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Tom Kreutz
Princeton Environmental Institute
Princeton University
1
The Carbon Mitigation Initiative (CMI)
at Princeton University, 2001-2010
• CMI Project Areas:
- Carbon capture (Kreutz, Larson, Ogden, Socolow, Williams):
production, distribution, and utilization of electricity and H2
from fossil fuels.
- Carbon storage (Celia): modeling CO2 storage in and leakage
from saline aquifers; emphasis on risk assessment.
- Carbon science (Pacala, Sarmiento, GFDL): global climate
modeling of CO2 in the atmosphere, oceans, and land.
- Carbon policy (Bradford, Oppenheimer): Kyoto alternatives,
stabilization targets, GH damage functions.
- Integration: economic implications of delayed action,
knowledge about trajectories, optimal emission paths.
3
Point of Departure
4
World Consumption of Primary Energy
Coal
Natural Gas
Oil
From: http://www.bp.com/centres/energy2002/primary.asp#
5
Fossil Fuels are…
• plentiful: Global Fossil Carbon Resource Additional
Resources (Gt) Base
8
Use of Fossil Fuels in a Carbon-
Constrained World
• Stabilization of CO2 concentrations (e.g. 550
ppmv) will require huge reductions in CO2
emissions over the next century.
• Thus, continued, large scale use of fossil fuels
will require carbon capture and storage (CCS).
• Large scale generation of carbon-free energy
carriers, electricity and hydrogen, from fossil
fuels is commonplace.
• CO2 separation/capture can be accomplished
with proven, commercial technology.
• Very large scale CO2 storage is the big unknown.
9
Second Point of Departure
11
Global Capacity For CO2 Storage
In Deep Saline Aquifers
• For comparison:
– Cumulative emissions, 1990-2100, from fossil fuel burning
[Business-As-Usual Global Energy Scenario (IS92a) of IPCC:
1,500 GtC]
– Carbon content of remaining exploitable fossil fuels (excluding
methane hydrates) ~ 5,000 – 7,000 GtC
12
CO2 Disposal Experience
13
Current CO2 Emissions
100% 1997
32.0
80%
48.6
60%
Other
32.0
Transportation
40% 20.8
Electricity
20% 36.0
30.6
0%
United States World
60%
Other
29.4 Transportation
34.4
40% Electricity
20%
33.4
25.2
0%
United States World
500
Natural Gas
400 Petroleum
300 Coal
200
100
0
Electricity Transportation Industrial Commercial Residential
17
Drivers for the H2 Economy
18
Difficulties with the H2 Economy
19
“Low-Carbon” Electricity
• Electricity grid already exists.
• Competition between:
- “Decarbonized” fossil-based, central station power
generation, via CO2 capture and storage (CCS),
- Nuclear power
- Renewable energy (wind, solar, biomass)
20
Economics of Base Case System
Capital Cost (million $)
1800
H2 refueling Sta
1600
1400 Local H2 Distribution
1200 H2 pipeline 100 km
1000
H2 Storage at Central
800 Plant
600 CO2 Wells and Injection
Site
400
CO2 Pipeline 100 km
200
0 H2 Plant
14 Local H2 Distrib
12
H2 Pipeline 100 km
10
H2 Storage at H2 Plant
8
6 CO2 Wells and Injection
Site
4 CO2 Pipeline 100 km
2
Feedstock
0
H2 from NG H2 from Coal H2 Plant
21
22
H2 DEMAND DENSITY (kg/d/km2): YEAR 1:
25% OF NEW Light Duty Vehicles = H2 FCVs
Blue shows good locations for refueling station
23
H2 DEMAND DENSITY (kg/d/km2):
YEAR 5: 25% OF NEW LDVs = H2 fueled
24
H2 DEMAND DENSITY (kg/d/km2):
YEAR 10: 25% OF NEW LDVs = H2 fueled
25
H2 DEMAND DENSITY (kg/d/km2):
YEAR 15: 25% OF NEW LDVs = H2 fueled
26
Societal Lifecycle Costs ($/veh) for Alternative
Fueled Vehicles, Including Externality Costs
16000
Current
14000
ICEVs Adv. Hybrid Fuel Cell Vehicles
ICEVs ICEVs Energy Supply Security
12000
GHG
10000 Air Pollution
8000 Fuel
6000 Vehicle Body
Drive Train
4000
2000
0
27
Societal Lifecycle Costs ($/veh) with Low,
Medium, and High Externality Values
25000 Oil Supply Insecurity High Externality Values
GHG Current
ICEV
Air Pollution
Fuel
Vehicle Body Medium Externality Values
20000
Drive Train
H2 Fuel
ICE/HEVs Cell Veh
Low Externality Values
Adv.
Current
ICEVs
ICEV
15000
Current Adv. ICE/HEVs
ICEV ICE/HEVs H2 Fuel ICEVs H2 Fuel
Adv.
Cell Veh Cell Veh
ICEVs
10000
5000
28
The Case for Hydrogen
29
The Case for Coal
30
Why Focus on Coal and Gasification?
• Coal resources abundant globally.
• Coal prices low and not volatile.
• Much of global population (e.g., China, India) heavily
coal-dependent.
• Widespread use of coal is a GH disaster.
• Gasification is relatively efficient, and can be quite
clean, esp. with CCS.
• Gasification provides a route to H2, with its numerous
advantages:
– Secure alternative to oil for transportation
– near-zero emissions of air pollutants/GHGs
31
GASIFICATION ACTIVITY WORLDWIDE
• Gasification technology for making chemicals in market by 1970
• Cool Water demonstration of coal IGCC power, 1984-1989
H2- and
CO2-rich
Water-gas shift syngas
Quench + Syngas cleanup, CO2
(WGS) reactors
scrubber gas separation
CO + H2O <=> H2 + CO2
CO2
CO-rich
drying and
raw syngas H2-rich compression
syngas
Coal Supercritical
slurry O2-blown CO2 (150 bar)
coal
gasifier Heat recovery,
steam generation
95% Hydrogen
O2 compression
Electricity
production H2 product
(60 bar)
Air Air
separation
Electric
unit
power
N2
• Benchmarking/calibration:
• Economics of IGCC with carbon capture studied by numerous groups
• Used as a point of reference for performance and economics of our system
• Many capital-intensive components are common between IGCC electricity
and H2 production systems (both conventional and membrane-based)
34
Estimates of Overnight Component Capital Costs
1 2
Solids handling 1 1
ASU 1 0
Simbeck
O2 compression 9
Holt
Gasifier & quench 8
Doctor
WGS reactor 7
Chiesa
Membrane reactor 6
Hendriks
Raffinate turbine 5
Pruden
FGD 4
3,000-6,000 $/m
2 EPRI
H2 compression 3
Scale (HHV):
HRSG, steam turb. 2
1.5 GW th
CO2 compression 1
coal,
0
36
Example of Disaggregated Cost of H2 Production system
(membrane system...change to conventional)...drop slide?
5 Raffinate turbine
Membrane reactor
4
H.T. WGS reactor
• 70 bar gasifier, 85% HRF, uncooled raffinate turbine, scale: 1 GWth H2 (HHV)
37
Coal IGCC Electricity with CO2 Capture
High temp. Low temp. Regeneration, Solvent
WGS WGS Claus, SCOT regeneration
reactor reactor
H2- and Lean/rich Lean/rich
CO2-rich solvent solvent
syngas CO2 drying +
compression
H2S CO2
Quench +
physical physical
scrubber
absorption absorption Supercritical
CO2 to storage
CO2-lean
CO-rich exhaust H2-rich
raw syngas gases Saturated syngas
steam
Coal Syngas
slurry O2-blown
expander
coal Heat recovery
gasifier steam generator
Turbine
95% exhaust
O2
Steam
turbine
Air Air
separation
unit Gas turbine
Air
N2 for (NOx control)
• Plant scale: 362 MWe, efficiency: 34.9% (HHV), cost: 6.5 ¢/kWh (no carbon
tax) vs. 4.8 ¢/kWh venting, 6.7 ¢/kWh (at 96 $/tonne C). (70 bar gasifier
with quench cooling) 38
H2 Production: Add H2 Purification/Separation
High temp. Low temp. Regeneration, Solvent
WGS WGS Claus, SCOT regeneration
reactor reactor
H2- and Lean/rich Lean/rich
CO2-rich solvent solvent
syngas CO2 drying +
compression
H2S CO2
Quench +
physical physical
scrubber
absorption absorption Supercritical
CO2 to storage
CO2-lean
CO-rich exhaust H2-rich
raw syngas gases Saturated syngas
steam
Coal Syngas
slurry O2-blown
expander
coal Heat recovery
gasifier steam generator
Turbine
95% exhaust
O2
Steam
turbine
Air Air
separation
unit Gas turbine
Air
N2 for (NOx control)
39
Conventional H2 Production with CO2 Capture
High temp. Low temp. Regeneration, Solvent
WGS WGS Claus, SCOT regeneration
reactor reactor
H2- and Lean/rich Lean/rich
CO2-rich solvent solvent
syngas CO2 drying +
compression
H2S CO2
Quench +
physical physical
scrubber
absorption absorption Supercritical
CO2 to storage
CO2-lean
CO-rich exhaust High purity
raw syngas gases Saturated Pressure H2 product
steam swing
adsorption
Coal
slurry O2-blown Purge
coal Heat recovery gas
gasifier steam generator
Turbine
95% exhaust
O2
Steam
turbine
Air Air
separation
unit Gas turbine
Air
N2 for (NOx control)
Turbine
95% exhaust
O2
Steam
turbine
Air Air
separation
unit Gas turbine
Air
N2 for (NOx control)
41
Conventional H2 Production with CO2/H2S Capture
Solvent
regeneration
Steam
Air Air turbine
separation
unit Gas turbine
Air
N2 for (NOx control)
42
Conventional H2 with Co-Sequestration of CO2
and Sulfur-bearing Species
CO2 venting Pure CO2 sequestration Co-sequestration
8
7
H2 Cost ($/GJ HHV)
6
5
2
1
0
Conv. tech. base case
Includes $5/t CO2 = ~0.5 $/GJ HHV sequestration cost
• CO2 capture and sequestration lowers efficiency by ~3% and increases H2 cost
by ~ 1.5 $/GJ.
(Cost of CO2 pipeline transport and disposal used here is 0.4-0.6 $/GJ.)
• Co-sequestration has potential to lower H2 cost by 0.25-0.75 $/GJ, depending on
sulfur content of coal.
43
Produce “Fuel Grade” H2 with CO2/H2S Capture
Solvent
regeneration
Steam
Air Air turbine
separation
unit Gas turbine
Air
N2 for (NOx control)
44
“Fuel Grade” (~93% pure) H2 with CO2/H2S Capture
Solvent
regeneration
Steam
Air Air turbine
separation
unit
N2
45
Production of “Fuel Grade” H2
CO2 venting Pure CO2 sequestration Co-sequestration
7
H2 Cost ($/GJ HHV)
6
5
0
Conv. tech. base case Fuel grade H2
Includes $5/t CO2 = ~0.5 $/GJ HHV sequestration cost
24%
37%
CO 2 drying, WGS
compression reactors, heat
exchangers
CO 2 drying,
Selexol CO 2 compression
absorption,
and stripping
36% 100%
• Incremental cost for CO2 capture is less for hydrogen than electricity because
much of the equipment is already needed for a H2 plant.
47
Economics of NGCC with Carbon Storage
7
"Crossover point"
for CO2 storage
5
(292 $/tonne C
at 3.0 $/GJ NG)
NGCC with
CO2 venting
3
0 50 100 150 200 250 300 350
6.0
CO2 storage crossover:
(94 $/tonne C)
5.5
4.5
0 20 40 60 80 100 120
• Tax needed to induce CO2 storage in coal IGCC is much lower than NGCC.
• But, how does coal IGCC+CO2 storage compete with NGCC+CO2 venting...
49
The “Breakeven NG Price” to Induce CO2 Storage
7.0
6.5
Electricity Cost (¢/kWh)
Coal IGCC with
CO2 storage
6.0
NGCC with CO2 storage crossover:
CO2 venting (94 $/tonne C,
5.5 6.2 $/GJ NG)
4.5
0 20 40 60 80 100 120
• In addition to the carbon tax, the NG price must exceed ~6 $/GJ for coal
IGCC+CO2 storage (...for any electricity+CO2 storage) to be economical!
50
The Economics of H2S-CO2 Co-Storage
7.0
5.0
Coal IGCC with
CO2 venting
4.5
0 20 40 60 80 100 120
• Co-storage reduces both the crossover carbon tax and breakeven NG price
somewhat, but the barrier to carbon storage remains quite high.
51
Breakeven NG Prices vs. Carbon Tax
6.5
5.0
Coal IGCC with
CO2 venting
4.5
0 20 40 60 80 100 120
• Without CO2 storage, coal IGCC competes with NGCC at NG~4.5 $/GJ; the
breakeven NG price rises with carbon tax due to coal’s high C content.
• Above the crossover tax, CO2 storage plants out-compete CO2 venting plants.
52
Economics of H2 from Coal with Carbon Storage
9.0
H2 from NG with
Hydrogen Cost ($/GJ, HHV)
8.5
CO2 storage
H2 from NG with
CO2 venting
8.0
6.0
0 20 40 60 80 100 120
Carbon Tax ($/tonne C)
• Both the carbon tax and breakeven NG price needed to induce coal H2 with
CO2 storage are much lower than those for electric power.
• Industrial H2 from coal might be the earliest CO2 storage opportunity.
53
Economics of H2 from Coal with H2S-CO2 Co-Storage
9.0
H2 from coal with
CO2 venting
Hydrogen Cost ($/GJ, HHV) 8.5
H2 from NG with
CO2 storage
8.0
H2 from NG with
CO2 venting
7.5
Co-storage crossover
6.5 (19 $/tonne C,
3.8 $/GJ NG,
4.2 ¢/kWh NGCC)
6.0
0 20 40 60 80 100 120
Carbon Tax ($/tonne C)
• H2S-CO2 co-storage further reduces both the crossover carbon tax and
breakeven NG price.
54
Breakeven NG Prices vs. Carbon Tax
6.5
CO2 storage
4.5
H 2 from Coal:
4.0
CO2 storage
3.5
CO2 venting H2S-CO2 co-storage
3.0
2.5
0 20 40 60 80 100 120
• Breakeven NG prices for coal H2 mirror those for IGCC (but are lower).
55
Conclusions
• If CCS is viable, fossil fuels will probably be used for the
production of low-carbon electricity and some H2. The cost of
avoided CO2 emissions is ~100 $/tonne C (200 $/tonne C with
respect to old plants).
• The imposition of a simple carbon tax will NOT induce IGCC
electricity with CCS at ~100 $/tonne C; a gas price of ~6 $/GJ
HHV is also required. Coal may disappear without a “feebate”
scheme or portfolio standard to induce IGCC CCS.
• Low-carbon H2 may be an early opportunity for CCS, in cases
where H2 distribution costs are small.
• H2 will be available at IGCC plants with CCS, reasonably near
demand centers. The penetration of H2 into heating and
transportation will depend on carbon taxes, public policy, and
competition from other low carbon energy carriers.
56
What is (and is Not) Needed?
• Long term CO2 storage in saline aquifers needs to be validated
with many, well instrumented demonstration projects in a variety of
geologic formations. A need for regulatory and legal frameworks,
and standards for well placement, injection, and monitoring.
• The safety (or lack thereof) of H2 vehicles need to demonstrated
by long term studies of H2 ICEV and FCEV fleets.
• FutureGen appears to be a good vehicle for testing and
demonstrating the H2 economy in its full extent.
57