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Final Report
16 October 2009
2 Introduction 8
2.1 Background 8
2.2 Consultation 8
2.3 Context 9
2.4 Network Rail Business Case 9
2.5 Maximising the Benefits 10
5 Economic Context 22
5.1 Economic Trends and Drivers 22
5.2 Glasgow : Edinburgh City Region Economic Context 22
5.3 Productivity 23
6 Policy Context 25
6.1 Strategic Framework 25
6.2 Scottish Government 25
6.3 City and City Region Policy and Strategy 25
7 Transport Network 27
7.1 Connectivity Context 27
7.2 International Accessibility 27
7.3 Comprehensive and High Class Transport Infrastructure 27
9 City Centres 34
9.1 City Centre Stations 34
9.2 Central Station, Glasgow 34
9.3 Waverley Station, Edinburgh 35
9.4 Haymarket Station, Edinburgh 36
9.5 Integration and Secondary Hubs 37
11 Land Use 42
11.1 Land Use and Enabling Infrastructure 42
11.2 Infrastructure and Land Uses: Glasgow 42
11.3 Infrastructure and Land Uses: Edinburgh 45
11.4 Enabling Infrastructure and Policy: Central Scotland 47
11.5 Land Use Forecasts 47
11.6 Office Market 48
12 Governance and Leadership 49
12.1 Political Support and Governance 49
13 Conclusions 51
13.1 Key actions 51
Appendix 1 – Bibliography 55
This study will also feed into Transport Scotland’s work on a business case for High
Speed Rail Line 2 to Glasgow and Edinburgh. The Transport Scotland business case
work is being submitted to the HS 2 Group (national body charged by UK
Government to take forward HSR2).
This study is based upon extensive consultation with key business representatives,
and agencies involved with economic development. It is further informed by a review
of the experience of the impact of high speed networks in Europe and studies in the
UK. The focus of the study is upon identifying the characteristics of those business
sectors which most benefit from HSR and understanding the other requirements of
such businesses if they are to capture the potential that HSR opens up for the benefit
of Scotland.
1.2 Introduction
There is clear evidence that HSR can create and facilitate significant economic
impacts and wider benefits. It is over greater distances that decreased journey times,
and consequent economic impacts and environmental benefits from modal shift can
be best secured and maximised.
However, maximum benefit will only be achieved where positive action is taken to
realise the full potential.
Experience shows that HSR will influence socio-economic trends rather than initiate
new ones. Trends in the economy and labour market will be influenced by much
more powerful forces. Taken in isolation, the economic impacts and immediate wider
benefits of HSR in Scotland will not transform the Scottish economy into a world
class performer. However, the foundation that world class transport infrastructure
would provide if linked to an aspirational economic development strategy and
implementation plan could facilitate a step change in economic performance. The
current potential for economic development within Glasgow and Edinburgh city
regions in particular should be a focus for Scotland. The movement towards a single
economic area and integrated labour market for Scotland’s two largest cities linked to
world class transport infrastructure can provide the basis for economic transformation
in Scotland. HSR can facilitate major new opportunities which will produce economic
and spatial distribution benefits at a city, city region and national level.
HSR can facilitate greater interactions between key businesses working in different
markets. This could result in a positive economic flow outward from London, creating
powerful regional partners within the UK economy. Scotland must not be left behind
in this process and therefore Scotland’s immediate involvement in phase 1 of HSR is
of fundamental importance.
1
1.3 Wider Economic Benefits and Complementary Actions
Evidence shows that the assessment of wider economic benefits adds between 12%
and 25% to economic impacts. However, Greengauge21 has recently estimated this
can be as high as 50%. Including these wider economic benefits will significantly
improve the understanding of the impact of transport projects and see a
strengthening in the justification of the business case for HSR to Scotland.
Wider economic benefits will only accrue over the longer term. Direct benefits decline
over time, indirect benefits will reach a plateau. However the structural changes
which can occur in parallel with HSR will provide continued benefits over many
generations, derived from wider economic benefits and from complementary actions.
These can be maximised through supporting policy and intervention.
Glasgow and Edinburgh are key drivers and form the backbone of the Scottish
economy. Scotland’s two largest cities already make a disproportionate contribution
to national wealth creation and are of such significance that their step change in
performance is fundamental to the future prospect of achieving sustainable economic
growth and building a world class economy in Scotland.
Glasgow and Edinburgh do not yet form a fully integrated economic area. In
particular, the two city region labour markets are still relatively distinct. Only about
3% of the respective workforces commute from the Glasgow city region to Edinburgh
or vice versa. A larger and more integrated labour market could offer more productive
and more specialised jobs. Having reached what could be described as a critical
mass, the two economies would be more balanced, less prone to business and
economic cycles and better protected from external shocks. In short, a more
integrated labour market and economy would provide greater economic resilience
and increase potential opportunities. Furthermore, Scotland’s economic potential
would increase. In order to achieve this, both Glasgow and Edinburgh city regions
will need to place greater emphasis on integration by coordinating economic
development and fundamentally by improving connectivity, accessibility and transport
infrastructure quality.
2
There are undoubtedly European regions which share a similar dual city pattern, but
Glasgow and Edinburgh's proximity and their complementary structures make the
potential of their collaborative impact extremely significant. Economists who have
tried to measure this suggest that doubling city and city region size could result in up
to 8% productivity increases (Rosenthal and Strange, 2004; Venables, 2006).
Understanding the geography of economic development and key industries in
Scotland will be critical to exploiting the opportunities that will be presented by HSR.
A single integrated economic area for Glasgow and Edinburgh will provide the
environment to maximise the benefits for Scotland.
1.6 Productivity
Glasgow and Edinburgh cities and city regions currently have a production gap with
the top international performers. The primary reason for this gap is their relatively low
productivity rates. Increasing productivity must be the major focus of any economic
development policy. In the long term, it is productivity which determines the economic
success and higher wages and living standards of any highly developed economy. A
world class transport system is recognised as one of the key enablers for enhancing
productivity and sustainable economic growth, through closer interaction between
complementary businesses, and improved use of scarce skills.
High speed rail can facilitate a one-off effect on the level of productivity (along with
focused economic development interventions) by enabling an increase in higher
value businesses that could result in a significant increase in productivity growth
rates. If sustained over a 20 year period of development this increased rate of growth
could enable the cities to close the production gap with the top international
performers. World class transport would support a sustained impact on productivity
level. Transport can support impacts on the growth rate of productivity by stimulating
innovation through its impact on agglomeration economies, inward investment and
international trade.
3
At a city region level, transport, economic and spatial strategies across the UK have
not been as well integrated as in other countries, where concepts of smart growth
and transit oriented development are more deeply embedded. Innovative approaches
should be considered including more streamlined planning regimes and use of
special development zones. Nevertheless, there is reason to believe that legislative
changes to the planning system in Scotland will provide an improved policy context
and a more streamlined system. The Planning (etc) Scotland Act 2006 includes
provision for a National Planning Framework for Scotland, larger city region strategic
development plans and a hierarchy of development including strategic development.
The current NPF includes high speed rail to the south. The strategic development
plans will include the Glasgow and the Clyde Valley Strategic Development Plan, and
the South East Scotland Strategic Development Plan. This means that two strategic
level plans will be covering the central belt of Scotland, allowing for greater inter-
regional collaboration. Moreover, the establishment of Regional Transport Strategies
and associated partnerships increases the scope for policy integration at the regional
level, between strategic development planning and strategic transport planning.
However, there may be a need to focus on delivery at the national government level,
to ensure that strategic transport priorities continue to be aligned with National
Planning Framework priorities.
There is evidence that strategic priority areas in both Glasgow and Edinburgh are
aligned with accessibility opportunities which will facilitate the flow of benefits from
the centres across the city regions. Further, the West Edinburgh Planning Framework
is an example (the only example in Scotland to date) of how planning, transport and
economic development can be integrated in the spatial context to deliver a strategic
development corridor. These recent strategic developments provide a model for a
more joined-up approach in the future.
A coherent approach and integration of policy and intervention is essential for HSR.
It also provides a wide range of opportunities for extending links across the whole of
Scotland including Dundee, Aberdeen and Inverness. Feeder services can be
enhanced as required to link other parts of Scotland and its international airports with
the HSR network. This regional network needs to deliver improved speeds, increased
frequency and capacity and an improved working environment to complement the
HSR network itself and spread the benefits across Scotland.
4
from Scotland’s airports to the European continent, is an essential element of
improving international positioning and competitiveness. Domestic air travel will be
significantly reduced by HSR. Consequently, airports can develop direct international
business routes from the freed capacity. However close linkages with Heathrow as a
major transport hub is also important.
Bringing HSR into Scotland’s big cities is therefore critical to maximise economic
impacts and wider benefits and could have a major impact on their identity, image
and behaviour, since their location characteristics (fast high quality access to the
centre of London, other UK cities and the European continent) and development
values would be transformed. Clustering higher value activities of the knowledge
economy around city centre hubs, such as financial and business services and
creative industries, would provide further momentum to success achieved over the
last decade. Furthermore, improved connectivity and accessibility would provide a
major boost to city and Scottish business and leisure tourism as well as a significant
if short to medium term boost to the construction industry.
Central Station has been identified by Glasgow City Council and its partners as the
option for Glasgow’s station and terminus. Its location is in the heart of the city
centre, close proximity to the International Financial Services District and the best
retail offer outside of London and with easy access to the HE quarter and the Clyde
Waterfront. Furthermore, Central Station provides a unique development opportunity
to create a Glaswegian St Pancras. It also sits at the heart of a corridor of
development opportunities, stretching south-east and north-west of the city, all
directly served by rail.
In Edinburgh, Waverley and Haymarket have been identified as possible stations for
Edinburgh. Waverley Station is the preferred option in terms of its location in the city
centre, but access from the west is problematic and there will be serious constraints
on development around the potential hub, in particular because of townscape and
heritage issues which preclude higher density development. Nevertheless, Waverley
is in close proximity to redevelopment proposals including the new St James’s Centre
and Caltongate. Haymarket offers an opportunity within an existing masterplan
centred on station redevelopment, the interchange with the Edinburgh Tram and
access to western Edinburgh’s financial service centres. It is less central than
Waverley and may be constrained in terms of opportunities for expansion, although
higher densities would be more acceptable than for Waverley. At either location the
national and local rail networks serve a wide hinterland, and the Edinburgh tram will
provide access to a corridor of development opportunities running from the Airport to
the Waterfront.
5
A further enhancement of the city centres and their core uses would accelerate
economic development and regeneration opportunities across Scotland.
Furthermore, this would integrate and strengthen the Glasgow and Edinburgh role as
a fully functional economic region and Scottish economic driver and support global
ambitions by improving connectivity and increasing its investment attractiveness.
However, it is worth noting that HSR interchanges would need to be connected and
integrated with the existing network and other key gateways through very efficient,
attractive and sustainable links to maximise the benefits for the surrounding regions
and Scotland. Strategically located secondary hubs that focus on key development
sites and areas will play a major role in spatial distribution and the development of
secondary clusters.
1.11 UK Connectivity
There is a need to consider the nature and potential of the relationship with London.
For key sectors particularly financial services, faster, more regular city centre to city
centre access to London will further boost Scotland’s cost competitive advantages,
as much of the growth sector has been in relocations out of high cost London-based
locations. Other sectors identified the linking with other centres or clusters of activity
to be of potential business benefit such as life sciences in Cambridge, digital media
in Manchester. Furthermore, discussions should take place to identify potential
benefits from closer collaboration links and common causes with other UK cities such
as Manchester, Leeds and Newcastle.
6
It is clear that changes in governance are needed to support more joined-up action
within both national and local government and between national decisions on HSR
routing and local/regional action on complementary measures. Unresolved this could
prove to be the biggest barrier to reaping the full rewards of HSR.
1.13 Conclusions
It is clear that HSR provides Scotland with a major opportunity for significant
economic growth and world-class business development. Edinburgh and Glasgow
city centres are at the heart of these businesses, and will drive the Scottish economy
forward.
There is evidence however that HSR alone will not deliver these benefits, but
requires the positive support of government, local government and business if the
opportunities are to be fully realised.
With many of the tools already developed, and some of the key policies and
programmes already in place, it is less a question of what, but how these can be
implemented effectively. Twenty-four actions are identified which need to be
undertaken by the main actors at national and local levels.
7
2 Introduction
2.1 Background
The Glasgow : Edinburgh Collaboration Initiative through its partners Glasgow City
Council, the City of Edinburgh Council and Scottish Enterprise are committed to
securing HSR service between Scotland, the south, London and Europe.
Collaboration Initiative partners are pursuing a joint approach that will result in a step
change in transport connectivity, whilst maximising the wider economic benefits for
the two cities, and Scotland as a whole. A long term view and position statement on
HSR has been established that will help to shape policy and intervention across the
two cities.
This study will also feed into Transport Scotland’s work on a business case for High
Speed Rail Line 2 to Glasgow and Edinburgh. The Transport Scotland business case
work is being submitted to the HS 2 Group (national body charged by UK
Government to take forward HSR2) in October 2009.
The focus of the research is upon identifying the characteristics of the business
sectors that most benefit from HSR and understanding the other requirements of
such businesses if they are to capture the potential that HSR opens up for Scotland.
2.2 Consultation
This study is based upon extensive consultation with key business representatives,
and transport and economic development agencies. The quality of input and the time
dedicated by consultees to supporting this study is very gratefully acknowledged by
Halcrow and the Glasgow : Edinburgh Collaboration Initiative. This study has been
influenced significantly by the views and evidence provided by consultees.
The stakeholder consultation process was designed to identify and explore key
issues, opportunities and constraints faced in delivering and maximising the
economic benefits of HSR. A series of one-to-one consultation meetings, telephone
interviews and group discussions with:
• Transport Scotland
• SPT
• SESTran
• Scottish Council for Development and Industry
• Scottish Enterprise
• Glasgow-Edinburgh Collaboration Initiative
• Glasgow City Council
• City of Edinburgh Council
• Scottish Financial Enterprise
• Glasgow Chamber of Commerce
• Edinburgh Chamber of Commerce
• Glasgow City Marketing Bureau
8
There was clearly a consensus amongst consultees. This is best reflected in a
visionary statement:
The study was further informed by a review of the experience of the impact of high
speed networks in Europe and studies in the UK.
2.3 Context
Learning lessons from new rail infrastructure projects internationally and in the UK is
vital. Experience demonstrates that new railway stations can bring significant
economic additionality at a local level, not least by developing a hub of new
economic activity, creating demand for workforce and other resources, including
land. This can further result in a positive impact on the value of the resources.
Network Rail has unveiled the business case for a new high speed route from the
centre of London to Scotland. The route would link the centres of London,
Birmingham, Manchester, Liverpool, Glasgow and Edinburgh. Travel times between
London and Scotland would be reduced to a little over two hours.
Network Rail’s analysis uses the latest government guidelines and modelling for
calculating the benefits. It considers time savings and their associated value, and the
reduction in overcrowding. It also assesses the value of additional freight routes and
the reduction in congestion, accidents and carbon emissions. Wider benefits such as
productivity improvements and regeneration were not been included. These benefits
would further enhance the case.
Network Rail suggests that existing north-south rail routes have insufficient capacity
to meet the total demand for inter-city and local passenger services, and freight,
within the foreseeable future. Additional capacity will be necessary simply to maintain
rail’s current role in meeting the needs of businesses and the economy.
There is clear evidence that HSR can create and facilitate significant economic
impacts and wider benefits. Strong evidence has emerged from international
9
experience, including research by Greengauge21 and Network Rail. It is over greater
distances that decreased journey times, economic impacts, environmental benefits
from modal shift can be best secured and maximised. Scotland’s aspirations are
driven by a different balance of priorities from other parts of the UK, due to the
potentially significantly higher benefits.
HSR can facilitate greater interactions between key businesses in different markets.
This could result in a positive economic flow outward from London, creating powerful
regional partners within the UK economy. Consequently, Scotland’s immediate
involvement in phase 1 of HSR is of fundamental importance.
Glasgow : Edinburgh Collaboration Initiative and its partners recognise that the
benefits are greater when journey time reductions are maximised, and therefore look
for a frequent service from both cities, offering journey times around two and a half
hours or less to London, with comparable reductions in journey times to other cities in
England.
However, this study is not about identifying or quantifying the economic impacts of
HSR, but how to both realise and maximise them. This involves considering the
locational and land-use requirements of businesses best able to take advantage of
HSR, and how stakeholders and partners can act decisively to maximise wider
benefits.
Experience shows that HSR will influence socio-economic trends rather than initiate
new ones. Trends in the economy and labour market are determined by much more
powerful forces. The wider benefits of HSR in Scotland, whilst significant, will not
transform the Scottish economy into a world class performer. However, the
foundation provided by world class transport infrastructure, if linked to an aspirational
economic development strategy and implementation plan, could facilitate a step
change in performance. The current economic development potential in Glasgow and
Edinburgh city regions in particular should be a focus for Scotland. The movement
towards a single economic area and integrated labour market for Scotland’s two
largest cities, linked to world class transport infrastructure, can provide the basis for
transforming Scotland economically. HSR can facilitate major new opportunities with
economic and spatial distribution benefits locally and nationally.
However, maximum benefit will only be achieved where positive action is taken to
realise the full potential, by providing the locations, land, and connectivity that key
sector businesses need in order to thrive.
10
3 Impacts and Benefits
3.1 Wider Economic Benefits and Complementary Actions
The traditional view has been that additional benefits are not expected to be very
important in the case of HSR investment1 because freight transport does not benefit
from HSR, and because service industry economic activity may concentrate in core
urban areas. However, this has been challenged by the OECD Joint Transport
Research Centre, which cites more recent research2 as an indication that wider
benefits, such as agglomeration, may be greater for sectors such as financial
services, and that it is erroneous to conclude that scale economies, agglomeration
economies and productivity impacts are limited to manufacturing and freight
transport.
Evidence shows that the assessment of wider economic benefits adds between 12%
and 25% to economic impacts. However, Greengauge21 has recently estimated3 this
can be as high as 50%. Including these wider economic benefits will significantly
improve the understanding of the impact of transport projects and see a
strengthening in the justification of the business case for HSR to Scotland.
11
Wider economic benefits will only accrue over the longer term. Direct benefits decline
over time, indirect benefits will reach a plateau. However the structural changes
which can occur in parallel with HSR will provide continued benefits over many
generations, derived from wider economic benefits and from complementary actions.
These can be maximised through supporting policy and intervention.
The influential Eddington report concluded that transport investment should focus on
supporting economically vital locations such as congested urban areas, inter-urban
corridors, ports and airports. The consideration of previously hidden wider economic
benefits including agglomeration effects and land values reinforces SACTRA and
Eddington’s focus on cities, city regions and important inter-urban corridors which will
enhance the case for HSR. Furthermore, particular high value sectors are more
responsive to transport improvements. This will include some of Scotland’s key
sectors such as financial and business services and creative industries.
Wider economic benefits that support the case for HSR to Scotland include:
Labour mobility
Increased workplace accessibility and expanded labour market catchment areas. As
labour supply and skills availability are two of the most important factors in business
location, HSR and improved transport can increase and improve labour supply.
Locational attractiveness
Transport is an important, but not the determining factor, in business location. Other
factors such as a skilled and/or inexpensive workforce, the quality of the local
environment and property costs, have been shown to be equally, if not more
important when considered in isolation. However, when considered with other
factors, transport significantly influences location decisions. Availability of qualified
staff, easy access to markets and external transport links were the three most
12
important criteria identified by Invest UK. As attractiveness increases there would be
opportunities to encourage larger numbers to live and work in Scotland.
Environmental
HSR can deliver these economic benefits with limited environmental impact. Its
carbon footprint is better than either road or air travel, particularly if electricity is
generated from low carbon sources. Electric traction is potentially independent of oil
supplies, which road transport is currently not, and air transport is unlikely to be in the
foreseeable future. An ability to transport a significant proportion of freight and
passengers by electric traction will therefore make the UK economy less vulnerable
to disruption from changes in the price/supply of oil. Capacity released on
conventional lines will reduce overcrowding, improve reliability and enable more
services to operate from local stations, and more freight services. It will also enable
conventional lines to take passenger and freight traffic from the road network.
Generally it is understood that the larger the agglomeration economy, the greater the
agglomeration benefits. So if the scale of a city and city region is increased, the
agglomeration economies available are increased and consequently economic
performance is enhanced. However, it is should be recognised that effective density
is a more important influence than absolute size – indeed large sprawling areas of
low density development fail to show the benefits of agglomeration.
Increasing effective density means increasing the number of people and businesses
who can access the city effectively and efficiently though high class connectivity. For
example, collaboration and effective connectivity of Glasgow and Edinburgh will
increase effective density and size (critical mass) and as a consequence increase
agglomeration benefits. It should be noted that city regions with high productivity
levels will benefit more from agglomeration benefits.
Conventional appraisals capture some of the economic benefits from reduced travel
times, but when agglomeration benefits of transport investment are considered it is
the productivity gains that are the focus. Until recently there has been no reliable
methodology for quantifying this wider economic benefit. Consequently
agglomeration benefits have been excluded from standard assessments and
appraisals. However, there is now a robust methodology that can measure
agglomeration.
13
However, the main effects of HSR on regional economic distribution are viewed as
mixed. There is a perceived tension, between the benefits of the agglomeration
advantages arising from lowered costs and greater competition, with the wider
locational choices offered to businesses which may offer more dispersed patterns of
activity and the consequential ‘two way road’ that is opened up, which allows a
stronger region to penetrate a weaker region, increasing regional inequalities.
Furthermore, ‘localisation’ effects of transport (i.e. economic benefits derived from
increasing the proximity of businesses to each other) fall off quite rapidly with
distance, with little or no effect beyond 50 km, and the most significant effects much
closer than this.
The indirect benefits of agglomeration are thought to be larger where there is good
7
inter-regional and intra-regional connectivity to share the benefits of core city
14
growth, even though direct benefits are highly centralised and focussed on key
locations and sectors.
1
Puga (2002), Duranton and Puga (2001), Vickerman (1995, 2006), Vives (2001) as cited in
De Rus, OECD Joint Transport Research Centre discussion paper 2008-16, revised October
2008.
2
Graham (2007) cited by De Rus, ibid (2008).
3
Complementary Measures to Facilitate Regional Benefits from High Speed Rail, Urban &
Regional Policy, June 2009.
4
UK Rail, A Case for Investment, Inversys, February 2009.
5
Parkinson, cited in reference 3.
5
Wong (2006), cited in reference 3.
7
Department for Transport (2006) cited in reference 3.
15
4 Lessons from International HSR
4.1 International Experience
Evidence has shown that HSR can generate extensive revenue and result in major
reductions in domestic road and air travel. For example, the Madrid to Seville route
has secured 90% of the air market between these two cities, although the passenger
numbers have led to some to conclude that the route is not viable, with some 5m
trips per annum as opposed to the widely-held assumption that 9m-15m passenger
trips per annum are required8. It is now estimated that the TGV South-East holds
91% of the air/rail market.
The distance of the service offered also provides a different business context. For
example, the medium-distance service offered in Spain by Renfe (96 miles on
average with government-set fares, including Madrid-Toledo, 30 minutes for 44
miles, 22 trains per day) requires government subsidy, whereas the long-distance
route (345 miles on average with market fares) is in fact profitable9. In Taiwan the
Government is currently considering taking HSR back into public ownership as a
result of significant operating losses accumulated by the current operator.
High speed rail has acted as a catalyst for economic development and regeneration.
As a result of AVE, Llieda in Spain has seen a 15% increase in tourism and as a
result has secured €150 million of investment. When the TGV in France was
launched, office space in Part-Dieu (station location) increased by 43%. In
Maastricht, office rental values are now the highest in the region particularly around
the Thalys HSR station. The European Commission has estimated that HSR as a
whole would add 0.25% to GDP and increase employment by 0.11%
Evidence is emerging from international experience that HSR can lead to major non-
transport benefits, provided there is a commitment to secure them, and is supported
by policy and intervention at a national, regional and local level. In terms of wider
economic benefits, research indicates that benefits would not be expected to exceed
10%-20% of assessed impact, or influence GDP by more than 2%. However, other
studies point to greater wider benefits (including 40% in the Netherlands), and the
overall conclusion is that the benefits (economic, environmental and wider) that can
be anticipated are variable and dependent upon regional factors10. It is widely
recognised that economic impacts and wider benefits can be maximised with the
focused implementation of complementary actions.
• France11
• Netherlands12
• Spain13
• Taiwan
16
4.2 France, Paris to Lyon – South-East TGV
Development of the TGV network has led to the evolution of Lyon into a city which
supports a Euro region
linking Paris with South
France, Switzerland, and
soon, Turin. TGV has
had a significant impact
on tourism in the
Burgundy region. The
European Commission
estimated that the High
Speed Rail as a whole
would add 0.25% to EU
GDP and 0.11% to
employment over 25
years.
TGV South-East led to massive modal shift from plane/car to train for journeys
between Paris and Lyon. Between 1981 and 1984, mode share increased from 40%
to 72% for trains, and decreased from 31% to 7% and 29% to 21% for planes and
cars respectively. Now, it is estimated that TGV holds 91% of the air/rail travel market
share. TGV services are also estimated to be three times more energy efficient than
aircraft for these journeys.
17
4.3 Netherlands, Thalys Corridor
18
4.4 Spain, High Speed Rail Network – AVE
The introduction of the country’s high speed rail network (AVE) in 1992 revolutionised
rail travel in the country stitching together the regions of Spain with €100 billion of
high speed rail infrastructure.
19
4.5 Taiwan, High Speed Rail Network
The development of the HSR in Taiwan has revolutionised the way people live and
work in the country. It connects seven metropolitan areas in Taiwan, meaning that it
is possible to travel from Tainan to Kaohsiung, Chiayi and Taichung in less than one
hour, exponentially increasing the population’s spatial range for economic (activity)
commuting.
The regional indirect economic benefits in terms of inward investment, job creation
and rise in property prices of the HSR on various regions have been inconsistent.
The economic structure of the Northern and Central regions of Taiwan, which boasts
of centres scientific research and for the production of other knowledge services, has
maximised the indirect impacts of this vital infrastructure. However, the southern
economy, which lacks a knowledge intensive economic structure, has shown no
signs of the spontaneous innovative processes that would facilitate the economic
transformation. This said, the government is of the view that bringing economically
prosperous areas closer to struggling economic regions will result in long term
economic gain for the Taiwan.
THSRC, the private company operating Taiwanese HSR since 2007, had already
incurred an accumulated loss of NT$70.2 billion as of the end of June this year, or
about two-thirds of its total paid-in capital of NT$105.3 billion (US$3.23 billion). The
Taiwanese Government is currently exploring options of converting HSR into public
ownership.
20
8
Russ and Nash 2007, cited in High Speed Rail Investment, Overview of Literature, Network
Rail
9
Capturing the Value of High Speed Rail, presentation by Renfe to High Speed Rail Summit,
9/9/09.
10
SACTRA (1999), Oosterhaven and Elhorst (2003), Brocker (2004) cited in High Speed Rail
Investment, Overview of Literature, Network Rail.
11
Greengauge (2006) – European Regeneration Experience;
Lawyer (2002) – Fuel Efficiency of Travel in the Twentieth Century;
European Commission (1997) - The Likely Macro-economic Benefits and Employment
Impacts of Investments in Trans-European Transport Network;
Kamel et al (2008) – The Non-Transport Impacts of High Speed Trains on Regional Economic
Development;
Mannone V (1997) - Gares TGV et nouvelles dynamiques urbaines en centre ville: Le cas des
villes desservies par le TGV Sud-Est;
12
Steer Davies Gleave (2004) - High Speed Rail: International Comparisons;
Ettema et al (2006) - Monitoring the Effect of the Thalys High Speed Train;
Greengauge 21 (2006) – High Speed Trains and the Development and Regeneration of
Cities;
Willigers (2006) – Impact of High Speed Railway Accessibility on the Locational Choices of
Office Establishments;
South East England Development Agency (2008) – HST Impact Study.
13
The Economic Effects of High Speed Rail Investment October 2008- Ginés DE RUS
University of Las Palmas Spain
High Speed Trains and the Development and Regeneration of Cities, June 2006-
Greengauge 21
Spain's high-speed train the envy of Obama, April 2009- Valencia Life (quoting the Wall
Street Journal
21
5 Economic Context
5.1 Economic Trends and Drivers
Global competition is strong and cities and city regions are increasingly competing to
attract residents, tourists, businesses and investors in an international market place.
The most successful destinations and locations tend to have certain common
qualities. They have a distinct identity, are vibrant, accessible and easy to move
around. They offer a real quality of life, experience and opportunity. Furthermore, to
achieve longer term success they need to adapt to changing circumstances.
Attractive and dynamic city centres are fundamental for supporting sustainable
economic growth. High quality connectivity and accessibility through world class
transport infrastructure can enhance economic prosperity by acting as a gateway and
magnet for business, key sectors and other commercial activities. The city centre is,
almost by definition, at the heart of the local, regional and national transport
networks, both because historically the networks have been built to serve the city, but
also conversely because the existence of transport hubs has created the conditions
for business growth. Attractive, well designed and strategically focused transport
infrastructure can enhance city and national accessibility and act as a facilitator for
major land-use developments. They can improve the attractiveness of a location for
inward investors, facilitate productivity gains as key sectors and higher value
activities cluster around major hubs, increase local and tourist spending and have a
positive impact on the economic outputs and the wider benefits of the city regions
and nations they serve.
It is important to understand the role and contribution of the Glasgow and Edinburgh
economies and their transport hubs towards achieving wealth creation and
distribution. It is also important to consider the potential of HSR for facilitating wider
economic benefits to city centres, city regions and the Scottish economy.
Glasgow and Edinburgh are key drivers and form the backbone of the Scottish
economy. Scotland’s two largest cities already make a disproportionate contribution
to national wealth creation and are of such significance that a step change in their
performance is fundamental to the future prospect of achieving sustainable economic
growth and building a world class economy in Scotland.
Combined, the Glasgow and Edinburgh city regions account for 63% of Scotland’s
population and 66% of GDP/GVA. Furthermore, growth rates do not systematically
differ between the two city regions. Glasgow and Edinburgh city regions have similar
economic structures, but closer analysis reveals some differences. Edinburgh’s
financial sector is more significant than Glasgow’s and has a higher growth rate,
although Glasgow has seen a significant increase in the related business services
sector. Glasgow grew faster between 1995 and 2000 and growth in Edinburgh was
higher after 2000.
Since 1995, 50% of Scotland’s additional jobs have been created in Glasgow and
Edinburgh, the rate of increase was more than double that experienced in Scotland
as a whole. It could be argued there has already been a step change in employment
in Glasgow city centre over the past decade. Over 60,000 new jobs have been
located over the last decade or so, more than 80% of all those created in Glasgow
22
city. Glasgow city centre is now home to almost a quarter of a million employees.
GVA per capita grew at a rate double the rest of Scotland’s and 50% above the UK
average. Furthermore, the growth rates of Edinburgh city during this period were
amongst the best in Europe. Glasgow and Edinburgh has become the focus for
Scotland’s higher value knowledge economy and creative industries jobs.
Interestingly, the political sector, i.e. the public sector and activities strongly shaped
by state intervention, plays a more prominent role in Glasgow than in Edinburgh.
However, labour productivity rates remain relatively low in international terms and
tackling this issue remains a priority.
Glasgow and Edinburgh do not yet form a fully integrated economic area. In
particular, the two city region labour markets are still relatively distinct. Only about
3% of the respective workforces commute from the Glasgow city region to Edinburgh
or vice versa. A larger and more integrated labour market could offer more productive
and more specialised jobs. Having reached what could be described as a critical
mass, the two economies would be more balanced, less prone to business and
economic cycles and better protected from external shocks. In short, a more
integrated labour market and economy would provide greater economic resilience
and increase potential opportunities. Furthermore, Scotland’s economic potential
would increase. In order to achieve this, both Glasgow and Edinburgh city regions
will need to place greater emphasis on integration by coordinating economic
development and fundamentally by improving connectivity, accessibility and transport
infrastructure quality.
There are undoubtedly European regions which share a similar dual city pattern, but
Glasgow and Edinburgh's proximity and their complementary structures make the
potential of their collaborative impact extremely significant. Economists who have
tried to measure this suggest that doubling city and city region size could result in up
to 8% productivity increases (Rosenthal and Strange, 2004; Venables, 2006).
Understanding the geography of economic development and key industries will be
critical to exploiting the opportunities that will be presented.
5.3 Productivity
Glasgow and Edinburgh cities and city regions currently have a production gap with
the top international performers. The primary reason for this gap is their relatively low
productivity rates. Improving this must be the major focus of any economic
development policy. In the long term, it is productivity which determines the economic
success, higher wages and living standards of any highly developed economy. A
world class transport system is recognised as one of the key enablers for enhancing
productivity and sustainable economic growth, through closer interaction between
complementary businesses, and improved use of scarce skills.
High speed rail can facilitate a one-off effect on the level of productivity (along with
focused economic development interventions) by enabling an increase in higher
value businesses that could result in a significant increase in productivity growth
rates. If sustained over a 20 year period of development this increased rate of growth
could enable the cities to close the production gap with the top international
performers. World class transport would support a sustained impact on productivity
23
level. Transport can support impacts on the growth rate of productivity by stimulating
innovation through its impact on agglomeration economies, inward investment and
international trade.
24
6 Policy Context
6.1 Strategic Framework
A full strategic and economic context for the development of High Speed Rail in
Scotland is essential to fully understanding Glasgow and Edinburgh city regions’
economic and regeneration role in Scotland and the potential contribution of HSR
hubs towards delivering a step change in economic performance.
Scottish Enterprise (SE) and Highlands and Islands Enterprise (HIE) continue to work
closely with Scottish Government particularly in relation to the long term transport
infrastructure investment plan to ensure that the future needs and opportunities of
business influence developments. SE and HIE prioritise projects to increase the
competitiveness of Scotland’s key industries and high growth businesses.
The importance of cities and city regions has been growing and is recognised
internationally. In response, Glasgow’s groundbreaking economic development
strategy, A Step Change for Glasgow, raised aspirations, and Edinburgh focused on
the pursuit of world class performance through the city region framework. Both cities
recognise that in collaboration, Glasgow and Edinburgh offer a complementary and
potentially world class economic powerhouse for Scotland in an increasingly
globalised and competitive market. Collaboration can deliver a wealth of increased
and additional benefits to both cities. A significant start has been made focused on
25
the most important areas of common interest, such as key sectors, connectivity and
international profile.
A well designed, accessible, vibrant city is essential for the attraction and retention of
a skilled workforce and business investment. A well developed transport
infrastructure, including intra-regional transportation and links to key business
locations are crucial to the development of the cities and the wider city regions.
Modern cities require competitive physical and electronic connectivity if they are to
compete effectively. For Glasgow and Edinburgh to improve their relative position
and compete at a world class level, it has to ensure that its connectivity for business
is world class, enabling fast, efficient and cost competitive in relation to the
movement of people, information and goods.
26
7 Transport Network
7.1 Connectivity Context
Glasgow and Edinburgh’s recent attractiveness for inward investment has increased
in recent years, not least by strengthening of its economic assets, including its major
transport interchanges and infrastructure, which bring people to the cities and open
up markets for the city region and Scottish economy. There is scope to further
improve the strengths and economic value of these interchanges. Being at the heart
of Scotland’s transport network, the enhancement of supporting facilities and a step
change improvement of its major transport interchanges are essential to achieve the
goal of establishing a world class identity and image of Glasgow and Edinburgh as
the gateways to Scotland and economic prosperity.
BAK Basel Economics view the accessibility of Glasgow and Edinburgh to the
European Continent as not particularly well developed. Currently, overland
connections to Continental Europe hardly play a role, because of distance, which
means that good air transportation is crucial. Generally, the geographical position of
a region is important. A good connection to a big global hub is viewed as significant
along with the availability of fast and efficient overland connections.
27
modes will maximise distributional benefits. Full integration with the existing and
upgraded Scottish transport network, particularly in the Glasgow and Edinburgh city
regions is fundamental to assuring the benefits of improved connectivity, and the
distribution of economic benefits throughout Scotland. City centre hub and spoke
models will provide for high levels of integration with local and city-region networks.
Critical to this will be a fast, efficient point to point link between Glasgow and
Edinburgh; although HSR is not a requirement, as few benefits would be accrued
from high speed operation over such a short distance.
Data from Greengauge21 suggests that around 55 to 60% of the HSR passengers at
Edinburgh would be from a wider area of Scotland. Edinburgh would be the principal
interchange for onward travel to much of Scotland, although Glasgow will be the
interchange for west and south-west. This suggests that the rail network centred on
Edinburgh could have to accommodate in the order of 2.5 million extra passengers
per year making connections with HSR services. The Strategic Transport Projects
Review has already approved a range of enhancements to rail services centred on
Edinburgh and Glasgow through the Edinburgh-Glasgow Improvement Plan. This
includes increase capacity between Edinburgh and Glasgow, and also from
Edinburgh to the north over the Forth including Aberdeen, Dundee and Inverness. In
addition the project to reopen the link between Airdrie and Bathgate provides further
capacity across the central belt. Part of the strategy will deliver two fast services
each hour between Edinburgh and Glasgow city centres. It is beyond the scope of
this study to quantify the specific increase in travel that HSR will generate within
Scotland. However it is noted that the enhancements approved in the STPR are
designed to cope with projected demand without HSR. An additional 2.5 million
passengers dispersing by rail from Waverley represents a very substantial further
increase in demand for capacity on the existing Scottish network. Specifically the
need for further capacity northwards across the Forth, which has seen relatively
modest expansion from EGIP is to be expected. Consultees have also stressed the
importance of further reducing travel times on the internal Scottish network so that
the benefits of High Speed Rail are not lost in slow access times from homes and
businesses outside the two major cities. Complementary investment in the existing
network is therefore essential to secure the maximum benefit from HSR itself.
28
of global connections, particularly new business routes from Scotland’s airports to the
European continent, is an essential element of improving international positioning
and competitiveness. As a result of the transfer of domestic air travel from plane to
train, domestic air travel will be significantly reduced to those regions (and principally
London) served by HSR, although it is to be expected that domestic services from
Inverness and Aberdeen will be less affected due to the greater distances involved.
Edinburgh, Glasgow and Prestwick Airports will in any case be better utilised as
international hubs rather than commuter airports for London, and airports can utilise
freed capacity to develop direct international business routes.
However close linkages with Heathrow as a major transport hub will remain important
to complement the direct international services from Scottish Airports. Consideration
must be given to the most effective way of ensuring connectivity by HSR with this
international hub and gateway to assure global connections for business.
29
8 Policy and Intervention
8.1 Integrated Policy and Intervention
At a city region level, transport, economic and spatial strategies across the UK have
not been as well integrated as in other countries, where concepts of smart growth
and transit oriented development are more deeply embedded. Innovative approaches
should be considered, including more streamlined planning regimes and use of
special development zones. Nevertheless, there is reason to believe that legislative
changes to the planning system in Scotland will provide an improved policy context
and a more streamlined system. The Planning (etc) Scotland Act 2006 includes
provision for a National Planning Framework for Scotland, larger city region strategic
development plans and a hierarchy of development including strategic development
Two strategic level plans will be covering the central belt of Scotland, allowing for
greater inter-regional collaboration. Moreover, the establishment of Regional
Transport Strategies and associated partnerships increases the scope for policy
integration at the regional level, between strategic development planning and
strategic transport planning. However, there may be a need to focus on delivery at
the national government level, to ensure that strategic transport priorities continue to
be aligned with National Planning Framework priorities.
The first National Planning Framework (NPF1), published in 2004, set out a strategy
for Scotland’s development to 2025. The preparation of a second National Planning
Framework (NPF2) is seen as providing an important vehicle. It guides Scotland’s
development to 2030, setting out strategic development priorities to support the
Scottish Government’s central purpose – sustainable economic growth. The Planning
etc. (Scotland) Act 2006 puts this and future iterations of the National Planning
Framework on a statutory footing.
The Framework is intended to play a key role in co-ordinating policies with a spatial
dimension and aligning strategic investment priorities. It will take forward the spatial
aspects of the Government Economic Strategy, highlighting the importance of place
and identifying priorities for investment to enable each part of the country to play to
its strengths. It provides the strategic spatial policy context for decisions and actions
by the Government and its agencies.
Planning authorities are required to take the Framework into account when preparing
development plans and it is a material consideration in the determination of planning
applications. This will streamline the planning process, to an extent, with regard to
proposals relating to HSR and wider infrastructure. Indeed, HSR links from the
Central Belt to London are identified within the National Planning Framework (NPF2)
30
as a ‘national development’, including the consideration of connections to the rest of
the rail network and effects on communities.
Now the National Planning Framework is on a statutory footing, with other reforms,
which became effective on 1 August 2009. In particular, there is a hierarchy of
development including ‘national developments’ designated in the National Planning
Framework, and also ‘major developments.’ This Act also introduces Strategic
31
Development Plans, which cover multiple local authority areas, placing spatial
planning within a regional context and allowing integration with other regional plans
and policies.
Strategic Development Plans are to be prepared for Scotland’s four largest city-
regions, Glasgow and the Clyde Valley and the wider Edinburgh City Region in
particular. They will form the ‘upper tier’ of the development plan framework.
This provides for a Central Belt of Scotland with two Strategic Development Plans for
the bulk of the area, including the critical corridors. This will have three main
benefits.
• Greater scope for integrated policy and plan-making within the regions and
sub-regions covered;
• Greater scope for collaboration between Strategic Development Plan
authorities in the Central Belt;
• Greater scope for integration of land-use planning with other policy areas at
the regional level, for example with the Regional Transport Partnerships.
32
There is evidence that strategic priority areas in both Glasgow and Edinburgh are
aligned with accessibility opportunities which will facilitate the flow of benefits from
the centres across the city regions. Further, the West Edinburgh Planning Framework
is an example (the only example in Scotland to date) of how planning, transport and
economic development can be integrated in the spatial context to deliver a strategic
development corridor. These recent strategic developments provide a model for a
more joined-up approach in the future.
14
National Planning Framework for Scotland 2
http://www.scotland.gov.uk/Resource/Doc/278232/0083591.pdf
15
Strategic Development Plans in Scotland: The Way Forward
http://www.scotland.gov.uk/Resource/Doc/212607/0084258.pdf
33
9 City Centres
9.1 City Centre Stations
Bringing HSR into Scotland’s big cities is therefore critical to maximise economic
impacts and wider benefits and could have a major impact on their identity, image
and behaviour, since their location characteristics (fast high quality access to the
centre of London, other UK cities and the European continent) and development
values would be transformed. Clustering higher value activities of the knowledge
economy around city centre hubs, such as financial and business services and
creative industries, would provide further momentum to success achieved over the
last decade. Furthermore, improved connectivity and accessibility would provide a
major boost to city and Scottish business and leisure tourism as well as a significant
if short to medium term boost to the construction industry.
Recent research has challenged the traditional view that the freight and distribution
industries are the only beneficiaries of agglomeration, and that such wider benefits
are most evident in sectors such as financial services. Both Glasgow and Edinburgh
are recognised as major centres of financial and business services. Both cities have
potential HSR terminus sites within reach of areas of prime demand for office space,
which also coincide with pockets of long-term decline and urban blight which are in
need of regeneration.
The planning and land use development processes around HSR stations need to be
streamlined to speed up delivery and encourage the location of the key sectors to
adjacent locations. Innovative approaches need to be considered to ensure benefits
are maximised.
Central Station has been identified through our consultation with key business as the
preferred option for Glasgow’s station and terminus. It is in the heart of the city
centre, close to the International Financial Services District and the best retail offer
outside London, and with easy access to the HE quarter and the Clyde Waterfront.
Furthermore, Central Station provides a unique development opportunity to create a
34
Glaswegian St Pancras. There have been recent improvements in this part of the city
centre, especially development along the river front in both directions. There is an
opportunity to improve the established urban structure around the station area. There
are pockets of development land around the station area. Development on this site
would have a significant impact on the city's identity, due to the central location.
The station opened in 1879 and has historic value. The internal space and prominent
north elevation are distinctive; the main entrance has an elaborate front elevation that
hides the impressive high structure behind. This façade is a prominent landmark.
Capacity issues at Central Station high level would need to be resolved. However
there is substantial space behind this façade, including redundant pillars from a
bridge deck over the Clyde that has long been removed, to expand the station area
though at a cost. It sits at the heart of a corridor of development opportunities,
stretching south-east and north-west of the city, all directly served from Glasgow
Central by rail, as well as services onward to the Clyde coast.
In Edinburgh, Waverley and Haymarket are possible HSR stations. Waverley Station
is the preferred option because it is in the heart of the city centre; but access from the
west is problematic, and there are serious constraints on development around it.
Nevertheless, Waverley is relatively close to under-used, derelict and vacant land
and buildings, and to redevelopment proposals including the St James Centre and
Caltongate; flagship developments that can provide the impetus for significant
regeneration.
There are plans to redevelop Waverley and to improve the links from the station to
the city. The Tram will pass by the station, although the nearest Tram stops will be
some distance from Waverley and do not constitute a tram - rail interchange as
convenient as Haymarket.
35
Any new development at Waverley would be severely restricted by the existing tight
urban structure and attractive historic setting of Edinburgh. It is part of a World
Heritage Site and therefore would be constrained by planning restrictions and various
onerous design restrictions. This would limit the potential for a station expansion.
Edinburgh is protective of its distinctive skyline, especially from public vantage points
and any alterations or height increase to the station would be visible from
surrounding locations, further limiting potential development opportunities.
This location is a landmark within the city centre with an impressive backdrop of
Edinburgh Castle and Princes Street Gardens. The location is very prominent
offering both advantages and disadvantages in terms of development.
Haymarket was traditionally a secondary station along a key arterial route to the city
centre with access to west Edinburgh’s financial service centres. It has experienced a
surge in demand with prime office developments in the West End and a mixed-use
development on the site. Haymarket is a gateway location with potential for
improvement. The site is in an area of strategic change, part of the masterplan for a
transport interchange at Haymarket, including integration with the Edinburgh Tram. It
is less central than Waverley and is constrained in terms of opportunities for
expansion, although higher densities would be more acceptable than at Waverley.
There is potential for reasonable design freedom. There are development and
redevelopment sites in the area that could offer opportunity for growth.
The Haymarket area has always been a transition area, separated from the city
centre and more sporadic in its urban form than at Waverley. The location good links
to the west compare with restricted connectivity with the east, due to the intervening
city centre. Visually the area is less impressive and less distinctive than Waverley.
The scale of surrounding buildings would limit development opportunity in terms of
height. The materials palette is less restrictive than in the city centre which could
offer more freedom in terms of architectural design.
36
At either location the national and local rail networks serve a wide hinterland, and the
Edinburgh Tram will provide access to a corridor of development opportunities
running from the Airport to the Waterfront.
Further enhancement of the city centres and their core uses would accelerate
economic development and regeneration opportunities across Scotland.
Furthermore, this would integrate and strengthen Glasgow and Edinburgh’s role as a
fully functional economic region and Scottish economic driver, and support global
ambitions by improving connectivity and increasing its investment attractiveness.
However, it is worth noting that HSR interchanges need to be connected and
integrated with the existing network and other key gateways or secondary hubs
through very efficient, attractive and sustainable links to maximise the benefits for the
surrounding regions and Scotland. Strategically located secondary hubs that focus
on key development sites and areas closely related to main railway stations, which
themselves have fast and frequent services to an HSR interchange, will play a major
role in spatial distribution and the development of secondary clusters outside
Edinburgh and Glasgow City Centres.
37
10 Lessons from UK Station Developments
10.1 UK Case Studies
The UK case studies present recent or planned major redevelopments of some of the
most significant interchanges in England. These include Kings Cross and St Pancras
International which has recently been opened, although the surrounding
redevelopment is still in progress, and plans for Birmingham New Street and
Manchester Victoria. The purpose of these case studies is to understand the nature
and potential scale of economic impacts of such high profile redevelopments of major
gateways. The studies suggest how major redevelopments of key gateways might
deliver a step change in the image of their surrounding areas, not least by creating
attractive places to live, work and for recreation. In particular, high profile station
redevelopments can intensify development and create conditions to bring higher
quality land uses which are generally not be associated with rail stations. Such
catalytic impacts could result in job creation, better use of available land, brownfield
regeneration, increase in land values, inward investments, increased consumer
spending and eventually a significant contribution towards the area’s economic
output.
38
10.2 Kings Cross and St Pancras International
The development is expected to generate between 24,800 and 29,500 direct jobs
after accounting for displacement and multiplier effects. It is further estimated that
without any positive intervention, local residents would account for between 7,500
and 8,800 jobs. The number of jobs created is expected to increase the potential total
expenditure in local services and shops, enabling them to increase income and
possibly expand and improve. Other significant social benefits include increased
open space availability as well as reduced perception and actual incidence of crime.
39
10.3 Birmingham New Street
The Gateway project is expected to contribute around £2bn to the wider region.
Furthermore, physical regeneration of the areas surrounding the station can
potentially lead to up to 10,000 new jobs created across the city. Redevelopment of
New Street station and regeneration of the surrounding area are also expected to
raise around £60 million in retail revenues. In total the net present value of the project
as estimated by the Department of Transport amounts to about £1.4bn.
40
10.4 Manchester Victoria
There has been careful integration of the site's historic features, which include listed
buildings and the remains of Arkwright's Mill. A sustainable drainage system ensures
water is stored and recycled as needed.
41
11 Land Use
11.1 Land Use and Enabling Infrastructure
In the Glasgow context, there are enabling infrastructure initiatives which will offer
scope for integration and the ‘flow’ of wider benefits. In particular the Commonwealth
Games should regenerate a significant area of the east end and central Glasgow;
and the existing rail network offers access to the wider suburban area, in addition to
the bus and metro services. This focuses on the rail network as offering closest
alignment with a future HSR terminal and the city core, although accessibility by
other modes should also be borne in mind. Map 11.1 below illustrates this
connectivity.
Map 11.1 Accessibility from Glasgow Central (and map legend for all maps)
42
Outwith the core, future opportunities will most likely arise in the planned strategic
business / employment land within the ‘Corridor of Growth’ promoted by the Structure
Plan. This seeks to promote a Corridor of Growth which linking the major centres of
employment and services to all communities, in particular the Priority Areas by the:
Map 11.2 below illustrates the connectivity to the opportunities in the Corridor.
Identified are:
Some 133ha of vacant and derelict land lies within 500m of the railway stations, with
some 22ha on 48 sites of less than 1ha, 52ha on 24 sites of between 1ha and 5ha,
and 59ha on six sites on land between 5ha and 25ha.
43
In addition to wider benefits from employment land development, there are potential
benefits from urban renewal and community growth. The Glasgow and Clyde Valley
Structure Plan identifies three wider Metropolitan Flagship Areas, in particular Clyde
Waterfront and Clyde Gateway, but also Ravenscraig and Motherwell.
Map 11.3 below shows the connectivity of these broad areas with the city centre,
brownfield and strategic industrial and business locations.
Underpinning the Metropolitan Flagship initiatives are Urban Renewal Areas and
Priority Areas. The Structure Plan identifies the major source of future development
land as brownfield urban land and identifies a number of priority areas for urban
renewal. The need for long-term dedicated programmes of action to tackle the scale
of vacant and derelict urban land in the area is identified. This is presented below in
Map 11.4, showing connectivity with the centre.
44
Map 11.4 Brownfield Opportunities, Strategic Business/Industrial Land, Urban
Renewal Areas and Priority Areas
© Crown Copyright. .All Rights Reserved. 1000 23 420 (2009)
Finally, the need to balance urban renewal with community growth is highlighted in
the Structure Plan, which identifies a number of Community Growth Areas.
The Glasgow and the Clyde Valley Structure Plan covers a wide metropolitan area,
and existing and planned infrastructure projects should provide scope for integration
with policy initiatives, focussed on the re-use of long-term vacant and derelict land, to
allow the flow of wider benefits outwards from the centre into the metropolitan area.
However, it is recognised that long-term action plans are needed, and these will need
to integrate with plans for HSR and wider connectivity.
The planning authorities in the Glasgow and the Clyde Valley area are more
established in delivering a wide-area strategic development plan than the authorities
in East Central Scotland. The Edinburgh and the Lothians Structure Plan, which is
the current Development Plan, will be replaced in 2015 by the South East Scotland
Strategic Development Plan centred upon Edinburgh and stretching into Fife, the
Borders and westwards to Falkirk, beyond the traditional hinterland of the Lothians. It
is necessary to look to the future South East Scotland Strategic Development Plan to
deliver policies which will enable the flow of wider benefits.
The Edinburgh Tram will start operating in 2011/2012. The first phase will link Leith
with Edinburgh Airport via Princes Street, Haymarket, Edinburgh Park and the Gyle
business and retail centres. An interchange is planned on the Fife-Edinburgh heavy
rail line to link with the Tram. The role of the bus service should not be overlooked;
45
this will continue to serve much of Edinburgh, particularly areas not served by the
Tram.
The relationship between connectivity to the centre and wider opportunities is shown
in Map 11.5. Major employment land (Class 1, Class 2, Class 3) is identified and
monitored by the City of Edinburgh Council. Some of this lies within the ‘Core
Development Areas’ identified in the Structure Plan, including the City Centre (1 on
map), the Waterfront (2 on map), Edinburgh Park / South Gyle / Sighthill (3 on map)
and Newbridge / Kirkliston / Ratho (4 on map). Other major areas include Granton
Waterfront, the South East Wedge, the west of the City Centre, and flagship
proposals for the St James Centre and Caltongate. The strategic West Edinburgh
corridor centred on the Airport and RBS headquarters should also be considered,
subject to a comprehensive planning framework integrating economic, transport and
land use planning and policy. There are fewer vacant and derelict sites within the
Edinburgh area than in Glasgow, but there are regeneration and redevelopment
opportunities that could arise from wider benefits.
Map 11.5 Edinburgh City Region: Tram and Rail Network, Brownfield
Opportunities, Strategic Employment Land and Core Development Areas
Within 500m of tram and rail stations, there are some 26 brownfield sites of up to 1ha
totalling 8ha, some 21 sites of between 1ha and 5ha totalling 42ha, and four sites of
between 5ha and 15ha totalling 42ha.
46
Map 11.6 Edinburgh City: Tram and Rail Network, Brownfield Opportunities,
Strategic Employment Land and Core Development Areas
© Crown Copyright. .All Rights Reserved. 1000 23 420 (2009)
The overriding issue is the connectivity between Edinburgh and Glasgow. These
cities need to operate as a single bi-polar economic region, or a ‘super cluster’, to
allow maximum benefit, and to benefit the other centres between these two cities.
The Glasgow-Edinburgh heavy rail journey currently takes some 50 minutes, with a
train every 15 minutes. This will seem relatively more distant and slower compared to
possible HSR journey times southwards. Nevertheless, the planned electrification of
the Glasgow-Edinburgh rail line will allow fastest journey times of around 35 minutes
and increased frequencies of six trains per hour.
47
The development of mid-urban business parks using industrial land closely linked
(economically and geographically) with the expanding city centres in the hub and
spoke model should be considered a priority. The planning system can affect this
distribution by managing the redevelopment or change of use of existing land or
buildings, or by guiding the location and form of new development. In both Edinburgh
and Glasgow this strategic direction to land-use allocation, driven by considerations
of connectivity, can be seen to be a continuation of recent practices. Further
consideration should be given to housing and population projections, as these may
constrain the uptake of jobs created.
It is important to consider the office market prior to the recession. Although the rate
and duration of recovery are uncertain, the property market will return to pre-
recessionary levels at some point. Moreover, the wider economic benefits of HSR
are a medium to long term phenomenon, so it can be assumed that the starting point
may well be the pre-recession market position.
Edinburgh and Glasgow have very different characteristics with regard to office
17
supply and demand. In recent years , there has been little growth in demand in
Edinburgh, although it is believed there is pent-up demand, particularly in the legal
sector. Glasgow, by contrast, has displayed greater growth, with increased financial
services activity and inward investment. In both cities there is a shortage of grade A
accommodation, particularly with the completion of flagship developments in both
cities. Nevertheless, there has been a clear trend of static or declining rental values
in Edinburgh, although Glasgow has remained buoyant.
When compared to other regional cities, the Midlands performed better up to 2007.
Birmingham and Manchester experienced higher prime rentals (and growth of around
10%), Edinburgh and Glasgow were equal in terms of prime rentals and on a par with
Bristol, and Glasgow’s growth outstripped other locations.
The impact of the recession on office property market has been significant.
18 19
Research indicates that rentals in both Edinburgh and Glasgow are forecast to
decline slightly (from £29 per sq ft per year to around £25 per sq ft per year), before
modest improvement commencing in 2013.
48
12 Governance and Leadership
12.1 Political Support and Governance
It is clear that changes in governance are needed to support more joined-up action
within both national and local government, and between national decisions on HSR
routing and local/regional action on complementary measures. Unresolved, this could
be the biggest barrier to reaping the full rewards of HSR.
Scottish Government leadership is essential to making the case for HSR in Scotland
within the first phase of development. The future vision should be developed from
consensus and have the support and focus of all stakeholders and partners. It is also
critical that business leaders, higher education principals and others are fully
engaged. Clear communication to gain and maintain the general public’s support is
essential.
Innovative approaches to policy and intervention will be key to securing the maximum
benefits from HSR. For example, national planning framework sets the right context
for delivering HSR, but needs to be extended to include, not just the infrastructure,
but also the land allocations around the stations, so that appropriate land is made
available for business and industry. There should be a presumption in favour of
planning consent for appropriate business uses around HSR hubs.
49
• Establish mission, values and principles
• Clear strategy and objectives
• Comprehensive and integrated implementation plan
• Clear leadership and communication
• Clarity of roles and responsibilities (individual and partnership)
• Business and technical excellence
• Appropriate resourcing for long term management
• Risk management
• Critical success factors
• Key performance indicators and performance management
Effective governance provides the foundation to build and develop the vision and
strategy to realise an agreed vision and objectives and monitor performance.
50
13 Conclusions
13.1 Key actions
HSR provides Scotland with a major opportunity for significant economic growth and
world-class business development. Edinburgh and Glasgow city centres are at the
heart of these businesses. However, HSR alone will not deliver these benefits, but
requires the positive support of government, local government and business to fully
realise the opportunities.
With many of the tools already developed, and some of the key policies and
programmes already in place, it is less a question of what, but how these can be
implemented effectively.
Twenty-five actions have been identified. The development of an agreed and shared
action plan with responsibilities and timescales will be critical to achieving ownership
and alignment. Every action will require lead responsibility, support and commitment
from partners and close partnership working to realise HSR and maximise its
benefits.
Strategic:
1. HSR implies a timescale of two or three decades, and varying costs for each
stage. Scotland’s involvement in the first phase is an absolute priority for
Scotland. A strong and robust case needs to be sustained throughout the
planning phase.
4. Strategic thinking at a national, regional and city level is aligned, but this
consensus will be tested as hard strategic choices are made. Consider how to
engage and secure support from a wide range of stakeholders and partners
across Scotland. This includes fully engaging business leaders, higher
education principals and others. Clear communication to gain and maintain
the general public’s support is essential.
5. Consider the nature and potential of the relationship with London and other
UK cities:
51
• For key sectors, particularly financial services, HSR will further boost
Scotland’s cost competitive advantages. Other sectors of potential
business benefit include life sciences in Cambridge, digital media in
Manchester;
• Discussions should take place to identify benefits from closer
collaboration and common cause with other UK cities such as
Manchester, Leeds and Newcastle.
Economic Development:
10. Adopt strategies that recognise that wider economic benefits accrue only over
the longer term. Direct benefits decline over time, indirect benefits will reach a
plateau.
12. Land use and infrastructure plans, policies and proposals provide the
opportunity to spread wider benefits intra-regionally. However, there may be a
need to focus on delivery at the national government level, to ensure that
strategic transport priorities continue to be aligned with National Planning
Framework priorities.
13. Recent changes to the planning system in Scotland may provide an improved
policy context and more streamlined system, but still consider innovative
approaches to transport, economic and spatial strategies, including more
streamlined planning regimes and special development zones.
14. Edinburgh: look to the future South East Scotland Strategic Development
Plan to enable the flow of wider benefits. Key enabling infrastructure
initiatives are Edinburgh Tram, waterfront and city centre developments.
52
15. Estates in the West of Scotland in particular with predominantly industrial land
use should be carefully assessed, to test their appropriateness for future
requirements. Consider for release any employment land which is unsuitable
for future and unviable for redevelopment.
16. Employment land is needed to support the growth target of an area. Also
need to test the employment land implications of other possible economic
outcomes in the area.
17. Development of mid-urban business parks using industrial land closely linked
(economically and geographically) with expanding city centres in the hub and
spoke model should be considered a priority.
Transport:
18. There must be a coherent and consistent set of investments that are binding
upon lower tier authorities and organisations. Any assessment of transport
needs should be based on holistic benefits and development strategies, not
modes looked at in isolation.
19. Scottish Enterprise and Highlands and Islands Enterprise to work closely with
the Scottish Government on the long term transport infrastructure investment
plan.
20. A fast, efficient point to point link between Glasgow and Edinburgh is critical.
May also require strategically located secondary hubs focussed on key
development areas.
21. Glasgow: focus on the rail network as offering closest alignment with a future
HSR terminal and the city core, but bear in mind access by other modes:
• Outwith the core, future opportunities will most likely arise in the
planned ‘Corridor of Growth’ promoted by the Structure Plan;
• Potential benefits from urban renewal and community growth. The
Glasgow and Clyde Valley Structure Plan identifies Clyde Waterfront
and Gateway, Ravenscraig and Motherwell;
• However, long-term action plans are needed; these must integrate
with plans for HSR and wider connectivity.
22. The biggest economic gains will be in the city centres; partners must work
together with a key sector focus to achieve these through:
• the provision of effective high quality gateway hubs in each city;
• the provision of accessible sites for development in the city centres
and at satellite nodes well connected to the city centres; and
• the development of both national and local transport networks feeding
into the hubs.
23. Other areas will not experience the same benefits; therefore, the Scottish rail
network must continue to develop to ensure these areas gain as many
benefits as possible. Integration with the wider transport infrastructure;
connections significantly more integrated, effective, efficient, faster, reliable,
safe, affordable.
53
Governance
54
Appendix 1 – Bibliography
Presentations and Papers
Capturing the Value of High Speed Rail, presentation by Renfe to High Speed Rail Summit,
(September 2009)
Complementary Measures to Facilitate Regional Benefits from High Speed Rail, Greengauge
21 (June 2009)
The Economic Effects of High Speed Rail Investment, De Rus, (2008)
The Economic Impact of the California High-Speed Rail in the Sacramento/Central Valley
Area, Kantor, (2008).
The Eddington Transport Study: The Case for Action, Eddington (2006)
European Regeneration Experience, Greengauge 21 (2006)
Evidence on the nature and sources of agglomeration economies, Rosenthal and Strange
(2004)
Fuel Efficiency of Travel in the Twentieth Century, Lawyer (2002)
Gares TGV et nouvelles dynamiques urbaines en centre ville: Le cas des villes desservies
par le TGV Sud-Est [Urban stations TGV and new dynamics of urban centres: the case of the
cities served by the South-eastern TGV] Mannone (1997)
High Speed Rail: International Comparisons, Steer Davies Gleave (2004)
High Speed Trains and the Development and Regeneration of Cities, Greengauge 21 (2006)
HST Impact Study, South East England Development Agency (2008)
Impact of High Speed Railway Accessibility on the Locational Choices of Office
Establishments, Willigers (2006)
The Likely Macro-economic Benefits and Employment Impacts of Investments in Trans-
European Transport Network; European Commission (1997)
Monitoring the Effect of the Thalys High Speed Train, Ettema et al (2006)
Network Rail: High Speed Rail Investment; An Overview of the Literature, Nash (undated)
The Non-Transport Impacts of High Speed Trains on Regional Economic Development,
Kamel et al (2008)
OECD Joint Transport Research Centre Discussion Paper 2008-16, De Rus (revised October
2008)
Shifts in Economic Geography and their Causes, Venables (2006)
Spain's high-speed train the envy of Obama, Valencia Life, (April 2009)
UK Rail, A Case for Investment, Inversys (February 2009)
Policy
National Planning Framework for Scotland, Scottish Government (2009)
Strategic Development Plans in Scotland: The Way Forward, Scottish Government (2009)
Glasgow and the Clyde Valley Structure Plan 2000
Edinburgh and the Lothians Structure Plan to 2015
Data Sources
Scottish Vacant and Derelict Land Survey, Scottish Government (2008).
Edinburgh and Glasgow Office Commentary, GVA Grimley (2007)
Property Market Overview, DTZ (2009)
55
Office Market Research for Edinburgh and Glasgow, DTZ (2009)
Mid Year Population Estimates 1998 and 2007, NOMIS
Annual Population Survey 2004, 2005, 2007 and 2008, NOMIS
Gross Value Added 2006, Office of National Statistics online
Annual Survey of Hours and Earnings 1999-2008, NOMIS
Annual Business Inquiries 1998 and 2007, NOMIS
VAT Registration/De-registration Data and Annual Population Survey 2000-2007, NOMIS
56
Appendix 2 – Socio-Economic Baseline
Introduction
This analysis sets out the prevailing socio-economic conditions in the Edinburgh and
Glasgow, the two likely destinations for the HSR Stations on the envisaged UK wide
network. In particular, the conditions appraised include demographics, characteristics
of the labour supply, demand for labour, sectoral strengths and dynamism of the local
business base.
It also presents a similar analysis for the wider city regions, within which these
economies function. In particular, the city regions have been defined as following:
Further, the analysis compares the performance of cities and their respective city
regions against Scottish and Great Britain-wide benchmarks.
Demographics
In 2007, Edinburgh and Glasgow accounted for some 20% of Scotland’s total
resident population. Further, the two city regions combined accounted for around
60% of the Scottish population base. The population of Edinburgh and its wider city
region grew by 5% respectively between 1998 and 2007. This growth is nearly four
times higher the growth of population in Scotland. In comparison, both Glasgow’s
and its city region’s population base shrunk by approximately 1%.
With regards to the age structure, both Edinburgh and Glasgow appear to have a
much stronger presence of younger members of the workforce (aged 20 – 34 years).
This age group has expanded significantly in Edinburgh between 1998 and 2007.
The presence of 20 – 34 year olds has also grown in Glasgow during the same ten
year period. However, the growth achieved in Glasgow was nearly half of the rate
achieved in Edinburgh. The high quality higher and further education infrastructure of
the cities could be accountable for such trends. In comparison, this pool of youth has
declined in both city regions, Scotland and Great Britain.
57
Table 1: Population: Age Structure (Source: Mid Year Population Estimates 1998 and
2007, NOMIS)
Population in 1998
Age Bands City of Edinburgh Glasgow City Edinburgh City Region Glasgow City Region Scotland Great Britain
Aged 0 - 9 years 48,000 10.8% 71,100 12.1% 146,100 12.0% 219,500 12.4% 617,100 12.2% 7,265,700 12.8%
Aged 10 - 19 years 51,300 11.5% 72,900 12.4% 148,700 12.2% 228,300 12.9% 641,700 12.6% 7,124,000 12.5%
Aged 20 - 34 years 117,000 26.2% 143,500 24.4% 272,200 22.3% 384,400 21.8% 1,075,000 21.2% 12,047,300 21.2%
Aged 35 - 49 years 92,500 20.7% 117,300 20.0% 260,700 21.4% 375,300 21.3% 1,083,600 21.3% 11,752,600 20.7%
Aged 50 - 64 years 67,700 15.2% 88,600 15.1% 203,700 16.7% 292,700 16.6% 867,000 17.1% 9,557,000 16.8%
Aged 65 - 79 years 52,300 11.7% 71,900 12.2% 144,300 11.8% 207,400 11.7% 610,000 12.0% 6,813,300 12.0%
Aged 80 and over 17,400 3.9% 22,000 3.7% 44,900 3.7% 58,300 3.3% 182,600 3.6% 2,237,300 3.9%
All Age Bands 446,200 100.0% 587,300 100.0% 1,220,600 100.0% 1,765,900 100.0% 5,077,000 100.0% 56,797,200 100.0%
Population in 2007
Age Bands City of Edinburgh Glasgow City Edinburgh City Region Glasgow City Region Scotland Great Britain
Aged 0 - 9 years 43,200 9.2% 59,900 10.3% 135,600 10.6% 191,200 10.9% 548,600 10.7% 6,786,500 11.5%
Aged 10 - 19 years 50,000 10.7% 68,100 11.7% 153,400 12.0% 217,900 12.4% 632,300 12.3% 7,468,000 12.6%
Aged 20 - 34 years 130,300 27.8% 151,900 26.1% 265,500 20.7% 357,400 20.4% 976,100 19.0% 11,636,300 19.7%
Aged 35 - 49 years 101,400 21.7% 129,300 22.2% 291,200 22.7% 401,400 22.9% 1,166,300 22.7% 13,119,400 22.2%
Aged 50 - 64 years 75,000 16.0% 89,600 15.4% 234,600 18.3% 313,200 17.9% 975,300 19.0% 10,670,200 18.0%
Aged 65 - 79 years 48,200 10.3% 61,500 10.6% 147,500 11.5% 203,900 11.6% 628,800 12.2% 6,848,800 11.6%
Aged 80 and over 20,200 4.3% 21,800 3.7% 54,000 4.2% 67,000 3.8% 216,900 4.2% 2,687,000 4.5%
All Age Bands 468,300 100.0% 582,100 100.0% 1,281,800 100.0% 1,752,000 100.0% 5,144,300 100.0% 59,216,200 100.0%
Table 2: Population: Age Structure (Source: Mid Year Population Estimates 1998 and
2007, NOMIS)
Change in the Age Structure between 1998 and 2007
As highlighted earlier, the economic role of Edinburgh and Glasgow implies that the
cities have a comparatively larger supply of working age residents compared to the
Scottish and Great Britain-wide benchmarks. Further, the proportion of working age
residents in the cities is greater than that in their respective city regions.
The supply of labour (working age population), grew at a significant rate in Edinburgh
and Glasgow, compared to the growth achieved by the Scottish labour market
between 1998 and 2007. Further, the workforce in the Edinburgh City Region also
achieved a significant growth during the same period. However, Glasgow City Region
achieved a small growth of 1.1% during the ten year period.
58
Table 1: Availability of Working Age Population (Source: Mid Year Population
Estimates 1998 and 2007, NOMIS)
Working Age Working Age
Population as a Population as a Percentage change
Working Age Working Ae Population
Working Age Population percentage of total percentage of total between 1998 and
Population in 1998 in 2007
resident population in resident population in 2007
1998 2007
City of Edinburgh 291,900 65.4% 318,100 67.9% 9.0%
Glasgow City 366,100 62.3% 388,500 66.7% 6.1%
Edinburgh City Region 770,800 63.1% 818,500 63.9% 6.2%
Glasgow City Region 1,102,700 62.4% 1,115,300 63.7% 1.1%
Scotland 3,168,100 62.4% 3,226,600 62.7% 1.8%
Great Britain 34,759,000 61.2% 36,815,100 62.2% 5.9%
Economic Activity rate of an area’s working age population is a proxy for the
dynamism of its workforce. At a rate of nearly 80%, Edinburgh’s and its wider city
region’s working age population appears to be more dynamic than most other
comparators. On the other hand, the economic activity rate of Glasgow is nearly ten
percentage points below the performance of Edinburgh City Region. On a positive
note, the economic activity rate in Glasgow City Region is nearly five percentage
points higher than the city’s average.
The economic activity across all areas of analysis increased only marginally between
2004 and 2008. Areas such as Edinburgh, Edinburgh City Region and Scotland,
which are operating at very high economic activity rates, such trends are acceptable.
However, similar growth trends for Glasgow suggest a lack of sustainable
employment opportunities for the local working age population to keep them
economically active.
59
Figure 4: Economic Activity Rate (Source: Annual Population Survey 2004 and 2008,
NOMIS)
Economic Activity
78.8%
Great Britain 78.2%
79.6%
Scotland 79.0%
76.0%
Glasgow City Region 75.5%
81.5%
Edinburgh City Region 81.1%
71.1%
Glasgow City 70.4%
79.9%
City of Edinburgh 79.7%
64.0% 66.0% 68.0% 70.0% 72.0% 74.0% 76.0% 78.0% 80.0% 82.0%
In addition to a low economic activity rate, Glasgow suffers from a very high
unemployment rate. However, on a positive note, the city’s unemployment rate has
been gradually declining since 2005.
10.0%
9.0%
8.0%
Percentage of Economically Active Population
7.0%
6.0%
5.0%
4.0%
3.0%
2.0%
1.0%
0.0%
Unemployment Rate 2004 Unemployment Rate 2005 Unemployment Rate 2006 Unemployment Rate 2007 Unemployment Rate 2008
City of Edinburgh Glasgow City Edinburgh City Region Glasgow City Region Scotland Great Britain
Nearly half of Edinburgh’s working age population possesses a degree compared to
approximately a third in most other comparators. The local educational infrastructure
60
in Edinburgh along with the City’s economic structure could be viewed as a key driver
for such a high quality labour supply.
100%
6% 9%
10% 12% 11%
14% 15% 15% 17%
18% 19%
90% 10% 24% 8%
7% 7%
9% 7% 7%
7% 8%
7% 7%
80% 9%
Percentage of Working Age Population
8% 6%
10%
7% 14% 11% 11%
10%
13% 14% 8% 14% 11%
70%
9% 18%
17%
60% 13% 18% 18% 16%
18% 17%
19% 18% 19%
17%
50%
19%
21%
18% 19%
20% 20%
40% 18% 18%
16% 18%
30%
43% 45%
20% 37%
33% 34% 32%
28% 29% 31% 31% 30%
27%
10%
0%
City of City of Glasgow Glasgow Edinburgh Edinburgh Glasgow Glasgow Scotland Scotland Great Great
Edinburgh Edinburgh City (2005) City (2008) City Region City Region City Region City Region (2005) (2008) Britain Britain
(2005) (2008) (2005) (2008) (2005) (2005) (2005) (2008)
Working Age Population with NVQ 4+ Working Age Population with NVQ 3 Working Age Population with NVQ 2
Working Age Population with NVQ 1 Working Age Population with 'Other' Qualifications Working Age Population with No Qualifications
Mirroring Edinburgh’s skills base, the City also boasts of a significant proportion of
employment in high quality jobs, namely in managerial, professional and technical
occupations. In particular, more than half of Edinburgh’s workforce is employed in
high value adding occupations. In comparison, Glasgow City and all other
comparators have a nearly 40% of their workforce employed in high value adding
occupations.
Also worth noting is the low proportion of lower quality jobs (plant and process
operators and elementary occupations) in Edinburgh, compared to all other
comparators. However, the number of these jobs and their percentage share of such
jobs in the local economy in Edinburgh have increased between 2005 and 2008. In
comparison, all other comparators witnessed the opposite trends.
61
Figure 7: Employment by Occupations (Source: Annual Population Survey 2005 and
2008, NOMIS)
Occupational Structure: Employment by Professions
100%
8.5% 8.8% 11.7% 11.4% 11.3% 10.1% 11.7% 11.0% 11.3% 11.6% 11.4%
12.4%
90% 3.2% 3.8%
6.9% 6.8% 6.9% 7.3% 7.5% 7.1%
8.4% 6.9% 7.2% 8.1% 7.9% 7.5%
8.1%
Percentage of Employment in ...
0%
City of City of Glasgow Glasgow Edinburgh Edinburgh Glasgow Glasgow Scotland Scotland Great Great
Edinburgh Edinburgh City (2005) City (2008) City City City City (2005) (2008) Britain Britain
(2005) (2008) Region Region Region Region (2005) (2008)
(2005) (2008) (2005) (2008)
.. managerial and senior officials positions .. professional occupations .. associate prof & tech occupations
.. administrative and secretarial occupations .. skilled trades occupations .. personal service occupations
.. sales and customer service occupations .. process, plant and machine operatives .. elementary occupations
Glasgow and Edinburgh are Scotland's largest cities, some 46 miles (75 kilometres)
apart in Scotland's Central Belt. The cities, together, account for more than 30% of
Scotland’s economic output. Considering that the two cities only house approximately
20% of Scotland’s population base, the high contributions towards the Scottish GVA
implies above average per capita GVA in Edinburgh and Glasgow. However,
Edinburgh’s more skilful workforce implies that the City boasts of some of the most
productive (highest per capita GVA) workers in Great Britain.
The report suggests that academics in the past have referred to the potential of
collaboration between the two cities. In particular, the report suggests that Glasgow
and Edinburgh working together offers the opportunity to create critical mass of
population, services and infrastructure between the 2 cities, which public policy has
often considered in isolation, despite their relative proximity, so that they cross the
metropolitan threshold and compete more effectively against larger, more prosperous
locations.
Furthermore the document states that there are undoubtedly European regions which
share a similar dual city pattern, but Glasgow and Edinburgh's proximity, and their
very different characters as cities make the prospects of their collaborative impact so
potentially exciting. A view among economists who have tried to measure this is that
doubling city size could lead to a sizeable 3-8% increase in productivity (Rosenthal
and Strange, 2004; Venables, 2006). Glasgow : Edinburgh Collaboration Initiative
states that transport infrastructure investment can play a key role in achieving such
economic gain.
62
Table 8: Gross Value Added (Source: Office of National Statistics, 2006)
Gross Value Added (2006) Per Capital Gross Value
Areas
(in Millions) Added (2006)
City of Edinburgh 14,192 30,620
Glasgow City 14,867 25,602
Edinburgh City Region 26,588 17,879
Glasgow City Region 31,963 16,387
Scotland 93,361 18,246
England 985,477 19,413
Edinburgh’s skills base and its productivity suggest that the city has the highest
average annual wage of full time workers, when compared to Glasgow, Scotland and
Great Britain. The average wage in 2008 was £26,153, nearly 12% more than the
average full time wage in Glasgow City, and 9% more than the average wage earned
in Great Britain.
However the gap in average wage between the Glasgow and Edinburgh has not
always been so prevalent. In 1999 the gap in income between the two cities was only
6% (compared to 12% in 2008). This could be attributed to the local city’s local
educational infrastructure and attainment, economic structure, and an improving
perception of Edinburgh being a desirable and wealthy place in which people want to
live, thus attracting a more affluent population.
In 1999, a full time equivalent in Edinburgh earned 13% more than someone living in
the Glasgow City Region, however by 2008 this gap has been narrowed to just 8%,
suggesting that higher earners working in Glasgow prefer to live outside the city,
while top earners in Edinburgh prefer to remain within it; this also explains the
disparity between average income in Edinburgh City and the Edinburgh City Region.
63
Figure 9: Average Annual Earnings (Source: Annual Survey of Hours and Earnings
1999-2008, NOMIS)
Wage Structure
£24,027
Great Britain £16,914
£25,230
Scotland £17,866
£24,219
Glasgow City Region £16,280
£23,527
Edinburgh City Region £16,382
£23,631
Glasgow City £17,397
£26,153
City of Edinburgh £18,383
Average Annual Wage of Full Time Workers in 1999 Average Annual Wage of Full Time Workers in 2008
Employment Base
Total employment within an area is a critical factor to understand its economic vitality
and demand for its workforce. In 1998 there were over 24 million people employed in
Great Britain, a figure which had risen by 9.4% by 2007 to over 26 million. The
employment levels in 2007 in Great Britain relate to approximately 0.72 jobs per
working age population. This was higher than the job density of 0.69 in 1998,
suggesting an increase in demand for workers nationally.
Table 10: Employment in 1998 and 2007 (Source: Annual Business Inquiry 1998 and
2007, NOMIS)
Total Total Change
Areas Employment Employment between 1998
1998 2007 and 2007
Employment density in Scotland rose at a more escalated rate than that of the rest of
Great Britain over the ten year period. This greater increase in demand for workers in
Scotland is partly due to the above average increase in number of jobs between
1998 and 2007 (11.4% in Scotland compared to 9.4% in Great Britain).
Historically, both Edinburgh and Glasgow have operated at a very high employment
density. Both cities had 0.95 jobs per working age population, more than 25% more
than in their respective city regions and Scotland. This highlights the economic
64
significance of the cities as hubs of economic activity. This trend has continued.
However in 2008, Glasgow had more jobs than working people with 1.02 jobs
available per person, surpassing Edinburgh which had 0.97 jobs per person.
Figure 11: Job Density (Source: Annual Business Inquiry and Annual Population
Survey 1998 and 2007, NOMIS)
Demand for Labour
0.72
Great Britain 0.69
0.74
Scotland 0.67
0.75
Glasgow City Region 0.67
0.74
Edinburgh City Region 0.71
1.02
Glasgow City 0.95
0.97
City of Edinburgh 0.95
Number of jobs per working age population in 1998 Number of jobs per working age population in 2007
Sectoral Strengths
Edinburgh’s economy is skewed towards the financial and business services sector,
which currently accounts for nearly one third of the local employment opportunities.
Other key sectors include public administration, wholesale and retail, health and
social work. On a promising note, all but one of the city’s staple sectors has
expanded in employment terms between 1998 and 2007. In particular, the wholesale
and retail sector has contracted by 5% over the ten year period. Other sectors,
currently providing more than 10,000 jobs each in Edinburgh and suffering from
decline include manufacturing and construction industries. On the other hand hotels /
catering, transport storage / communications and other services sectors, which
provide more than 15,000 jobs each in Edinburgh have grown between 1998 and
2007.
65
Table 12: Percentage of Employment by Industrial Sectors (Source: Annual Business
Inquiry 1998 and 2007, NOMIS)
Percentage of employment by Industrial Sectors in 1998
City of Glasgow Edinburgh Glasgow Great
Sectors (1998) Scotland
Edinburgh City City Region City Region Britain
Agriculture, forestery and fishing 0.4% 0.0% 0.6% 0.1% 0.7% 0.3%
Mining 0.1% 0.0% 0.3% 0.1% 1.3% 0.3%
Manufacturing 8.8% 9.0% 16.0% 14.7% 15.3% 16.7%
Electricity, gas and water supply 1.1% 1.7% 0.8% 1.1% 0.9% 0.5%
Construction 4.1% 5.4% 4.8% 7.3% 6.5% 4.6%
Wholesale/retail distribution; repair 13.5% 14.3% 15.3% 16.4% 16.3% 18.0%
Hotels and catering 6.5% 6.2% 7.2% 6.0% 7.3% 6.5%
Transport storage and communications 5.0% 6.0% 4.5% 6.3% 5.4% 5.8%
Financial and business services 27.8% 22.1% 19.5% 16.6% 15.3% 18.7%
Public services,admin and defence 16.0% 17.9% 14.5% 14.3% 14.1% 13.4%
Health and social work 11.2% 11.5% 11.2% 11.7% 12.0% 10.4%
Other service activities 5.6% 5.7% 5.3% 5.4% 5.0% 4.7%
Total Employment 100.0% 100.0% 100.0% 100.0% 100.0% 100.0%
The Edinburgh City Region has a slightly different economic structure. The city
region has a lower proportion of jobs in the financial and business services sector.
On the other hand, the area has a much stronger manufacturing sector compared to
Edinburgh City. Furthermore, the city region appears to have a key sectoral strength
in the other services sector.
66
Glasgow historically had a weaker financial and business services sector. However,
recent investment in creating a new financial district has improved the sector’s
prospects in the City. Like Edinburgh, other key sectors in Glasgow include public
administration, wholesale and retail, health and social work. All but one of the city’s
staple sectors has expanded in employment terms between 1998 and 2007. In
particular, the public administration has contracted by 2% over the ten year period.
Other sectors, currently providing more than 15,000 jobs each in Glasgow and
suffering from decline include manufacturing, construction and other services
industries. On the other hand hotels / catering, transport storage / communications,
which provide more than 20,000 jobs each in Glasgow, have grown between 1998
and 2007.
Despite the difference in the economic structure of the two cities, the economic
structure of Glasgow City Region is very similar to that of Edinburgh City Region, with
similar sectoral breakdown. This said, as demonstrated in the table above, the
prospects of these sectors have been quite different in the two city regions.
Figure 14: Sectoral Strengths (Source: Annual Business Inquiry 2007, NOMIS)
Sectoral Strenghts: Location Quotients in 2007 (benchmarked against Great Britain)
Manufacturing
1.50
1.25
Other service activities Construction
1.00
0.75
0.50
0.00
City of Edinburgh Glasgow City Edinburgh City Region Glasgow City Region Scotland Great Britain
Business Base
Edinburgh and Glasgow, together, account for some 22% of Scotland’s business
base. Further, the two city regions account for more than half of Scotland’s
businesses. The business base in Edinburgh grew by 12% between 1998 and 2007
compared to a 16% growth in Great Britain. The business base of Scotland and
Edinburgh City Region has been much slower than this rate over the ten year period.
Additionally, the growth of business base in Glasgow and its wider city region was
even slower at 4% and 6.8% respectively, during the analysis period.
67
Table 15: Businesses in the Area (Source: Annual Business Inquiry 1998 and 2007,
NOMIS)
Number of Number of Change
Areas Businesses Businesses between 1998
1998 2007 and 2007
Strong performance of Edinburgh’s business base between 1998 and 2007 has
allowed the city to have a much higher density of businesses than most other parts of
Scotland. Further, it has allowed the city to reduce its reliance on relatively large
businesses. However, with an average size of 16 employees per business and some
60 enterprises per 1,000 working age population, even Edinburgh’s business base
appears to be underperforming compared to Great Britain.
Table 16: Comparative Business Stock (Source: Annual Business Inquiry and Annual
Population Survey 2007, NOMIS)
Avegare Size of Number of
Businesses (number Businesses per
Areas
of employees per 1,000 working age
business) population
City of Edinburgh 16 60
Glasgow City 19 53
Edinburgh City Region 14 52
Glasgow City Region 16 47
Scotland 14 55
Great Britain 11 65
New businesses are usually the source of ‘real’ new employment opportunities and
wealth creation in an area. VAT registration data is a good proxy to assess an area’s
ability to create new businesses. On a similar note, VAT de-registration data provides
an assessment of the resilience of new businesses that sustain themselves through
their early development period. Hence, VAT registration net of de-registration or net
business formation provides an assessment of the area’s entrepreneurial culture and
the supply / quality of infrastructure to support business creation.
Net business formation activity in Edinburgh has been much better than Scotland.
Further, Edinburgh’s performance is comparable to that of Great Britain. Glasgow
has been one of the worst performers nationally in terms of net creation of new
businesses. At an average of 4.6 net new enterprises created per annum per 10,000
working age population, Glasgow’s performance highlights the prevalence poor
demand (culture / attitude of potential entrepreneurs) and supply conditions
(business support infrastructure) related to enterprise activity.
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Figure 17: Net Business Creation: 2000 - 2007 (Source: VAT Registration/De-
registration Data and Annual Population Survey 2000 - 2007, NOMIS)
Business Creation (VAT Registrations Minus VAT De-registrations)
20.0
Net VAT registrations per 10,000 working age population
15.0
10.0
5.0
0.0
Net Business Net Business Net Business Net Business Net Business Net Business Net Business Net Business
Formation 2000 Formation 2001 Formation 2002 Formation 2003 Formation 2004 Formation 2005 Formation 2006 Formation 2007
-5.0
City of Edinburgh Glasgow City Edinburgh City Region Glasgow City Region Scotland Great Britain
Figure 18: Average Net Business Formation (Source: VAT Registration/ De-
registration Data and Annual Population Survey 2000 and 2007, NOMIS)
Net Business Formation (VAT Registration Minus VAT De-registration) per 10,000
working age population: Average for 2000 to 2007
Scotland, 6.4
Net Business Formation (VAT Registration Minus VAT De-registration) per 10,000 working age population: Average for 2000 to 2007
Lack of dynamism of Glasgow’s business base is also exemplified through reliance of
the economy of large employers from struggling employment sectors. This said, the
recent investments in the financial and business services sectors to some extent
appear to have offset the negative effects of loss of businesses from nearly all
significant sectors in Glasgow.
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Table 19: Change in Business Stock by Industrial Sectors (Source: Annual Business
Inquiry 1998 and 2007, NOMIS)
City of Edinburgh City Glasgow City
Sectors (% change between 1998 and 2007) Glasgow City Scotland Great Britain
Edinburgh Region Region
Agriculture, forestery and fishing -8% 25% -3% 7% -1% 0%
Mining 86% -71% -42% -55% -27% -36%
Manufacturing -20% -19% -12% -15% -12% -13%
Electricity, gas and water supply 23% 44% 41% 95% 99% 19%
Construction 4% -4% 15% 11% 15% 28%
Wholesale/retail distribution; repair -2% -6% -1% -6% -3% -3%
Hotels and catering 9% -7% -1% 2% 2% 11%
Transport storage and communications 15% 1% 12% 9% 5% 7%
Financial and business services 41% 28% 40% 29% 36% 47%
Public services,admin and defence 8% -30% 0% 1% 1% 17%
Health and social work 7% 46% 18% 34% 29% 29%
Other service activities -16% -5% -13% -8% -11% 0%
Total Employment 12% 4% 10% 7% 8% 16%
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Appendix 3 – Analysis of HSR Terminal Locations
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Relationship Development on this site would have a The site is within a new development of Development on this site would have a
to City's significant impact on the city's identity importance - contributing to the image significant impact on the city's identity
identity - due to the central location. New of a modern prosperous city. A gateway due to the central location. The internal
contribution to development should enhance the site from the west. space and prominent north elevation are
distinctiveness image of the city. North Bridge station distinctive elements. The station was
which became Waverley station was opened in 1879 and has historic value.
formed in 1846. Many changes have
occurred to the station over the last 150
years.
Landmarks This location is a landmark area - there Transition area of the city and therefore The front elevation of the building,
is an important relationship with the more flexible in terms of alterations and including the stylish awning to Gordon
Castle and Princes Street Gardens. potential to contribute to street is a prominent landmark in the
The location is very prominent which distinctiveness. There are still town centre area. This would not be
could offer both advantages and restrictions due to existing historic advisable to alter.
disadvantages. buildings and tunnelling.
Development Scale of new development restricted Opportunity to develop around the area Scale of new development restricted
potential due to the existing buildings already in and improve distinctiveness. due to the existing buildings already in
the area. Proposal should not cause the area. Proposal should not cause
unsympathetic change. unsympathetic change externally or
internally.
Orientation Orientation - visual and physical Visual orientation to centre of town is Glasgow city centre is a grid pattern.
orientation is good. Once outside the not clear despite closeness to town Once outside the station building
station this becomes clear. centre. Physical connection with orientation becomes clear.
central/ eastern side of the city is
complex.
Strategic Link to Princes Street gardens from the The site currently has no link to public There are linear routeways along the
Open Space Waverley Bridge entrances/exits. open space. Space limited to provide Broomielaw and Clyde Street for
Links this and the station facility. walking.
Linkages Opportunity to link to network of Opportunity to link to network of Opportunity to link to network of
cycleways and footpaths. cycleways and footpaths. cycleways and footpaths.
Local Area
dimension
Lively and Edinburgh's historic core is attractive. Mix of uses in the area but less so than Glasgow's core is vibrant with more
attractive local People live and work in the city centre at Waverley. people now choosing to live in the city
places and this good mix creates vitality. This centre as well as work there.
is a clear advantage to improving the
station offer.
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Amenity and There is a good balance between Human scale important to retain. There There has been improvement in
scale buildings and amenity in the Waverley are a range of building scales in this Glasgow in terms of mixed use,
area but lack of opportunity for increase location including the colony buildings, especially along the river front.
in retail/commercial floor area for future office buildings and tenements.
economic improvement.
Connectivity The site offers connections along desire Priority of pedestrian and cycle The site offers connections along desire
lines to public transport, mixed uses movement is low. Cars/trams/buses lines to public transport, mixed uses
and open/public spaces are available. dominate this area. including shops, offices and general
amenities
Local identity The proposal site should reinforce Integration into existing development The proposal site should reinforce
existing character and location on the pattern for the Haymarket area would existing character and grid pattern of the
boundary between each distinctive area be required. city centre. The identity of the area is
of the new and old towns. Grid pattern well established.
of new town and linear pattern of the
old town.
Open spaces Identify opportunity for new civic and Identify opportunity for new civic and Identify opportunity for new civic and
open spaces to create identity and act open spaces to create identity and act open spaces to create identity and act
as an organising element. Difficulty due as an organising element. as an organising element. Difficulty due
to lack of available space. to lack of available space.
Building Reinforcement of local character is Less structured palette of materials Less structured palette of materials than
Materials difficult to enhance due to existing than at Waverley. in Edinburgh. Good quality materials,
traditional materials of surrounding mostly stone in this location would be
buildings. required.
Massing New development should not be higher Identify needs/opportunities to improve New development should not be higher
nor of greater mass than adjacent the components of urban design, form, nor of greater mass than adjacent
existing development unless there are space and activities. This area is existing development unless there are
special townscape reasons. The views currently sporadic in its massing. special townscape reasons. The station
between the old and new towns and is surrounded on 3 sides by buildings
from North Bridge/The mound would be which enclose the current station facility.
severely affected by any change in
development height at Waverley.
Distinctive Scale of the station and its location in a Smaller development area available The station facility is surrounded by
urban form topographical hollow makes does not than at Waverley. Block definition buildings which would make any
make for a coherent layout. relates to a human scale. development problematic. The form of
the station is not very apparent
externally.
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Linkages The site offers the opportunity to link The site offers the opportunity to link The site offers the opportunity to link
well with surroundings due to the well to the west but more restricted to well with surroundings due to the central
central location. the east due to negotiating the city location.
centre.
Frontages Building frontage should address the Only 2 frontages, one main entrance at The station has 3 short frontages, the
boundary with streets, open spaces, Haymarket junction. main entrance to George Street is
walkways. Development area lacks impressive. Increasing these frontages
opportunity in terms of length of is complex due to ownership around the
boundary and impact of a main station in the form of smaller units.
entrance area.
Meeting Opportunity to create a Opportunity to create a more Opportunity to create a
places landmark/meeting place - extending the impressive landmark/meeting place. landmark/meeting place - extending the
already important location. Station already important location. Difficulty due
facility not always clear from the street. to the hidden location of the station.
Street and
site
dimension
Surrounding In this location it will be important to Avoid overdevelopment to the area In this location it will be important to
area establish key elements to ensure fit with despite the opportunity this part of town establish key elements to ensure fit with
surroundings. offers. surroundings.
Block size Integration of new with old should not New buildings should integrate with Integration of new with old should not be
be forced or crude. A station is a large established local character where this forced or crude. An extension to this
development block and will have a is of merit. station would mean an increase to an
noticeable impact on the area. already large development block and will
have a noticeable impact on the area.
Roof and It will be necessary in this location to Respect building lines, rhythms, The height of the existing station
building line. consider the roof as the fifth elevation. density, mass, existing footprint and internally is constricted by the external
This is an added design complication. height elevations to the building. This does
offer a good height internally.
Street Building line important at 5 exits around At street corner provide effective Building line important at 3 exits around
frontage the existing station footprint, Princes turning and give emphasis where the existing station footprint, Gordon
Street, two at Waverly Bridge, Calton appropriate. Street, Hope Street and Union Street.
Road and Market Street
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Resolving Large footprint required by station Large footprint required by station Large footprint required by station needs
conflicts of needs is currently wrapped around needs could be wrapped around other is currently wrapped around other
scale other building elements. The large building elements. The large mass building elements.Additional mass
mass should be broken into smaller should be broken into smaller elements should be broken into smaller elements
elements adapting proportions to adapting proportions to express adapting proportions to express rhythms
express rhythms and grain. rhythms and grain. and grain.
Promote New development should connect with, A pedestrian friendly approach that New development should connect with,
pedestrian extend or improve the local street integrates with the surrounding extend or improve the local street
access structure. More circulation space for community links existing streets and structure. More circulation space for
pedestrians for new development would provides direct links to bus stops and pedestrians for new development would
be required in this location. tram stops. be required in this location. There is not
much availability of space on the
surrounding streets.
Value of open Any new development should enhance Lack of civic space at the Haymarket Any new development should provide
space existing, and provide new open space. area. new open space. The station should
The station should provide a range of provide a range of functions including
functions including both visual and local both visual and local amenity.
amenity. Opportunity for a civic space Opportunity for a civic space at this
at this location but limited available location but limited available space.
space.
Integration of Integrate parking without allowing it to Parking should be safe and secure. Integrate parking without allowing it to
drop off, dominate the development, streetscene Vehicles accessing the station should dominate the development, streetscene
parking and or adjacent developments. Taxi pick up not disrupt traffic flow out with the or adjacent developments. Taxi pick up
taxi ranks and drop off and public transport links station. and drop off and public transport links
should be visible. should be visible.
Public realm
dimension
Public spaces Public spaces require as much care Provide south facing, sunny and Public spaces in the area include mainly
and attention as the buildings in their shaded spots for sitting. Protection from shopping streets, malls and arcades.
design and future maintenance. elements and physical comfort. Improvement could be made in provision
Protection from elements and physical Opportunities to incorporate public art of public open space but difficult due to
comfort is required at station within active public space. Complex lack of space.
entrances/exits. due to lack of available space and
vehicular/tram movement in the area.
Pedestrian Connect into existing network of Connect into existing network of Connections can easily be made into
routes pedestrian routes which are plentiful in pedestrian routes. existing pedestrian routes.
this location.
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Enclosure Ensure a satisfactory enclose of space Ensure a satisfactory enclose of space Ensure a satisfactory enclose of space
with human scale. with human scale. with human scale. Scale of existing
station internal space/structure is very
grand.
Materials and Ensure that high quality streetscape Ensure quality comes from simplicity Ground surfaces will form an important
street furniture design, street furniture and materials and durability. Relate to the existing sign at the 3 entrances to the station to
are used. Ground surfaces will form an material and street furniture to offer highlight their locations.
important sign at the 5 entrances to the continuity.
station to highlight their locations.
Lighting New development should encourage New development should encourage New development should encourage
removal of superfluous items keeping removal of superfluous items keeping removal of superfluous items keeping
markings and signs to the statutory markings and signs to the statutory markings and signs to the statutory
minimum. Lighting is important due to minimum. Lighting is important due to minimum. Lighting is important due to
operating times of the station. operating times of the station. This is a operating times of the station. This is a
key junction so street lighting should be key location with streets on 3 sides so
integrated into the development. street lighting should be integrated into
the development.
Key:
76