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May 2, 2017
Santosh Yellapu Following are the key developments from the Defense space that we track for the week of
Research Analyst 24 ‐ 30 April, 2017.
Tel: +91 22 62406456
santosh.yellapu@indianivesh.in
Political Developments
India is the World’s 5th largest Defense spender
Afghanistan asks India to help repair grounded Planes, Helicopters
Industry Developments
Meteor Missile completes integrated flight tests on Rafale
AGNI‐III test fires successfully
Brahmos Missiles to be made at Jabalpur
MOD to seek fresh bids from L&T, RDEL for Rs 200bn Warship Project
Company Updates
TaMo bags contract to supply 3,192 Safari Stormes to IA
MoD nominates HSL for a collaborative project with S‐Korean major
Top Bets
Bharat Electronics Ltd. (BEL)
Upcoming Bids
Glossary
IndiaNivesh Securities Limited|Research Analyst SEBI Registration No. INH000000511
IndiaNivesh Research 601 & 602, SukhSagar, N. S. PatkarMarg, GirgaumChowpatty, Mumbai 400 007. Tel: (022) 66188800
IndiaNivesh Research is also available on Bloomberg INNS, Thomson First Call, Reuters and Factiva INDNIV.
Sector | Defense & Aerospace (contd...)
Political Developments:
th
India is the World’s 5 largest Defense spender
As per data released by Stockholm International Peace Research Institute (SIPRI) on Apr 24,
th
India's Defense expenditure grew ~8.5% in 2016 to $55.9bn, thereby, making it the World’s 5
largest Defense spender.
With $611 bn of spending USA remained as the world’s largest Defense spender. It registered
1.7% growth. This growth could signal an end of the earlier trend of lower spending, which was
owing to economic crisis and withdrawal of US troops from Afghanistan and Iraq. Notably, the
2016 spending is 20% lower than peak spent during 2010.
nd
China happens to be the 2 largest Defense spender with $215 bn of spending. China reported
5.4% increase in the Defense spending, lower than the previous years.
rd
Russia reported 5.9% increase in Defense spending to $69.2 bn, thereby making it 3 largest
spender. Saudi Arabia was piped by Russia to be the 4th largest spender in 2016. Saudi Arabia
reported 30% decline in its 2016 Defense spend to $63.7 bn, despite their involvement in
regional wars.
nd
Growing threat perceptions in Western Europe led to 2 consecutive year higher spending
towards Defense, with this year witnessing 2.6% increase. Notably in this region Italy reported
11% increase in Defense spending, followed by Germany.
Afghanistan asks India to help repair grounded Planes, Helicopters
In addition to asking for military support, Afghanistan has asked India to help them in the repair
works of 11 Mi‐35 Helicopters and 7 Antonov AN‐32 Transport Aircrafts grounded.
Earlier in 2016 Afghanistan requested spares supply to refurbish 50 Helicopters and few AN‐32
Transport Aircrafts. In addition to refurbishing Helicopters & Aircrafts, Afghanistan requested
for T‐72 tanks, 105 mm Howitzers and AN‐32 Transport Aircrafts.
A technical delegation from India visited Afghanistan Air Force (AAF) in 2016 to assess their
needs. The team estimates the value of repair work and spare supplies to be at $50 mn.
Our View:
AAF currently operates 5 Mi‐35 Helicopters (supplied by Czech Republic in 2008) and ~100 Mi‐
24s (Soviet Union supplied during 1979‐89) to AAF. Most of these Helicopters were destroyed
during the civil war; with few gunships remaining‐in‐service till 2001.
West has imposed restrictions on Russia. Afghanistan being helped by NATO nations can’t
purchase Russian Hardware. In 2014, India‐Russia‐Afghanistan signed tri‐partite agreement,
where India agreed to finance Russian Arms sales to Afghanistan.
Owing to delays in procurement of spare parts, India delivered 4 Mi‐25 Helicopters to AAF in
Dec‐2016 (first time India transferred any military equipment to Afghanistan). Thereafter no
military transaction has happened.
Afghanistan in recent times has requested India to get spares funding, but India has remained
non‐committal fearing any geo‐political repercussions. Recent media articles indicate Indian
government is willing to consider this proposal to finance repair, spares cost on the condition
that Russia agrees to provide the spares.
On the other hand, few media articles indicate that Russia has expressed its interest to supply
unknown number of Mi‐35 (M/ “Hind E” variant) Helicopters. Russia is even willing to take over
the maintenance of recently delivered Mi‐25s from India and agreed to overhaul AAF’s Mi‐17
Helicopters fleet.
On a whole, the fast paced change in the political equations of the Asian sub‐continent defines
how Afghanistan’s Defense requirements would be met in the near‐to‐medium term.
(contd...) May 2, 2017 | 2
Sector | Defense & Aerospace (contd...)
Industry Developments:
Meteor Missile completes integrated flight tests on Rafale
On Apr 27, French Defence Procurement Agency (DGA) and team members representing
Dassault, MBDA, and Thales completed the final guided firing (integration flight test) of Meteor
Missiles (a long‐range Air‐to‐Air Missile against an air target) from Rafale Combat Aircrafts at
DGA’s Biscarrosse Test Centr. Meteor will become operational on the Rafale F3R in 2018.
During the test, Meteor successfully engaged and destroyed a high‐speed air target simulating
an evading Fighter Aircraft. This was the fifth test as per the 2‐year integration flight testing
campaign of the Meteor air‐to‐air missile on Rafale. All functionalities (activation of data‐link
between Rafale and Missile in various conditions, Electronic Warfare) were successfully tested.
Our View:
In Sep‐2016, India signed an agreement with French government to purchase 36 Rafale Fighter
Jets for Euro 7.8 bn. First Rafale Fighter is slated to be delivered within 18 months of signing
final contract (i.e. by 2019). As part of this transaction, India is to acquire unspecified number
of MICA Air‐to‐Air Missiles; SCALP Air‐to‐Ground Missiles, Meteor Beyond‐Visual‐Range
Missiles and Precision‐guided Munitions. With successful conclusion of trials, we are assured
that Rafale Jets to be procured in 2019 would have integrated MICA, Meteor and SCALP
Missiles.
Meteor’s (a Beyond‐Visual Range Air‐to‐Air Missile) dual‐rocket and Ramjet propulsion system
provides it the power and acceleration with a maximum range of ~100 kms. Missiles technology
edge places it as one of the best BVRAAM, the next one being AIM‐120D (latest variant of US
Advanced Medium Range Air‐to‐Air Missile).
MBDA has been directly in India for over 4 decades and is supplying MILAN, MICA, ASRAAM,
MISTRAL Missiles, amongst others.
L&T formed a JV with MBDA (L&T owning 51% stake in L&T MBDA Missile Systems Ltd) in Feb‐
2017, with initial focus to make Missile Moyenne Portee (MMP), a 5th‐gen. Anti‐Tank Guided
Missile. India intends to replace Milan and Javelin Anti‐Tank Missiles with MMP / Spider ATGM
in long run. We won’t be surprised to see some awarding by IAF for MICA, Meteor and SCALP
Missiles in 2020 and beyond. Any such development in our view could possibly benefit the L&T‐
MBDA JV in the long‐run.
AGNI‐III test fires successfully
On Apr‐27, IA’s Strategic Forces Command (SFC) and DRDO (for logistic support) successfully
test fired, the indigenously built Surface‐to‐Surface Intermediate Range Ballistic Missile (IRBM)
Agni‐III from a Mobile Launcher at Complex‐IV of Integrated Test Range (ITR) at Abdul Kalam
Island, Odisha.
Notably, the Missile used for this test was picked up randomly from the production lot.
About Agni‐III: Agni‐III is 17m tall & capable of carrying both, conventional and nuclear
warheads weighing up to 1.5tn. It has a 2m of diameter and weighs ~22tn (including warhead
its ~50tn) and is protected by carbon composite heat shield. This Ballistic Missile travels at 3‐4
miles (5‐7 kms) per second, with its 2‐stage solid propellant engine can have a strike range of
3,000‐5,000 km. The missile was inducted into the Indian Armed Forces in June 2011.
Brahmos Missiles to be made at Jabalpur
A team from BrahMos Aerospace Ltd (JV between DRDO‐50.5% and NPO Mashinostroeyenia of
Russia with the remaining stake) visited Jabalpur on Apr‐25 to survey some of the land parcels
for setting‐up the plant. BrahMos envisages a total land requirement of ~70‐100 hectares. The
exact location of the plant is likely to be finalized by May‐2017. This Missile plant is likely to
generate ~ 10,000 direct and indirect employments.
Notably, Jabalpur being located at the center of the country enjoys the presence of Ordinance
Factory Board (OFB), Central Ordnance Depot, Gun Carriage Factory, Vehicle Factory and Grey
Iron Foundry.
(contd...) May 2, 2017 | 3
Sector | Defense & Aerospace (contd...)
Current Status on BrahMos Missiles: This 8.4m tall BrahMos Missiles is based on Russian P‐800
Onix Cruise Missiles technology. It is the world's fastest Anti‐ship Cruise Missile in operation
with a speed of Mach 2.8‐3.0.
Brahmos is operational as Land‐attack missile with IA on Wheeled Erector‐launchers. In Mar‐
2017, an enhanced version was test‐fired from Mobile autonomous launcher at a higher range
than the present one. Brahmos is already in service with IN as an Anti‐Ship Missile. On Apr‐21,
for the first time an Indian Warship (INS Teg) test‐launched BrahMos missile against a land
target. Test firing of Air‐launched version from Su‐30MKI is delayed owing to integration issues.
The tests are now scheduled for June‐2017. Weight of the Air version of this Missile has been
reduced as it will be launched from a moving platform unlike its Land and Sea versions.
The Hypersonic version (BrahMos‐II) is under development phase with a speed of Mach 7‐8. It
is expected to be ready for testing in May‐2017. This BrahMos version is based on the Zircon
series. Recently, Russia reported successful firing test of long‐range hypersonic Zircon Missiles.
Currently BrahMos Missile has a range of 450 kms. With Russia and India signatories to the
Missile Control Technology Regime (MCTR), this JV plans to increase the Missile range of the
new variant to ~600 km.
Our View:
BrahMos Missile is the only Cruise Missile capable to be launched from Submarines, Ships,
Aircraft and Land. Recent successful trials from INS Teg and on assuming successful trials from
Su‐30MKI, demand for BrahMos Missile Systems from Indian Armed Forces would be
conservatively over a billion dollars during FY2018‐20. BrahMos Aerospace Pvt. Ltd (BAPL)
being the manufacturer/ integrator will benefit from such awarding. Our view is based on the
assumption that IAF would equip 42 of the Su‐30 MKIs with 2016 BrahMos Missiles.
Godrej Aerospace supplies Airframe Assemblies for BAPL. In Nov‐2013, it handed over first set
of 40 Airframe Assemblies to be integrated with Su‐30 MKIs. As per media articles, at the
beginning of 2014, Godrej Aerospace was to produce 100 BrahMos Missile Airframes for BAPL.
Further requests from 7 countries from the Asia, Pacific, Latin America and Middle East region
who are using Su‐30s is pending for the procurement of BrahMos Missile Systems. Anticipating
huge order inflows from the domestic as well as International markets, BAPL is planning to set‐
up the plant, which is in the right direction.
MOD to seek fresh bids from L&T, RDEL for Rs 200bn Warship Project
Ministry of Defense (MoD) has announced that it would seek fresh bids from Larsen &Turbo
(L&T) and Reliance Defense and Engineering (RDEL) for the Rs 200bn Landing Platform Docks
(LPD) for the IN. This project would now be awarded on L1 (lowest bidder) basis instead of the
earlier proposed division of works between Private shipyards selected through competitive
process and nomination of work to Hindustan Shipyard Ltd. (HSL).
Vice Admiral DM Deshpande, Controller of Warship Production and Acquisition clarified that
owing to HSL’s current Order book and other reasons, decision to award all 4 LPDs to private
sector shipyards was taken. A contract to procure these 4 LPDs will be finalized by FY2018‐end.
ABG Shipyard (ABGSL) is out of race as it has failed Corporate Debt Restructuring (CDR) carried
out by ICICI.
Backdrop of the project: In Dec‐2013, IN floated Rs 200bn domestic tender for construction
of 4 LPDs and bids were sent to domestic shipyards L&T, Pipavav Defense and ABG Shipyard.
L&T cleared the financial and technical capacity assessment report. DAC has cleared capacity
assessment of RDEL last year.
LPD vessel’s should be able to house Combat Vehicles (inc. Main Battle Tanks, Infantry Combat
Vehicles and Heavy Trucks), undertake all‐weather operations, including Heavy‐lift Helicopters
of up to 35 tn.
Our View:
(contd...) May 2, 2017 | 4
Sector | Defense & Aerospace (contd...)
Both the companies have tied‐up with strong technical partners. RDEL has tied‐up with DCNS,
France and L&T has tied‐up with Navantia, Spain for this tender. We await the outcome of this
tender.
Company Update:
TaMo bags contract to supply 3,192 Safari Stormes to IA
On Apr‐27, Tata Motors (TaMo) announced that it has signed an agreement with IA to supply
3,192 units of Tata Safari Storme 4*4 under a new category of vehicles‐ GS800. TaMo won this
tender on fulfillment of the following 3 key requirements‐ minimum payload capacity of 800
kgs; Hard Roofs and Air‐Conditioning, spelled out in the RFP and on completion of 15 months of
trial in various terrains.
Our View:
This is Tata’s second big ticket Defense project win in last few years. Earlier, TaMo had won Rs
9bn contract as a replacement for Tatra trucks. As part of this contract TaMo is to supply 1,200
units of Tata High Mobility Vehicle 6*6 (built on Prima truck platform) in the 10 tn class from its
Dharwad plant, Karnataka. This order won in Jul‐2015 is for Material Handling Cranes to load‐
unload, transport Ammunition, Pallets, Spares and Other Operational Equipment. This contract
is to be delivered in 24 months.
TaMo had won a follow‐on order in Mar‐2016 to supply 619 units. Even though figures were
not disclosed for the value of this project, we expect it to be somewhere around ~Rs 4.6bn.
The second contract of TATA Safari Storme in 4*4 Light Vehicle category would replace Maruti
Gypsy. Maruti Suzuki stayed away from the bidding in Apr‐2013, as the bids were invited for
800 kg general service vehicle and Gypsy sells in 500 kg vehicle category. At the time of
tendering TaMo, M&M and Nissan had submitted their bids for providing ~30,000 vehicles for
over Rs 30bn. IA selected Tata Safari Storme and Mahindra Scorpio after rigorous tests. A more
feasible deal led TaMo get this contract. We expect more of follow‐on orders from this
segment going forward, as replacement of 30,000 Gypsies is in the pipeline. On a whole, we
expect TaMo to benefit from this awarding.
Currently our Auto Analyst has a HOLD rating on Tata Motors stock with price target of 523.
MoD nominates HSL for a collaborative project with S‐Korean major
MoD has nominated Hindustan Shipyard Limited (HSL) for collaboration with one of the leading
shipyards of South Korea. As per an Inter‐Governmental Agreement (IGA) signed between
Secretary‐ Defence Production, Mr. Ashok Kumar Gupta and Minister for Defence Acquisition
and Programme Administration of South Korea, Change Myong Jin on Apr‐28, HSL would work
with Hyundai Heavy Industries to build 5 Fleet Support Ships (FSS’s) at an estimated cost of Rs
100bn. HSL top management expects to start the works in next 12‐24 months.
HSL already signed MoU with Hyundai in Jan‐2015 for design and construction of 6 Submarines
(Project 75‐I) for $9.7 bn. No progress has been since then on this project.
Our View:
Tie‐up with Hyundai is a big boost for HSL, as it would lead to shipyard upgradation and get
transfer of technology (tot). Post this agreement, we expect the sourcing of components
(related to the ship construction) to be done from Korea.
Having faced financial troubles due to lack of any orders, HSL was bought under the purview of
MoD (from Ministry of Shipping) in Feb‐2010. HSL successfully retrofitted INS Sindhukirti, and
works began for normal refit of INS Sindhuvir in Jan‐2017. INS Sindhuvir (Sindhughosh‐class
diesel‐electric Submarine) will undergo normal repairs (cost estimated at ~Rs 4bn) for 2 years
at HSL.
On the back of order wins and their execution HSL clocked FY2017 sales of Rs 6.25bn. Higher
revenue booking contributed to turnaround as HSL reported prov. profit of Rs 300mn in FY2017
(vs. Rs190mn of profit in FY2016).
(contd...) May 2, 2017 | 5
Sector | Defense & Aerospace (contd...)
Top Bets:
BEL 183 408,196 BUY 192 4.7x 91,761 105,229 17,421 20,968 15,709 18,606 7.03 8.33 18.2 19.0 26.0 21.9
Some of the Upcoming Defense Bids:
Project Released Last Date Final
Project details Status Bids Issued to Criterions
Cost by for bids Selection
15,000 night vision devices (NVDs) for
RFI IA
Rocket Launchers
5,000 night vision devices (NVDs) for
RFI IA
Medium Machine Guns
125,000 night vision devices (NVDs) for
RFI IA
Other Small handheld Arm $ 3.2 bn
1,400 Uncooled Thermal Imager based
Driver's Night Sight (DNS) with fusion
technology for Russian‐origin T‐90 tanks. RFI IA
Army requires range of detection of human
target at minimum 1,000m
Possible contest amongst these 2
Medium multi‐role Fighter (Single Engine) RFI
IAF Bidders: Saab’s Gripen E,
with transfer of Technology (equivalent)
Lockheed Martin’s F‐16 Block 70
Boeing’s F/A‐18 Super Hornet,
57 Multi Role Carrier Borne Fighters Russian Su‐33, MiG‐29K Fulcrum
RFI $12 bn IN May‐17
(MRCBF) fighter jet, Saab’s Sea Gripen
(only aircraft to fit RFI req.)
Vertical launch short range surface‐to‐air‐
missile (SAM) system for fitment onboard RFI IN
IN ships
Procure multi‐functional radio sets known
RFI IA
as "Software Defined Radio (SDR)
1,500 Anti‐Material Lightweight Rifles RFI IA May‐17 ToT
Source: IndiaNivesh Research, Indian Armed Forces websites
Glossary:
MoD: Ministry of Defense
IAF: Indian Air Force
IN: Indian Navy
IA: Indian Army
SPAD: Self‐propelled Air Defense System
RFI :Request for Information
RFQ: Request for Qualification
RFP: Request for Proposal
GoI: Government of India
IDDM: Indigenously Designed, Developed & Manufactured
ARDC: Aviation Research & Design Centre
ARDE: Armament Research and Development Establishment
RCI: Research Centre Imarat
DAC: Defense Acquisition Council
ARDE: Armament Research and Development Establishment
HEMRL: High Energy Materials Research Laboratory
CCS: Cabinet Committee on Security
DRDO: Defense Research & Development Organisation
MoU: Memorandum of Understanding
ICG: Indian Coast Guard
HAL: Hindustan Aeronautics Limited
(contd...) May 2, 2017 | 6
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