PLATE 1 Analyses of such ice cores reveal features of the climate when the ice was

deposited. In this photo, Geoff Hargreaves, curator, stores a sample of GISP2 deep
ice core from central Greenland in the main archive of the National Ice Core Labo-
ratory (a joint effort of the National Science Foundation and the United States Geo-
logical Survey with the University of New Hampshire as academic partner, at the
Denver Federal Center).

18
Northern (GISP2) and Southern (Byrd) δ O
33

35

37
δ18O (per mil)

39

41

43
10000 30000 50000 70000 90000
GISP2 Age (years before present)

PLATE 2 Temperature changes are reflected in changes in the oxygen-isotopic

(δ18O) ratios, with low δ18O indicating high temperature. Records of δ18O from ice
cores in central Greenland (GISP2) and West Antarctica (Byrd Station) are shown,
synchronized to the GISP2 time scale by Blunier and Brook (2001). These records
show that both hemispheres experienced an ice age at similar time, that millennial
oscillations superimposed on the ice-age cycle were especially large during the slide
into and climb out of the ice age, that millennial oscillations were of larger ampli-
tude in the north than in the south, and that at many times (e.g., around 70,000
years ago) antiphase behavior is exhibited between north and south in these
millennial oscillations. Note that in this figure, time increases toward the left.

1
2 COLOR PLATES

PLATE 3 The top photo is a false-color scanning electron micrograph of assorted

pollen grains showing how the size, shape, and surface characteristics differ from
one species to another. By counting the number of species and their abundance in
sediments and peat deposits (called “palynology”), it is possible to analyze how
ecosystems and climate have varied over time. The bottom photo shows pollen from
Tilia (Linden or Basswood), which is a temperate deciduous species.
COLOR PLATES 3

Great ocean conveyor belt

Heat release
to atmosphere

Pacific
Atlantic
Ocean
Ocean

Warm surface
current

Cold saline
bottom current
Indian
Ocean

Heat release
to atmosphere

PLATE 4a The great ocean conveyor belt. This is a schematic generally summariz-
ing some important features of the world’s ocean circulation. Warm, low-salinity
water, flows north along the surface of the Atlantic, becoming saltier (red arrows).
Cooling of this to saltier water in the North Atlantic produces high enough densities
for the water to sink and flow southward in the deep ocean and into other ocean
basins (blue arrows) (after Broecker, 1995).
4 COLOR PLATES

Global ocean circulation, based on Ganachaud and Wunsch (2000)

Shallow
15
50˚N Deep
14
Bottom
3
16 12 Uncertainty: 15-25% 1.5
1
25˚N
0.5
13 4 2.5 5.5
Atlantic
0˚
19 7
10 11
16
16 6 3 8
25˚S
9

23 27
50˚S Southern Ocean
157
140
21 8

60˚W 0˚ 60˚W 120˚W 180˚W 120˚W

PLATE 4b A slightly more complex representation of the global ocean circulation

than in Plate 4a, simplified from Ganachaud and Wunsch (2000), as estimated from
modern oceanographic data. The figure shows the integrated flow across the lati-
tudes where observations were taken during the World Ocean Circulation Experi-
ment (WOCE) in the 1990s. The red arrows designate near-surface flow (typically
warm; technically, water density less than 1027.72 kg m-3), blue and green arrows
are deep and bottom flows, respectively. Units are Sverdrups (million cubic meters
per second); for comparison, the Gulf Stream transports around 31 Sverdrups north-
ward through the Florida Strait. Notice the vigorous sinking in the North Atlantic
and the near-complete absence of sinking in the North Pacific.
COLOR PLATES 5

January

60

30
Latitude

-30

-60

-180 -120 -60 0 60 120 180

Longitude

-20 -15 -10 -5 0 5 10 15 20

July Surface Temperature Anomaly

60

30
Latitude

-30

-60

-180 -120 -60 0 60 120 180

Longitude

-20 -15 -10 -5 0 5 10 15 20

Surface Temperature Anomaly

PLATE 5 January and July surface air temperature anomalies in degrees Celsius
averaged over the years 1970-1980. The “anomaly” is defined as the deviation of
air temperature from the average air temperature along a latitude circle passing
through the point in question. Removing the mean makes it easier to see East-West
variations in temperature without being distracted by the much larger North-South
variations.
6 COLOR PLATES

PLATE 6 Paths along the solution curves of two versions of Stommel’s box model
showing the rate of the ocean overturning when the freshwater forcing flux H is
increased and then decreased. Only in the case of weak diffusion (orange) does the
model respond with an abrupt change, once a threshold in H is crossed. In the case
of strong diffusion (green), at any time, there is a unique equilibrium.

PLATE 7 Changes in Atlantic circulation in different models forced by prescribed

increases in atmospheric CO2. Most models show a reduction of the THC in re-
sponse to increasing greenhouse gas forcing (Intergovernmental Panel on Climate
Change, 2001b).
COLOR PLATES 7

PLATE 8 During the last ice age, sea levels were approximately 100 m lower than
present because more water was contained in ice sheets, and thus not available to
the oceans. The dark blue shading around Florida and Southeast Asia demarcates
areas that, while 20,000 years ago were dry land, are now under water. Sea levels
would rise and flood coastal regions, to the approximate levels shown in the figure
(dark green area), if the West Antarctic ice sheet or much of the Greenland ice sheet
were to melt. The black line shows the present coast. SOURCE: Burroughs, 1999.
8 COLOR PLATES

PLATE 9 Composites of fire-scar chronologies for 55 forest stands in Arizona, New

Mexico, and northern Sonora, Mexico from the years 1600 to 2000, as reconstructed
from tree-ring analyses of fire-scarred trees. The red and yellow vertical tick marks
indicate the fire dates recorded by the fire-scarred trees sampled in each stand. The
red tick marks represent regional fire years that were recorded by fire scarred trees
in 10 or more of the sampled stands. Many of these regional fire years occurred
during droughts that were probably associated with La Niña events. Note the very
striking decrease in sites recording fires more recently than circa 1890, coinciding
with the introduction of large numbers of livestock and organized suppression of
fires by government agencies (Swetnam et al., 1999). Major changes in anthropo-
genic land use affect the frequency of fires associated with droughts.