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e-Journal Earth Science India, Vol. I (III), pp. 138-147
http://www.earthscienceindia.info/

Climate Change and its Future Impact on the

Indo-Gangetic Plain (IGP)
H. S. Saini
Geological Survey of India, Faridabad
Email: hssainigsi@gmail.com

Abstract
The Indo-Gangetic plain (IGP) is an environmentally sensitive, socially
significant and economically strategic domain of India where landscape, hydrology
and fertility are threatened by climate warming and anthropogenic pressure.
Irregular availability of water is going to be the biggest hazard in future. In case of
increased water supply, the piedmont zone and river lowlands are threatened by
erosion and sedimentation while in case of decreased water supply, the upland
surface is endangered by salinization, desertification and drying-up of aquifers.
Decline in food production will be the major problem. In order to make
assessments of the environmental changes, concerted efforts should be initiated to
understand the geological past and model the future. A pre-requisite is to develop a
high resolution history of climate variations and their impact on landscape and
ecology from the geological and historical records of IGP during the past 25 ka.
Such data can help in the evaluation of forecasting scenarios, and thereby assist in
developing mitigation plans regarding the environment. Artificially induced recycling
the water can be one of the possible ways to maintain a minimum availability of
water.

Introduction

A major concern stands emphasized further after the release of the

assessment reports of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) in
February and May 2007. It is difficult to ignore the scientific conclusions drawn in the
reports for the globe in general and India in particular. Today, an ordinary person is
aware of the extreme events of unseasonal rains, monsoonal drought and rapid
temperature fluctuations. He interprets them as the advance indications of an impending
change in climate. Climate is not changing for the first time. It has changed several
times in the geological past. The most recent of such changes were during the
Quaternary period, which began with a major cooling of the earth’s environment about
1.8 m.y. ago. Since then, there have been nine phases of cooling when glacial masses
on the earth advanced significantly. The warm intervals between successive glaciations
too had pulses of cooling. We live in the interglacial period i.e. Holocene. Since its
inception, around 11,000 years ago, it has witnessed six climatic changes (Mayewski et
al., 2004). Among them, the last spell of cooling known as little Ice Age, between 15th
and 19th Century, and the last spell of warming Medieval Warm Epoch between10th and
13/14th centaury are historically known (Wigley et al, 1981, Lamb, 1982).

Human societies have suffered enormously due to climatic changes but

ultimately most were able to adjust by changing their life style and migrating to the
hospitable areas. Few centuries back, the impact of climate was not so severe because
the population was less, it lived in small groups and economic stakes were low. Their
migration to the fertile areas was easier because large areas on the earth were yet to be
habited. Today, the societies have grown tremendously and are anchored in areas that
are difficult to abandon because of the high economic stakes. Most of the habitable land
is occupied. So if a population is forced to migrate under the pressure of global warming,
there is not much place left for resettlement.

In the past the earth’s climate changed due to natural reasons. Milankovitch
effect, plate tectonics and rise of mountain chains are considered as the major driving
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forces (Ruddiman and Kutzbach, 1989; Ruddiman, 2001). But the present cause
of global warming is, in part, manmade due to the increased concentration of carbon
dioxide in the atmosphere (IPCC, 2007). The fear of environmental ‘losses’ has
stimulated the world to strategize the reduction of carbon emission in the atmosphere.
Our past actions have already perturbed the earth climate system, and the impact of
which is inevitable in future. The projected global warming has the potential to change
the course of history, if not tackled in right earnest.

Today, the scientific community faces two primary tasks: a) to stabilize and
reduce the carbon dioxide build-up in the atmosphere and b) to develop the hazard
specific mitigation measures so that the earth’s surface can sustain the societies. For the
first task, affordable technologies have to be evolved and dependence on fossil fuel to be
minimized in energy and transport sectors. This topic, however, is beyond the scope of
this article. The second task requires the acquisition of specific knowledge about the
types of hazard likely to develop, delineation of areas to be affected by them and
working out suitable mitigation strategies for each one of them.

The Indian Scene

The Indian landmass consists of three physiographic domains; the Himalayas,

Indo-Gangetic Plain (IGP), and Peninsular Shield (Fig.1). The Himalaya is the highest
domain of rugged topography with deep valleys and high hill ranges. It is a tectonically
active terrain shaped by the dissection of crystalline and sedimentary ranges by glacial,
glacio-fluvial and fluvial agencies. It houses several hundred glaciers that feed and
maintain the perennial flow of the Indus, Ganga and Brahmputra systems and is the
main contributor of detrital loads to rivers landscaping the IGP, deltas and sub-marine
floors. Erosion of its landforms plays an important role in the carbon contribution to
atmosphere and has a direct bearing on the global climate change (Raymo and
Ruddiman,1992).

The Indo-Gangetic Plain is a 400-800 km wide, low relief, east-west zone

between the Himalaya in the north and the Peninsula in the south (Fig.1). It is a sinking
basin that came in to being about 50 Ma ago due to epiorogenic movements of
Himalaya and was subsequently filled up by the sediments deposited by northerly and
southerly drainage under the influence of climate changes, mainly from the Middle
Miocene (Rowley 1996).

The present surface configuration of IGP was fashioned about 100 ka BP

(Gibling et al., 2005). Its western part - the Punjab and Haryana Plains, constitute the
Indus regime which has a southwesterly master slope and is drained by a perennial
Satluj system in the extreme west and by short rain- fed, southerly –southwesterly
flowing, ephemeral streams like Ghagghar and Markanda in the east. A subordinate
system of northerly flowing seasonal streams namely Krishnawati and Sahibi originating
from the northern part of Aravali ranges drain this regime from the south although they
carry only a small sediment load from the adjoining alluvial-aeolian plain. This is an arid
to semi-arid, water-starved region with annual precipitation of 300-600mm and an
evaporation of 1200 mm. In spite of the dry climate, a network of canals sustains the
intensive cultivation of the entire surface. Natural forest is absent. Groundwater is fresh
and shallow in the vicinity of canals but saline and deep near the margin of the Thar
Desert. The surface is densely populated and cultivated.
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Fig.1: (A) Regional Goggle image of the northern part of India and its
surrounding showing Himalayas, Indigangetic plain and northern part of
Peninsula. The white patches in Himalayas are glaciers (B) Figure of the
above image showing drainage pattern in Punjab Haryana and Ganga
plains

The area east of the Yamuna river constitutes the Ganga basin which has a
sub-humid to humid climate with 600-1000mm of average rainfall. Unlike Haryana –
Punjab plain, it has a well developed drainage of Himalayan-fed, southeasterly flowing
perennial system of Ganga and its tributaries like Yamuna, Ramganga, and Kosi. It also
has some streams like Gomti, Sai etc which originate in the piedmont and are fed by rain
and groundwater. A prominent northerly flowing river system consisting of Betwa,
Chambal and Son originating from the northern margin of peninsula join the Yamuna and
Ganga rivers in the southern part of the Ganga plain (Kumar et al., 1996). The IGP can
be divided into three major geomorphic units namely, piedmont, central alluvial plain
and marginal alluvial plain (Singh, 1996; Kar et al., 1997). Some of the important
hazards mapped in IGP are shown in Fig.2. Piedmont is a narrow, forested, zone of
gravelly-muddy sediments along the Himalayan foothills affected by gully erosion. Rivers
passing from the Himalayas shed their coarse sediment load in this zone and multiply
their channels in braided fashion. The central alluvial plain is 200-400 Km wide stretch
with gradual southerly and SE slope in Ganga plain and SW slope in Haryana- Punjab
plain. The rivers have 2-8km wide valleys forming distinct lowlands, about 2-10m lower
than the adjoining upland. The lowland valleys have flat terraces (T1 and T2) and channel
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bars. The regional upland surface is the master plain which is extensively cultivated and
habited. Sand ridges, lakes, depressions and ponds are main landforms while soils
salinity, flooding, riverine erosion are the main hazards in the Ganga plain and
desertification and ground water salinity in the Punjab and Haryana Plains (Saini et al.,
2001), (Fig. 2). The marginal alluvial plain is a northerly sloping zone which was formed
by the deposits of the northerly drainages from the peninsula. In Haryana, this zone is
poorly defined due to the overlapping by aeolian deposits.

Fig.2: Map of parts of Indo-Gangetic plain showing important hazards. (1. Soil
erosion, 2. Flooding, 3. Soil salinity, 4. Desertification, 5.water logging, 6.
Hard rock exposures.)

IGP is critical

The importance of IGP is due to its high population density and agricultural
production. Its climate is controlled by the monsoon rains. Since IGP is strongly
connected to the tectonics and climate of Himalaya, any changes in these factors are
liable to adversely affect the hydrology, soil fertility, food production and settlement
pattern of IGP. Moreover, its proximity to Thar Desert is another cause of concern as
the processes of sand movement can force undesirable modifications in the landscape of
IGP under varying conditions of temperature and rainfall.

Besides natural threats, the IGP is also overstressed due to over exploitation
of the land and water resources. The cultivable land is replaced by urbanization leading
to increase in waste production. It can be concluded that IGP is under the twin threat of
increasing population and climate change.
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Climate Change and Associated Hazards

One of the primary concerns of climate shift is whether precipitation will

decrease or increase in a given region? This will decide whether the potential hazards
will be due to excessive availability of water or scarcity of water. The traditional model
indicates that evaporation and humidity will increase due to warming. However, the
warm air will hold the water for long duration that will delay and slow down the
precipitation. On the contrary, some recent studies indicate that global warming could
increase the precipitation by about 20% (Wentz and Schabel, 2000, Wentz et al., 2007).
Assuming that precipitation and temperature will change, we can anticipate rapid as well
as slow hazards in the IGP that may nucleate in Himalaya as well as in the IGP. Rapid
hazards like flood, erosion and deposition will possibly accompany the increased
precipitation while slow hazard like soil -salinization, desertification, drought, ground
water subsidence, shrinkage of water bodies and diminished flow in rivers will follow
when precipitation is decreased. Both can lead to change in the boundary conditions of
landforms, land-water and vegetation. Our concern is how and when the land and water
systems in IGP will respond to these variations. Studies have shown that the impacts of
climate controlled short and long-term changes on landscape and river systems could be
predicted (Moll et al., 2000, Veldkamp and Tebbans, 2001, Boggart et al., 2003). In the
context of IGP, we need to examine such changes during the last glacial and present
interglacial period (i.e. 25 ka) to know how landscape, ecology and hydrological systems
were affected when the water supply to IGP decreased and increased.

It may be assumed that initially the warming will trigger melting of glaciers
and snow in Himalaya and a change in precipitation mode from snowfall to rainfall. It will
increase the availability of water leading to accelerate erosion of the Himalayan
landforms and production of detritus that may increase the sediment storage in the
valley. A close example of this situation in the past can be taken from the hypsithermal
event of Holocene, around 8-6 ka BP, when fluvial erosion filled up to 80m of the valleys
with regoliths, which were also subsequently transported downstream (Pratt et al.,
2002). But it takes few hundred years to complete the cycle because there is a response
time for landscape elements and geological agencies to adjust to the new conditions. The
IGP and its river valleys will possibly shift towards changed conditions of sediment load,
river flow velocity and discharge.

Traditionally, our societal and agricultural needs, conservation and exploitation

pattern of water are adapted to the existing monsoonal climate and adjusted with the
seasonal behavior of river flow and sub-surface aquifers. After debouching the alluvial
plain, the piedmont zone would be the first target of fluvial erosion due to its sloping
topography and loose lithology. It is already affected by the gully erosion (Fig. 2) which
is likely to be intensified under accelerated flow velocity leading to the extension of
badland and loss of forest land. Further downstream, in the central alluvial plain where
slope is gentler, deposition of fresh sediment layers in the lowlands may occur. In fact
the maximum sedimentary growth of IGP has taken place during the earlier
wet interstadials in Late Quaternary as megafans near the Himalayan front and as
channel and flood plain deposits in the down stream (Shukla et al., 2001, Kar et al.,
1997). The lowlands are few hundred meters to more than 10 kilometer wide
tortuous surfaces on either side of the Himalayan mountain-fed rivers. Though less
populated, these surfaces are preferred for agriculture on account of fine textured soil,
proximity with the perennial water source and fresh quality of shallow ground water.
These are stabilized surface in which the cultivation pattern has evolved through
centuries of experience. Fresh sedimentation due to change in the hydrodynamics of the
rivers would lead to landscape modification in this terrain element and is likely to affect
the cultivation style.
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In second scenario, when precipitation is decreased, the western part of

IGP i.e. Haryana –Punjab plains, adjacent to the Thar desert become the most
vulnerable sector because it is already a water scarce region with history of drought and
desertification. It has undergone a major phase of desertification around 16ka BP when
large dunes were deposited up to Delhi (Glennie et al., 2002) followed by several pulses
of humid and semi-arid climate( Enzel et al.,1999; Saini et al., 2005). These plains are
sensitive to even smaller changes in climate and respond much quicker than the desert
core. Rainfall at the eastern limit of Thar is around 300mm and 600mm in the latitude of
Delhi. If we assume that rainfall decreases by 300mm, it will account for an average
of 50% reduction, which is sufficient to transform the area into an arid zone. In the
Ganga plain, east of Delhi, where rainfall is between 600-1400mm, a decrease of
300mm rainfall will not change the climatic zone and thus effects will be marginal.

The Haryana –Punjab plain becomes more critical in the light of past events.
This area was once a site of the famous Indus valley civilization, when Harappan culture
flourished in the Ghagghar-Hakara basin. Hundreds of cultural mounds scattered in
northwestern Haryana and southeastern Punjab are testimony that a large population
lived on these plains. The exact cause of the downfall of civilization is debatable;
however increased aridity, drought, soil salinisation and desertification are cited as the
possible causes (Bakliwal and Grover, 1980; Mishra, 1984; Sahai, 1999). The downfall is
estimated around 200BC. There is also a growing volume of opinion on the existence of a
mighty river named “Vedic Saraswati” in this region that flowed from Himalaya to
Arabian sea and later disappeared due to tectonic disturbances and climate change
(Wilhelmy, 1999; Oldham, 1999; Roy and Jakhar, 2001). Although a complete
chronology of events and precise evidence of the cause of decimation of civilization and
the Saraswati river are yet to be established, however, it is evident that the area has
witnessed medium to large scale changes in landscape and the climatic variations which
appear to be one of the major factors. In the event of a decrease in rainfall in future,
there are strong possibilities of the Thar Desert to spread over this region, thereby
changing the landscape, and making the land uncultivable.

Even a rise in temperature by 20o C can lead to a fall in farm production

between 4 and 34% (IPCC, 2007). The soil salinity, already prevalent in the plains of
Haryana, Punjab and western Uttar Pradesh, is bound to extend over the marginally
saline areas reducing the availability of agricultural land. This will put additional stress on
the already declining water table. The groundwater exploitation is likely to be intensified
and consequently the water stressed areas will become water scarce. It can lead to
change in river habit from gainer to contributor as shown in Fig.3 of Yamuna river in
Faridabad district, U.P.
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Fig.3: The change in the water table in the surrounding of Yamuna river south
of Delhi (Faridabad district, U.P.). The excessive withdrawal of ground
water has changed the nature of Yamuna River from an affluent to
influent river.

What can be done?

It is difficult to predict how exactly the warming will affect people in different regions of
the globe. In the IGP changing environments have the potential to decrease the
productive capabilities. We may have to deal with two kinds of situations: when water
resource increases and second when water resource decreases. A possible approach is to
model the behavior of IGP under conditions of excess and deficit water. For this we could
seek past analogues based on the environmental changes in the last ~ 25ka time slice in
the Himalaya and IGP and to analyze past responses of land, water and vegetation to
such changes. The task will involve the collection, collation and synthesis of basin wise
stratigraphic records, proxies of rainfall and temperature, so that the pattern of monsoon
variation in time and space could be reconstructed. This will help in setting up and
testing future hypothesis on landscape response to the fluctuations in climatic
parameters as well as in identifying the areas according to their vulnerability to different
kinds of hazards. Based upon these inputs, management plan(s) for storage, distribution
and conservation of water could be attempted; and appropriate modifications in cropping
pattern and new techniques for land use, and irrigation evolved.

There are several conventional approaches like construction of reservoirs,

water harvesting, and water recycling which on a limited scale are employed for short
term management of water resources. Under global warming scenario, such approaches
may require re-assessment. Today, a large part of the river water flows unutilized to the
sea and it may not be practical to store it in reservoirs which have their own adverse
impact on the environment. The ideal situation will be to have a regular supply of water
through precipitation. Is it possible to ‘store’ the excess water of Himalayan rivers back
in the atmosphere and then facilitate its re-precipitation? It amounts to creating an
artificial climatic domain by changing the circulation pattern and enriching the moisture
content of air. One possible way is to increase evaporation of the water from water
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surplus areas through plantation, increase moisture in the atmosphere and receive it
back as precipitation. This approach includes identification of water surplus areas i.e.
pumping zones, afforestation of suitable plant species i.e. transpiration surface, and
understanding of the atmospheric circulation so as to know whether the evaporated
water can be re-precipitated in the areas of interest. In this way a large proportion of
water can be retained in the IGP before it goes to the sea. There are good chances that
the increased moisture content of air may bring good rains over the IGP. The concept is
highly preliminary and speculative but has the potential to address the problem of future
water shortages. The need is to make institutionalized efforts with shared expertise and
focused approach. Presently there is no such institution, though sporadic and un-
coordinated investigations on hydrology, agriculture and geology are being undertaken
by various individuals and groups.

Acknowledgements: I wish to record my gratefulness to Prof. S.K.Tandon, University of Delhi

who nucleated the thought of preserving the sustenance of IGP as a social surface under changing
environments. The idea was refined by several discussions with my colleagues, Dr. N. C. Pant,
S.A.I Mujtaba and R. K. Khorana of the Geological Survey of India. There could be several
deficiencies in the write up as it is just a spark in the hazy horizon of understanding. I also wish to
thank Sri D.D. Bhattacharya, whose consistent efforts made me complete the manuscript. The
efforts put in by an anonymous reviver are thankfully acknowledged.

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