme in this text is statistical inference and decision making throu gh problem solving. Computation is important and is shown throughout the text. However, calculators and computers remove the drudgery of ha nd ca lcu lati ons and allow us to concentrate more on interpretation and drawing conclusions. Most problems in this text contain a part asking the reader to interpret the numerical result or to draw a conclusion. The process of questioning a rare occurrence or c laim can be described in four steps.

Claim: This is U1e status quo, the ordinary, typical, and reasonable course of events- what we assume to be true. Experiment: To check a claim, we conduct a relevant experiment or make an appropriate observation.

likelihood of occurrence of the observed experimental

outcome, assuming the claim is true. We wi ll use many techniques to determine whether the experimenta l outcome is a reasonable observation (subject to some vari - ability). or whether it is an exceptionally rare occurrence. We need to consider ca re- fully and quantify our natural reaction to the relevant experiment. Using probabiliry rules and concepts, we will convert our natural reaction to an experimenta l outcome into a precise measurement. Conclusion: There are always only two possible conclusions. 1. If the outcome is reasonable, then we cannot doubt the original claim. The natural co nclusion is that nothing out of the ordinary is occurring. More formally, there is no evidence to suggest that the claim is false. 2 . If the experimental outcome is rare or extraordinary, we usually disregard the lucky alternative, and we think something is wrong. A rare outcome is a contradiction. Strange occurrences naturally make us question a claim. In this case we believe there is evidence to suggest that the claim is false.

Likelihood : I !ere we consider the

Let's try to app ly these four steps to the PG&E case in Erin Brokovich. The claim or status quo is that the cancer incidence rate in Hinkley is equivalent to the national incidence rate. Recent figures from the American Cancer Society suggest that the can- cer incidence rate is approximately 55 1 in 100,000 fo r men and 419 in I 00,000 for women. 1 The expe1iment or observed outcome is the cancer incidence rate for the population living in Hinkley. In the movie, it is implied that Erin counts the number of people in Hinkley who have developed cancer.

With a Little Hel p from Tech no logy

3

Erin determines tha t the like li hood o r proba bility. Hinkley w ho have developed cance r is extre me ly low. we s hould not see tha t many peo p le w ith canc er in this

of o bse rv ing Subjec t to location.

tha t m a ny peop le in

reasonab le varia bility,

The conclusion is that this rare event is not due to pure c hance or luck . There is some

rare o bservation. The impl icatio n in the mov ie is th at the re is evi-

oth er reason fo r thi s

den ce to s uggest that so me thing e lse is afTectin g the health of the people in H inkley.

Problem Solving

g the health of th e people in H inkley. Problem Solving KEYWORDS Nonnally distributed Mean

KEYWORDS

Nonnally distributed

Mean

Standard deviation

TRANSLATION

Nonna( random variable

µ. =

<T =

34

0.5

CONCEPTS

Nonnal probability distribution

Standardization

VISION

Define a nonnal random variable and translate each question into a probability statement. Standardize and use cumulative probability associated with Z if necessary.

Perhaps one of the mos t difficult so lve problems: thinking about

whic h rules and techniques to us e. One reason many students co nsider statis tics a diffic ult

conce pts to te ac h is prob lem solving. We a ll stru ggle to w here to beg in , what ass umptions we can make, and

course is because be transla ted into

almost every problem is a word proble m. These word problems have to mathema tics.

in thi s text is a presc ripti ve tec hn ique and vis ua l ai d for pro ble m

word proble m, start by identi fyi ng the keywords and phrases. Here

steps identified in ea ch So luti o n T rail fo r solving many of probl em s in thi s tex t.

Th e Solution Trai l

solving. To decipher a

a rc th e four

1. Find the keyll'ords.

2. Correctly trans late these wo rds in statistics.

3. Determine the applicable concepts.

4. Develop a vision. o r strategy, for the soluti on.

have a corres po nding So lut io n Tra il in the of a Solution T rail appea rs in th e ma rg in .

Note that many of th ese te nn s and symbol s may be unfamil iar to you a t this po int. Ri g ht

now, just focus o n the idea that the Solution Tria l involves keywords, a translation, con- cepts, and a vision.

The keywo rd s in the proble m lead to a tran s lation into statistics. Th e stat istics q uestio n is th en so lve d by us ing th e a ppro pri ate, specific conce pts. The keywo rds . trans la t io n, a nd concepts are used to develop a g ra nd vision for so lving the problem. This solution technique is n ot a pp lica ble to every pro blem , bu t it is m ost a ppropriate

fo r findi ng probabilities through hypothes is tes ting, whic h is the

duc to ry sta tistics cou rses. Some exe rc ises

So lu tio n T ra il fo rma ll y. A s yo u beco me a ccus to med to usi ng thi s so lutio n s ty le, it w ill

become routine, natural. a nd he lpful.

Many o f the examp les ma rgin to a id in problem

presented in this text so lv ing. An exa mpl e

fou ndat io n of most intro- to w rite eac h s te p in the

in th is text ask yo u

With a Little Help from Technology

A

lthough it

is important to kn ow

and

unde rs ta nd unde rlying formulas, the ir derivat ions,

a

nd how to a ppl y them , we w ill

use

and presen t severa l d iffe rent tec hno logy too ls to

supp le me nt

actua l nume ri c al ca lc ul a tio ns. Four comm on techno logy too ls ar e presented in th is text.

1. Crun chlt! is ava ilable in La un ch Pa d, th e pub lis he r's o n lin e homework syste m . a nd is

a spread-

s heet wi th pull-dow n me nus a t the top. You ca n e nter da ta in co lumns , Va r I , Var2, e tc .,

focu s s ho uld be o n the inte rp re ta tio n of results, no t the

p roble m so lving. Yo ur

accessed unde r the Reso urces tab. T he op en ing sc ree n (Figure 0. 1) loo ks li ke

impo rt data fro m a

tile, a nd export a nd save data.

Most Stat is tics, Gra phics, a nd Dis tributio n C a lc ula tor fun c ti o ns s tart with input

input scree n fo r a graph .2

sc ree ns . O utput is di s played in a new scree n. Figure 0.2 s hows the bar cha rt with s ummari zed data , and Fig ure 0 .3 s hows th e resulting

4

CHAPTER 0

Why Study Stat1st1cs

01lnchlt

4 CHAPTER 0 Why Study Stat1st1cs 01lnchlt 2 3 5 6 7 B vari var3 Yar4

2

3

5

6

7

B

vari

var3

Yar4

Fi gure

0.1 Crunchltl opening screen.

""'a t UbeS: wllh Summorl1til °""' Man;fa<nn< 'Heqn: --- COlrtS Panmet:.ers
""'a
t
UbeS:
wllh Summorl1til °""'
Man;fa<nn<
'Heqn:
---
COlrtS
Panmet:.ers
Tiie (OIJ(l)nal):
Ralex 21 Wns
x
Llbel (
i):
Man;fa<nn<
y label (Oll(Jonal):
frequency

Figure 0.2 Bar chart input screen.

(Oll(Jonal): frequency Figure 0.2 Bar chart input screen. 20• - Figure 0.3 Crunchlt! bar chart. 2.
20•
20•

-

frequency Figure 0.2 Bar chart input screen. 20• - Figure 0.3 Crunchlt! bar chart. 2. The

Figure 0.3 Crunchlt! bar chart.

2. The Texas lnstrum ents T l -84 Plus C graphi ng calculator incl udes many common statistical feat ures such as confidence intervals, hypothesis tests, and probability distri- bution functions. Data are e nt ered and edi ted in the stat list ed itor as shown in Fig- ure 0.4. Figure 0.5 shows lhe res ulls from a one-sample t test, and Figure 0.6 shows a visualization of this hypothesis test.

Lill>=
Lill>=

Figure 0 .4 The stat list editor.

With a Little Help from Technology

S

0

HOR11RL

r!X~ AUTO

URL

ilKm

µ;o!] . 0000 t=l. 7723 p=. 1040 x=9 .2000 Sx=4. 3000 n=12. 0000

RRDIAH t1P

Figure 0.5 One-sample t-test output

HDRt1RL

FIX~ AUTO

REAL RRDIRH

t1P

0

t-test output HDRt1RL FIX~ AUTO REAL RRDIRH t1P 0 Figure 0.6 One-sample t-test visua liza tion

Figure 0.6 One-sample t-test visua liza tion .

3. Min itab is

a powerful so ftware tool for analyzing data . It has a logical interface,

including a worksheet screen similar to a common spreadsheet. Data, graph, and sta-

ti stics tool s ca n be accessed through pull-down menus, and most commands can also

be

entered in

a sess ion

window. Figure 0. 7 s hows a bar chart of the number of Ro lex

24

s ports car

race wins by automobile manufacturer.

4. Exce l 20 13 includes many co mmon chart features accessible under the Inse rt tab. There are also probabilit y distribution function s that allow the user to build tem- plates for confidence interval s, hypothesis tests, and other statistical procedures. The Data Analysis tool pack provides additional statistical function s. Figure 0.8 shows so me de sc riptive statistics associated with the ages of I00 stock brokers at a New York City firm.

-4, «lwtt of M.111111.u.tmrr

-

DX
DX

~

Rol•x 24 Wins

-

70 60 50 20 10 r.r.t ford M.mlo
70
60
50
20
10
r.r.t
ford
M.mlo

Manufacturer

Figure 0.7 Minitab bar chart

0

Age

E

Mean

42.nOO

Standard Error

0.6S43

Median

43

Mode

45

Standard Deviation 6.S426 Sample Variance 42.8052

l(urtosis

-0.5767

Skewness

0.1419

Range

28

Minimum

29

Maximum

57

Sum

4277

Count

100

Figure 0.8 Excel

descriptive stat1st1cs.

by scie ntists, engineers. and

others who want to explore or mine data. Various statistical tools and dynamic graphics are available, and this software features a friendly interactive interface. Figure 0.9 shows a scatter plot of the price of u ed Honda Accords vers us the age of the vehicle, the lea t- squares regression line, and confidence bands for the true mean price for each age. Many other technology tools and statistical so ftware packages are also available. For

example, R is free

stati stica l so ftware, SPSS is used primari ly in the social sc iences, and

SAS incorporates a proprietary programming language. Regardless of your technology choice, remember that careful and thorough interpretation of the results is an essential

part of using soflware properly.

In addition to these tool s, JMP statistical softwa re is used

6

CHAPTER 0

Why Study Statistics

llntnlt>d I Iii Y by X of Prict' by Age - JMP .,. " •
llntnlt>d I
Iii Y by X of Prict' by Age - JMP
.,.
"
• Bivariate Fit of Price By Age
15000
"
&.
10000
-~
5000
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
Age
~ LinearFct !

Figure 0.9 JMP scatter plot, regression line, and confidence bands.

0.1 Nam e th e four parts o f every stati s ti cal in

0.1

Nam e

th e

four parts o f every stati s ti cal in ference probl em .

th e SEC be lieved Go rdo n and Bud m ay have had ins ide in form ation or ma nipulated the price o f certa in stocks?

0.2

A ppl y

the

fo ur statisti ca l infere nce s teps to th e Triple

Six Fix.

0 .3

Nam e

th e four parts o f the

Solutio n Tra il.

0.4 T he Ca nary Pa rry rece n tly

cam pa ign to highl ight wome n who have been affected by

Me rck's human pa p illomavi r us ( I IPV) vaccine, Gardasi l. 3 As of November 20 13, a re port sta tes th a t the re have bee n 3 1.741

adve rse eve nts, I0,849 hospitali za ti o ns, and 144 dea ths

began the Not a Coincidence

d ue to th a t

11 P V

vacci n es. Ex pl ai n w hy T h e Ca n ary

Pa r ty be li eves

th ere

must be someth ing w ro ng w ith th e

vacc ine.

0 .5

knee inj ur y whil e o n

cruc ia te liga ment (ACL) in hi s le ft k nee in 20 12. Rose was

th e firs t pl aye r to su rfer a n AC L tear sin ce Dan ny Ma nn ing in

IL h a d bee n ve r y

rare fo r a n N BA p laye r to s u ffer a m aj o r the co urt. Derrick Rose to re an anterio r

1995 and Be rn a rd Kin g in 1985. Since the inju ry to Derri ck

R ose, at least s ix NB A pl ayers have ex pe ri e nced s imil ar

inj uri es-

to m AC Ls. S tate two poss ibl e ex pl ana ti o ns

fo r thi s

r ar e rash o f inj uries. Whi c h ex pl ana ti o n d o you think

is more

plausibl e?

Why?

0

.6

In the

mov ie. Wall Street , cor po rate ra ider Gordo n

Gekko

a nd his partner Bud Fox made a lo t of money trad ing s tocks.

Howeve r, severa l of the trad es

Securities a nd Exchange Commission (SEC). Why do you thin k

attracted the atten ti on o f the

0 .7 What do you thi nk it m ea ns when a wea therperso n says,

"There is a 50% chance of ra in today." Co nt ac t a wea therpe rso n

and ask him o r her what this s tatement means. D oes this explanation agree w ith yours?

0 .8 James Bozeman of O rl ando won the Florid a lott o tw ice. He beat the odds of I in 22,957,480 twice to win a total of $ 13

mi

ll io n.

State two

possi bl e

explanations for thi s occur ren ce.

W

hic h

ex pl a nat io n do you

think

is mo re reasona bl e?

Why?

0

.9

In

Jan uary 20 14, 33 wha les

di ed off the coast o f

Flo r id a.

Twe nt y-five were fo und o n Kicc Is la nd in Co lli er County. Bl a ir Masc. a ma ri ne ma mm al sc ienti s t wi th the Nationa l Oceanic

a nd A tmospheric A dmini stra tio n (NOAA) indicated that NOAA

was carefull y investi ga ting these

dea ths. 4 Explain why NOAA

be

lieves the w ha les d id no t die as a res ult

of n atu ral causes an d

is

investi ga ting th e d ea th s.

0.10 In Jan uary 2014, 62

o ne of two resta ura nts th a t s hare a k itc he n in Mus kegon

Co un ty, Mi ch iga n. 5 T he illnesses occur red over a fo ur-day

peri od. a nd cou nty hea lth offic ia ls bega n an immedi ate investiga tio n.

peop le beca me

s ick after din ing at

a. Ex pl ain why officia ls investi gated the source o f th ese ill nesses.

b . Appl y the fou r sta tist ica l in fere nce s teps to thi s s ituati on.

0 .11

million vehicles because of possibly out-of-control gas pedals. There had been at least 60 reported cases of runaway vehicles, some of which resulted in at least one death. 6 a. State two possible reasons for this observed high number of runaway vehicles.

In 2009 and 20 I0, Toyota issued a costly recall of over 9

b. Why do you think Toyota issued this recall?

0.12 Suppose there were 15 home burglaries in a sma ll town

during the entire year. None occurred on a Thursday. Do you think there is evidence to suggest that something very unusual

is happening on Thursdays in

this day of the week? W11y or why not?

this

town to prevent burglaries o n

Chapter O

Exercises

7

0. 13 Recently, the Sedgw ick County Health Department reported at least 27 cases of whooping cough in one month. This observed count was more than in any month in the previous five years. Do you think health officials should be concerned about this outbreak of whooping cough? Wlly or why not?

0. 14 To

you will need to feel comfortable with mathematical notation.

To review and prepare for the notation we will use. make sure you are fami liar with the following:

understand the definitions and formu las in this text.

a. Subscript notation-for example, x 1 x,,

b. Summation notation-

n -

for example, LX;

c. The definition of a function.

'

1

.,. Looking Forward • Recognize that data and statistics are pervasive and that statistics are
.,. Looking Forward
• Recognize that data and statistics are pervasive and that statistics are used to describe typica l
values and variability, and to make decisions that affect everyone .
• Understand the re lationships among a population , a samp l e, probability, and statistics.

• Learn the basic steps in a statistical inference procedure.

Learn the basic steps in a statistical inference procedure. Is it safe to eat rice? Arsenic

Is it safe to eat rice?

Arsenic is a naturally occurring element that is found mainly i n the Earth 's crust. Some people are exposed to high levels of arsenic in their jobs, or near hazardous waste sites, or in some areas of the country in which there are high levels of arsenic in the surrounding soil, rocks, or even water. Exposure to small amounts of arsenic can cause skin discoloration, and long-term exposure has been associated with higher rates of some forms of cancer. Excessive exposure can cause death. In 2012, the U.S. Food and Drug Administration (FDA) and Consumer Reports announced test results that revealed many brands of rice contain more arsenic in a single serving than is allowed by the Environmental Protection Agency (EPA) in a quart of drinking water. 1 Trace amounts of arsenic may also be found in flour, juices, and even beer. Earlier in that year, a study conducted at Dartmouth College detected arsenic in cereal bars and infant formula. The FDA has established a safe level of arsenic in drinking water, 10 parts per billion (ppb) . However, there is no equivalent safe maximum level for food . Sup- pose the FDA is conducting an extensive study to determine whether to issue any warnings about rice consumption . One hundred random samples of rice are obtained, and each is carefully measured for arsenic. The methods presented in this chapter w i ll enabl e us to identify the popula- tion of interest and the sample, and to understand the definition and impor- tance of a random sample. Most important, we will characterize the deductive process used when an an extraordinary event is observed and cannot be attrib- uted to luck.

CONTENTS 1.1 Statistics Today 1.2 Populations, Samples, Probability, and Statistics 1.3 Experiments and Random Samples
CONTENTS
1.1 Statistics Today
1.2 Populations, Samples, Probability, and Statistics
1.3 Experiments and Random Samples

10

1.1

CHA PTER 1

An Introduction to Statistics and Stat1st1cal Inference

Statistics Today

Statistics data are everywhe re : in newspapers, magazines. the Internet, the evening weather forecast. medical studies. and even sports reports. They are used to describe typical values and variability, and to make decisions that affect every one of us. It is important to be able to read and understand statistical summaries and arguments with a critical eye. This chapter presents the basic elements of every statistics problem-a population and a sample and their connection to probability and statistics. Two common methods for data collection, observational sampling and experimentation, are also introduced. Statistics data are used by professionals in many different disciplines. Actuaries are prob- ably the biggest users of statistics. They conduct statistical analyses, assess risk. and esti- mate financial outcomes. An actuary helped compute your last automobi le insurance bill.

Statistical analyses are used in a variety of settings. The National Agricultural Statistics Service publishes statistics on food production and supply. prices, farm labor, and even the price of land. Pollsters use statistical methods to predict a candidate's chances of winning an election. Using complex statistical analyses, companies make decisions about new products. Traditional statistical techniques and new sophisticated methods are used every day in making decisions that alTect our lives directly. Pharmaceutical companies use a battery of standard sta ti stical tests to determine a new drug's efficacy and possible side effects. Data mining. a combination of computer science and statistics. is a new technique used for constructing theoretical models and detecting patterns. This technique is used by many companies to understand customers better and to respond quickly to their needs. Predic- tive microbiology is used to ensure that our food is not contaminated and is safe to con-

sume. G iven certain food properties and environmental parameters. a mathematical

model is used to predict safety and shelf life. Statis tics is the science of co ll ecting and interpreting data, and drawing logica I conclu -

sions from avai lable information to solve real-world problems. This text presents several numerical and graphical procedures for organizing and summarizing data. The constant theme throughout the course, however. is statistical inference using a four-step approach:

claim. experiment. likelihood and conclusion. Here are some examples of statisti cs in the news.

1. Statistical inference: As reported in the Archi1•es of Internal Medicine, 2 researchers discovered a decline in the incidence of heart attacks in one Minnesota county follow- ing the implementation of new smoke-free workplace laws. The incidence of heart attacks decreased by 33%, from 150.8 to 100.7 per 100,000 people. The authors con- cluded that second-hand smoke alTects the cardiovascular system nearly as much as active smoking.

2 . Summary statistics: In July 2012, Time News.feed reported that the average Canadian is now richer