POLL EMBARGOED UNTIL 31ST JANUARY 2019, 6 AM EST

Canada - National UltraPoll

31st January 2019
METHODOLOGY
The analysis in this report is based on results of a
survey conducted between January 12th to 18th,
2019 among a sample of 7941 adults, 18 years
of age or older, living in Canada. The survey was
conducted using automated telephone interviews
(Smart IVR). Respondents were interviewed on
both landlines and cellular phones. The survey is
intended to represent the voting population of
Canada.
The survey was conducted by Mainstreet Research
and was not sponsored by a third party.
The sampling frame was derived from both
a national telephone directory compiled by
Mainstreet Research from various commerically
available sources and random digit dialing. The
part of the survey that dialed from the directory was
conducted as a stratified dial of the ten Canadian
provinces. In the case of random digit dials,
respondents were asked the additional question
of what region of the country they resided in.
The margin of error for this poll is +/- 1.1% and is
accurate 19 times out of 20.
(full methodology appears at the end of this
report)
ABOUT MAINSTREET
With 20 years of political experience in all three
levels of government, President and CEO Quito
Maggi is a respected commentator on international
public affairs.
Differentiated by its large sample sizes, Mainstreet
Research has provided accurate snapshots of
public opinion, having predicted a majority NDP
government in Alberta, and was the only polling firm
to correctly predict a Liberal majority government
in the 2015 federal election. Mainstreet also
accurately predicted the 2018 Ontario election and
was the first to predict that a CAQ majority win in
the 2018 Quebec election. Mainstreet Research
is a member of the World Association for Public
Opinion Research and meets international and
Canadian publication standards.
CONTACT INFORMATION
In Ottawa:
Quito Maggi, President
quito@mainstreetresearch.ca
In Toronto:
Dr. Joseph Angolano, Vice President
joseph@mainstreetresearch.ca
Find us online at:
www.mainstreetresearch.ca
twitter.com/MainStResearch
facebook.com/mainstreetresearch
TRUDEAU LIBERALS HOLD A NARROW LEAD OVER SCHEER CONSERVATIVES

31 January 2019 (Ottawa, ON) – The governing Liberals have a two-point lead over the opposition
Conservatives, with Andrew Scheer’s party narrowing the gap since November.

Those are the findings from Mainstreet Research’s latest UltraPoll, a conglomeration of ten provincial polls.
The poll surveyed 7941 Canadians between January 12th and 18th 2019. The poll has a margin of error of
+/- 1.1% and is accurate 19 times out of 20.

“The Liberals maintain their lead and are still the favourites to win the election if these numbers hold until
October,” said Quito Maggi, President and CEO of Mainstreet Research. “The Conservative vote remains
inefficient thanks to their very large leads in the Prairies.”

Among decided and leaning voters, the Liberals led by Justin Trudeau have 37.2% support (-2.1% since our
last poll in November), while the Conservatives led by Andrew Scheer have 35.1% (+0.5%). The NDP led by
Jagmeet Singh have 11.5% support (+0.7%), while the Greens with Elizabeth May at the helm have 7.2%
(+0.4%). The Bloc Quebecois have 3.2% (-0.2%) overall, but have 13.5% in Quebec. The People’s Party led by
Maxime Bernier have 4.2% (+0.4 %).

“The one major change since November is that the Liberals have surrendered the lead in BC to the
Conservatives,” added Maggi. “This is due to an uptick in support for the NDP in that province.”

The Conservatives have a two point lead in British Columbia, while the Liberals have large leads in Quebec
and the Atlantic provinces. The Liberals lead in Ontario is now six points, down from an eleven point lead in
November.

The poll also asked whether Canadians were optimistic or pessimistic about their personal finances and
the Canadian economy in general. The survey found that 55.3% of respondents were optimistic about the
Canadian economy (-3.7% from November), with 17% being very optimistic (-3.3%).

Canadians remain similarly optimistic about their personal finances, but again less optimistic than they were
in November. 61.2% were optimistic for the coming year (-1.4%), with nearly 23% being very optimistic (-2%).

“If voters are feeling good about the economy, then they will likely vote for the governing party,” concluded
Maggi. “It is no accident to see the Liberals take a small dip as Canadians’ economic optimism has fallen
slightly.”

-30-

For additional information or to arrange an interview, contact:

Joseph Angolano, 647-894-1552 - joseph@mainstreetresearch.ca
If the federal election were held today, which party would you vote
All Voters
for?

12.6%

1.2%
3.4%
33.1%

6%

2.8%
All Voters

9.5%

All Voters
Decided and Leaning Voters
31.3%

11%
1.5%
4.2%
Liberals 1.2%Conservatives New Democratic Party Bloc Quebecois
3.5% 7.2%
Greens People's Party Another Party Undecided

3.2% 34.9%
5.7%

37.2%
3%
11.5%
All Voters

9.1%
Decided and Leaning Voters

31.6%

35.1%

Liberals Conservatives New Democratic Party Bloc Quebecois

LiberalsGreensConservatives
People's PartyNew Democratic
Another Party
Party Undecided
Bloc Quebecois

Greens People's Party Another Party

If the federal election were held today, which party would you
vote for?
(regional breakouts)

37.2%
35.1%
11.5%
3.2%
All

7.2%
4.2%
1.5%

32.5%
34.7%
British Columbia

16.5%

11.6%
3.1%
1.5%

20%
60.1%
7.6%
Alberta

5.7%
5.9%
0.7%

24.4%
49.5%
13.3%
Prairies

6.5%
4.8%
1.6%

41.6%
36.0%
12.8%
Ontario

5.0%
3.5%
1.0%

42.4%
19.1%
8.9%
Quebec

13.5%
8.4%
5.0%
2.7%

45.5%
31.2%
Atlantic Canada

8.9%

9.5%
3.3%
1.5%

0 10 20 30 40 50 60

Liberals Conservatives NDP Bloc Quebecois Greens People's Party Another Party
Are you optimistic or pessimistic about the economy for the rest
of the year?
breakout by party support and region

Total 17% 38.3% 23.1% 13.2% 8.4%

Male 16.9% 38.1% 24% 14.1%

Female 17% 38.5% 22.1% 12.4% 10%

Age and Gender

18-34 16.1% 35.1% 24% 15.5% 9.2%

35-49 17.8% 38% 22.2% 14.4% 7.7%

50-64 17.4% 38.4% 23.9% 12.1% 8.3%

65+ 16.7% 43.1% 21.7% 9.9% 8.5%

0 10 20 30 40 50 60 70 80 90 100

Very Optimistic Somewhat Optimistic Somewhat Pessimistic

Total 17% Very Pessimistic

38.3% Not23.1%
Sure 13.2% 8.4%

Liberals 32% 44% 15.4% 6%

Conservatives 40.4% 27.4% 19.7%

Party Support

Total 20.3% 38.7% 22.7% 11.4%

NDP 13.2% 33.1% 31.3% 13% 9.4%

Liberals 37.3% 43.8% 10.9%

36% 8.0% 36.6%

BlocConservatives 30.9%
31.6% 18.7% 15% 12.4%

NDP 13.8% 41.6% 29.4%

Green 12.8% 29.6% 27% 20.2% 10.3%
Bloc 11.2% 42.1% 23.0% 17.0%

People's Party 27.2%

Green 12.7% 31.7% 21.9%30.8% 28.5%16.7% 8.1% 15.7%

People's Party 23.3% 23.3% 31.0% 15.7%

Another Party 20.3% 15.7% 38.1% 20%
Another Party 17.4% 28.6% 19.2% 17.5% 17.4%

Undecided 21.7% 24.9% 12.4% 33.6%

Undecided 11.7% 27.1% 30.7% 8.2% 22.3%

0 10 0 20
10 2030 30 40
40 5050 60 6070 70
80 90 80100 90 100
Very Optimistic Somewhat Optimistic Somewhat Pessimistic
Very Optimistic Somewhat Optimistic Somewhat Pessimistic
Very Pessimistic Not Sure
Are you optimistic or pessimistic about your personal finances for
the rest of the year?
breakout by party support and region

Total 23% 38.2% 20.7% 10.6% 7.5%

Male 24% 37.8% 21.2% 10.3%

Female 22.1% 38.6% 20.2% 10.8% 8.3%

Age and Gender

18-34 21.2% 35% 23% 12.3% 8.4%

35-49 21.1% 40.7% 20.4% 12.1%

50-64 23.5% 38% 21.3% 10.4%

65+ 27.4% 39.7% 17.1% 9.3%

0 10 20 30 40 50 60 70 80 90 100

Very Optimistic Somewhat Optimistic Somewhat Pessimistic

Total 23% Very38.2%

Pessimistic Not Sure
20.7% 10.6%

Liberals 30.4% 44.8% 13.7% 6%

Conservatives 20.1% 35.4% 25.3% 13.3%

Party Support

Total 20.3% 38.7% 22.7% 11.4%

NDP 17.5% 36% 28.4% 11.4%

Liberals 37.3% 43.8% 10.9%

10.3% 47.8%
BlocConservatives 8.0% 36.6% 31.6% 15.3%
18.7% 11.5% 15.1%

NDP 13.8% 41.6% 29.4%

Green 19.9% 30.7% 27.6% 15.8% 6%
Bloc 11.2% 42.1% 23.0% 17.0%

People's Party 14.4%

Green 38.3%
12.7% 31.7% 30.8% 20.6% 16.7% 16.9%
8.1% 9.7%

People's Party 23.3% 23.3% 31.0% 15.7%

Another Party 18% 20% 17.4% 26.1% 18.5%
Another Party 17.4% 28.6% 19.2% 17.5% 17.4%

Undecided 21.9% 27.4% 16.7% 9.9% 24.2%

Undecided 11.7% 27.1% 30.7% 8.2% 22.3%

0 10 0 20
10 2030 30 40
40 5050 60 6070 70
80 90 80100 90 100
Very Optimistic Somewhat Optimistic Somewhat Pessimistic
Very Optimistic Somewhat Optimistic Somewhat Pessimistic
Very Pessimistic Not Sure
Breakout Tables
If the federal election were held today, which party would you vote for?
(all voters)
All Male Female 18-34 35-49 50-64 65+ BC AB Prairies ON QC Atlantic
Liberals led by Justin Trudeau 33.1% 28.9% 37.2% 30.1% 32.1% 34.9% 36% 28.7% 19.4% 19.9% 36.6% 38.3% 37.8%
Conservatives led by Andrew Scheer 31.3% 38.3% 24.5% 27.3% 31.6% 35.4% 31.1% 32% 58.5% 43.9% 31.6% 16.5% 25.2%
NDP led by Jagmeet Singh 9.5% 8.2% 10.8% 14.1% 9.9% 5.6% 7.9% 13.8% 4.4% 10.7% 10.6% 8.1% 7.3%
Bloc led by Yves-François Blanchet 2.8% 3.7% 2% 2.2% 3.3% 3.1% 2.7% - - - - 11.7% -
Green Party led by Elizabeth May 6% 4.5% 7.4% 8.6% 5.3% 4.3% 5.5% 9.50% 3.6% 5% 4.4% 7.5% 7.2%
People's Party led by Maxime Bernier 3.4% 4.7% 2.2% 4.7% 4.1% 2.3% 2.2% 2.80% 4.5% 4.1% 2.9% 4.1% 2.6%
Another Party 1.2% 1.5% 0.9% 1.9% 1% 1% 0.8% 1% 0.7% 1.1% 0.8% 2.3% 1.1%
Undecided 12.6% 10.2% 15.0% 11% 12.7% 13.3% 13.8% 12.10% 8.8% 15.3% 13.1% 11.5% 18.8%
Unweighted Frequency 7941 4516 3425 1433 1947 2380 2181 887 857 1563 1127 979 2528
Weighted Frequency 7941 3932 4009 2208 1989 2187 1557 1082 898 517 3044 1855 545

(leaning voters with true undecided totals)

All Male Female 18-34 35-49 50-64 65+ BC AB Prairies ON QC Atlantic
Liberals led by Justin Trudeau 35.2% 30.7% 39.7% 32.9% 33.4% 36.5% 39.2% 30.7% 19.4% 22.2% 39% 41.4% 40.7%
Conservatives led by Andrew Scheer 34.9% 41.9% 28% 30.1% 36.3% 38.7% 34.4% 34.4% 61.1% 47.3% 35.4% 19.7% 29.4%
NDP led by Jagmeet Singh 10% 8% 11.9% 14.5% 10.2% 6.4% 8.2% 14.2% 6.8% 11% 10.9% 8% 7.3%
Bloc led by Yves-François Blanchet 2.2% 2.9% 1.4% 1.7% 2.4% 2.4% 2.2% - - - - 9.2% -
Green Party led by Elizabeth May 7.2% 5.3% 9% 9.7% 6.5% 5.5% 6.7% 11.5% 5.8% 6.2% 5% 8.6% 8.9%
People's Party led by Maxime Bernier 4.1% 5.3% 3% 5.6% 4.8% 3% 2.8% 3.1% 6% 4.6% 3.5% 5.1% 3.1%
Another Party 1.5% 1.9% 1.2% 2.1% 1.4% 1.5% 1% 1.4% 0.7% 1.5% 1% 2.8% 1.4%
Undecided 5% 4.1% 5.8% 3.3% 5% 6.1% 5.6% 4.5% 0.3% 7.1% 5.2% 5.2% 9.2%
Unweighted Frequency 7941 4516 3425 1433 1947 2380 2181 887 857 1563 1127 979 2528
Weighted Frequency 7941 3932 4009 2208 1989 2187 1557 1082 898 517 3044 1855 545

(decided and leaning voters)

All Male Female 18-34 35-49 50-64 65+ BC AB Prairies ON QC Atlantic
Liberals led by Justin Trudeau 37.2% 32.2% 42.3% 34.1% 35.3% 39.2% 41.7% 32.5% 20% 24.4% 41.6% 42.4% 45.5%
Conservatives led by Andrew Scheer 35.1% 41.9% 28.4% 29.7% 36.6% 39.5% 34.9% 34.7% 60.1% 49.5% 36.0% 19.1% 31.2%
NDP led by Jagmeet Singh 11.5% 9.2% 13.9% 16.5% 11.8% 7.5% 9.5% 16.5% 7.6% 13.3% 12.8% 8.9% 8.9%
Bloc led by Yves-François Blanchet 3.2% 4.3% 2.2% 2.5% 3.7% 3.6% 3.3% - - - - 13.5% -
Green Party led by Elizabeth May 7.2% 5.3% 9.1% 9.6% 6.5% 5.6% 6.8% 11.6% 5.7% 6.5% 5.0% 8.4% 9.5%
People's Party led by Maxime Bernier 4.2% 5.3% 3.0% 5.5% 4.8% 3.0% 2.8% 3.1% 5.9% 4.8% 3.5% 5.0% 3.3%
Another Party 1.5% 1.9% 1.2% 2.1% 1.4% 1.5% 1.0% 1.5% 0.7% 1.6% 1.0% 2.7% 1.5%
Unweighted Frequency 7458 4297 3161 1355 1829 2233 2041 849 855 1458 1064 928 2304
Weighted Frequency 7458 3693 3765 2074 1868 2054 1462 1016 843 486 2859 1742 512
 Are you optimistic or pessimistic about the economy
for the rest of the year?
All Male Female 18-34 35-49 50-64 65+ BC AB Prairies ON QC Atlantic
Very Optimistic 17% 16.9% 17% 16.1% 17.8% 17.4% 16.7% 15.3% 20.3% 12.1% 17.3% 17% 17.9%
Somewhat Optimistic 38.3% 38.1% 38.5% 35.1% 38% 38.4% 43.1% 32.7% 65% 27.6% 34.2% 38.9% 36.7%
Somewhat Pessimistic 23.1% 24% 22.1% 24% 22.2% 23.9% 21.7% 28.9% 5.7% 24.2% 25.6% 23.9% 21.9%
Very Pessimistic 13.2% 14.1% 12.4% 15.5% 14.4% 12.1% 9.9% 15.3% 3.7% 25.8% 14.4% 11.3% 12.4%
Not Sure 8.4% 6.8% 10% 9.2% 7.7% 8.3% 8.5% 7.8% 5.3% 10.2% 8.4% 9% 11.1%
Unweighted Frequency 7941 4516 3425 1433 1947 2380 2181 887 857 1563 1127 979 2528
Weighted Frequency 7941 3932 4009 2208 1989 2187 1557 1082 898 517 3044 1855 545

LPC, CPC, NDP, Bloc, Green, People's Party, Another

All Undecided
Trudeau Scheer Singh Blanchet May Bernier Party
Very Optimistic 17% 32% 7.5% 13.2% 5.7% 12.8% 6.7% 5.9% 7.4%
Somewhat Optimistic 38.3% 44% 40.4% 33.1% 36% 29.6% 27.2% 20.3% 21.7%
Somewhat
23.1% 15.4% 27.4% 31.3% 30.9% 27% 21.9% 15.7% 24.9%
Pessimistic
Very Pessimistic 13.2% 2.5% 19.7% 13% 15% 20.2% 28.5% 38.1% 12.4%
Not Sure 8.4% 6% 5% 9.4% 12.4% 10.3% 15.7% 20% 33.6%
Unweighted
7941 2658 3045 665 101 568 306 115 483
Frequency
Weighted Frequency 7941 2799 2770 791 171 568 328 120 394

Are you optimistic or pessimistic about your personal finances

for the rest of the year?
All Male Female 18-34 35-49 50-64 65+ BC AB Prairies ON QC Atlantic
Very Optimistic 23% 24% 22.1% 21.2% 21.1% 23.5% 27.4% 23.9% 18.2% 17.4% 25.3% 22.1% 25.5%
Somewhat Optimistic 38.2% 37.8% 38.6% 35% 40.7% 38% 39.7% 40.4% 28% 36.2% 38.4% 41.9% 38.7%
Somewhat Pessimistic 20.7% 21.2% 20.2% 23% 20.4% 21.3% 17.1% 20.2% 25.8% 23.7% 20.1% 19.6% 17.5%
Very Pessimistic 10.6% 10.3% 10.8% 12.3% 12.1% 10.4% 6.4% 9.6% 20.1% 14.7% 9.3% 7.6% 10.4%
Not Sure 7.5% 6.6% 8.3% 8.4% 5.8% 6.7% 9.3% 5.8% 7.9% 8% 6.9% 8.8% 7.9%
Unweighted Frequency 7941 4516 3425 1433 1947 2380 2181 887 857 1563 1127 979 2528
Weighted Frequency 7941 3932 4009 2208 1989 2187 1557 1082 898 517 3044 1855 545

LPC, CPC, NDP, Bloc, Green, People's Party, Another

All Undecided
Trudeau Scheer Singh Blanchet May Bernier Party
Very Optimistic 23% 30.4% 20.1% 17.5% 10.3% 19.9% 14.4% 18% 21.9%
Somewhat Optimistic 38.2% 44.8% 35.4% 36% 47.8% 30.7% 38.3% 20% 27.4%
Somewhat
20.7% 13.7% 25.3% 28.4% 15.3% 27.6% 20.6% 17.4% 16.7%
Pessimistic
Very Pessimistic 10.6% 5.3% 13.3% 11.4% 11.5% 15.8% 16.9% 26.1% 9.9%
Not Sure 7.5% 6% 5.9% 6.7% 15.1% 6% 9.7% 18.5% 24.2%
Unweighted
7941 2658 3045 665 101 568 306 115 483
Frequency
Weighted Frequency 7941 2799 2770 791 171 568 328 120 394
Full Questionnaire
If the federal election were held today, Are you optimistic or pessimistic about
which party would you vote for? the economy in the coming year?
Liberal Party of Canada led by Justin Very Optimistic
Trudeau Somewhat Optimistic
Conservative Party of Canada led by Somewhat Pessimistic
Andrew Scheer Very Pessimistic
New Democratic Party of Canada led by Not Sure
Jagmeet Singh
Green Party of Canada led by Elizabeth Are you optimistic or pessimistic about
May your personal finances in the coming
People’s Party of Canada led by Maxime year?
Bernier Very Optimistic
Bloc Quebecois led by Yves-Francois Somewhat Optimistic
Blanchet Somewhat Pessimistic
(only given as an option in Quebec) Very Pessimistic
Another Party Not Sure
Undecided
What is your gender?
And which party are you leaning Male
towards? (only asked of respondents Female
who were undecided in Q1)
Liberal Party of Canada led by Justin What is your age group?
Trudeau 18 to 34 years of age
Conservative Party of Canada led by 35 to 49 years of age
Andrew Scheer 50 to 64 years of age
New Democratic Party of Canada led by 65 years of age or older
Jagmeet Singh
Green Party of Canada led by Elizabeth
May
People’s Party of Canada led by Maxime
Bernier
Bloc Quebecois led by Yves-Francois
Blanchet (only given as an option in
Quebec)
Another Party
Undecided

[Provincial related questions were asked

here - refer to the individual provincial
reports for those questions]
Methodology
The analysis in this report is based on results of a survey conducted between January 12th,
2019 and January 17th 2019, among a sample of 7941 adults, 18 years of age or older, living
in Canada. The survey was conducted using Interactive Voice Recording. Respondents were
interviewed on both landlines and cellular phones. The survey is intended to represent the
voting population of Canada.

This survey was conducted by Mainstreet Research and has not been sponsored by any third-
party organization.

The sampling frame was derived from both a national telephone directory compiled by
Mainstreet Research from various commercially available sources and random digit dialing.
The survey that dialed from the directory was conducted as a stratified dial of the ten Canadian
provinces. In the case of random digit dials, respondents were asked the additional question
of what region of the country they resided in. Respondents were dialed at random.

At least two attempts were made to complete an interview at every sampled telephone
number. The calls were staggered over times of day and two days to maximize the chances
of making contact with a potential respondent. Interviewing was also spread as evenly as
possible across the field period.

The questionnaire used in this survey is available in this report and online at www.
mainstreetresearch.ca. Questions are asked as they appear in the release document. If
a question is asked of a subset of the sample a descriptive note is added in parenthesis
preceding the question.

The sample was weighted by population parameters from the Canada 2016 Census for adults
18 years of age or older in Canada. The population parameters used for weighting are age,
gender, and region.

The margin of error for this poll is +/- 1.1% at the 95% confidence level. Margins of error are
higher in each subsample.

The margins of error for each subsample is as following: Males: +/- 1.46%, Females: +/- 1.68%,
18-34 age group: +/- 1.68%, 35-49 age group: +/- 2.2%, 50-64 age group: +/- 2.01%, 65+
age group: +/- 2.11%, British Columbia: +/- 3.35%, Alberta: +/- 3.35%, Prairies: +/- 2.48%,
Ontario: +/- 2.92%, Quebec: +/- 3.13%, Atlantic Canada: +/- 1.97%.

Totals may not add up 100% due to rounding.

In addition to sampling error, one should bear in mind that the wording of questions and
practical difficulties in conducting surveys can introduce error or bias into the findings of
opinion polls. Moreover, all sample surveys and polls may be subject to other sources of
error, including, but not limited to coverage error, and measurement error.