IEEE TRANSACTIONS ON POWER DELIVERY, VOL. 27, NO.
4, OCTOBER 2012
A New Stochastic Model of Electric Arc Furnace
Based on Hidden Markov Model: A Study of Its
Effects on the Power System
Mehdi Torabian Esfahani and Behrooz Vahidi, Senior Member, IEEE
Abstract—Electric arc furnaces (EAFs) are nonlinear and time-
variant loads that cause severe fluctuations of current, voltage, and
current harmonics, voltage flicker, frequency changes, etc. The re-
quirement is to present an accurate model to analyze the function
of these types of loads. In this paper, a new model based on hidden
Markov model theory is presented for an electric arc. For this pur-
pose, the characteristic of the arc voltage-current is divided into
four regions. Then, on the basis of actual measured samples of an
electric arc in several functioning cycles of EAF, different operating
points are generated in the form of statistical probability, corre-
sponding to hidden Markov theory in the aforementioned four re-
gions. The arc model is designed in the form of a current-dependent
voltage source. Therefore, the proposed model is without linear ap-
proximation and corresponds to the actual state. Also, in order to
be accurate in flicker modeling, a voltage is randomly considered
for the arc model. After designing the aforementioned model, the
effects resulting from this electric load in the power system are
studied and analyzed. The simulation results are compared with
the measured arc to show the accuracy and soundness of the model.
Index Terms—Electric arc furnace (EAF), flicker, hidden
Markov model (HMM), power quality (PQ).
I. INTRODUCTION
HE EAFs are normally among the largest electrical loads
T in power systems. Due to the fast and intensive deviations
of electric power in these, the bus voltage of these furnaces be-
comes unbalanced and can fluctuate very largely. Moreover, the
EAFs disturb power quality (PQ), voltage flicker, voltage and
current unbalance, and odd and even harmonics in power sys-
tems. To study this field and improve the aforementioned issued,
an exact and complete design of the power system with arc fur-
naces should be made. Therefore, it is necessary to find a suit-
able model for EAFs. In this regard, numerous models have been
presented to describe the EAF [1]–[8]. Some of these models
are based on the voltage–current characteristics (VIC) method
[1]–[4]. This kind of model is simple and direct which can sat-
isfy a certain operating condition, and in this way, the simplifi-
Manuscript received July 02, 2011; revised November 15, 2011, January 23,
2012, and May 09, 2012; accepted June 24, 2012. Date of publication August 27,
2012; date of current version September 19, 2012. Paper no. TPWRD-00565-
2011.
The authors are with the Department of Electrical Engineering, Amirkabir
University of Technology, Tehran 1591634311, Iran (e-mail: m_tora-
bian@aut.ac.ir; vahidi@aut.ac.ir).
Color versions of one or more of the figures in this paper are available online
at http://ieeexplore.ieee.org.
Digital Object Identifier 10.1109/TPWRD.2012.2206408
0885-8977/$31.00 © 2012 IEEE
1893
cation for VIC is the main factor of accuracy. Harmonic voltage
source method [5], [6] is based on the harmonic study of a cer-
tain kind of arc voltage waveform. The problem is that under
this voltage waveform, the arc furnace system does not operate
at the maximum power transfer condition.
Another group of models is based on the frequency domain
that is often used for harmonic analysis of the system [7]–[9].
The frequency-domain solution of nonlinear differential equa-
tions depends on the system topology and operating condition.
Some of the other models are based on stochastic characteristics
of the EAF which are mainly suitable for voltage flicker anal-
ysis [9], [10]. Another method for analyzing the arc model in
time domain is based on the Cassie-Mayer [11]. In this method,
Cassie and Mayer equations are used in cases of low and high
arc current, respectively. There are some restrictions, such as
need for the initial conditions, for solving the differential equa-
tions in these methods.
The proposed models have not been able to exhibit the be-
havior of electric arc furnaces properly. Some even do not ex-
hibit the random states of the arc correctly. Also, most of these
models have modeled the electric arc on the basis of a specific
mathematical equation. The characteristic of the arc is therefore
limited within a totally specific framework in contrast to the un-
predictable behavior of the arc. Therefore, presenting a suitable
model for the analysis of the arc furnace in order to study the
random nature of the arc and to provide the desired conformity
with the actual state is required.
In this paper, at first, the properties of the electric arc are
studied. Then, a new model that obtained through sampling from
the voltage and current of an actual arc is proposed by adopting
hidden Markov theory on the basis of electric arc identifica-
tion. Hence, the arc voltage-current characteristic is severed into
four regions. Then, different operating points are created in the
form of statistical probability under hidden Markov theory in
the aforementioned four regions where these points are found
upon the actual measured samples of an electric arc during sev-
eral working cycles of furnace. In the next stage, the arc model
is made of plans in the the form of a current-dependent voltage
source, and the voltage across source terminals corresponds to
the input current of the arc. From now on, the presented model
is less linear approximation and matches to the measured state.
One of the unique features of the designed model is to show
actual flicker which this model needs with fewer special equa-
tions for flicker modeling. It should be noted in this paper that a
simple equation is considered to modulate flicker function with
the arc model for producing different operating states of EAF
1894
Fig. 1. Actual V-I model of the electric arc furnaces.
and increasing accuracy of proposed model. Finally, this model
is compared with the measured samples in order to be ensured
of the functioning of the designed model. Then, the effects of
the operating furnace on the power system are studied. Also, to
study the effects of flicker, the IEC flickermeter is designed. To
implement the presented model, the actual values of EAFs of
Mobarakeh Steel Company (MSC) are used.
II. STUDY OF THE PROPERTIES OF ARC FURNACE
One of the types of electric discharge in gases is the electric
arc or arc discharge under any conditions. Electric failure ap-
pears in a gaseous insulator in the form of an electric arc. The
major characteristic of an electric arc is its rather high current
(up to several kiloamperes), very little voltage drop, and very
high heat of the gas (up to several thousand centigrades).
Fig. 1 shows voltage changes of an electric arc in terms of
current for an actual arc in steel industries. As observed from
this characteristic, there is a hysteresis state on this curve on ac-
count of the current at the previous instants. After the passage
of current from the zero point, the arc current is initially low and
the voltage across the arc descends (i.e., the arc negative char-
acteristic appears). After the current reaches its maximum value
and at the start of its reduction, the voltage value is less than
the value it had during its increase for a definite current. That
is because the electric arc is heated due to the passage of the
previous current and increases the number of ions and free elec-
trons. Therefore, the electric conductive capability rises. This
case is observed in every half period.
As seen in Fig. 1, the electric arc consists of four major parts
as follows:
Area1 (1)
Area2 (2)
Area3 (3)
Area4 (4)
Equation (1) is similar to (4), and (2) is similar to (3). How-
ever, the sign of voltage and current in the similar ones is oppo-
site. Thus, the arc voltage can be expressed as a function of the
arc current in its own region.
IEEE TRANSACTIONS ON POWER DELIVERY, VOL. 27, NO. 4, OCTOBER 2012
III. DESIGN OF AN ELECTRIC ARC NEW MODEL
With regard to random characteristics of electric arc, and the
arc moment dependency on that moment and previous moments,
a new model based on the statistical HMM is proposed in this
part. In Markov models, any state related to one occurrence is
observable. In other words, the output of these sources in any
state, provided that state is already known, is no longer a random
variable. This model is a limited model which cannot be used
in many occurrences. In this paper, the Markov model is devel-
oped into a model where the system output is a probability func-
tion of the system state. This model is named HMM. There are
two nested random processes in this model: the lower random
process that is not directly observable, and is only observable
through another random process generating the observation se-
quence. Therefore, it is possible to design a random model for
an electric arc that has satisfactory conformity with the actual
data. Therefore, the discontinuous data of HMM characteristics
for the design of an electric arc should be carefully studied.
A. Application of HMM in the Design of the Arc Model
Characteristics of an HMM for the description of discontin-
uous data are as follows [12]–[15].
1) is the number of the states present in the model: although
the states in HMM are hidden, in most scientific problems,
the number of the states can be determined according to
physical features. The states are therefore named according
to the elements of the set and the system state
at time is shown by .
2) is the number of different observations at each state:
observations suggest the modeled system output. The
system outputs are considered as the set elements
.
3) The probability distribution of a one-stage state transfer is
shown by so that
(5)
In a state that there is no possibility for a transfer from state
to state , then 0.
4) There is the possibility of observations in the form of
vector where
(6)
indicating the probability of each of the observed symbols
in state .
5) The initial distribution function depicts the states in
, where
(7)
Therefore, in order to specify an HMM model into the number
of states, there is a need for the number of observations and
values of . An HMM is usually depicted by the com-
pressed symbol of .
By having HMM model parameters, it can be con-
sidered as a data generator (sequence of observations)
TORABIAN ESFAHANI AND VAHIDI: NEW STOCHASTIC MODEL OF ELECTRIC ARC FURNACE BASED ON HMM 1895

, where is one of the members Therefore, with regard to the later equation, it is possible to
of set and is the number of observations. calculate the probability for observation occurrences and their
The trend of output generation in HMM is as follows. soundness.
1) Selection of the initial state on the basis of initial The second problem is the estimation of the past states by
state distribution function . having the observations and the model parameters. Optimiza-
2) Set . tion standards can be used to solve this problem. One of these
3) Selection of on the basis of random distribu- optimization standards is the selection of states (which are
tion functions of observations corresponding to the system individually very similar to each other). This optimization stan-
present state. dard increases the percentage of the correctness of the separate
4) Transit to the new state of transfer matrix of the states. Therefore, the following variable is defined to solve this
states corresponding to state i. problem:
5) If conditions of and return to step 3 are
satisfied; otherwise, end of the work. (15)
With regard to the expressed characteristics and the fact that
the electric arc is unstable and random, there are three basic The percentage for being in state at time is to present the
problems for the application of HMM model in the design of the observation sequence and model. Equation (15) is simply
arc. The first problem is the evaluation of occurrence probability calculable as recessive variables as follows:
of the sequence observed in the electric arc (i.e., the manner
of calculating the percentage and probability of arc occurrence
(16)
over different time periods). The occurrence probability of ob-
servations string of for Markov models is
calculable as follows:
Since is as the partial observation
(8) sequence and state is at time and as the remaining
observation sequence and state is at
The best way to solve this problem is to take all possible cases time, the normal factor is written as follows:
over the time period of into consideration (the number of ob-
servations). Consider one fixed state sequence
(17)
(9)
Therefore, the probability size is written as follows:
where is also the initial state. The probability for the sequence
observation of O for state sequence of Q is as follows:
(18)
(10)
Now, with the use of , it is possible to insert the separate
And with regard to independence among observations, we states similar to into time
have

(11) (19)

Therefore, the Q state sequence probability can be written as
(12)
The probability of O and Q occurring simultaneously
(13)
The probability for observing O appears along with a set of
probabilities for all sequences of possible states of
Also, the above equation increases the number of the expected
correct states (by increasing the similar separate states at time).
Therefore, this problem is also solved on the basis of the
recent relations. The third and the most difficult problem of
the HMM is the distinction of a method for the adjustment of
parameters to maximize the observation se-
quence probability. It is required to mention that there is a spe-
cific model to maximize the observation sequence probability
and there is no way for estimating the model parameters. How-
ever, can be selected in a way that is
maximized. To approve and define the HMM parameters, it is
embarked on the definition of , probability at state at
, and state at . Therefore, the model and observations
sequence are considered as the following equation:

(14) (20)
1896 IEEE TRANSACTIONS ON POWER DELIVERY, VOL. 27, NO. 4, OCTOBER 2012

By the use of the definition of recessive variables, can able relations for are written as follows, as shown in the
be written as follows: equation at the bottom of the page.
Therefore, with proper application of the HMM model on the
basis of the expressed explanations and the use of the actual
measured data of the electric arc, it is possible to have access to
a new model on the basis of the actual data. In order to model
(21) this arc, the proposed arc is modeled in the form of a voltage
source dependent on the input current and the voltage value of
its two ends is related to the arc input current.
To make modeling more accurate and create different states
where the numerator is in form of arc function, the voltage flicker is also considered for the
and division calculates the desired probability value by . proposed model according to
Previously, was defined as the probability of being in state
at time. Now, with the use of observation sequence and (24)
model, a relation between and can be obtained by
collecting it on . The above equation is as follows: In this equation, is the voltage modelled with flicker.
is also the sampled voltage dependent on current by
HMM, where is also the function of flicker and depending
(22) on the type of flicker, it can vary sinusoidally and randomly.
If the produced flicker varies randomly, this function operates
If this set is performed on , an accessible value will be found according to
which shows the number of state appearance or in a similar (25)
way it is the expected transition probability matrix value from
state . In this equation, is bandlimited white noise with zero
In short, the total of on time can mean and variance of 1 and with a flicker limit to 4 14 Hz,
be the expected transition probability matrix value from the and is the variation factor in flicker intensity.
state to state. Therefore, it can be written as Briefly, Fig. 2 shows the block diagram of the proposed
model.
The expected number from IV. POWER SYSTEM MODELING WITH EAF
probability matrix (23a) In order to analyze the proposed model, the power supply
of the arc furnace should be modeled in the actual state. Fig. 3
The expected number from shows the single-line diagram of an electric system. In this
figure, bus 1 indicates the point of common coupling (PCC),
probability matrix to (23b) which is the supplying bus of the EAF transformer. In order
to change the input active power of the EAF, the transformer
With the use of the above relations, it is possible to create a (MV/LV) is used. This transformer is equipped with a tap
method for the improvement of HMM parameters. The reason- changer located at the secondary winding to have the ability

Expected number of times in state at time

Expected number of transition from state to
Expected number of transition from state

Expected number of times in state and observing parameter

Expected number of times in state
TORABIAN ESFAHANI AND VAHIDI: NEW STOCHASTIC MODEL OF ELECTRIC ARC FURNACE BASED ON HMM
Fig. 2. Block diagram of the proposed model.
Fig. 3. Electric system single-line.
to change the voltage of the furnace. The arc furnace is also
connected to the PCC through the transformer , (HV/MV).
In this figure, and are the inductance and resistance of
the cable line connected to the furnace electrodes, respectively.
Also, is the short-circuit reactance at the PCC bus.
To collect the arc voltage and current data, two cur-
rent-voltage measuring devices, one of them on bus-2 and
another on the electrode of the arc furnace were used. The rate
of data collection is about 1.6 10 kHz. Of course, the data
received at 10 cycles is enough. After receiving the data, on
the basis of HMM model, the electric arc is installed in the
form of a voltage source controlled by the current. In order to
study the effect of electric arc on the main bus of the power
system, a flickermeter was used on buses 1. The manner of
designing the flickermeter is based on flicker calculation by the
IEC flickermeter [16]–[18].
A. Design of IEC Flickermeter
Calculation of flicker by the IEC flickermeter is based on the
fact that the flicker value in its input waveform is expressed in
terms of a quantity proportional to the severity of the flicker
[16]. In this manner, the desired quantity value at any moment is
indicative of the flicker condition existing in the input signal and
shows the weakness and strength of the flicker rate. Meanwhile,
the value of this quantity is considered in a way that when the
1897
severity of the flicker is comprehensible and recognizable, the
value of the quantity under discussion is equal to 1.
This quantity that named the instantaneous flicker level (IFL)
is indicative of the instantaneous value of flicker at any moment
[18]. The value of this parameter is proportional to the square
value of the voltage flicker amplitude, and the value of this quan-
tity becomes a unit for the visibility of the flicker. Therefore,
there is a need for a function to show the relation between the
flicker levels and time percent corresponding to that level during
one period for flicker measurement. This function is obtained
during the following stages:
First stage: classification of the measured instantaneous
flicker levels in terms of their values;
Second stage: finding the cumulative probability function
after completion of the observation period.
Mentioning that the shapes of the CPF curves are not sim-
ilar to each other for all different types of flicker generating
loads is required. They have great dependency on the types of
voltage fluctuations. As a result, a standard that can differentiate
among these shapes and can quantitatively evaluate the flicker
severity should be used. This appropriate standard is obtained
by introducing the flicker short-time index and using the mul-
tipoint method. For this purpose, the flicker short-time index is
considered as follows:
(26)
where is the short-time index of flicker severity
to : weight coefficients
is a level of IFL, where in i percent of the total observation
time, IFL has been more than that [16]–[18].
The cumulative distribution curve is indicative of the left-be-
hind IFLs in terms of the classes. While obtaining the ,a
level of IFL is taken into consideration that in i percent of ob-
servation time, IFL is more than that, so it is natural that there is
no particular value for this and it should be specified through
interpolation so that the changes can be calculated.
1898 IEEE TRANSACTIONS ON POWER DELIVERY, VOL. 27, NO. 4, OCTOBER 2012

TABLE I
MSC SYSTEM PARAMETERS

Fig. 4. Voltage-current characteristic of the proposed arc model.

V. STUDY OF SIMULATION RESULTS

A. Study of the Proposed Arc Model

The selected parameters for the circuit are chosen according
to Fig. 1 and on the basis of the actual values at MSC in accor-
dance with Table I.
MSC is one of the largest factories producing steel in the steel
industry. In this plant, eight EAFs are used. EAF performance
includes four stages of melting, scrap, charging DRI, as well as
platting and refining. The worst condition is the scrap stage. At
this stage, the number tap of furnace transformers (FTs) is set to
23. High current (70 kA), short arc length, and rated condition
of FT are qualities of this stage. After 70% melted scrap, DRI
charging has begun. At this stage, the tap changer is set to the
maximum of its own self (tap 33). The voltage and arc length
are raise and these conditions continue until final melting. In the
second and third stage, arc is stable and the voltage and current
have minimum variation. To measure arc voltage and current,
the TDRH device is used, where the TDRH digital electrode reg-
ulation system uses state-of-the-art Motorola microprocessor Fig. 5. Curve for the changes of electrical arc parameters. A-Arc voltage;
technology to achieve a real-time regulation loop. It supports B-Arc current.
different operating modes, selected to obtain EAF performance,
impedance, voltage, current, power factor, etc. (Table I).
Fig. 4 shows the electric arc characteristic on the basis of With regard to simulation results, it is observed that the model
Table I: the measured samples of the actual electric arc and the based on the HMM is very close to the measured state without
use of the HMM model on the basis of the measured samples. As any approximation and linearization.
observed, after re-reading the data by the model, the electric arc
approaches the measured state. In order to study the conformity B. Study of Electric Arc in the Power System
rate of the proposed model with the actual state, Fig. 5 shows With regard to the designed model, the effects of the opera-
the arc voltage and current changes both in the measured and tion of electric arc on the power system are studied and analyzed
proposed model. With regard to Fig. 5(a), it is observed that the in this section. For this purpose, the voltage flicker is randomly
arc voltage is very close to actuality. In the same manner, the considered for the electric arc. Therefore, Fig. 6 shows the elec-
electric arc current conforms to the measured state according to tric arc voltage and current variations in random flicker state.
Fig. 5(b). As can be seen in these figures, the simulated model follows the
TORABIAN ESFAHANI AND VAHIDI: NEW STOCHASTIC MODEL OF ELECTRIC ARC FURNACE BASED ON HMM
Fig. 6. Electric arc voltage and current changes in the random flicker state:
A-voltage curve; B-current curve; C-V-I characteristic.
measured voltage flicker as well; initial transient states are re-
moved in the arc HMM model as can be seen in the comparison
between Fig. 6(c) and Fig. 4. Also, in the following cycles, the
accuracy of the model is better than the first cycle. According
to Fig. 2, HMM pursues the voltage and current variations with
less approximation.
The proposed model is properly capable of producing voltage
flicker. Now, in order to study the voltage flicker in bus 1, the
short-term index of flicker severity with regard to the IEC stan-
dard and (26) is considered as follows:
(27)
1899
Fig. 7. Curve for the cumulative distribution function changes in terms of clas-
sification.
Fig. 8. Curve for the flicker short-term index changes.
TABLE II
RESULTS OF P CALCULATIONS RELATED TO THE 9TH SECOND
In the performed simulations, the IFL curve was evaluated for
15 s, so with regard to the IFL curve at that second, the is
obtained for each second, ultimately having 15 points. By plot-
ting the points, the flicker rate is observed. For example, Table II
shows different levels of flicker at the ninth second. Also, Fig. 7
depicts the curve for CPF function changes. Therefore, Fig. 8
describes a comparison of the short-time flicker in measured and
simulated states.
The proposed model has properly been able to generate the
flicker in bus 1 of the power system. On the one hand, the de-
signed flickermeter has properly measured the generated flicker.
To study the effects of voltage fluctuations, Fig. 9 shows the
curve for the changes of voltage a-phase profile on bus 1 in
the measured and simulated models. It should be noted that the
voltage flicker is measured by the power quality analyzer PQA
HIOKI3196 at the PCC bus.
1900 IEEE TRANSACTIONS ON POWER DELIVERY, VOL. 27, NO. 4, OCTOBER 2012

TABLE III
HARMONIC ORDERS AT THREE PHASES IN THE PCC BUS

factor and voltage profile changes. These errors improved with

an increase of runtime. Hence, the errors in Figs. 9 and 10 are
reasonable.
In order to study the voltage and current harmonics that have
been generated by the EAF, Table III shows the magnitude of
voltage and current harmonics, total harmonic distortion (THD)
of voltage, and current at bus 1. These harmonics are measured
by PQA HIOKI3196. By comparing the measured and simula-
tion values, it is observed that the generated harmonics’ mag-
nitude in the measured state has proper conformity with that in
the proposed model.

VI. CONCLUSION
Fig. 9. Curve for changes of the voltage three-phase profile in bus 1.
In this paper, a stochastic model for electric arc based on
samples of voltage and current measurements was presented.
The prominent qualities of this model are nonapproximation
and accuracy in modeling because of experimental samples
and applied HMM. This model can be used in power system
studies with EAFs and investigated types of compensator as
SVC, STATCOM, etc. Other features of the model are flicker
generation with different functions and intensities. Therefore,
the model can create all melting stages, such as scrap, DRI
charging, plating, and refining. The designed model was probed
under the most unfavorable conditions. The simulation results
and comparison with measured data described the advantages
of the proposed method in modeling the EAF.

Fig. 10. Curve for changes of the power factor in bus 1.
Fig. 10 exhibits the power factor of bus 1 in the measured and
simulated model. The power factor in bus 1 is about 0.6. This
value is changed according to voltage changes and has satisfac-
tory conformity with actuality.
It should be noted, according to Fig. 3, that the length and
impedance of lines, transformers ( and ), and buses 1 and
2 cause the error in simulated and measured results in Figs. 9 and
10. It should be noted that those errors trace only on the power
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Mehdi Torabian Esfahani was born in Isfahan, Iran,
on December 18, 1982. He is currently pursuing the
Ph.D. degree in electrical engineering at Amirkabir
University of Technology, Tehran, Iran.
He was with the Esfahan Regional Electrical Com-
pany (EREC), Isfahan, Iran. His research interests
are power-electronic applications for the topology
and control of active harmonic filters, power factor
correction, power-quality analysis, and the study of
electrical arc furnaces in power systems and system
modeling.
Behrooz Vahidi (M’00–SM’04) was born in
Abadan, Iran, in 1953. He received the B.S. degree
in electrical engineering from Sharif University of
Technology, Tehran, Iran, in 1980, the M.S. degree
in electrical engineering from Amirkabir University
of Technology, Tehran, Iran, in 1989, and the Ph.D.
degree in electrical engineering from the University
of Manchester Institute of Science and Technology,
Manchester, U.K., in 1997.
From 1980 to 1986, he was a Chief Engineer in
the high-voltage in industry field. Since 1989, he has
been a Professor with the Department of Electrical Engineering, Amirkabir Uni-
versity of Technology. He has authored and coauthored 250 papers and five
books on high-voltage engineering and power systems. His main fields of re-
search are high voltage, electrical insulation, power system transients, lightning
protection, and pulse power technology.
Prof. Vahidi was selected as Distinguished Researcher of Iran by the Ministry
of Higher Education of Iran and by the Iranian Association of Electrical and
Electronics Engineers (IAEEE).