All in One

INVESTIGATING THE EFFECT OF EARTHQUAKE ON
BUILDINGS BY SEISMIC SIGNALS AND WAVELET

TRANSFORM
BY
ABOLARIN, John Seyi
Matric No: 09/30GB004
A PROJECT SUBMITTED TO THE DEPARTMENT OF CIVIL

ENGINEERING, FACULTY OF ENGINEERING AND
TECHNOLOGY, UNIVERSITY OF ILORIN, NIGERIA.
IN PARTIAL FULFILMENT OF THE REQUIREMENTS FOR THE

AWARD OF MASTERS OF ENGINEERING DEGREE (M. ENG) IN
CIVIL ENGINEERING
April, 2017
APPROVAL PAGE
This is to certify that this study was carried out by ABOLARIN, John Seyi with matric
number 09/30GB004 and the project has been read and approved as meeting the
requirement of the Department of Civil Engineering, Faculty of Engineering and
Technology, University of Ilorin, Nigeria for the award of Master of Engineering.
……………………………….
………………………………
Prof. A.A. Adedeji Date
Supervisor
……………………………….
………………………………
Dr. A.A. Jimoh Date
Head of Department
……………………………….
………………………………
Dr. J.I. Aguwa Date
External Examiner
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DEDICATION
This project is dedicated to the Almighty God, the creator of heaven and earth.
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ACKNOWLEDGEMENT
I acknowledge the almighty God, my Alpha and Omega who gives me the opportunity
and resources for this research programme at the Department of Civil Engineering,
Faculty of Engineering and Technology, University of Ilorin. My heartfelt gratitude goes
to my supervisor, Prof. A.A. Adedeji for his technical guidance, encouragement and
inspiration throughout this work. I appreciate the support of the entire staff of the
Department of Civil Engineering for the knowledge they imparted in me during the
course of this study. I also thank the Master’s degree programme student of Civil
Engineering Department, whose support and contribution have been of assistance to the
completion of this work. I express my indebtedness to my parent, Mr. and Mrs. Abolarin,
for the financial support and moral values they invested in me to enable me achieve this
feat. My sincere thanks also go to my siblings who contributed in one way or the other to
the success of this research. I thank the Adeoyes’ for their love, parenting advice and
care, and I pray that the good God will grant all your heart desires in Jesus name. I say a
very big thank you to you. I also appreciate to my big brother Toba and Tunde a.k.a
Henmax for your care and encouragement.
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ABSTRACT
In the year 2016, not less than four different tremors ranging from intensity III to IV from
the Modified Mercalli Intensity scale have been recorded in various parts of Nigeria,
leaving various houses affected. In this work, future occurrences of possible tremors and
earthquakes in Nigeria have been studied. A Performance Based Design (PBD) of a
reinforced concrete framed building and a plastered straw-bale walled building exposed
to earthquake ground excitations of response spectrum and time history analysis are also
carried out in this work to study the response of building to earthquake loads. The
magnitude and date of historical earthquake and tremor records in Nigeria were collected
from past researchers and are used to forecast its future occurrences in Nigeria. The
numbers of tremors and earthquakes to be expected from the year 2017 to 2030 were
predicted using Microsoft Excel 2016. Response Spectrum Analysis with a ground
acceleration of 0.31288 m/s2 (equivalent to intensity VI) was carried out on a three-storey
reinforced concrete building and a one-storey plastered straw-bale building by using CSI
ETABS 2015. The buildings were also subjected to a historical earthquake record which
happened in Petrolia in the year 1992 by also using CSI ETABS 2015. The forecast result
shows a minimum number of 3 and 4 tremor occurrences are expected to occur in the
year 2017 and year 2020 respectively with an intensity of IV to VI. Under the action of
the earthquake load, the plastered straw-bale walled building has a maximum storey drift
of 0.000001mm while the reinforced concrete building has a maximum storey drift of
0.018 mm. The plastered straw-bale walled building offers great resistance to earthquake
and can therefore be used in the construction of earthquake resistance structures.
TABLE OF CONTE
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APPROVAL PAGE II
DEDICATION III
ACKNOWLEDGEMENT IV
ABSTRACT V
TABLE OF CONTENT VI
LIST OF TABLES X
LIST OF FIGURES XII
CHAPTER ONE 1
1.0 INTRODUCTION 1
1.1 Background of the study 1
1.2 Aim and Objectives 2
1.2.1 Aim 2
1.2.2 Objectives 2
1.3 Problem Statement 3
1.4 Justification of Study 3
1.5 Scope of Work 3
1.6 Description of the Study Area 4
1.7 Thesis Outline 4
CHAPTER TWO 6
2.0 LITERATURE REVIEW 6
2.1 Earthquake 6
2.1.1 Measurement of Earthquakes 8

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2.1.1.1 Magnitude of Earthquakes 8
2.1.1.2 Intensity of Earthquakes 11
2.1.2 Earthquake Occurrences 13
2.1.3 Earthquakes in Africa 19
2.1.3.1 Earthquakes in Ghana 19
2.1.3.2 Earthquakes in Algeria 21
2.1.3.2.1 Algeria El Asnam earthquake (1980) 21
2.1.3.2.2 Boumerdès earthquake; Algeria (2003) 22
2.1.3.4 Rwanda Earthquake 23
2.1.3.5 Earthquake in Southern Africa 24
2.1.4 Earthquakes and Tremors in Nigeria 26
2.2 Earthquake Prediction 32
2.3 Seismic Forces 38
2.3.1 Building reaction to Seismic Forces 39
2.4 Seismic Analysis 40
2.4.1 The Petrolia Earthquake 40
2.4.2 The Shake Table 41
2.4.2.1 The Azalee Shake Table 41
2.4.2.2 Schierle Shake Table 41
2.4.3 Computer Simulation 42
2.4.4 Methods of Seismic Analysis 42
2.5 Straw-Bale as a Building Material 45
CHAPTER THREE 47
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3.0 METHODOLOGY 47
3.1 Collection of Data 47
3.2 Earthquake Prediction 48
3.2.1 Forecasting Using Microsoft Excel 2016 49
3.2.1.1 Yearly Forecast 49
3.2.1.2 Five-Years Forecast 52
3.2.1.3 Yearly Intensity Forecast 55
3.2.2 Forecasting Using Gretl and Eviews 55
3.3 Seismic Analysis of the Building 59
3.3.1 Material Property Definition 60
3.3.2 Member Section Definitions 62
3.3.3 Modelling and Loading 65
3.3.3.1 Response Spectrum 69
3.3.3.2 Time History 72
3.3.4 Damage Limitations 74
CHAPTER FOUR 76
4.0 RESULTS AND DISCUSSION 76
4.1 Earthquake 76
4.1.1 Forecasting Using Microsoft Excel 76
4.1.1.2 Five years Interval Forecast 77
4.1.1.3 Intensity Per Year 79
4.1.2.1 Estimation of Parameters 81
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4.1.2.2 Model Generation 84
4.2 Seismic Analysis 86
4.2.1 Reinforced Concrete Building 87
4.2.1.1 Response Spectrum Analysis 87
4.2.1.2 Time History Analysis 89
4.2.2 Plastered Straw-bale Walled Building 91
4.2.2.1 Response Spectrum Analysis 91
4.2.2.2 Time History Analysis 94
CHAPTER FIVE 97
5.0 CONCLUSIONS AND RECOMMENDATIONS 97
5.1 Conclusions 97
5.2 Recommendations 97
REFERENCES 98
PUBLICATIONS 102
APPENDIX A 103
APPENDIX B 105
APPENDIX C 107
APPENDIX D 111
LIST OF TA/BLES
Table Title Page
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2.1 Approximate categorization for magnitude of earthquakes 10
2.2 Modified Mercalli Intensity scale of 1931 12
2.3 Major earthquakes since 1900 (fatalities greater than 1,000) 13
2.4 Some deadly earthquakes on record 18
2.5 Locations of current and proposed seismic stations in Nigeria 27
2.6 List of historical/Instrumental earthquakes and tremors felt in Nigeria 31
2.7 Magnitude comparison using wavelength transforms 37
3.1 List of historical earthquakes and tremors felt in Nigeria 47
3.2 Number of earthquakes/tremors felt in Nigeria per year 49
3.3 Material properties 60
4.1 Yearly forecast for the number of tremor occurrence 77
4.2 5 years forecast for the number of tremor occurrence from 2016 to
2030 78
4.3 Forecast for the intensity of tremor occurrence per year from 2016 to
2030 79
4.4 Model identification using AIC and BIC criteria 82
4.5 ARMA (7, 7) model for the tremor data 83
4.6 Forecast for the number of tremor occurrence yearly from 2016
to 2025 86
4.7 Base reactions of the reinforced concrete building 87
4.8 Storey response (displacement) of the reinforced concrete building 87
4.9 Storey response (drifts) of the reinforced concrete building 88
4.10 Storey displacement under wind load (reinforced concrete) 88
4.11 Reinforced concrete storey response (stiffness) 89
4.12 Base reactions of the reinforced concrete building under the Petrolia
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earthquake 89
4.13 Storey response (displacement) of the concrete building under
the Petrolia earthquake 90
4:14 Storey drift for the Petrolia earthquake 90
4.15 Storey shears of the concrete building under the Petrolia earthquake 91
4.16 Base reactions for the plastered straw-bale building 92
4.17 Storey displacement for the plastered straw-bale building under RS Load 92
4.18 Storey response (displacement) under wind load 92
4.19 Storey response (shear) under the RS load 93
4.20 Storey Response (Stiffness) of the plastered straw-bale building 93
4.21 Storey Response (Drifts) 94
4.22 Base reactions of the plastered straw-bale walled building under the
Petrolia earthquake 94
4.23 Storey response (displacement) of the plastered straw-bale building
under the Petrolia earthquake 95
4.24 Storey shear for the plastered walled straw-bale building subjected
to the Petrolia earthquake 95
4:25 Storey drift of the plastered straw-bale walled building under the
Petrolia earthquake 96
LIST OF FIGURES
Figure Title Page
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1.1 Map of Nigeria showing the Zungeru-Ifewara fault 4
2.1 The locations of moderate to intense earthquakes from 1993 through
2002 7
2.2 Relationship between moment magnitude and various magnitude scales 10
2.3 Map of the Southern Africa showing seismicity distributions (M≥3)
between 1986 to 2009 25
2.4 The existing and proposed seismic stations in Nigeria 28
2.5 Location of Nigeria (in square) with respect to the craton 29
2.6 Map of Nigeria showing the Zungeru - Ifewara fault 30
2.7 Types of Earthquake Waves 38
2.8 G G Schierle Shake Table with testing model 42
3.1 Time-series data with the number of earthquake occurrence yearly 51
3.2 The forecast sheet in excel 51
3.3 The forecast sheet of yearly earthquake occurrence in excel 2016 with
Forecast parameters 52
3.4 Time-series data with the number of earthquake occurrence in 5-years
intervals 53
3.5 Microsoft Excel forecast worksheet for prediction from 2017 to 2030 54
3.6 Worksheet of Earthquake/Tremor Prediction for 5yr intervals from 2017
to 2030 54
3.7 Worksheet of earthquake/tremeor prediction for minimum intensity
from 2017 to 2030 55
3.8 Workspace of Eviews with the time series earthquake/tremor data 56
3.9 Interface for the equation estimation 56
3.10 Gretl loaded with earthquake records 57

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3.11 Earthquake data (number of occurrence) imported into Gretl 58
3.12 Interface for the model coefficient generation 58
3.13 Plan and 3-dimensional view of the three-storey reinforce concrete
building 59
3.14 Plan and 3-dimensional view of the modelled plastered straw-bale
walled building 60
3.15 Interface for material property data for concrete 61
3.16 Interface for material property data for straw-bale 61
3.17 Interface for material property data for cement plaster 62
3.18 Material property data for the concrete columns 62
3.19 Wall property definition for the plastered straw-bale wall 63
3.20 The section of the plastered straw bale wall 63
3.21 Material property definition for the concrete beam of the framed building 64
3.22 Definition of slab section 64
3.23 3-dimensional view of the modelled concrete building 65
3:24 3-dimensional view of the modelled plastered straw-bale walled building 65
3.25 Load patterns of the buildings 66
3.26 Frame load assignment for the beam of the reinforced concrete frame
building 66
3.27 Shell load assignment for the concrete slab 67
3.28 Wind load pattern definition 67
3.29 Shell load for wind pressure coefficient 68
3.30 Shape of the elastic response spectrum 69
3.31 Response spectrum definition 70
3.32 Load cases of dead, live, wind and response spectrum 71
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3.33 Load case data definition for response spectrum 71
3.34 Petrolia earthquake loading and accelerogram 72
3.35 Load case data for the time history function 73
4.1 Annual forecast of the number of tremor occurrence from 1981 to 2030 75
4.2 5 years forecast of the number of tremor occurrence from 1981 to 2030 77
4.3 Forecast for the yearly tremor intensity 78
4.4 Time plot of tremor incidents in Nigeria between the year 1981 and 2015 80
4.5 Model coefficients for the model 83
4.6 Forecasting graph using univariate time series model 85
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CHAPTER ONE
1.0 INTRODUCTION
1.1 Background of the study

An earthquake also known as a quake, tremor or temblor is the result of a sudden release
of energy in the Earth's crust that creates seismic waves. The seismicity or seismic
activity of an area refers to the frequency, type and size of earthquakes experienced over
a period of time. Insuring the resilience of lifeline infrastructures against high seismic
events in highly populated areas is of high priority in any seismic design and mitigation
plan. Examples of a lifeline infrastructure are bridges and buildings. Therefore, a large
number of studies have occurred in order to predict when and how an earthquake will
occur and also ways to protect life and property when it does occur.
Scientists can predict where earthquakes are likely to occur, however, based on the
movement of the plates in the earth and the location of fault zones. They also can make
general guesses about when earthquakes might occur in a certain area, by looking at the
history of earthquakes in the region and detecting where pressure is building along fault
lines. But these predictions may not turn out to be reliable because, when strain is
released along one part of a fault system, it may actually increase strain on another part
(Raju et al,, 2015).
In the year 2016, various cases of earthquake scare have occurred in Nigeria in form of
earth-tremors which results in continuous vibration of the ground at intervals and also
loud noises from the earth-crust. Tsalha et al. (2015) researched the various occurrences in
Nigeria and the first case of this tremor was recorded in Warri in the year 1933 and since
then various cases of this earth shaking have also been recorded. These tremors have been
associated to the Ifewara – Zungeru fault according to Akpan and Yakubu (2010).
Every year, thousands of tremors occur around the world which have gone unnoticed. It
is only noticed when the effect is felt as a result of disturbances on the ecosystem as well
as recorded. Earthquakes which is a natural disaster caused by the movement of earths
tectonic plates has also been studied and believed by researchers to also be caused by
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man activities. Activities that disturb the earth-crust like drilling of oil, mining of coal,
boring of piles, mine blasts, landslides, nuclear experiments and many more can trigger
the occurrence of earthquake. The Nigerian Association of Water-Well Drilling Rig
Owners and Practitioners (AWDROP) proposed that the indiscriminate drilling of
boreholes that is not in-line with code of practice has been a major fact that is responsible
for the earth tremors that have been occurring in Nigeria (Ogunyemi, 2016).
As earthquake is among the most damaging events caused by the earth itself, in order to
reduce the risk, it is necessary to predict where and when a future large earthquake may
occur. As urbanization advances rapidly worldwide, earthquakes cause a serious threat to
lives and properties (Narasimha et al., 2014). The mitigation of the seismic risk is a
complex task, which requires the cooperation of scientists, engineers and decision
makers, and that has to be approached at different time scales.
Almost every year, earthquake occurs somewhere in the world and captures the public
attention. Meanwhile, every day, thousands of smaller tremors often go unnoticed by
most people. Although we usually consider the ground to be solid and stable, the earth is
in fact constantly shifting under our feet.
1.2 Aim and Objectives
1.2.1 Aim
The aim of this research is to investigate the effect of earthquake on buildings by seismic
signals and wavelet transform with respect to seismic prone areas in Nigeria.
1.2.2 Objectives
In consonance with the aim of this research, the objectives are to:
i. review the common seismic prone areas in Nigeria and collect data relating to
seismic forces and wavelet transformation from past research works;
ii. develop an attribute in detecting earthquake and predicting the future

occurrence of earthquakes in Nigeria by using Microsoft Excel 2016;
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iii. carry out a Performance Based Design (PBD) assessment on a three-storey
reinforced concrete building exposed to earthquake ground excitation with the
use of standard design Response Spectrum and Time History analysis;
iv. perform numerical application by comparing the response of a concrete

building with a plastered straw-bale building under the action of both time
history and response spectrum method of seismic analysis;
v. validate the predicted future occurrences of earthquakes and tremors by

comparison of results obtained from both Microsoft Excel 2016 and Gretl
(and Eviews);
1.3 Problem Statement

Since it has been discovered that some areas in Nigeria are prone to seismic activities,
this project work is intended to look into how earthquake can be predicted and how
building structures can be protected against the eventuality of future occurrence. And
also, to reduce the fear that is accosted through earthquake when it occurs.
1.4 Justification of Study

i. The information obtained from the study of how buildings respond to seismic
loads helps a lot in vibration analysis of the structures before their design.
ii. The knowledge that some parts of Nigeria are susceptible to earthquakes makes it
mandatory that structures be designed to resist seismic loads.
iii. This study will help to reduce the fear accosted to tremor occurrences in Nigeria.
iv. The result obtained from this study can help in creating an awareness for both the
public and the government in the course of erecting structures in the study area.
Engineers can also refer to this research when working in the study area.
1.5 Scope of Work

The scope of this research covers the statistical forecast of future tremor and earthquake
occurrences in Nigeria, and also, the dynamic (seismic) analysis of building structures
subjected to earthquake loads in other to determine the response of the structure. The
building subjected to earthquake loads includes:
 A three-storey reinforced concrete framed building
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 A one-storey plastered straw-bale walled building
The seismic analysis to be performed includes:
 Time history analysis of the structures

 Response spectrum analysis of the structures
1.6 Description of the Study Area

The areas under consideration are the surrounding settlements of the Ifewara – Zungeru
fault which spans east of Ijebu-Ode in the south through Kalangai in northwestern
Nigeria as shown in Figure 1.1.
Study
area
Figure 1.1: Map of Nigeria showing the Zungeru-Ifewara fault (Odeyemi, 2006)
1.7 Thesis Outline

In this study, five chapters have been presented.
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Chapter one contains the introduction which explains the background of the study, aim
and objectives, the statement of the problem, the scope of the research work, justification
and the description of the study area.
A review of the literature related to the history of earthquakes and tremors activities in
Nigeria and Africa and as a whole are presented in chapter two. Past works by researchers
on earthquake forecasting and seismic simulation were also reviewed.
In chapter three, the methodology used in forecasting future tremor/earthquake

occurrences in Nigeria and in subjecting a reinforced concrete building and plastered
straw-bale building to seismic forces were presented.
In chapter four, the results were presented and discussed. Some of the results obtained
have been published in Abolarin and Adedeji (2016) and Abolarin et al. (2017).
Chapter five contains the conclusions and recommendations.
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CHAPTER TWO
2.0 LITERATURE REVIEW
2.1 Earthquake
A natural disaster is a major adverse happening or an unexpected occurrence resulting
from environmental factors or natural process of the earth that causes excessive
devastation, lots of collateral damages and great loss of life. A natural disaster can be
caused by earthquakes, floods, volcanic eruptions, landsides, tsunamis, hurricanes, hails,
and other geological processes. In other to be classified as a disaster, it will have
profound environmental effect/or human loss and frequently incurs financial loss.
Example of such is earthquake.
Earth’s crust ranges from 3 to 45 miles deep. The crust is a thin, hard shell that floats on
the denser, hotter rock of the mantle. The crust is divided into many pieces which are
known as tectonic plates that are constantly in motion, grinding past one another at
boundaries known as faults. As they slide past each other, the tectonic plates snag on
rough patches of rock and they then lock together like Velcro. However, even though the
fault boundaries are locked together, the plates still move, pulling at the entangled
sections. This pulling can further crack the earth’s crust, creating more faults near the
plate boundaries. An earthquake occurs when the pressure built up along a fault becomes
stronger than the pressure that is holding the rocks together. Then the rocks on either side
of the fault suddenly rip/tear apart, sometimes at supersonic speeds. The two sides of the
fault slide/move past one another, releasing the pent-up pressure. Energy from the
separation of the faults radiates outward in all directions, including towards the surface
that it is felt as an earthquake.
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In other words, an earthquake is caused by a sudden slip on a fault. The tectonic plates
are moving slowly always, but due to friction, they get stuck at their edges. When the
stress on the edge overcomes the friction, there is an earthquake that releases energy in
waves that travel through the earth’s crust and cause the shaking that we feel.
At the Earth's surface, earthquakes display themselves by shaking and sometimes

displacing the ground. When a large earthquake epicentre is located at an offshore, the
seabed sometimes suffers enough displacement which causes tsunami. The shaking in
earthquakes can also leads to landslides and sometimes volcanic activity.
In its most general sense, the term ‘earthquake’ is used to describe any seismic event,
whether a natural event or an occurrence caused by humans-that generates seismic waves.
Earthquakes are caused mostly by rupture of geological faults and also by volcanic
activity, landslides, mine blasts, and nuclear experiments. An earthquake's point of initial
rupture is called its focus or hypocentre. The term epicentre refers to the point at ground
level which is directly above the hypocentre.
While most earthquakes are caused by the movement of the earth's tectonic plates, human
activities can also produce earthquakes. Four main activities contribute to this
phenomenon, namely constructing large dams and buildings, drilling and injecting liquid
into wells, and coal mining and oil drilling. Activities that disturb the earth-crust like
drilling of oil, mining of coal, boring of piles, mine blasts, landslides, nuclear
experiments and many more can trigger the occurrence of earthquake. Figure 2.1 shows
the map with the locations of moderate to intense earthquakes from 1993 through 2002.
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Figure 2.1: The locations of moderate to intense earthquakes from 1993
through 2002 (classzone, 2014)
2.1.1 Measurement of Earthquakes

Earthquakes are complex multidimensional phenomena, the scientific analysis of which
requires measurement. Prior to the invention of modern scientific instruments,
earthquakes were qualitatively measured by their effect or intensity, which differed from
point to point. With the deployment of seismometers, an instrumental quantification of
the entire earthquake event, that is, the unique magnitude of the event became possible.
These are still the two most widely used measures of an earthquake, and a number of
different scales for each have been developed, which are sometimes confused.
Engineering design, however, requires measurement of earthquake phenomena in units
such as force or displacement. Earthquake magnitude and intensity are analogous to a
light bulb and the light it emits. A particular light bulb has only one energy level, or
wattage (for example, 100 watts, analogous to an earthquake’s magnitude). Near the light
bulb, the light intensity is very bright (perhaps 100 foot-candles, analogous to MMI IX),
while farther away the intensity decreases (for example, 10 foot-candles, MMI V). A
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particular earthquake has only one magnitude value, whereas it has many intensity
values. (Wai-Fah and Charles, 2003).
2.1.1.1 Magnitude of Earthquakes

An individual earthquake is a unique release of strain energy. The quantification of this
energy has formed the basis for measuring the earthquake event. Richter was the first to
define earthquake magnitude, as:
M L =log A−log A 0 (2.1)
where:
ML is local magnitude (which Richter only defined for Southern California),
A is the maximum trace amplitude in microns recorded on a standard Wood–Anderson
short-period torsion seismometer, at a site 100 km from the epicentre, and
LogA0 is a standard value as a function of distance, for instruments located at distances
other than 100 km and less than 600 km.
Subsequently, a number of other magnitudes have been defined, the most important of
which are surface wave magnitude Ms, body wave magnitude Mb and moment magnitude
MW. Due to the fact that ML was only locally defined for California (that is, for events
within about 600 km of the observing stations), surface wave magnitude Ms was defined
analogously to ML, using tele-seismic observations of surface waves of 20 seconds
period. Magnitude, which is defined on the basis of the amplitude of ground
displacements, can be related to the total energy in the expanding wave front generated
by an earthquake, and thus to the total energy release. An empirical relation by Richter is:
log 10 E s=11.8 +1.5 M s (2.2)
Where:
Es is the total energy in ergs, and
Ms is surface wave magnitude.
It should be noted that 101.5 = 31.6, so that an increase of one magnitude unit is equivalent
to 31.6 times more energy release, two magnitude units increase is equivalent to 1000
times more energy. Subsequently, due to the observation that deep-focus earthquakes
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commonly do not register measurable surface waves with periods near 20 second, a body
wave magnitude Mb was defined, which can be related to Ms (Darragh et al., 1994):
M b=2.5+0.63 s M s
(2.3)
Body wave magnitudes are more commonly used in eastern North America, due to the
deeper earthquakes there. A number of other magnitude scales have been developed, most
of which tend to saturate that is, asymptote to an upper bound due to larger earthquakes
radiating significant amounts of energy at periods longer than used for determining the
magnitude (for example, for Ms, defined by measuring 20-seconds surface waves,
saturation occurs at about Ms > 7.5). More recently, seismic moment has been employed
to define a moment magnitude MW (Hanks and Kanamori, 1979); which is finding
increased and widespread use:
log M 0=1.5 M w + 16.0 (2.4)
where seismic moment M0 (dyne-cm) is defined as
M 0=μA u (2.5)
where:
µ is the material shear modulus,
A is the area of fault plane rupture, and
ū is the mean relative displacement between the two sides of the fault (the
averaged fault slip).
Comparatively, MW and Ms are numerically almost identical up to magnitude 7.5.
Figure 2.2 indicates the relationship between moment magnitude and various magnitude
scales.
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Figure 2.2 Relationship between moment magnitude and various magnitude scales
(Campbell, 1985)
Table 2.1 (Wai-Fah and Lui, 2006) gives an approximate categorization for earthquake
magnitude.
Table 2.1: Approximate categorization for magnitude of earthquakes

Earthquake: Micro Small Moderate Large Great
Magnitude: Not Felt <5 5 – 6.5 6.5 – 8 >8
Source: Wai-Fah and Lui (2006)
From the foregoing discussion, it can be seen that magnitude and energy are related to
fault rupture length and slip. Researches have been carried out to determine statistical
relations between these parameters for worldwide and regional data sets, aggregated and
segregated by type of faulting (normal, reverse, and strike-slip). Bonilla et al.’s (1984)
worldwide results for all types of faults are:
M s=6.95+ 0.723 log 10 d (2.6)
log 10 d=−3.58+0.550 M s (2.7)
which indicates for example that, for Ms = 7, the average fault rupture length is about 36
km (and the average displacement is about 1.86 m), and s indicates standard deviation.
Conversely, a fault of 100 km length is capable of about a Ms = 7.55 event.
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2.1.1.2 Intensity of Earthquakes
Earthquake intensity describes how much ground shaking occurred, or how “strong” an
earthquake was, at a particular location. Earthquake waves weaken as they travel away
from the earthquake source, so an earthquake generally feels less strong the further away
from the source. The intensity of earthquake shaking at a particular location depends on
the magnitude of the earthquake (how much energy was released), and how deep and how
far away it was. Local topography, geology and soils also influence the amount of
earthquake shaking. The severity of earthquake shaking is assessed using a descriptive
scale – the Modified Mercalli intensity scale.
In general, seismic intensity is a metric of the effect, or the strength, of an earthquake
hazard at a specific location. While the term can be generically applied to engineering
measures such as peak ground acceleration, it is usually reserved for qualitative measures
of location-specific earthquake effects, based on observed human behaviour and
structural damage. There are numerous intensity scales developed in pre-instrumental
times. The most common in use today are the Modified Mercalli Intensity (MMI), Rossi–
Forel (R–F), European Macro-Seismic Scale (EMS-98), and Japan Meteorological
Agency (JMA) scales. MMI is a scale defining the level of shaking at specific sites on a
scale of I to XII (MMI is expressed in Roman numerals, to denote its approximate nature)
as shown in Table 2.2. For example, moderate shaking that causes few instances of fallen
plaster or cracks in chimneys constitutes MMI VI. It is difficult to find a reliable
relationship between magnitude, which is a description of the earthquake’s total energy
level, and intensity, which is a subjective description of the level of shaking of the
earthquake at specific sites, because shaking severity can vary with building type, design
and construction practices, soil type, and distance from the event.
Table 2.2: Modified Mercalli Intensity scale of 1931
I Not felt, except by a very few under especially favourable circumstances.

II Felt only by a few persons at rest, especially on upper floors of buildings. Delicately
suspended objects may swing.
III Felt quite noticeably indoors, especially on upper floors of buildings, but many people
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do not recognize it as an earthquake. Standing motor cars may rock slightly. Vibration
like passing truck. Duration estimated.
IV During the day felt indoors by many, outdoors by few. At night, some awakened.
Dishes, windows, and doors disturbed; walls make creaking sound. Sensation like
heavy truck striking building. Standing motorcars rock noticeably.
V Felt by nearly everyone; many awakened. Some dishes, windows broken; a few
instances of cracked plaster; unstable objects overturned. Disturbance of trees, poles,
and other tall objects sometimes noticed. Pendulum clocks may stop.
VI Felt by all; many frightened and run outdoors. Some heavy furniture moved; a few
instances of fallen plaster or damaged chimneys. Damage slight.
VII Everybody runs outdoors. Damage negligible in buildings of good design and
construction slight to moderate in well-built ordinary structures; considerable in
poorly built or badly designed structures. Some chimneys broken. Noticed by persons
driving motor cars.
VIII Damage slight in specially designed structures; considerable in ordinary substantial
buildings, with partial collapse; great in poorly built structures. Panel walls thrown
out of frame structures. Fall of chimneys, factory stacks, columns, monuments, walls.
Heavy furniture overturned. Sand and mud ejected in small amounts. Changes in well
water. Persons driving motor cars disturbed.
IX Damage considerable in specially designed structures; well-designed frame structures
thrown out of plumb; great in substantial buildings, with partial collapse. Buildings
shifted off foundations. Ground cracked conspicuously. Underground pipes broken.
X Some well-built wooden structures destroyed; most masonry and frame structures
destroyed with foundations; ground badly cracked. Rails bent. Landslides
considerable from river banks and steep slopes. Shifted sand and mud. Water splashed
over banks.
XI Few, if any (masonry), structures remain standing. Bridges destroyed. Broad fissures
in ground. Underground pipelines completely out of service. Earth slumps and land
slips in soft ground. Rails bent greatly.
XII Damage total. Waves seen on ground surfaces. Lines of sight and level distorted.
Objects thrown upward into the air.
Source: Wai-Fah and Lui (2006)
2.1.2 Earthquake Occurrences

An earthquake which is a major problem for mankind has caused loss to millions of life
and damages to properties. Wai-Fah and Charles (2003) documented earthquake fatalities
since 1990 and deduced that almost 17,000 persons per year were killed in the twentieth
century. Table 2.3 shows a record of some selected earthquakes since 1900 with fatalities
greater than 1,000.
Table 2.3: Major earthquakes since 1900 (fatalities greater than 1,000)
13
Year Day & Month Location Death Magnitude
19-Apr Guatemala 2,000 7.5
1902
16-Dec Turkestan 4,500 6.4
19-Apr Turkey 1,700
1903
28-Apr Turkey 2,200 6.3
04-Apr India, Kangra 19,000 8.6
1905
08-Sep Italy, Calabria 2,500 7.9
31-Jan Colombia 1,000 8.9
16-Mar Taiwan, Kagi 1,300 7.1
1906
18-Apr San Francisco, CA 2,000 8.3
17-Aug Chile, Santiago 20,000 8.6
14-Jan Jamaica, Kingston 1,600 6.5
1907
21-Oct Central Asia 12,000 8.1
1908 28-Dec Italy, Messina 70,000 7.5
1909 23-Jan Iran 5,500 7.3
1912 09-Aug Turkey, Marmara Sea 1,950 7.8
1915 13-Jan Italy, Avezzano 29,980 7.5
21-Jan Indonesia, Bali 15,000
1917
30-Jul China 1,800 6.5
1918 13-Feb China, Canton 10,000 7.3
Table 2.3 (Contd.): Major earthquakes since 1900 (fatalities greater than 1,000)

1920 16-Dec China, Gansu 200,000 8.6
24-Mar China 5,000 7.3
1923 25-May Iran 2,200 5.7
01-Sep Japan, Kanto 143,000 8.3
1925 16-Mar China, Yunnan 5,000 7.1
07-Mar Japan, Tango 3,020 7.9
1927
22-May China, nr Xining 200,000 8.3
1929 01-May Iran 3,300 7.4
06-May Iran 2,500 7.2
1930
23-Jul Italy 1,430 6.5
1931 31-Mar Nicaragua 2,400 5.6
1932 25-Dec China, Gansu 70,000 7.6
02-Mar Japan, Sanriku 2,990 8.9
1933
25-Aug China 10,000 7.4
1934 15-Jan India, Bihar-Nepal 10,700 8.4
20-Apr Formosa 3,280 7.1
1935 30-May Pakistan, Quetta 30,000 7.5
16-Jul Taiwan 2,700 6.5
25-Jan Chile, Chillan 28,000 8.3
1939
26-Dec Turkey, Erzincan 30,000 8
1940 10-Nov Romania 1,000 7.3
26-Nov Turkey 4,000 7.6
1942
20-Dec Turkey, Erbaa 3,000 7.3
1943 10-Sep Japan, Tottori 1,190 7.4
14
26-Nov Turkey 4,000 7.6

15-Jan Argentina, San Juan 5,000 7.8
1944 01-Feb Turkey 2,800 7.4
07-Dec Japan, Tonankai 1,000 8.3
12-Jan Japan, Mikawa 1,900 7.1
1945
27-Nov Iran 4,000 8.2
31-May Turkey 1,300 6
1946 10-Nov Peru, Ancash 1,400 7.3
20-Dec Japan, Tonankai 1,330 8.4
28-Jun Japan, Fukui 5,390 7.3
1948
05-Oct Turkmenistan 110,000 7.3
1949 05-Aug Ecuador, Ambato 6,000 6.8
1950 15-Aug India, Assam; Tibet 1,530 8.7
1954 09-Sep Algeria, Orleansvl 1,250 6.8
27-Jun USSR (Russia) 1,200
1957 02-Jul Iran 1,200 7.4
13-Dec Iran 1,130 7.3
29-Feb Morocco, Agadir 10,000 5.9
1960
22-May Chile 4,000 9.5
1962 01-Sep Iran, Qazvin 12,230 7.3
1963 26-Jul Yugoslavia, Skopje 1,100 6
1966 19-Aug Turkey, Varto 2,520 7.1
1968 31-Aug Iran 12,000 7.3
1969 25-Jul Eastern China 3,000 5.9
04-Jan Yunnan, China 10,000 7.5
1970
28-Mar Turkey, Gediz 1,100 7.3
Table 2.3 (Contd.): Major earthquakes since 1900 (fatali ies greater than 1,000)

1970 31-May Peru 66,000 7.8
10-Apr Iran, southern 5,054 7.1
1972
23-Dec Nicaragua 5,000 6.2
10-May China 20,000 6.8
1974
28-Dec Pakistan 5,300 6.2
04-Feb China 10,000 7.4
1975
06-Sep Turkey 2,300 6.7
1976 04-Feb Guatemala 23,000 7.5
06-May Italy, northeastern 1,000 6.5
25-Jun New Guinea 422 7.1
27-Jul China, Tangshan 255,000 8
16-Aug Philippines 8,000 7.9
15
24-Nov Iran-USSR border 5,000 7.3
1977 04-Mar Romania 1,500 7.2
1978 16-Sep Iran, Tabas 15,000 7.8
10-Oct Algeria, El Asnam 3,500 7.7
1980
23-Nov Italy, southern 3,000 7.2
11-Jun Iran, southern 3,000 6.9
1981
28-Jul Iran, southern 1,500 7.3
1982 13-Dec W. Arabian Peninsula 2,800 6
1983 30-Oct Turkey 1,342 6.9
1985 19-Sep Mexico, Michoacan 9,500 8.1
1986 10-Oct El Salvador 1,000 5.5
1987 06-Mar Colombia-Ecuador 1,000 7
1988 20-Aug Nepal-India border 1,450 6.6
1988 07-Dec Armenia, Spitak 25,000 7

20-Jun Iran, western 40,000 7.7
1990
16-Jul Philippines, Luzon 1,621 7.8
1991 19-Oct India, northern 2,000 7
1992 12-Dec Indonesia, Flores 2,500 7.5
1993 29-Sep India, southern 9,748 6.3
16-Jan Japan, Kobe 6,000 6.9
1995
27-May Sakhalin Island 1,989 7.5
1997 10-May Iran, northern 1,560 7.5
04-Feb Afghanistan 2,323 6.1
1998 30-May Afghanistan 4,000 6.9
17-Jul Papua New Guinea 2,183 7.1
25-Jan Colombia 1,185 6.3
17-Aug Turkey 17,118 7.4
1999
20-Sep Taiwan 2,297 7.6
2001 26-Jan India, Bhuj 19,988 7.7
Total Events = Total Deaths
108 = 1,762,802
Source: Wai-Fah and Charles (2003)
Table 2.4 also shows some of the deadliest earthquake to ever occur in the world in order
of their death rate.
16
Table 2.4: Some deadly earthquakes on record
Year Day & Location Death Magnitud

Month e
1556 23-Jan Shansi, China 830,000 ~8
1976 27-Jul Tangshan, China 225,000 7.5
1138 9-Aug Aleppo, Syria 230,000
2004 26-Dec Off west coast of northern 225,000+ 9.0

Sumatra
2010 12-Jan Haiti 222,570 7.0
856 AD 22-Dec Damghan, Iran 200,000
1927 22-May Near Xining, Tsinghai, China 200,000 7.9
1920 16-Dec Gansu, China 200,000 7.8
893 23-Mar Ardabil, Iran 150,000
1923 1-Sep Kwanto, Japan 143,000 7.9

1948 5-Oct Ashgabat, Turkmenistan, USSR 110,000 7.3
1908 28-Dec Messina, Italy 70,000- 7.2

100,000
1290 Sep Chihli, China 100,000
2008 12-May Eastern Sichuan, China 87,587 7.9
2005 8-Oct Pakistan 80,361 7.6
1667 Nov Shemakha, Caucasia 80,000
1727 18-Nov Tabriz, Iran 77,000
1932 25-Dec Gansu, China 70,000 7.6
1755 1-Nov Lisbon, Portugal 70,000 8.7
1970 31-May Peru 66,000 7.9
17
Table 2.4 (Contd.): Some deadly earthquakes on record
1935 30-May Quetta, Pakistan 30,000-60,000 7.5
1693 11-Jan Sicily, Italy 60,000
1268 - Silicia, Asia Minor 60,000
1990 20-jun Iran 50,000 7.7
1783 4-Feb Calabria, Italy 50,000
Source: Infoplease (2015).
2.1.3 Earthquakes in Africa
Some parts of Africa have been experiencing earthquakes and also tremors
2.1.3.1 Earthquakes in Ghana
Ghana is located on the south-eastern margin of the West Africa craton and is far away
from the major earthquake zones that mark the present day lithospheric plate boundaries.
However, a number of major and minor earthquakes have struck the country in past and
present. Earth tremors of magnitude ranging from 1.0 to 4.8 on the Richter scale have
been recorded in recent times (Paulina, 2004). The first earthquake in Ghana according to
Ambraseys and Adams (1986) occurred in 1615. The fortress of Sao Jorge at Elmina was
destroyed. This was followed by a few aftershocks a couple of months later.
The earliest recorded earthquake in Ghana occurred at about 2:00 p.m. on 18th
December, 1636 in the Axim district in southwestern Ghana near the border between
Ghana and the Ivory Coast. Its surface magnitude (Ms) was 5.7 and the maximum
intensity was IX on the MSK scale. The buildings and underground workings of a gold
mine at Aboasi, northeast of Axim collapsed burying many of the miners (Paulina, 2004).
18
In 1862, a very strong earthquake struck the capital city of Accra and caused considerable
damage to many important structures. Its maximum intensity and magnitude (ML) were
estimated to be IX and 6.5 respectively. A surface wave magnitude greater than or equal
to 6.5 and a maximum intensity of IX (uncertain) on the MSK scale for this event was
obtained. The castle (the seat of government) and some forts were rendered
uninhabitable, together with all stone buildings. Three people were killed in Accra. The
earthquake shock was felt along the coast, east of Togo and in Benin, which are
neighbouring countries to Ghana (Paulina, 2004).
An earthquake, which was felt in Accra in 1863, appears to have been an aftershock of
the 1862 earthquake but there is no detailed information on the event to confirm this.
Two severe shocks rocked Accra in 1871 and 1872. The magnitudes of these events were
4.6 and 4.9 respectively and the maximum intensities were VI and VII. The 1872 event
caused damages to buildings in Accra.
In 1883 there was another minor event, which was reported to have been felt in Accra.
Paulina (2004) also recorded that two severe shocks were felt in Eastern Ghana and Togo
at about 9:00 p.m. and 9:20 p.m. on 20 November 1906. The maximum intensity of the
shocks was estimated to be VIII at Ho in the Eastern region of Ghana. The magnitude
(ML) estimation was 6.2; however, the estimation of the surface magnitude (Ms) was 5.0
and the maximum intensity VIII on the MSK scale, which they considered uncertain.
Many buildings were greatly affected by this event, some cracked and others partly
destroyed. No casualties were reported for this event, also felt by people in Togo and
Benin. During the same month, several minor shocks were felt lasting for three weeks.
On 11 February 1907, a fairly strong shock was felt in Accra and Lome. An earthquake
located out to sea and accompanied by tidal waves destroyed the wharf at Lome in Togo
on 11 May 1911. During the same day at 3:21 p.m., an earthquake was felt in Accra but
did not cause any damage.
The most destructive earthquake in Ghana that caused a lot of damage and loss of life and
property occurred on 22 June 1939. The earthquake occurred at about 7:20 p.m. and was
felt for about 20 to 30 seconds. The earthquake was assigned a magnitude of 6.5 on the
Richter scale and a maximum intensity of IX. The surface wave and body wave
magnitudes were estimated to be 6.4 and 6.8 respectively and the maximum intensity as
19
IX. The magnitude (ML) was also estimated to be 6.4. The intensity of the shock was
greatest in James town, a suburb of Accra. Seventeen people were killed, 133 injured and
an estimated one million pounds’ worth of damage done to buildings. The earthquake was
extensively felt. Persons over an area of about 750 000 square kilometres and at places
more than 800 kilometres from Accra felt it. The epicentre was rather out to sea otherwise
the felt area would have been more than the estimated figure. The earthquake was
recorded tele-seismically at various observatories around the world. The epicentre was
located at 5.18° N, 0.13° W with a focal depth of 13 kilometres (Odeyemi, 2013).
The most prominent geological effect of the 1939 earthquake was a line of fissure in the
alluvium bordering the Akwapim scarp between Weija and Fete. In April 1939, two minor
shocks believed to be foreshocks of the 1939 earthquake occurred in Accra. As many as
five aftershocks were felt in a day. This trend continued until July 1939.
On 11 March, 1964 and 9 February, 1969 earth tremors of magnitudes (ML) 4.5 and 4.7
were recorded respectively. Both events were felt in Accra. The 1964 event was located
not far from the multi-million-dollar hydroelectric dam in Akosombo.
The latest tremors, which were felt in all the regional capitals, occurred on 8 January
1997, 14 February 1997 and 6 March 1997. These events caused panic among the people
in the affected areas. Many minor tremors were recorded from 1998 to 2002 with
magnitudes ranging from 1.0 to 3.0 on the Richter scale. The intensities range from I to
IV (Paulina, 2004).
2.1.3.2 Earthquakes in Algeria
2.1.3.2.1 Algeria El Asnam earthquake (1980)
The 1980 El Asnam earthquake was an earthquake that occurred in the Algerian town of
El Asnam, now known as Chlef, within the central part of the Chelif valley. The
earthquake - at 7.3 on the Richter scale was the largest earthquake in Algeria and was
followed 3 hours later by an aftershock measuring 6.3 on the Richter scale, and these two
quakes caused considerable damage and a high death toll.
The initial earthquake occurred at 12.24 GMT. Reports initially put the death toll much
higher at around 20,000. The final death toll, however, ended up being around 3,500. The
20
town's main hospital, a big department store, the central mosque, a girls' school and two
housing complexes were destroyed. Around 300,000 people were left homeless. The
earthquake was the largest in the Atlas range since 1790 (Ambraseys, 1981).
2.1.3.2.2 Boumerdès earthquake; Algeria (2003)
The northern Algeria is situated at the boundary between the African Plate and the
Eurasian Plate, thus creating a zone of compression. This zone of compression manifests
itself by several thrust and faults. Due to this location between two tectonic plates, many
earthquakes occurred in the region. The mechanism of the earthquake on May 21
corresponds to a northeast-striking thrust fault named Zemmouri fault which was
identified for the first time after this earthquake.
Approximately 2,266 people were killed and 10,261 injured in the earthquake. More than
1,243 buildings were completely or partially destroyed and nearly 150,000 people
became homeless. Infrastructures were damaged in Algiers, Boumerdès, Réghaïa and
Thénia.
A tsunami was generated by the quake which damaged boats off the coast of the Balearic
Islands. East of the capital Algiers was affected most and the Boumerdès Province was
the hardest-hit region. In the Boumerdès Province, several cities were heavily damaged
including Thénia, Zemmouri and Boumerdès, which were the worst affected cities. Many
buildings built in the early twentieth century during the colonial rule suffered heavy
damage in the Belcourt, Bab-El-Qued and El-Casbah areas in Algiers Province. A water
treatment plant in Boudouaou, which provides more than 12% of the treated water to the
Boumerdès and Algiers, suffered light damage to the clarifiers and clear water storage
tanks. The water pipeline from the Keddara Dam to the water treatment plant was broken
at a concrete junction structure at the dam and at the treatment plant. The main power
plant in Cap Djenet suffered minor to moderate damage. A high voltage switch yard
located near Réghaïa had heavy damage.
Societé Nationale des Transports Ferrovaires, Algeria's state-owned railway company,
suffered track damage near the town of Thénia. Some tracks were also blocked by debris
of destroyed buildings. Eighteen bridges in the affected region had minor to moderate
21
damage. Cracks developed in some roads and highways. The port of Algiers, which at
that time handled approximately 40% of the national cargo traffic, suffered light to
moderate damage due to soil liquefaction and settlement caused by the earthquake. Port
operations were reportedly reduced by 30% immediately after the quake. The minor ports
in Zemmouri and Dellys received little damage. The airport control tower and terminal
were moderately damaged.
The earthquake had significant effect on local communication. An 8,000-switch central
office in the El Harrach area of Algiers completely destroyed and another 20,000-switch
office was heavily damaged. Central offices in Boumerdes, Zemmouri and Tidjelabine
were damaged. Submarine telecommunication cables also suffered damage. Two
underwater fibre optic cables between Algeria and Spain received heavy damage due to
undersea landslide caused by the quake (Edwards, 2004).
2.1.3.4 Rwanda Earthquake

An earthquake occurred in 2008 at the Western Rift of the East African rift system. The
East African rift system is a diffuse, approximately 3000-km-long, zone of crustal
extension that passes through eastern Africa from Djibouti and Eritrea on the north to
Malawi on the south and that constitutes the boundary between the Africa plate on the
west and the Somalia plate on the east. At the earthquake's latitude, the Africa and
Somalia plates are spreading apart at a rate of about four millimetres per year. The
earthquake occurred near Lake Kivu, the basin of which was created by normal faulting.
The largest earthquake to have occurred in the rift system since 1900 had a magnitude of
about 7.6. The epicentre of the February 3, 2008, earthquake is within several tens of
kilometres of the epicentre of a magnitude 6.2 earthquake that killed two people in Goma
in October 2002. Earthquakes within the East African rift system occur as the result of
both normal faulting and strike-slip faulting. The earthquake was felt in Burundi, causing
an electricity cut, and as far as the Kenyan capital Nairobi. At least 21 people were killed
and 200 seriously injured when two earthquakes struck Rwanda and neighbouring
Democratic Republic of Congo on Feb 3, 2008. The quakes struck close together in
Africa’s great lakes region along the same western Great Rift Valley fault line. The first
quake, with a magnitude of 6.0 and its epicentre in Democratic Republic of Congo
22
happened at 10.30am, followed by another 5.0 quake in southern Rwanda. Earthquakes
are common in the western Great Rift Valley —a seismically active fault line straddling
western Uganda, eastern Democratic Republic of Congo, Rwanda and neighbouring
Tanzania.
Another Earthquake occurred in 2005. The Lake Tanganyika earthquake occurred along
the East African Great Rift Valley, and struck at 12:19:55 (UTC) (14:19:55 local time at
the epicentre) on 5 December 2005 with its focus approximately 10 km (6 miles) below
the surface of Lake Tanganyika. Its estimated magnitude was between 6.3 and 6.8.
Although earthquakes with magnitudes in the 6-7 range are not normally associated with
massive damage, in East Africa such seismic events can wreak havoc. The quake was
centred roughly below Lake Tanganyika and — in addition to the Democratic Republic of
Congo, where the most widespread damage has been reported — it was felt in Burundi,
Tanzania, Rwanda, and as far away as the coastal city of Mombasa in Kenya. The tremor
was felt in places as far as Luanda, Angola, where it was felt for around 20 seconds,
enough to send people running in panic in search of a shelter. No damage was reported
there (Reuters, 2008).
2.1.3.5 Earthquake in Southern Africa

Southern Africa region, a portion of the African plate, is located between Latitude 35°S
and 15°S and Longitude 10°E and 50°E. The map of the major tectonic plate indicates
that the Southern Africa region is not traversed by any major tectonic plate boundary.
Southern Africa is located in the interior of large Africa plate. In Southern Africa, the
areas of activity seismicity are in Mozambique, Zimbabwe and Northern Botswana.
These activities are believed to be an extension of the East Africa rift system.
The borders of this plate to the south are located in the mid-Atlantic and mid-India Ocean
ridges. The Southern Africa region is located in an intra-plate area and it is associated
with a rather complex seismic characteristics. Most devastating earthquakes are tectonics
origin and the epicentre of over 90% of global natural earthquakes take place at boundary
of major plates.
The mining activities have also contributed immensely to the hosting of seismic events, it
has been established that up to 40 or more tremors are recorded monthly. The largest
23
mine related event in the history of South Africa occurred on 5 March 2005 in the
Klerksdorp (Stilfontein) gold mining district, 200km west of Johannesburg, which
reached a magnitude of 5.3 and thus, below the ground, substantial damage was observed
within the mines, while above ground, the structural damage to property was relatively
low.
The south-western Cape has one of the highest levels of seismicity in South Africa, which
is characterized by its dual source of seismicity comprising mine related events and
tectonic origin earthquakes.
Historically, the most severe earthquake of magnitude 6.3 occurred on 29 September
1969 in Ceres, 100 km northeast of Cape Town. The event resulted in loss of lives and
numerous buildings damaged in the town of Tulbagh. On 4 September 1809, a seismic
event estimated at magnitude 6.3, occurred at the Milnerton Fault, a mere 10km from
Cape Town CBD and the location of the Cape Town Stadium (Alabi et al., 2013). Figure
2.3 shows a map of Southern Africa showing the seismicity of the region.
24
Figure 2.3: Map of the Southern Africa showing seismicity distributions (M≥3)
between1986-2009 (Alabi et al., 2013)
2.1.4 Earthquakes and Tremors in Nigeria

Nigeria lies on the eastern flank of the Atlantic Ocean, and since Jurassic times, the
Atlantic Ocean margins have been opening consistently. Unlike the Pacific Ocean
margins which are characterized by subduction tectonics and occurrence of devastating
earthquakes, the Atlantic margins are generally thought to be quiet and as a result, there
was little consciousness and preparedness for earthquake occurrences and mitigation in
Nigeria and west Africa.
Some seismic events have occurred within the last 70 years especially in the south-
western part of Nigeria, but no destruction and loss of lives were reported and/or
documented; they were only felt as vibrations. This is an indication that micro-
25
earthquakes might actually be occurring but the lack of seismic data occasioned by the
non-availability of seismological stations had made the determination of the locations and
magnitudes of these events difficult. In 2002, the Federal Government of Nigeria
established the Centre for Geodesy and Geodynamics in Toro and saddled it with the
responsibility of monitoring seismic activities in the country. Since 2006 the centre has
been managing the Nigeria National Network of Seismological Stations (NNNSS)
established by the National Agency for Science and Engineering Infrastructure
(NASENI), Abuja (Akpan and Yakubu, 2010)
In 2006, the Centre for Geodesy and Geodynamics Toro, took over the management of
the Nigerian National Network of Seismographic Stations (NNNSS) established by the
National Agency for Science and Engineering Infrastructure (NASENI). Currently, the
network comprises of five operational stations equipped with 24-bit 4 - channel data
acquisition system and broadband seismometers form the seismicity instrumental
network of Nigeria. Effort to increase the number of stations has reached an advance
stage. The Centre also intends to modify the monitoring framework to collocate with
Continuously Operating Reference Stations (CORS), Global Positioning System in the
exiting five stations and the proposed additional one station (Tsalha et al., 2015).
Figure 2.4 and Table 2.5 shows the location of both the existing and proposed seismic
stations in Nigeria.
Table 2.5: Locations of current and proposed seismic stations in Nigeria

N/ Statio Name Geological Instruments installed Coordinates
S n code Foundation
1 Oyo Oyo Granite SP-400 Seismometer, 07o 53¹131¹¹N,
DR4000 03o57¹078¹¹E
2 IBN Ibadan Gneiss No Instrument Installed 07o27¹251¹¹N,
03o53¹520¹¹E
3 IFE Ile - Ife Gneiss EP-105, Broadband 07o32¹800¹¹N,
Seismometers, DR4000 04o 32¹815¹¹E.
Recorder
4 AWK Awka Shale and Silt EP-105, Broadband 06o 14¹561¹¹N,
stone Seismometers, DR4000 07o 06¹ 693¹¹E
Recorder
5 NSU Nsukka Sandstone EP-105 Broadband 06o 52¹011¹¹N,
26
Seismometer, DR4000 07o 25¹045¹¹E
Recorder
6 ABK Abakalik Sandstone EP-105 Broadband 06o23¹453¹¹N,
i Seismometer, DR4000 08o 01¹474¹¹E
Recorder
7 ABJ Abuja Granite No Instrument Installed 08o59¹126¹¹N,
07o 23¹380¹¹E
8 TOR Toro Gneiss EP-105 Broadband 10o26¹303¹¹N,
(Central) Seismometers, DR4000 09o 07¹089¹¹E
Recorder
9 KAD Kaduna Granite EP-105 Broadband 10o 26¹101¹¹N,
Seismometers, DR4000 07o 38¹484¹¹E
Recorder
10 MINN Minna Granite EP-105 Broadband 09o 30¹702¹¹N,
Gneiss Seismometer, DR4000 06o 26¹411¹¹E
Recorder
Source: Tsalha et al. (2015)
Figure 2.4: The existing and proposed seismic stations in Nigeria (Source: Afegbua et al.,
2011).
27
In Nigeria’s geological history, there is an age long belief that the nation is seismically
safe.
It is believed that the geological framework of Nigeria is located within the mobile belt
of Africa between the West Africa Craton and the Congo Craton (Figure 2.5). The Pan–
African orogeny that occurred 600 ±100Ma was the last major deformation and
metamorphism experienced within the belt with slight effect on the adjacent Craton
(Turner, 1971). This could be the reason why the country is not experiencing major
earthquakes.
Figure 2.5: Location of Nigeria (in square) with respect to the Craton (Tsalha et al., 2015)
Earthquakes or tremors have been recorded to take place in Nigeria. This brings to
question the age long belief that Nigeria is seismically safe (Tsalha et al., 2015).
Two theories were considered as the origin of the seismicity in the country, the possible
faults systems were inferred based on the spatial distribution of the Earth tremors Yola-
Dambata, Akka-Jushi and Warri – Ijebu Remo systems (Afegbua et al., 2011). Most of
these fault systems are trending Northwest – Southeast. Figure 2.6 shows the areas where
some earth tremors were felt in Nigeria.
28
Figure 2.6: Map of Nigeria showing the areas where some earth tremors were felt (Akpan
and Yakubu, 2010) [diameter of the solid dot denotes intensity of the events, not drawn to
scale]
The second assertion which was the earlier theory revealed that the tremors occurred in
the inland extension of the north east- south west originating from the Atlantic Ocean and
that possibly causes the activities along the Ojebu-Ode and Ibadan axis which is inferred
to be associated with the Ifewara- Zungeru fracture systems (Adepelumi et al., 2008).
Although Nigeria is not located within the major seismic zones of the world; over the
years, several minor earthquakes have been experienced in some parts of the country. The
first widely reported occurrence of an Earth tremor in Nigeria was in 1933. Other events
were reported in 1939, 1964, 1984, 1990, 1994, 1997, 2000 and 2006 as shown in Table
2.6 (Akpan and Yakubu, 2012).
The intensities of these events ranged from III to VI based on the modified Mercalli
Intensity Scale. Of these events, only the 1984, 1990, 1994 and 2000 events were
instrumentally recorded. They had magnitudes ranging from 4.3 to 4.5 (Akpan and
Yakubu, 2010).
29
Table 2.6: List of historical/Instrumental earthquakes and tremors felt in Nigeria
S/ Year-Month- Origin Felt Areas Intensity/ Probable Epicentre
N Day Time Magnitude
1 1933 - Warri - -
2 1939-06-22 19:19:26 Lagos, Ibadan, Ile- 6.5 (ML) Akwapin fault in
Ife Ghana
3 1948-07-28 - Ibadan - Close to Ibadan
4 1961-07-2 15:42 Ohafia - Close Ohafia area
5 1963-12-21 18:30 Ijebu-Ode V Close to Ijebu-Ode
6 1981-04 -23 12:00 Kundunu III At Kundunu village
7 1982-10-16 - Jalingo, Gembu III Close to Cameroun
Volcanic Line
8 1984-07-28 12:10 Ijebu-Ode, Ibadan, VI Close to Ijebu-Ode
Shagamu, Abeokuta
9 1984-07-12 - Ijebu Remo IV Close to Ijebu -Ode
10 1984-08-02 10:20 Ijebu-Ode, Ibadan, V Close to Ijebu-Ode
Shagamu, Abeokuta
11 1984-12-08 - Yola III Close to Cameroun
Volcanic Line
12 1985-06-18 21:00 Kombani Yaya IV Kombani Yaya
13 1986- 07-15 10 :45 Obi III Close to Obi town
14 1987-01-27 - Gembu V Close to Cameroun
Volcanic Line
15 1987 - 03-19 - Akko IV Close to Akko
16 1987-05-24 - Kurba III Close to Kurba
village
17 1988-05-14 12:17 Lagos V Close to Lagos
18 1990-06-27 - Ibadan 3.7(ML) Close to Ijebu-Ode
19 1990-04-5 - Jerre V Close to Jerre
Village
20 1994-11-07 05:07:51 Ojebu-Ode 4.2(ML) Dan Gulbi
21 1997 - Okitipupa IV Close to Okitipupa
Ridge
Table 2.6 (Contd.) List of historical/Instrumental earthquakes and tremors felt in Nigeria
S/ Year-Month- Origin Felt Areas Intensity/ Probable Epicentre
N Day Time Magnitude
22 2000-18-15 - Jushi-Kwari III Close to Jushi
Kwari village
23 2000-03 -13 - Benin IV Benin City (55Km
from Benin)
30
24 2000-03-07 15:53:54 Ibadan, Akure, 4.7(ML) Close to Okitipupa
Abeokuta, Ijebu-
Ode, Oyo
25 2000-05-07 11:00 Akure IV Close to Okitipupa
Ridge
26 2001-05-19 - Lagos IV Close to Lagos city
27 2002-08-08 - Lagos IV Lagos city
28 2005-03 - Yola III Close to Cameroun
Volcanic Line
29 2006-03-25 11:20 Lupma III Close to Ifewara-
Zungeru Fault
30 2009-09-11 - Abomey-Calavi II Close to Benin
31 2011-11-05 - Abeokuta 4.4 Close to Abeokuta
32 2016-07-10 Saki 2.5-3 (ML)
33 2016-08-10 Igbogene 2.5-3 (ML)
34 2016-09-11 Kwoi III
35 2016-09-12 Sambang Dagi III
Source: Tsalha et al. (2015) and Premium Times (2016)
2.2 Earthquake Prediction

As earthquake is among the most damaging events caused by the earth itself, in order to
reduce the risk, it is necessary to predict where and when a future large earthquake may
occur. As urbanization advances rapidly worldwide, earthquakes causes a serious threat to
lives and properties. The mitigation of the seismic risk is a complex task, which requires
the cooperation of scientists, engineers and decision makers, and that has to be
approached at different time scales (Narasimha et al., 2014).
Earthquake forecasting and prediction is a vigorous focus area for geological research.
Scientists have not yet come up with a way to forecast earthquake. Although animals are
reputed to have sixth sense when it comes to these vibrations, no research has confirmed
it, much less determined how such predictions might occur. In many cases, animals are
simply sensing the arrival of earthquake waves that go unnoticed by people.
Scientists can identify locations that are likely to experience earthquakes in the future,
however, based on the movements of the plate in the earth and the location of fault zone.
They also can make general guesses about when earthquakes might occur in a certain
area, by looking at the history of earthquake in the region and detecting where pressure is
building along fault lines. But these predictions may not turn out to be reliable because,
31
when strain is released along one part of a fault system, it may actually increase strain on
another part.
Earthquake forces act similarly to sound waves, in the way they propagate through the
soil. They can be produced at different frequencies and at different amplitudes. Large
earthquakes tend to produce larger amplitude, lower frequency seismic waves, whereas
small earthquakes tend to have smaller amplitudes but higher frequency waves. This is,
however, only a generalization, as each earthquake has a variety of complex waveforms
of various amplitudes and frequencies. The damage done to structures depends mostly on
the interaction between soil and structure and how these waves hit the structure. Seismic
waves can move vertically, horizontally, or a combination of both, and can come from
any direction. Higher frequency earthquakes tend to damage shorter, stiffer structures,
and lower frequency earthquakes tend to damage taller, more ductile structures. Buildings
with the same period of a seismic event tend to resonate and be more damaged. Buildings
have a resonant period of about 0.1 second per story, so a 10-story building would have a
resonant period of 1 second.
Earthquake prediction means the accurate forecasting of the place, size and time of an
impending earthquake (Agarwal, 1991). Earthquake prediction is done in three different
time frames assigned by scientist as long term, intermediate and short-term predictions
(Scholz, 2002). Long term predictions are of very limited use for public safety and by this
type of prediction forecasts of earthquake occurrences have not been very accurate.
Intermediate prediction consists of prediction for few weeks to few years, and again
would not be of great practical usefulness. Short term prediction is specific information
of the time and location of an earthquake given within days, weeks, or months and
therefore would be more useful for any kind of public safety and evacuation.
Earthquake prediction is the branch of seismology, which can be done by different
prediction methods. According to Narasimha et al. (2014), animal behaviour, radon
emission and the study of waves have been studied to help in predicting earthquakes.
These and many more theories/studies are discussed below.
i. Animal behaviour (Bhargava et al., 2009): The earthquake prediction can be done
using the abnormal behaviour of animals preceding earthquake occurrence in
32
seismically active region because of their relatively more capability than humans of
perceiving certain kind of geophysical stimuli which may precede earthquake.
ii. Unusual animal behaviour (Ikeya et al., 2000) during the compression of rocks was
observed together with the blood analysis. These EM pulses may be used as early
warning to reduce the accompanying the disaster though the exact time of
earthquakes would still be difficult to predict. Animal behaviour similar to those
induced by pulsed electric field and EM exposures and so by lighting in nature could
be a useful warning to lay citizens in earthquake prone areas even admitting the
difficulties of deterministic earthquake prediction using these EM signals.
iii. Radon as earthquake precursor (Giuseppina and Daniela, 2012): A seismic precursor
is a phenomenon which takes place sufficiently prior to the occurrence of an
earthquake. These precursors are of various kind, such as ground deformation,
changes in sea-level, in tilt and strain and in earth tidal strain, foreshocks, anomalous
seismicity, change in b-value, in micro-seismicity, in earthquake source mechanism,
hypocentre migration, crustal movements, changes in seismic wave velocities, in the
geomagnetic field, in telluric currents, in resistivity, in radon content, in groundwater
level, in oil flow, and so on. These phenomena provide the basis for prediction of the
three main parameters of an earthquake: place and time of occurrence and magnitude
of the seismic event. Measurements of radon gas in soil and in ground water seem to
indicate the radon as a good indicator of crustal activity such as earthquakes. There
are different rocky materials inside the earth which emits certain gases, the amount of
such emission is extremely concentrated and yields spikes when recorded on the
graph during the earthquake.
iv. Study of Waves: Study of p-waves and s-waves helps in predicting earthquake, as
these waves carries earthquake energy. Various parameters can be extracted from
these waves and are to be analysed. When earthquake occurs over a region these
waves are emerged from earth’s core and reaches the earth’s surface. The two
different surface waves; p-waves - travels inside earth in both liquid and solid
interfaces and they are the fastest among all waves, and s-waves - travels in both solid
and liquid interfaces but are slower than p-waves. These surface waves are recorded
to measure the earthquake intensity using a device called seismogram. Seismogram
33
records response of these waves in a visual form called seismographs. Seismic
parameters (Sajjad and Faisal, 2011) such as frequency, wavelength, energy,
magnitude can be extracted from the seismographs.
v. Ustundag et al. (2005) proposed a multi-layer capacitor model of the earth’s upper
crust to explain the behaviour of measurement patterns acquired from network of the
earthquake forecast project. This model indicates that change of dielectric features
due to structural changes, such as liquid dilatancy, requires a change in the electric
field at the surface. Amount of variation is locally independent from the area.
Similarly the patterns between the model based simulations using approximate
parameters and the real data based patterns beside the relatively high correlation
between the anomalies and the earthquakes gives hope for the progress of earthquake
forecast in future. It is possible to modify equivalent circuit model of the multi-layer
capacitor approach with some additional parameters.
vi. Bleier and Freund (2005) claimed that a network of passive sensors (magnetometers)
can be used in EP by using the transient change in earth’s magnetic field prior to
imminent earthquakes. Using the results from laboratory experiments that long
animals such as snake tends to stay vertical to the electric fields in order to decrease
the potential difference on its body.
vii. Tributsch (1982) discovered that numerous observations like including dogs barking,
nervous cats jumping out of windows, birds screaming, rats running out of their holes,
bees swarming exist of animals displaying panic in the few seconds prior to the onset
of strong ground shaking. He observed that some of the behaviours displayed by
animals before earthquake resemble their pre-storm behaviour. He suggested an
electrical link to anomalous behaviour in fish and other aquatic animals before
earthquakes.
viii. Kirschvink (2000) suggests the tilt, hygro-reception (humidity), electric, and
magnetic sensory systems in animals could be linked in to a seismic escape
behavioural system. In terrestrial animals, electrical sensitivity is rather low compared
to marine or fresh-water animals due to the high resistivity of air. High voltages are
perceived through the secondary effects of shock and/or the electrostatic action on
feathers or hairs. In contrast, aquatic animals such as sharks, rays, and some fish often
34
have exquisite electrical sensitivity due to specialized organs used both for
communication and prey location (Bullock, 1982).
ix. Raju et al (2015) obtained seismic signals from USGS (United State Geological
survey), SSA (Seismological Station of America), SCEDC (Southern California
Earthquake Data Centre) and JMA (Japan Metrological Agency). The seismic signals
parameters such as energy, wavelength, frequency and surface wave were analysed by
using HAAR, DB, SYM, COIF, BIOR and RBIO wavelength transform in other to
evaluate the magnitude of the signal. Experimental results concluded that the
extracted parameters, that is, surface wave magnitude is the best attribute in detecting
earthquake. It was discovered that if the surface wave magnitude is ≥ 3, there is
presence of earthquake as it would affect the environment to a greater extent. Table
2.7 below shows the magnitude comparison using wavelength transform where M is
magnitude, ER is experimental results, NE is non-earthquake and E indicates
earthquake.
Table 2.7: Magnitude comparison using wavelength transforms

HAAR DB SYM COIF BIOR RBIO
S/N
M ER M ER M ER M ER M ER M ER
2.9 29.
1 2.96 NE 3.19 E 3.19 E NE NE 2.97 NE
7 7
3.5 3.5
2 3.55 E 3.57 E 3.57 E E E 3.55 E
7 5
3.3 3.3
3 3.38 E 3.37 E 3.37 E E E 3.37 E
8 8
3.0 3.0
4 3.01 E 3.01 E 3.01 E E E 3.01 E
1 1
3.4 3.5
5 3.59 E 3.43 E 3.43 E E E 3.59 E
4 9
35
3.1 2.8
6 3.47 E 3.14 E 3.14 E E NE 2.88 EN
4 8
6.0 3.1
7 3.14 E 5.77 E 3.13 E E E 3.14 E
5 4
5.7 5.7
8 3.44 E 3.45 E 3.45 E E E 5.77 E
7 7
3.4 3.4
9 3.82 E 3.44 E 3.45 E E E 3.45 E
5 4
3.5 3.8
10 3.45 E 3.45 E 3.45 E E E 3.82 E
2 2
3.4 3.4
11 3.82 E 3.48 E 3.44 E E E 3.45 E
5 5
3.5 3.8
12 3.47 E 3.13 E 3.13 E E E 3.82 E
3 2
3.4 3.4
13 2.97 NE 2.83 NE 2.83 NE E E 3.47 E
2 7
2.9 2.9
14 3.15 E 3.02 E 3.02 E NE NE 2.97 NE
4 7
3.0 3.1
15 3.47 E 3.47 E 3.35 E E E 3.15 E
3 5
3.4 3.1
16 3.72 E 3.23 E 3.47 E E E 3.13 E
7 3
6.4 3.6
17 3.13 E 3.23 E 3.23 E E E 3.6 E
6 0
Source: Raju et al. (2015)
Likhitha et al. (2015) obtained seismic signals from USGS (United States Geological
Survey), SSA (Seismological Society of America), SCEDC (Sothern California
Earthquake Data Centre), and JMA (Japan Metrological Agency). The seismic signal
parameters such as energy, frequency, wavelength, surface wave magnitude and rupture
area are extracted using FFT Spectrum analysis in HAAR wavelet and these parametric
values are considered as data set which are analysed and the earthquake is detected based
on the surface wave magnitude of the seismic signal. It was discovered that the
occurrence of earthquake can be predicted if the magnitude exceeds 4.0.
36
2.3 Seismic Forces
When a fault ruptures, it releases a large amount of stored energy. This energy radiates
out from the epicentre, the point on the earth’s surface where the rupture starts. There are
four types of waves. Two of the three are called body waves, which propagate within a
body of rock and radiate out from the epicentre of the earthquake. The two body waves
are P-waves, and S-waves. The third and fourth types of waves are surface waves, the
Love wave and the Rayleigh wave. P-waves, or primary waves, are the fastest waves, and
are compression waves, meaning they have a push and pull type of motion. P-waves act
similarly to sound waves, and move through both solid rock and liquid material. S-waves,
or secondary waves, are shear waves that shear the rock sideways at right angles to its
direction of travel. These waves are slower than P-waves, and cannot travel through
liquid. While P-waves act like sound waves, the S-wave acts more like a sine wave as
shown in Figure 2.7.
37
Figure 2.7: Types of earthquake waves
(http://www.darylscience.com/graphics/seiswave.gif)
When an earthquake occurs, the high-speed P-waves are felt first, in an effect that rattles
windows and can sometimes sound like a sonic boom. The S-waves arrive with a vertical
displacement and a lateral displacement, and are the waves most likely to damage a
building. (Bolt, 2004) The time lag between wave arrivals defines the distance of an
earthquake. The distance from three seismic stations defines the epicentre location.
Surface waves travel near the earth surface.
There are two types of surface wave, the Love wave and the Rayleigh wave. Love waves
have a side-to-side movement along the horizontal plane of the earth’s surface. It has no
vertical displacement, and this horizontal shaking is particularly damaging to a building’s
foundations. The Rayleigh wave acts more like an ocean wave, with an elliptical motion
both vertically and horizontally in a vertical plane in the direction of wave propagation.
These surface waves are usually much slower than the body waves, and in an earthquake,
the first moments of shaking are body waves, followed then by Love waves, which are
faster than Rayleigh waves.
2.3.1 Building reaction to Seismic Forces

Typically, an earthquake can cause four types of damage to a building. A building can
collapse, which can result in the total loss of the building and possibly the lives of the
occupants. A building can suffer structural damage, which leaves the building standing,
but unsafe, and either results in the eventual demolition of the building or expensive
remediation costs to repair the structural damage. A building may also suffer non-
structural damage to walls, water pipes, windows, and so forth. These costs can be
expensive to repair, but are preferable to losing lives. Non-structural damage usually
amounts to over 70 percent of total damage (Schierle, 2003). Lastly, a building might
suffer damage to the contents inside, which result from objects not being properly
anchored to walls or otherwise properly secured.
Engineers and architects hope that a building in a seismically active area would suffer
minimal damage, but of the four types, a designer would prefer cosmetic damage to
structural damage or collapse, in an effort to preserve life safety. Of course, architects
38
would prefer no damage, but due to the nature of seismicity, earthquakes are
unpredictable, vary in terms of magnitude, strength, period, and peak ground
acceleration. No two earthquakes are alike, and the effects of earthquake strength can still
surprise engineers and seismologists (CUS, 1995).
Primarily, architects and engineers are concerned with the lateral forces that earthquakes
generate. The rationale is that structural engineers already design for vertical gravity dead
loads and live loads. Because designers include a safety factor compensate for
unexpected loads in the vertical direction, it is assumed that vertical forces are not
necessarily the problem in an earthquake. Therefore, lateral forces tend to govern
earthquake resistant design in building codes and in practice.
As a note of caution to designers, directly over the epicentre in the Northridge event,
strong vertical acceleration was recorded, and the resulting combination of strong vertical
and lateral forces caused loss of containment in the concrete columns supporting
freeways and buildings.
2.4 Seismic Analysis

Model Analysis is the use of physical or computer models to test shaking or vibration of
an object. Architects and engineers use equations defined by codes to determine the
resonant period of a structure, which is useful to know because a building will suffer the
most physical damage during a seismic event that has the frequency as the resonant
building frequency. If models are used they must have similitude to the actual structure
that is being studied. A model is said to have similitude with an actual structure if it has
similar geometry, dynamic properties, and period. Geometric similarity means that the
model is a scaled down version of the actual building, in the same shape. Dynamic
similarity means that the ratios of all forces acting on the building are consistent.
2.4.1 The Petrolia Earthquake

On April 25, 1992, an earthquake magnitude of around 7.0 main shock near Petrolia,
California, initiated a series of shocks in the Cape Mendocino area. Two additional
shocks of magnitudes 6.6 and 6.7 occurred the next morning. The 1992 Petrolia
earthquake was quite remarkable in that an accelerometer at Cape Mendocino (CAP)
39
recorded a high-frequency pulse of almost 2 g, whereas the nearby (roughly 6 km away)
Petrolia station (PET) recorded a maximum of only 0.6 g (Oglesby and Archulta, 1997).
A California State University–Humboldt (CSUH) cites $60 million as estimate of the
total damages caused by the earthquake (Vranes and pielke, 2009).
2.4.2 The Shake Table

The shake Table is a device that simulates a seismic event. It can also be used to create
fictional “worst case” scenarios or resonant frequencies. In computer controlled shake
tables, a computer program generates a signal, and a digital signal is sent to a
digital/analogue converter, which sends a voltage to the amplifier. The amplifier
amplifies the voltage and sends it to the shaker platform to which the model (building) is
attached. A model on a shake Table with the same stiffness or resonant frequency as the
prototype building, will act in a way similar to that of the actual building. There are
various types of shake Table s, some of which are addressed in this section.
2.4.2.1 The Azalee Shake Table

The AZALEE shaking Table can be considered as a semi-rigid block with a total mass of
25 tons fixed to 8 hydraulic actuators, 4 in the horizontal directions and 4 in the vertical.
The distance between two vertical actuators is 4 m. The distance between 2 horizontal
actuators is 7.06 m. The axes of horizontal actuators are located at 0.52 m below the
upper face of the shaking table (SMART, 2013).
2.4.2.2 Schierle Shake Table

Because architects are primarily concerned with the lateral forces added to a building in a
seismic event, the University of Southern California Chase Leavitt Graduate Building
Science Program has a shake Table to visually analyse the effects of a seismic event to a
building model. The Schierle shake table is a one-degree of motion shake Table, built by
Professor Schierle and students, meaning that it will move only in one lateral direction
(Brown, 2007). Figure 2.8 shows the shake table.
40
Model
building
Figure 2.8: Schierle Shake Table with testing model (Brown, 2007).
2.4.3 Computer Simulation

Engineers can now subject a modelled building to earthquake loads and simulate its
response in other to study its response and failure mechanism to seismicity. Various
computer software applications like CSI SAP2000, CSI ETABS, Midas Gen, StaadPro,
Autodesk Robot and many more can be used to simulate a building under the action of
ground motions. This mode of simulation is far more cheaper and faster than the use of
shake table.
2.4.4 Methods of Seismic Analysis

Structural analysis methods can be divided into the following five categories;
i. Equivalent Static Analysis: this approach defines a series of forces acting on a
building to represent the effect of earthquake ground motion typically defined by
a seismic design response spectrum. It assumes that the building responds in its
fundamental mode. For this to be true, the building must be low rise and must
twist significantly when the ground moves. The response is read from a design
response spectrum, given the natural frequency of the body. To account for effects
41
due to yielding of structures, many codes apply modification factors that reduce
the design factors (for example. force reduction factors).
ii. Response Spectrum Analysis: This approach permits the multiple modes of
response of a building to be taken into account (in the frequency domain). The
response of a structure can be defined as a combination of many special shapes
(modes) that in a vibrating string correspond to the harmonics. Computer analysis
can be used to determine these nodes for a structure. For each mode, a response is
read from the design spectrum, based on the modal frequency and the modal
mass, and they are combined to provide an estimate of the total response of the
structure. In this way, we have to the magnitude of forces in all direction, that is,
x, y, z and see the effects on the building. Combination methods include the
following;
 Absolute – peak values are added together
 Square root of the sum of the squares (SRSS)
 Complete quadratic combination (CQC): A method that is an
improvement on SRSS for closely spaced modes.
The result of a response spectrum analysis using the response spectrum from a
ground motion is typically different from that which would be calculated
directly from a linear dynamic analysis using that ground motion directly
since phase information is lost in the process of generating the response
spectrum. In cases where the structures are either too irregular, too tall or of
significance to a community in disaster response, the response spectrum
approach is no longer appropriate, and more complex analysis is often
required, such as non-linear static analysis or dynamic analysis.
iii. Linear Dynamic Analysis: Static procedures are appropriate when higher effects
are not significant. This is generally true for short, regular building. Therefore, for
tall buildings, buildings with torsional irregularities or non-orthogonal systems, a
dynamic procedure is required. In the linear dynamic procedure, the building is
modelled as a multi-degree of freedom (MDOT) system with a linear elastic
stiffness matrix and an equivalent viscous damping matrix. The seismic input is
modelled using either modal spectral analysis or time history analysis but in both
42
cases, the corresponding internal forces and displacement are determined using
linear elastic analysis. The advantage of these linear dynamic procedures with
respect to linear static procedures is that higher modes can be considered.
However, they are based on linear elastic response and hence applicability
decreases when the increasing non-linear behaviour, which is approximately by
global force reduction factors. In linear dynamic analysis, the response of the
structure to ground motion is calculated in the time domain and all phase
information is therefore maintained. Only linear properties are assumed. The
analytical method can be modal decomposition as a means of reducing the degree
of freedom in the analysis.
iv. Non – Linear Static Analysis: in general, linear procedures are applicable when
the structure is expected to remain nearly elastic for the level of ground motion or
when the design results in nearly uniform distribution of nonlinear response
throughout the structure. As the performance objective of the structure implies
greater inelastic demands, the uncertainty with linear procedures increases to a
point that requires a high level of conservatism in demand assumptions and
acceptability criteria to avoid unintended performance. Therefore, procedures
incorporating inelastic analysis can reduce the uncertainty and conservatism.
This approach is also known as pushover analysis. A pattern of forces is applied to
a structural model that includes non-linear properties (such as steel yield), and the
total force is plotted against a reference displacement to define a capacity curve.
This can then be combined with a demand curve (typically in the form of an
acceleration-displacement response spectrum (ADRS). This essentially reduces
the problem to a single degree of freedom (SDOF) system.
Pushover analysis is the common name of a type of procedures that uses
simplified nonlinear static analysis. A model response spectrum analysis is a
dynamic linear analysis. Modal response spectrum is more suitable for problems
involving the structural design of new structures while pushover analysis is more
indicated for assessing the seismic vulnerability of existing structures. There are
many pushover analysis procedures, for example, ATC 40 capacity spectrum
43
method, the displacement coefficient method (FEMA273) and the N2 method
(Eurocode).
Nonlinear static procedures use equivalent SDOF structural models and represent
seismic ground motion with response spectra. Story drifts and component actions
are related subsequently to the global demand parameter by the pushover or
capacity curves that are the basis of the non-linear static procedures.
v. Non – Linear Dynamic Analysis: Nonlinear dynamic analysis utilizes the
combination of ground motion records with a detailed structural model, therefore
is capable of producing results with relatively low uncertainty. In nonlinear
dynamic analyses, the detailed structural model subjected to a ground-motion
record produces estimates of component deformations for each degree of freedom
in the model and the modal responses are combined using schemes such as the
square-root-sum-of-squares.
In non-linear dynamic analysis, the non-linear properties of the structure are
considered as part of a time domain analysis. This approach is the most rigorous,
and is required by some building codes for buildings of unusual configuration or
of special importance. However, the calculated response can be very sensitive to the
characteristics of the individual ground motion used as seismic input; therefore,
several analyses are required using different ground motion records to achieve a reliable
estimation of the probabilistic distribution of structural response.
2.5 Straw-Bale as a Building Material

Straw is one of the finest renewable building materials available and is found around the
world in abundance. When bundled together into a bale it becomes a solid block that is
highly resistant to decomposition. When assembled together and covered with a plaster
skin, straw bales make a beautiful, strong, energy – efficient and ecologically sound
house.
Straw bales are extremely variable in their type, composition and compressive behaviour
and thus, great care should be taken in considering the contribution that the straw will
make to the performance of a composite plastered straw bale wall assembly (Ajamu and
Adedeji, 2013). Unlike common masonry works which make use of concrete and cement
44
mortars, straw bale construction on the other hand uses a combination of straw, cement,
lime, and in some cases clay. Straws are of different types with the common type includes
maize stalks, elephant grass, corn and sorghum stalks. Ajamu (2013) also highlighted
some advantages of straw bale as a construction material which includes the following;
 Straw bale walls can be built quickly and easily. This and environmental concerns has
fueled some popular enthusiasm for straw bale home construction as it is reported that
straw bales can save around 20% of the wood necessary for the construction of
conventional residences.
 Straw bale provides super insulation, the R-values (defined as the measure of
insulation capacity of material) of walls constructed with straw bales are the double
or triple of traditional homes, making them excellent for both cold and hot climates.
 Straw bales are particularly cheap, since the material is usually considered an
agricultural waste and the wall construction does not require specific skill- it is a Do
It Yourself (DIY) job.
 Straw bale modular nature allows a faster wall construction and a flexible design:
deep windows, deep overhang curves.
 Straw is annually renewable, has low embodied energy and reduces the reliance on
lumber, saving valuable forests.
Straw bale buildings are of special value in areas where earthquakes are common since
straw bales have good width to height ratio and can be easily reinforced (Ashour, 2003).
The straw bale walls absorb much of the shock of the earthquake and the plastering on
the wall adds to the strength of the straw bale building. The material properties of straw
bales; their flexibility and strength, make them ideal for seismic-resistant structural
design.
45
CHAPTER THREE
3.0 METHODOLOGY
This chapter highlights the steps involved in using statistical methods to predict future
earthquake and tremor occurrences in Nigeria and also to model and simulate a three-
story reinforced concrete framed building and a plastered straw bale walled building
using a finite element software called CSI ETABS.
3.1 Collection of Data

This involves the sourcing of relevant data relating to earthquake activities to be used for
this project. The date, intensity and location of past tremor occurrences in Nigeria were
collected and combined from past literatures and news agencies. Table 3.1 shows the list
of the tremor and earthquake felt in Nigeria from 1981 to 2016. The date, time, intensity
and the area where it happened were also included.
Table 3.1: List of historical earthquakes and tremors felt in Nigeria

S/ Year-Month-Day Intensit Magnitud
N y e
1 1933 - -
2 1939 - 6.5
3 1948 - -
4 1961 - -
5 1963 V -
6 1981 III -
7 1982 III -
8 1984 VI -
9 1984 IV -
10 1984 V -
11 1984 III -
46
12 1985 IV -
13 1986 III -
14 1987 V -
15 1987 IV -
16 1987 III -
17 1988 V -
18 1990 - 3.7
19 1990 V -
20 1994 - 4.2
21 1997 IV -
22 2000 III -
23 2000 IV -
24 2000 - 4.7
25 2000 IV -
26 2001 IV -
27 2002 IV -
28 2005 III -
29 2006 III -
30 2009 II -
31 2011 4.4 4.4
32 2016 - 3
33 2016 - 3
34 2016 III -
35 2016 III -
Source: Tsalha et al. (2015) and Premium Times (2016).
3.2 Earthquake Prediction

From past earthquake records in Nigeria, the future tremors occurrences are forecasted
using Microsoft Excel 2016 and Gretl with Eviews statistical software.
47
The number of occurrence yearly and with an interval of 5 years were forecasted. The
minimum intensity for each year was also predicted. To predict the minimum intensity
per year, the magnitude of each occurrence is converted to its intensity. The correlation
between local magnitude ML of an earthquake with intensity I 0 which was provided by
Gutenberg and Ritcher in 1956 is used to convert the local magnitude to its equivalent
MMI intensity form as shown in equation 3.1 (Murty, 2004).
2
M L = I 0+ 1 (3.1)
3
For this equation, the Roman numbers of intensity are therefore replaced with their
corresponding Arabic numerals for their conversion.
3.2.1 Forecasting Using Microsoft Excel 2016
3.2.1.1 Yearly Forecast

Table 3.2 shows the total number of tremors/earthquakes felt in Nigeria from each year
starting from 1981 to 2016.
Table 3.2: Number of earthquakes/tremors felt in Nigeria per year
Timeline Number of Occurrence

1981 1
1982 1
1983 1
1984 4
1985 1
1986 1
1987 3
1988 1
1989 0
1990 2
1991 0
1992 0
1993 0
1994 1
1995 0
1996 0
1997 1
1998 0
48
1999 0
2000 4
2001 1
2002 1
2003 1
2004 1
2005 1
2006 1
2007 0
2008 0
2009 1
2010 0
2011 1
2012 0
2013 0
2014 0
2015 0
2016 4
Launch Microsoft Excel 2016 and input the time series data of Table 3.2. Figure 3.1
shows the time-series data with the number of earthquake occurrence yearly.
Figure 3.1 shows the time-series data of the number of historical tremor and earthquake
occurences in Nigeria from 1981 to 2016.
49
Figure 3.1: Time-series data with the number of earthquake occurrence yearly
From the data tab, click on “forecast sheet”. Figure 3.2 shows the interface of the
workspace for creating a forecast.
Figure 3.2: The forecast sheet in excel
The “Forecast End” is set to 2030 and the “Forecast Start” is set to 2016. Confidence
interval is left as 95% and a seasonality value of 10 is set.
Then click on “create” as shown in Figure 3.3. This display the forecast in graph and also
in a tabular form as the output.
50
Figure 3.3: The forecast sheet of yearly earthquake occurrence in excel 2016 with
parameters
It should be noted that the timeline is taken to be within a year. For example, 01/01/81
which represents the year 1981 is assumed to be from January to December of the year.
The day and month are negligible. The year is the only criteria considered as the day and
month are not predicted.
3.2.1.2 Five-Years Forecast

A five-year interval forecast is also done using past data from 1981 to 2016 for the
forecast. A confidence interval of 95% and a seasonality value of 11 is used. Figure 3.4
shows the Excel interface with time-series data with the number of earthquake occurrence
in 5-year intervals from 1981 to 2016.
Figure 3.5 shows the Worksheet of Excel for earthquake prediction for 5years intervals
from 2017 to 2030.
51
Figure 3.4: Time-series data with the number of earthquake occurrence in 5-year intervals
Figure 3.6 shows the forecast worksheet of Excel for earthquake prediction for 5yr
intervals from 2017 to 2030.
Figure 3.5: Microsoft Excel forecast worksheet for prediction from 2017 to 2030
52
Figure 3.6: Worksheet of Earthquake/Tremor Prediction for 5-year intervals from 2017 to
2030
Then, click on “create” to create the forecast.
3.2.1.3 Yearly Intensity Forecast

For the minimum intensity per year till 2030, a 95% confidence interval and a value of 11
for the seasonality is used for the forecast. This is done by following the steps as in the
case of Figure 3.1 to Figure 3.6. Figure 3.7 shows the visual forecast worksheet of
Microsoft Excel for prediction of the minimum tremor/earthquake occurrence from the
year 2017 to 2030.
53
Figure 3.7: Worksheet of earthquake/tremeor prediction for minimum intensity from 2017
to 2030.
3.2.2 Forecasting Using Gretl and Eviews

The time series data are analysed using Eviews and further forecast using Gretl. This is
done as a means of validation for the earlier forecasted occurences.
Launch the Eviews package, then select import from the file tab to import the earthquake
data which was already saved in an Excel format. Figure 3.8 shows the graphical
interface of Eviews with the time series tremor/earthquake historical data
54
Figure 3.8: Workspace of Eviews with the time series earthquake/tremor data
To check the correlogram, click variables on the home page and select correlogram, set
maximum lag to 7. Then click on “Estimate Equation” using the EQ C AR(1) MA(1)
format. Where EQ stands for Earthquake, C is Constant, AR is Autoregressive and MA
stands for Moving Average. This was done till it reaches 7 by changing the changing the
Autoregressive value and moving average value with 1 and 2 with the function ARMA
(p,q). That is ARMA (7,7). The least value gives the best model. Figure 3.9 shows the
interface of the ARMA series for estimating equation.
Figure 3.9: Interface for the equation estimation
55
The first step in this stage is plotting the residuals of the yearly earthquake series values.
If the model fits well, the standardized residuals should behave as an identically and
independently distributed sequence with mean zero and variance one.
The time plot should be inspected for any clear departures from this assumption.
Equation 4.2 gives the general ARMA (Autho-Regressive Moving Average) model.
X t =φ X t− p +ε t −θ ε t−q (3.2)
Equation 4.2 can further be expressed by;
X t =φ X t−1 +φ X t −2+ φ X t −3 + φ X t−4 + φ X t −5+ φ X t −6 + φ X t −7 + ε t −θ ε t −1−θ ε t −2−θ ε t −3−θ ε t −4 −θ ε t −5 −θ ε t −6−

(3.3)
The Gretl software was launched and the earthquake data was imported into it from the
file menu. That is, click on “file” from the menu, select “import” and browse through the
data (file already saved in Excel format) and select “ok”. Figure 3.10 shows the interface
for Gretl with the imported historical earthquake/tremor occurrence in Nigeria.
Figure 3.10: Gretl loaded with earthquake records
Figure 3.11 shows the imported historical number of earthquake/tremor occurences

Nigeria.
56
Figure 3.11: Earthquake data (number of occurrence) imported into Gretl
To generate the model equation, from the home interface, select “model” and click on
“Time Series”, then select “ARIMA”. Make the dependent variable and input 7 into the
AR order and also 7 for the MA order. Then click on ok to display the model (coefficient,
alpha and gamma) for the forecast equation that was generated in equation 2. Figure 3.12
shows the Gretl interface for the model coefficient generation.
Figure 3.12: Interface for the model coefficient generation
57
After getting the coefficients, standard errors, z and p-value, go to analysis on the model
interface and click on forecast to show the predicted values. This is done to make a
projection into the future from its past values on the basis of a model that effectively
describe the evolution of a series.
3.3 Seismic Analysis of the Building

The performance of a 3-storey building (frame building) and 1-storey plastered straw-
bale walled building are analysed using response spectrum analysis and its behaviour is
studied and compared to its time history analysis result. CSI Etabs 2015 version 15.0.0 is
used. The plan view and elevation of the reinforced concrete building are shown in Figure
3.13. The three-storey building has a roof deck at the top.
Figure 3.13: Plan and elevation of the three-storey reinforce concrete building
Figure 3.14 shows the plan and elevation of the modelled plastered straw-bale walled
building. The top of the building is covered with a roof deck.
58
Figure 3.14: Plan and elevation of the modelled plastered straw-bale walled building.
3.3.1 Material Property Definition

Material properties such as modulus of elasticity, density, poisson’s ratio, coefficient of
thermal expansivity, shear modulus, compressive strength (concrete) were modelled in
this research work. The properties of the material in Table 3.3 were used for the analysis
based on the properties of the concrete building and also for the plastered straw-bale wall
building. The mix ratio of the cement plaster used for this modelling was 1:6 as
referenced in Table 3.3.
Table 3.3: Material properties
Material Property Value Source

Compressive Strength (N/mm2) 25
Density (KN/m3) 24 Asiz and Ahmed
Concrete
Modulus of Elasticity (KN/m2) 31000 (2013)
Poisson Ratio 0.2
Density (KN/m3) 22.3
Straw-bale Modulus of Elasticity (KN/m2) 22990 Bruce (2003)
Poisson Ratio 0.3
Density (KN/m3) 19
Cement Plaster Modulus of Elasticity (KN/m2) 20250 Ashour (2003)
Poisson Ratio 0.2
Density (KN/m3) 400
Laminated Cross Asiz and Ahmed
Modulus of Elasticity (KN/m2) 9000
Timber (2013)
Poisson Ratio 0.3
59
Figure 3.15 shows the interface for the material properties of concrete. In the interface,
the weight per unit volume of the concrete, the modulus of elasticity, poisson’s ratio,
coefficient of thermal expansion, shear modulus and the concrete strength were defined.
Figure 3.15: Interface for material property data for concrete
Figure 3.16 shows the material definition interface for straw-bale. The straw was
modelled as an isotropic material.
60
Figure 3.16: Interface for material property data for straw-bale
The material definition interface of cement plaster which was used for the plastering of
the straw-bale wall is displayed in Figure 3.17.
Figure 3.17: Interface for material property data for cement plaster
3.3.2 Member Section Definitions

A concrete column size of 300mm x 300mm was modelled as a frame section as shown in
Figure 3.18. A cement plastered straw-bale wall with a total section of 225mm was also
modelled. This wall is modelled as “layered” because of the combination of cement
plaster and straw-bale.
61
Figure 3.18: Material property data for the concrete columns
The straw-bale takes up a thickness of 195 mm while the cement plaster is 15 mm thick
on both sides as shown in Figure 3.19.
Figure 3.19: Wall property definition for the plastered straw-bale wall
62
Figure 3.20 shows a section of the plastered straw-bale wall. The straw-bale covers about
87% of the total volume of the wall (195 mm) while the cement plaster which covers the
straw bale on both sides is of 15 mm thickness on both faces to make 30 mm (about 13%
of the volume).
Cement
Plaster
Straw bale
195 mm
15 mm 15 mm
Figure 3.20: The section of the plastered straw bale wall
The section of the concrete beam was defined as shown in Figure 3.21 using a rectangular
beam section of 450 x 230 mm.
Figure 3.21: Material property definition for the concrete beam of the framed building
63
A slab thickness of 150mm was used. The interface for modelling the slab section is
shown in Figure 3.22. The concrete slab is used for the framed concrete building.
Figure 3.22: Definition of slab section
A cross Laminated Timber of thickness 150 mm is used for the floor and roof of the
plastered straw-bale walled building
3.3.3 Modelling and Loading

Figure 3.23 shows the 3-D view of the three-storey reinforced concrete building.
64
Figure 3.23: 3-dimensional view of the modelled cocrete building
Figure 3.24 shows the 3-D view of the plastered straw-bale walled building modelled.
Figure 3:24: 3-dimensional view of the modelled plastered straw-bale walled building
Figure 3.25 shows the load patterns that were defined and used for this work.
Figure 3.25: Load patterns of the buildings
65
Figure 3.26 shows the interface of the frame load assignment for the beam load
assignment. The beams of the concrete framed building were loaded with a frame load of
9 kN/m which caters for the wall load.
Figure 3.26: Frame load assignment for the beam of the reinforced concrete frame
building
The slab is assigned a uniform shell load of 2 kN/m 2 as the live load. The roof deck is
assigned a live load of 0.75 kN/m 2. Figure 3.27 shows the interface of the shell load
assignment.
66
Figure 3.27: Shell load assignment for the concrete slab
The wind parameters were defined based on the specifications in Eurocode 1 (EN 1991-
1-4:2005) as shown in Figure 3.28 with the wind velocity as 26 m/s.
Figure 3.28: Wind load pattern definition
The wind was assigned to the building and the coefficient of wind pressure windward
(varies) as -0.8 and Leeward or sides (constant) as -0.5 as shown in Figure 3.29.
67
Figure 3.29: Shell load for wind pressure coefficient
3.3.3.1 Response Spectrum

Response spectrum analysis are typically used for performing seismic analysis. It
calculates the maximum response values in each modes of a structure from a response
curve and then combines these responses using modal superposition. Since a building
response is not made up of a single mode but the response of many modes, the response
from many modes must be combined. Combining the modes takes statistical approaches
like Square Root Sum of the Square (SRSS), Complete Quadratic Combination (CQC),
Absolute sum, General Modal Combination (GMC).
Eurocode 8, (EN 1998-1:2005) Clause 3.2.2.2, gives the elastic response spectrum Se(T)
of the horizontal components of the seismic action as follows,
0 ≤T ≤T B : Se (T )=ag . S . 1+
[ T
TB
(η 2.5−1)
] (3.4)
T B ≤T ≤ T C : S e ( T ) =a g S η 2.5 (3.5)
T C ≤ T ≤T C :S e ( T )=a g S η2.5 [ ]
TC
T
(3.6)
68
T D ≤T ≤ 4 s :S e ( T )=ag S η2.5
[ ]
T CTD
T
2 (3.7)
Where
Se (T ) is the elastic response spectrum;
T is the vibration period of a linear single-degree-of-freedom system;
ag is the design ground acceleration on type A ground;
TB is the lower limit of the period of the constant spectral acceleration branch;
TC is the upper limit of the period of the constant spectral acceleration branch;
TD is the value defining the beginning of the constant displacement response

range of the spectrum;
S is the soil factor;
η is the damping correction factor with a reference value of η = 1 for 5%

viscous damping.
Figure 3.30: Shape of the elastic response spectrum
69
The values of the periods TB, TC and TD and of the soil factor S describing the shape of the
elastic response spectrum depend upon the ground type.
Therefore, according to Eurocode 8;
Behavior Factor, q 1.5

Damping Ratio 0.05
Ground Acceleration, ag/g 0.31288m/s2
Ground Type C
Spectrum Type 2
S 1.5
TB(S) 0.05
TC(S) 0.25
TD(S) 1.2
Figure 3.31 shows the interface of the response spectrum parameters definition according
to Eurocode standard. Figure 3.31shows the interface of the load case for response
spectrum.
Figure 3.31: Response spectrum definition
70
The interface for the definition of the various load cases like dead, live, wind and
response spectrum to be used for the analysis was shown in Figure 3.32.
Figure 3.32: Load cases of dead, live, wind and response spectrum
Figure 3.33 shows the interface of the load case for response spectrum.
Figure 3.33: Load case data definition for response spectrum
71
3.3.3.2 Time History
Cape Mendocino earthquake (Petrolia earthquake) with magnitude of about 6.6 to 6.7
which was recorded in 1992 was used as the historical earthquake load. The earthquake
record span for a period of 60 seconds. Figure 3.34 shows the interface of the Petrolia
earthquake loading and accelerogram.
Figure 3.34: Petrolia earthquake loading and accelerogram
In Running the Analysis, the load cases of the earthquake functions were set differently
and not combined. The response spectrum analysis of the building was done considering
the lateral and horizontal loadings of the building as shown in Figure 3.32. The same is
also done for the time history function by merging it with the horizontal and lateral
loadings of the building as shown in Figure 3.33. Figure 3.35 shows the load case data for
the time history load (Petrolia earthquake) applied on the building.
72
Figure 3.35: Load case data for the time history function
3.3.4 Damage Limitations

The damage limitation requirement should be verified in terms of the inter-storey drift
(dr) (EN 1998-1/4.4.3.2) using equation
dr α
d r . v ≤ α . h⟹ ≤ (3.8)
h v
Storey drift dr is evaluated as the difference of the average lateral displacements ds in CM

at the top and bottom of the storey (EN 1998-1/4.4.2.2(2)). In EN 1998, it is not defined
how the “average” value should be calculated. Note, storey drifts have to be determined
for each vibration mode and combined according to a combination rule. For example,
CQC. h is the storey height. v is the reduction factor which takes into account the lower
return period of the seismic action associated with the damage limitation requirement. It
depends on the importance class of the building.
Test building is classified as importance class II (EN 1998-1/Table 4.3) and the
corresponding reduction factor v amounts to 0.5 (EN 1998-1/4.4.3.2(2)). α is factor
73
which takes into account the type of the non-structural elements and their arrangements
into the structure. It amounts to 0.005, 0.0075 and 0.01 (EN 1998-1, equations 4.31, 4.32
and 4.33) as shown in equation 3.9 to 3.11.
a) for buildings having non-structural elements of brittle materials attached to the

structure: d r v ≤ 0.005 h; (3.9)
b) for buildings having ductile non-structural elements: d r v ≤ 0.0075 h; (3.10)
c) for buildings having non-structural elements fixed in a way so as not to interfere
with structural deformations, or without non-structural elements:
d r v ≤ 0.010 h
(3.11)
74
CHAPTER FOUR
4.0 RESULTS AND DISCUSSION

4.1 Earthquake Forecasting
The past earthquake records are used to predict the future occurrence using Microsoft
Excel. To validate this result, Gretel is used to analyse the data and E-views is used to
forecast the future occurrences.
4.1.1 Forecasting Using Microsoft Excel

Figure 4.1 shows the forecast of the number of tremor occurrence annually from 2017 to
2030 by using historical records. The statistical parameters for the forecast are included
in Appendix B.
2
f(x) = - 0.07x + 2
R² = 0.21
0
-2
-4
81 83 85 87 89 91 93 95 97 99 01 03 05 07 09 11 13 15 17 19 21 23 25 27 29
/ 19 /19 /19 /19 /19 /19 /19 /19 /19 /19 /20 /20 /20 /20 /20 /20 /20 /20 /20 /20 /20 /20 /20 /20 /20
1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1
1/ 1/ 1/ 1/ 1/ 1/ 1/ 1/ 1/ 1/ 1/ 1/ 1/ 1/ 1/ 1/ 1/ 1/ 1/ 1/ 1/ 1/ 1/ 1/ 1/
Va l ues Foreca st Li near (Forecast)

Lower Confidence Bound Upper Confidence Bound
No of Occurrence
Figure 4.1: Annual forecast of the number of tremor occurrence from 1981 to 2030
The series “forecast” trendline equation for the annual tremor occurrence is
y=0.0132 x+ 2 as shown in Figure 4.1. Table 4.1 shows the yearly forecast with the
lower confidence bound and upper confidence bound which were used for the forecast
Timeline
from 2016 to 2030.
75
Table 4.1: Yearly forecast for the number of tremor occurrence
Timeline Values Forecast Lower Confidence Bound Upper Confidence Bond
2016 4 4 4.00 4.00
2017 2.420625 0.08 4.76
5
2018 0.901750 -1.51 3.32
8
2019 0.481997 -2.00 2.97
5
2020 3.456684 0.90 6.01
5
2021 0.316782 -2.31 2.94
9
2022 0.443352 -2.25 3.14
8
2023 0.471885 -2.29 3.23
1
2024 1.400882 -1.42 4.23
7
2025 0.778048 -2.11 3.67
4
2026 0.736319 -2.22 3.69
8
2027 2.208792 -0.81 5.22
7
2028 0.689918 -2.39 3.77
2029 0.270164 -2.87 3.41
7
2030 3.244851 0.05 6.44
8
This shows that a lot of tremor occurrences are expected in the future with at least one
tremor occurrence should be expected each year. The prominent years being around 2017,
2020, 2027 and 2030 since they have a high forecasted number of occurrence (more than
two).
4.1.1.2 Five years Interval Forecast

Figure 4.2 is a graph showing the trend and forecast for the number of tremor occurrence
for 5 years’ intervals from 1981 to 2030.
76
20
15
No of Occurrence
10
5 f(x) = 0.22x + 4.36

R² = 0.14
Timeline
-5
-10
1/1/1981 1/1/1986 1/1/1991 1/1/1996 1/1/2001 1/1/2006 1/1/2011 1/1/2016 1/1/2021 1/1/2026 1/1/2030
Figure 4.2: 5 years forecast of the number of tremor occurrence from 1981 to 2030
The equation of the series “forecast” trendline for the occurrence within the interval of 5
years is y=0.2177 x +2.8376 .
Table 4.2 is a forecast of the number of tremor/earthquake to occur for an interval of 5

years from 2016 to 2030.
Table 4.2: 5 years forecast for the number of tremor occurrence from 2016 to 2030

2016 4 4 4.00 4.00
2021 5.3140946 -3.08 13.70
2026 5.7150484 -2.94 14.37
2030 4.5918554 -4.27 13.45
4.1.1.3 Intensity Per Year

Figure 4.3 is a graph showing the trend and forecast of the tremor/earthquake intensity
per year from 1981 to 2030. The historical tremor occurrence from 1981 to 2016 is
shown in blue colour while the forecast from 2017 to 2030 is shown in pink colour.
77
Intensity
12
10
8
6
4
2 f(x) = - 0.08x + 3
R² = 0.17
0
-2
-4
Timeline
-6
81 83 85 87 89 91 93 95 97 99 01 03 05 07 09 11 13 15 17 19 21 23 25 27 29
/ 19 /19 /19 /19 /19 /19 /19 /19 /19 /19 /20 /20 /20 /20 /20 /20 /20 /20 /20 /20 /20 /20 /20 /20 /20
1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1
1/ 1/ 1/ 1/ 1/ 1/ 1/ 1/ 1/ 1/ 1/ 1/ 1/ 1/ 1/ 1/ 1/ 1/ 1/ 1/ 1/ 1/ 1/ 1/ 1/

Figure 4.3: Forecast for the yearly tremor intensity
The equation of the series “forecast” trendline for the annual tremor intensity to occur is
y = 0.0201x + 1.5.
Note: The Arabic numerals of intensity are replaced with their corresponding Roman
numbers for the intensity. Table 4.3 shows the forecast for the tremor/earthquake intensity
per year from 2017 to 2030.
Table 4.3: Forecast for the intensity of tremor occurrence per year from 2016 to 2030
2016 4 4 4.00 4.00
2017 4.1735649 -0.14 8.49
2018 0.1163162 -4.34 4.57
2019 0.1289872 -4.46 4.71
2020 5.1925883 0.48 9.91
2021 4.1992763 -0.64 9.04
2022 4.2066818 -0.76 9.17
2023 0.4032868 -4.69 5.49
2024 1.5071963 -3.70 6.72
2025 3.364451 -1.96 8.69
2026 3.1569131 -2.29 8.60
2027 1.114152 -4.45 6.67
2028 0.9788564 -4.70 6.65
2029 1.5512139 -4.24 7.34
78
2030 2.2118959 -3.69 8.11
This shows that an earthquake of an intensity of about IV on the MMI scale is expected in
the year 2017, 2021 and 2022, and also in the year 2020, an intensity of about V is
expected. In the year 2018 and 2019, there’s high probability of an intensity which is
negligible.
4.1.2 Forecasting Using Gretl
The data for the number of tremor/earthquake occurrence was also analysed using Eviews
and forecasted using Gretl as a means of validation.
Figure 4.4 shows the time plot of the earthquake/tremor incidents in Nigeria between the
year 1981 and 2015 using Eviews.
4
EARTHQUAKE_NIGE
0
1985 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015
79
Figure 4.4: Time plot of tremor incidents in Nigeria between the year 1981 and 2015
The stationary test and unit root test result is included in appendix C.
4.1.2.1 Estimation of Parameters

The parameter of the autoregressive moving average model identified in the
autocorrelation function (ACF) and partial autocorrelation function (PACF) as shown in
appendix B is then estimated. The AIC values are generated and out of the AIC values
generated, the order of p, q that gives the least AIC and BIC value gives the best ARMA
(p, q) model.
Table 4.4 shows the model identification of the p,q model using AIC and BIC criteria.
The best model as reported by the AIC and BIC criteria are asterisked (*). AIC is Akaike
Information Criterion and BIC is the Schwarz Criterion, S.E is Standard Error of regression
while LOGL is Log likelihood.
Table 4.4: Model identification using AIC and BIC criteria
S/N p,q AIC BIC S.E LOGL

1 1,1 4.246893 4.336678 1.965991 -70.19717
2 1,2 4.718210 4.807996 2.488438 -78.20957
3 2,1 4.676014 4.766712 2.434455 -75.15424
4 2,2 4.668656 4.759354 2.425515 -75.03283
5 1,3 4.627639 4.717425 2.378262 -76.66987
6 3,1 4.583482 4.675091 2.322332 -71.33572
7 2,3 4.648363 4.739060 2.401028 -74.69798
8 3,2 4.601640 4.693249 2.343512 -71.62624
9 3,3 4.013242 4.104850 1.746217 -62.21187
10 4,1 4.655353 4.747868 2.405043 -70.15797
11 1,4 4.648085 4.737871 2.402700 -77.01745
12 4,2 4.659480 4.751995 2.410010 -70.22194
13 2,4 4.665678 4.756376 2.421906 -74.98369
14 4,3 4.592666 4.685181 2.330829 -69.18632
15 3,4 4.535164 4.626773 2.266899 -70.56263
80
16 4,4 4.176261 4.268776 1.892733 -62.73205
17 5,1 4.701966 4.795379 2.459294 -68.52949
18 1,5 4.700586 4.790371 2.466606 -77.90995
19 5,2 4.717205 4.810618 2.478104 -68.75808
20 2,5 4.732558 4.823256 2.504264 -76.08721
21 5,3 4.649663 4.743077 2.395814 -67.74495
22 3,5 4.588054 4.679663 2.327647 -71.40887
23 5,4 4.644707 4.738120 2.389883 -67.67060
24 4,5 4.654007 4.746522 2.403424 -70.13710
25 5,5 4.249764 4.343177 1.961625 -61.74646
26 6,1 4.574304 4.668601 2.304763 -64.32741
27 1,6 4.632139 4.721925 2.383619 -76.74637
28 6,2 4.594764 4.689060 2.328460 -64.62407
29 2,6 4.681118 4.771816 2.440675 -75.23845
30 6,3 4.561877 4.656173 2.290485 -64.14721
31 3,6 4.596876 4.688484 2.337936 -71.55001
32 6,4 4.569410 4.663706 2.299129 -64.25644
33 4,6 4.654440 4.746955 2.403944 -70.14382
34 6,5 4.591430 4.685726 2.324583 -64.57574
35 5,6 4.673715 4.767128 2.424799 -68.10572
36 6,6 4.055301 4.149597 1.777977 -56.80187
37 7,1 4.665512 4.760670 2.409557 -63.31717
38 1,7 4.700991 4.790777 2.467106 -77.91685
39 7,2 4.672150 4.767307 2.417567 -63.41010
40 2,7 4.728921 4.819618 2.499713 -76.02719
41 7,7 3.825965* 3.921123* 1.583551 -51.56351
The ARMA (7,7) gives the best model since it has the lowest value of AIC and BIC.
The ARMA (7,7) model for the earthquake/tremor in Nigeria with its coefficient, standard
Error and other parameters are shown in Table 4.5.
Table 4.5: ARMA (7, 7) model for the tremor data
81
Variable Coefficient Std. Error t-Statistic Prob.
AR(7) 0.502212 0.141080 3.559769 0.0015

MA(7) -0.822891 0.105914 -7.769423 0.0000
4.1.2.2 Model
R-squared 0.412438 Mean dependent var 1.535714
Adjusted R-squared 0.389839 S.D. dependent var 2.027261
S.E. of regression 1.583551 Akaike info criterion 3.825965
Sum squared resid 65.19844 Schwarz criterion 3.921123
Log likelihood -51.56351 Hannan-Quinn criter. 3.855056
Durbin-Watson stat 1.599126
Generation
Figure 4.5 is an interface of Gretl showing the model coefficients of the prediction
equation in equation 4.1 and 4.2. These coefficients were used to generate the model in
equation 4.3.
Figure 4.5: Model coefficients for the model
The model that was generated in chapter 3 was used as the forecast model.
82
X t =φ X t− p +ε t −θ ε t−q (4.1)
Equation 4.1 can further be expressed by

X t =φ X t−1 +φ X t −2+ φ X t −3 + φ X t−4 + φ X t −5+ φ X t −6 + φ X t −7 + ε t −θ ε t −1−θ ε t −2−θ ε t −3−θ ε t −4 −θ ε t −5 −θ ε t −6−
(4.2)
By inserting the coefficients to the model gives equation 3.
^
X t =1.75010+0.287748 X t −1−0.625977 X t −2+ 0.0563347 X t−3−0.392747 X t− 4+ 0.00248194 X t −5+ 0.143428
(4.3)
The result of the forecast for the number of tremor occurrence from 2016 to 2025 using
time series model is shown in Table 4.6. The standard error and confidence intrval is also
shown. Figure 4.6 shows the trend and forecast for the number of historical occurrence
and future occurrence.
Table 4.6: Forecast for the number of tremor occurrence yearly from 2016 to 2025
Year Forecast Standard 95% interval

error
201 0.858286 1.62366 (-2.32402, 4.04059)
6
201 1.94582 1.62366 (-1.23649, 5.12813)
7
201 1.00110 1.62790 (-2.18952, 4.19172)
8
201 - 1.64435 (-4.11448, 2.33126)
9 0.891610
202 1.50956 1.70561 (-1.83337, 4.85249)
0
202 2.38460 1.71222 (-0.971283,
1 5.74048)
202 1.39741 1.73469 (-2.00252, 4.79734)
2
202 2.84798 1.74258 (-0.567418,
3 6.26338)
202 2.18311 1.76456 (-1.27537, 5.64158)
4
202 0.997758 1.78427 (-2.49934, 4.49486)
83
5
8
EQ
forecast
95 percent interval
No of Occurrence
4
-2
-4
-6
2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025
Timeline
Figure 4.6: Forecasting graph using univariate time series model
The forecast shows that a minimum of two tremor occurrences are expected in the year
2017, 2020, 2021, 2023 and 2024 while there is a high likelihood that no tremor will
occur in the year 2019.
Therefore, from the result obtained from both Excel and Gretl, it is observed that various
cases of tremor occurrences should be expected from the year 2017 to 2030 with a
minimum number of two in the year 2017, 2020, 2027 and 2030 respectively. An
earthquake with intensity of about IV to VI on the MMI scale is expected to occur in the
year 2017, 2020, 2021 and 2022.
4.2 Seismic Analysis

The storey response plot for maximum displacement, drift, stiffness, shear, pseudo
spectral acceleration per period for the base and all the storeys of the buildings are shown
in appendix D.
84
4.2.1 Reinforced Concrete Building
The three-storey reinforced concrete building were subjected to response spectrum and
time history method of seismic analysis.
4.2.1.1 Response Spectrum Analysis

The reaction at the base of the 3 storey reinforced concrete building due to the dead load,
live load, wind and the response spectrum load is recorded in Table 4.7.
Table 4.7: Base reactions of the reinforced concrete building
Load FX FY FZ MX MY MZ
Case kN kN kN kN-m kN-m kN-m
Dead 0 0 16272.665 120883.103 -129081 -0.0033

4 3
Live 0 0 3072 23039.3049 - -0.0016
24574.3115
Wind -144.9937 0 0 -0.04 -988.6531 1087.4905
RS Max 4522.328 4521.713 6.999 41126.0559 41141.6213 51538.551
5 4 6
Table 4.8 shows the maximum vertical displacement of the three-storey reinforced
concrete building under the action of the response spectrum analysis in both the x and y
direction. The maximum storey displacement of the building is 162.9mm and it occurs at
the top of the building.
Table 4.8: Storey response (displacement) of the reinforced concrete building
Story Elevatio Locatio X-Dir Y-Dir

n n
m mm Mm
Story4 12 Top 162.9 160.1
Story3 9 Top 141.5 138.8
Story2 6 Top 101.5 99.6
Story1 3 Top 47.8 47.2
Base 0 Top 0 0
85
The maximum drift for each storey under the earthquake load which occur at top of each
storey in both the x and y direction as shown in Table 4.9. The maximum drift of the
building is at the 2nd storey and has a value of 0.018 mm.
Table 4.9: Storey response (drifts) of the reinforced concrete building
Story Elevation Location X-Dir Y-Dir
m
Story4 12 Top 0.007377667 0.007321624
Story3 9 Top 0.013519887 0.013261914
Story2 6 Top 0.018058708 0.017616862
Story1 3 Top 0.016007143 0.015802485
Base 0 Top 0 0
Table 4.10 shows the response of the building in direction of x and y under the action of
wind load. The building has a maximum displacement of 3.7 mm at the top.
Table 4.10: Storey displacement under wind load (reinforced concrete)

m mm Mm
Story4 12 Top 3.7 0.1
Story3 9 Top 3.4 0.1
Story2 6 Top 2.6 0.1
Story1 3 Top 1.3 0.0400
3
Base 0 Top 0 0
The storey stiffness of the building is shown in Table 4.11. The maximum stiffness occurs
at the lowest storey.
Table 4.11: Reinforced concrete storey response (stiffness)
86
m kN/m kN/m
Story4 12 Top 78683.279 80115.099
Story3 9 Top 79206.318 81598.552
Story2 6 Top 78924.496 81753.675
Story1 3 Top 100360.232 102674.065
Base 0 Top 0 0
For damage limitations, It can be seen that the most severe drift limit ( d r v ≤ 0.005 h ,
for building having non-structural elements of brittle materials attached to the structure)
is not exceeded in any storey. For the maximum storey drift in storey 2, 0.0092 is less
than 0.015.
4.2.1.2 Time History Analysis

The reaction at the base of the 3 storey reinforced concrete building due to the dead load,
live load, wind and under the Petrolia earthquake is shown in Table 4.12.
Table 4.12: Base reactions of the reinforced concrete building under the Petrolia
Earthquake
Load Case FX FY FZ MX MY MZ
kN kN kN kN-m kN-m kN-m
Dead 0 0 16272.6654 120883.103 -129081 -0.0033
Live 0 0 3072 23039.3049 -24574.3115 -0.0016
Wind -144.9937 0 0 -0.04 -988.6531 1087.4905
Time History 1187.0738 1277.1498 2.9523 10140.9621 10055.4088 12526.9144
Max
Time History - - -2.9867 -10008.934 -9949.2391 -12469.972
Min 1204.2745 1269.1119
Table 4.13 shows the maximum vertical displacement of the 3-storey reinforced concrete
building under the action of the Petrolia earthquake in both the x and y direction. The
maximum storey displacement of the building is at the top of the building with a value of
38.3 mm.
87
Table 4.13: Storey response (displacement) of the concrete building under the Petrolia
earthquake

m Mm mm
Story4 12 Top 37 38.3
Story3 9 Top 32.6 32.3
Story2 6 Top 23.6 24.5
Story1 3 Top 11.2 12.3
Base 0 Top 0 0
The maximum drift for each storey under the Petrolia earthquake occur at top of each
storey in both the x and y direction as shown in Table 4.14. The maximum drift of the
building is at the 2nd storey and has a value of 0.0043 mm.
Table 4:14: Storey drift for the Petrolia earthquake

m
Story4 12 Top 0.001941972 0.002159267
Story3 9 Top 0.00321677 0.003454049
Story2 6 Top 0.004266177 0.004508023
Story1 3 Top 0.003671643 0.004047885
Base 0 Top 0 0
The shear on each storey of the reinforced concrete building is shown in Table 4.15. The
maximum storey shear is at the lowest storey.
Table 4.15: Storey shears of the concrete building under the Petrolia earthquake

m kN kN
Story4 12 Top -486.9693658 -513.185236
Bottom 497.1575092 522.1029487
Story3 9 Top -802.202491 -816.662009
88
Bottom 788.709376 821.2842737
Story2 6 Top -1082.315747 -1100.075565
Bottom 1081.00817 1098.258074
Story1 3 Top -1179.372764 -1231.239545
Bottom 1173.639088 1233.849018
Base 0 Top 0 0
Bottom 0 0
4.2.2 Plastered Straw-bale Walled Building

The response of the modelled plastered straw-bale building when subjected to both the
earthquake analysis of response spectrum and time history is documented. The storey
response plots of the building were documented in the appendix D.
4.2.2.1 Response Spectrum Analysis

The reaction at the base of the plastered straw-bale building due to the dead load, live
load, wind and response spectrum earthquake is shown in Table 4.16.
Table 4.16: Base reactions for the plastered straw-bale building
Load FX FY FZ MX MY MZ
Case kN kN kN kN-m kN-m kN-m
Dead 0 0 9364.729 68717.653 - 0.0008
9 9 73296.524
Live 0 0 1536 11520.0043 - 0.0003
12288.003
Wind 11.6047 0 0 -0.0001 35.538 -20.7227
RS Max 3.8625 10.858 44.3143 381.8817 497.0268 125.550
2 9
89
The displacement of the plastered straw-bale walled building is shown in Table 4.17. The
maximum storey displacement of the building occurs at the top of the building with a
displacement of 0.0011 mm when subjected to the response spectrum analysis.
Table 4.17: Storey displacement for the plastered straw-bale building under RS load

n n
M mm mm
Roof 6 Top 0.00107 0.00113
Deck
Story1 3 Top 0.000614 0.000478
7 5
Base 0 Top 0 0
Table 4.18 shows the response of the building in direction of x and y under the action of
wind load. A maximum storey displacement of 0.0019 mm at the roof of the plastered
straw-bale building is recorded when subjected to wind load.
Table 4.18: Storey response (displacement) under wind load

M mm mm
Roof Deck 6 Top 0.001872 0.0005955
Story1 3 Top 0.001559 0.0004207
Base 0 Top 0 0
The response of the plastered straw-bale building to shear is shown in Table 4.19.
Table 4.19: Storey response (shear) under the RS load

n n
m kN kN
Roof 6 Top 1.914 6.447
Deck 4
Bottom 1.914 6.447
90
4
Story1 3 Top 3.862 10.858
5 2
Bottom 3.862 10.858
5 2
Base 0 Top 0 0
Bottom 0 0
The storey stiffness of the building is shown in Table 4.20.
Table 4.20: Storey Response (Stiffness) of the plastered straw-bale building
Story Elevati Locati X-Dir Y-Dir

on on
M kN/m kN/m
Roof 6 Top 2167759.1 136028
Deck 65 12
Story1 3 Top 11103008 335505
08
Base 0 Top 0 0
The maximum drift under the earthquake load which occur at top of each storey in both
the x and y direction as shown in Table 4.21.
Table 4.21: Storey Response (Drifts)

n n
M
Roof 6 Top 0.000001 0.0000002
Deck 7
Story1 3 Top 2.049E- 1.595E-07
07
Base 0 Top 0 0
91
It can be seen that the most severe drift limit ( d r v ≤ 0.005 h , for building having non-
structural elements of brittle materials attached to the structure) is not exceeded in any
storey. For the maximum storey drift, 0.000001 is less than 0.015.
4.2.2.2 Time History Analysis

The reaction at the base of the plastered straw-bale building due to the dead load, live
load, wind and under the Petrolia earthquake is shown in Table 4.22.
Table 4.22: Base reactions of the plastered straw-bale building under Petrolia earthquake
Load Case FX FY FZ MX MY MZ
kN kN kN kN-m kN-m kN-m
Dead 0 0 8812.79 65543.995 - 1.704E-05
7 69984.8824
Live 0 0 1536 11520.0036 -12288.002 5.496E-06
Wind -14.9204 0 0 4.191E-05 -45.6899 111.9029
Time 221.5216 239.6697 9.8315 933.2032 1121.4632 1625.5633
History
Max
Time - - - -997.3259 -1065.3485 -
History 233.0601 207.2374 11.4442 1849.4671
Min
Table 4.23 shows the maximum vertical displacement of the building under the action of
the Petrolia earthquake in both the x and y direction. The maximum storey displacement
of the building is at the top of the building with a value of 0.0072 mm.
Table 4.23: Storey response (displacement) of the plastered straw-bale building under the
Petrolia earthquake

n n
m mm mm
Roof 6 Top 0.00722 0.00663
Deck 8 5
Story1 3 Top 0.00447 0.00402
1 9
Base 0 Top 0 0
92
The shear on the plastered straw-bale walled building is shown in Table 4.24.
Table 4.24: Storey shear for the plastered straw-bale building subjected to the Petrolia
earthquake
Elevatio Locatio X-Dir Y-Dir

n n
M kN kN
Roof 6 Top -96.7067 -86.2049
Deck
Bottom 103.0351 94.6537
Story1 3 Top - -
210.0556 186.2283
Bottom 207.9134 212.7944
Base 0 Top 0 0
Bottom 0 0
The maximum drift for of the plastered straw-bale walled building under the Petrolia
earthquake occur at top of each storey in both the x and y direction as shown in Table
4.25.
Table 4:25: Storey drift of the building under the Petrolia earthquake

m
Roof 6 Top 0.000001 0.000001
The Deck maximum
Story1 3 Top 0.000001 0.000001
storey displacement
Base 0 Top 0 0
of the reinforced
concrete building when its subjected to response spectrum analysis is 162.9 mm and it
occurs at the top of the building, while that of the plastered straw-bale walled building
gives a displacement of 0.0011 mm.
93
The maximum drift of the reinforced concrete building under the action of response
spectrum analysis is at the 2nd storey (roof deck) and has a value of 0.018 while the
plastered straw-bale walled building gives a value of 0.000001.
For the time history analysis, under the action of the Petrolia historical earthquake, the
maximum storey displacement of the reinforced concrete building is at the top of the
building with a value of 38.3 mm while that of the plastered straw-bale walled building is
0.0072 mm.
The plastered straw-bale walled building offers great resistance to earthquake and can
therefore be used in the construction of earthquake resistance structures.
CHAPTER FIVE
5.0 CONCLUSIONS AND RECOMMENDATIONS
5.1 Conclusions
From the study, various cases of tremor occurrences are expected from the year 2017 to
2030 with a minimum number of two in the year 2017, 2020, 2027 and 2030 respectively.
An earthquake with intensity of about IV to VI on the MMI scale is expected to occur in
the year 2017, 2020, 2021 and 2022.
The high drift and deflection of the reinforced building makes it dangerous and also
unsuitable for human habitation during the occurrence of earthquakes. The plastered
straw bale walled building despite its limitation in height offer a high resistance to
94
earthquake load as it has a very low value of drift and displacement under the action of
the simulated earthquake.
5.2 Recommendations
In the analysis of a building in earthquake regions, it is recommended that both the time
history analysis and response spectrum analysis be used. This is because the time history
analysis can determine the response of such structure under that particular earthquake and
the response spectrum will cater for its response under a worst-case scenario.
The plastered straw bale walled building should be used in the construction of buildings
in earthquake and tremor prone areas since it has the ability of resisting seismic loads
when subjected to earthquake load. And thus, it should be used in the construction of
earthquake resistant structure.
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PUBLICATIONS
Abolarin, J., & Adedeji, A. (2016). Investigating Earthquake Magnitude by Seismic

Signals and Wavelet Transform in its Optimal Design. Websjournal of Science
and Engineering Application, 5(2), 305-322.
99
Abolarin, J., Adedeji, A., & Bello, A. (2017). A Cogent Study of Response of Low-Rise
Modal Structures against Superlative Earthquake Movement. Epistemics in
Science, Engineering and Technology, 7(1), 486-493.
APPENDIX A
GENERAL PROCEDURE FOR MODELLING A BUILDING WITH ETABS
100
1. Start: Launch ETABS by clicking on the Start Menu, then All Programs, select the
ETABS icon from the list of the programs. It is assumed that ETABS must have been
installed on your computer system. Then from “File” menu, select New Model and
change the settings to your preferred choice. Set the grid and click ok. Figure A1
shows the ETABS version 15.0.0 interface.
Fig. A1: ETABS Version 15.0.0 Interface
2. Defining Material Properties: On the menu bar, click the “define" menu, and select
“materials” item from the drop down list, to display “define materials” form. The
inbuilt material properties may be modified or Click “add new material” button to add
new material property definition.
3. Defining Member Sections: click the “define” menu from the menu bar and choose
‘frame sections, or slab sections’ submenu depending on the member that is to be
modelled. The inbuilt material properties may be modified or click “add new
property” button to add new material property definition. Sections may be imported
from the inbuilt sections of the software.
4. Defining Load and Load Combinations Cases: This allows you to specify the loads
that are acting on the bridge components. Click “define” menu, select “load Pattern”
101
item, and pick “Add new load pattern” to display the “Load pattern” form. Add the
loads acting on the bridge. To define the load combinations, Click “define” menu,
select “load combination” item, and pick “Add new Combo” to display the “Load
combination data” form. Create combinations for the loads based on the design codes.
5. Assigning Loads: This is adding the specified load to the structural members. Click
“assign” menu, select the ‘frame loads’ submenu and pick ‘distributed’ to assign
distributed load to the beams. Select ‘shell loads’ and pick ‘uniform’ to add load to
the slabs.
6. Analyze for the Already Defined Cases: This is the processing stage. Click the
“analyze” menu, and select “set load cases to run” item. On the “set load cases to run”
form, select the cases to run, and select the “run/do not run” button. Click “run now”
button to run the analysis.
7. Check Moment, Forces and Reactions: click on the “display” menu, and select the
“deformed shape” and then “force/stress diagram” item. Place cursor on each of the
members to display the moment, forces and reactions.
8. Design Member: Click “design” menu and select “view/revise preference” item, to
choose the preferred code for design. Click the “design” menu, select “concrete frame
design” item and then choose “start design/ check structure”.
9. End: This is Exiting the program after getting all the required results. Click the “file”
menu, select “Exit” item.
102
APPENDIX B
FORECASTING USING MICROSOFT EXCEL 2016
Table B.1: Statistical Parameters of the Forecast for an interval of 1 year
Statistic Value
Alpha 0.25
Beta 0.00
Gamma 0.00
MASE 0.90
SMAPE 1.55
MAE 1.11
RMSE 1.64
Table B.2: Statistical Parameters for the 5-Year Forecast for the Number of Tremor
Occurrence
Statistic Value
Alpha 0.25
Beta 0.00
Gamma 0.25
MASE 0.94
SMAPE 1.16
MAE 3.48
RMSE 4.28
Table B.3: Statistical parameters for the forecast of the minimum yearly tremor intensity
Statistic Value
Alpha 0.25
Beta 0.00
Gamma 0.25
MASE 0.56
SMAPE 1.61
MAE 1.36
RMSE 1.87
103
APPENDIX C
FORECASTING USING GRETL AND EVIEWS
(1) Stationarity Tests for the Earthquake (Eq) Data
Table C.1: Unit root results carried out Earthquake (EQ) series
t-Statistic Prob.*
Augmented Dickey-Fuller test statistic -5.471067 0.0001

Test critical values: 1% level -3.639407
5% level -2.951125
10% level -2.614300
*MacKinnon (1996) one-sided p-values.
Hypothesis
H 0 : Earthquake (EQ) series has a unit root vs H 1 : Not H0
Decision rule:
104
Reject the null hypothesis if the p-value is less than the 5% critical value. Otherwise we
do not reject the null hypothesis
Decision:
Since the p−value ( ¿ 0.0001 )>5 (¿−2.948404) critical value, we therefore reject the
null hypothesis and conclude that the EQ series is stationary at level.
Conclusion:
We therefore conclude that the earthquake data does not contain unit root. That is, it is an
I ( 0) stationary process.
(2) Model Identification

It is not always easy to determine the appropriate model to fit to a time series data even
after the time plot have been properly examined. It is also necessary to examine the two
model identification tool called the autocorrelation function and partial autocorrelation
function.
ACF for EQ
0.4 +- 1.96/T^0.5
0.3
0.2
0.1
0
-0.1
-0.2
-0.3
-0.4
0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8
lag
PACF for EQ
0.4 +- 1.96/T^0.5
0.3
0.2
0.1
0
-0.1
-0.2
-0.3
-0.4
0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8
lag
Fig. C.1: Autocorrelation function and partial autocorrelation function for EQ series
It is observed from Figure 4.5 that the spikes of both the autocorrelation function (ACF)
and partial autocorrelation function (PACF) decayed exponentially. Hence,
ARMA ( p , q) model is suggested to fit the earthquake data.
105
(3) Model Evaluation
The first step in this stage is plotting the residuals of the yearly earthquake series values.
If the model fits well, the standardized residuals should behave as an identically and
independently distributed sequence with mean zero and variance one.
The time plot should be inspected for any clear departures from this assumption.
Residual ACF
0.4 +- 1.96/T^0.5
0.3
0.2
0.1
0
-0.1
-0.2
-0.3
-0.4
0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8
lag
Residual PACF
0.4 +- 1.96/T^0.5
0.3
0.2
0.1
0
-0.1
-0.2
-0.3
-0.4
0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8
lag
Fig. C.2: Residual Autocorrelation Function and Residual Partial Autocorrelation

Function for EQ series
106
0.3
Test statistic for normality: uhat1
N(0.05635,2.4098)
Chi-square(2) = 7.714 [0.0211]
0.25
0.2
Density
0.15
0.1
0.05
0
-6 -4 -2 0 2 4 6 8
uhat1
Fig. C.3: Histogram of Residuals of the Fitted Model

The normality test to check whether the residual is normally distributed.
Q-Q plot for uhat1

5
y=x
-1
-2
-3
-4
-4 -3 -2 -1 0 1 2 3 4 5
Normal quantiles
Fig. C.4: Normal Q-Q Plot
107
APPENDIX D
SEISMIC ANALYSIS
1. Reinforced Concrete Building
(i) Response Spectrum Analysis
108
Fig. D.1: Storey Response Plot (Displacement) for the Earthquake load
Fig. D.2: Storey Response Plot (Drifts)
109
Fig. D.3: Storey Response Plot (Displacement) for Wind Load
Fig. D.4: Storey Response Plot for Stiffness
110
(ii) Time History Analysis
Fig. D.5: Pseudo Spectral Acceleration per Period for the Base
Fig. D.6: Pseudo Spectral Acceleration per Period for Storey One
111
Fig. D.7: Pseudo Spectral Acceleration per Period for Storey Two
Fig. D.8: Pseudo Spectral Acceleration per Period for Storey Three
112
Fig. D.9: Storey Response Plot (Displacement) of the Concrete Building for the Petrolia
Earthquake
Fig. D.10: Storey Response Plot (Drift) for the Petrolia Earthquake
113
Fig. D.11: Storey Shears of the Concrete Building for the Petrolia Earthquake
2. Plastered Straw-bale building
(i) Response Spectrum Analysis
114
Fig. D.12: Storey Response Plot (Displacement) for the Plastered Straw-bale Building
under RS
Fig. D.13: Storey Response Plot (Displacement) for Wind Load
115
Table D.14: Storey Response Plot (Shear) for the Earthquake Load
Fig. D.15: Storey Response Plot for Stiffness

(ii) Time History Analysis
116
Fig. D.16: Storey Response Plot (Displacement) of the Plastered Straw-bale Building
under Petrolia Earthquake
Fig. D.17: Storey Response

Plot of Shear for the
Plastered Straw-bale Building
Subjected to the Petrolia
Earthquake
Fig. D.18: Storey Response

Plot (Drift) for the Plastered
Straw-bale Building
Subjected to the Petrolia
Earthquake
117

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INVESTIGATING THE EFFECT OF EARTHQUAKE ON

BUILDINGS BY SEISMIC SIGNALS AND WAVELET

ABOLARIN, John Seyi

Matric No: 09/30GB004

A PROJECT SUBMITTED TO THE DEPARTMENT OF CIVIL

IN PARTIAL FULFILMENT OF THE REQUIREMENTS FOR THE

Prof. A.A. Adedeji Date

Dr. A.A. Jimoh Date

Dr. J.I. Aguwa Date

LIST OF FIGURES XII

1.1 Background of the study 1

1.2 Aim and Objectives 2

1.3 Problem Statement 3

1.4 Justification of Study 3

1.5 Scope of Work 3

1.6 Description of the Study Area 4

1.7 Thesis Outline 4

2.0 LITERATURE REVIEW 6

2.1.1 Measurement of Earthquakes 8

2.1.1.2 Intensity of Earthquakes 11

2.1.2 Earthquake Occurrences 13

2.1.3 Earthquakes in Africa 19

2.1.3.1 Earthquakes in Ghana 19

2.1.3.2 Earthquakes in Algeria 21

2.1.3.2.1 Algeria El Asnam earthquake (1980) 21

2.1.3.2.2 Boumerdès earthquake; Algeria (2003) 22

2.1.3.4 Rwanda Earthquake 23

2.1.3.5 Earthquake in Southern Africa 24

2.1.4 Earthquakes and Tremors in Nigeria 26

2.2 Earthquake Prediction 32

2.3 Seismic Forces 38

2.3.1 Building reaction to Seismic Forces 39

2.4 Seismic Analysis 40

2.4.1 The Petrolia Earthquake 40

2.4.2 The Shake Table 41

2.4.2.1 The Azalee Shake Table 41

2.4.2.2 Schierle Shake Table 41

2.4.3 Computer Simulation 42

2.4.4 Methods of Seismic Analysis 42

2.5 Straw-Bale as a Building Material 45

3.1 Collection of Data 47

3.2 Earthquake Prediction 48

3.2.1 Forecasting Using Microsoft Excel 2016 49

3.2.1.1 Yearly Forecast 49

3.2.1.2 Five-Years Forecast 52

3.2.1.3 Yearly Intensity Forecast 55

3.2.2 Forecasting Using Gretl and Eviews 55

3.3 Seismic Analysis of the Building 59

3.3.1 Material Property Definition 60

3.3.2 Member Section Definitions 62

3.3.3 Modelling and Loading 65

3.3.3.1 Response Spectrum 69

3.3.3.2 Time History 72

3.3.4 Damage Limitations 74

4.0 RESULTS AND DISCUSSION 76

4.1.1 Forecasting Using Microsoft Excel 76

4.1.1.1 Yearly Forecast 76

4.1.1.2 Five years Interval Forecast 77

4.1.1.3 Intensity Per Year 79

4.1.2.1 Estimation of Parameters 81

4.1.2.3 Yearly Forecast 85

4.2 Seismic Analysis 86

4.2.1 Reinforced Concrete Building 87