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A centenary perspective
provided helpful comments on a draft of at the end of 2003 it was close to 8 days. An
Weather – December 2004, Vol. 59, No. 12
Alan J. Thorpe
this essay. overall average figure that is often quoted is
University of Reading that forecast skill is improving at the rate of
1-day lead-time per decade, and in fact this
It is the 100th anniversary in 2004 of the
Process of weather forecasting rate has noticeably increased in the last few
publication of Vilhelm Bjerknes’ paper Let us try to summarise how weather predic- years. How has this progress been achieved?
that set the agenda for modern weather tion is currently carried out. Observations of To simplify substantially, the answer is by
forecasting based on scientific weather the state of the atmosphere are made. These making huge scientific and technological
prediction (Bjerknes 1904; see English are used, along with a short-range forecast improvements in understanding the atmos-
translation by Mintz 1999). Bjerknes of this state, in a process called data assim- phere, observations, modelling and com-
suggested that the laws and mathematical ilation, to produce what is called the analy- puter power. Is the rate of improvement
equations of physics could be integrated sis. The numerical forecast model, including slowing down? Not obviously. We have
forward in time from initial conditions (the the data assimilation, incorporates a set of every expectation that all components of
diagnosis) to predict the future state of the numerical equations describing the physical the system, even with only currently fore-
atmosphere (the prognosis). The boldness laws that govern the evolution of the atmos- seen developments, will continue to
of this vision is stunning – Bjerknes’ phere. The final ingredient that we need to improve.
suggestion was made at a time when there consider is the computer system on which These skill improvements are truly
were no standardised routine observations, the NWP calculations are performed. The remarkable and they represent what is one
no internationally agreed units, no totality of observations, analysis, model and of the major scientific achievements of the
computers, and no established numerical computer system are what, in a traditional latter part of the last 100 years. Where will it
methods to solve the equations. The rest, perspective, constitute the forecast system. all end? Will we be able to eventually predict
as they say, is history. The production of the forecast is thus the the detailed weather a year in advance? This
In this essay a view is given about what process of integrating the model forward in leads us on to a further major scientific
might lie ahead for weather forecasting time given the initial conditions as achievement in our field and that is our
using numerical weather prediction (NWP). described by the analysis. ability to predict, at least in an approximate
(The important role of human forecasters in The quality of a forecast can be assessed way, what is the so-called limit of pre-
the production of the forecast is not dis- by calculation of a measure of the forecast dictability. We know because of chaos – the
cussed here only in the interests of brevity.) error – the difference between the forecast butterfly effect – that the atmosphere
This perspective has emerged from the and the analysis at the forecast time (but exhibits a dynamical sensitivity such that
international science community as it has note that one can also attempt to evaluate predictions must lose skill at some point
been developing a new World the forecast against the observations them- in the future, and the current thinking is
Meteorological Organization (WMO) selves). A way of summarising forecast skill that this limit might be about 14 days.
research programme. It provides what is to ask at which forecast lead-time (label Research is still needed to be able to say
seems to me to be a new way to think about this as T) does a given measure of the fore- more precisely what this limit might be.
the forecast process that could be described cast error first achieve a threshold value. For All components of the forecast system
as something of a paradigm shift in meteor- example, the forecast can be presumed to have uncertainties associated with them
ology. All views expressed here are offered have lost useful skill once the anomaly (and always will have). If we link the
to stimulate debate and they draw heavily correlation of the 500 mbar height surface existence of these uncertainties to the
on ideas developed by many scientists who of the forecast and the verifying analysis falls idea of chaos, it means that forecasts made
are contributing to the development of a below a value of 60%. Of course other, more using analyses and models within the
new global atmospheric research pro- complex, measures of forecast skill may be range of uncertainty will diverge, some-
gramme under WMO, called THORPEX – see more useful to assess the practical utility of times substantially, from one another
www.wmo.int/thorpex for further details. forecasts. through the forecast period. The forecast
THORPEX is a truly international research The change over the last decades of the system therefore needs to be able to
programme that involves as many nations as value of T as a summary of the skill of the describe a spread of possible outcomes.
can contribute to, and/or benefit from, forecast system has become a key output Consequently, a number of forecast centres
improved high-impact weather forecasts. In performance measure of the science of are now producing an ensemble of forecasts
preparing this article, special thanks go to meteorology. Using, as an illustration only, that differ because they start with slightly
Mel Shapiro who is co-chair, with me, of the the aforementioned anomaly correlation at different initial conditions or use slightly
THORPEX International Scientific Steering 500 mbar for the Northern Hemisphere, in different model formulations. This means
Committee and also to Lenny Smith, who 1980 T was 5 days, in 2000 it was 7 days and that some centres, such as the European
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Centre for Medium-Range Weather process and we hear nowadays about value- a skilful forecast of such an increase in
Forecasts (ECMWF), now have ensemble added services for the users/customers. demand can save electricity suppliers a
prediction systems that can estimate not More generally, business processes such as considerable amount. This is a radical shift
only the most likely outcome but also sales and marketing come in also. Even of thinking. High-impact weather is, of
the risk that meteorological conditions will the so-called public weather forecast needs course, an important and interesting
differ from the most likely ones. this step because the forecast model output natural phenomenon that affects society
Weather forecasting
Despite recent accelerations in the is in terms of quantities that we label substantially, but it is high-impact weather
improvement in forecast skill, it must be the temperature, wind etc., but which are not forecasts that help people to overcome the
case that in the longer term this rate of actually things we can measure with ther- detrimental effects, and utilise the beneficial
improvement will slow down. The maximum mometers or anemometers. The external effects, of weather. We should, therefore,
skill achievable is sometimes known as the factor in that case is the complex (nonlinear) move away from quoting the importance of
potential predictability and we know that transfer function that translates the coarse- weather to society in terms of billions of
it must be the case that forecast skill will grain model world into the real world. This is Euros from wind damage or floods, which is
eventually slow down as we approach the sometimes called model output statistics, of course valid but not much, if anything, to
potential predictability limit. Note that but that is to diminish its significance and do with meteorology as such, to quantifying
with slightly different initial conditions. system can be made interactive and the improve) the observational coverage there,
Sensitive perturbations can also be used to subsequent forecast be optimised for that and the second is to use the information
define localised sensitive regions in the particular user. about that region’s sensitivity to improve
atmosphere that vary in location from day This approach is already used by ECMWF the way that observations are used there in
to day with the atmospheric flow. Sensitive to generate the initial perturbations for their the data assimilation system. The former
regions are places in the atmosphere where ensemble system. However, in their case, approach involves targeting additional
if there are small errors in the analysis these currently, the user-defined location is most observations into sensitive regions whilst
will grow substantially to create large of the Northern Hemisphere and the time- the latter is called adaptive data assimilation.
forecast errors. A critical facet of sensitive period over which the perturbations are The scientific opportunities to develop the
Weather – December 2004, Vol. 59, No. 12
perturbations is that they are different for calculated is fixed at 48 hours. To have these methodologies of interactivity are both
every meteorological situation. aspects more specifically user-defined challenging and exciting and involve basic
The structure of these sensitive perturba- would mean that the ensemble forecast science.
tions is calculated in the following schematic produced from such targeted initial cond- How can we create additional observations
way. We can take our knowledge of the user itions would be, in some senses, targeted in sensitive zones? There are many ways
requirements for the forecast to specify a and thereby optimised for that use. available now and more we can conceive of
user-defined location within which a certain Research on this approach has been carried for future deployment. Instrumented air-
user-defined attribute of the forecast over a out using north-west Europe as the user- craft can fly to sensitive regions and release
user-defined time-range needs to be as defined location; so this is one way in which dropsondes to profile the atmosphere there.
accurate as possible. As an example we interactivity can be introduced. High-altitude balloons are being developed
could choose the UK as the location and the The perturbations that are calculated that could drift in the upper winds at, say,
two-day forecast of surface pressure as the from the test forecast are, at the initial time 100 mbar and from which dropsondes can
attribute (although few non-academic users of the forecast, located in relatively localised be released when they pass over sensitive
would worry about such a quantity!). It is regions. These are the sensitive regions regions – the driftsonde. Satellites can be
possible to calculate, using an NWP forecast where, if there is a significant analysis error operated (and indeed they can be moved)
model, the sensitive perturbations uniquely located there, the error will grow rapidly to with rapid scans for short periods when they
are over sensitive regions. Unmanned
New … New … New … New … New … New … New … New ... autonomous vehicles, such as the aero-
sonde, can be remotely piloted to sensitive
regions to collect measurements. Com-
mercial aircraft flight-level meteorological
measurements can be reported more
frequently in sensitive regions. Radiosondes
launched from merchant ships can be
deployed more frequently when the ship
enters such zones. Research experiments in
estimating the forecast skill improvements
resulting from such a targeting of observ-
ations have been carried out starting with
the Fronts and Atlantic Storm-Track
EXperiment in 1997, followed by other simi-
lar campaigns including, most recently, one
in the North Atlantic between mid-October
and mid-December 2003.
All these options for obtaining additional
observations are possible now and priorities
as to which to use could be made on the
basis of their cost relative to the information
generated. Given limited resources, however,
the idea of targeting the observing system
Over 30 years of QJ are now available on just five CDs in an attractive boxed leads to a possible unintended conse-
set (1971–2001). Presented in a fully indexed and searchable PDF format for quence, which must be avoided. There
viewing and printing. must be a good observing system in place
such that the test forecast, used to calculate
The RMetS Quarterly Journal is acknowledged as being one of the world’s sensitive perturbations, is accurate enough
leading meteorological journals. The CD boxed set is available from the Society that the predicted sensitive zones are
for just £50 (plus £1 p&p) indeed in about the right place. Redesign
of the global observing system must not
104 Oxford Road, Reading RG1 7LL mean that the fixed or non-adaptive
+44 (0)118 956 8500 component is reduced and certainly not to a
Or order directly online at www.rmets.org. point which compromises the quality of the
test forecast(s). There is pressure to better
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utilise the existing radiosonde network, for user-designed and user-specific forecasts. weather forecast wherever on the planet
example, by reducing coverage in some Even computer power may be targeted in and whenever it occurs. This could be
areas and increasing it in other more future if, as expected, grid (distributed) thought of as a form of international aid as
critical regions. Targeting methodologies computing allows more flexibility in the the highest-impact weather forecasts can
should help that process but subject to the availability of such power. Rather than affect the least-developed countries, which
overall quality constraint outlined here. It is produce a single definitive forecast to be are unable on their own to command the
Weather forecasting
simply not possible to determine the best interpreted by many users, we will be resources needed to produce such specific
targets for tomorrow without very good producing many different forecasts – one for forecasts for themselves.
observations for today. each user.
The use of observations in the data All this certainly sounds user-driven, but
assimilation system can be modified to take what about the public weather forecast
Reference
into account the location of sensitive where in some senses one is forecasting for Bjerknes, V. (1904) Das Problem der
Wettervorhersage, betrachtet vom
regions. For example, currently, not all a generic user often with an eye to weather Standpunkte der Mechanik und der
the available satellite measurements are warnings? Again, there is nothing to stop Phyisik. Meteorol. Z., 21, pp. 1–7 (English
used operationally, simply because of meteorological services from tailoring a translation by Mintz, Y. (1999) “The
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