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• They cannot be
embarrassed further
by delaying the
launch
Events leading up to the
development of PERT
• Expected durations of activities were
largely unknown
• Project Planning and Control was initially
lacking on the Polaris project
• Actual costs and project durations in the
initial stages exceed estimates by as much
as 50%
Events leading up to the
development of PERT
• United States Department of Defense hires Booz
Allen Hamilton, to develop a Project
Management Technique for this project
• Booz Allen Hamilton invents the PERT technique
in 1958.
What is PERT?
• Technique to assist in project planning
when historical cost and time data are not
available or reliable
0 1 1 4 6 9 12 16 10 4 1 0 0 0
Frequency
36 38 40 42 44 46 48 50 52 54 56 58 60 62
Minutes to
Place
Histogram
Continuous Distribution
Normal Distributions
Normal Distribution
• Also called the “bell curve”
• Approximates many distributions we see in real
life and on construction sites
• It can be defined by a mean (μ) and a standard
deviation (σ)
• The normal probability density function is
characterized by a unit area, with a mean of 0
and a variance of 1
• F(x; μ, σ2) =
σ=
Standard Deviation
• μ 4 < μ1
1
4 • σ1 < σ2 < σ3
2. In 3 days?
Completing within 7 days
D F
A
C
Start Finish
B E G
Data table
Activity To Tm Tp
A 2 4 6
B 3 5 9
C 4 5 7
D 4 6 10
E 4 5 7
F 3 4 8
G 3 5 8
A4 D 6.33 F 4.5
0 0 0 0 0 0
0 0 0 0 0 0
0 0 0 0 0 0
A4 D 6.33 F 4.5
0 0 8.66 4.66 15 15 4.66 19.5
0
• X(variable)=20
• Z = (20-19.51)/1.28 = 0.38
• F(0.38) = 0.648
• Measurement of Performance
Execution
Monitoring Levels
Master Plan
Monthly Reports
&
EVM Parameters.
Macro Plan
Weekly Reports
& Activity Targets
Productivity
Micro Plan Trends
Daily Progress Reports
Productivity
Measurement
Execution & Improvement
Schedule Updating
1. Schedule durations and sequences often vary
from actual durations and sequences
– Subcontractors might use different methods
– Force Majeure events delay the project
– Etc
2. Participants would like to know how the
project is progressing
– Owners – When can I move in? How much should I
pay this month? What milestones have been met?
– Designers – When do I release drawings
– Subcontractors – when do I come on to the site?
Usefulness of frequent schedule
updating
• Current state of the project is always
known
• Updates provide a valuable record of
project status at a given time
– Can document changes, responsibilities and
delays throughout the project
– Useful during claims proceedings
• Schedule is a document that can be
followed
More on updates
• Schedules should be updated periodically
– Especially if a major event such as a logic
change occurs
• Updates should show
– New start and completion dates
– Completed activities
– Percentage progress on activities
Percentage Complete
Planned Vs. Actual
Updating a Precedence Diagram
0 3 3 9 6 8
A 3 B (4)6 D 2
0 0 3 3 0 9 7 1 9
9 9
0 0 3 6 Finish
Start E 3 9 0 9
0 0 0 4 1 7
6 8
0 4
C 2
F (3)4
7 1 9
3 3 7
Project Monitoring
Project Monitoring
Time over-run
Cost
Ideal
Curve
Time
What is your feedback on this project ?
● At 2 Weeks
● At 8 Weeks
50
ANSWER
Week 02 Bad ? Not really !!!
Week 08 Good ?
CSK
Optimistic ?!
Example -2.1
What is % Complete of this
Piping Package
Activity Total Est. Qty Qty ? % Complete
(M) In-place (M)
Small Bore 1063 197 ? ?
Piping
Total Piping ? ? ? ?
53
Example -2.2
What is % Complete of this
Piping Package
Activity Total Est. Qty Est. Act. % Complete
Qty (M) In-place (M) Man Hours Man Hours
Mhrs
Total Piping ? ? ? ?
Total ? ? ? ? ?
Piping
Total - - - 250+715
Piping 11,550 =965
?
– Wall construction
http://www.iceincusa.com/16CSP/content/4_ev/gifs/image1.gif (17.01.2007)
Example 1
Example 1
Transportation
10000 70000 (money)
Transportation
10000 7000 (money)
Transportation
10000 10000 (money)
Stages
Example 1
BCWS – Man-hours
Stages 1 2 3 Total
Excavation 300 700 0 1000
Transportation 0 500 800 1300 2300
Stage Total 300 1200 800
Cumulative Total 300 1500 2300
Project % Complete 0.13 0.65 1.0
Example 1
BCWS – Money
Stages 1 2 3 Total
Excavation 5000 5000 0 10000
Transportation 0 10000 7000 17000 27000
Stage Total 5000 15000 7000
Cumulative Total 5000 20000 27000
Project % Complete 0.185 0.741 1.0
Example 1
% Complete
EMh (Transportation)
% complete of project:
% complete = 250 / 2300
Total Man-hours = 2300
% complete = 0.11
Example 1
EMh (Transportation)
% complete of project:
% complete = 1730 / 2300
Total Man-hours = 2300
% complete = 0.752
Example 1
EMh (Transportation)
% complete of project:
% complete = 2235 / 2300
Total Man-hours = 2300
% complete = 0.97
Example 1
Earned Value
780 455 (man-hours)
Man-hours
% Complete
Stages 1 2 3
% complete
Excavation 0.25 0.95 1.0
Transportation 0 0.6 0.95
Earned Value (man-hours)
Excavation 250 700 50
Transportation 0 780 455
Stage total 250 1480 505
Excavation (cum) 250 950 1000
Transportation 0 780 1235
(cum)
Total cumulative 250 1730 2235
Project % complete 0.109 0.752 0.972
Example 1
Actual
450 1000 (man-hours)
Man-hours
ACWP
Stages 1 2 3
Excavation 400 500 100
Transportation 0 450 1000
Stage Total 400 950 1100
Cumulative Total 400 1350 2450
Example 1
Stages
Example 1
% Complete
EMh (Transportation)
% complete of project:
% complete = 2500 / 27000
Total Man-hours = 27000
% complete = 0.093
Example 1
EMh (Transportation)
% complete of project:
% complete = 19700 / 27000
Total Man-hours = 27000
% complete = 0.730
Example 1
EMh (Transportation)
% complete of project:
% complete = 26150 / 27000
Total Man-hours = 27000
% complete = 0.969
Example 1
Earned Value
10200 5950 (money)
Money
% Complete
Stages 1 2 3
% complete
Excavation 0.25 0.95 1.0
Transportation 0 0.6 0.95
Earned Value (money)
Excavation 2500 7000 500
Transportation 0 10200 5950
Stage total 2500 17200 6450
Excavation (cum) 2500 9500 10000
Transportation (cum) 0 10200 16150
Actual
8500 7500 (money)
Money
ACWP
Stages 1 2 3
Excavation 4500 6000 5000
Transportation 0 8500 7500
Stage Total 4500 14500 12500
Cumulative Total 4500 19000 31500
Example 1
Stages
Thank You