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ABSTRACT
In this paper, the study of the trend of Bombay Stock Exchange (BSE) & Shanghai Stock
Exchange Composite (SSEC) Market return. To study the Investor Decision making for
investment in of Bombay Stock Exchange (BSE) & Shanghai Stock Exchange Composite
(SSEC) and the relationship between of Bombay Stock Exchange (BSE) & Shanghai Stock
Exchange Composite (SSEC) market return. Finally, a comparative analysis has been
presented; there are positive & direct correlations between the BSE & SSEC. At the time of
2012-2014 the market shows bearish behavior, But BSE return still indicating positive result.
In the 2015 the Chinese index SSEC reach at the boom level and showing bull market or
maximum return. This phase is also known as a bubble in Chinese market or SSEC index. The
Economy of Chinese and Indian are too much different but there indices are correlated and
behave approximately in same direction.
INTRODUCTION
A stock exchange or bourse is an exchange where stock brokers and traders can buy and/or sell
stocks (also called shares), bonds and other securities stock exchanges may also provide
facilities for issue and redemption of securities and other financial instruments, and capital
events including the payment of income and dividends Securities traded on a stock exchange
include stock issued by listed companies, unit trusts, derivatives, pooled investment products
and bonds Stock exchanges often function as "continuous auction" markets, with buyers and
sellers consummating transactions at a central location, such as the floor of the exchange.
To be able to trade a security on a certain stock exchange, it must be listed there. Usually, there
is a central location at least for record keeping, but trade is increasingly less linked to such a
physical place, as modern markets use electronic networks, which gives those advantages of
increased speed and reduced cost of transactions. Trade on an exchange is restricted to brokers
who are members of the exchange. In recent years, various other trading venues, such as
electronic communication networks, alternative trading system and “dark pools” have taken
much of the trading activity away from traditional stock exchanges. The initial public offering
of stocks and bonds to investors is by definition done in the primary market and subsequent
trading is done in the secondary market. A stock exchange is often the most important
component of a stock market. Supply and demand in stock markets are driven by various
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International Journal of Research & Development in
Technology and Management Science –Kailash
Volume - 22| Issue 6 | 2016 | ISBN - 1-63102-468-X
European Article Number [EAN] - 978-1-63-102468-9
editor.ijrdtm@rtmonline.in | http://journal.rtmonline.in
Section 2 briefly issues the past history. In section 3 we mainly introduce the methodology we
have taken here to study the fact. Section 4 gives some related experimental result and
discussions. And finally the conclusion is introduced in section 5.
HISTORY
BSE Ltd, the first ever stock exchange in Asia established in 1875 and the first in the country
to be granted permanent recognition under the Securities Contract Regulation Act, 1956, has
had an interesting rise to prominence over the past 140 years. While BSE Ltd is now
synonymous with Dalal Street, it was not always so. The first venue of the earliest stock broker
meetings in the 1850s was in rather natural environs - under banyan trees - in front of the Town
Hall, where Horniman Circle is now situated. A decade later, the brokers moved their venue to
another set of foliage, this time under banyan trees at the junction of Meadows Street and what
is now called Mahatma Gandhi Road. As the number of brokers increased, they had to shift
from place to place, but they always overflowed to the streets. At last, in 1874, the brokers
found a permanent place, and one that they could, quite literally, call their own.
The journey of BSE Ltd. is as eventful and interesting as the history of India's securities
market. In fact, as India's biggest bourse in terms of listed companies and market capitalization,
almost every leading corporate in India has sourced BSE Ltd. services in raising capital and is
listed with BSE Ltd. Even in terms of an orderly growth, much before the actual legislations
were enacted, BSE Ltd. had formulated a comprehensive set of Rules and Regulations for the
securities market.
BSE is Asia's first & the Fastest Stock Exchange in world with the speed of 6 micro seconds
and one of India's leading exchange groups. Over the past 140 years, BSE has facilitated the
growth of the Indian corporate sector by providing it an efficient capital-raising platform.
Popularly known as BSE, the bourse was established as "The Native Share & Stock Brokers'
Association" in 1875. BSE is a corporatized and demutualized entity, with a broad shareholder-
base which includes two leading global exchanges, Deutsche Bourse and Singapore Exchange
as strategic partners. BSE provides an efficient and transparent market for trading in equity,
debt instruments, derivatives, mutual funds. It also has a platform for trading in equities of
small-and-medium enterprises (SME). As the first stock exchange in Asia and the pioneer of
securities transaction business, BSE prides itself on being at the forefront of bringing
innovations to the Indian capital markets while creating diverse investment opportunities for
the investor community in India throughout its long history.
SHANGHAI STOCK EXCHANGE COMPOSITE (SSEC)
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International Journal of Research & Development in
Technology and Management Science –Kailash
Volume - 22| Issue 6 | 2016 | ISBN - 1-63102-468-X
European Article Number [EAN] - 978-1-63-102468-9
editor.ijrdtm@rtmonline.in | http://journal.rtmonline.in
Published by:
Page 40
International Journal of Research & Development in
Technology and Management Science –Kailash
Volume - 22| Issue 6 | 2016 | ISBN - 1-63102-468-X
European Article Number [EAN] - 978-1-63-102468-9
editor.ijrdtm@rtmonline.in | http://journal.rtmonline.in
METHODOLOGY
A. EXPLORATORY RESEARCH
The study has been exploratory in nature. Exploratory research is often occurs before we know
enough to make conceptual distinctions of posit an explanatory relationship. It helps in
determine the best research design data collection method and selection of subject. An
exploratory design is conducted about a research problem when there are few or no earlier
studies to refer to or rely upon to predict an outcome. The focus is on gaining insights and
familiarity for later investigation or undertaken when research problems are in a preliminary
stage of investigation. Exploratory designs are often used to establish an understanding of how
best to proceed in studying an issue or what methodology would effectively apply to gathering
information about the issue.
Secondary method: The data for this study will be collected from various annual reports,
articles, magazines, newspapers and web portals.
DATA ANALYSIS
The objectives of the study will be reached using the methods of statistical analysis, technical
analysis and through investigation of secondary data. For this correlation will be used as the
technique for data analysis. Data has been analyzed and correlation relationship has been
determines based on 5years index data and exchange rates.
TABLE I. BSE & SSEC Five year index data
Index value Exchange rates
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International Journal of Research & Development in
Technology and Management Science –Kailash
Volume - 22| Issue 6 | 2016 | ISBN - 1-63102-468-X
European Article Number [EAN] - 978-1-63-102468-9
editor.ijrdtm@rtmonline.in | http://journal.rtmonline.in
Trend analysis is basically the study of past and historical pattern .The movement in trend is
showing the ups and downs in pattern. The study of pattern is help to analyze the behavior of
factor that is, if the pattern showing the ups behavior than it means it is the BULLISH market
period. But if the pattern showing the down behavior than it means it is the BEARISH market
period. In the share market, trend analysis help to measure the pattern movement. In there we
analyze the past 6 year trend movement of Bombay stock exchange (BSE). We have the 6
year’s data of Bombay stock exchange index and calculate the every year return and plot the
line chart of the Bombay stock exchange 6 years return data. The 6 years return data are given
below in the table.
Trend analysis is basically the study of past and historical pattern .The movement in trend is
showing the ups and downs in pattern. The study of pattern is help to analyze the behavior of
factor that is, if the pattern showing the ups behavior than it means it is the BULLISH market
period. But if the pattern showing the down behavior than it means it is the BEARISH market
period. In the share market, trend analysis help to measure the pattern movement. In there we
analyze the past 6 year trend movement of Shanghai stock exchange composite (SSEC). We
have the 6 year’s data of Shanghai stock exchange composite (SSEC) index and we have
calculated the every year return. And plot the line chart of the Shanghai stock exchange
composite (SSEC) 6 years return data. The 6 years return data are given below in the table.
TABLE II. Standard Deviation of BSE & SSEC
Year Adjusted close Return from Adjusted close Return from
value(opening BSE value(opening SSEC
value) value)
In the Table II we have given the data of Bombay stock exchange year, index, BSE & SSEC
return and standard deviation of return. Here, the values of standard deviation are
23.68952143% and 31.04405071% is showing that is too much variation in the Bombay stock
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International Journal of Research & Development in
Technology and Management Science –Kailash
Volume - 22| Issue 6 | 2016 | ISBN - 1-63102-468-X
European Article Number [EAN] - 978-1-63-102468-9
editor.ijrdtm@rtmonline.in | http://journal.rtmonline.in
a) b)
In the line chart figure 1(a) we can see that at the starting of 2012 is the bearish market period.
And it goes ups or bullish in 2013. But after 2013 due variability it goes again down and
bearish. And it again shows the same behavior in 2014, 2015 and 2016. In the bearish phase the
return from index is getting low and negative and in the bullish it gets high and positive. So the
diagram is showing the pattern, movement of BSE return throw the line chart analysis. And
that is showing the significance changes in BSE market return. Similarly, in line chart figure
1(b) we can see that at the starting of 2012 is the bearish market period. And it goes ups or
bullish in 2013. But after 2013 due variability it goes again down and bearish. And it again
shows the same behavior in 2014, 2015 and 2016. In the bearish phase the return from index is
getting low and negative and in the bullish it gets high and positive. So the diagram is showing
the pattern, movement of SSEC return throw the line chart analysis. And that is showing the
significance changes in SSEC market return.
In the Investor decision making for investment. The investor has to make a decision for
investing the fund in the given stock exchanges BSE and SSEC. The investors analyzes the five
year annual return from stock exchange and then check the performance return in each stock
exchange and invests in the optimum performance stock exchange index.
In there we assume that we have an investor Mr. X from USA. He was invested an amount of
$10000 in both stock exchange at the stating of 2011 for the purpose analyzing the
performance of stock exchanges.
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International Journal of Research & Development in
Technology and Management Science –Kailash
Volume - 22| Issue 6 | 2016 | ISBN - 1-63102-468-X
European Article Number [EAN] - 978-1-63-102468-9
editor.ijrdtm@rtmonline.in | http://journal.rtmonline.in
In there we have taken the six year data of SSEC index value and calculate annual return on the
basis of it. And we also take the exchange rate data of Yuan (Chinese currency) and Dollar
(USA currency). And the investor invests the $10000 annually into the market for each year.
For the Analysis of SSEC index performance. The following scenario given for the investor
investment process:
61041.19598 -1004.804018
In the table III starting process, we have the given the six year data of SSEC close value. On
the basis of it we calculate the five year expected return value of SSEC. And we have also
market currency exchange rate of Yuan in the context of Dollar for six years. In the table IV we
assume the USA investor invest the amount of $10000 every year for the year. So on the basis
of exchange rate we convert the amount of Dollar (foreign currency) into the Chinese currency
(domestic currency) Yuan for each year. On the basis of calculated each year market return of
the SSEC index, we can calculate the amount of the earnings in end of the every years. And
measure the profit & loss in term of Chinese Yuan.
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International Journal of Research & Development in
Technology and Management Science –Kailash
Volume - 22| Issue 6 | 2016 | ISBN - 1-63102-468-X
European Article Number [EAN] - 978-1-63-102468-9
editor.ijrdtm@rtmonline.in | http://journal.rtmonline.in
NA NA
8088.237241 -1911.762759
10603.64575 603.6457524
15489.08028 5489.080281
9383.446471 -616.5535293
In the table V after the getting return in Yuan, We convert the Chinese Yuan into the USA
Dollar and compare with invested amount or the amount invested in starting of the year and
return getting after the every year. After this comparison we analyze and measure the profit and
loss for every year. We have also the line chart diagram of investor investment decision
making in SSEC index at above in figure 2. In the figure 2 we can see that at the end of the
2011 or starting of 2012 the USA investor is suffering or getting loss from investing in SSEC
by $ -1911.7628, but in the end of the 2012 or starting of 2013 it get earn profit of amount of
$603.6457524, In the end of the 2013 or starting of 2014 it again goes down and bear the loss.
But there is significance boom change in the end of 2014 or starting of 2015, the market goes
up and investor enjoys the return of $5489.080281 on investing of amount of $10000. This is
the bubble situation in Chinese economy. And the effect of it’s the Chinese economy get crash
down in the end of 2015 or starting of 2016 by $-616.5535293, and the market return goes into
the negative.
In there we take the six year data of BSE index value and calculate annual return on the basis
of it. And we have also taken the exchange rate data of Rupee (Indian currency) and Dollar
(USA currency). And the investor invests the $10000 annually into the market for each year.
For the Analysis of BSE index performance. The following scenario has given for the investor
investment process.
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International Journal of Research & Development in
Technology and Management Science –Kailash
Volume - 22| Issue 6 | 2016 | ISBN - 1-63102-468-X
European Article Number [EAN] - 978-1-63-102468-9
editor.ijrdtm@rtmonline.in | http://journal.rtmonline.in
10000 446700
2013 19714.24023 27.04177062 54.832
581794.9038 -51418.09624
In the table VII we assume the USA investor invest the amount of $10000 every year for the
year. So on the basis of exchange rate we convert the amount of Dollar (Foreign currency) into
the Indian currency (domestic currency) Rupee for each year. On the basis of calculated each
year market return of the BSE index, we can calculate the amount of the earnings in end of the
every years. And measure the profit & loss in term of Indian Rupee.
year
6325.535755 -3674.464245
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International Journal of Research & Development in
Technology and Management Science –Kailash
Volume - 22| Issue 6 | 2016 | ISBN - 1-63102-468-X
European Article Number [EAN] - 978-1-63-102468-9
editor.ijrdtm@rtmonline.in | http://journal.rtmonline.in
9493.869824 -506.1301762
12902.58611 2902.586113
8791.364256 -1208.635744
In the table VIII after the getting return in Rupee, we convert the Indian Rupee into the USA
Dollar. And compare with invested amount or the amount invested in starting of the year and
return getting after the every year. After this comparison we analyze and measure the profit and
loss for every year. We have also the line chart diagram of investor investment decision
making in BSE index at figure above. In the figure 3 we can see that at the end of the 2011 or
starting of 2012 the USA investor is suffering or getting loss from investing in BSE by $ -
3674.46424, but in the end of the 2012 or starting of 2013 it get earn profit of amount of
$2348.644532, In the end of the 2013 or starting of 2014 it again goes down and bear the loss.
But there is significance boom change in the end of 2014 or starting of 2015, the market goes
up and investor enjoys the return of $2902.586113 on investing of amount of $10000. This is
the effect of Chinese market bubble in Indian economy. And the effect of it’s the Chinese
economy get crash down in the end of 2015 or starting of 2016 by $-1208.635744, and the
market return goes into the negative.
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International Journal of Research & Development in
Technology and Management Science –Kailash
Volume - 22| Issue 6 | 2016 | ISBN - 1-63102-468-X
European Article Number [EAN] - 978-1-63-102468-9
editor.ijrdtm@rtmonline.in | http://journal.rtmonline.in
In the figure 4, there is showing the relationship market return of SSEC and BSE. We can see
in the figure that at the 2012 the market return of SSEC and BSE index is approximately same
or there is less difference between them. But at stage or period of 2013 the return from BSE
index is high as compare to SSEC index. But in the 2014 the return is getting decline and
SSEC index return gets negative at this stage of time but BSE index return is also get decline
but remains positive. That shows the return from Indian market is good as compare Chinese
market at this stage. But at the 2015 there is bubble create in Chinese market and the Chinese
economy depreciate the value of their currency, so it is rapidly increase the SSEC index value
and return. And effect of its Indian market is also increasing but not that much as compare to
Chinese market. So the effect of bubble the Chinese market crash in 2016 and index goes too
much down and the market return get negative. But Indian market more affected by it and goes
down and provides negative return to investors. So the outcome relationship among SSEC and
BSE index is positive and at the same direction. But Indian market is more stable during this
six year as compare to Chinese market, but return from the Chinese market is high during the
2014-2015. We have found the following results from the analysis which is listed below:
There are positive & direct correlations between the BSE & SSEC.
At the time of 2012-2014 the market shows bearish behavior, But BSE return still
indicating positive result.
In the 2015 the Chinese index SSEC reach at the boom level and showing bull market
or maximum return. This phase is also known as a bubble in Chinese market or SSEC
index. Because after this year and phase Chinese market collapse and provide negative
return.
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Page 48
International Journal of Research & Development in
Technology and Management Science –Kailash
Volume - 22| Issue 6 | 2016 | ISBN - 1-63102-468-X
European Article Number [EAN] - 978-1-63-102468-9
editor.ijrdtm@rtmonline.in | http://journal.rtmonline.in
CONCLUSION
In this research the conclusion is, “The Indian stock exchange BSE is performing well as
compare to Chinese stock exchange SSEC”. But due to high variation in the exchange rates of
Indian rupee, the return & earnings of foreign investor (assumed USA investor) is getting low
or negative, But in the Chinese stock market the return of SSEC is not too much well as
compare to BSE index but their fixed exchange rates helps to foreign investor (assumed USA
investor) to earn profit or positive return by the currency conversion.
REFERENCES
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