Bob Mitt Els Dorf

DEALING WITH
PROJECTS IN A
VUCA WORLD
Presented by: Bob Mittelsdorf BSc, MBA
SPMI Regional Conference 2016
11 March 2016
Bob Mittelsdorf, BSc, MBA
 Studied Architecture at Kent State University, Ohio, USA
 BSc, University of the State of New York
 MBA, National University of Singapore
 Masters Certificate in Project Management, George Washington University
 30+ years experience in the management of large construction projects in
Singapore, Malaysia, Thailand, Indonesia, Macau and Taiwan
 Clients who have benefited from Bob’s views on how to deal with the
complexities of project management include: ABB, ARAMCO, BASF, BeiHang
University (Beijing), BP, CAAS, Guinness Anchor Brewery, Honeywell, HP, Intel,
Jurong Engineering Limited, Jurong Town Corporation, Kingsmen, KPC/KNPC,
M+W, Maxis, Microsoft, MMHE, Motorola, NCR/Teradata, Otis Elevators, P&G,
Petrodar, Qatar Gas, SAP, Shell, Singapore MinDef, Singapore Tourism Board,
SingTel, Sun Microsystems, Syngenta, Tongji University (Shanghai), the United
States Air Force, the United States Marine Corp Community Services,
Volkswagen, Zamil Steel, and many others.
Dealing With Projects in a VUCA World © 2016 RP Mittelsdorf
2
Contents
1. What is V.U.C.A.?
2. The Relationship Between VUCA and Risk
3. Dealing with VUCA
 Bob Johansen’s 10 Leadership ‘Skills’
 Bas de Baat’s Key Actions

3
What is VUCA?
4
Volatility
 the propensity for changing from one

state to another.
 the rate, amount, and magnitude of
change.

5
Uncertainty
 the lack of specific information.

 the amount of unpredictability
inherent in issues and events.

6
Complexity
 the number of components and

relationships between components in
a system.
 the amount of dependency and
interactive effect of multiple factors
and drivers.

7
Ambiguity
 situations or information that can be

interpreted in different ways.
 the degree to which information,
situations, and events can be
interpreted in multiple ways

8
1953 Lithograph
“Relativity”
M. C. Escher
Ambiguity

9
Ambiguity

10
VUCA Impact
Can create fear, risk-aversion and a
Volatility
‘circle-the-wagons’ mentality.
Can create futile efforts on excessive data
Uncertainty gathering and analysis, plus a tendency to
invest excessively (bullet proofing).
Can create a desire to look for black and
Complexity white solutions that are often erroneous, or
scapegoats to blame.
Can induces doubt, distrust and hesitancy;
Ambiguity
can impede decision-making and change.

11
VUCA Prime
a clear statement of where
Volatility Vision an organization is headed.
Johansen, Bob. Get There Early

the deliberate ability to
Uncertainty Understanding
“stop, look, and listen.”
the deliberate effort to make
Complexity Clarity “sense of the chaos.”
the ability to communicate
with people and across
Ambiguity Agility organizations instantly, and
to move quickly in applying
solutions.
12
The Relationship Between VUCA and Risk
13
A VUCA Interpretation of Risk
In a project environment, risks are due to:
 Volatilities (rapidly or continuously changing conditions),
 Uncertainties (lack of information or unpredictable
conditions),
 Complexities (the number of stakeholders and the
number of interactions), and

 Ambiguities (the different plausible interpretations of
available information).

14
Risk Management Process & VUCA
Reduces ambiguity by clear

Risk
definition in the description of
Identification
the risk events.
Reduces uncertainty in
Risk Analysis probability and impact of the
risk events.
Risk Brings clarity to the myriad of
Prioritization risk events.
15
Dealing with VUCA
• Bob Johansen’s 10 Leadership ‘Skills’

• Bas de Baat’s Key Actions
16
Bob Johansen’s 10 Leadership ‘Skills’
Johansen’s 10 Leadership ‘Skills’ as
they apply to project managers
facing the VUCA world.
17
10 Leadership ‘Skills’ for PMs
1. Maker Instinct 7. Quiet
2. Clarity Transparency
After: Leaders Make the Future,

3. Dilemma Flipping 8. Rapid
Prototyping
4. Immersive
Smart-Mob
Bob Johansen
9.
Learning Ability
Organizing
5. Bio-Empathy
10. Commons
6. Constructive Creating
Depolarizing
18
1. Maker Instinct

Exploiting your inner drive to build and
grow things.
Bob Johansen
19
Maker Instinct
 PMs should use their maker instinct by sharing
what they make and inspire others to
contribute and succeed.
 They should have a commitment to build and
grow ideas, connecting this energy with others.
 PMs should use this skill to make (and remake)
project teams, applying their curiosity about

how things work to improve them.

20
Maker Instinct
 PMs need both a can-do and a can-make spirit.
The maker instinct separates leaders from the
powerless.
 It isn’t about being “arty”, it is about creating
or growing a new thing – whatever that is.
 PMs must be very clear about what they are
doing, but be flexible about how it gets done.

21
2. Clarity

Seeing through confusion and
contradiction. PMs must be very clear
about what they are doing
Bob Johansen
22
Plans
Everybody has a plan until

they get hit. Then, like a rat,
they stop in fear and freeze.
- Mike Tyson

23
Clarity vs. Certainty
Clarity Certainty
Does not consider other points
Includes curiosity about other
of view as having any merit or
points of view.
value.
Includes knowing what it is that Does not think about what is
you don’t know, and trying to not known, nor considers it
do something about it. needed.
Is expressed in narratives and Is expressed in rules and
stories. absolute shalls.
Is resilient. Is brittle.
24
Clarity vs. Certainty
More important than the

quest for certainty is the
quest for clarity.
- Francois Gautier

25
Commander’s Intent
“The commander's intent describes the desired
Headquarters Department of the Army.

end state. It is a concise expression of the
purpose of the operation and must be
Field Manual 100-5.

understood two echelons below the issuing
commander. . . It is the single unifying focus for
all subordinate elements. Its purpose is to focus
subordinates on the desired end state … on
what has to be accomplished in order to
achieve success, even when the plan and
concept of operations no longer apply…”
26
Plans
Plans are worthless, but

planning is everything.
- Dwight D Eisenhower

27
“Cheshire Puss”, said Alice, rather timidly,
“Would you tell me, please, which way I ought
“Alice meets the Cheshire Cat”,

to go from here?”
“That depends a good deal on where you want to
by: John Tenniel

get to,” said the Cat.
“I don't much care where,” said Alice.
“Then it doesn't matter which way you go,” said
the Cat.
“--- so long as I get SOMEWHERE”, Alice added
as an explanation.
“Oh, you’re sure to do that”, said the Cat, “if you
only walk long enough”.
28
3. Dilemma Flipping

Turning a dilemma into an advantage or
opportunity.
Bob Johansen
29
Dilemmas
The test of a first-rate

intelligence is to hold two
opposing ideas in mind at
the same time and still retain
the ability to function.
- F. SCOTT FITZGERALD
30
Problems vs. Dilemmas
We are moving from a world of
problems, which demand speed,
analysis, and elimination of
uncertainty to solve, to a world of
dilemmas, which demand patience,
sense-making, and an engagement
of uncertainty.
- Denise Caron, Transformative
Technology Consultant
31
Dilemma: a VUCA Concept
 A dilemma is a problem that cannot be solved and
will not go away.
Johansen, Bob. Get There Early

 Dilemma “flipping” is the ability to turn dilemmas
into advantages and opportunities.
 Characteristics of a dilemma:
 Unsolvable  Confusing
 Recurrent  Puzzling
 Complex and messy  Threatening
 Potentially positive

32
Dilemma Flipping
 You must be able to deal with the process of
puzzling, not just putting the puzzle pieces
together.

33
3 Steps for Dilemma Flipping
1. If you are not sure if it’s a
dilemma or a problem, assume it’s

a dilemma.
2. Immerse yourself in the dilemma.
Bob Johansen
3. Explore different ways to turn
(“flip”) it to a more positive
direction.
34
Proactive vs. Reactive
x
REACTIVE
CREATIVE
35
Six Dilemma Flipping Techniques
Navigating Complex Challenges. Charles Palus & David Horth

1. Stand in different places.
After: The Leader’s Edge: Six Creative Competencies for

2. Use the lenses of other
domains.
3. Ask powerful questions.

36
Six Dilemma Flipping Techniques
Navigating Complex Challenges. Charles Palus & David Horth

4. Foster new knowledge.
After: The Leader’s Edge: Six Creative Competencies for

5. Create an innovation journal.
6. Change the pace of attention.

37
4. Immersive Learning Ability

Immersion in an unfamiliar environment to
learn in a first-person way.
Bob Johansen
38
Gaming and Simulations
 Gaming and simulations enable learning.
 They date back to 1957 to the Rand
Corporation.
 Allow practice in a non-threatening
environment, and experimentation.
 Can be used to demonstrate concepts, and
generate different perspectives.

39
Modeling Examples
 Earthquake performance simulation
 Models of buildings
 Atmospheric models for weather forecasting
 Climate models to predict climate change
 Agent-based modelling to simulate social

interactions in artificial Intelligence

40
Models
Essentially, all models are

wrong, but some are useful.
- George Edward Pelham Box

41
5. Bio-Empathy

Seeing things from nature’s point of view.
Understanding, respecting, and learning
from its patterns.
Bob Johansen
42
Nature is Frugal
Nature is frugal. Of all the possible
The Computation Beauty of Nature: Computer
Systems and Adaptation, Gary William Flake

rules that could be used to govern
Explorations of Fractals, Chaos, Complex

interactions among agents … nature
… uses the simplest. More than that,
the same rules are repeatedly used
in very different places.
- Gary William Flake
43
Frugality
 Frugality is the quality of being sparing, thrifty,
prudent or economical in the use and
consumption of resources.
 Avoiding waste, lavishness or extravagance.
 It’s not about being cheap, but conserving and
wisely using resources. This sometimes means

spending more now to save money in the long
run.

44
Why Do We Do Projects?
Projects are done to create or preserve VALUE.
 CONTRACTORS carry out projects as a means of
generating REVENUE directly: do the job  get paid.
 DEVELOPERS (and many others) carry out projects as
a means of generating REVENUE indirectly: do the job
 create something to sell  sell it  get paid
 Some types of projects are even more indirect: do the
job  improve the way the organization works  save
money
What about other types of “value”?
45
How Dealing
do we measure
With Projects “intrinsic”
in a VUCA World value?
© 2016 RP Mittelsdorf
6. Constructive Depolarizing

Calming tense situations where differences
dominate and communication has broken
down.
Bob Johansen
Bringing people from divergent cultures
together towards positive engagement.
46
Dilemma or Conflict?

47
Sources of Conflict on Projects
Organizational: Team:
 Functional vs. project structures  Schedules
 Status and authority of staff,  Priorities
functional managers and PM’s  Administrative
 Competition over resources procedures
 Communication needs  Technical
recommendations
 Resources
Individual:
 Goals
 Values
 Methods
48
Conflict & Organizational Effectiveness
Hig h
L e v e l of C o n f li c t
Productivity
L ow
Apathy Chaos
Organizational
Effect

49
Pivotal Thinking
Divergent Thinking - Generates ideas by
exploring many possible solutions. Typically
spontaneous, free-flowing, and 'non-linear‘.
Many possible solutions are explored and
unexpected connections are drawn.
Cognitive Thinking - Follows logical steps to
arrive at one solution, which in some cases is a
‘correct’ solution.

50
Divergent vs. Cognitive Thinking
Divergent Thinking Cognitive Thinking

51
7. Quiet Transparency

Being open and authentic about what
matters, while not being overly self-
promoting.
Bob Johansen
52
Command-and-Control vs.
Commander’s Intent
 “Command-and-control” style of leadership
operates on a “need-to-know” basis.
 “Commander’s intent” style of leadership
requires clarity about desired outcome, but

flexibility about methods to achieve it.

53
Delegation Difficulties
 We want to remain comfortable, making the
same decisions we have always made.
 We believe we can do a better job ourselves.
 We don't want to risk losing any power and

stature (ironically, we can lose these if we don't
learn to delegate effectively).
 We don't want to risk giving authority to
subordinates in case they fail and impair the
project.
54
Humility
Success as a Navy SEAL leader requires
After: Extreme Ownership: How U.S. Navy SEALs


Lead and Win, Jacko Willink & Leif Babin

recognizing that you don‘t have the solution
to every problem.
 Fail to recognize that, and you're likely to fall
flat on your face and fail.

55
Attitudes That Defeat Good Decisions
 Failure to recognise a problem (or dilemma) and
acknowledge an issue.
 Attitude that anyone who says anything else is
wrong and need to be corrected.
 Defensive mode: justifying, explaining and
defending rather than listening to what others are
saying.
 Inability to change even in the face of evidence
showing the decision is wrong.
56
8. Rapid Prototyping

The ability to create quick, early versions
of innovations, with the expectation that
later successes will require early failures.
Bob Johansen
57
Rapid Prototyping
 Prototypes provide a way to get an idea in front
of potential end-users and key stakeholders.
 Getting it out of the designer's head and into a
demonstrable format minimizes initial
shortcomings and misplaced design assumptions.
 What and how to mock up depends on the
product or service, the questions to be answered,
and resources available.
 Effective results can be obtained from various
levels of fidelity.
58
"Fail Fast, Fail Early, Fail Often"
 Thomas Edison failed thousands of times in his
search for the correct filament for the light bulb.
 Kleenex tissues were originally created to help
women remove make-up.
 WD40’s name comes from the number of
attempts to get the water displacement formula
correct.
 Post-It notes used a failed formula for a super-
strong adhesive that came out as a "low-tack",
reusable, pressure-sensitive adhesive.
59
9. Smart-Mob Organizing

Creating, engaging with, and nurturing
purposeful business or social change
networks.
Bob Johansen
60
Those who do not remember
the past are condemned to
repeat it.
- George Santayana

61
Learning From Our Mistakes
Whether an organization has a single Project
Manager managing one project, or a group of
PM’s who manage multiple projects, the value of
capturing lessons-learned and sharing them must
not be underestimated.

62
What is a PM-COP?
 A community of practice is a self-improvement
group in an organization, and could be likened
to an internal professional association
 A PM-COP consists of project managers from
across an entire organization

63
What does a PM-COP do?
 Determines the critical learning needs for the PM’s in
an organization
 Formalizes solutions that are most useful for the
practitioners
 Actions and solutions could include:
• Message boards or other communication databases
• Skill-improvement meetings
• Repositories for tools, templates, best practices, etc.
• Recommendations for PM process improvements
• Coaching or mentoring programs

64
10. Commons Creating

Seeding, nurturing and growing shared
assets that benefit everyone while allowing
healthy competition at a higher level.
Bob Johansen
65
"Commons"
 Based on the English legal concept of common
land.
 Common land was owned collectively, by a
legal entity, the crown or a single person. It
was subject to different forms of regulated
usage: grazing of livestock, hunting, etc.
 In modern economic theory it refers to cultural
and natural resources accessible to all.

66
What is “Commons Creating”
 This seminar is an excellent example of
“commons creating”.
 The information shared will help to grow the
project management community, not just

benefit the individual or organization.
 In helping grow the community, the individuals
will also benefit.

67
Bas de Baat’s Key Actions
Key actions PMs should be taking when
in a VUCA environment...” LinkedIn Pulse

After: Bas de Baat, “How to lead a project
you have the responsibility to deliver a
project or business initiative.
68
Vision
 Understand the organization's vision.

 Check alignment of vision with the project’s
goals and strategy.
 Work with stakeholders to clarify and

eliminate any discordance.

69
Vision
 Develop a clear scope statement that

identifies the deliverables and how they meet
project and business goals and objectives.

70
Understanding
 Identify and understand the internal and

external forces that can cause turbulence to
your project.

71
Understanding
 Initiate and maintain a robust risk

management process.
 Ensure that all project team members

understand their roles and responsibilities.
 Keep it practical and realistic, but make sure

it gets used.

72
Clarity
 Enlist the aid of SMEs in areas where the

VUCA pressures are high.
 Leverage their knowledge and experience to

identify risks and issues.

73
Clarity
 Use tools, techniques, methods, and standards

that are robust, yet flexible enough to
accommodate any change in approach.

74
Clarity
 Deal resolutely with forces that are in your

scope of control and can create unnecessary
“sworl”.
 Understand the forces that exacerbate chaos.

75
Agility
 Communicate with both internal and external

stakeholders on a regular basis.
 Update them on the vision, goals, strategy,

plan and status of the project.

76
Agility
 Strive to be "ahead of the curve" and always

be alert.
 Have alternative strategies and contingency

plans ready to deploy, if needed.

77
email: r_mittelsdorf@mittconsult.com
78
79
Bibliography
1. de Baat, Bas, “How to lead a project in a VUCA
environment...” LinkedIn Pulse, 28 November 2014
2. Flake, Gary William, The Computation Beauty of Nature:
Computer Explorations of Fractals, Chaos, Complex Systems and
Adaptation, A Bradford Book, 1998
3. Gleik, James, CHAOS: Making a New Science, Abacus, 1993
4. Headquarters Department of the Army. Field Manual 100-5.
Washington, DC, 14 June 1993
5. Johansen, Bob. Get There Early. San Francisco, CA. Berrett-
Koehler Publishers, 2007.

80
Bibliography
6. Johansen, Bob. Leaders Make the Future. San Francisco, CA.
Berrett-Koehler Publishers, 2012.
7. Kepner, Charles H. & Tregoe, Benjamin B., The New Rational
Manager, Princeton Research Press, 1981
7. Krupp, Steven & Schoemaker, Paul J. H., Winning the Long
Game, Public Affairs, 2014
8. Lewis, James P., Project Planning Scheduling & Control. New
York, NY. McGraw-Hill, 2001
9. Longman, Andrew & Mullins, Jim, The Rational Project
Manager, John Wiley & Sons, 2005

81
Bibliography
10. Palus, Charles J. & Horth, David M., The Leader’s Edge: Six
Creative Competencies for Navigating Complex Challenges.
San Francisco, CA. Jossey-Bass and The Center for Creative
Leadership, 2002.
11. Pascale, Richard T., Millemann, Mark & Gioja, Linda, Surfing
the Edge of Chaos: The Laws of Nature and the New Laws of
Business, Crown Business, 2001
12. Schar, Mark, “Pivot Thinking and the Differential Sharing of
Information Within New Product Development Teams”,
Doctoral dissertation Stamford University, 2011

82
Bibliography
13. Skaug, Ingar, “Breaking Free in Turbulent Times - The
Intersection of Turbulence, Innovation and Leadership:
Unleashing Creativity and Driving Positive Change”, Business
Leadership Review, IV:III, Association of MBAs, July 2007
14. Ward, J. LeRoy. Dictionary of Project Management Terms.
Arlington, VA. ESI International, 2008.
15. Willink, Jacko, & Babin, Leif, Extreme Ownership: How U.S.
Navy SEALs Lead and Win, St. Martin's Press, 2015

83
Questions & Answers About VUCA
Q: Isn’t dealing with VUCA just the same as risk
management?
A: No. VUCA is like risk on steroids.

84
Questions & Answers About VUCA
Q: Is VUCA an new phenomena?
A: No. The term VUCA originated in the 1990s at the
US Army War College, leaders (and project
managers) have always faced these problems.
Building the Pyramids of Egypt and the Great Wall
of China, Admiral Zheng He’s voyages, and
countless other historical undertakings also faced
volatility, uncertainty, complexity and ambiguity.

85

Bob Mitt Els Dorf

Caricato da

Informazioni sul documento

Copyright

Formati disponibili

Condividi questo documento

Condividi o incorpora il documento

Opzioni di condivisione

Hai trovato utile questo documento?

Questo contenuto è inappropriato?

Copyright:

Formati disponibili

Bob Mitt Els Dorf

Caricato da

Copyright:

Formati disponibili

DEALING WITH

 Bas de Baat’s Key Actions

Dealing With Projects in a VUCA World © 2016 RP Mittelsdorf

 the propensity for changing from one

Dealing With Projects in a VUCA World © 2016 RP Mittelsdorf

 the lack of specific information.

Dealing With Projects in a VUCA World © 2016 RP Mittelsdorf

 the number of components and

Dealing With Projects in a VUCA World © 2016 RP Mittelsdorf

 situations or information that can be

Dealing With Projects in a VUCA World © 2016 RP Mittelsdorf

Dealing With Projects in a VUCA World © 2016 RP Mittelsdorf

Dealing With Projects in a VUCA World © 2016 RP Mittelsdorf

Dealing With Projects in a VUCA World © 2016 RP Mittelsdorf

Johansen, Bob. Get There Early

 Uncertainties (lack of information or unpredictable

number of interactions), and

Dealing With Projects in a VUCA World © 2016 RP Mittelsdorf

Reduces ambiguity by clear

• Bob Johansen’s 10 Leadership ‘Skills’

After: Leaders Make the Future,

After: Leaders Make the Future,

project teams, applying their curiosity about

Dealing With Projects in a VUCA World © 2016 RP Mittelsdorf

doing, but be flexible about how it gets done.

Dealing With Projects in a VUCA World © 2016 RP Mittelsdorf

After: Leaders Make the Future,

Everybody has a plan until

Dealing With Projects in a VUCA World © 2016 RP Mittelsdorf

More important than the

Dealing With Projects in a VUCA World © 2016 RP Mittelsdorf

Headquarters Department of the Army.

Field Manual 100-5.

Plans are worthless, but

Dealing With Projects in a VUCA World © 2016 RP Mittelsdorf

“Alice meets the Cheshire Cat”,

by: John Tenniel

After: Leaders Make the Future,

The test of a first-rate

Johansen, Bob. Get There Early

 Complex and messy  Threatening

Dealing With Projects in a VUCA World © 2016 RP Mittelsdorf

Dealing With Projects in a VUCA World © 2016 RP Mittelsdorf

After: Leaders Make the Future,

Navigating Complex Challenges. Charles Palus & David Horth

After: The Leader’s Edge: Six Creative Competencies for

3. Ask powerful questions.

Dealing With Projects in a VUCA World © 2016 RP Mittelsdorf

Navigating Complex Challenges. Charles Palus & David Horth

After: The Leader’s Edge: Six Creative Competencies for

6. Change the pace of attention.

Dealing With Projects in a VUCA World © 2016 RP Mittelsdorf

After: Leaders Make the Future,

generate different perspectives.

Dealing With Projects in a VUCA World © 2016 RP Mittelsdorf

 Atmospheric models for weather forecasting

 Climate models to predict climate change

 Agent-based modelling to simulate social

Dealing With Projects in a VUCA World © 2016 RP Mittelsdorf

Essentially, all models are

Dealing With Projects in a VUCA World © 2016 RP Mittelsdorf

After: Leaders Make the Future,

Nature is frugal. Of all the possible

The Computation Beauty of Nature: Computer