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HIGH-LEVEL
FIGHTTUBERCULOSIS
TO END TUBERCULO
REPORT2018, UNHQ, NEW Y
26 SEPTEMBER
EXECUTIVE
SUMMARY
2018
Context
On 26 September 2018, the United Nations (UN) will hold its first high-
level meeting on tuberculosis (TB), at its headquarters in New York. The
title of the meeting – United to End TB: An Urgent Global Response to a
Global Epidemic – highlights the need for immediate action to accelerate
progress towards the goal of ending the TB epidemic by 2030.
All Member States of WHO and the UN have committed to this goal,
initially through their unanimous endorsement of WHO’s End TB
Strategy at the World Health Assembly in May 2014 and then their
adoption of the UN Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs) in
September 2015. Specific targets for 2030 set in the End TB Strategy
are a 90% reduction in the absolute number of TB deaths and an
80% reduction in TB incidence (new cases per 100 000 population
per year), compared with levels in 20151.
DEVELOPMENT ERA:
A MULTISECTORAL RESPONSE MOSCOW
DECLARATION
TO END TB
16-17 NOVEMBER 2017,
MOSCOW, RUSSIAN FEDERATION 1
AFRICAN UNION
SUMMIT
July 2018
Latest status
the world’s cases of MDR/RR-TB: India (24%), China (13%)
and the Russian Federation (10%).
Globally, 3.6% of new TB cases and 17% of previously
IN 2017
1.6 MILLION 10 MILLION
TB DEATHS INCLUDING
0.3 MILLION DEATHS AMONG
PEOPLE
PEOPLE WITH HIV FELL ILL
WITH TB
TB IS THE AND MAJOR CAUSE 5.8 3.2 1
LEADING KILLER OF DEATH DUE TO MILLION MILLION MILLION
OF PEOPLE WITH HIV ANTIMICROBIAL RESISTANCE MEN WOMEN CHILDREN
were in the WHO European Region (5% per year) and the 2017 were inTBthe WHO
deaths European Region
among
All TB cases HIV-negative people
WHO African Region (4% per year). In the same 5 years, 1.0(11% per year) and the WHO South-East
particularly impressive reductions (4–8% per year) occurred Asia Region (4% per year). High TB burden
5 Notifications of new
in southern Africa (e.g. Eswatini, Lesotho, Namibia,
and relapse cases South countries with rates of decline exceeding
0.5
Africa, Zambia and Zimbabwe), following a peak in the 6% per yearTBindeaths
the among
5 years 2013–2017
HIV epidemic and the expansion of TB and HIV prevention include the HIV-positive
Russian people
Federation (13% per
HIV-positive TB cases
incident TBand care;
cases and0 and in the Russian
the number Federation
of TB deaths (5% per year),
(in millions), 0year), Ethiopia (12% per year), Sierra Leone
tainty intervals. 2000
following intensified 2005to reduce
efforts 2010
the burden 2015
of TB and 2000 per year),
(10% 2005 Kenya 2010 2015 and
(8% per year)
scrutiny of progress from the highest political levels. Viet Nam (8% per year).
TB deaths
FIG. 3.7
Global trends in estimated TB incidence and mortality rates, 2000–2017. Shaded areas represent
INCIDENCE AND MORTALITY
uncertainty
1.5 intervals.
year per year
TB deaths among
TB incidence
HIV-negative people TB mortality (HIV-negative)
1.0
Rate per 100 000 population per year
200
Millions
30
of new
Rate per 100 000 population per
cases
0.5
150
TB deaths among 20
HIV-positive people
All TB cases
100
0
2015 2000 2005 2010 2015
Notifications of new 10
50 and relapse cases
HIV-positive TB cases
nd mortality rates, 2000–2017.
0 Shaded areas represent 0
2000 2005 2010 2015 2000 2005 2010 2015
Primary
TB mortality (HIV-negative) school children
an HIV-positive person dies from TB, the underlying estimated as the product of TB incidence and the case in a village in
Rate per 100 000 population per year
30 northern Lao
cause is classified as HIV. For consistency with these fatality ratio (CFR), or through ecological modelling using People’s Democratic
international classifications, this section makes a clear mortality data from countries with VR systems. Republic. Hadynyah
/ Getty Images
distinction
20 between TB deaths in HIV-negative people TB mortality among HIV-positive people is hard to
and TB deaths in HIV-positive people. measure, even when VR systems are in place, because
deaths among HIV-positive people are coded as HIV
3.2.1 Methods to estimate TB mortality deaths, and contributory causes (e.g. TB) are often not
ns of new 10
TB mortality among HIV-negative people can be meas- reliably assessed and recorded. TB deaths among HIV-
BERCULOSIS REPORT 2018
se cases
ured directly using data from national vital registration positive people were estimated as the product of TB
(VR) systems, provided that these systems have high incidence and the CFR, with the latter accounting for the
coverage0 and that causes of death are accurately protective effect of ART.
2015 determined 2000and coded2005
according 2010 2015
to ICD-10. Sample VR Until 2008, WHO estimates of TB mortality used VR
systems covering representative areas of the country (the or mortality survey data for only three countries. This
approach used, for example, in China) provide an interim was substantially improved to 89 countries in 2009, al-
estimated as the product EXECUTIVE SUMMARY 2018 3
underlying solution. Mortality surveysofcan
TB also
incidence andtothe
be used case
estimate though most of the data were from countries in the WHO
with these fatality ratio (CFR), or through ecological modelling using
TB diagnosis and CLOSING GAPS IN CARE
treatment
Diagnosis and successful treatment of people with TB
3.6
MILLION
6.4 MILLION
WERE DETECTED
AND NOTIFIED
3.6 MILLION
averts millions of deaths each year (an estimated 54 million GLOBAL PEOPLE WITH
TB WERE
over the period 2000–2017), but there are still large and GAP UNDIAGNOSED
OR DETECTED AND
persistent gaps in detection and treatment. NOT REPORTED
Worldwide in 2017, 6.4 million new cases of TB were
officially notified to national authorities and then reported
to WHO. This number has been increasing since 2013, TOP COUNTRIES
WITH THE
INDIA
INDONESIA
following 4 years (2009–2012) in which 5.7–5.8 million 3 BIGGEST GAPS NIGERIA
new cases were reported annually, mainly due to increased
reporting of detected cases by the private sector in India
and, in 2017, an upturn in notifications in Indonesia. Gaps between the estimated number of new cases and
the number actually reported are due to a mixture of
The 6.4 million cases reported represented 64% of the underreporting of detected cases, and underdiagnosis
estimated 10.0 million new cases that occurred in 2017. (either because people do not access health care, or because
Ten countries accounted for 80% of the 3.6 million global they are not diagnosed when they do). Underestimation or
gap, the top three being India (26%), Indonesia (11%) and overestimation of the total number of new cases is also
Nigeria (9%). possible. An informative example is Indonesia; in 2017,
a national study found that although about 80% of new
cases were detected, 41% of these cases were not reported.
Actions to correct underreporting are being put in place.
There were 464 633 reported cases of TB among people
living with HIV in 2017 (51% of the estimated 920 000 new
cases in the same year), of whom 84% were on antiretroviral
therapy. Most of the gaps in detection and treatment were
in the WHO African Region, where the burden of HIV-
associated TB is highest.
2
BILLION
US$ REQUIRED
PER YEAR FOR
TB RESEARCH
1
The first milestones, for 2020, are a 35% reduction in TB deaths and a 20% reduction in TB incidence, compared with
2015. The SDG target of ending the TB epidemic is part of SDG Target 3.3, under the SDG health goal (SDG 3).
2
Here and throughout the report, “range” refers to the 95% uncertainty interval.
3
When an HIV-positive person dies from TB disease, the underlying cause is coded as HIV in the International classification
of diseases system.
4
The other 22 countries are Angola, Brazil, Cambodia, Central African Republic, Congo, the Democratic People’s Republic
of Korea, the Democratic Republic of the Congo, Ethiopia, Kenya, Lesotho, Liberia, Mozambique, Myanmar, Namibia,
Papua New Guinea, the Russian Federation, Sierra Leone, Thailand, the United Republic of Tanzania, Viet Nam, Zambia
and Zimbabwe.
5
Defined as resistance to rifampicin and isoniazid.
6
Defined as MDR-TB plus resistance to at least one drug in the following two classes of medicines used in treatment of
MDR-TB: fluoroquinolones and second-line injectable agents.
7
The absolute number has been around 10 million per year since 2000, and has fallen slowly since 2005.
8
http://www.who.int/tb/joint-initiative/en/
9
The other eight are Indonesia, Mozambique, Myanmar, Nigeria, Pakistan, the Philippines, the Russian Federation and
Ukraine.
10
The countries listed are those treating at least 500 MDR/RR-TB patients annually.
11
This figure is based on a recent extension of Global Plan projections, which indicate that at least US$ 13 billion will be
required annually by 2022.
12
Around 10 or fewer new TB cases per 100 000 population per year and less than one TB death per 100 000 population
per year.
END