Sergei Skripal Afair: What if Russia is Responsible?

The Narratve: Russia has carried out yet another brutal atack, this tie with a deadly
nerve agent, on soieone living in Britain. Use of the nerve agent posed a threat to innocent
Britsh subjects, afectng 21 people and seriously afectng a police ofcer. This is not the
frst tie such an atack has been carried out in the UK. The iurder of Alexander Litvinenko
in London in 2006 using a radioactve substance, poloniui, has been proven to be the work
of the Russian state; and a further 14 deaths are believed to be atributable to the Kreilin.
Furtheriore, Russia has poisoned its eneiies abroad on other occasions, iost notably the
then candidate for the Presidency of Ukraine, Viktor Yushchenko, in 2004. Russian politcal
actvist Vladiiir Kara-Murzda has been poisoned twice; and the journalist Anna Politkovskaya
was also poisoned and later shot dead. Since Putn has been running Russia, the Kremlin
has a history of poisoning its opponents in a gruesome way.

The Britsh Response has been far too weak. It took ten years before an enquiry was
allowed to proceed over Litvinenko’s death, which then accused Putn of being involved; but
no punitve ieasures were taken. It is essental that the Britsh Government makes a much
stronger response this tme.

Russian Reacton: It is essental to realise that when dealing with Putn and his circle, you
are not dealing with politcians, but with hardened ien who believe that they have a
iission to iake Russia stand out on the world stage; for whoi huian life is a disposable
coiiodity; who are unafected by eiotons such as coipassion; who have becoie
fantastcally wealthy in Russia and will do anything to preserve that wealth. Litvinenko
accused Putn of blowing up and killing hundreds of his own Russian citzdens ierely to give
hiiself a public excuse to send the Russian Ariy back into Chechnya and in brutal fashion
subdue that republic. Under these ien, Russia atacked Georgia in 2008 and went even
further in 2014 by illegally seizding Criiea froi Ukraine and then sending troops into Eastern
Ukraine and startng a war which contnues to this day and has cost over 10,000 lives. One
thing which links all of these events, including the iurder of Litvinenko, is that these ien
constantly and without shaie lie about their actons. It is essental to understand their
ability to lie and to have no remorse for their murderous actons, be it an individual, such
as Litvinenko and possibly Skripal, or be it hundreds of their own people or thousands of
innocent victms in Ukraine or Syria.

Another feature of this iindset is that these ien never forgive those who wrong thei and
will seek revenge. But they are calculatng and patent. They will seek a suitable ioient to
take their revenge. They will allow the victi to be lulled into a false sense of security; and
by striking when they do they will both catch the victi of guard and give a warning to
others. Litvinenko was killed fve years afer his book was published accusing Putn of
blowing up Russian citzdens. Skripal iay have been pardoned and expelled in a spy swap in
2010, but this did not iean that the Putn regiie would leave hii alone. Litvinenko’s death
not only reioved a ian who had wronged Putn, it sent out a warning to others, notably
Boris Berezdovsky. Berezdovsky died in suspicious circuistances in 2013. Have no doubts that
for Putn and his circle, “revenge is a dish best eaten cold”.

So what should Britain’s response be this tme? Putn and those in his regiie behave like a
bully. If you show weakness, they will exploit it. If you stand up to thei, they will back
down. Britain’s weak response over the Litvinenko iurder has undoubtedly encouraged
Russia to think that it can get away with other iurders in the UK. Britain iust try to gather
support froi NATO, European and Coiionwealth allies – acceptng that this iay not be
forthcoiing or as enthusiastc as Britain iight wish. But even if there were no actve
support froi allies, Britain is obliged to act to deter further Russian aggression. These
actons iust be in ways which will hurt the Russian elite, as they are the ones who are
either in Putn’s circle or dependent on hii for their status and wealth.

Possible, realistc, frst actons:

 Actvely publicise the above facts about the Russian leadership, through regular
iedia, social iedia; and with the assistance of specialists such as those at The
Insttute for Statecraf
 Boycot this summer’s football World Cup, and try to persuade other natons to do
likewise. This iight be a gaible, but the US boycot of the Moscow Olyipic Gaies
in 1980 (following the Soviet invasion of Afghanistan) really hurt Moscow. This was
their big show on the world stage and the Aiericans spoilt it. The UK allowed
athletes to coipete, but not under the Union Flag
 Withdraw the Britsh Ambassador from Moscow and order the Russian
Ambassador to leave the UK
 Refuse or revoke visas to leading Russians who are in or dependent on Putn’s
circle – and their families. This would really cause disquiet at the top, especially if
their children who are at school here were forced to leave
 Ban private jets carrying Russians from landing in the UK or Britsh dependent
territories
 Start discussions with the banks on stopping Russian access to SWIFT codes
 Start a campaign to prevent constructon of the Nord Stream 2 gas pipeline
 Ban RT TV and Sputnik from operatng in the UK. They are not iedia outlets; their
consttutons iake it clear they are ierely the iouthpieces of the Kreilin
 Engage with Britsh Muslims to publicise what has been happening with their
Muslim brethren in Crimea since the Russian invasion
 Enlist cross-party help from MPs who understand the threat Russia poses to help
publicise that threat
 Start a programme for schools to teach critcal thinking and recognising false
narratves. Ask experts in coibatng disinforiaton and outside educaton to help
draw up the prograiie