The Polar Vortex Could Bring Life-Threatening Cold to the Midwest Next Week

The Chicago skyline in front of icy Lake Michigan during a January 2014 cold snap.

Photo: Getty

If you live in the Midwest, I’m sorry. All signs are pointing toward an extremely dangerous and
potentially historic cold snap descending on the region next week thanks to the polar vortex. It will
make last week’s dalliance with polar vortex-induced cold look like a beach vacation and could put
lives at risk.

Weather models are largely in agreement that very cold air will descend on the Midwest next week.
The biggest questions now are just how cold it will get and when the chilliest air will descend.

Cold is already gripping the Midwest. On Friday, Duluth, Minnesota sat at minus-17 degrees
Fahrenheit while Chicago was at minus-4 degrees Fahrenheit. The National Weather Service has
much of the Upper Midwest blanketed in wind chill watches and warnings, and warns that in
Minnesota, wind chills could drop “25 below to as low as 40 below zero” before a slight reprieve on
Monday.

This could be just a tune up for what’s the come. The big chill is likely to ushered in by midweek as
the Midwest stares down what could be some of the coldest air anywhere on the planet. Models
suggest temperatures could be anywhere from 15-50 degrees Fahrenheit below normal for this time
of year. The lower end of that spectrum comes courtesy of an upgrade to the American model, while
the oft-praised (but not always right) Euro is predicting the most extreme polar plunge. The exact
details may still in flux, but I feel comfortable saying the weather will either completely suck, be
totally brutal, or cold as balls.

The chill will encircle Lake Michigan with the surrounding states suffering the consequences.
Chicago could be a bone-rattling minus-15 degrees Fahrenheit. All of Minnesota could be dealing
with temperatures below minus-20 degrees Fahrenheit by midweek. Parts of the Dakotas could be
looking at minus-40 degrees Fahrenheit. Add in winds and parts of the Midwest could be facing a
wind chill of minus-50 degrees Fahrenheit. Under those conditions, wind chill can set in within 10
minutes.

That’s why the cold snap poses a particularly huge risk to the homeless. The Chicago Coalition for
the Homeless conducted its annual survey of people living on the streets as the temperatures plunged
on Thursday. Last year’s count put the city’s homeless population at 5,400, though that number is
likely much higher according to the group. Despite the risks, local homeless shelters aren’t expecting
a big uptick in people looking to get out of the cold, according to the Chicago Tribune.

The major temperature dip is being driven by the polar vortex, which was destabilized earlier this
month when the stratosphere—the layer above the lower atmosphere—rapidly warmed in the Arctic.
That set off a chain of events where the polar vortex split into chunks and that have savaged the
lower latitudes with frigid air and bizarre weather. There was last week’s chill in the Midwest and
the Greek freak snow earlier this month. Now the Midwest is set to feel its wrath again.
A few recent avenues of research indicate cold air snaps and weird weather like what we’ve seen
the past few winters could be tied to climate change, which is warming the Arctic twice as fast as
the rest of the planet. That could lead to a more unstable jet stream, the speedy river of air that
normally keeps cold locked up in the high latitudes. It’s an active area of research, but regardless, a
few cold snaps do not disprove climate change despite what Twitter trolls may say.