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• They cannot be
embarrassed further
by delaying the
launch
Events leading up to the
development of PERT
• Expected durations of activities were
largely unknown
• Project Planning and Control was initially
lacking on the Polaris project
• Actual costs and project durations in the
initial stages exceed estimates by as much
as 50%
Events leading up to the
development of PERT
• United States Department of Defense hires Booz
Allen Hamilton, to develop a Project
Management Technique for this project
• Booz Allen Hamilton invents the PERT technique
in 1958.
What is PERT?
• Technique to assist in project planning
when historical cost and time data are not
available or reliable
PERT CPM
• Assumes variability in • Assumes fixed (or
productivity rates and very mildly varying)
therefore variability in activity durations
activity times
• Milestone or event • Duration or activity
focused focused
• Probabilistic • Deterministic
calculations Calculations
How PERT works
• Since activity times are uncertain, PERT uses
three time estimates for an activity
– An optimistic duration (assumes high productivity) - To
– A pessimistic duration (low productivity) - Tp
• Not based on disasters etc
• Based more on late material delivery, equipment
breakdowns, bad weather etc
– A “most likely” duration - Tm
• Not the average of the Optimistic and Pessimistic durations
• It is the amount of time the activity will require most of the
time, if repeated many times
Probability Basics
0 1 1 4 6 9 12 16 10 4 1 0 0 0
Frequency
36 38 40 42 44 46 48 50 52 54 56 58 60 62
Minutes to
Place
Histogram
Continuous Distribution
Normal Distributions
Normal Distribution
• Also called the “bell curve”
• Approximates many distributions we see in real
life and on construction sites
• It can be defined by a mean (μ) and a standard
deviation (σ)
• The normal probability density function is
characterized by a unit area, with a mean of 0
and a variance of 1
• F(x; μ, σ2) =
σ=
Standard Deviation
• μ1 = μ2 = μ3
• μ 4 < μ1
1
4 • σ1 < σ2 < σ3
2. In 3 days?
Completing within 7 days
D F
A
C
Start Finish
B E G
Data table
Activity To Tm Tp
A 2 4 6
B 3 5 9
C 4 5 7
D 4 6 10
E 4 5 7
F 3 4 8
G 3 5 8
A4 D 6.33 F 4.5
0 0 0 0 0 0
0 0 0 0 0 0
0 0 0 0 0 0
A4 D 6.33 F 4.5
0 0 8.66 4.66 15 15 4.66 19.5
0
• X(variable)=20
• Z = (20-19.51)/1.28 = 0.38
• F(0.38) = 0.648