CEYLON ELECTRICITY BOARD

Sri Lanka’s Power

Generation Expansion
Planning

Eng. Buddhika Samarasekara

Chief Engineer (Generation Planning)

Transmission and Generation Planning Branch

Transmission Division
Ceylon Electricity Board
Sri Lanka

May 2017
 INTRODUCTION SRI LANKA
 Total Area : 65,610 km2
 Land Area : 62,705 km2
 Population : 21.2 million
 Urban : 18.3% Rural : 81.7%
 Population Density : 338 per/ sqkm
 Labour Force : 8.311 million
 Unemployment rate : 4.4%
 Literacy rate : 93.3%
 Life expectancy: 72 yrs (M), 78 yrs (F)
 Monetary Unit : Sri Lankan Rupee
(1 USD = 150 LKR at Jan 2017)
 Gross Domestic Product : 11,839 billion LKR
(Market Prices)
 GDP per capita : 3,835 US$ (Market Prices)
 GDP structure 2016
 Agriculture – 7.1% Industry – 26.8%
 Services – 56.5% Taxes less subsidies on products – 9.6%
SRI LANKAN POWER SECTOR

 Installed capacity 4065 MW

 Peak Demand 2483 MW

 Electricity Generated 14249 GWh

 System Losses 10.28 %

 Elec. Consumption per Capita 603 kWh

 Level of Electrification 98.71%

(June 2016)
 DISCUSSION TOPICS

• Generation Planning Methodology & Tools

• Scenario Analysis

• Contingency Analysis

• NDC Planning

4
 DIMENSIONS OF ELECTRIC SYSTEM PLANNING
Short Medium Long
(<5 years) (5-10 years) (>10 years)
CATEGORY OF ELECTRIC

Demand
AREA OF INTEREST
SYSTEM PLANNING

IN GENERATION
EXPANSION PLANNING
Generation

AREA OF INTEREST
Transmission IN TRANSMISSION
PLANNING

Distribution

5
LONG-TERM GENERATION EXPANSION PLAN
• Planning Period: 20 Years (2018-2037)

• Study Period: 25 Years (2018-2042)

• Planning Criteria:

– Loss of Load Probability: Maximum 1.5%

– Reserve Margin: Minimum 2.5% & Maximum 20%.

• Unserved Energy Cost

2011 value (Reference-PUCSL ) - 0.5 $/kWh
2017 escalated Value - 0.663 $/kWh (98.07 Rs/kWh)

• Discount Rate
– 10% discount rate

6
 STUDY PROCESS
 Preparation of Demand Forecast
 Update existing and committed generating system data
 Screen available generating technology options
 Assess the hydro system capabilities using SDDP model
 Study on Integration of Renewable Based Generation
 Formulate and prepare the generation expansion plan
using WASP IV (In future Optgen-sddp Model)
 Analysis of robustness and feasibility of the plan
 Contingency Analysis

7
DEMAND FORECAST 2018-2042

8
 BASE FORECAST
Base Load Forecast = Time Trend Forecast + (Econometric Forecast + External Effects)
External effects of the Temperature variation and Tariff adjustments were analyzed and
considered.
Year 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021
All Distribution Divisions (GWh) 14,967 16,171 17,282 18,704* 19,822*
Time Trend (GWh) 15,160 16,188 17,285 18,456 19,370

55000
50000 Base Load Forecast
21,000
45000 Distribution Divions Forecast All Distribution Divisions (GWh)
20,000
40000 Time Trend Forecast (GWh)
19,000

Generation (GWh)
Generation (GWh)

35000
18,000
30000
17,000
25000
16,000
20000
15,000
15000
14,000
10000 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021
Year

Year

*These two figures are high due to the consideration of the demands of Megapolis Projects and
9
other new developments. However, average 5.9% growth is forecast during 2018-2022.
LONG TERM FORECAST
Methodology

• Econometric modelling has been adopted by CEB for the PERIOD 2021-2040
• Sales figures of the past were analysed against following independent
variables.

• GDP Per Capita Domestic

• Number of Domestic Consumer Accounts in previous year Sector

• Industrial Sector Gross Domestic Product Industrial

• Previous year Electricity demand of Industrial consumer category Sector

• Service Sector Gross Domestic Product Commercial

• Previous year Electricity demand in Commercial consumer category Sector

• Time-trend analysis Other10

 ACTUAL AND FORECAST ENERGY/PEAK DEMAND
As per Draft LTGEP 2018-2037
50000 9000

45000 Actual Forecast 8000

40000 7000
35000
6000

Demand (MW)
30000
Energy (GWh)

5000
25000
4000
20000
Generation 3000
15000
Peak Demand
10000 2000

5000 1000

0 0

11
BASE DEMAND FORECAST
Demand Net Loss* Net Generation Peak Demand
Year
(GWh) (%) (GWh) (MW)
2017 13656 9.92 15160 2585
2018 14588 9.88 16188 2738
2019 15583 9.84 17285 2903
2020 16646 9.81 18456 3077
2021 17478 9.77 19370 3208
2022 18353 9.73 20331 3346
2023 19273 9.69 21342 3491
2024 20242 9.65 22404 3643
2025 21260 9.61 23522 3804
2026 22332 9.58 24697 3972
2027 23459 9.54 25933 4149
2028 24639 9.50 27225 4335
2029 25867 9.46 28570 4527
2030** 27164 9.42 29990 4726
2031 28388 9.38 31328 4939
2032 29637 9.35 32692 5157
2033 30926 9.31 34099 5381
2034 32251 9.27 35546 5612
2035 33642 9.23 37063 5854
2036 35090 9.19 38642 6107
2037 36613 9.15 40302 6372
2038 38165 9.12 41992 6642
2039 39733 9.08 43699 6915
2040 41324 9.04 45431 7193
2041 42967 9.02 47227 7481
2042 44700 9.00 49121 7784
5 Year Average Growth (2018-2022) 5.9% 5.9% 5.1%
10 Year Average Growth (2018-2027) 5.4% 5.4% 4.7%
20 Year Average Growth (2018-2037) 5.0% 4.9% 4.5%
25 Year Average Growth (2018-2042) 4.8% 4.7% 4.4%
* Net losses include losses at the Transmission & Distribution levels and any non-technical losses, Generation (Including auxiliary consumption) losses are
12
excluded. This forecast will vary depend on the hydro thermal generation mix of the future.
** It is expected that day peak would surpass the night peak from this year onwards
GENERATION OPTIONS

13
EXPECTED HYDRO ENERGY POTENTIAL
6,000

Annual Total Average

5,000

4050 GWh
4,000
GWh

3,000

2,000

1,000

0
1%
4%
7%

100%
10%
13%
16%
19%
22%
25%
28%
31%
34%
37%
40%
43%
46%
49%
52%
55%
58%
61%
64%
67%
70%
73%
76%
79%
82%
85%
88%
91%
94%
97%
Obtained using SDDP Model
FUTURE GENERATION OPTIONS -CONVENTIONAL
Candidate Hydro Plants
• Seethawaka Hydro Power Plant - 20MW / 48GWh
• Gin Ganga Hydro Power plant - 20MW / 66GWh
• Thalpitigala Hydro Power Plant - 15MW / 52.4GWh

Candidate Thermal Plants

 35 MW Auto Diesel fired gas turbines
 105 MW Auto Diesel fired gas turbines
 150 MW Auto Diesel fired combined cycle plants
 300 MW Auto Diesel fired combined cycle plants
 300 MW Coal fired Power Plants
 600MW Super Critical Coal fired Power Plant
 300 MW Natural Gas fired combined cycle plants
 600 MW Nuclear plants

15
 SCREENING CURVES
Thermal Generation Options
140.00
GT35 MW
GT105 MW
120.00
CCY150 MW
FO Engines 15MW
100.00
CCY300 MW
Unit Cost (UScts/kWh)

Nuclear 600MW
80.00 LNG 150MW
LNG 300 MW
60.00 SUPC 600MW
New Coal 300 MW
40.00

20.00

0.00
0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60% 70% 80%
Plant Factor (%)
16
SCREENING CURVES
Other Renewable Options
70.00

Solar with battery 10MW (Solar Capital Cost = USD 1400/kW)

60.00
Dendro 5 MW
Solar with battery 10MW (Solar Capital Cost = USD 900/kW)
50.00
Solar 10MW (Capital Cost = USD 1400/kW)
Unit Cost (UScts/kWh)

40.00 Solar 10MW (Capital Cost = USD 900/kW)

Wind 20MW
30.00

20.00

10.00

0.00
0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60% 70% 80% 90%
Plant Factor (%)

17
OTHER RENEWABLE ENERGY MODELLING

18
 LOAD CURVE
Inclusion of ORE in the Long Term Generation Expansion Plan
According to the estimated wind and solar resource profiles, the demand
profiles were modified to reflect both capacity and energy contributions
from these ORE power plants.
3500
3000
2500
Load/MW

2000
1500
1000
500
0

Time

3500 Wind & Solar

3000 Other
2500
Load/MW

2000
1500
1000
500
0

Time
19
 LOAD CURVE
Maximum Wind & Solar Contribution
3000
Wind & Solar
2500
Other
2000
Load/MW

1500

1000

500

Minimum Wind & Solar Contribution Time

3500
Wind & Solar
3000
Other
2500
Load/MW

2000

1500

1000

500

Time
20
 LOAD DURATION CURVE
Inclusion of ORE in the Long Term Generation Expansion Plan
According to the adjusted demand profiles, the Load Duration Curves (LDC)
were adjusted and used as inputs for expansion studies.
1.00
After Wind+Solar adjustment

0.80
Original

0.60
PU Load

0.40

0.20

0.00
0.00 0.10 0.20 0.30 0.40 0.50 0.60 0.70 0.80 0.90 1.00
PU Time

LTGEP 2018-2037
• 300 LDC’S represents 25 year planning horizon instead of 25 LDC’s used in
previously.
• Both Capacity and Energy Contribution taken in to consideration. 21
PROJECTED DEVELOPMENT OF OTHER RE
Based on RE Integration Study 2016/17
Cumulative Total
Wind Biomass Solar Share of NCRE
Mini Hydro NCRE Capacity
Year (MW) (MW) (MW) from Total
(MW) Total NCRE
Generation
(MW)
2018 344 144 39 210 737 13%
2019 359 194 44 305 902 14%
2020 374 414 49 410 1246 18%
2021 384 489 54 465 1392 19%
2022 394 539 59 471 1463 20%
2023 404 599 64 526 1592 20%
2024 414 644 69 581 1708 20%
2025 424 729 74 685 1912 21%
2026 434 729 79 740 1982 20%
2027 444 754 84 795 2076 20%
2028 454 799 89 900 2242 20%
2029 464 824 94 954 2336 20%
2030 474 894 99 1009 2476 20%
2031 484 929 104 1064 2580 20%
2032 494 974 104 1119 2691 20%
2033 504 1044 109 1173 2830 20%
2034 514 1114 109 1229 2965 20%
2035 524 1184 114 1283 3105 20%
2036 534 1279 114 1338 3265 20%
2037 544 1349 119 1442 3454 20.6%
22
PROJECTED DEVELOPMENT OF OTHER RE
10000 30.0%
Solar (MW) Wind (MW)
9000 Biomass (MW) Mini Hydro (MW)
25.0%
8000 Other renewable energy share (%)

7000
20.0%
6000

Energy Share (%)

Energy (GWh)

5000 15.0%

4000
10.0%
3000

2000
5.0%
1000

0 0.0%
2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025 2026 2027 2028 2029 2030 2031 2032 2033 2034 2035 2036 2037
Year

23
FORMULATE AND PREPARE THE GENERATION
EXPANSION PLAN

24
 WASP-IV METHODOLOGY
WASP determines the Generating System Expansion Plan that
meets demand at minimum cost, while satisfying certain user
specified constraints for the system:
OUTPUT
INPUT Time
Load forecast
Existing system
Candidate units
Constraints
• Reliability WASP-IV
• Build schedule
• Implementation
• Generation
• Environment
• Fuel availability • Fuel consumption
etc. • Costs
• Emissions
Cost Function Minimization Using Linear Programming Method

25/40
DETERMINATION OF NECESSARY CAPACITIES
MW Annual peak load +
Maximum reserve margin

Critical LOLP

Area of optimization
Annual peak load +
WASP optimal capacity Minimum reserve margin

New necessary capacity

Annual peak load

Capacity of existing system

Years
26/40
DISPATCH ANALYSIS
 Operational Study
Long Term- Hydro Thermal Optimization (SDDP Software)
• Optimum use of hydro resource and the corresponding operation of
thermal power plants are simulated at monthly time step.

• Future Hydro conditions are predicted using probabilistic methods

30000
Summary of Generation PSPP
294
293
25000
256
163
5617
5963 Other
5471
20000 5248 Renewable
4799
Energy/GWh

4590
4209 5466
15000 2649 3470
3777
5163
4877 Large Hydro
2288 4560
4948
4713 4764 3563
4599 5089 3766
4773 5174 3421
3396
10000 3766 Other
3415 3679
3127 3556 3784 3409 Thermal
5000 10250 10726
8978 9276
5429 5193 5532 5961 6794 7039 7555 Coal Thermal
0
2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025 2026 2027 2028
28
Year
 Operational Study
Short Term Dispatch Analysis (NCP Software)
2022 High Wind period Week Day

3500 Large hydro

Other oil

3000 SC/CC GT
Wind_P
Wind_N
2500
Wind_M
Wind_E
2000 Wind_H
MW

Solar_K
1500 Solar_H
Mini_Hydro

1000 Biomass
TPCL2
TPCL1
500
LVPS3
LVPS2
0 LVPS1
Demand
Time (30 Minutes) 29
 ANALYSIS OF
BASE CASE PLAN
DISPATCHABLE CAPACITY AT CRITICAL PERIOD
BASE CASE
12000

Total Installed Capacity

10000
Total Dispatchable Capacity at the Critical Period

Demand
8000
Capacity (MW)

6000

4000

2000

0
 SENSITIVITY & SCENARIO STUDIES
Robustness of the economically optimized plan was Investigated by
analyzing its sensitivity to changes in the key input parameters.
Scenario/Sensitivity Study Remarks
Scenarios
Reference Case No future ORE
Fuel Diversification
Future Coal Power Development Permitted up to 1800 MW
No Future Coal Power Development Permitted
Energy Mix with Nuclear
Sensitivities on Base Case
Demand Variation
High Demand 1% higher
Low Demand 1% lower
Discount Rate Variation
High Discount 15%
Low Discount 3%
Based on IEA forecast
Fuel Price Escalation
WEO 2016

Power system planners are expected to predict the future and they have to provide
decision makers with information that would facilitate making sound decisions.
32
COMPARISON OF ENERGY SHARE IN 2037

1% 11% 2% 10% 1% 10%

15% 14%
4% 26%
21% Future Coal Power 21%
Reference Base Case Development
Limited to
Case 1800 MW

53% 41%
69%

Major Hydro
2%
11% 10% ORE
19%
Thermal - Coal
No Future 20% 21%
Coal Power Energy Mix
Thermal - Oil
56% Development 14% with
Nuclear Thermal - LNG
13%
Nuclear
34%
PSPP
COMPARISON OF CAPACITY SHARE IN 2037
6% 5% 6%
15% 4% 15%
6% 18%
13%

16% 4% 20%
7% Future Coal Power
Reference Case Base Case Development
Limited to
31%
1800 MW 32%

32%
23%
47%

10%
4% Major Hydro
15% 15%
6% ORE
4%
No Future Thermal - Coal
Energy Mix
42% Coal Power
13% with Nuclear Thermal - LNG
Development
31% 32% Thermal - Oil

PSPP
20%
8%
Nuclear
INVESTMENT ANALYSIS
 SENSITIVITY ANALYSIS
Investment Plan for Base Case
700 Local cost
650
Foreign cost
600
550
Construction Cost (USD million)

500
450
400
350
300
250
200
150
100
50
0
2018

2019

2020

2021

2022

2023

2024

2025

2026

2027

2028

2029

2030

2031

2032

2033

2034

2035

2036
Year

Annual Cost Comparison USD Million

3000.0
Total Annual Cost (USD million)

2500.0

2000.0

1500.0

1000.0
Base Case
500.0
No Future Coal Power Development Permitted
Scenario
0.0
2018

2019

2020

2021

2022

2023

2024

2025

2026

2027

2028

2029

2030

2031

2032

2033

2034

2035

2036

2037
Year 36
ENVIRONMENTAL IMPACT ANALYSIS
 Comparison of SOx, NOx, PM & CO2 Emissions
Base Case Scenario
Reference Scenario
Future Coal Power Development Limited to 1800MW Scenario 7.0
30
No Future Coal Power Development Scenario
Energy Mix with Nuclear Scenario 6.0
25

Particulate Matter (1000 tons)

5.0
20
CO2 (Million tons)

4.0
15
3.0
10
2.0

5 1.0

- 0.0

2018

2020

2022

2024

2026

2028

2030

2032

2034

2036
2018

2020

2022

2024

2026

2028

2030

2032

2034

2036
Year
Year

100 45
90 40
80 35
70
NOx (1000 tons)

30
SO2 (1000 tons)

60
25
50
20
40
15
30
10
20
5
10
0
0
2018

2020

2022

2024

2026

2028

2030

2032

2034

2036
2018

2020

2022

2024

2026

2028

2030

2032

2034

2036

Year Year
 Cost Impacts of CO2 Emission Reductions
PV Cost USD mil

CO2 kT Compared with Reference Case

18,000 300,000
16,000 14.00
250,000
14,000 12.00 11.48

12,000 200,000 9.74

CO2 Emission (kT)

10.00
Cost (Mil US$)

8.28

USD / CO2 Ton

10,000
150,000 8.00
8,000
6.00
6,000 100,000
3.72
4,000 4.00
50,000
2,000 2.00
- -
0.00
 ENVIRONMENTAL ASPECTS
Comparison of CO2 Emissions from Fuel Combustion
IEA CO2 Emissions from Fuel Combustion (2016 Edition)- 2014 data
kg CO2/2010 US$ of
kg CO2/2010 US$ of Tons of CO2 per Total CO2 Emissions
Country GDP Adjusted to
GDP Capita (Million tons)
PPP
Sri Lanka 0.23 0.08 0.81 16.7
Pakistan 0.67 0.17 0.74 137.4
India 0.92 0.29 1.56 2019.7
Indonesia 0.46 0.17 1.72 436.5
Thailand 0.64 0.24 3.6 243.5
China 1.08 0.53 6.66 9134.9
France 0.10 0.17 4.32 285.7
Japan 0.21 0.27 9.35 1188.6
Germany 0.20 0.21 8.93 723.3
Switzerland 0.06 0.09 4.61 37.7
USA 0.32 0.32 16.22 5176.2
Brazil 0.20 0.16 2.31 476
Australia 0.26 0.36 15.81 373.8
World 0.44 0.32 4.47 32381
Electricity and heat
production Total CO2 Emissions (Million tons) from Electricity –
Actual and Predicted in Scenarios
10%
Other energy ind.
own use
5% 2014 2025 2030 2037
No Future
42%
24% Manufacturing Coal 6.79 5.05 7.68 12.08
48% 41%
industries and
Coal Limited
19% construction 6%
5%
Transport 1800 MW 6.79 6.41 10.72 17.05
0%

Base Case 6.79 7.41 11.32 19.25

Other sectors 40
World Sri Lanka Reference 6.79 9.33 13.55 24.20
CONTINGENCY ANALYSIS
Analysis of the impact of both controllable and uncontrollable risk
events, which could lead to inadequacy of supply to meet the capacity
and energy demand in immediate future years from 2018 to 2022.
1. Variation in Hydrology
2. Variation in Demand
3. Delays in implementation of Power Plants
4. Long period outage of a Major Power Plant

Single occurrence of these risk events were considered at first and then
simultaneous occurrence of several events were analysed to identify the
short term energy and capacity shortage.
 INDC Submitted to UNFCCC
• DETERMINATION OF INDC’s
Business As Usual (BAU) :
Only existing NCRE power plants as at 1st January 2015 were included without
committed major hydro developments.
Reference Case :
Only existing NCRE power plants as at 1st January 2015 were included.
Base Case:
20% Energy share from Non-Conventional Renewable Energy (NCRE) considered
from 2020 onwards.
500
-
2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025
(500) 4% national
commitment
(1,000)
CO2 /1000 tons

(1,500)
(2,000)
16% from INDC
(2,500) Emission reduction from INDC
(3,000)
Emission reduction from National
(3,500)
Commitment 42
(4,000)
NDC PRESENT STATUS
Governments agreed a long-term goal of keeping the increase in global average
temperature to well below 2°C above pre-industrial levels and to aim to limit the increase
to 1.5°C

Sri Lanka ratified in September 2016

Energy Sector INDCs which was prepared based on LTGEP 2015-2034 stated that Sri Lanka
expects 4% unconditional and 16% conditional reduction of greenhouse gas emissions
with compared to Reference scenario in 2030

30

25

20
CO2 (Million tons)

15

10

-
2018

2019

2020

2021

2022

2023

2024

2025

2026

2027

2028

2029

2030

2031

2032

2033

2034

2035

2036

2037
Year
 RECOMMENDATIONS FOR VARIABLE RENEWABLE ENERGY
INTEGRATION
• Day ahead, hourly basis Wind and Solar PV energy forecasting system
• 24 hour (round the clock), Renewable Energy Desk
Technical assistance expected from financing agencies to develop
Renewable Energy Desk
• Variable Renewable Energy (VRE) curtailment rights to system operator
Compensation mechanism has to be studied to future VRE plants.
• Planned network strengthening projects must be completed as
scheduled.
• Future base load power plants should be designed to de-load in order
to keep the VRE curtailment at a minimum level.
• The ORE locations should be prioritized based on the plant factors,
availability and cost of transmission network and developed accordingly
• If the proposed conventional plants are not commissioned as scheduled,
the VRE addition in the plan has to be revised accordingly. Thus it is
proposed to review this planning methodology once in two years.
44
 SRI LANKAN CONTEXT IN CLIMATE CHANGE
TOWARDS LOW CARBON DEVELOPMENT STRATEGY
• Amendment of National Energy Policy to absorb more ORE

• Nationally Determined Contributions (NDCs)

• Contribution from Renewable Energy

• Clean Development Mechanism

• Carbon Partnership Facility

• Fuel Quality Road Map

• Loss Reduction in Transmission & Distribution Network

• Demand Side Management & Energy Conservation

45
THANK YOU

46