Global Change –
Contemporary Concerns
John A Raven, University of Dundee, Dundee, UK
Current changes in the global environment are at rates unprecedented in the last million
years. These changes are influencing many aspects of human activity and wellbeing.
Introduction
Global change in the broad sense incorporates all human-
induced changes in our environment and any natural
changes on to which they are superimposed. An important
message of this article is that many of the current changes
have had analogues in the past, albeit with differences in
rate and extent, and that it would be useful to consider data
on past responses of biota to these environmental changes
in our consideration of current changes. A further
significant point is that incomplete knowledge of the rate
and extent of current (and immediate future) change
demands further research, but should not prevent taking
such remedial action as is possible. Final major points are
that a gram of prevention is worth a tonne of cure, and that
remedial actions will in general be far from instantaneous
in their effects.
Current Global Changes and their
Causes and Consequences
Table 1 lists current global changes and their causes and
consequences. The truly global changes include the
increases in atmospheric carbon dioxide (CO2), methane
(CH4), nitrous oxide (N2O) and halocarbons. Global
temperature increases are (and are forecast to be) variable
over the Earth’s surface. Sea level rise means global
inundation of low-lying coastal regions; although global
sea level rise is more than offset, in terms of the position of
the coastline, by continuing uplift of the land which was
weighed down by ice cover during the last glaciation, the
corresponding lowering of the land surface in periglacial
areas where it was forced up in the last glaciation
accentuates the effect of the increased volume of seawater
on the position of the coastline. Even more localized are the
influences of industry and intensive agriculture in generat-
ing NOx, NHy and SO2, and in causing increased nutrient
content in soil and water, land use change, increased
erosion, aquifer depletion and salinization.
Table 1 also shows some of the interrelations among the
components of present global change. Perhaps the most
obvious example is the effect of increased content of
greenhouse gases in the atmosphere on global temperature,
ENCYCLOPEDIA OF LIFE SCIENCES © 2002, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd. www.els.net
Secondary article
. Introduction
Article Contents
. Current Global Changes and their Causes and
Consequences
. Precedents in the Fossil Record for Current Global
Change
. Quantitative Aspects of Current and Past Global
Change
. Conclusions
and thence on the volume of seawater via thermal
expansion and by the melting of ice on land.
Precedents in the Fossil Record for
Current Global Change
Table 2 gives qualitative information on the occurrence of
the components of present global change in the past. It is
important to note that the atmospheric constituents which
are increasing in present global change are all ‘normal’
atmospheric components in that they were present in the
atmosphere before significant human impact on the
environment. It is also significant that these components
also showed variations in atmospheric concentration even
before human influence. The plant nutrients in soil and
natural waters whose levels are currently increasing are
also natural and variable components of these habitats.
Temperature and sea level have also changed before
human intervention, as have vegetation cover and soil
erosion.
A comparison of Table 1 and Table 2 shows that the
majority of the components of present global change were
subject to variation before human influence became
significant. In some cases the climatic and other environ-
mental variations were multiple, rapid and of large
magnitude and were associated with major extinction
events. An example is the K/T meteorite impact which
released CO2 (and SO2) from the impact site in Yucatan,
having previously generated NOx in its passage through the
atmosphere. A subsequent event was widespread fire. The
combination of NOx and smoke screened out sunlight,
leading to cooling, while CO2, SO2 and NOx led to soil and
surface water acidification. These changes to the environ-
ment lasted, in their most extreme form, for several years at
least and caused many extinctions.
As well as rapid and large environmental changes
associated with the K/T boundary event 65 million years
ago, and the slower and less extreme changes associated
with the 14 or so alternations of interglacial with cool to
glacial episodes at high latitudes during the last 2.5 million
1
 Global Change – Contemporary Concerns
Table 1 Current global changes and their causes and consequences
Change
Increased atmospheric CO2 (global)
Increased atmospheric CH4 (global)
Increased atmospheric N2O (global)
Increased atmospheric NOx
Increased atmospheric NHy
Increased atmospheric SO2
Increased P in soil/surface waters
Increased N in soil/surface waters
Increased atmospheric Cl, Br from halo- Chlorofluorocarbons from refriger-
carbons
Increased average global tropospheric and Additional CO2, CH4, N2O CFCs in
land, sea surface temperatures
Change of land use; less natural forest,
more cultivated land
Depletion of water available for irrigation Extraction from aquifers in excess of
and other uses
Salinization of agricultural land
Increased erosion of soil
2
Causes
Land use change and fossil fuel burning Global warming; decreased surface
add CO2 to atmosphere faster than
increased rates of CO2-consuming
processes can remove it
Agriculture, land use change and leaks Global warming
from gas pipelines puts CH4 into the
atmosphere at rates faster than in-
creased rates of CH4 removal can
remove it
Land use change supplies N2O at faster Global warming
rates than removal process can cope
with it
Combustion (including forest fires)
Agriculture, combustion (including
forest fires)
Combustion of coal
Sewage, detergents, fertilizers
NOx/NHy from atmosphere, fertilizers, ‘Nuisance’ growths of algae in inland,
sewage
ants; CH3Br from agriculture
atmosphere
Increased area of land used for agri-
culture
recharge
Irrigation in high-evaporation envir-
onments concentrates salt at soil
surface
Decreased vegetation cover (total, sea- Loss of agricultural potential; degra-
sonal), and hence decreased capacity
of vegetation to modulate water flow
Consequences
seawater pH; increased surface sea-
water dissolved inorganic carbon;
potential for increased primary pro-
ductivity
Acidification of soil surface waters, in-
creased primary productivity? In-
creased tropospheric O3
Acidification of soil surface waters
(after nitrification); increased pri-
mary productivity? Increased tropo-
spheric O3
Acidification of soil (and surface
ocean); increased primary produc-
tivity?
‘Nuisance’ growths of algae in inland,
coastal waters; increased primary
productivity
coastal waters; increased primary
productivity
O3 depletion in stratosphere; increased
UV-B flux at surface and hence
increased risk of human skin cancer.
CFCs cause global warming
Increased sea level from (mainly) ther-
mal expansion of surface seawater,
meeting of ice on land. Increased
freshwater input to surface polar
oceans, possible alteration in ocean
circulation (e.g. North Atlantic
Conveyer, altering climate of Eur-
ope)
Conversion of soil organic matter to
CO2, NH41 /NO32
Impact on native vegetation; shortage
of irrigation water
Decreased area of land for agriculture
dation of coastal ecosystems (espe-
cially coral reefs)
 Global Change – Contemporary Concerns

Table 1 (Continued)

Increased sea level Melting of ice on land, thermal expan- Flooding of low-lying land; loss of
sion of surface seawater, both as a coastal biota caught between rising
consequence of increased tempera- sea level and coastal defences and
ture developments
Increased occurrence of organisms outside Deliberate and accidental movement of Interaction among organisms which do
their ‘natural’ range organisms by man. Natural migra- not interact naturally, including
tion following climate change weeds and pests of crops and para-
sites and their vectors of humans and
domestic animals
Raven and Yin, 1998; Falkowski et al., 2000; Malhi and Grace, 2000

years, there were changes of smaller magnitude and/or rate
of change during the Tertiary and superimposed on the
glacial–interglacial cycles of the Pleistocene. This prior
exposure to some aspects of the current global change
alerts us to the possibility that biota today have genetic
traits, selected for by these earlier experiences, which could
aid their functioning under the current global change. As
will be considered in more detail later, this possibility
should not result in complacency over the extent to which
biota can tolerate current environmental change. One
reason why these prior experiences may not be adequate to
protect biota from current changes is the time since these
earlier experiences; the relevant traits may have been lost.
A second reason is that present rates and extents of change
may exceed those to which the organisms are genetically
adapted. A third reason is that the combination of
environmental factors that are changing at the moment
has no obvious earlier precedents.
Quantitative Aspects of Current and
Past Global Change
Consideration of quantitative aspects of current and past
global change requires that we consider the rate of change
and the extent of change. In considering the extent of
change it is also important to consider the values which the
environmental variables will reach relative to the values
that have pertained over the recent (0.01–1 Ma or so)
evolutionary past. This enables us to determine if the
organisms are being exposed to environmental extremes,
or combination of extremes, that they have not experienced
in their recent evolutionary history.
Taking the environmental variables in the order in which
they are listed in Table 1 and Table 2, the present rate of
increase in atmospheric CO2 is greater than that seen from
ice-core data for the glacial–interglacial transitions; out-
side our 1 Ma time-frame there have been more rapid rates
and extents of increases in CO2 than those being
experienced at the moment, for example at the K/T
boundary event. Furthermore, the present atmospheric
CO2 level is greater than that found over the last 420 000
years, and probably more than the last three million years.
This could have significant impacts on stomatal index,
stomatal regulation and photosynthetic biochemistry within
a biochemical and physiological category of terrestrial plants
(C3, C4 or CAM), and could also impact on the competitive
interactions among plants of these varying physiologies.
These considerations suggest that plants are close to their
extremes of acclimation, in terms of rate and extent to CO2
variations, in relation to what they have experienced in the
last few hundred thousand years. It seems that similar
considerations relate to temperature compensation of the
CO2-sensing mechanisms of some insects.
For atmospheric CH4 and N2O, the current rate of
increase is, as with CO2, greater than those found from ice-
core data for glacial–interglacial transitions, and the
current atmospheric content is, especially for CH4, greater
than those found in the ice-core record from Antarctica. At
all events, these three greenhouse gases (CO2, CH4, N2O)
are now at levels in excess of those found in the last few
hundred thousand years.
The scant NO2 record from polar ice does not permit
more than the almost self-evident finding that the NOx,
over at least some parts of the Earth, is higher than that in
the recent (1 Ma) past. While there are no ice-core records
of NHy, the atmospheric content levels in areas with
intensive animal husbandry exceed those found over the
last 1 Ma, with the exception of areas near bat and bird
colonies.
SO2 has a good polar ice record in the form of two
proxies, i.e. the component of SO24 2 which cannot be
attributed to sea-salt, and methanesulfonate, an inter-
mediate in the oxidation pathway of dimethylsulfide
(DMS). This record shows glacial–interglacial variations,
but once more we see that at least the areas around the
burning of high-sulfur coal, and regions downwind of them
had (or have) SO2 levels higher than those experienced
globally over the last 1 Ma.
The increased phosphate, and combined (NH41 , NO22 ,
NO32 ) nitrogen, content of soil solution and surface waters
(freshwater and coastal marine) are probably without
precedent on a large scale as is found today.

3
 Global Change – Contemporary Concerns

Table 2 Precedents in the fossil record for current global change

Current change
Increased atmospheric CO2
Increased atmospheric CH4
Increased atmospheric N2O
Increased atmospheric NOx
Increased atmospheric NHy
Increased atmospheric SO2
Increased P in soil/surface waters
Increased N in soil/surface waters
Increased atmospheric (stratospheric) No evidence for changes in the past
F, Cl, Br from halocarbons
Increased average global tropospheric Global temperatures lower in most of
and land, sea air surface temperatures
Change of land use
Depletion of available water for irriga- None
tion and other uses
Salinization of agricultural land
Increased erosion of soil
Increased sea level
Dispersal of organisms
Raven and Yin, 1998; Petit et al., 1999; Falkowski et al., 2000
Past analogue Comments
Lower CO2 in pre-industrial Holocene Past CO2 regulated by burial/oxidation
and interglacials; even lower CO2 in of organic C; and burial/crustal me-
Pleistocene glaciations; generally tamorphosis of CaCO3. Significant
higher CO2 throughout most of role of total land vegetation in CO2
Earth’s history drawdown in Devonian
Lower CH4 in pre-industrial Holocene Natural CH4 in atmosphere from me-
and interglacials; even lower CH4 in thanogens in excess of CH4 con-
Pleistocene glaciations sumption by methanotrophs,
atmospheric oxidation
Lower N2O in pre-industrial Holocene Natural N2O in atmosphere from N2O
and interglacials; even lower N2O in from denitrifiers in excess of N2O
Pleistocene glaciations consumption by denitrifiers, atmo-
spheric oxidation
Increased NOx result in meteorite im- Natural NOx in atmosphere from vege-
pacts due to thermochemistry of at- tation fires, lightning, meteorite im-
mosphere, vegetation fires pacts
Increased NHy after meteorite impacts Natural NHy in atmosphere for senes-
due to vegetation fires cent vegetation, vegetation fires
Increased SO2 in Pleistocene glaciations Increased SO2 production in atmo-
(from dimethylsulfide (DMS)); in- sphere by oxidation of biogenic DMS
creased SO2 from vulcanism, meteor-
ite impacts on high S rock
Evidence of variation in P in oceans
from Cd in sediments as a proxy
Increased NOx/NHy in atmosphere (see
above) increased soil, sea surface
available N
Natural Cl, Br, I supply to atmosphere
from biogenic halocarbons
Past global temperatures determined by
Pleistocene, especially in glaciations, solar constant, greenhouse gases in
than at the moment; some earlier atmosphere, dissipation of continents,
glacial episodes, but Earth has gener- albedo
ally been at least as warm as it is now
Increasing tempo of human changes in Present and past anthropogenic effects
land use since onset of use of fire and on land use are/were superimposed on
beginning of agriculture and indus- natural changes due to glaciations, sea
trialization level changes, non-glacial climate
changes
Salinization of agricultural land has oc-
curred in the past, as has salinization
of land before agriculture
Drier periods with less vegetation cover;
times of mountain uplift
Sea level lower in glacial episodes of
Pleistocene. Sea level variations pre-
Pleistocene related to tectonic events
Migration following climate change or
chance events

4

The present situation with respect to atmospheric
halocarbons is probably unprecedented in the past 1 Ma,
although direct evidence is not available. The Montreal
Protocol would, if it continues to be followed, decrease the
chlorine (and bromine) input to the stratosphere, and
hence, on a decadal time scale, reverse the ozone depletion
in the stratosphere.
The sum of the increased greenhouse gases (CO2, CH4,
N2O, chlorofluorocarbons) have been related to the
increasing global temperature trend over the last century.
The reality of the anthropogenic cause of this temperature
increase is still disputed, but the scientific consensus is that
there is a very substantial anthropogenic component to the
temperature increase. Such temperature increases are at a
greater rate than most of those changes seen in the last
1 Ma, and the temperature is increasing beyond values seen
in the last 420 000 years.
Four of the remaining items listed in Table 1 and Table 2
(changed land use; depletion of available water; saliniza-
tion of agricultural lands; increased erosion of soil) have no
clear analogues in quantitative terms in the past. Increased
sea level has been an important component of Earth
history since the last Glacial Maximum 18 000 years ago,
with a total rise of some 135 m. There was a very rapid (2 m)
increase over a few weeks some 7000 years ago as a large
volume of meltwater from continental North America was
released into the world ocean.
Many of the changes in the global environment are
having significant effects on humans. Agriculture is being
affected not just by changes in water quality and quantity
available for irrigation and the changes in climate, but also
by changes in the distribution of weed, pest and pathogen
species which interact with domesticated plants and
animals. These altered distributions are in part related to
migration in response to climate change, and in part to re-
distribution of organisms caused deliberately or acciden-
tally by human activities (Table 1 and Table 2). Changes in
climate, and directly human-induced changes in habitat,
Global Change – Contemporary Concerns
can also increase the effectiveness of insect vectors of
human diseases such as malaria and river blindness.
Another effect of climate change plus human direct
activities is increased contamination of food and drinking
water with pathogenic microbes.
Conclusions
The data presented above suggest that the present and
predicted future environmental changes are occurring
faster than has generally been the case in the last 1 Ma.
In many cases the values of the environmental variables
that are reached are outside the range found over the last
1 Ma. These considerations of rate and extent of change
show that the present and predicted future environmental
changes are unprecedented over the last 1 Ma.
References
Falkowski P, Scholes RJ, Boyle E, et al. (2000) The global carbon cycle: a
test of our knowledge of Earth as a system. Science 290: 291–296.
Malhi Y and Grace J (2000) Tropical forests and atmospheric carbon
dioxide. Trends in Ecology and Evolution 15: 332–337.
Petit JR, Jouzel J, Raynaud D, et al. (1999) Climate and atmospheric
history of the past 420,000 years from the Vostok ice core, Antarctica.
Nature 399: 429–436.
Raven JA and Yin Z-H (1998) The past, present and future of
nitrogenous compounds in the atmosphere and their interactions with
plants. New Phytologist 139: 205–219.
Further Reading
Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (2001) Climate Change
2001: The Scientific Basis. Cambridge, UK: Cambridge University
Press.
Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (2001) Climate Change
2001: Impacts, Adaptations, and Vulnerability. Cambridge, UK:
Cambridge University Press.