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valuación de productos
derivados
⎛ i ⋅ n⎞
Dólares a recibir = 1⎜⎜1+ usd ⎟⎟
⎝ 360 ⎠
⎛
⎜
Pesos a recibir = 18.50 1+
( ) ( ) ⎞⎟ = 19.17063 MXP
.0725 180
⎜ 360 ⎟
⎝ ⎠
⎛
⎜ ( ) ( ) ⎞⎟ = 1.00500 USD
Dólares a recibir = 1 1+
.01 180
⎜ 360 ⎟
⎝ ⎠
Forwards y futuros de divisas
19.17063 19.17063
= 0.98311 USD = 1.03068 USD
19.50000 18.6000
19.17063
= 1.0050 USD
19.07525
Forwards y futuros de divisas
ago-14
Tipo de cambio spot 13.15000
Plazo 360
Tasa de interés en pesos 3.000%
Tasa de interés en dólares 0.100%
TCF = 13.5310
Ago 14 Ago 15
Forwards y futuros de divisas
nov-14
Tipo de cambio spot 13.65000
Plazo 270
Tasa de interés en pesos 3.150%
Tasa de interés en dólares 0.150%
TCF = 13.5310
0.4258
Forwards y futuros de divisas
ago-15
Tipo de cambio spot 17.00000
Plazo 180
Tasa de interés en pesos 3.700%
Tasa de interés en dólares 0.200%
TCF = 17.2972
Ago 15 Feb 16
Forwards y futuros de divisas
ene-17
Tipo de cambio spot 22.00000
Plazo 180
Tasa de interés en pesos 5.500%
Tasa de interés en dólares 0.750%
TCF = 22.5206
Ene 17 Jul 17
Forwards y futuros de divisas
0 30 90
6.95%
7.20%
Forwards y futuros de divisas
⎛ i n
( ) ⎞⎟⎛⎜1+ i ( n ) ⎞⎟ = ⎛⎜1+ i ( n ) ⎞⎟
⎜1+ 1 1 2 2 T T
⎜ 360 ⎟⎜ 360 ⎟ ⎜ 360 ⎟
⎝ ⎠⎝ ⎠ ⎝ ⎠
donde n1 + n2 = nT
Forwards y futuros de divisas
⎛ .0695 30
⎜1+ ( ) ⎞⎟⎛⎜1+ i (60) ⎞⎟ = ⎛⎜1+ .0720 (90) ⎞⎟
fwd
⎜ 360 ⎟⎜ 360 ⎟ ⎜ 360 ⎟
⎝ ⎠⎝ ⎠ ⎝ ⎠
⎡ ⎛ .0720 90 ⎞ ⎤
⎢ ⎜1+ ( ) ⎟ ⎥
⎢⎜ 360 ⎟ ⎥
⎢ ⎝ ⎠ ⎥ 360
ifwd = −1 = 7.2828%
⎢ ⎛ .0695 30 ⎞ ⎥ 60
⎢ ⎜1+ ( ) ⎟ ⎥
⎢⎜ 360 ⎟ ⎥
⎣⎝ ⎠ ⎦
Modelos de valuación de
opciones
Valor o prima de las opciones
(
= ∑ pago por ejercicio × Probabilidad )
( ) (
= 1.00 × 0.5 + 0.00 × 0.5 )
= 0.50 pesos, a valor presente
Valor teórico
Su
Sd
Modelo binomial
1
u=e σ Δt d=
u
t
Δt =
n
Modelo binomial
e iΔt − d
p=
u−d
Modelo binomial
(
Cu = max 0,Su − X ) (
Cd = max 0,Sd − X )
C=
( pC + (1− p) C )
u d
e iΔt
Modelo binomial
(
Pu = max 0, X − Su ) (
Pd = max 0, X − Sd )
P=
( pP + (1− p) P )
u d
e iΔt
Modelo binomial
u = e.20 .50
= 1.151910
1
d= = 0.868123
1.151910
0.50
Δt = = 0.50
1
Modelo binomial
e(.0425)(.50) − 0.868123
p= = 0.540385
1.151910 − 0.868123
1− p = 1− 0.540385 = 0.459615
Modelo binomial
115.190991
100.00
86.812345
Modelo binomial
( )
Cu = max 0,115.190991− 100.00 = 15.190991
( )
Cd = max 0,86.812345 − 100.00 = 0
C=
( ( 0.540385 ×15.190991) + (0.459615 × 0.00))
= 8.036383
e
(.0425)(.50)
Modelo binomial
( )
Pu = max 0,100.00 − 115.190991 = 0.00
( )
Pd = max 0,100.00 − 86.812345 = 13.187655
P=
( ( 0.540385 × 0.00) + (0.459615 ×13.187655))
= 5.933802
e
(.0425)(.50)
Modelo binomial
Suuu
Suu …
Su Suud
S Sud …
Sd Sudd
Sdd …
Sddd
Modelo binomial
u = e.25 .25
= 1.133148
1
d= = 0.882497
1.133148
0.75
Δt = = 0.25
3
Modelo binomial
e(.06)(.25) − 0.882497
p= = 0.529086
1.133148 − 0.882497
1− p = 1− 0.529086 = 0.470914
Modelo binomial
32.009811
28.248559
24.929266 24.929266
22.000000 22.000000
19.414932 19.414932
17.133617
15.120364
Modelo binomial
( )
Cuuu = max 0,32.009811− 20.00 = 12.009811
( )
Cuud = max 0,24.929266 − 20.00 = 4.929266
( )
Cudd = max 0,19.414932 − 20.00 = 0.00
( )
Cddd = max 0,15.120364 − 20.00 = 0.00
Modelo binomial
32.009811
12.009811
28.248559
24.929266 24.929266
4.929266
22.000000 22.000000
19.414932 19.414932
0.000000
17.133617
15.120364
0.000000
Modelo binomial
Cuu =
( ( 0.529086 ×12.009811) + (0.470914 × 4.929266))
= 8.546320
e
(.06)(.25)
Cud =
( ( 0.529086 × 4.929266) + (0.470914 × 0.00))
= 2.569176
e
(.06)(.25)
Cdd =
( ( 0.529086 × 0.00) + (0.470914 × 0.00))
= 0.00
e
(.06)(.25)
Modelo binomial
Cu =
( ( 0.529086 × 8.546320) + (0.470914 × 2.569176))
= 5.646266
e
(.06)(.25)
Cd =
( ( 0.529086 × 2.569176) + (0.470914 × 0.00))
= 1.339077
e
(.06)(.25)
C=
( ( 0.529086 × 5.646266) + (0.470914 ×1.339077))
= 3.564085
e
(.06)(.25)
Modelo binomial
32.009811
12.009811
28.248559
8.546320
24.929266 24.929266
5.646266 4.929266
22.000000 22.000000
3.564085 2.569176
19.414932 19.414932
1.339077 0.000000
17.133617
0.000000
15.120364
0.000000
Modelo binomial
( )
Puuu = max 0,20.00 − 32.009811 = 0.00
( )
Puud = max 0,20.00 − 24.929266 = 0.00
( )
Pudd = max 0,20.00 − 19.414932 = 0.585068
( )
Pddd = max 0,20.00 − 15.120364 = 4.879636
Modelo binomial
32.009811
0.000000
28.248559
24.929266 24.929266
0.000000
22.000000 22.000000
19.414932 19.414932
0.585068
17.133617
15.120364
4.879636
Modelo binomial
Puu =
( ( 0.529086 × 0.00) + (0.470914 × 0.00))
= 0.00
e
(.06)(.25)
Pud =
( ( 0.529086 × 0.00) + (0.470914 × 0.585068))
= 0.271415
e
(.06)(.25)
Pdd =
( ( 0.529086 × 0.585068) + (0.470914 × 4.879636))
= 2.568622
e
(.06)(.25)
Modelo binomial
P =
( ( 0.529086 × 0.00) + (0.470914 × 0.271415))
= 0.125910
u (.06)(.25)
e
P =
( ( 0.529086 × 0.271415) + (0.470914 × 2.568622))
= 1.333056
d (.06)(.25)
e
P=
( ( 0.529086 × 0.125910) + (0.470914 ×1.333056))
= 0.684034
e
(.06)(.25)
Modelo binomial
32.009811
0.000000
28.248559
0.000000
24.929266 24.929266
0.125910 0.000000
22.000000 22.000000
0.684034 0.271415
19.414932 19.414932
1.333056 0.585068
17.133617
2.568622
15.120364
4.879636
Modelo binomial
( )
Puuu = max 0,20.00 − 32.009811 = 0.00
( )
Puud = max 0,20.00 − 24.929266 = 0.00
( )
Pudd = max 0,20.00 − 19.414932 = 0.585068
( )
Pddd = max 0,20.00 − 15.120364 = 4.879636
Modelo binomial
32.009811
0.000000
28.248559
24.929266 24.929266
0.000000
22.000000 22.000000
19.414932 19.414932
0.585068
17.133617
15.120364
4.879636
Modelo binomial
⎛ ⎞
⎜
Puu = max ⎜ X − Suu,
( ( ) )
pPuuu + 1− p Puud ⎟
⎜ e iΔt ⎟⎟
⎝ ⎠
Modelo binomial
⎛
⎜
Puu = max ⎜ 20.00 − 28.248559,
(( ) (
0.529086 × 0.00 + 0.470914 × 0.00 )) ⎞⎟
(.06)(.25) ⎟⎟
⎜
⎝ e ⎠
( )
Puu = max −8.248559,0.00 = 0.00
Modelo binomial
⎛
⎜ ((
Pud = max ⎜ 20.00 − 22.00,
) (
0.529086 × 0.00 + 0.470914 × 0.585068 )) ⎞⎟
(.06)(.25) ⎟⎟
⎜
⎝ e ⎠
( )
Pud = max −2.00,0.271415 = 0.271415
Modelo binomial
⎛
⎜
Pdd = max ⎜ 20.00 − 17.133617,
(( ) (
0.529086 × 0.585068 + 0.470914 × 4.879636 )) ⎞⎟
(.06)(.25) ⎟⎟
⎜
⎝ e ⎠
( )
Pdd = max 2.866383,2.568622 = 2.866383
⎛
⎜ ((
Pu = max ⎜ 20.00 − 24.929266,
) ( )) ⎞⎟
0.529086 × 0.00 + 0.470914 × 0.287751
(.06)(.25) ⎟⎟
⎜
⎝ e ⎠
( )
Pu = max −4.929266,0.125910 = 0.125910
Modelo binomial
⎛
⎜ ((
Pd = max ⎜ 20.00 − 19.414932,
) (
0.529086 × 0.271415 + 0.470914 × 2.866383 )) ⎞⎟
(.06)(.25) ⎟⎟
⎜
⎝ e ⎠
( )
Pd = max 0.585068,1.471188 = 1.471188
Modelo binomial
⎛
⎜ ((
P = max ⎜ 20.00 − 22.00,
) (
0.529086 × 0.125910 + 0.470914 ×1.471188 )) ⎞⎟
(.06)(.25) ⎟⎟
⎜
⎝ e ⎠
( )
P = max −2.00,0.748115 = 0.748115
Modelo binomial
32.009811
0.000000
28.248559
0.000000
24.929266 24.929266
0.125910 0.000000
22.000000 22.000000
0.748115 0.271415
19.414932 19.414932
1.471188 0.585068
17.133617
2.866383
15.120364
4.879636
Modelo binomial
( )N d
−i t
( )
C = SN d1 − Xe ( )
2
( ) N −d − SN −d
−i t
P = Xe ( )2 1 ( )
Modelo Black & Scholes
⎛S⎞ ⎛ σ2⎞
ln ⎜ ⎟ + ⎜⎜ i +
⎝X⎠ ⎝
()
⎟⎟ t
2⎠
d1 =
σ t
d2 = d1 − σ t
Modelo Black & Scholes
( ) ( )
N −d1 = 1− N d1
( ) ( )
N −d2 = 1− N d2
Modelo Black & Scholes
Se calculan d1 y d2:
⎛ 2⎞
⎛ 22.00 ⎞ ⎜ ( )
0.25 ⎟
ln ⎜ ⎟ + ⎜ 0.06 +
⎝ 20.00 ⎠ ⎜ 2 ⎟
(
⎟ 0.75 )
⎝ ⎠
d1 = = 0.756318
0.25 0.75
( )
N d1 = DISTR.NORM(0.756318,0,1,1) = 0.775271
( )
N d2 = DISTR.NORM(0.539812,0,1,1) = 0.705337
Modelo Black & Scholes
( )
N −d1 = 1− 0.775271= 0.224729
( )
N −d2 = 1− 0.705337 = 0.294663
Modelo Black & Scholes
( )( ) ( ) (
C = 22.00 0.775271 − 20.00 e−0.06×0.75 0.705337 )
C = 3.5700
( ) ( ) ( )(
P = 20.00 e−0.06×0.75 0.294663 − 22.00 0.224729 )
P = 0.6899
Modelo Black & Scholes
−iusd t ( ) N d − Xe−imxp(t) N d
C = Se ( )1 ( )2
( ) N −d − Se−iusd (t) N −d
−imxp t
P = Xe ( )
2 ( )
1
Modelo Black & Scholes
⎛S⎞ ⎛ σ2⎞
ln ⎜ ⎟ + ⎜⎜ imxp − iusd +
⎝X⎠ ⎝ 2⎠
()
⎟⎟ t
d1 =
σ t
d2 = d1 − σ t
Modelo Black & Scholes
( ) ( )
N −d1 = 1− N d1
( ) ( )
N −d2 = 1− N d2
Modelo Black & Scholes
Se calculan d1 y d2:
⎛ 2⎞
⎛ 18.5225 ⎞ ⎜ ( )
0.17 ⎟
ln ⎜ ⎟ + ⎜ 0.0450 − 0.0050 +
⎝ 18.5000 ⎠ ⎜ 2 ⎟
(
⎟ 1.00 )
⎝ ⎠
d1 = = 0.327444
0.17 1.00
( )
N d1 = DISTR.NORM(0.327444,0,1,1) = 0.628334
( )
N d2 = DISTR.NORM(0.157444,0,1,1) = 0.562553
Modelo Black & Scholes
( )
N −d1 = 1− 0.628334 = 0.371666
( )
N −d2 = 1− 0.562553 = 0.437447
Modelo Black & Scholes
( ) ( ) ( ) (
C = 18.5225 e−0.005×1.00 0.628334 − 18.50 e−0.045×1.00 0.562553 )
C = 1.6310
( ) ( ) ( ) (
P = 18.50 e−0.045×1.00 0.437447 − 18.5225 e−0.005×1.00 0.371666 )
P = 0.8868
Modelo Black & Scholes