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The margin of error for the first survey is +/- 3.29% In Toronto:
and is accurate 19 times out of 20. Dr. Joseph Angolano, Vice President
joseph@mainstreetresearch.ca
(full methodology appears at the end of this
report) Find us online at:
www.mainstreetresearch.ca
twitter.com/MainStResearch
facebook.com/mainstreetresearch
BC NDP TAKE A SLENDER LEAD OVER BC LIBERALS
21 January 2018 (Vancouver, BC) – The governing British Columbia NDP have opened a slight lead over the
opposition BC Liberals, but the gap between the two parties remains smaller than the margin of error.
Those are the findings from Mainstreet Research’s latest UltraPoll, a conglomeration of ten provincial polls.
The poll surveyed 887 British Columbians between January 13th and 14th 2019. The poll has a margin of
error of +/- 3.29% and is accurate 19 times out of 20.
“John Horgan and Andrew Wilkinson remain deadlocked among British Columbians with neither of them
being able to get a definitive upper hand over the other,” said Quito Maggi, President and CEO of Mainstreet
Research.
“That said, it’s Advantage NDP right now and they have the biggest lead that we have found in some time.”
Among decided and leaning voters, the governing NDP led by John Horgan lead with 37% support (+4.7%
from Mainstreet’s November poll), while the opposition Liberals with Andrew Wilkinson at the helm have 34.9%
(+1%). The BC Green Party with Andrew Weaver as leader have 14.6% (-3.6%), while the BC Conservatives
with interim leader Scott Anderson have 11.2% (-1.4%).
“The NDP gains are almost exclusively due to a dip in Green Party support, but we do note that the BC
Conservatives are doing much better in the interior compared to their levels of support in the rest of province,”
added Maggi.
“Should some of that BC Conservative support go to the Liberals in an election, the Liberals would then take
a lead.”
The poll also found that Horgan was the only leader that has a positive favourability rating among all the party
leaders, but his rating is not that impressive with the province evenly split on their opinions of the Premier.
Horgan has a +0.3% favourability rating, while Wilkinson has a -6.6% rating. Weaver has a negative rating of
-4%, while Anderson has a rating of -5.2%.
“It is rather clear that British Columbians are not really feeling inspired by their choice of party leaders,” Maggi
concluded.
-30-
14.3%
1.7%
31.8%
8.5%
All Voters
12.8%
All Voters
Decided and Leaning Voters
30.8%
8.2%2.2%
1.3%
11.2%
NDP BC Liberals Greens BC Conservatives
10.2%
31.5%
Another Party Undecided
37%
14.6%
All Voters
14.6% Decided and Leaning Voters
34.2%
34.9%
37.0%
34.9%
14.6%
All
11.2%
2.2%
40.2%
Vancouver CMA
35.9%
12.6%
9.5%
1.8%
44.4%
Vancouver Island
21.2%
23.0%
9.5%
2.0%
27.0%
41.3%
BC Interior
13.4%
15.3%
3.0%
0 5 10 15 20 25 30 35 40 45
Another Party
Do you have a favourable or unfavourable
opinion of the following party leaders?
ohn Horgan Andrew Wilkinson
7.5%
12.8%
17.1%
29.7%
33.5%
John Horgan Andrew Wilkinson
23.7%
46.4%
9.5% 6.7%
12.7%
Favourable Unfavourable Not Sure Not Familiar Favourable Unfavourable Not Sure Not Familiar
21%
26% 11.9%
32.8%
26.4%
41.3% 25%
31.3% 55.4%
This survey was conducted by Mainstreet Research and have not been sponsored by any third-party
organization.
The sampling frame for the survey was derived from both a national telephone directory compiled
by Mainstreet Research from commerical available sources and random digit dialing. The survey
that dialed from the directory was conducted as a stratified dial of Greater Vancouver, Vancouver
Island, and the rest of British Columbia. In the case of random digit dials, respondents were asked
the additional question of what region of the country they resided in. In each case, respondents were
dialed at random.
At least two attempts were made to complete an interview at every sampled telephone number. The
calls were staggered over times of day and two days to maximize the chances of making contact
with a potential respondent. The previous statement also applies to the second survey except the
survey was conducted over one day. Interviewing was also spread as evenly as possible across the
field period.
The questionnaire used in this survey is available in this report and online at www.mainstreetresearch.
ca. Questions are asked as they appear in the release document. If a question is asked of a subset of
the sample a descriptive note is added in parenthesis preceding the question.
The sample of the survey was weighted by population parameters from the Canada 2016 Census for
adults 18 years of age or older in Canada. The population parameters used for weighting are age,
gender, and region.
The margin of error is +/- 3.29% at the 95% confidence level. Margins of error are higher in each
subsamples.
The margins of error for each subsample is as following: Males: +/- 4.55%, Females: +/- 4.76%, 18-
34 age group: +/- 8.7%, 35-49 age group: +/- 7.43%, 50-64 age group: +/- 5.87%, 65+ age group:
+/- 5.59%, Greater Vancouver: +/- 5.49%, Vancouver Island: +/- 7.32%, Rest of British Columbia: +/-
4.97%.
In addition to sampling error, one should bear in mind that the wording of questions and practical
difficulties in conducting surveys can introduce error or bias into the findings of opinion polls.
Moreover, all sample surveys and polls may be subject to other sources of error, including, but not
limited to coverage error, and measurement error.