Documenti di Didattica
Documenti di Professioni
Documenti di Cultura
East Asia
Author(s): David Martin Jones
Source: International Affairs (Royal Institute of International Affairs 1944-), Vol. 84, No.
4 (Jul., 2008), pp. 735-756
Published by: Wiley on behalf of the Royal Institute of International Affairs
Stable URL: http://www.jstor.org/stable/25144874
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Security and democracy:
the ASEAN charter and the dilemmas of
After forming the Association of South-East Asian Nations (ASEAN) in 1967, the
founding member states established a formula for governing the relations between
them as well as their relations with states external to the region. Elaborated in
the Treaty of Amity and Cooperation (TAC) of 1976 and reiterated in the Bali
Concord II of 2002, the formula established non-interference in the internal affairs
of member states as the premise of regional order.
Since the Asian financial crisis of 1997, however, and the subsequent internal
political changes that brought about a democratic transformation in the authori
tarian regime of Indonesia, the largest state of ASEAN and one of its founder
members, there has been pressure to modify the prevailing ASEAN norm and the
distinctive non-binding processes that govern the association's practice.
This pressure reflects a growing regional consciousness that the internal and
external security of the state have become increasingly interconnected. It also
coincides with the recognition, at least among the elites in the more developed
states of the grouping, that prospects for regional progress depend on, among
other things, the projection of a norm of political accountability into the regional
order.1
Furthermore, this consciousness accords with what the philosopher John Rawls
describes as
a recent dramatic shift in how many would like international law to be understood. Since
World War II international law has become stricter. It . . . tends to restrict a states right
to internal sovereignty. The role of human rights connects most obviously with the latter
change as part of the effort to provide a suitable definition and limit on a government's
internal sovereignty.2
John Rawls, The law of peoples (London: Harvard University Press, 2002), p. 30.
2 Ibid.
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David Martin f ones
3 The 'Table of ASEAN treaties/agreements and ratifications' updated to July 2005 reveals that, of the 138
agreements, declarations, memorandums of understanding, protocols and treaties governing inter-ASEAN
conduct or made between the organization and states external to it, 99 have been codified, ratified or declared
since 1997. See http://www.aseansec.org/Ratification/pdf, accessed 21 Dec. 2007.
4 The Vision sought 'to enhance economic cooperation through economic development strategies'. See http://
www.aseansec.org/1814.htm, accessed 12 July 2007.
5 See http://www.aseansec.org/18030.htm, accessed 13 July 2007.
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Security and democracy
of regional peace, and one that promotes democracy and fundamental freedoms.
Indeed, the simultaneous application of these norms, in a regional arrangement
where only a minority of states practise what might be construed as pluralistic
democracy, could promote incoherence rather than integration. How, we might
wonder, has this state of affairs come about?
The charter calls, somewhat ambiguously, for regional transformation. It seeks
a 'legal and institutional framework' for the 'promotion and protection of human
rights and fundamental freedoms', and commits the association to establishing 'a
human rights body'.7 In this, the charter echoes the more detailed recommenda
tions promulgated in The Report of the Eminent Persons' Group [EPG] on the ASEAN
Charter, published in December 2006. The report explicitly linked ASEAN's
continuing peace and stability to 'the active strengthening of democratic values,
good governance, [and the] rejection of unconstitutional and undemocratic change
of government'.9
To facilitate this transformation, the EPG additionally proposed that ASEAN's
procedure of non-binding consensus be changed. The report acknowledged that
the association's consensual style of decision-making had been helpful in reassuring
member states that their sovereignty and national interests would not be compro
mised; but, it continued, consensus should 'aid and not impede ASEAN's cohesion
and effectiveness'.I0 Reiterating the point more forcefully in its conclusion, the EPG
contended that 'ASEAN must establish a culture of honoring and implementing
its decisions and agreements and carrying them out in time'.11 To address this
longstanding weakness in ASEAN practice, the charter announced, again somewhat
ambivalently, an 'enhanced dispute settlement mechanism' and 'a formula for
flexible participation' in the building of an ASEAN economic community.12
The charter, then, not only enhances institutional capacity; it also seeks to
modify the norms that inform the association's diplomatic practices and facilitate
the eventual transformation of South-East Asia's sovereign and heterogeneous
states into a community governed by common rules. With a view to bringing
Charter of the Association of South-East Asian Nations (hereafter ASEAN charter), article i: 7, http://www.
aseansec.org/21069.pdf, accessed 12 July 2007.
7 ASEAN charter, preamble and articles 14: 1, 14: 2.
8 The Report ofthe Eminent Persons' Group on the ASEAN Charter, http ://www.aseansec.org/19247.pdf, accessed 16
Jan. 2008, p. 3.
9 Report ofthe Eminent Persons' Group, p. 3.
10 Report ofthe Eminent Persons' Group, paras 29 and 30, pp. 10-12.
11 Report ofthe Eminent Persons' Group, para. 44, p. 21.
12 The charter's article 21: 2 allows for the implementation of economic commitments by some member states?
'ASEAN minus X'?when all of the states cannot reach a consensus. See also article 24: 3.
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David Martin f ones
about such a transformation, the EPG recommended that ASEAN be given the
power 'to take measures to redress cases of serious breaches' of these new norms
and rules.13 And the charter does state, though again somewhat more cautiously
than the EPG report, that 'a serious breach of, or even mere 'non-compliance'
with, the charter 'shall be referred to the ASEAN Summit for decision'.14
The transformative politics elaborated in the EPG report, and codified in the
charter, anticipates a community of ASEAN peoples very different from the condi
tional and limited association that ASEAN's founding fathers envisaged in 1967. But
the question arises: Is such a political transformation feasible without dissolving the
original basis of association and fragmenting rather than unifying the region?
Central to both the notion that democracy promotes security and the notion that
its norms can shape regions and states is the assumption that different, but desir
able, social, political and economic goods are inherently compatible and causally
related. This universalist perspective relegates state sovereignty and its political
and economic autonomy to a second-order concern. The promotion of human
rights and democracy ultimately trumps the sovereign authority of the state.
Progress towards a more democratic, transparent, tolerant and pluralist regional
order, as encapsulated in an ASEAN charter, represents, from this perspective,
a plausible basis for a reasonably just regional 'society of peoples'.15 We should
therefore consider whether such a normative transformation, pursued without
addressing the particular and dramatically different economic and political
problems confronting the collocation of states that compose South-East Asia,
might constitute a security dilemma rather than a solution to the problem of a
common ASEAN identity. We may approach this question in two ways: first, in
terms of the theory and sociology of international relations upon which ASEAN
is premised, and second, with reference to the particular needs of the ASEAN
member states' discrete political and economic development, together with the
impact of the rising power of China on the region's political economy.
Ultimately, assertion of the universal compatibility of security and democracy
assumes a process of historical development towards an equal, free and just condi
tion. It further maintains that international law, globalization of communications
and liberal or cosmopolitan state practice converge to this progressive end. Such a
condition does not currently prevail in East or South-East Asia.
There is, of course, some evidence to support the view that 'constitutionally
secure liberal states have yet to have recourse to war with one another', and that
they solve their disagreements by rational negotiation rather than power politics.1
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Security and democracy
The structure of the post-Cold War world and the emergence of the net
work state
Philip Cerny has characterized the emerging post-Cold War politico-economic
structure as neo-medieval. By this he means a condition distinguished by overlap
ping jurisdictions and cross-cutting allegiances where the transnational character
of global exchanges undermines the traditional borders and allegiances of the
nation-state and 'de-concentrates' loyalty as it deracinates identities.1 New modes
of communication, most notably the internet, and the speed of physical and virtual
communication, have altered the character of political association and political
space.
Meanwhile, what Walter Russell Mead terms millennial capital, driven by the
development since 1990 of global financial markets, has undermined both state
and regionally focused capitalism. The Fordist contract with the nation-state,
which assumed that both worker and manager remained within a territory and
even a locality, no longer holds. This change has, Mead further contends, under
mined a key support for the presumed harmonic convergence between capitalism
and the social-democratic state, and is recasting socio-economic relations locally
and globally in an unprecedented manner. The new world of mobile workers and
capital cannot be covered by a cradle-to-grave state-based welfare blanket. Instead
millennial capital, crudely depicted in terms of globalization and deregulation, is
actually about regulation to protect the existence and efficiency of markets and
permit wider access to their benefits. As Mead explains, 'national regulation may
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David Martin Jones
be decreasing, but the rise of millennial capitalism is creating new forms of inter
national regulation that simply did not exist in the past. Free trade agreements
(notably bilateral rather than multilateral or regional) are much more than trade
agreements: they create new transnational forms of regulation and justice.'19
At the same time, the demographic changes that are currently redefining the
social and political character of citizenship in the neo-medieval context of the
post-Fordist era also affect millennial capitalism. The globalized division of labour
and the disappearance of the blue-collar working class in global capital cities have
significant implications for the modern state and the region it inhabits. As popula
tion growth shrinks and goes into reverse in many of the developed democratic
states in Europe and East Asia, the social arrangements that informed the democratic
consensus and convergence era become unsustainable in practice.
19 Walter Russell Mead, Power, terror, peace and war: America's grand strategy in a world at risk (New York: Alfred A.
Knopf, 2004), p. 74.
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Security and democracy
agreements to maximize trade, wealth and security. This trend has significantly
eroded regional and multilateral arrangements. The Asian financial crisis of 1997
and its repercussions, the spread of low-intensity violence, and the rise of China as
the globe's major manufacturer and consumer of natural resources have all contrib
uted to a loss of influence by Cold War and post-Cold War multilateral arrange
ments such as the UN, the EU, ASEAN, APEC and the WTO.
Durable disorder has had an ambivalent effect on both the growth prospects and
the amourpropre of ASEAN. Millennial capital initially bequeathed its blessings on
the emerging tiger economies of South-East Asia between 1985 and 1996, only to
demonstrate its inherent capriciousness in the course of the 1997 financial crisis.
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David Martin f ones
20 See Denis Hew, ed., Brick by brick: the building of the ASEAN economic community (Singapore: Asia Pacific Press,
2007), pp. 2-3.
21 Lorrell C. de Dios, 'Non tariff barriers to trade in the ASEAN priority goods sector', in Hew, ed., Brick by brick,
p. 101.
22 See Rina Oktaviani, Amzul Rifin and Henry Reinhardt, 'A review of regional tariffs and trade in the ASEAN
priority goods sector', in Hew, ed., Brick by brick, p. 63.
23 de Dios, 'Non tariff barriers to trade', p. 98.
24 Denis Hew, 'Introduction', in Hew, ed., Brick by brick, p. 9.
25 Sen Rahul and Das Sanchita Basu, 'ASEAN's FTA negotiations with dialogue partners', in Hew, ed., Brick by
brick, p. 177.
2 Hew, 'Introduction', p. 2.
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Security and democracy
Durable disorder has also given plausibility to those who offer a radical, mille
narian, Islamist alternative to the uncertainties generated by governments seen
as too market-friendly. In South-East Asia, this strand is evident in the transna
tional movement Jemaah Islamiya, dedicated to building a Darul Islam Nusantara,
reinvigorated separatist movements in Thailand and the Philippines, and a political
Islam that uses the democratic process to advance programmes to clean up the
corrupt legacy left by the 'pharaonic' ambitions of a Mahathir or Suharto and
to introduce a new and not particularly democratic, tolerant or pluralist political
morality.
The prospect that appeared plausible at the end of the Cold War, of a benign
end of history in which justice, peace, public reason, democracy, economic growth
and market integration would come together in a realizable political project, seems
indefinitely postponed. In a world of cultural particularity and market-driven
insecurity, would greater democracy either enhance ASEAN's security or promote
economic and political integration?
The ASEAN charter's desire to strengthen regional democracy reflects the
influence exercised over the grouping by Indonesia, the largest and most populous
member state. Indonesia intimated its interest in changing ASEAN practice when
it hosted the grouping in 2004 and proposed a security community that would
promote human rights, democracy and transparent communication between
members. In this project Indonesia receives support from the Philippines and
Thailand, which have similarly embraced an uncertain democratic transition.
From this perspective, strengthening democracy would both promote regional
integration and bring the association out of the political and economic shadow cast
across the region by the People's Republic of China.
Such an agenda, however, does not suit the majority of states in the association
or accord with traditional understandings of either power or diplomacy. Pragma
tism, the art of the politically possible, rather than abstract right, has traditionally
been upheld as the distinguishing feature of regional statesmanship. In classical
political thought, the wealth and harmony of the people reflect the virtu or skill of
the ruler or political elites. This hierarchical understanding nevertheless entailed
mutual obligations on the part of both ruler and ruled.27 ASEAN practice reflects
this relational view of power, and emphasizes consensus among members while
recognizing the limits it places on the pace of regional integration.
The durability of ASEAN reflects the reality of Asian power relations. The
limited project its founders realized was what was possible in the contingent
circumstances of decolonization in South-East Asia. It was not the product of a
normative concern with the rule of law or the consequence of an abstract pursuit
of democratic ideals.
27 In Indonesia, for example, the traditional practice of bapakism (paternalism) involves more than just a
patron?client relationship: it also entails an understanding of cooperative (gotong royong) deference arrived
at via consensus (musyawarah). Similarly, in Thailand rule requires a leader's karuna to guide and illuminate
his otherwise insecure followers. See Lucian W. Pye, Asian power and politics: the cultural dimensions of authority
(Cambridge, MA: Belknap, 1985), pp. 109?13. See also Roden Mas Koentjaraningrat, Javanese culture (Oxford:
Oxford University Press, 1990), p. 39, on the magical (sakti) and theatrical aspects of traditional rule.
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David Martin f ones
2 Michael Leifer, 'ASEAN's search for regional order', in Kin Wah Chin and Leo Suryadinata, eds, Michael
Leifer: selected works on South-East Asia (Singapore: Institute for South-East Asian Studies, 2005), p. 104. See also
Michael Leifer, 'The Indochina problem', in T. B. Millar and James Walter, eds, Asian-Pacific security after the
Cold War (St Leonards, NSW: Allen & Unwin, 1993), p. 68.
29 In this context, see the Declaration of ASEAN Concord II (Bali Concord II), Bali, Indonesia, 7 Oct. 2003,
which envisaged 'a dynamic, cohesive, resilient and integrated ASEAN community' (http://www.aseansec.
org/15159.htm, accessed 8 January 2008). See also 'ASEAN Vision 2020' (Hanoi, Dec. 1997), which envisaged
both a 'peaceful and stable South-East Asia . . . bound by a common regional identity' and the ASEAN
Regional Forum 'as an established means for confidence building and preventive diplomacy' (http://www.
aseansec.org/1814.htm, accessed 8 January 2008).
30 With the exception of the Philippines, where neither authoritarian nor democratic styles of government
succeeded in engineering significant economic growth.
31 Mahathir Mohamad, Reflections on ASEAN: selected speeches ofDr Mahathir Mohamad (Subang: Pelanduk, 2004),
p. 251.
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Security and democracy
basis of regional order. There are two reasons why this might be the case. First,
the flexible, but conservative, character of South-East Asian political culture is
resistant both to abstract rationalism and to the universal norms such rationalism
entails; and second, even if it were not, change in the direction of democracy
in an environment of economic uncertainty would have centrifugal rather than
centripetal consequences for regional order. Given in particular, as we shall see,
the rising regional economic influence of China and its political commitment to
the principle of non-interference as the basis of good neighbourliness, the promo
tion of democracy would create a fault-line in the association between the more
developed and less developed states, driving the latter into China's evolving sphere
of influence.
The downside of the elite-managed enterprise association state was the corrup
tion, cronyism and nepotism that the financial crisis exposed operating at various
levels of South-East Asian government?business relations. Lack of transparency
and of accountability have certainly had a negative effect upon the states comprising
32 Kishore Mahbubani has revived these ideas on East Asian style development in The new Asian hemisphere: the
irresistible shift of global power to the east (New York: Public Affairs, 2008).
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David Martin f ones
ASEAN and tarnished their lustre for foreign investors. The crisis delegitimated
the New Order regime in Indonesia and occasioned yet another round of
constitution-writing in Thailand. Yet in both these cases, and in the Philippines as
well, subsequent democratization has created no obvious elite or mass enthusiasm
for liberal democracy, greater pluralism or the uncertain outcomes that it generates.
A brief examination of these ASEAN cases in the next section illustrates why.
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Security and democracy
747
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David Martin f ones
Rak Thai party into a powerful engine of corporatist control, consolidating power
through three election victories between 2001 and 2006. Via the classic South-East
Asian combination of money politics, paternalism and largesse, especially to the
rural north-east, Thailand was developing along the technocratically guided lines
of single-party rule favoured by its most successful ASEAN neighbours, Malaysia
and Singapore.
However, increasing political control exacerbated conflict between Thaksin and
Bangkok's increasingly demonstrative middle class, culminating in a snap election
in April which the opposition?somewhat problematically, from a democratic
perspective?boycotted. The election, which Thaksin won, did little to enhance
his authority.
The subsequent coup reflected a short-lived alliance between pro-democracy
groups, the Bangkok elites and those around the king and his privy council who
exercise a patrimonial hold over the Bangkok masses. While the privy council and
the military had become increasingly concerned with law and order, particularly
Thaksin's inept handling of the separatist Pattani Muslim insurgency in the south,
the Bangkok middle class wanted greater freedom of expression and government
accountability.
In these circumstances the decision by the National Security Council in late
2006 to appoint an interim prime minister, to govern for a year under an interim
constitution, and nominate a 242-member legislative assembly, composed largely
of former military personnel, bureaucrats and academics, only exacerbated uncer
tainty. Civil society groups found themselves stuck between the rock that was
Thaksin and the hard place of reinvented elite guidance.
The fall and exile of Thaksin exposed a political dilemma. The middle classes
demanded a swift return to constitutional rule, yet new elections held in December
2007 only confirmed the mass appeal of Shinawatraism in the guise of Thaksin's
proxy, Samak Sandaravej's People Power Party.
The Thai elites have thus attempted to craft a political formula that combines
respect for the role of the monarchy and privy council with the liberal aspira
tions of the urban middle classes and the material needs of the rural masses while
excluding the possibility of single party dominance. Yet the electoral outcome,
in the form of a coalition headed by the People Power Party, has only generated
doubt about the stability of the latest constitution.
Evidently, as these three cases demonstrate, democratization does not neces
sarily afford greater security, enhance developmental prospects or attract foreign
investment.
What, then, of the very late-developing ASEAN states, all of authoritarian hue,
which have only recently subscribed to ASEAN on the grounds that it guaranteed
non-interference in their internal affairs?
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Security and democracy
749
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David Martin Jones
like Vietnam, Laos under the LPRP, following the example of the Soviet Union,
adopted market-oriented reforms after 1986.
The LPRP, however, maintains strict control over the developmental process.
Former President Kamtay Siphandone opened the country to foreign aid but
maintained the party's authoritarian grip, declaring in 1995 that criticism of the
party was 'contrary to historical reality and the national interest'.37 The strategy
has not been wholly ineffective. Rising from an admittedly very low base, growth
since 2004 has averaged over 7 per cent per annum, and industrial production now
supersedes that of agriculture. Forecasts estimate that FDI directed to the mining
and hydropower sectors will reach $327 million by 2007.3
Moreover, since joining ASEAN in 1995, Laos has deepened economic ties with
Thailand, China and Vietnam. Nine-tenths of Lao trade is covered by ASEAN's
common effective preferential tariff scheme, and Laos stands to benefit greatly
from a deeper integration in the proposed AFTA. Already, two-way trade between
Laos and Vietnam has grown exponentially, totalling $688 million between 2001
and 2005, and Vietnam, which hosted APEC in November 2006, supported Laotian
membership of the grouping. This notwithstanding, China and Thailand remain
Vientiane's key economic partners.39
Significantly, elections in April 2006 to the 115-member national assembly saw
the LPRP maintain its absolute dominance of the institutional landscape. This was
no doubt helped by the fact that it is the only legal party. Moreover, a generational
reshuffle in party leadership reflects the fact that 'the regime is confident their
system is working'.40 As Martin Stuart-Fox observes, the developmental outlook
'is for continuing tight party control, resistance to any kind of political reform or
transparency, encouragement of foreign investment and dependence on foreign
aid'.41
Guidance by a single Leninist party that has adapted to the demands of the
market since 1986 also characterizes Vietnam's political and economic evolu
tion. Indeed, Vietnam affords something of a model for the transitional ASEAN
economies. Embarking on a policy of doi moi, or economic renovation, after 1986,
Vietnam joined ASEAN in 1995. Subsequently Vietnam integrated rapidly into the
global economy. Since 2002 it has registered the fastest growth in South-East Asia,
at over 8 per cent per annum, and in November 2006 hosted the annual meeting
of leaders of APEC, an organization it only joined in 1998. Vietnamese growth is,
like that of its more developed ASEAN partners, export-oriented and dependent
on FDI.
37 'Lao Communist Party chief steps down but reforms unlikely', Agence France Presse, 21 March 2006.
38 The Director General of the Department of Geology and Mines estimated that the country generated over
$200 million in mineral export revenues by the second quarter of 2006.
39 'Laos risk summary', Asia Monitor 17, 6 Aug. 2006. Thailand is particularly invested in Laotian infrastructure
and hydroelectric projects, and remains the landlocked state's primary commercial partner. See also Saw Swee
Hock, Sheng Lijun and Chin Kin Wah, eds, Asean?China relations: realities and prospects (Singapore: Institute for
South-East Asian Studies, 2005), p. 52.
40 'Lao Communist Party chief steps down but reforms unlikely'.
41 Quoted in Denis D. Gray, 'Communist Party to continue tight control over Laos', Associated Press, 22 March
2006.
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Security and democracy
Ironically, the United States, the country against which the Vietnamese
Communist Party fought its war of liberation until 1975, is now its major trading
partner. The permanent normalizing of trade relations with the United States
in December 2006, a crucial precursor to Vietnam's entry into the WTO in late
2006, improved the country's growth prospects and enhanced its attractiveness to
foreign investors.42
The party has thus managed to sustain export-oriented development since 1986.
In April 2006, as in Laos, the party appointed a new guard of younger leaders
committed both to quickening the pace of the country's economic transforma
tion and to maintaining the party's control of the process. As Pham The Duyet,
chairman of the Vietnam Fatherland Front, explained, 'There cannot be any
multiparty system, it is a matter of principle.'43
The April 2006 party congress consequently devoted itself to enhancing 'party
leadership and combative strength'. This was not entirely surprising, as the congress
and the leadership reshuffle coincided with the revelation of a major corruption
scandal that permeated the upper echelons of the party.44 As Carl Thayer has
observed, the unaccountability of the party and politburo renders such struc
tural corruption a continuing drag on Vietnam's growth prospects. Yet notwith
standing this inevitable downside to party-led growth and the opacity that goes
with it, bureaucratically led development remains central to Vietnam's stability
and continuing attractiveness to FDI.
A similar case of non-liberal development producing overall utility-maximizing
outcomes could not be made for Burma/Myanmar's State Peace and Development
Council (SPDC). Myanmar's human rights record places it in the category of
'outlaw' or failed states. As the US Secretary of State Condoleezza Rice observed
in March 2006, Myanmar 'is now out of step with the entire modern experience
of the region'.45
The military junta that has ruled Myanmar since 1962 took the country into
ASEAN in 1997. ASEAN's constructive engagement with the SPDC since then has
failed to modify its arbitrary exercise of power.46 ASEAN has had minimal impact
upon the reclusive leadership of a state where 'child and forced labour is common.
Aid workers are treated with suspicion, foreign journalists are blacklisted, local
media is censored and giving information to outsiders is a jailable offence.'47
Indeed, since Senior General Than Shwe assumed chairmanship of the SPDC in
2002 the regime has become a virtual autocracy.
42 'US, Vietnam hail vote to normalize trade relations', Financial Times, 12 Dec. 2006.
43 'Vietnam Congress mixes old with new', http ://newsvote.bbc.uk/mpapps/pagetools/print/news.bbc.uk/2/hi/
asia-pacific/49417, accessed 29 Sept. 2006.
44 The scandal, revealed in the normally docile state-controlled press, centred upon the Transport Ministry
project management bureau known as PMU-18, which manages over $2 billion worth of infrastructure
contracts. Rather than building roads, senior members of the ministry instead gambled over US$7 million on
European soccer matches.
45 Anthony Paul, 'Myanmar's capital: a bunker too far?' Straits Times, 24 March 2006.
4 It took power when the military junta cancelled the 1990 election result, which gave a landslide victory to the
opposition National League for Democracy.
47 Connie Levett, 'A land where freedom is a dirty word', Sydney Morning Herald, 20 May 2006.
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David Martin Jones
4 Sean Turnell, 'Burma's economy 2004 crisis making stagnation', in Trevor Wilson, ed., Myanmar's long road to
national reconciliation (Singapore: Asia?Pacific Press,), p. 77.
49 See Lee Siew Hua, 'Myanmar to accept global aid via ASEAN', Straits Times, 20 May 2008.
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Security and democracy
50 Suthiphand Chirathivat, 'ASEAN-China FTA: opportunities, modalities and prospects,' in Saw, Sheng and
Chin, ASEAN-China relations, p. 240. The FTA affects the original members of ASEAN plus Brunei from 2010,
the more recent members from 2015.
51 Suthiphand, 'ASEAN-China FTA', p. 230.
52 Shen Danyang, 'ASEAN?China FTA', in Saw, Sheng and Chin, ASEAN?China relations, p. 220.
53 Thus FDI in ASEAN fell from US$15 billion to US$14 billion between 2001 and 2002, while FDI in China rose
to US$53 billion over the same period. See UNCTAD, World Investment Report (Geneva, 2003), p. 41.
54 Suthiphand, 'ASEAN-China FTA', p. 235.
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David Martin f ones
With the benefit of hindsight it is now clear that the Asian financial crisis of 1997
afforded a salutary example of how different the post-Cold War era of millennial
capital is from its statist predecessor.55 In the wake of the crisis it was assumed
that the East and South-East Asian development model needed radical political
and economic restructuring. This was both the condition and the substance of
IMF prescriptions for bailing out the liquidity-challenged Thai and Indonesian
economies after 1997.
In the post-1997 global economic environment, the ruling elites of both high
performing and less vibrant South-East Asian economies adjusted to a new world
order of footloose and relatively cheap money, and an emerging transnational
condition, increasingly financially and economically interconnected but by no
means integrated.
Durable disorder, has, moreover, rendered developing and developed South
East Asia more, rather than less, dependent upon, anxious about and exposed to the
vagaries of the fast-moving world of stock exchanges that never sleep and the need
to attract FDI to sustain growth. Regimes that successfully adapt to the new global
political economy must cultivate political stability and a degree of transparency,
remain open to the market, and possess the techno-managerial capacity to adjust
flexibly both to the risks?the epiphenomenal downside of the new condition?
and the opportunities for growth and trade offered by increased connectivity.5
Certainly since 1997 we can identify South-East Asian states adjusting the shape
of the state, with varying degrees of competence, to the testing requirements
of this new environment. The regimes range from the autocratic military junta
ruling Myanmar, through uncertain coalitions in Cambodia, former communist
parties adjusting to the market in Laos and Vietnam, presidential or parliamentary
constitutional systems with multiparty assemblies in the Philippines, Indonesia
and, since 2007, Thailand, and consolidated parliamentary systems dominated by a
single party in both Malaysia and Singapore, to an absolute sultanate in Brunei.
South-East Asia, has, therefore, adjusted with difficulty to the financial crisis of
1997. The outcome has demonstrated a cultural preference for an administrative
rather than a liberal, pluralist or democratic state system as the basis for managing
the effects of millennial capital. This non-liberal model, however, cannot be purely
autocratic, autarkic, secretive or unaccountable. The failing state of Myanmar and
the developmental difficulties faced by Cambodia and even Vietnam illustrate the
limitations of such an approach. At the same time, a multiparty model with a liberal
constitution has failed to demonstrate its effectiveness. The recent history of the
Philippines, Thailand and Indonesia evinces an elite suspicion of this democratic
formula.
The most successful model is a technocratic, administrative one that embraces
flexible and pragmatic leadership by a dominant party, subject to a mechanism of
regular elections and a degree of economic transparency. Classically exemplified by
55 Mead, Power, terror, peace and war, pp. 73?7.
56 The threats posed include transnational terror, crime, and increased environmental and biological risk.
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Security and democracy
the city-state of Singapore (although its lineaments are apparent also in Malaysia,
Thailand, Indonesia, the Philippines and Vietnam), the model offers a form of
non-liberal administration that requires controlled or responsible media; regular
elections; market accountability; and technocratic guidance over time to achieve
developmental targets. Indeed, Singapore's successful mix of social and political
control with a degree of transparency and economic accountability represents a
stable long-term developmental model. The political formula achieved recognizes
a felt need to maintain cohesion in the face of global and regional uncertainty. The
strategy reflects an elite pact that combines ethnic, religious, economic and military
interests in a developmental coalition. This pact is one which other economically
progressive states of South-East Asia seek to craft in their own polities.
It is not a formula that the promotion of abstract democratic values normatively,
or supranationally, will evidently enhance. Instead of strengthening democracy,
ASEAN urgently needs to achieve an integrated South-East Asian market. In
other words, ASEAN chartism should focus on designing an effective institutional
structure rather than on promoting idealist abstractions. A 'stable, prosperous and
highly competitive ASEAN region in which there is a free flow of goods, services
[and] investment', the ostensible aim of the Declaration of ASEAN Concord in
2003, requires an impartially administered framework of rules.57
Currently, however, ASEAN is hindered by a fragmented market character
ized by 'high transaction costs, and an unpredictable policy environment'.58 As the
Report of the Eminent Persons Group on the ASEAN Charter (2006) lamented, 'ASEAN's
problem is not one of lack of vision, ideas or action plans. The problem is one
of ensuring compliance.'59 Here, ASEAN processes of non-binding consensus
only reinforce its member states' continuing dependence on external markets
and FDI, inhibiting the creation of a potentially integrated region of 550 million
consumers.
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David Martin f ones
Conclusion
Regional order built contingently upon the pragmatic decisions of state elites
has been the condition for regional growth and development in South-East Asia.
The realization of this order represents both an important achievement in itself,
recognized as such by an earlier generation of statesmen, and the establishment
of a basis on which the association's widely disparate member states could each
pursue export-oriented growth and political development in its own culturally
distinct manner. The sovereignty of the member state has been the condition of
this successful, growth-oriented order. Moreover, it was the prudent behaviour
of state elites building on the distinct cultural traditions, experiences and practices
of the region, seeking to achieve a regime that was practicable in the circum
stances rather than to pursue abstract norms, reason or any commitment to a
historically realizable ideological process, that achieved this order.
The abstract application of norms of democratic accountability and interna
tional law via a supranational ASEAN mechanism would erode the state sover
eignty central to the stability of this pragmatically achieved condition. Making the
state basis of the order conform to an abstract rational standard would in practice
create uncertainty among the organization's membership and, while no doubt
improving levels of democracy, would not necessarily enhance security. Given that
the most successfully developed members of ASEAN follow non-liberal modes of
political organization, and that liberal democracy has done little to secure stability,
justice or growth in the developmental practice of those states that have toyed
with it, there is no reason to expect the promotion of liberal democracy through
an ASEAN charter might enhance its success. It might even promote disintegra
tion rather than the wished-for integrated community: first, because democracy
promotion would facilitate the activities of those non-liberal communalist senti
ments that seek to recast the political boundaries and political values of the region
by cultivating democratic means in order to achieve radically destabilizing ends;
and second, because it would mark a democratizing fault-line between the less and
more developed ASEAN states, paradoxically undermining in the process the very
aims of the charter.
Given China's size and growing regional hegemony, recourse to ASEAN charter
mechanisms to strengthen democracy would not evidently improve the prospects
for ASEAN's political or economic integration. Therefore, ASEAN needs more
urgently to devote its attention to what is both economically feasible and utility
maximizing in South-East Asia. To the extent that it modifies norms as part of a
disposition to improve upon what it has achieved, it needs to do this in the light
of its practical experience. In this context, enhancing mechanisms that promote
the integration of a single market are more in keeping with the prudential ends
of building regional cooperation than any abstract rationalist assault on the sover
eignty of member states.
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