PHASE 8 - PRESENT THE RESULTS OF THE PROBLEMS PROPOSED IN THE

FINAL PROJECT

PRESENTED BY:
Sandra Nataly Meneses de la Cruz CC.1089486576
Juan G. Abella Nieto CC.14799184
Felipe Andrés Navarro CC. 14799442
Angie Paola Botina Cañizares CC. 1085331698

Group: 212066_22

PRESENTED TO:
Paula Andrea Carvajal
Tutor

UNIVERSIDAD NACIONAL ABIERTA Y A DISTANCIA

OCTUBER 2018
COLOMBIA
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INTRODUCTION

This final project is carried out emphatically so that the students belonging
to the group 22 carry out activities that allow them to differentiate the algorithms,
their characteristics and applications in different environments of risk and / or
uncertainty, for the decision making and the optimization of the expected results,
all this is achieved through the development of different exercises set out in the
learning guide so that the participants of the group interact and receive the
information corresponding to complete final project.
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Problem 1. DECISION TREES, EVPI and EVMI

A company dedicated to manufacturing different turned parts must decide
whether to manufacture a new product at its main plant, or if it buys it from an
outside supplier. The profits depend on the demand of the product. Table 10
shows projected profits, in millions of pesos.
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Screen shots solution exercises with the WINQSB that performed in the
practical learning environment.
EXERCISE 1:
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Problem 2. Laplace, Wald or pessimistic, optimistic, Hurwicz and

Savage criteria (Profit Matrix):

The company is thinking of acquiring machinery with new technology to

carry out its workshop work. The purchase will be decided according to several
alternatives presented by the seller (adaptability), this to facilitate the
implementation in the workshop. The decision variables presented below
represent the cost of adaptation that will arise after acquiring the machinery and
training the workers in their use. Table 11 shows the costs in millions of currency
units per technology. Determine the optimal size of the premises to be purchased,
using the methods of LAPLACE, WALD, HURWICZ AND SAVAGE. Hurwicz
Alpha 0,70.

Event
Alternative Does not fit Fits acceptably Fits successfully Fits well
Technology 1 780 810 818 860
Technology 2 880 820 855 820
Technology 3 830 875 878 900
Technology 4 630 872 812 910
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Problem 3. Game Theory method:

Graphical solutions are only applicable to games in which at least one of

the players has only two strategies. Consider the following 2 x n game. Find the
saddle point of the data given below in table 12 for players A and B.
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Problem 4. Decision in uncertainty:

In order to determine the decision conditions in the market, the Game Theory will be used, using the graphical solution of the
type (2 x N) and (2 x M) to estimate the strategy and value of the game for the following data:
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Problem 5. Markov decision problem:

An insurance company charges its customers according to their accident history. If you have not had
accidents the last two years are charged US $ 6000 (State 1); If you have had an accident in each of the last two
years you will be charged $ 6300 (State 2). If you had accidents the first of the last two years US $ 5800 (State 3).
The probabilities of the state according to historical data of three years are:

STATES E1 E2 E3
E1 0,18 0,42 0,40
E2 0,35 0,25 0,40
E3 0,20 0,15 0,65
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PANTALLAZO MARKOV CHAIN, IN EXCEL FORMAT.

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Problem 6. Markov chains (Initial state multiplication):

Suppose you get 6 types of Jeans brands in the Colombian market: Brand 1,
Brand 2, Brand 3, Brand 4, Brand 5 and Brand 6. The following table shows the
odds that you continue to use the same brand or change it. At present, brand,
have the following percentages in market share respectively (19%, 18%, 17%,
15%, 19% y 12%) during week 4.

Table 4. Probabilities of change and permanence in the brand

STATE BRAND 1 BRAND 2 BRAND 3 BRAND 4 BRAND 5 BRAND 6
BRAND 1 0,21 0,18 0,13 0,23 0,15 0,1
BRAND 2 0,13 0,16 0,2 0,14 0,19 0,18
BRAND 3 0,15 0,14 0,17 0,16 0,15 0,23
BRAND 4 0,16 0,16 0,15 0,19 0,17 0,17
BRAND 5 0,16 0,19 0,13 0,14 0,16 0,22
BRAND 6 0,15 0,19 0,16 0,18 0,15 0,17

STATE BRAND 1 BRAND 2 BRAND 3 BRAND 4 BRAND 5 BRAND 6

BRAND 1 21% 18% 13% 23% 15% 10%
BRAND 2 13% 16% 20% 14% 19% 18%
BRAND 3 15% 14% 17% 16% 15% 23%
BRAND 4 16% 16% 15% 19% 17% 17%
BRAND 5 16% 19% 13% 14% 16% 22%
BRAND 6 15% 19% 16% 18% 15% 17%

BRAND 1 BRAND 2 BRAND 3 BRAND 4 BRAND 5 BRAND 6

21% 18% 13% 23% 15% 10%
13% 16% 20% 14% 19% 18%
E4 19% 18% 17% 15% 19% 12% 15% 14% 17% 16% 15% 23%
16% 16% 15% 19% 17% 17%
16% 19% 13% 14% 16% 22%
15% 19% 16% 18% 15% 17%

21% 18% 13% 23% 15% 10%

13% 16% 20% 14% 19% 18%
E5 16,12% 16,97% 15,60% 17,28% 16,21% 17,82% 15% 14% 17% 16% 15% 23%
16% 16% 15% 19% 17% 17%
16% 19% 13% 14% 16% 22%
15% 19% 16% 18% 15% 17%

21% 18% 13% 23% 15% 10%

13% 16% 20% 14% 19% 18%
E6 15,96% 17,03% 15,69% 17,34% 16,19% 17,79% 15% 14% 17% 16% 15% 23%
16% 16% 15% 19% 17% 17%
16% 19% 13% 14% 16% 22%
15% 19% 16% 18% 15% 17%

21% 18% 13% 23% 15% 10%

13% 16% 20% 14% 19% 18%
E7 15,95% 17,02% 15,70% 17,33% 16,19% 17,80% 15% 14% 17% 16% 15% 23%
16% 16% 15% 19% 17% 17%
16% 19% 13% 14% 16% 22%
15% 19% 16% 18% 15% 17%
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 Of the six brands of jeans in the Colombian market, the one that is more
likely to continue is brand 6, since its market is a lot of growth.
 The brands 1, 2, 3 and 5 have a high probability of changing them, since
their participation in the Colombian market decreases, but a deplorable
decrease has not yet been seen.
 From the seventh week it can be seen that the participation in the market
of the four jeans brands is maintained with the percentage data without
any change, neither increases nor falls of participation in the market.
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CONCLUSIONS WITH WHAT IS STATED IN THE E-PORTFOLIO.

In the Phase 8, We Solved problems by applying the algorithms of the

Units 1, 2, and 3, We Differentiate the algorithms, their characteristics and
application in different risk environments and/or uncertainty, for the taking of
decisions and the optimization of the expected results. (Juan abella)

We got to understand the methods, operations and definitions on the

different techniques of application in the decisions that depend on the type and
quality of the information obtained. (Felipe Navarro)

After carrying out the development of the different phases, we can

conclude that diagram representation of a given problem can take different forms
and can be an invaluable aid in gathering and displaying the particular problem
or decision parameters. A basic knowledge of theories of probabilities and
statistics will help in the graphic presentation of this information. (Angie Botina)

This was a great job in which the use of office tools was shown and the
understanding of the whole process developed, I assume that we are at a good
level for making decisions and strategies for any case, and we can say that we
already have the fundamental bases for it. (Sandra Meneses)
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BIBLIOGRAPHY

Sanderson, C. (2006). Analytical Models for Decision Making.

New York, USA: McGraw-Hill Education Editorial. Retrieved from:
http://bibliotecavirtual.unad.edu.co:2051/login.aspx?direct=true&db
=nlebk&AN=234098&lang=es&site=eds-live

Gilboa, I. (2001). A Theory of Case-Based Decisions. Camdridge,

UK: Cambridge University Press Editorial. Retrieved from:
http://bibliotecavirtual.unad.edu.co:2051/login.aspx?direct=true&db
=nlebk&AN=72982&lang=es&site=eds-live

Rokach, L. (2008). Data Mining With Decision Trees: Theory

And Applications, Bern, Switzerland: H. Bunke, University Bern,
Switzerland. Retrieved from:
http://bibliotecavirtual.unad.edu.co:2051/login.aspx?direct=true&db
=nlebk&AN=236037&lang=es&site=eds-live

Joyce, J. (1999). The Foundations of Causal Decision Theory. Camdridge,

UK: Cambridge University Press Editorial. Retrieved
from http://bibliotecavirtual.unad.edu.co:2051/login.aspx?direct=true&db=nlebk
&AN=228167&lang=es&site=eds-live

Prisner, E. (2014). Game Theory. Washington, District of Columbia, USA:

Mathematical Association of America Editorial. Retrieved
from http://bibliotecavirtual.unad.edu.co:2051/login.aspx?direct=true&db=nlebk
&AN=800654&lang=es&site=eds-live
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Abdi, M. (2003). A design strategy for reconfigurable manufacturing
systems (RMSs) using analytical hierarchical process (AHP): a case study:
Manchester, UK: International Journal of Production Research. Retrieved
from http://bibliotecavirtual.unad.edu.co:2051/login.aspx?direct=true&db=buh&A
N=10149095&lang=es&site=eds-live