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Sunday Night
Decision Support Briefing #3 Current Hazards
As of: 600 AM Jan 19, 2019
Strong • Numerous downed snow/ice Entire Tri-State Region Sunday afternoon thru Sunday
covered tree limbs and power lines
Winds Night
• Heavy rain could cause urban, poor Freshwater - NE NJ, NYC Freshwater Flooding –Tonight into
Freshwater drainage, and small stream flooding metro and coast Sunday
and Coastal for NYC/NJ metro and coast Coastal – Highest threat
• Minor to Moderate coastal flooding across southern bays of W Coastal Flooding- During the
Flooding in vulnerable areas. (1-3 ft AGL) LI/NYC Sunday Morning High Tide
Flash freeze: NE NJ, NYC, NW Long Island , southern Lower Hudson Valley
and Southern CT .
None Limited Elevated Significant Extreme
Putnam
Torrington Hartford
Poughkeepsie Willimantic
Norwich
Middletown Waterbury
Carmel
Montague Danbury New London
New Haven
New City Bridgeport
West Milford
White Plains
Belvidere Paramus Montauk
Morristown
NYC Islip
Westhampton Precipitation
Newark Farmingdale Types
JFK Heavy Snow/Sleet and
New Brunswick Freezing Rain
Snow/Sleet changing to
Trenton Freehold Freezing rain and then
Current forecast is close to this scenario
If low pressure tracks farther south and east, possible rain
snow and ice accumulations would be higher Wintry Mix to Mostly
than currently forecast.
Rain
Weather Forecast Office Presentation Created
New York, NY Follow us on Twitter Follow us on Facebook 1/19/2019 6:19 AM
Most Likely Precipitation Types – Forecast Scenario 2
Putnam
Torrington Hartford
Poughkeepsie Willimantic
Norwich
Middletown Waterbury
Carmel
Montague Danbury New London
New Haven
New City Bridgeport
West Milford
White Plains
Belvidere Paramus Montauk
Morristown
NYC Islip
Westhampton Precipitation
Newark Farmingdale Types
JFK Heavy Snow/Sleet and
New Brunswick Freezing Rain
Snow/Sleet changing to
Trenton Freehold Freezing rain and then
If low pressure tracks farther south and east, possible rain
snow and ice accumulations would be higher
than currently forecast. Wintry Mix to Mostly
Rain
Weather Forecast Office Presentation Created
New York, NY Follow us on Twitter Follow us on Facebook 1/19/2019 6:19 AM
Heavy Snow and Sleet
Hazards:
Interior Lower Hudson Valley, interior NE NJ, and interior SW CT
6-10” of Snow and Sleet possible
Snowfall rates of 1-2”/hr early Sat Night
Vsby 1/4 mile or less
Impacts:
Potentially dangerous travel tonight through Sunday night, away from
immediate coast.
Numerous downed tree limbs and scattered power outages Sunday
afternoon into Sunday night, away from immediate coast.
Timing:
Most Likely Snow begins late this afternoon into early evening, becoming moderate
to heavy while transitioning to a wintry mix from south to north tonight
A period of moderate to heavy rain is likely late tonight into Sunday
morning along the coast. A transition back to a wintry mix is possible
down to the coast late Sunday morning into Sunday afternoon
Uncertainty/Scenarios
A storm track farther north and west would decrease snow and sleet
accumulation across the entire area, with little to no snow accumulation
along the immediate coast.
A storm track farther south and east would increase snow and sleet
accumulations down to the coast.
Weather Forecast Office Presentation Created
New York, NY Follow us on Twitter Follow us on Facebook 1/19/2019 6:19 AM
Probabilistic Heavy Snow and Sleet Accumulation
Snow and Sleet forecast would trend closer to Snow and Sleet forecast would trend closer to
this scenario if the storm tracks N and W of NYC this scenario if the storm tracks farther southeast
of Long Island
Hazards:
1/10 to 1/4 of ice for Northeastern NJ, Lower Hudson
Valley, and Interior Southern Connecticut
Locally ½ inch of ice possible
Few hundredths to 1/10” of ice across NE NJ, Northern
portions of NYC, NW Long Island, southern Lower
Hudson Valley and SW CT.
Impacts:
Numerous downed tree limbs and scattered power
outages possible Sunday afternoon into Sunday night
Icing on Untreated Surfaces
Dangerous travel tonight through Sunday night
Timing:
Freezing rain threat late tonight through Sunday morning
Uncertainty/Scenarios:
A storm track farther south and east would increase ice
accumulations down to the coast.
A storm track further north and west would mean less ice
accumulations across the interior and no ice further south.
This scenario is possible if the storm stays well southeast of Long Island
Impacts:
Minor flooding of urban and poor drainage
areas and roads
Minor flooding of quick responding small
streams and creeks in northeastern NJ is
possible.
Heavy rain during the times of high tide will
exacerbate flooding across low-lying coastal
areas Sunday morning
Timing:
Heaviest rain late tonight through Sunday
morning.
Hazards:
Northwest winds of 20 to 25 mph with
gusts 35 to 45 mph
Impacts:
Numerous ice and snow covered trees
Peak Wind Gust Image limbs and power lines could be downed
Scattered to Numerous power outages
Difficult travel conditions for high profile
vehicles
Timing:
Sunday Afternoon into Monday.
Uncertainty/Forecast Scenarios:
Depending on how quickly temperatures plummet
late Sunday morning into evening, there is
potential for a flash freeze across coastal portions
of the region, including NYC.
Weather Forecast Office Presentation Created
New York, NY Follow us on Twitter Follow us on Facebook 1/19/2019 6:19 AM
Coastal Flooding
Coastal Flood Hazards and Impacts:
Widespread minor to locally moderate
coastal flooding along the coast
Highest risk of moderate coastal flooding,
with inundation of 2 to 3 ft above ground,
mainly for vulnerable locales along the
southern bays of Queens and Nassau
counties
Several waterfront road closures
Minor damage to coastal properties
Heavy rain during the times of high tide will
exacerbate flooding Sunday morning
Timing:
During times of high tide Sunday Morning.
Facebook:
http://www.facebook.com/NWSNewYorkNY
Twitter:
Web:
http://www.twitter.com/NWSNewYorkNY
http://www.weather.gov/okx/
YouTube:
https://www.youtube.com/user/NWSNewYor
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