Coastal Ecosystems Response to

Climate Change and Human Impact

Asia-Pacific Region
in the Asia-Pacific
(CERCCHI Project)

Prof. Kazuo Nadaoka

Department of
Department of Mechanical
Mechanical and
and Environmental
Environmental Informatics
Informatics
Graduate School of Information Science and Engineering
Tokyo Institute
Tokyo Institute of
of Technology
Technology
 presentation…
In this presentation…
z Introduction
z Threats to the coastal ecosystem
z
z State of the coastal ecosystems & environment
in East Asia and the Pacific
z Integrated Coastal Zone Management
z The CERCCHI Project
z
Importance of the Coastal Zone
z World's most important and intensely used of
all areas settled by humans.
„ percent of
An estimated 50 to 70 percent of the
the world's
world's
population lives in coastal zones.
population
z Given the definition of ± 200 meters of the sea level",
the coastal domain
„ 18% of
occupies 18% of the
the surface
surface of the globe;
„ is where abut 25% of global primary productivity occurs;
„ 90% of
supplies approximately 90% of world
world fish
fish catch;
catch
„ 90% of the global
is where 90% global sedimentary
sedimentary mineralization
mineralization occurs;
„ accounts for 75 to 90% of the global sink of suspended river
load and its associated elements or pollutants;
load
80% of the global
„ accounts for 80% global organic
organic matter
matter burial;
burial
„ accounts for over 50% of present day global carbonate
deposition.
Threats to Coastal Ecosystems
Mangrove deforestation Seagrass decline
Erosion & siltation due to
climate change and
pollution

Over -fishing
Over-fishing
Reef exploitation threatens
Gleaning Natural grazing threatens64%
64%
of
ofthe
thereefs,
reefs,
destructive
destructivefishing,
fishing,
56%,
56%,coastal
coastal
development,
development,25% 25%
Eutrophication
Natural calamities &&agriculture
agriculture&&
deforestation,
deforestation,20%
20%

‘Predator
‘Predatorplagues
plagueslike
likecrown -of-thorns starfish
crown-of-thorns starfish(COTS)
(COTS)maymaybebeinitiated
initiatedand
andcertainly
certainly
exacerbated by either over -fishing of key starfish predators;
exacerbated by either over-fishing of key starfishpredators and/or increases
predators; and/or increases in in
nutrient
nutrient runoff from the land favors the planktonic stagesofofthe
runoff from the land favors the planktonic stages thestarfish.’
starfish.’(Goldberg
(Goldberg
and Wilkinson, 2004)
and Wilkinson, 2004)
 Threats to Coastal Ecosystems
Occurrence & severity of coral bleaching
(Source: www.reefbase.org)
Legend:
No bleaching
Severity unknown
Low bleaching
Medium
High

Coral Bleaching
AAgrowing
growingbody bodyof
of
evidence
evidencelinks
linkssevere
severecoral
coral
bleaching
bleachingand andmortality
mortalitytoto
increasing
increasingratesratesofofglobal
global
climate
climatechange
changeattributed
attributed
to
torising
risinglevels
levelsofof Global warming &
anthropogenic
anthropogenicgreenhouse
greenhouse Climate change
emissions
emissions(Goldberg
(Goldbergand and
Wilkinson,
Wilkinson,2004).
2004).
Climate change effects on seagrass
Se
l ir se Increased CO2
aw
ate
e
ev e ha r rw
l arin bit epro
e a m
ub ion
at
ex duct arm
S s pa ion
eros
photo- reduced ns ion
ing
w
ne t synthesis calcification
in
c
bit
a res reas
ha pir ed
ati
on

Forecasted effects
of climate change on seagrass
(Modified from Duarte 2002 by Fortes)
Coastal Ecosystems in East Asia &
the Pacific
World’s center of biodiversity

…globally significant for their biodiversity e.g.

…globally
30% of the world’s
world’s coral reefs (Wilkinson
world’s mangroves
2002), 33% of the world’s mangroves
(Spalding et al. 1997), at least 10% of the
world’s seagrasses
world’s seagrasses (Green
(Green & & Short
Short 2003)
2003) ..
Present State of the Coastal Ecosystem
z Coastal ecosystems are severely
z Level of Overall
damaged: Anthropogenic Impacts
„ over 80% of the reefs are at great risk; On Coral Reefs
„ mangroves
„ mangroves have
have lost
lost 70%
70% of
of their
their cover
cover High
in the last 70 years; Medium
„ seagrass
„ seagrass bed
bed loss
loss ranges
ranges from 20-60% in
from 20-60% in Low
the last 50 years None
Level of Overall Threat
to Coral Reefs
High
Medium
Low
Future??
z Unless managed, the reefs will
z
collapse within 20 years, all
mangroves will be lost by 2030, &
seagrass beds will follow suit, so
will the resources & revenues
derived from them (PEMSEA 2003)
What must be done to avoid such a bleak future?
Integrated Coastal gEcosystem Management
ak in En
n-m h) int able
i oac
o err u
is ela nde
d ec ppr tio rsta
a n
a nd ary sy ship ndin
ste g
nce iplin ms s acr of
s c i e d is c os
s
i nk ulti
L (m

Focus on water quality per se

Co
ns
id
e
Integrated Coastal Ecosystem Management
in r c
m om
an p
ag lex Focus on conservation
re
so ing int
u r co er a
ce as c
s ta tion
l s
The CERCCHI Project
z Coastal Zone Management Scope
Î must
Î must consider
consider complex
complex z Spatial and temporal aspects
interactions between
interactions between social,
social, of change
of change inin natural
natural and
and
economic, environmental
economic, environmental human systems
human systems in in the
the
systems tropical zone
tropical zone
Î must be responsive to z Measurement
z Measurement of of dynamic
dynamic
local needs and in parameters: CNP fluxes,
parameters:
agreement with
agreement with global
global efforts
efforts sedimentation, sediment
z Present
z Present investigative
investigative efforts
efforts chemistry, tide
chemistry, tide level
level && wave
wave
Î narrow
Î narrow with
with results
results action
action
incompatible for
incompatible for z Remote
z Remote sensing
sensing datadata
understanding of
understanding of analysis as
analysis as aa rapid,
rapid,
interrelationships across comparable and
comparable and readily
readily
systems
systems available source of spatial
records
records
Integrated Coastal Zone Management
Underscores the need for
improved assessment,
monitoring and
modelling of pollution
and
its effects
on the coastal ecosystem

A Large Marine Ecosystems (LMES) Strategy for the Assessment and

Management of International Coastal Waters
o A global effort under way
o World Conservation Union (IUCN),
UNESCO (IOC), other UN agencies,
and the US NOAA
o To improve the long-term
sustainability of resources and
environments of the world's LMES
and linked watersheds. Five Module LME Approach
Linkages between tropical ecosystems
Climate Change
Hydrologic Systems Hydrodynamic Systems
•Rivers •Reefs
•Groundwater
•Plains
•Bays
cl Effe
•Estuaries im
??
•Mountains and Hills at cts
e
Goods and Services
ch of
an
Responses ge
s
Impact
Marine
Science
ecosystems
Terrestrial +
•Corals
ecosystems Integrated
•Mangroves
Human subsystem Manage-
•Seagrasses
•Habitation ment s
act
•Activities p
Im
Drivers
Environmental •Nutrients (C,N&P)
loads •Sediments
•Chemicals
 The Project Approach
Assistance for policy
Global Change formulation Stakeholders
Research Programs
Government (national and local)
Global Coral Reef
Logistical support Non-governmental organizations
Monitoring
Network
(NGOs)
(GCRMN) Community-based organizations
Provision of models,
training, technical assistance
Needs identification
Data and Information Assistance in monitoring work

ination and
Sharing Remote Sensing
Geographic Information Systems

s
on of program
Integrated Simulation Modelling
programs

Extraction of
tion of

lations, coord
Field techniques
tion

nal

products
global/regio
Data collec

The Project
Implementa

ing

Multidisciplinary collaboration

implementati
itor

Integrated

Policy formu
mon

watershed-coastal ecosystem
approach Improved protection
Data Collection through monitoring
and
impact assessment

Coastal Ecosystem
 Project Objectives
Produce an accurate set of multi-
date coastal resource information
particular to needs of managing
Provide an changes in the coastal zone and
understanding of the consistent to allow comparison
driving/forcing effects of Assess human
among systems in the region.
socio -economically - welfare impacts of
induced changes on changes in coastal
environmental loads to Achieve and apply resource systems in
the tropical coastal understanding of the terms of social costs
ecosystems causes and consequences and benefits
considering different
of present and future management
environmental change of strategies
tropical ecosystems in
Develop capacity building management decisions
Strengthen the network
through workshops on of, and reinforce
standardized methods of linkages among coastal
processing in -situ, remotely- scientists and managers
sensed data and environment- thru shared expertise
related socio-economic surveys and resources
 Project Implementation
Capacity-building
(joint workshops; decision support tools suited for local management)

Development of a policy-relevant prognostic model

(environmental quality indicators and optimization technique to valuate
resources and social priorities)
Assessment and analysis of changes
(changes in human and natural ecosystems considering hydrologic and
hydrodynamic processes by use of physical and ecological models)
Analysis of multi-temporal satellite images
(to detect changes in land use patterns and coastal habitats)

Collection and assessment of existing studies and relevant data

(changes in the coastal and human impacts in tropical marine ecosystems;
identify information gaps)

Data and information sharing and dissemination

(data, information and knowledge base exchange among collaborators and the
public)

Fundamentals of the Project Appoach

 Remote Sensing for Coastal Environments
Sensor
Basis of remote sensing
Path radiance

Further scattering at Scattering at edge of

for coastal environments:
atmosphere
attenuation at
atmosphere •Coral reefs
Attenuation due to
scattering and absorption
in atmosphere
•Mangrove forest
•Seagrass beds
Specular
•Plants and Sediment and reflectance
other vegetation nutrient (C, N, P
and trace metals)
•People

Further attenuation
due to scattering and
Irradiance
Mangroves absorption in water Radiance

Seagrasses

Coral reef

Development of seagrass assessment

& monitoring methodology using
remote sensing
Expected Outcomes and Outputs
z Impacts of
Impacts of changes
changes to
to coastal
coastal ecosystems
ecosystems in East Asia and
multi-temporal
processed multi-temporal
the Pacific region as depicted in processed
images
images
z Standardized in-situ data
Standardized data collection
collection protocol,
protocol uniform
uniform
methods for processing remotely-sensed data and socio-
methods
economic surveys
z integrated physical
An integrated physical and
and ecological
ecological model
model specific to
assessment of environmental changes in tropical ecosystems
z decision support
A science-based, user-driven practical decision support
system (DSS)
system (DSS) suited for management concerns in coastal
zone
z coastal scientists
A group of coastal scientists in the region proficient in
environmental change evaluation methods
z Managers trained
Managers trained in using DSS
DSS for tropical coastal
environment
z Documentation and other relevant
Documentation relevant publications
publications for
promoting provisional and actual use of the integrated model