EJERCICIO DE ANALISIS DE FRECUENCIAS

Tabla N° 1 Datos del ejercicio

ANALISIS DE FRECUENCIAS
HIDROLOGICAS
ID AÑO Xi (mm) (Xi-Xmed)^2
1 1951 18,8 6,98
2 1952 16 0,02
3 1953 13,5 7,06
4 1954 14 4,66
5 1955 18 3,39
6 1956 15,5 0,43
7 1957 17,7 2,38
8 1958 14 4,66
9 1959 16,9 0,55
10 1960 14 4,66
11 1961 20,4 18,00
12 1962 18,5 5,49
13 1963 16,4 0,06
14 1964 14,9 1,58
15 1965 20 14,76
16 1966 21,2 25,42
17 1967 11,4 22,64
18 1968 13,5 7,06
19 1969 19,5 11,17
20 1970 15,3 0,74
21 1971 18,5 5,49
22 1972 11,1 25,58
23 1973 14 4,66
24 1974 13,3 8,17
25 1975 18,8 6,98
26 1976 14,9 1,58
Suma 420,1 194,16
Media 16,16
Desviacion St 2,79
Fuente. Elaboración propia
Cálculos manuales para la distribución de gumbel

Tabla N°2 Cálculos lluvia máxima para diferentes periodos de retorno

Tr (años) 2 5 2,33 10 50 100
Y 0,367 1,5 0,579 2,25 3,902 4,6
Yn 0,532 0,532 0,532 0,532 0,532 0,532
Sn 1,096 1,096 1,096 1,096 1,096 1,096
K -0,15 0,88 0,04 1,57 3,07 3,71
X 15,74 18,62 16,28 20,53 24,73 26,50
X(mm/h) 94,43 111,71 97,66 123,16 148,36 159,01
Fuente. Elaboración propia
Los valores de Y, Yn y Sn se encuentran en la siguiente Tabla
Tabla N°4 Valores para distribución de gumbel

Fuente. Tabla brindada por el docente

Ejemplos de cálculo para Tr=2.33:

𝑌 − 𝑌𝑛
𝐾=
𝑆𝑛
0.579 − 0.532
𝐾=
1.096
𝐾 = 0.04
X (TR) =𝑋̅ + 𝐾 ∗ 𝑆𝑥
X (2.33) =16.16 + 0.04 ∗ 2.79
X (2.33) =16.28 ∗ 6 = 97.66 𝑚𝑚/ℎ

Cálculos con HEC-SSP para la distribución de log Pearson II

-----------------------------

General Frequency Analysis

16 mar 2017 04:45 PM

-----------------------------

--- Input Data ---

Analysis Name: logpearson

Description:

Data Set Name: cuenca-FLOW-PEAK

DSS File Name: C:\Users\USUARIO\Documents\HEC\Ejercicio_2-\Ejercicio_2-.dss

DSS Pathname: ///FLOW-PEAK//IR-CENTURY//

Start Date:

End Date:

Project Path: C:\Users\USUARIO\Documents\HEC\Ejercicio_2-

Report File Name: C:\Users\USUARIO\Documents\HEC\Ejercicio_2-

\GeneralFrequencyResults\logpearson\logpearson.rpt

Result File Name: C:\Users\USUARIO\Documents\HEC\Ejercicio_2-

\GeneralFrequencyResults\logpearson\logpearson.xml

Plotting Position Type: Weibull

Probability Distribution Type: Pearson Type III

Use Log Transform

Upper Confidence Level: 0.05

Lower Confidence Level: 0.95

Skew Option: Use Station Skew

Regional Skew: ---

Regional Skew MSE: ---

Display ordinate values using 1 digits in fraction part of value

--- End of Input Data ---

----------------------

<< Low Outlier Test >>

----------------------

Based on 24 events, 10 percent outlier test deviate K(N) = 2,467

Computed low outlier test value = 10,18

0 low outlier(s) identified below test value of 10,18

-----------------------

<< High Outlier Test >>

-----------------------

Based on 24 events, 10 percent outlier test deviate K(N) = 2,467

Computed high outlier test value = 24,69

0 high outlier(s) identified above test value of 24,69

--- Final Results ---

<< Plotting Positions >>

cuenca-FLOW-PEAK

--------------------------------------------------------------------

| Events Analyzed | Ordered Events |

| FLOW | Water FLOW Weibull |

| Day Mon Year cms | Rank Year cms Plot Pos |

|---------------------------|--------------------------------------|

| 31 dic 1969 21,2 | 1 -1 21,2 4,00 |

| 31 dic 1969 20,4 | 2 -1 20,4 8,00 |

| 31 dic 1969 20,0 | 3 -1 20,0 12,00 |

| 31 dic 1969 19,5 | 4 -1 19,5 16,00 |

| 31 dic 1969 18,8 | 5 -1 18,8 20,00 |

| 31 dic 1969 18,5 | 6 -1 18,5 24,00 |

| 31 dic 1969 18,5 | 7 -1 18,5 28,00 |

| 31 dic 1969 18,0 | 8 -1 18,0 32,00 |

| 31 dic 1969 17,7 | 9 -1 17,7 36,00 |

| 31 dic 1969 16,9 | 10 -1 16,9 40,00 |

| 31 dic 1969 16,4 | 11 -1 16,4 44,00 |

| 31 dic 1969 16,0 | 12 -1 16,0 48,00 |

| 31 dic 1969 15,5 | 13 -1 15,5 52,00 |

| 31 dic 1969 15,3 | 14 -1 15,3 56,00 |

| 31 dic 1969 14,9 | 15 -1 14,9 60,00 |

| 31 dic 1969 14,0 | 16 -1 14,0 64,00 |

| 31 dic 1969 14,0 | 17 -1 14,0 68,00 |

| 31 dic 1969 14,0 | 18 -1 14,0 72,00 |

| 31 dic 1969 14,0 | 19 -1 14,0 76,00 |

| 31 dic 1969 13,5 | 20 -1 13,5 80,00 |

| 31 dic 1969 13,5 | 21 -1 13,5 84,00 |

| 31 dic 1969 13,3 | 22 -1 13,3 88,00 |

| 31 dic 1969 11,4 | 23 -1 11,4 92,00 |

| 31 dic 1969 11,1 | 24 -1 11,1 96,00 |

|---------------------------|--------------------------------------|
<< Skew Weighting >>

-----------------------------------------------------------------

Based on 24 events, mean-square error of station skew = 0,224

Mean-square error of regional skew = -?

-----------------------------------------------------------------

<< Frequency Curve >>

cuenca-FLOW-PEAK

-------------------------------------------------------------------

| Computed Expected | Percent | Confidence Limits |

| Curve Probability | Chance | 0,05 0,95 |

| FLOW, cms | Exceedance | FLOW, cms |

|-------------------------|-------------|-------------------------|

| 25,4 --- | 0,2 | 30,0 22,8 |

| 24,3 --- | 0,5 | 28,3 22,0 |

| 23,4 --- | 1,0 | 27,0 21,3 |

| 22,5 --- | 2,0 | 25,6 20,6 |

| 21,1 --- | 5,0 | 23,6 19,5 |

| 19,9 --- | 10,0 | 21,9 18,5 |

| 18,5 --- | 20,0 | 20,1 17,3 |

| 16,0 --- | 50,0 | 17,0 15,0 |

| 13,7 --- | 80,0 | 14,6 12,6 |

| 12,6 --- | 90,0 | 13,5 11,3 |

| 11,7 --- | 95,0 | 12,7 10,4 |

| 10,2 --- | 99,0 | 11,3 8,7 |

|-------------------------|-------------|-------------------------|

<< Systematic Statistics >>

cuenca-FLOW-PEAK

----------------------------------------------------------------

| Log Transform: | |

| FLOW, cms | Number of Events |

|------------------------------|-------------------------------|

| Mean 1,200 | Historic Events 0 |

| Standard Dev 0,078 | High Outliers 0 |

| Station Skew -0,208 | Low Outliers 0 |

| Regional Skew --- | Zero Events 0 |

| Weighted Skew --- | Missing Events 0 |

| Adopted Skew -0,208 | Systematic Events 24 |

|------------------------------|-------------------------------|

--- End of Analytical Frequency Curve ---

Note: No ordinates specified for graphical frequency curve