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Practice Set 2

MAL 213 - Probability & Statistics January 16, 2019

 1. Two players A and B alternately roll a pair of unbiased dice. A wins if o n a throw he obtains exactly six points before B gets seven points, B winning in the opposite event. If A begins the game, prove that his probability of winning is 30/61. 2. In a certain community, it is found that 60% of all property owner s oppose an increase in the property tax while 80% of non-property owners favor it. If 6 5% of all registered voters are property owners, what proportion of registered vot ers favor the tax increase ? 3. A family has twins. It is known that one is a girl. What is the probability that both are girls ? 4. A family has twins. It is known that ﬁrst child is a girl. What is the probability that both are girls ? 5. Two fair dice are thrown. Let A denote the event that the sum of the dice is 7. Let B be the event that ﬁrst die equals 4 and let C be the event that second die equals 3. Show that A is independent of B and is also independent of C . But, A is not independent of B ∩ C . 6. A biased coin with probability of obtaining a Head equal to p > 0 is tossed repeatedly and independently until the ﬁrst head is observed. Using Total Probability Theorem calculate the probability that the ﬁrst head appears at an even numbered to ss. 7. Information is communicated digitally as a binary sequence known a s “bits”. However, the noise interference on the channel corrupts the signal, in that a digit transmitted as 0 is received as 1 with probability 1 − p , with a similar random corruption when the digit 1 is transmitted it is received 0 with probability again 1 − p . It has been observed that, across a large number of transmitted signals, the 0s and 1s are transmitted in the ratio 3 : 4. Given that the sequence 101 is received, what is the probability distributio n over transmitted signals? Assume that the transmission and reception processes ar e independent. 8. At Duke University, two students had received A’s in chemistry all semester, but on the night before the ﬁnal exam, they partied all night, woke up too late, and missed the exam. Their excuse to the professor was that they had a ﬂat tire on the way to school, and they

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asked if they could take a make-up test. The professor agreed, wrote out a test and sent the two to separate rooms to take it. The ﬁrst question (on one side of the paper) was worth 10 points, and they answered it easily. Then they ﬂipped the paper over and found the second question, worth 90 points: Which tire was it ? What is the probability that both students would say the same thing? I think it is 1/16. Is that rig ht?

9. Suppose A and B are independent events. Prove that following pairs of events are a lso independent

 (a) A c , B (b) A, B c (c) A c , B c

10. Consider the following data available on 20 emails.

S.No. Contains word “Oﬀer” Spam
1 yes
yes
2 no
yes
3 yes
yes
4 yes
yes
5 yes
yes
6 no
no
7 yes
no
8 yes
yes
9 yes
yes
10 yes
yes
11 yes
yes
12 no
yes
13 yes
yes
14 yes
yes
15 yes
yes
16 no
no
17 yes
no
18 yes
yes
19 no
yes
20 no
no

Suppose a new mail contains the word ‘Oﬀer’. What is the probability that it is a SPAM mail ? If the cutoﬀ probability for SPAM mail is 0.90, whether this new mail should go to SPAM folder or INBOX ?

11. Suppose you’re on a game show, and you’re given the choice of three doors. Behind one door is a car, behind the others, goats. You pick a door, say door no. 1, and the host, who knows what’s behind all the doors, opens another door, say do or no. 3, which has a goat. He then asks if you want to pick door no. 2? Should you switch ?

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