University Politehnica of Bucharest

Faculty of Automatic Control and Computers

Computer Science and Engineering Department

Diploma Thesis

Generation, simulation and

verification of the seismic
activity in the Vrancea region

by

Ioana Apetroaei

Supervisor: Associate Prof. Dr. Eng. Emil Sluşanschi,

Bucharest, July 2010

Contents

Contents i

List of Figures iii

List of Tables v

1 Introduction 2

2 State of the Art and Related Work 4

2.1 Vrancea seismic activity . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 4
2.2 Seismic cycle features . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 5
2.3 Burridge-Knopoff Model . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 7
2.4 Geodynamical model . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 8
2.4.1 Detachment Model . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 9
2.4.2 Delamination Model . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 10
2.5 Starting point . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 11
2.5.1 Earthquake vizualization . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 11
2.5.2 Earthquake simulation . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 11
2.5.3 The duration of the simulated seismic cycles . . . . . . . . . 12

3 Project implementation 13
3.1 Hardware and Software Configuration . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 13
3.2 Simulation model . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 14
3.3 Cellular Automaton methods . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 15
3.4 Simulation parameters . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 15
3.4.1 The initialization of the grid . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 17
3.4.2 Background events . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 17
3.4.3 Asperity type events . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 17
3.4.4 Percolation type events . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 19
3.5 Healing process . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 19

i
CONTENTS ii

4 Case studies 21
4.1 Gutenberg Richter Law . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 21
4.2 Real catalogue . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 22
4.2.1 Initialization . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 22
4.2.2 Reinitialization . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 23
4.2.3 Gutenberg-Richter law . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 25
4.2.4 Magnitude-events order . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 26
4.2.5 Numerical results . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 27
4.3 1000 trials . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 28
4.3.1 Initialization . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 28
4.3.2 Gutenberg-Richter law . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 29
4.3.3 Magnitude-events order . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 30
4.3.4 Numerical results . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 31

5 Conclusions 33

6 Future work 35

Bibliography 36
List of Figures

2.1 Successive cumulative processes in Vrancea as revealed by Benioffs curves. 7

2.2 Burridge-Knopoff Model. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 8
2.3 Detachment model. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 9
2.4 Delamination model. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 10
2.5 The duration of 10000 simulated seismic cycles. . . . . . . . . . . . . . 12

3.1 Neighbourhood types. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 15

3.2 The black cells influenced by the introduction of an gray cell. . . . . . 18

4.1 The cells from the real catalogue of earthquakes. . . . . . . . . . . . . 22

4.2 The grid in the moment the initialization is finished. . . . . . . . . . . 23
4.3 The clusters that were not destroyed in the previous seismic cycle. . . 23
4.4 The grid after the insertion of the earthquakes epicenter. . . . . . . . . 24
4.5 The grid after the reinitialization for a new seismic cycle. . . . . . . . 24
4.6 Gutenberg-Richter law for the first seismic cycle. . . . . . . . . . . . . 25
4.7 Gutenberg-Richter law for the second seismic cycle. . . . . . . . . . . . 25
4.8 Gutenberg-Richter law for the third seismic cycle. . . . . . . . . . . . 25
4.9 Gutenberg-Richter law for the fourth seismic cycle. . . . . . . . . . . . 25
4.10 Magnitudes-events order for the first seismic cycle. . . . . . . . . . . . 26
4.11 Magnitudes-events order for the second seismic cycle. . . . . . . . . . 26
4.12 Magnitudes-events order for the third seismic cycle. . . . . . . . . . . 26
4.13 Magnitudes-events order for the fourth seismic cycle. . . . . . . . . . . 26
4.14 Simulated catalogue. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 27
4.15 The cells randomly inserted-1000 trials. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 28
4.16 The grid in the moment the initialization is finished-1000 trials. . . . . 29
4.17 Gutenberg-Richter law for the first seismic cycle. . . . . . . . . . . . . 29
4.18 Gutenberg-Richter law for the second seismic cycle. . . . . . . . . . . . 29
4.19 Gutenberg-Richter law for the third seismic cycle. . . . . . . . . . . . 30
4.20 Gutenberg-Richter law for the fourth seismic cycle. . . . . . . . . . . . 30
4.21 Magnitude-events order for the first seismic cycle. . . . . . . . . . . . 30

iii
LIST OF FIGURES iv

4.22 Magnitude-events order for the second seismic cycle. . . . . . . . . . . 30

4.23 Magnitude-events order for the third seismic cycle. . . . . . . . . . . . 31
4.24 Magnitude-events order for the fourth seismic cycle. . . . . . . . . . . 31
List of Tables

2.1 Major earthquakes that occured in the last century. . . . . . . . . . . 6

4.1 Results obtained during four seismic cycles. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 27

4.2 Major events magnitude during four seismic cycles. . . . . . . . . . . . 28
4.3 Results obtained during four seismic cycles-1000 trials. . . . . . . . . . 31
4.4 Major events magnitude during four seismic cycles-1000 trials. . . . . 32

v
Abstract

The main purpose of this thesis is to develop realistic models for numerical simulation
of the physical and dynamical process of earthquake generation in Vrancea zone.
Simulated cycle lasts 30-40 years which corresponds to the average seen in Vrancea
cycles. To see the evolution of earthquakes in time and what we could expect for the
next period of seismic activity related to our country, we implemented a mechanism
to restore the area affected by earthquakes. Thus, simulation is no longer limited to
a single seismic cycle.
When the first seismic cycle ends, the simulation is going to continue with the
insertion of the cell from the undestroyed resistance clusters after the first cycle.
Then, taking into account the places in the grid were earthquakes occured during
the previous seismic cycle and their magnitudes, black cells are inserted into the grid.
After the number of clusters begins to decrease due to aggregation, monoclusters
are being inserted, with the condition that they remain isolated until the number of
800 clusters is reached, number required for a seismic cycle in the Vrancea zone. At
this time the grid is completely initialized to simulate a new cycle and can follow
the same algorithm as in the case of a single simulation cycle. Basically, iterative
procedure can be applied to simulate several seismic cycles.

1
Chapter 1

Introduction

On Romanian’s territory earthquakes occur very often, our country being one
of the countries with notable seismic regime, regime characterized both by the
large number of earthquakes produced annually and that have hipocenters in
several areas of the country and by the occurence of every 30-40 years of strong
earthquakes in the Vrancea area. In terms of energy started in the hipocenter,
earthquakes in Vrancea are part of the moderate earthquakes.
Unlike other seismic zones in the world, where the application of simulation
models is difficult because of the complexity of crustal fault systems, Vrancea area
has some outstanding and unique features that make it particularly attractive for
such simulations. Among these include: almost two-dimensional distribution of
hipocenters, on a vertical plane oriented NE-SW; the background seismic activity
is cvasi-constant and is concentrated in an extremelly narrowed volume; it can
be defined a minimum threshold magnitude to characterize the background seis-
micity (associated with a specific critical rupture surface); the persistence of the
reverse faulting mechanism that can be explained by a stab pull down process;
several seismic cycles occurred during the period of instrumental data we provide.
Recent studies have highlighted the close interdependence between small earth-
quakes and major earthquakes, so it is very important monitoring small earth-
quakes to understand the evolution of seismogenic process. Simulation algorithm
is based on the assumption of this interdependence and supposes that the apper-
ence of moderate earthquakes (asperity type) and of major earthquakes (perco-
lation type) is conditioned by the apperence of some weak areas in the seismic
active zone, because of the background seismicity, of low magnitude, that is con-
tinuously recorded in Vrancea, with a quasi-constant rate of occurence and a well
defined geometry (metronome earthquakes).
Chapter 2 describes the Vrancea seismic activity that was labelled as seismic
nest. Most of the current seismotectonic models incorporate the possibility of the

2
CHAPTER 1. INTRODUCTION 3

interaction of a paleo-subduction zone with recent subduction and include the

concept of an old subducted slab sinking gravitationally. Also, some of Vrancea’s
seismicity features that are invariant from one cycle to the other are mentioned.
In achieving the diploma work I started from two projects of my older colleagues.
The first program allows viewing a 3D image with the distribution of earthquakes
in the Vrancea region and 2D graphics and the second one is a simulation of a
seismic cycle.
In Chapter 3 is described the software and hardware configuration used for
this application and the model used for the simulation. The program was tested
on an ordinary PC. Graphic representations is used to improve the way the earth-
quakes that occur in Vrancea region are investigated and to study the evolution
of the fault in time. ROOT is a object-oriented data analysis framework based
on the C++ programming language that permits data processing, data analize,
animation facilities, 3D representation that allows rotation, use transparency and
variation of intensity of color, 2D graphics. The present simulaton model is an
probabilistic approch for the description of the seismic activity in the Vrancea
region that makes allowance for stress release and the statistic data from the
earthquake’s catalogue. We explaine the simulation parameters and how the al-
gorithm is developed to simulate the occurence of background events, asperity
type events and percolation type events. Also, the healing mechanism is de-
scribed.
Chapter 4 contains two of the tests that were made. For the first test, the
initialization was made from the real catalogue of earthquakes and for the second
one by making 1000 trials for randomly insetion of cells. Each test considers a
period of 4 seismic cycles, and at the end of each cycle are computed graphics
with the Gutenberg - Richter distribution and the magnitude of events in the
order they appear. All the test take into account a healing mechanism.
Chapter 5 presents the conclusions that can be drawn from the graphics com-
puted and from the numerical results of the tests.
In Chapter 6 it is described the way the simulation can be improved, so that
better results are obtained.
Chapter 2

State of the Art and Related

Work

Most of the current seismo-tectonic models incorporate the possibility of the

interaction of a paleo-subduction zone with recent subduction and include the
concept of an old subducted slab sinking gravitationally. These features imply
that the Vrancea seismicity is not represented only by a simple subduction system
between two plates.
Renewal-process models, such as the Brownian, lognormal, Weibull, and Gamma
models, are normally used for assessing the long-term probability of characteris-
tic earthquake sequences of quasi-periodic recurrence. These renewal models are
theoretically based on the relative movement between two plates. The seismic-
ity in Vrancea demonstrates neither quasi-periodic recurrence nor simple relative
movement between two plates [IH06]. As such, the tectonic environment of the
region remains uncertain, and the major stress regime of the region is not well
defined. Therefore, renewal models are not the best approach for an assessment
of the long-term seismic hazards in Vrancea.

2.1 Vrancea seismic activity

In a few places around the world, unusual concentrated seismic activity has been
observed. This kind of activity has been labelled as seismic nest. A nest is defined
by high stationary activity relative to the surroundings. A nest should be active
in a more or less continuous mode at a rate higher than the adjacent area and
with the hypocenters concentrated in a small volume. Earthquake swarms are
not defined as nests although a nest may include several swarms. Within this
definition, two classes of nests can be defined: A - Intermediate and deep nests

4
CHAPTER 2. STATE OF THE ART AND RELATED WORK 5

related to subduction zones processes and B - shallow or intermediate depth nests

related to volcanic activity in overriding slabs [ZH03].
Type B nests are numerous and can be found in different parts of the world.
For example, some nests in Japan (Kanto district) have been suggested as shallow
nests, with high rate of energy release. Similar activity has been seen in the
vicinity of other volcanoes in Central America, in New Zealand,in New Hebrides
and in the Aleutians, which are intermediate depth nests (70 km <depth <160
km). More than 40 such nests are identified in the circum Pacific and Indonesian
arcs.
Nests of type A are few and far apart. There are only 3 well recognized nests
of this kind: the Bucaramanga in Colombia, the Vrancea in Romania and the
Hindu Kush in Afghanistan.
The Vrancea region in Romania is located in a complex tectonic zone, which
is characterized by clustered intermediate depth seismic activity. The Vrancea
nest is located at 45.7°N and 26.5°E. The dimension of the Vrancea nest, based
on local data, has been considered to be 2050 km²laterally and 110 km vertically
(between 70-180 km).
Reviewing the seismicity, tectonic, focal mechanism and possible origin of
known nests in Colombia (Bucaramanga), in Romania (Vrancea) and in Afghanistan
(Hindu Kush) reveal that all these nests are located in old subduction zones (relic
subduction). The dips of these slabs are vertical in Vrancea region. The majority
of focal mechanisms of earthquakes are reverse faulting. Another common point
between all these nests is their locations in a regime of complex tectonics and
close to distorted tectonic features.
Several studies have tried to find a physical reason for the existence of nests,
but this is still more or less a mystery. The most known mechanism is the mech-
anism of a detaching slab for Vrancea, but the Vrancea earthquakes are unlikely
to be produced in a passively sinking slab without any mechanical coupling to
the overlying crust. Some kind of coupling is necessary to cause strong extension
inside the slab, but the non existence of a slab-pull-related crustal stress field
indicates that this coupling is not strong enough to transfer slab pull forces to
the overlying crust.
Almost all studies agree that the seismicity in Vrancea is the result of progress
of slab detachment from its upper part (slab break-off). More information is
needed to reveal the most likely mechanism for all these nests.

2.2 Seismic cycle features

Four major earthquake events occurred during the last century. They released
the deformation accumulated along four successive seismic cycles. In each cy-
cle occurred a shock larger than 6.5, that may be generated by a percolation
CHAPTER 2. STATE OF THE ART AND RELATED WORK 6

type process. According to the linear Gutenberg-Richter frequency-magnitude

distribution, each cycle is characterized by a relative lack of earthquakes at in-
termediate magnitudes (5.5-6.5). In Table 2.1 we can see the major earthquakes
that occured in the last century.

Date Depth (km) Size (Mw)

Nov. 10,1940 150 7.7
March 4, 1977 95 7.4
Aug. 30, 1986 130 7.1
May 30, 1990 90 6.9
Table 2.1: Major earthquakes that occured in the last century.

Examining the existing data, we can observe that there are some seismicity
features that are invariant from one cycle to the other [RPCR08]. These features
can be summarized as follows:

ˆ the hypocenter distribution is close to a bi-dimensional one (along a NE-SW

vertical plane);

ˆ the background seismic activity is quasi-constant;

ˆ the structure of the slab is inhomogeneous;

ˆ the focal mechanisms are predominantly of reverse faulting type with a

nearly vertical NE-SW fault plane, parallel with the seismicity distribution;

ˆ a deficit of earthquakes at intermediate magnitudes, between asperity type

(M ∼ 5) and large events (M >7) is emphasized.

It was discussed the existence of two active zones A (60-100 km) and C (115-
170 km) in the Vrancea region, separated by a tranzition zone B (100-115 km).
From the available data we can see that the major shocks (MW >6.5) occur
alternatively in two active segments: the upper one - major events of March 1977
and May 1990 and the lower one - major events of November 1940 and August
1986.
In the Figure 2.1 we can see the Benioff’s curves represent separately for
each cycle. There can be seen significantly differenced between the processes
generating the large earthquakes in the upper active part and the lower active
part of the Vrancea seismic zone. The Benioffs curves represented separately for
each cycle show an apparent regular change from an accelerating release of seismic
energy in the lower active segment to a decelerating release of seismic energy in the
upper active segment. Evidently, this scheme is based on a very poor statistics,
but tentatively it can indicate a preliminary mechanism of transferring stress in
the Vrancea subcrustal region [RPCR08].
CHAPTER 2. STATE OF THE ART AND RELATED WORK 7

Figure 2.1: Successive cumulative processes in Vrancea as revealed by Benioffs

curves.

2.3 Burridge-Knopoff Model

The first automata celular model was proposed by Burridge and Knopoff. This
model consists of a set of masses linked together by elastic springs, the masses
being placed on a flat surface. The model is designed to simulate the behavior
of the lithosphere in the presence of a major fault: the set of blocks that can
slip one along others describe the behavior in the contact zone between two stiff
tectonic blocks that are pushed to relative moving to each other. Interactions are
governed by the laws of mass friction and elastic. When a mass slips, because
of the links between blocks, the stress drop is immediately redistributed on the
closest neighbors. A slip can be singular or may lead to the slipping of a group
of masses. The size of an event is mesured by the number of blocks connected
that suffer a sudden slip [CPG+ 07].
This was the first strong nonlinear model proposed to describe the dynamics
of the seismic process able to reproduce the Gutenberg-Richter law. However,
such model can not reproduce all of the statistical properties of the system.
Attempts were made to improve the model by adding ”realistic features” such as
friction and state dependency rate, fluid migration, barrier-type inhomogeneity
or asperity type barrier. For example, it was shown that the critical state of the
system will self-organize. So, it was introdused a class of self-organized Cellular
Automata. A typical example is the ”sandpile”.
CHAPTER 2. STATE OF THE ART AND RELATED WORK 8

The Burridge-Knopoff slider block model presented in Figure 2.2 is one of the
models processes with many scales in length and time.

Figure 2.2: Burridge-Knopoff Model.

The nearest-neighbor Burridge-Knopoff model was the first slider block model.
Sticking points on the fault are represented by blocks having uniform loader spring
constant kp . Each block is connected to its 2d nearest neighbors (d = spatial
dimension) by springs having constant kc . A friction law prevents the blocks from
sliding until sufficient force (stress) builds up [Int04].
A simulated earthquake begins when the force on a block due to the plate mo-
tion reaches a stress threshold σ F . An earthquake is represented by the avalanche
of failing blocks, triggered by stress transfer from sliding blocks. Each fault seg-
ment has an attributed value for aseismic slip (stress leakage) factor α. Baseline
values for parameters α are determined for each fault segment with the equation
2.3.

Averagestableaseismicslip
2α = (2.1)
T otalslip

So α is an observable quantity that determines fraction of total slip that is

stable aseismic slip.

2.4 Geodynamical model

It is believed that the occurrence of the intermediate depth seismicity within the
high seismic velocities in the upper mantle is because of the transportation of
cold and dense lithospheric material into the upper mantle [KZE+ 09]. Trying
CHAPTER 2. STATE OF THE ART AND RELATED WORK 9

to explain this process we face a big concerns about the type of the descend-
ing material - is it a subducted oceanic lithosphere fragment or a delaminated
continental material?

2.4.1 Detachment Model

The focal mechanism for the largest Vrancea shocks are typically of reverse fault-
ing and the earthquakes are probably being caused by an old sinking slab. The
tectonic evolution of the Carpathians started with the subduction of oceanic litho-
sphere 22 to 10 Million years ago with the direction of subduction first towards
the southwest and later towards the west and northwest. The main driving mech-
anism during that time was the gravitational sinking of the subducted slab which
had a higher density than the surrounding mantle material. After consumption
of the oceanic lithosphere, continental collision started, resulting in overthrust-
ing and uplift. Around 10 million years ago the sinking slab broke off and sank
further downwards more or less vertically, due to gravitation.
Investigating the break-off process after a prelonged period of oceanic litho-
sphere subduction it can be observed that the oceanic part of the slab can become
detached at depths of 35 km. The detached part of the slab sinks into the mantle,
creating gap in the lithospheric system with is filled with upwelling hot atheno-
sphere [ZW01].
In Figure 2.3 we can see the model for slab break-off beneath the Carpathian
arc. The slab segments in the northern parts are already detached (today they
are already sunken into the deeper mantle); the southeastern most segment is
still mechanically coupled with the European platform.

Figure 2.3: Detachment model.

CHAPTER 2. STATE OF THE ART AND RELATED WORK 10

2.4.2 Delamination Model

To explain the Pliocene-Quaternary tectono-sedimentary evolution of the East
Carpathians, an intra-mantle delamination model was proposed. By mantle de-
lamination, the Moesian platform continental lithosphere progressively peels away
from crust, being replaced by asthenosphere. The delamination model can be
seen in Figure 2.4. It suggests that, during the continental collision in Miocene
times, break-off of the west-dipping subducting slab occurred at a depth of 70 km.
Slab break-off propagated horizontally towards the east, inducing lithospheric de-
lamination, counter clock-wise rotation of the delaminated lithospheric segment
and movement of the Vrancea slab (seismically active due to ongoing pull of the
oceanic lithosphere) into its present position.

Figure 2.4: Delamination model.

The delamination mechanism induces an inflow of asthenosphere into the

gap between the delaminated and unaffected lithosphere of the subducting plate
which generates the magmatism and extensional basins in the back-arc area.
The hypothesis of mantle delamination is reinforced by the presence of the deep
Focsani basin just above the area where the detached lower mantle slab is still
attached to the lithosphere. Indeed the Neogene and recent high subsidence
rates of this basin are probably caused by the load exerted by this heavy and
vertically hanging slab on the overlying continental lithosphere. In contrast to
slab break-off, which occurs along a plane perpendicular to the surface of the
lithosphere, delamination takes place along a plane parallel to it. Both processes
imply roll-back with the vertical final position of the slab [FG98].
CHAPTER 2. STATE OF THE ART AND RELATED WORK 11

2.5 Starting point

In achieving the diploma work I started from two projects of my older colleagues.
The first program allows viewing a 3D image with the distribution of earthquakes
in the Vrancea region and 2D graphics and the second one is a simulation of a
seismic cycle.

2.5.1 Earthquake vizualization

The first program, developed in ROOT, allows viewing a 3D image with the
distribution of earthquakes in the Vrancea region, the existing catalog of earth-
quakes and some graphics. The computed graphics show: the yearly average
magnitude, yearly and mounth frequency, frequency size distribution, frequency
depth distribution. Also, it was plotted the Gutenberg-Richter law in all of its
cumulative and non-cumulative forms, the spatial distribution of earthquakes
(longitude-latitude, longitude-depth and latitude-depth). The Omori’s law for
two major events was represented and an animation with aftershocks of the two
major events were made.
The parameters used for the Gutenberg-Richter law provide recurrence times
of approximately 25 years for MW ≥ 7.0 and 52 years for MW ≥ 7.4. However, it
must be noted that the relevance of such estimations is, in fact, very limited, as
it can be shown that the Gutenberg-Richter law has a relative deviation of 41%,
that may be taken as a measure for the variability in the recurrence time.
The b-slope changes with the depth of the events, having a minimum at 90-
100 km depth, a relative maximum around 100-115 km depth and a decrease
in the bottom slab. This general tendency of b value to decrease with depth
is in agreement with the increase of the lithostatic stress and stress drop. The
anomalous low values in the upper and lower part of the slab correlate well
with the presumed two active segments able to generate the largest Vrancea
shocks [Pas09].

2.5.2 Earthquake simulation

The second program is a simulation of a seismic cycle. The simulations are made
for 3 test cases: 2 random initialization test cases and initialization from the data
set test case. A special attention was given when the percolation threshold was
reached and the events were considered major events. Two simulation scenarios
were considered: the first considered the secondary percolation events as part
of the major event and the magnitude was computed from the total surface
of the destroyed clusters; the second computes the magnitudes separately for
each secondary event resulting smaller magnitudes and more earthquakes. Both
scenarios were carried out starting from an initial grid with and without monocell
clusters.
CHAPTER 2. STATE OF THE ART AND RELATED WORK 12

The simulation results for a random initialization of the grid showed a very
good frequency-magnitude distribution when inserting about 900 black cells. Ad-
ditional monocell clusters contribute to linear distribution for lower magnitudes
but the number should be less than maximum possible. Initializing the grid from
the data set also provided good results but a deficit of events with magnitudes
between 6 and 7 and an excess of events with magnitudes between 5 and 5.5 was
observed. The major events were larger then expected but the deviations from
the Gutenberg-Richter law are due to the fact that the lower part of the stab is
more active and the coarse graining was made considering the entire catalogue
of seismic events [Nad09].

2.5.3 The duration of the simulated seismic cycles

It was tested the distribution of the duration of the Vrancea’s seismic cycles for
the lower active segment (120 - 170 km depth) on a set of 10000 simulated seismic
cycles. The results can be seen in the Figure 2.5. The simulations have been made
using different techniques of random generation. It can be observed that most of
the simulated seismic cycles last between 35 and 50 years [CPG+ 07].

Figure 2.5: The duration of 10000 simulated seismic cycles.

Chapter 3

Project implementation

3.1 Hardware and Software Configuration

The program was tested on an ordinary PC with the following configuration:

ˆ Processor: Intel Core 2 Duo P8600

ˆ Processor: frequency 2.40 GHz

ˆ Operating: System Microsoft Windows 7, 32 bit edition

ROOT is a free, open-source, object-oriented data analysis framework that

based on the C++ programming language. This tool was developed at CERN,
which is a particle physics lab located near Geneva,Switzerland [AT08]. This
program was chosen so that we can visualize the evolution of the grid during the
simulation and analyze the simulated data.
Some of the useful features of ROOT are:

ˆ Data processing, data analyze, animation facilities, histograms.

ˆ Three-dimensional graphics package that allows the vizualisation of 3D

graphics that permit rotation, the use of transparency, the modification
of the colour.

ˆ A complete, self-contained GUI toolkit, including a GUI builder, which can

be used to develop customized GUIs for specific tasks.

ˆ ROOT graphics and visualization classes and CINT, the C/C++ interpreter
facilitate a graphical simulation of model.

13
CHAPTER 3. PROJECT IMPLEMENTATION 14

ˆ All the libraries available in standard C++ can be easily used and integrated
with a ROOT analysis.

ˆ Parallel processing - PROOF (parallel ROOT Facility). PROOF is an ex-

tension of ROOT that allows transparent analysis of large sets of ROOT
files in parallel on remote computer clusters or multi-core computers.

3.2 Simulation model

The numerical Simulation Model of the Vrancea seismic activity was proposed
by Dr. O. Carbunar and Dr. M. Radulian and is described in [RPCR08]. The
present simulaton model is an probabilistic approch for the description of the
seismic activity in the Vrancea region that makes allowance for stress release and
the statistic data from the earthquake’s catalogue.
The simulation algorithm requires as input parameters: active source geom-
etry, dimension of the rupture elementary area, dimension of the elementary
asperity area, average rate of background seismicity, level of occupation with as-
perity cells at the beginning of the cycle, minimum clustering degree to break an
asperity cell, average rate of healing, asperity strength [RPCR08].
The algorithm considers the existence of 3 types of seismic activity that can
be associsted with the distribution by size of the earthquakes in the Vrancea zone:

ˆ background seismicity associated with small events, that release the stress
on the elementary surfaces;

ˆ asperity type earthquakes associated with moderate events, that are pro-
duced by the rupture of the asperities that are coupled with the adiacent
weak areas;

ˆ major earthquakes associates with big events that broke the major asperities
coupled with percolation clusters.

Because of the existence of these 3 types of seismic activity, the simulation

model assumes an hierarchical (in steps) generation of earthquakes. The first
step is reprezented by the background seismic activity, which is being formed
in the active zone by the faulting of the weak resistence areas. The next step,
represented by the moderate earthquakes, requires the presence of some rupture
zones, that when being coupled with the resistence areas can generate asperity
type earthquakes. The last step, represented by major earthquakes, appears when
the number of the weak cells in the active zone exceeds a critical value giving
birth to a rupture at the level of the entire zone.
The active area is divided in elementary surfaces, as proposed by Lomnitz-
Adler. Depending on their resistence to stress, there are the 3 types of elementary
CHAPTER 3. PROJECT IMPLEMENTATION 15

surfaces (cells): high resistence - black cells, normal resistence - white cells and
low resistence - gray cells.
Because it is impossible to simulate an infinite grid on a computer the bound-
aries are set to the lower active part of the slab.

3.3 Cellular Automaton methods

Cellular automata are large lattices in which each site can be in one of several
discrete states. Depending on the present state of the neighboring sites we can
determine the state of each site at the next time step. Both time an space are
discrete, and the state of each site is influenced only by the neighbor sites. Those
are ideal conditions for high-speed simulations on vector or parallel computers
[Jia96].
For the simulation of the seismic activity using this method, we first consider
the posible states for a cell: active - black or inactive - white. For a better
approximation of a continous system, a grater number of states can be used.
In the Figure 3.1 we can see some possible neighbourhood of a cell. Those
are: von Neumann’s with radius 1 and 2 in 2D (a and b), Moore (c), Smith (d),
Cole (e si f), von Neumann with radius 1 in 3D. The neighbourhood of a cell
must have an uniform geometry. The classic neighbourhoods are von Neumann
and Moore. For this algorithm we consider a neighbourhood type Moore.

Figure 3.1: Neighbourhood types.

3.4 Simulation parameters

The active area that is considered for the simulation is the lower active part of the
slab imagined as the median plane of the earthquakes epicenter. To obtain the
median plane, the best rectangle was computed in [Nad09] - the one that contains
an uniform distribution of the epicenters. The coordinates of the rectangle are
obtained by centering it in the mass center of the epicenters and considering that
CHAPTER 3. PROJECT IMPLEMENTATION 16

70x80 square cells with the side of 0.65 km should fit in it. To evaluate the
distribution of epicenters, the rectangle is divided in several slices and for each
slice the number of contained epicenter projections is memorized. The rectangle
score is computed by calculating the root mean square deviation, and the smallest
score designates the best rectangle. The find the rectangle’s coordinates, the
initial rectangle is rotated with a predefined angle until the best rectangle is
found. The rectangle is divided into cells and each cell is considered active if at
least one epicenter belongs to it and if its magnitude exceeds a threshold.
Then, the id of each activated cell (black cell) is written to a file. These
ids will be used for the initial configuration of the grid in the case we choose to
initialize the grid from the real catalogue of earthquakes.
The grid is divided in 70 x 80 cells, that represent elementary surfaces, each
with the side L = 0,65 km. Each cell represents a background earthquake of
minimum magnitude M = 2.9 on the Richter scale.
The seismic model considers that there are about 50 background earthquakes
each year, that appear randomly and cause the release of stress on an elementary
surface and that approximately 20-25 asperity type earthquakes that take place
because of stress release on a larger area with high resistance.
The magnitude of an earthquake can be computed using the following equa-
tion:
S
3 log Se
ML = Me + (3.1)
2 c

Where:

ˆ ML is the local magnitude of an asperity type earthquake with a slip area

of S,

ˆ Me is the minimum magnitude able to release the stress on an elementary

grid area Se for a background event and is considered to be 3 for this
simulation,

ˆ c is the slope constant in the seismic moment - magnitude relation and is

1.0 for the Vrancea subcrustal earthquakes,

ˆ S is the total number of black cells and grey cells that contributed to the
event,

ˆ Se is the elementary grid area and is 1 (one cell).

CHAPTER 3. PROJECT IMPLEMENTATION 17

3.4.1 The initialization of the grid

For the initial configuration of the grid we introduce in the grid only black cells
that are uniformly distributed. We can not introduce gray cells, because these
cell are weak ones, and so the configuration will not be stable. We can read from
file the position of the cells in the grid or we can make 1000 trials so that about
900 black cells are introduced into the grid.
When a cell is introduced into the grid, its neighbours are notified of the
appearance of the new cell. The cell is added to an asperity cluster. If the cell is
isolated, a new cluster is created. If it is not isolated, the cell can be added to an
existing cluster or it can join 2 clusters. In each of the three cases, the resistence
of the cluster is increased.
The resistence of a cluster with N cells is computed with the following equa-
tion:

R(N ) = α10βN (3.2)

where α = 8.47 and β = 0.15.

Then, monoclusters are introduced randomly into the grid, until the number
of clusters reaches 800 clusters. In this moment, the simulation of earthquakes
can begin.

3.4.2 Background events

The background seismic activity are being continously formed in the seismic area
by faulting the relative weak resistence zones and are able to completly release
the stress accumulated on a elementary surface with a normal resistence. The
monoclusters that are being introduced into the grid are used for the generation
of background events, because their resistence is very small and so are very easy
to be destroyed.
Continuous background seismic activity leads to long-range stress correla-
tions. The background event determine a descrese in the asperity cluster’s re-
sistence. Gray cells are randomly introduced in the grid, so a background event
could take place any location in the grid.
Background earthquakes determines white cells to change their state and
become gray cells.

3.4.3 Asperity type events

Gray cells are randomly introduced into the grid. For each cell we proceed as in
the case of black cells: if the cell is isolated we create a new cluster and if not we
add it to an existing cluster or we join 2 clusters. The asperities are distributed
uniformly in the entire grid. The resistence of the gray clusters is not computed.
CHAPTER 3. PROJECT IMPLEMENTATION 18

The number of asperities, formed from single asperities or from clsuters of

asperities, should the about 900 to approximate a complete seismic cycle.
A gray cell can influence the resistence of a black cluster only if the gray
cluster the cell belongs to is at the border of the black cluster. If the two clusters
have more than one contact point, the effect of the introduction of the new gray
cell is bigger. The black cluster’s resistance is descreased with dW, that depends
on the distance from the inserted gray cell to the black cluster. The present
algorithm proposes that the distance is computed with the following equation:

√
distance = (iB − iM )(iB − iM ) + (jB − jM )(jB − jM ) + 1 (3.3)

Where:

ˆ iB,jB are the boarder cell indexes and

ˆ iM,jM are the indexes of the new grey cell.

If the distance is smaller that 2 (corresponding to a distance of 2 cells away)

dW will be 4. For a distance between 2 and 4 dW will be 3, between 4 and 6 dW
will be 2, between 6 and 8 dW will be 1 and for a distance grater then 8 cells dw
will be 0. This can be seen in the Figure 3.2.

Figure 3.2: The black cells influenced by the introduction of an gray cell.

In case the resistence of a black clusters reaches the value 0, the respective
cluster is destroyed, and this generates an asperity type earthquake. A gray cell
can determine the destruction of several black clusters, and this is considered to
be a sigle event.
The magnitude of the event is computed with the equation (3.4) where the
surface S is considered to be the surface of the cells in the black cluster together
CHAPTER 3. PROJECT IMPLEMENTATION 19

with the surface of the grey cells that contributed to the event. Asperity type
earthquakes determines black cells to change their state and become white cells.

3.4.4 Percolation type events

A major earthquake can take place in the moment the number of gray cells has
reached a critical level - the number of gray cells is grater than half the total
number of cells. Another condition is that the magnitude of the event is higher
than 6.5. The rupture of an asperity clusters with a big resistence generates a
chain reaction, that causes a major faulting. Then, the remaining black clusters
are analyzed and, for each of them, if its resistence is less than one third of its
resistence before the event, it is considered to be destroyed. The effect of the
destroyed clusters is also taken into account. So, the total magnitude of the
major event increases with each surface of the black cells and grey cells that
contributed to the major events. A seismic cycle ends in the moment a major
event occures.

3.5 Healing process

The existence of the seismic cycles in well defined geographical regions shows on
one hand that there is a process of destruction of the area, that makes possible
the generation of major faulting, and on the other hand that it also exists an
antagonistic process of the healing of the area, that makes possible the beginning
of a new seismic cycle.
Simulated cycle lasts 30-40 years which corresponds to the average seen in
Vrancea cycles. To see the evolution of earthquakes in time and what we could
expect for the next period of seismic activity related to our country, we imple-
mented a mechanism to restore the area affected by earthquakes. Thus, simula-
tion is no longer limited to a single seismic cycle.
To explain the healing of the rupture zones, we should analyze many aspects
as: time, frictional strengthening, fluid variations or changes in the state of stress
as well as the normal compaction of the rupture zone [LV01].
The predicted maximum possible magnitude is M = 7.8 for the upper and
lower active segment, respectively, estimated using the total surface of the active
seismic area for the two segments [RPCR08]. Because of this, the simulation of
a seismic cycle ends when the magnitude of an events is between 7.0 and 7.8,
but not before we see which clusters are also destroyed because of the event (its
magnitude is lower than 13 of its magnitude before the event).
The implementation of healing process takes into account the fact that, during
the weakning process, the stress is being cumulated on a surface that corresponds
to an asperity cluster. The stress is released in the moment an earthquake takes
place. It should pass some time, until the stress is cumulated again, so another
CHAPTER 3. PROJECT IMPLEMENTATION 20

event could occur. So, the place where the earthquake appeared must have a
high resistence in order to cumulate the stress.
At the end of a seismic cycle, we see all the undestroyed clusters, and for each
of it, we verify if its first cell is black (it could also be gray, because the gray cell
form clusters as well). So, for each black cluster, we save all its cells in an array,
and the its resistence in another array. The vector of cells and the resistence of
the undestroyed clusters will be used in the next cycle for the initialization of the
grid.
We consider that if the insertion of a gray cell causes the occuring of an event,
the id of that cell will be the location of an earthquake. When an earthquake
occures, we save its position in grid (its id) in an array that will be used in the
following cycle when we will initialize the grid. Also, we should pay attention
to the magnitude of the event. We tried to differentiate between earthquakes
magnitudes so that better results are obtained.
After the number of clusters begins to decrease due to aggregation, we insert
monoclusters, with the condition that they remain isolated until we reach the
number of 900 clusters, number required for a seismic cycle in the Vrancea zone.
At this time the grid is completely initialized to simulate a new cycle and can
follow the same algorithm as in the case of a single simulation cycle. Basically,
iterative procedure can be applied to simulate several seismic cycles.
We create a file for each seismic cycle in which we write the magnitude of
the events and the location of the earthquake within the grid (line and column),
so the events can be visualized and analyzed. Also for each seismic cycle we
compute graphics with the Gutenberg-Richter law and with the relation between
magnitude and the events order.
To find the distribution in time of the events that occured during a seismic
cycle we take into account the fact that the rate of the background earthquakes
is 50 per year and of asperity type earthquakes is 20-25 per year (consider 25).
Several tests have been made with different methods of computing the re-
sistence of the events from the previous cycle depending of their magnitude. A
version of implementing the healing process proposed in [CPG+ 07] considers
that the cells inserted after the introduction of the cells from the undestroyed
clusters from the previous cycle should not be coupled with those clusters, but if
we do so, we would not heal all the areas where events occured in the previous
cycle.
Because a complete implementation of the healing process should take into
account all the temporal, spatial, physical and chemical features of the seismic
zone and this is very hard, all solutions can be considered good, if satisfactory
results are obtain (closer to the reality).
Chapter 4

Case studies

The scaling relations, such as frequency - magnitude distribution, can provide

valide information as concerns the distribution and evolution of the local stress
field in correlation with the evolution of the geodynamic system.
In order to study the noise of earthquakes, it was needed a way to measure
the size of earthquakes, and so Charles Richter developed the main scale that
is used today. On the Richter scale, the magnitude of an earthquake is propor-
tional to the logaritm of the maximum amplitude of the earths motion. This
means that, in a magnitude 2 earthquake the earth moves one millimeter, in a
magnitude 3 earthquake it will move 10 millimeters, in a magnitude 4 earthquake
100 millimeters, and in a magnitude 6 earthquake 10 meters. So in the magnitude
8 earthquake the ground is moving 10,000 times more than in the magnitude 4
earthquake. Also, it appears a difference in energies that is even greater. For each
factor of 10 in amplitude, the energy grows by a factor of 32, so a magnitude 8
earthquake releases 1,000,000 times more energy than a magnitude 4 earthquake.
The release of energy expalains why the earthquakes do so much damage.

4.1 Gutenberg Richter Law

In seismology, the Gutenberg-Richter law (4.1) expresses the relation between the
magnitude and total number of earthquakes in any given region and time period.

log N = a − bM (4.1)

Where:

ˆ N is the number of events with magnitude grater than M that occure in a

given time period,

21
CHAPTER 4. CASE STUDIES 22

ˆ M is the minumum magnitude,

ˆ a and b are constants.

The constant a depends on the number of earthquakes in the time and region
sampled and the slope b is typically equal to 1.0. This means that for every
magnitude 4.0 event there will be 10 magnitude 3.0 quakes and 100 magnitude 2.0
quakes. A notable exception is during earthquake swarms when the b-value can
become as high as 2.5 indicating an even larger proportion of small quakes to large
ones. A b-value significantly different from 1.0 may suggest a problem with the
data set (it is incomplete or contains errors in calculating magnitude). The the b-
value is an indicator of the completeness of the data set at the low magnitude end.
The Gutenberg-Richter law parameters considered for the simulations are a=5.4
and b=0.88. The red points show the ideal Gutenberg - Richter distribution.

4.2 Real catalogue

The active area that is considered for the simulation is the lower active part of
the slab imagined as the median plane of the earthquakes epicenter. The id of
each activated cell (black cell) is written to a file. These ids will be used for the
initial configuration of the grid.

4.2.1 Initialization
For the initialization of the grid the cells inserted were read from the real cata-
logue of earthquakes. The configuration of the grid after the insertion of the cells
(891 cells) can be seen in Figure 4.1.

Figure 4.1: The cells from the real catalogue of earthquakes.

CHAPTER 4. CASE STUDIES 23

Then, 800 monoclusters were randomly inserted, so that background events

can take place all over the grid. The configuration of the grid after the insertion
of the monoclusters can be seen in Figure 4.2.

Figure 4.2: The grid in the moment the initialization is finished.

4.2.2 Reinitialization
When the first seismic cycle ends, for the reinitialization of the grid we take into
account the cells from the clusters that remained undestroyed in the previous
cycle and their magnitudes, and the epicenters of the earthquakes that occured
during the previous seismic cycle, and also their magnitudes.
In Figure 4.3 we can see the clusters that were not destroyed in the first seismic
cycle. Almost all clusters have over 20 cells. They were not broken because of
their high resistence.

Figure 4.3: The clusters that were not destroyed in the previous seismic cycle.
CHAPTER 4. CASE STUDIES 24

Figure 4.4 shows the grid after the insertion of the cells that represent the
epicenters of the earthquakes that occured in the first seismic cycle. There are
some cells that were added to the asperity clusters that were not destroyed in the
previous seismic cycle.

Figure 4.4: The grid after the insertion of the earthquakes epicenter.

Then, we insert 800 monoclusters (as we did in the first seismic cycle). We
do not save the undestroyed monoclusters from a cycle to another because they
are only used for the generation of background events. The grid after the reini-
tialization for the second seismic cycle is shown in the Figure 4.5.

Figure 4.5: The grid after the reinitialization for a new seismic cycle.

In this moment the grid is completly reinitialized and the simulation of a new
seismic cycle can begin.
CHAPTER 4. CASE STUDIES 25

4.2.3 Gutenberg-Richter law

After each seimic cycle we compute the Gutenberg-Richter law. This law shows
the frequency-magnitude distribution for the earthquakes that occur during a
seismic cycle. The red points show the ideal Gutenberg - Richter distribution.
Figure 4.6 shows the Gutenberg-Richter distribution for the first seismic cycle.
The initialization of the grid was made from real catalogue of earthquakes.
Gutenberg-Richter Law Gutenberg-Richter Law

2.5 2.5

2 2

1.5 1.5

1 1

0.5 0.5
3.6 3.8 4 4.2 4.4 4.6 4.8 5 5.2 5.4 3.6 3.8 4 4.2 4.4 4.6 4.8 5 5.2 5.4

Figure 4.6: Gutenberg-Richter law Figure 4.7: Gutenberg-Richter law

for the first seismic cycle. for the second seismic cycle.

For the following three seismic cycles the initialization was made with the
cells from the clusters that were not destroyed in the previous seismic cycle and
with cells that represent the epicenters of the earthquakes that occured during the
previous seismic cycle. Figure 4.7 shows the frequency- magnitude distribution for
the second seismic cycle, figure 4.8 shows the frequency-magnitude distribution
for the third one and figure 4.9 shows the frequency-magnitude distribution for
the fourth one.
Gutenberg-Richter Law Gutenberg-Richter Law

2.5 2.5

2 2

1.5 1.5

1 1

0.5 0.5
3.6 3.8 4 4.2 4.4 4.6 4.8 5 5.2 5.4 3.6 3.8 4 4.2 4.4 4.6 4.8 5 5.2 5.4

Figure 4.8: Gutenberg-Richter law Figure 4.9: Gutenberg-Richter law

for the third seismic cycle. for the fourth seismic cycle.

The Gutenberg-Richter law is respected by each of the simulated seismic

cycles. Also, it can seen an excces of events with magnitudes lower than 4.0. This
appears because of the big number of monoclusters inserted for the generation of
the background events.
CHAPTER 4. CASE STUDIES 26

4.2.4 Magnitude-events order

In figure 4.10 we can see the relation between the magnitude and the events
order for the first seismic cycle. The initialization of the grid was made from real
catalogue of earthquakes.
Magnitudes Magnitudes
magnitude

magnitude
7 6.5

6.5 6

6 5.5

5.5
5
5
4.5
4.5
4
4
3.5
3.5
0 100 200 300 400 500 600 700 0 100 200 300 400 500 600 700
event order event order

Figure 4.10: Magnitudes-events or- Figure 4.11: Magnitudes-events or-

der for the first seismic cycle. der for the second seismic cycle.

For the following three seismic cycles the initialization was made with the
cells from the clusters that were not destroyed in the previous seismic cycle and
with cells that represent the epicenters of the earthquakes that occured during
the previous seismic cycle. Figure 4.11 shows the relation between the magnitude
and the events order for the second seismic cycle, figure 4.12 shows the relation
between the magnitude and the events order for the third one and figure 4.13
shows the relation between the magnitude and the events order for the fourth
one.
Magnitudes Magnitudes
8
magnitude

magnitude

7.5

7
7
6.5

6 6
5.5

5 5

4.5

4 4

3.5
3
0 100 200 300 400 500 600 700 0 100 200 300 400 500 600 700
event order event order

Figure 4.12: Magnitudes-events or- Figure 4.13: Magnitudes-events or-

der for the third seismic cycle. der for the fourth seismic cycle.

A deficit in generation of earthquakes with magnitudes between 5.5 and 6.5

can be observed. This is characteristic for the earthquakes that occur in Vrancea
region. Also, it can be observed a deficit of events before the occurence of the
major earthquake. This is because the magnitude of the event is calculated as a
sum of the events that take place before and after it.
CHAPTER 4. CASE STUDIES 27

4.2.5 Numerical results

All the events that occur during a seismic cycle are saved to a file. For each event
we save: magnitude, the location in grid (line, column) and the moment (year,
month, day) it occured within the seismic cycle. An exemple of a ”simulated
catalogue” can be seen in Figure 4.14. It can be observed a deficit of events
before the occurence of the major earthquake.

Figure 4.14: Simulated catalogue.

In the table 4.1 we can see the results obtained during each of the four seismic
cycles. The second and the third columns contain the number of clusters and the
number of black cells before the insertion of the monoclusters. The last two
columns contain the total number of black clusters and the total number of black
cells.

seismic cycle clusters black cells total clusters total black clusters
first 318 891 880 1453
second 343 912 835 1404
third 363 894 857 1388
fourth 371 832 884 1345
Table 4.1: Results obtained during four seismic cycles.
CHAPTER 4. CASE STUDIES 28

In the Table 4.2 we can see the magnitude of the event after it was met the
condition that its M >6.5 and other cluster were destroyed because of its influence
(its magnitude increases with each surface of a destroyed cluster), the magnitude
in the moment it was labeled as a major event and the moment it occured (year,
month, day).

seismic cycle major percolation/magnitude year month day

first 7.136657/6.913867 39 7 19
second 6.882745/6.882745 39 10 27
third 7.345060/7.344746 41 11 9
fourth 7.628185/7.416641 40 10 27
Table 4.2: Major events magnitude during four seismic cycles.

The number of gray cells at the end of each of the four seismic cucles is: 2965,
3432, 3142 and 3057. The number of events that occured during each seismic
cycles are: 657, 659, 652 and 687.

4.3 1000 trials

For the second test case, the initialization of the grid was made inserting the cells
from 1000 trials. So, about 900 cells were randomly inserted into the grid.

4.3.1 Initialization
The configuration of the grid after the insertion of the cells from 1000 trials can
be seen in Figure 4.15.

Figure 4.15: The cells randomly inserted-1000 trials.

CHAPTER 4. CASE STUDIES 29

Then, 800 monoclusters were randomly inserted, so that background events

can take place all over the grid. The configuration of the grid after the insertion
of the monoclusters can be seen in Figure 4.16.

Figure 4.16: The grid in the moment the initialization is finished-1000 trials.

The reinitialization is made exactly as in the case of the previous test.

4.3.2 Gutenberg-Richter law

After each seimic cycle we compute the Gutenberg-Richter law. This law shows
the frequency-magnitude distribution for the earthquakes that occur during a
seismic cycle.The red points show the ideal Gutenberg - Richter distribution.
Figure 4.17 shows the Gutenberg-Richter distribution for the first seismic
cycle. The initialization of the grid was made by inserting cells from 1000 trials.
Gutenberg-Richter Law Gutenberg-Richter Law

2.5 2.5

2
2

1.5
1.5

1
1

0.5
0.5
3.6 3.8 4 4.2 4.4 4.6 4.8 5 5.2 5.4 3.6 3.8 4 4.2 4.4 4.6 4.8 5 5.2 5.4

Figure 4.17: Gutenberg-Richter law Figure 4.18: Gutenberg-Richter law

for the first seismic cycle. for the second seismic cycle.

For the following three seismic cycles the initialization was made with the cells
from the clusters that were not destroyed in the previous seismic cycle and with
cells that represent the epicenters of the earthquakes that occured during the pre-
vious seismic cycle. Figure 4.18 shows the frequency- magnitude distribution for
CHAPTER 4. CASE STUDIES 30

the second seismic cycle, figure 4.19 shows the frequency-magnitude distribution
for the third one and figure 4.20 shows the frequency-magnitude distribution for
the fourth one.
Gutenberg-Richter Law Gutenberg-Richter Law

2.5 2.5

2 2

1.5 1.5

1 1

0.5 0.5
3.6 3.8 4 4.2 4.4 4.6 4.8 5 5.2 5.4 3.6 3.8 4 4.2 4.4 4.6 4.8 5 5.2 5.4

Figure 4.19: Gutenberg-Richter law Figure 4.20: Gutenberg-Richter law

for the third seismic cycle. for the fourth seismic cycle.

The Gutenberg-Richter law is respected by each of the simulated seismic

cycles, but the graphics are not so good as in case the initialization for the first
seismic cycle was made from the real catalogue of earthquakes.
Also, it can seen an excces of events with magnitudes lower than 4.0. This
appears because of the big number of monoclusters inserted for the generation of
the background events.

4.3.3 Magnitude-events order

In figure 4.21 we can see the relation between the magnitude and the events order
for the first seismic cycle. The grid initialized by making 1000 trials to insert cell
(about 900). The figure 4.22 shows the relation between the magnitude and the
events order for the second seismic cycle.
Magnitudes Magnitudes
7.5
magnitude

magnitude

7
7
6.5
6.5
6
6
5.5
5.5
5
5
4.5
4.5
4
4
3.5
3.5
0 100 200 300 400 500 600 700 0 100 200 300 400 500 600 700 800
event order event order

Figure 4.21: Magnitude-events order Figure 4.22: Magnitude-events order

for the first seismic cycle. for the second seismic cycle.

For the following three seismic cycles the initialization was made with the
cells from the clusters that were not destroyed in the previous seismic cycle and
CHAPTER 4. CASE STUDIES 31

with cells that represent the epicenters of the earthquakes that occured during
the previous seismic cycle. Figure 4.23 shows the relation between the magnitude
and the events order for the third seismic cycle and figure 4.24 for the fourth one.
Magnitudes Magnitudes
magnitude

magnitude
7
7
6.5
6.5
6
6

5.5 5.5

5 5

4.5 4.5

4 4

3.5 3.5

0 100 200 300 400 500 600 700 800 0 100 200 300 400 500 600 700
event order event order

Figure 4.23: Magnitude-events order Figure 4.24: Magnitude-events order

for the third seismic cycle. for the fourth seismic cycle.

For this test case, a deficit in generation of earthquakes with magnitudes

between 5.5 and 6.5 be also be observed. This is characteristic for the earthquakes
that occur in Vrancea region. Also, it can be seen a deficit of events before the
occurence of the major earthquake. This is because the magnitude of the event
is calculated as a sum of the events that take place before and after it.

4.3.4 Numerical results

In the Table 4.3 we can see the results obtained during each of the four seismic
cycles. The second and the third columns contain the number of clusters and
the number of black cells after the initial configuration of the grid. The last two
columns contain the total number of black clusters and the total number of black
cells.

seismic cycle clusters black cells total clusters total black clusters
first 420 921 872 1373
second 404 712 986 1294
third 437 753 958 1274
fourth 421 759 959 1297
Table 4.3: Results obtained during four seismic cycles-1000 trials.

In the Table 4.4 we can see the magnitude of the event after it met the
condition that its magnitude >6.5 and other cluster were destroyed because of
its influence (its magnitude increases with each surface of a destroyed cluster),
the magnitude in the moment it was labeled as a major event and the moment
it occured (year, month, day).
CHAPTER 4. CASE STUDIES 32

seismic cycle major percolation/magnitude year month day

first 7.189631/6.887674 39 3 24
second 6.863799/6.863799 56 10 22
third 7.130784/6.522183 38 9 7
fourth 6.979730/6.798374 39 2 13
Table 4.4: Major events magnitude during four seismic cycles-1000 trials.

The number of events that occured during each seismic cycles are: 678, 751,
738 and 725. In the second test case, for the last three seismic cycles, the number
of events that occured during each seismic cycle is higher than the one obtained
for the first test case and the magnitudes of the major events are lower.
Chapter 5

Conclusions

The origin of Vrancea seismicity is not yet fully understood. However, most
geodynamic models agree with the existence of a vertical relic slab that sinks
into the asthenosphere due to the gravity forces.
For the understanding of the evolution of the seismic areas on different spatial
and temporal scales and of the stress is acummulated and released in succesive
seismic cycles, it is esential to know the way the area is being healed after small
and major earthquakes. This problem is even more important for the seismic re-
gion Vrancea, where seismicity is concentrated in an extremely narrowed volume.
To explain the healing of the rupture zones, we should analyze many aspects
as: time, frictional strengthening, fluid variations or changes in the state of stress
as well as the normal compaction of the rupture zone.
The deviations from the Gutenberg-Richter law for the first seismic cycle
are due to the fact that the lower part of the stab is more active and that the
median plane was computed for the hole active area. For the Vrancea region, the
frequency-magnitude distributions has a nonliniar behaviour.
The best Gutenberg-Richter distribution was obtained in the case for the first
seismic cycle the initialization of the grid was made from the real catalogue of
earthquakes and for the other seismic cycle the grid was initialized with the cells
from the clusters that were not destroyed in the previous seismic cycle and with
the cells that represent the epicenters of the earthquakes that occured during the
previous seismic cycle.
From the magnitude-events order graphics and from the ”simulated cata-
logue” obtained we can see an excces of events with magnitudes lower than 4.0.
This appears because of the big number of monoclusters and of clusters with fewer
cells inserted. The resistence of each monocluster is the same, so when inserting
a gray cell in the neighbourhood of the monocluster, we obtain a background
earthquake with magnitude at about 3.6. This fact explains the very big number

33
CHAPTER 5. CONCLUSIONS 34

of earthquake with magnitude 3.6 that can be seen in the simulated catalogue.
This leads to a deviation in the Gutenberg-Richter law for lower magnitudes.
It can be observed a deficit of events before the occurence of the major earth-
quake. This is because the magnitude of the event is calculated as a sum of the
events that occure before and after it. Also, a deficit in generation of earthquakes
with magnitudes between 5.5 and 6.5 can be observed. This is characteristic for
the earthquakes that occure in Vrancea region.
Major events in the lower segment of the active area are consideres to have
magnitudes in the range 6.5-7.8. From the test that have been made, the magni-
tudes of the major earthquakes that occured are between 6.86 and 7.62.
The simulated seismic cycles lasted between 38 and 41 years (only one seismic
cycle lasted 56 years). This respects the characteristic return period for the
Vrancea region.
Chapter 6

Future work

The present simulation is only for the lower lithosphere in the Vrancea region.
A simulation that takes into account the hole active area of the Vrancea region
can be made or a simulation for the upper part of the active zone, so that an
evolution of the entire seismic area can be vizualized and analyzed.
The median plane was computed for the hole active area, and from this it
was taken the lower part so that the grid can be initialized. Better result can be
obtained if the plane is computed only for the lower segment of the active area.
Another subject of the future work is represented by finding other methods
to simulate the healing process, so that better results are obtained. For each
method it must be analyzed if the simulation can not lead to configurations that
gradually block the areas capable of being destroyed or, contrary, that gardually
reduce the ability of the system to generate large earthquakes.
All earthquakes occurring along the simulation are introduced in a catalog of
”simulated” earthquakes, so that the data can be viewed and analyzed. Since the
simulation is done using a 2D grid, for each earthquake obtained we only know the
magnitude, the position in the grid and the moment it occured within the seismic
cycle (year, month, day). To see a 3D representation of the earthquakes that
occured during the simulation, it should be made a mechanism of recomputing
the depth depending on the initial projection on the median plane.
The achievement of realistic models for numerical simulation of the physical
and dynamical process of earthquake generation in Vrancea zone is a challenge for
the most advanced research in seismology, taking into account the phenomenon
complexity and multiple scales involved. The realistic simulation proves to be a
powerful tool for investigating the seismic process, understanding the precursory
phenomena and the seismic cycle.

35
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