Accepted Manuscript

New design equations for estimation of ultimate bearing capacity of shallow

foundations resting on rock masses

Amir H. Alavi, Ehsan Sadrossadat

PII: S1674-9871(14)00162-5
DOI: 10.1016/j.gsf.2014.12.005
Reference: GSF 341

To appear in: Geoscience Frontiers

Received Date: 4 September 2014

Revised Date: 14 November 2014
Accepted Date: 6 December 2014

Please cite this article as: Alavi, A.H., Sadrossadat, E., New design equations for estimation of ultimate
bearing capacity of shallow foundations resting on rock masses, Geoscience Frontiers (2015), doi:
10.1016/j.gsf.2014.12.005.

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 ACCEPTED MANUSCRIPT

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 1 ACCEPTEDofMANUSCRIPT
New design equations for estimation ultimate bearing capacity of shallow
2 foundations resting on rock masses
3
4 Amir H. Alavi a, Ehsan Sadrossadat b,*
5

6 aDepartment of Civil and Environmental Engineering, Michigan State University 428 S. Shaw Lane, Eas
7 t Lansing, MI 48823, USA.
8 b Department of Civil Engineering, Kerman Graduate University of Technology, Kerman, Iran.

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9
10

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11 Corresponding author. Email: e.sadrossadat@gmail.com
12

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13 Abstract

14 Rock masses are commonly used as the underlying layer of important structures such as

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15 bridges, dams and transportation constructions. The success of a foundation design for such
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16 structures mainly depends on the accuracy of estimating the bearing capacity of rock beneath

17 them. Several traditional numerical approaches are proposed for the estimation of the bearing
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18 capacity of foundations resting on rock masses to avoid performing elaborate and expensive

experimental studies. Despite this fact, there still exists a serious need to develop more robust
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19

20 predictive models. This paper proposes new nonlinear prediction models for the ultimate
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21 bearing capacity of shallow foundations resting on non-fractured rock masses using a novel
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22 evolutionary computational approach, called linear genetic programming. A comprehensive set

23 of rock socket, centrifuge rock socket, plate load and large-scaled footing load test results is
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24 used to develop the models. In order to verify the validity of the models, the sensitivity
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25 analysis is conducted and discussed. The results indicate that the proposed models accurately

26 characterize the bearing capacity of shallow foundations. The correlation coefficients between

27 the experimental and predicted bearing capacity values are equal to 0.95 and 0.96 for the best

28 LGP models. Moreover, the derived models reach a notably better prediction performance than

29 the traditional equations.

30

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31 ACCEPTED
Keywords: Rock mass properties; MANUSCRIPT
Ultimate bearing capacity; Shallow foundation; Prediction;

32 Evolutionary computation; Linear genetic programming.

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34

35

36

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37 1. Introduction

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38 Foundations are commonly used as the lowest parts of the civil engineering structures to

39 transmit the applied loads to the underlying soil or rock. According to the properties of the rock

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40 mass and its beneath layer, the failure of rocks under applied loads may occur through several

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41 mechanisms (Sowers, 1979). Comprehensive descriptions about these failure mechanisms are
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42 provided in Canadian Foundation Engineering Manual and The National Cooperative Highway

43 Research Program (NCHRP) reports (Becker, 1996; Paikowsky et al., 2004, 2010; Canadian
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44 Geotechnical Society, 2006). It is well-known that the bearing capacity failure of shallow

45 foundations on jointed rock masses depends on the ratio of space between joints (S) to
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46 foundation width (B), joint condition, rock type, and the condition of the underlying layer of
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47 rock mass (Bishoni, 1968; Swoer, 1979). The most widely used approaches to determine the

48 bearing capacity of foundations on rocks can be classified into three groups: (1) analytical
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49 methods, (2) semi-empirical methods, and (3) in-situ and full-scaled testing methods. The
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50 analytical and semi-empirical methods are widely used for the bearing capacity prediction,
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51 particularly in the pre-design phases. The analytical methods such as finite element and limit

52 equilibrium methods relate the bearing capacity to the footing geometry and rock properties

53 (Terzaghi, 1943; Bishoni, 1968; Sowers, 1979; Goodman, 1989). The general forms of the

54 analytical models are given in Table 1. The semi-empirical methods often propose a correlation

55 between the bearing capacity and rock mass properties based on the empirical observations and

56 experimental test results (Hoek and Brown 1980, 1988; Bowles 1988; Carter and Kulhawy,

57 1988). Some of the main equations obtained by the empirical approaches are summarized in

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58 Table 2. ACCEPTED MANUSCRIPT

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61 Generally, the models obtained by the analytical, finite element and empirical approaches have

62 advantages and disadvantages (Jiao et al., 2012; Chen et al., 2013). For the case of bearing

63 capacity of a shallow foundation on a jointed rock mass, parameters such as the ratio of joint

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64 spacing to foundation breadth or loading width, as well as rock mass qualities such as joint

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65 conditions (open or closed), rock type and rock mass strength are influencing (Swoer, 1979;

66 Paikowsky, 2010). As represented in Table 1, the analytical methods only include the physical

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67 and mechanical properties of rock mass and geometry of foundation. Thus, they do not take

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68 into account the important role of the rock type and its qualitative mass parameters such as
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69 rock quality designation (RQD), rock mass rating (RMR), and geological strength index (GSI).

70 On the other hand, the empirical methods often relate the bearing capacity to qualitative and
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71 rock mass classification parameters and do not account for the geometry of the foundations or

72 space between joints (Table 2). The drawbacks of the existing analytical and empirical
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73 methods imply the necessity of developing new models correlating the bearing capacity factor
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74 to both quantitative and qualitative parameters.

75 Computational intelligence (CI) techniques are considered as alternatives to traditional

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76 methods for tackling real world problems. They automatically learn from data to determine the
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77 structure of a prediction model. Artificial neural network (ANN), fuzzy inference system (FIS),
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78 adaptive neuro-fuzzy system (ANFIS), and support vector machines (SVM) are well-known

79 branches of CI. These techniques have been successfully employed to solve problems in

80 engineering field (e.g., Das and Basudhar, 2006; Gullu and Ercelebi, 2007; Das and Basudhar,

81 2008; Gullu and Ercelebi, 2008; Zorlu et al., 2008; Cabalar and Cevik, 2009a,b; Sivapullaiah et

82 al., 2009; Yaghouby et al., 2009; Al-Anazi and Gates, 2010; Kulatilake et al., 2010; Yaghouby

83 et al., 2010a,b, 2012; Gullu 2012, 2013). Besides, these techniques have been used to predict

84 the bearing capacity of shallow foundations resting on soil layers (Soleimanbeigi and Hataf

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 85 2005; Padmini et al. 2008; Kuo etACCEPTED MANUSCRIPT
al. 2009; Kalinli et al. 2011). Despite the good performance

86 of ANNs, FIS, ANFIS, SVM and many of the other CI methods, they are considered black-box

87 models. That is, they are not capable of generating practical prediction equations. In order to

88 cope with the limitations of the existing methods, a robust CI approach, namely genetic

89 programming (GP) has been introduced (Koza, 1992). GP is an evolutionary computational

90 approach. It uses the principle of Darwinian natural selection to generate computer programs

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91 for solving a problem. GP has several advantages over the conventional and other similar

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92 techniques. A notable feature of GP and its variants is that they can produce prediction

93 equations without a need to pre-define the form of the existing relationship (Çanakcı et al.

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94 2009; Guven and Azamathulla, 2009; Gandomi et al., 2010; Alavi et al., 2011; Alavi and

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95 Gandomi, 2011; Gandomi et al., 2011a; Azamathulla and Zahiri, 2012). This technique has
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96 been shown to be a powerful tool for the prediction of the bearing capacity of shallow

97 foundations on soils (Adarsh et al. 2012; Shahnazari and Tutunchian, 2012; Tsai et al. 2012;
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98 Pan and Tsai, 2013).

99 However, application of GP and other CI techniques to the modeling of the bearing capacity of
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100 shallow foundations resting on rock masses is conspicuous by its absence. This paper proposes
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101 a novel subset of GP, namely linear genetic programming (LGP) to derive precise predictive

102 equations for the ultimate bearing capacity of shallow foundation resting in/on jointed (non-
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103 fractured) rock. A comprehensive and reliable set of data including 102 previously published
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104 rock socket, centrifuge rock socket, plate load and large-scaled footing load test results is
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105 collected to develop the models. The robustness of the proposed models is verified through

106 different validation phases.

107

108

109 2. Evolutionary Computation

110 Evolutionary computation (EC) is a subdivision of CI inspired by the natural evolution. Some

111 of the subsets of EC are evolutionary strategies (ES) and evolutionary programming (EP).

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112 These techniques are collectivelyACCEPTED MANUSCRIPT
known as evolutionary algorithms (EAs). Genetic algorithms

113 (GAs) (Holland, 1975) has been shown to be a suitably robust branch of EAs for dealing with a

114 wide variety of complex civil engineering problems (Simpson and Priest, 1993; Kalantary et al.

115 2009; Chang et al. 2011; Hung et al. 2012; Liu et al. 2013). GP is a specialization of GA where

116 the encoded solutions (individuals) are computer programs rather than binary strings (Banzhaf

117 et al., 1998). In GP, inputs and corresponding output data samples are known and the main

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118 goal is to generate predictive models relating them (Fig. 1) (Bramier and Banzhaf, 2001, 2007;

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119 Weise, 2009).

120

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121 LGP is a new subset of GP in which the programs are evolved in an imperative language (such

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122 as C/C++) (Brameier and Banzhaf, 2001, 2007). LGP has a linear structure similar to the DNA
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123 molecule in biological genomes. Fig. 2 represents a comparison of different representation of

124 the GP program structure. As shown in this figure, in classical tree-based GP, the data flow is
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125 more rigidly determined by the graph structure of the program (Brameier and Banzhaf, 2001;

126 Schmidt and Lipson, 2008; Gandomi et al., 2010; Gandomi et al., 2011b).
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127
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128 Here are the steps which the LGP system follows for a single run (Brameier and Banzhaf,

129 2007; Gandomi et al., 2010):

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130 I. Initializing a population of randomly generated programs and calculating their fitness
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131 values.
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132 II. Running a Tournament. In this step four programs are selected from the population

133 randomly. They are compared based on their fitness. Two programs are then picked as

134 the winners and two as the losers.

135 III. Transforming the winner programs. After that, two winner programs are copied and

136 transformed probabilistically into two new programs via crossover and mutation

137 operators.

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138 IV. ACCEPTED
Replacing the loser programs MANUSCRIPT
in the tournament with the transformed winner programs.

139 The winners of the tournament remain unchanged.

140 V. Repeating steps two through four until termination or convergence conditions are

141 satisfied.

142 Crossover occurs between instruction blocks. During this process, a segment of random

143 position and arbitrary length is selected in each of the two parents and exchanged. If one of the

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144 two children would exceed the maximum length, crossover is aborted and restarted with

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145 exchanging equally sized segments (Brameier and Banzhaf, 2001; Gandomi et al., 2010). The

146 mutation operation occurs on a single instruction. Two commonly used types of standard LGP

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147 mutations are micro and macro mutation. The micro mutation changes an operand or an

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148 operator of an instruction. The macro mutation operation inserts or deletes a random
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149 instruction (Brameier and Banzhaf, 2001; Gandomi et al., 2011b).

150 It is well-known that the LGP system can run several orders of magnitude faster than
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151 comparable interpreting systems. The enhanced speed of the linear variants of LGP permits

152 conducting many runs in realistic timeframes (Oltean and Grosan, 2003; Francone and
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153 Deschaine, 2004; Gandomi et al., 2010; Gandomi et al., 2011b).

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154

155 3. Numerical Simulation of Bearing Capacity

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156 In order to reach reliable estimations of the bearing capacity of shallow foundations on rock
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157 mass, the impact of several parameters should be incorporated into the model development.
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158 The general forms of the existing prediction equations, represented in Tables 1 and 2, indicate

159 that the ultimate bearing capacity of shallow foundations on rock mass mainly depends on the

160 foundation width and properties of the rock beneath it. The present study takes into account the

161 effects of both quantitative and qualitative parameters to predict the bearing capacity. Referring

162 to the form of the existing models, two prediction models (LGP 1 and LGP 2) are developed

163 using the LGP technique. Consequently, the proposed models for the prediction of the ultimate

164 bearing capacity (qult) are considered to be the functions of the following parameters:

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S 
165 qult, LGP 1 = f  RMR, qu , ,φ  (1)
 B 

 S 
166 qult, LGP 2 = f  m, s, qu , ,φ  (2)
 B 

167 where,

168 RMR: Rock mass rating (rock mass classification),

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169 m: Material constant in the Hoek and Brown failure criterion,

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170 s: Material constant in the Hoek and Brown failure criterion,

171 qu (ksf): Unconfined compressive strength of rock,

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172 S/B: Ratio of joint spacing to foundation width (equivalent diameter),

173 φ (o): Angle of internal friction for the rock mass.

174
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175 3.1. Experimental Database
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176 A comprehensive database including 102 elaborate experimental data from different studies is

177 gathered to develop the LGP-based models (Ward and Burland, 1968; Burland and Lord, 1970;
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178 Lake and Simons, 1970; Nitta et al., 1974; Webb, 1976; Wilson, 1976; Mallard, 1977; Goek
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179 and Hustad, 1979; Pells and Turner, 1979, 1980; Spanovich and Garvin, 1979; Thorne, 1980;

180 Williams, 1980; Jubenville and Hepworth, 1981; Glos and Briggs, 1983; Baker, 1985;
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181 Hummert and Cooling, 1988; Radhakrishna and Leung, 1989; Leung and Ko, 1993; Maleki
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182 and Hollberg, 1995; Carruba, 1997; Lord, 1997; Abu-Hejleh and Attwooll, 2005; McVay et al.,
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183 2006). The database contains the results of 49 rock socket tests (6 centrifuge rock socket tests),

184 40 plate load tests and 13 load tests on scaled footings. The database includes the results of

185 experiments on circle and square footings of different sizes tested on various types of masses

186 such as sandstone, claystone, shale, chalk, and basalt. The qult values of rock mass is initially

187 obtained or interpreted from load-displacement curves proposed by Hirany and Kulhawy

188 (1988). Different parts of the employed database have been used by other researchers to

189 develop prediction models for qult (AASHTO, 2007; Paikowsky et al., 2010). The descriptive

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190 ACCEPTED
statistics of the experimental data are given MANUSCRIPT
in Table 3. Fig. 3 presents the frequency

191 histograms of the parameters used for the model development.

192

193

194 3.2. Data Classification

195 In order to avoid overfitting, the available data sets are randomly classified into three subsets:

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196 (1) training (learning), (2) validation (check), and (3) test subsets. The training set is used to fit

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197 the models and the validation set is used to estimate the prediction error for model selection.

198 Finally, the test set is employed for the evaluation of the generalization ability of the final

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199 chosen model. The training, validation and test data are usually taken as 50–70%, 15–25% and

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200 15–25% of all data, respectively (Shahin et al., 2005; Alavi et al. 2011). In the present study,
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201 80% of the data sets are taken for the training and validation processes (61 data vectors for the

202 training process and 21 data sets as the validation data). The remaining 20% of the data sets are
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203 used for the testing of the obtained models.

204
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205 4. Development of LGP-Based Models

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206 Several runs are performed with different combination of the input parameters to obtain the

207 best models for the prediction of qult. The LGP parameters are changed for each run. The
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208 parameters are selected based on both some previously suggested values (Francone, 1998-
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209 2004; Baykasoglu et al., 2008; Alavi and Gandomi, 2011; Alavi et al., 2011) and making
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210 several preliminary runs to check the overall performance of the algorithm. The modeling

211 process is controlled via evolutionary parameters such as population size, probability of

212 crossover, probability of mutation and selecting arithmetic operators and mathematical

213 functions. The success of the LGP algorithm usually depends on increasing the initial and

214 maximum program size parameters. Thus, three optimal population sizes of 500, 1000 and

215 2000 are used for the prediction. Two levels are considered for each probability of crossover

216 and mutation (0.5 and 0.95). During the process, the complexity of evolved functions

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increases. Hence, to prevent decreasing MANUSCRIPT
the speed of algorithms, two optimal values (64, 128)

218 are considered for the maximum program size as trade-offs between the running time and the

219 complexity of the solutions. Two values (10, 20) are set for the number of demes. It is worth

220 mentioning that demes are semi-isolated subpopulations that evolution proceeds faster in them

221 in comparison to a single population of equal size (Brameier and Banzhaf, 2007). Different

222 arithmetic operators and mathematical functions are utilized to formulate the LGP-based

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223 models. The termination criterion for each run is considered based on the number of

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224 generations that run has gone without improving. The number of generations without

225 improvement is set to 1000. There are 3 × 2 × 2 × 2 = 24 different combinations of the

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226 parameters. All of these combinations were tested and 10 replications for each combination

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227 were carried out. This makes 240 runs for each of the combinations of the predictor variables.
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228 To evaluate the fitness of the evolved programs, the average of the squared errors is used. The

229 Discipulus computer program is used to implement the LGP algorithm (Conrads et al., 2004).
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230 The parameters used to evaluate the performance of the models are shown in Table 4.

231
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232 The best LGP programs obtained at the end of the training process are given in C++ in
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233 Appendix A. These programs can be run in any C environment. The resulting code may be

234 linked to the optimizer and compiled or it may be called from the optimization routines
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235 (Deschaine, 2000). In order to facilitate the use of the derived codes via hand calculations, they
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236 are simplified and converted into functional representations by successive replacements of
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237 variables (Oltean and Grossan, 2003). The optimal LGP-based formulations of qult are as

238 follows with different parameters, namely LGP 1 (Eq. 3) and LGP 2 (Eq. 4):

239 qult, LGP 1 = 0.45(RMR + 2qu ) + 0.25

S
B
( (
0.35qu + φ + 0.5qu (0.2φ − 6)
2
)) (3)

 
S  S  S  B S 
2
 
q ult, LGP 2 = + 1 .7  
q u mq u 2 − φ +  φ  2 s + 0.25     (4)
240
B B  B  S B    
  
 

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242 Fig. 4 shows a comparison and the relative error between the measured and predicted qult

243 values by the LGP models for the entire data.

244

245 5. Results and Discussion

246 5.1. Performance Analysis and Validation

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247 Different statistical indices should be considered to evaluate the performance of a numerical

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248 correlation. Smith (1986) proposed the following criteria for judging the performance of a

249 model based on several observations:

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250 • if a model gives |R|> 0.8, a strong correlation exists and the model is suitable,

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251 In addition, the error values should be considered in all cases (Alavi et al., 2011). The
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252 performance measures for the training, validation, testing, and all data are summarized in Table

253 5. It can be observed from Fig. 4 and Table 5 that the LGP models, with R > 0.8 and low
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254 RMSE and MAE values, are able to predict the target values with an acceptable degree of

255 accuracy. As it is, the model (LGP 2, Eq. 4) developed using m, s, qu, S/B, and φ has a better
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256 performance that that derived using RMR, s, qu, S/B, and φ.
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257
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258 In addition to the performance indices described, the values of the residuals (standard error

259 between the observed and predicted values) are visualized in Fig. 5. In order to check whether
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260 the calculated R really exists between the observed and predicted data sets or not, the p-values
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261 at 5% significance level were also obtained and presented in this figure. Furthermore, this

262 figure presents a comparative study between the results obtained by proposed models and those

263 provided by the well-known models of Carter and Kulhawy (1988) and Goodman (1989). As

264 can be observed from Fig. 5, the proposed formulas notably outperform the existing models.

265 Besides, it can be seen that the p-values for the LGP models are approximately equal to 0. This

266 indicates that there is a sound correlation between the observed and predicted data sets. It is

267 worth mentioning that most of the existing models are derived based on traditional statistical
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268 ACCEPTED
analyses (e.g. regression analysis). The major MANUSCRIPT
limitation of this type of analysis is that the

269 structures of the models are designated after controlling only few equations established in

270 advance. On the other hand, the best equations generated by the LGP technique are determined

271 after controlling numerous linear and nonlinear preliminary models. For instance, the proposed

272 design equation (LGP 1) is selected among a total of 560,892,763 programs evolved and

273 evaluated by the LGP method during the conducted 240 runs.

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274

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275

276 5.2. Sensitivity Analysis

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277 As discussed before, the effect of all considered parameters (i.e., RMR, s, m, qu, S/B, and φ) on

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278 qult is well understood. Herein, a sensitivity analysis is conducted to provide a more in-depth
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279 understanding of the contribution of these important parameters to the prediction of qult. For the

280 sensitivity analysis, the frequency values of the input parameters are obtained. A frequency
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281 value equal to 100% for an input indicates that this input variable has been appeared in 100 %

282 of the best thirty programs evolved by LGP (Francone, 1998–2004; Alavi et al., 2011;
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283 Gandomi et al., 2011). Herein, the average and maximum impact values are also determined.
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284 The average and maximum impact values, respectively, show the average and the maximum
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285 effect of removing all instances of that input from the thirty best programs of the project. The

286 greater the value, the more impact removal had. The sensitivity analysis results are summarized
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287 in Fig. 6. As expected (Paikowsky et al., 2004, 2010), Fig. 6 indicates that both LGP-based
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288 models are more sensitive to qu and S/B compared to other variables. The good agreement

289 between of the results of the LGP sensitivity analysis and those reported by various researchers

290 (Carter and Kulhawy 1988; Goodman, 1989; Paikowsky et al., 2004, 2010) guarantees the

291 robustness and applicability of proposed models.

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293

294 6. Conclusion

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295 ACCEPTED
This paper aimed at developing new MANUSCRIPT
nonlinear LGP-based models for the estimation of the qult

296 of shallow foundations on non-fractured rock masses. A comprehensive database collected

297 from the literature is used for the model development. The optimal LGP-based models are

298 selected after several assessment procedures. The validation of the models is verified with

299 different criteria. The parametric and sensitivity analyses are conducted to evaluate the

300 robustness of the models. The results indicate that the proposed models provide precise

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301 estimations of qult. The R values of LGP 1 model on the training, validation and testing data are

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302 equal to 0.95, 0.96 and 0.99, respectively. The corresponding values for LGP 2 model areequal

303 to 0.97, 0.96 and 0.98, respectively. Moreover, the p-values at 5% significance level are

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304 approximately equal to 0 for both of the models. Considering the better performance of the

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305 second model (LGP 2, Eq. 4), m seems to be a more efficient parameter than RMR for the
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306 prediction of qult. Both of the derived models have a notably better performance than the

307 existing traditional models. In addition, the LGP models simultaneously incorporate the effect
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308 of both the quantitative and qualitative parameters. Unlike other intelligent methods such as

309 ANN, FIS and ANFIS, LGP method provides simplified equations that can be readily used for
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310 the design purposed via hand calculating. Furthermore, the results of the LGP analysis provide
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311 transparent programs, in this case C++ codes, for further use in the bearing capacity prediction,

312 as well as optimization purposes.

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313
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314 Appendix A.
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315 A.1. The optimum LGP program for the prediction of qult (LGP1)

316 The following LGP program can be run in the Discipulus interactive evaluator mode or can be

317 compiled in C++ environment. (Note: v[0], ..., v[3] respectively represent RMR, qu, S/B, and φ.

318 f[0] holds the output.)

319 float DiscipulusCFunction(float v[])

320 {long double f[8];

321 long double tmp = 0;

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322 intcflag = 0; ACCEPTED MANUSCRIPT

323 f[0]=f[1]=f[2]=f[3]=f[4]=f[5]=f[6]=f[7]=0;

324 L0: f[0]+=0.75f;

325 L1: f[0]*=f[0];

326 L2: f[0]*=f[0];

327 L3: f[0]*=f[0];

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328 L4: f[0]*=v[3];

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329 L5: f[0]-=1.5f;

330 L6: f[0]-=1.5f;

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331 L7: f[0]+=f[0];

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332 L8: f[0]*=f[0]; AN
333 L9: f[0]*=v[1];

334 L10: f[0]*=1.5f;

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335 L11: f[0]+=v[1];

336 L12: f[0]*=0.3300000131130219f;

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337 L13: f[0]+=v[3];

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338 L14: f[0]*=v[2];

339 L15: f[0]/=2f;

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340 L16: f[0]+=v[0];

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341 L17: f[0]+=v[1];

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342 L18: f[0]+=v[1];

343 L19: f[0]*=0.6700000166893005f;

344 L20: f[0]*=0.6700000166893005f;

345 L21:

346 if (!_finite(f[0])) f[0]=0;

347 return f[0];}

348

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A.2. The optimum LGP program MANUSCRIPT
for the prediction of qult (LGP2)

350 Note: v[0], ..., v[4] respectively represent qu, m, s, S/B, and φ. f[0] holds the output.

351

352 float DiscipulusCFunction(float v[])

353 {long double f[8];

long double tmp = 0;

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354

355 intcflag = 0;

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356 f[0]=f[1]=f[2]=f[3]=f[4]=f[5]=f[6]=f[7]=0;

357 L0: f[0]+=v[2];

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358 L1: f[0]*=v[3];

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359 L2: f[0]+=0.6700000166893005f; AN
360 L3: f[0]+=0.5f;

361 L4: f[0]+=f[0];

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362 L5: f[0]*=f[0];

363 L6: f[0]/=v[3];

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364 L7: f[0]*=v[4];

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365 L8: f[0]+=v[3];

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366 L9: f[0]-=v[4];

367 L10:f[0]+=v[3];
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368 L11:f[0]*=v[1];
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369 L12:f[0]*=v[0];

370 L13:f[0]+=f[0];

371 L14:f[0]=sqrt(f[0]);

372 L15:f[0]*=v[3];

373 L16:f[0]*=v[0];

374 L17:f[0]+=f[0];

375 L18:f[0]=sqrt(f[0]);

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376 L19:f[0]+=v[3]; ACCEPTED MANUSCRIPT

377 L20:

378 if (!_finite(f[0])) f[0]=0;

379 return f[0];}

380

381 References

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382 AASHTO 2007 LRFD Bridge Design Specifications. 4th ed., AASHTO, Washington, DC.

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614 Yaghouby, F., Ayatollahi, A., ACCEPTED MANUSCRIPT
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620 LIST OF FIGURES
621

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622 Figure 1. Conceptual scheme of input-process-output (IPO) in GP.
623 Figure 2. A comparison of a program structure evolved by (a) tree-based, (b) graph-based GP,

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624 and (c) linear GP for the expression of y=f(v[i])=(v[1]+2)2/v[2].
625 Figure 3. Frequency histograms of the parameters.

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627 LGP models.
628 Figure 5. Residual plots of the standard error between observed and predicted qult values for
629 different models.
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651 LIST OF TABLES
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Table 1. General forms of equations obtained by the analytical methods.

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654 Table 2. General forms of equations obtained by the empirical methods.

655 Table 3. Descriptive statistics of the parameters used to develop the LGP-based models.

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656 Table 4. Statistical criteria used for the evaluation of models.
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657 Table 5. Performance measures for the LGP-based models based on the data classification.
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Table 1. General forms of equations made by the analytical methods.

Reference Equation (Analytical method) Factor

Nc = 2Nφ 0.5
( N φ +1 )

Terzaghi φ
qult = cN c + 0.5 γ B N γ + γ DN q N γ = N φ 0.5 ( N φ − 1 ) N φ = tan 2 ( 45 + )
(1943) 2

N q = N φ2

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For circular
footings : 2N φ S  1 
N = (co t φ )( ) 1- 
B  
cr
Bishoni qult = α JcN cr
α=1 N φ +1 Nφ 
(1968) For square -N φ (c o tφ )+2 N φ

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footings :
α = 0.85
Sower φ
q ult = 2 c tan( 45 + ) - -

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(1979) 2
For fractured rocks :
qult = qu ( N φ + 1 )

For non-fractured rocks : φ

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Goodman N φ = tan 2 ( 45 + )
 ( N φ −1 ) / N φ 
(1989) 1  S  2
qult = qu  N −1  
 N φ − 1  φ  B 
  
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  

qult: bearing capacity of shallow foundation on rock;

D: depth of foundation below ground surface;
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c: the cohesion intercepts for the rock mass;

φ: angle of internal friction for the rock mass;
γ: effective unit weight of the rock mass;
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B: breadth or width of foundation;

NØ, Nc, Nq and Nγ: non-dimensional bearing capacity factors as exponential functions of φ;
Ncr: bearing capacity factor;
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S: discontinuity spacing;
S/B: ratio of joint spacing to foundation width;
qu: Unconfined compressive strength of rock.
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Table 2. General forms of equations made by the empirical methods.

Equation (Empirical Factor

Reference
Method)
Bowles (1988) qult = q r × ( RQD ) 2

Hoek and Brown (1980, 1988) σ1 = σ3 + ( mqc σ3 + sqc 2 ) 0.5

GSI − 100 GSI − 100
Carter and Kulhawy (1988) qult = qu ( m + s ) m = m i exp( ) s = exp( )

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RQD: rock quality designation (rock mass classification);

qr: ultimate strength of rock determined by uniaxial compression test;

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ó1: major principal stress (compressive stresses are taken as positive);
ó3: minor principal stress;

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GSI: geological strength index (rock mass classification);
m and s: material constants in the Hoek and Brown failure criterion;
qc: uniaxial compression strength of intact rock.

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Table 3. Descriptive statistics of parameters in database used to develop LGP-based models.

Variable

RMR m s
qu
S/B
φ qult
Statistical Index (ksf) ( o) (ksf)
Mean 62.69 1.13 0.02 90.42 5.75 30.94 210.45
Standard Deviation 24.37 1.12 0.03 170.73 7.33 4.93 268.23

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Coefficient of Variation 0.39 0.99 1.80 1.89 1.28 0.16 1.27
Sample Variance 593.76 1.26 0.00 29147.04 53.67 24.28 71948.10
Kurtosis –0.43 –0.75 0.18 17.42 4.26 0.39 11.46
Skewness –0.69 0.86 1.47 3.81 2.11 0.12 2.96

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Minimum 15.00 0.03 0.000003 5.00 0.35 20.00 5.22
Maximum 100.00 3.43 0.08 1148.70 36.69 45.00 1578.95

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Table 4. Statistical criteria used for the evaluation of models.

Performance index Mathematical Definition

∑n  h − h  t − t 
Correlation coefficient (R) R= i = 1  i i  i i 
2 2
∑ n  h − h  ∑ n  t − t 
i = 1 i i  i = 1 i i 

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2
∑ in = 1(hi - t i )
Root mean square error (RMSE) RMSE =
n

1 n 

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MAE =  ∑ h − t 
Mean absolute error (MAE)  n i = 1 i i 

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hi : The actual outputs for the ith output
ti : The calculated outputs for the ith output
n: The number of samples.

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Table 5. Values of statistical criteria for the LGP-based models based on data classification.

Data
Statistical
Model All Training Validation Testing
Index
R 0.95 0.95 0.96 0.99
LGP 1 RMSE 113.41 122.56 76.60 115.14
MAE 61.61 70.97 42.10 53.00
R 0.96 0.97 0.96 0.98

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LGP 2 RMSE 74.64 56.81 119.60 63.72
MAE 44.32 35.89 68.64 45.62

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HIGHLIGHTS
• Developing new prediction models for bearing capacity of foundations on rock

• Introducing a novel evolutionary approach for numerical modeling

• Verifying the models through several validation phases

• Obtaining significantly better results than the traditional models

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