MESSAGE

FROM: ESSO-INDIAN NATIONAL CENTRE FOR OCEAN INFORMATION SERVICES

(Earth System Science Organisation, Ministry of Earth Sciences, Government of India)
(E-Mail: osf@incois.gov.in, Website: www.incois.gov.in, FAX NO. +91-40-23892910)

INCOIS-IMD JOINT BULLETIN

To: Senior MET Officer, Eastern Naval Command, Indian Navy
Commandant, Indian Coast Guard, East Region
Commandant, Indian Coast Guard, North East Region
Commandant, Indian Coast Guard, A & N Region
Chief Secretary, Government of West Bengal
Chief Secretary, Government of Odisha
Chief Secretary, Government of Andhra Pradesh
Chief Secretary, Government of Tamil Nadu
Chief Secretary, Andaman & Nicobar Islands
Chief Secretary, Puducherry
State Disaster Management Authority, West Bengal
State Disaster Management Authority, Odisha
State Disaster Management Authority, Andhra Pradesh
State Disaster Management Authority, Tamil Nadu
Basanti Devi College (INCOIS Project), Kolkata
IKSL- Odisha, Andhra Pradesh and West Bengal
Andhra University (INCOIS Project), Visakhapatnam
Commandant, Indian Coast Guard, Southern Region
DNOM, Indian Navy
Reliance Foundation, Mumbai
MSSRF, Chennai
PMSSS, Puducherry
Administrator, UT Puducherry
Kamaraj College, Tuticorin
Ports in West Bengal, Odisha, Andhra Pradesh, Tamil Nadu, Andaman & Nicobar
Shipping Corporation of India.
T.V. & Radio channels and newspapers of relevant states/UT

Time of issue: 17:30 hours IST Dated: 14.11.2018, Bulletin No.: INCOIS/14/11/2018/4

Sub: Cyclonic storm ‘GAJA’ over Southwest and adjoining southeast & westcentral Bay of
Bengal: Cyclone Warning for Tamil Nadu & Puducherry coast: Orange Message

The Cyclonic storm ‘GAJA’ over Southwest and adjoining southeast & westcentral Bay of
Bengal moved southwestwards with a speed of 12 kmph during past 06 hours and lay centred at 1430
hrs IST of 14th November, 2018 over Southwest and adjoining southeast & westcentral Bay of Bengal
near latitude 12.6°N and longitude 84.6°E, about 470 km east-southeast of Chennai (Tamil Nadu) and
550 km east-northeast of Nagapattinam (Tamil Nadu). It is very likely to move west-southwestwards
and intensify further into a Severe Cyclonic Storm during next 12 hours. While moving west-
southwestwards further, it is likely to weaken gradually on 15 th November and cross Tamil Nadu
coast between Pamban and Cuddalore during 15th November evening as a Cyclonic Storm with a
wind speed of 80-90 gusting to 100 kmph.
High Wave/Ocean State warning/alert for Tamil Nadu and South Andhra Pradesh
Tamil Nadu
Table: Forecasted highest wave (during landfall time on 15 th Nov 2018) and corresponding swell
height, for coastal region into the ocean upto 10 km off Tamilnadu

Location/ Wave Height Swell height (m)

District (m)
Chennai 5.2 1.6
Chengalpattu 5.6 1.6
Puducherry 6.6 1.4
South Arcot 6.4 1.4
Karaikal 5.0 2.6
Thiruvararu 3.7 1.5
Thanjavuru 4.5 2.1
Pudukottai 2.5 1.2
Ramanathapuram 3.0 1.4
Cuddalore 2.0 1.0
Tirunelveli 3.3 1.7
Kanyakumari 3.5 1.7

Offshore:
Waves with maximum height in the range of 4.0 - 7.8 meters are forecasted during 17:30 hours on 14-
11-2018 to 23:30 hours of 15-11-2018 along the coast of Northern Tamil Nadu from Dhanushkodi to
Pulicat. Surface Current speeds vary between 73 - 79 cm/sec.

Waves with maximum height in the range of 4.0 - 7.2 meters are forecasted during 17:30 hours on 14-
11-2018 to 23:30 hours of 15-11-2018 along the coast of Southern Tamil Nadu from Kolachal to
Dhanushkodi. Surface Current speeds vary between 50 - 65 cm/sec.

South Andhra Pradesh

Offshore:
Waves with maximum height in the range of 4.0 – 6.0 meters are forecasted during 17:30 hours on 14-
11-2018 to 23:30 hours of 15-11-2018 off the coast of Andhra Pradesh from Durgarajupatnam to
Machilipatnam. Surface Current speeds vary between 164 - 194 cm/sec.

Warnings:

Action Suggested:
Total suspension of fishing operations along & off Tamil Nadu & Puducherry and adjoining south Andhra
Pradesh coasts till 15th November.

The fishermen are advised not to venture into central parts of south & central Bay of Bengal on today, the 14 th
November and into southwest & adjoining westcentral Bay of Bengal till 15 th November.

The fishermen, who are in deep Sea are advised to return to coasts.

Coastal hutment dwellers are advised to move to safer places. Other people in the affected areas to remain
indoors.
Wind warning:
Gale wind speed reaching 70-80 kmph gusting to 90 kmph prevails over Southwest and adjoining southeast &
westcentral Bay of Bengal. It is very likely to increase gradually becoming 90-100 kmph gusting to 110 kmph
over these areas from today, the 14th November 2018 evening.

Squally wind speed reaching 45-55 kmph gusting to 65 kmph very likely to commence along & off Tamil Nadu
& Puducherry and adjoining south Andhra Pradesh coasts from today, the 14 th November 2018 evening. It is very
likely to increase gradually becoming Gale wind speed 80-90 kmph gusting to 100 kmph along & off central
parts of Tamil Nadu & Puducherry coasts from 15th November morning onwards.

Strong wind speed reaching 30-40 kmph gusting to 50 kmph very likely over interior Tamilnadu, Kerala,
southeast Arabian Sea along & off Kerala coast, Comorian area, Gulf of Mannar and Palk Strait on 16 th
November. Strong wind speed reaching 30-40 kmph gusting to 50 kmph very likely to prevail over southeast
Arabian Sea and along & off Kerala coast on 17th November.

Heavy rainfall warning:

Note 1: * Rainfall till 0830 IST of next day.
Note 2: Red color warning means take action. It does not mean red alert.
Region 15 November 2018* 16 November 2018*
Rainfall at most places with heavy to very heavy at a few Rainfall at most places with heavy
Tamilnadu & places over Tamilnadu & Puducherry. Extremely heavy
falls at a few places and very heavy
falls (≥ 20 cm) at isolated places is also likely over
Puducherry at isolated places very likely over
Cuddalore, Nagappattinam,Tiruvarur, Thanjavur,
interior Tamil Nadu.
Pudukkottai, Tuticorin and Ramanathapuram districts.

Spatial rainfall distribution: Isolated: <25%, A few: 26-50%, Many: 51-75%, Most: 76-100%
Rainfall amount (mm): Heavy rain: 64.5 – 115.5, Very heavy rain: 115.6 – 204.4, Extremely heavy rain: 204.5 or more .
 South Coastal Rainfall at most places with heavy falls at isolated places Rainfall at most places with heavy
Andhra Pradesh falls at isolated places

Rayalaseema Rainfall at many places with heavy falls at isolated places Nil

Kerala Rainfall at most places with heavy falls at isolated places Rainfall at most places with heavy to
very heavy falls at isolated places

Legends: Red-Take Action; Orange- Be prepared; Yellow- be updated; Green: No warning

Heavy rain: 64.5-115.5 mm/day; Very heavy rain: 115.6-204.4 mm/day; Extremely heavy rain:
more than 204.4 mm/day

Storm surge: Storm surge of height of about 1.0 meter above astronomical tide is very likely to
inundate low lying areas of Nagapattinam, Thanjavur, Pudukkottai and Ramanathapuram districts of
Tamil Nadu and Karaikal district of Puducherry at the time of landfall.

Damage Expected over districts of Cuddalore, Nagappattinam, Tiruvarur, Tanjavur,

Pudukkottai and Ramanathapuram districts of Tamil Nadu and Karaikal district of
Puducherry:

Major damage to thatched huts/houses, roof tops may blow off and unattached metal sheets may fly.
Damage to power and communication lines. Major damage to Kutcha & minor damage to Pucca
roads. Breaking of tree branches and uprooting of large avenue trees. Damage to paddy crops,
banana, papaya trees and orchards. Sea water inundation in low lying areas after erosion of Kutcha
embankments.

Marine Forecaster
Ocean State Forecast Team
Information Services and Ocean Sciences Group

For Specific Ocean State forecast for Shipping visit http://115.113.76.77/shipforecast/shipforecast.html

Port and Harbours visit (http://115.113.76.77/OSF).
For location specific forecast data for any part of Arabian Sea/ Bay of Bengal, visit
(http://115.113.76.77/webmapservice/Indian_Ocean_Forecast.html)
For complete details visit (http://www.incois.gov.in/portal/osf/osf.jsp)