MAGNITUDE AND FAULTING: FORESHOCKS, AFTERSHOCKS, AND SWARMS

Foreshocks

A foreshock is an earthquake that occurs before a larger seismic event (the mainshock)

and is related to it in both time and space. The designation of an earthquake as foreshock,

mainshock or aftershock is only possible after the full sequence of events has happened.

Foreshock activity has been detected for about 40% of all moderate to large earthquakes,

and about 70% for events of M>7.0. They occur from a matter of minutes to days or even longer

before the main shock; for example, the 2002 Sumatra earthquake is regarded as a foreshock of

the 2004 Indian Ocean earthquake with a delay of more than two years between the two events.

Some great earthquakes (M>8.0) show no foreshock activity at all, such as the M8.6 1950 India -

China earthquake.

The observation of foreshocks associated with many earthquakes suggests that they are

part of a preparation process prior to nucleation. In one model of earthquake rupture, the process

forms as a cascade, starting with a very small event that triggers a larger one, continuing until the

main shock rupture is triggered. However, analysis of some foreshocks has shown that they tend

to relieve stress around the fault. In this view, foreshocks and aftershocks are part of the same

process. This is supported by an observed relationship between the rate of foreshocks and the

rate of aftershocks for an event.

An increase in seismic activity in an area has been used as a method of predicting

earthquakes, most notably in the case of the 1975 Haicheng earthquake in China, where an

evacuation was triggered by an increase in activity. However, most earthquakes lack obvious

foreshock patterns and this method has not proven useful, as most small earthquakes are not
foreshocks, leading to probable false alarms. In short, foreshocks are earthquakes that precede

larger earthquakes in the same location. An earthquake cannot be identified as a foreshock until

after a larger earthquake in the same area occurs.

Worldwide the probability that an earthquake will be followed within 3 days by a large

earthquake nearby is somewhere just over 6%. In California, that probability is about 6%. This

means that there is about a 94% chance that any earthquake will NOT be a foreshock. In

California, about half of the biggest earthquakes were preceded by foreshocks; the other half

were not. At this time, we cannot tell whether or not an earthquake is a foreshock until something

larger happens after it.

Aftershocks

Aftershocks are smaller earthquakes that occur in the same general area during the days

to years following a larger event or "mainshock." They occur within 1-2 fault lengths away and

during the period of time before the background seismicity level has resumed. As a general rule,

aftershocks represent minor readjustments along the portion of a fault that slipped at the time of

the mainshock. The frequency of these aftershocks decreases with time. Historically, deep

earthquakes (>30 km) are much less likely to be followed by aftershocks than shallow

earthquakes. Large earthquakes can have hundreds to thousands of instrumentally detectable

aftershocks, which steadily decrease in magnitude and frequency according to known laws.

Most aftershocks are located over the full area of fault rupture and either occur along the

fault plane itself or along other faults within the volume affected by the strain associated with the

main shock. Typically, aftershocks are found up to a distance equal to the rupture length away
from the fault plane. Aftershocks are dangerous because they are usually unpredictable, can be of

a large magnitude, and can collapse buildings that are damaged from the main shock. Bigger

earthquakes have more and larger aftershocks and the sequences can last for years or even longer

especially when a large event occurs in a seismically quiet area

Aftershock Size and Frequency with Time

1. Omori’s Law

The frequency of aftershocks decreases roughly with the reciprocal of time

after the main shock. This empirical relation was first described by Fusakichi

Omori in 1894 and is known as Omori's law. It is expressed as:

k
n ( t )=
(c +t)

where k and c are constants, which vary between earthquake sequences. A

modified version of Omori's law, now commonly used, was proposed by Utsu in

1961.

k
n ( t )= p
(c +t)

where p is a third constant which modifies the decay rate and typically falls in the

range 0.7–1.5.

According to these equations, the rate of aftershocks decreases quickly

with time. The rate of aftershocks is proportional to the inverse of time since the

mainshock and this relationship can be used to estimate the probability of future
 aftershock occurrence. These patterns describe only the statistical behavior of

aftershocks; the actual times, numbers and locations of the aftershocks are

stochastic, while tending to follow these patterns. As this is an empirical law,

values of the parameters are obtained by fitting to data after a mainshock has

occurred, and they imply no specific physical mechanism in any given case.

2. Båth's law

The other main law describing aftershocks is known as Båth's Law and

this states that the difference in magnitude between a main shock and its largest

aftershock is approximately constant, independent of the main shock magnitude,

typically 1.1–1.2 on the Moment magnitude scale.

3. Gutenberg–Richter law

Aftershock sequences also typically follow the Gutenberg–Richter law of

size scaling, which refers to the relationship between the magnitude and total

number of earthquakes in a region in a given time period. In summary, there are

more small aftershocks and fewer large aftershocks.

a−bM
N=10

Where:

 N is the number of events greater or equal to M

 M is the magnitude
 a and b are constants
Mainshocks

The mainshock is the largest earthquake in a sequence, sometimes preceded by one or

more foreshocks, and almost always followed by many aftershocks. Here is a graphical

representation of the full series of the events of foreshock-mainshock-aftershock sequence from

the USGS (U.S. Geological Survey) website:

 In summary, foreshocks are earthquakes that occur before the largest seismic event.

Foreshocks only prepares the faulting of the crust and then followed by the mainshock. The

mainshock is the largest earthquake in magnitude that affect the crust of the earth and induce

faulting. And lastly, a series of aftershocks follow to help the crust of the earth adjust to the its

new form.
Earthquake Swarms

Earthquake swarms are events where a local area experiences sequences of many

earthquakes striking in a relatively short period of time. The length of time used to define the

swarm itself varies, but may be of the order of days, weeks, or months. Numerous earthquakes

occur locally over an extended period without a clear sequence of foreshocks, main quakes and

aftershocks. They are therefore nothing extraordinary. Swarms usually end after a few days or

months. Only seldom does the strength and number of earthquakes increase over time or do

occur single, damaging events. How an earthquake swarm develops over time is just as difficult

to predict as earthquakes are in general.

Many earthquake swarms occur in regions with complex contiguous fracture systems.

The theory is that they are related to the movement of fluid gases and liquids in the Earth’s crust.

In 2017, the Philippine province of Batangas experienced an earthquake swarm with

magnitudes between 5 and 6. The quake was felt in varying intensities in surrounding areas and

as far as Manila’s financial district of Makati. The movement was felt in varying intensities in

about 40 towns in Batangas, Laguna, Cavite and Quezon and in metropolitan Manila. Nearly 800

small aftershocks were reported but they were too weak to trigger a tsunami.

Here is a diagram to further understand its difference from the normal sequencing of

earthquakes: